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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Console Water-to-Air Geothermal Heat Pump

Executive Summary Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past several years, the objective of this work is to produce national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover most of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub-hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. This measure models the conversion of an existing heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system to a series of “console” water-to-air heat pumps served by a ground heat exchanger. Console water-to-air geothermal heat pumps (GHP) are all-in-one packages that have no or minimal ductwork and serve individual spaces. Properly designed ground heat exchanger-coupled systems can offer benefits in energy efficiency relative to “conventional” HVAC systems, as well as facilitating beneficial electrification. Console GHPs can be coupled to a ground loop on the source side and can directly replace electric baseboard heaters or air-source packaged terminal heat pumps. Console GHPs can also bring in outdoor air for ventilation. This measure will be referred to throughout the document as the “Console GHP” upgrade.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1980

Studies on questions of design and construction of chain scraper conveyors

The basic behavior of mining crushed goods in chain scraper conveyors was examined using a special test stand. The characteristics resistance lines of the upper end-piece were determined for conveyor idle as a function of the determinative crushed good characteristics (granular structure, moisture content, type of goods) on the size of the conveyor load, on the conveyor construction and on the stopped time of the conveyor. Crushed goods with a narrow granular profile and sphere-like grains caused about 35% greater resistance than fine coal and raw coal with broad granular profile. For goods containing water more than 10% by weight, the solids friction retreated in favor of flow friction. The coefficient of resistance decreased considerably in the range of lower speeds and then increased with increasing conveyor speed. The conveyance of sandstone ore required about 280% greater specific drive than the conveyance of raw coal. Resistance coefficients for coal and raw coal showed no dependence on the design of the conveyor. Start-up of loaded conveyors after longer stop times was simulated and the specific break-loose force was determined.

Guder, H.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Epitaxial growth of Hg/1-x/Cd/x/Te by chemical vapor transport

The chemical vapor transport technique was applied for the first time to the growth of Hg(1-x)Cd(x)Te epitaxial layers on CdTe substrates using a preannealed source material of Hg(0.8)Cd(0.2)Te. The experiment took place in a pretreated ampoule loaded with source material, HgI2 transport agent, and substrate and sealed under a residual pressure of about 10 to the -5th torr. The temperature of the source region was 590 C and that of the deposition zone 535 C with a nearly sigmoidal shaped profile between the end temperatures. The change in appearance of the substrate surface during the experiment is described, and the structures of the surface of the Hg(1-x)Cd(x)Te layer and of the layer itself as revealed by Nomarski contrast illumination and Laue X-ray diffraction, respectively, are discussed.

Wiedemeier, H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Efficacy of Dried Plum to Countermeasure Simulated Spaceflight Exposure

Human exploration of the space environment has been a topic of interest for decades; however, the threat to physiological health posed by ionizing radiation and microgravity effects remains a concern. Previous research utilizing combined hindlimb unloading and irradiation to simulate spaceflight effects found that a dried plum diet can mitigate adverse effects of simulated spaceflight on skeletal health. Though the mechanism is not fully understood we believe this protective effect is due to its high antioxidant capacity and polyphenolic content. This study seeks to extend these findings to investigate if dried plum is an effective countermeasure in other tissues relating to aging and neurotoxicity. Male C57BL/6 J mice were assigned to one of eight groups (n = 10/group) and were fed either a controlled diet or dried plum diet, underwent normal loading or hindlimb unloading as well as exposure 2 Gy gamma radiation or sham exposure. At the end of the experiment, mice were euthanized, and RNA was extracted from brain and bone marrow tissue and PCR was employed to analyze significant changes in gene expression profiles. Analysis of five house-keeping genes revealed genes B2M (neurotoxicity) and GUSB (aging) to be the most stable genes across all treatments and were used to find the fold change within our genes of interest. Through this, and analysis via ANOVA, we were able to identify genes with significant altered expression levels within brain and bone marrow tissues related to neurotoxicity and aging. Considering previous research, we hypothesize that the dried plum diet’s antioxidative properties ameliorated the oxidative stress from irradiation and microgravity via altered levels of gene expression. Identified expression changes will provide insights into molecular mechanisms behind the observed protective effects. These findings present potential avenues for future interventions to alleviate negative impacts of spaceflight on astronaut health.

Faisal Ahmad↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Efficacy of Dried Plum to Counter Spaceflight Microgravity and Radiation

Human exploration of the space environment has been a topic of interest for decades; however, the threat to physiological health posed by ionizing radiation and microgravity effects remains a concern. Previous research utilizing combined hindlimb unloading and irradiation to simulate spaceflight effects found that a dried plum diet can mitigate adverse effects of simulated spaceflight on skeletal health. Though the mechanism is not fully understood we believe this protective effect is due to its high antioxidant capacity and polyphenolic content. This study seeks to extend these findings to investigate if dried plum is an effective countermeasure in other tissues relating to aging and neurotoxicity. Male C57BL/6 J mice were assigned to one of eight groups (n = 10/group) and were fed either a controlled diet or dried plum diet, underwent normal loading or hindlimb unloading as well as exposure 2 Gy gamma radiation or sham exposure. At the end of the experiment, mice were euthanized, and RNA was extracted from brain and bone marrow tissue and PCR was employed to analyze significant changes in gene expression profiles. Analysis of five house-keeping genes revealed genes B2M (neurotoxicity) and GUSB (aging) to be the most stable genes across all treatments and were used to find the fold change within our genes of interest. Through this, and analysis via ANOVA, we were able to identify genes with significant altered expression levels within brain and bone marrow tissues related to neurotoxicity and aging. Considering previous research, we hypothesize that the dried plum diet’s antioxidative properties ameliorated the oxidative stress from irradiation and microgravity via altered levels of gene expression. Identified expression changes will provide insights into molecular mechanisms behind the observed protective effects. These findings present potential avenues for future interventions to alleviate negative impacts of spaceflight on astronaut health.

Faisal Ahmad↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Virtual Battery Modeling of Uncertain Electrical Loads using Variational Autoencoder

Effective utilization of flexible loads for grid services, while satisfying end-user preferences and constraints, requires an accurate estimation of the aggregated predictive flexibility offered by the electrical loads. Recently, there have been efforts to quantify the predictive flexibility of thermostatic loads (e.g. residential air-conditioners, electric water-heaters) using the notion of virtual battery (VB), whose state evolution is governed by a first order dynamics including self-dissipation rate, and power and energy capacities. Identifying the VB model parameters for a collection of thermostatic loads, however, is challenging primarily due to uncertainties and lack of information regarding the end-user behavior, underlying device models and parameters. In this paper, we propose a \textit{variational autoencoder}-based deep learning algorithm to identify the parameters of the VB model. Using available sensors and meters data, the proposed algorithm generates not only point estimates of the VB parameters, but also confidence intervals around those values. Effectiveness of the proposed frameworks is demonstrated on a collection of electric water-heater loads, whose operation is driven by uncertain water usage profiles.

virtual battery, deep learning algorithms↗
DOE OSTI2021

Role of deformation twinning in fatigue of CrCoNi medium-entropy alloy at room temperature

Here cylindrical specimens of CrCoNi alloy with electropolished surfaces were subjected to constant total strain amplitude low cycle fatigue. The alloy exhibited an initial period of cyclic hardening followed by cyclic softening until failure occurred. At the end of hardening stage at the peak of cyclic stress, well-developed persistent slip markings (PSMs) consisting of extrusions and intrusions were associated with thin deformation twins. A sophisticated experimental workflow was designed to extract information from the surface and the bulk of tested material. A combination of SEM, EBSD, ECCI, FIB and HR-STEM was used to study the internal structure and the surface profiles around the deformation twins, which were produced during the initial period of cyclic loading. Furthermore, localized cyclic plastic strain and stress concentrations near deformation twins led not only to early, well-developed PSMs, but also to the activation of TWIP and TRIP plasticity even at low macroscopic stress amplitudes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1992

Variations in lithospheric thickness on Venus

Recent analyses of Magellan data have indicated many regions exhibiting topograhic flexure. On Venus, flexure is associated predominantly with coronae and the chasmata with Aphrodite Terra. Modeling of these flexural signatures allows the elastic and mechanical thickness of the lithosphere to be estimated. In areas where the lithosphere is flexed beyond its elastic limit the saturation moment provides information on the strength of the lithosphere. Modeling of 12 flexural features on Venus has indicated lithospheric thicknesses comparable with terrestrial values. This has important implications for the venusian heat budget. Flexure of a thin elastic plate due simultaneously to a line load on a continuous plate and a bending moment applied to the end of a broken plate is considered. The mean radius and regional topographic gradient are also included in the model. Features with a large radius of curvature were selected so that a two-dimensional approximation could be used. Comparisons with an axisymmetric model were made for some features to check the validity of the two-dimensional assumption. The best-fit elastic thickness was found for each profile crossing a given flexural feature. In addition, the surface stress and bending moment at the first zero crossing of each profile were also calculated. Flexural amplitudes and elastic thicknesses obtained for 12 features vary significantly. Three examples of the model fitting procedures are discussed.

Johnson, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Mount Protects Thin-Walled Glass or Ceramic Tubes from Large Thermal and Vibration Loads

The design allows for the low-stress mounting of fragile objects, like thin walled glass, by using particular ways of compensating, isolating, or releasing the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) differences between the mounted object and the mount itself. This mount profile is lower than true full kinematic mounting. Also, this approach enables accurate positioning of the component for electrical and optical interfaces. It avoids the higher and unpredictable stress issues that often result from potting the object. The mount has been built and tested to space-flight specifications, and has been used for fiber-optic, optical, and electrical interfaces for a spaceflight mission. This mount design is often metal and is slightly larger than the object to be mounted. The objects are optical or optical/electrical, and optical and/or electrical interfaces are required from the top and bottom. This requires the mount to be open at both ends, and for the object s position to be controlled. Thin inside inserts at the top and bottom contact the housing at defined lips, or edges, and hold the fragile object in the mount. The inserts can be customized to mimic the outer surface of the object, which further reduces stress. The inserts have the opposite CTE of the housing material, partially compensating for the CTE difference that causes thermal stress. A spring washer is inserted at one end to compensate for more CTE difference and to hold the object against the location edge of the mount for any optical position requirements. The spring also ensures that any fiber-optic or optic interface, which often requires some pressure to ensure a good interface, does not overstress the fragile object. The insert thickness, material, and spring washer size can be traded against each other to optimize the mount and stresses for various thermal and vibration load ranges and other mounting requirements. The alternate design uses two separate, unique features to reduce stress and hold the object. A release agent is applied to the inside surface of the mount just before the binding potting material is injected in the mount. This prevents the potting material from bonding to the mount, and thus prevents stress from being applied, at very low temperatures, to the fragile object being mounted. The potting material mixing and curing is temperature- and humidity-controlled. The mount has radial grooves cut in it that the potting material fills, thus controlling the vertical position of the mounted object. The design can easily be used for long and thin objects, short and wide objects, and any shape in between. The design s advantages are amplified for long and thin fragile objects. The general testing range was 45 to +45 C, but multiple mounts were successfully tested down to 60 and up to 50 C and the design can be adjusted for larger ranges.

Amato, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2014

Development and Implementation of a Hardware In-the-Loop Test Bed for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Control Algorithms

Successful prediction and management of battery life using prognostic algorithms through ground and flight tests is important for performance evaluation of electrical systems. This paper details the design of test beds suitable for replicating loading profiles that would be encountered in deployed electrical systems. The test bed data will be used to develop and validate prognostic algorithms for predicting battery discharge time and battery failure time. Online battery prognostic algorithms will enable health management strategies. The platform used for algorithm demonstration is the EDGE 540T electric unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The fully designed test beds developed and detailed in this paper can be used to conduct battery life tests by controlling current and recording voltage and temperature to develop a model that makes a prediction of end-of-charge and end-of-life of the system based on rapid state of health (SOH) assessment.

Battery Testbed↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preparation for and Performance of a Pseudomonas aeruginosa Biofilm Experiment On Board the International Space Station

Biofilms are a problem on Earth given their ability to degrade the materials upon which they grow and due to their relevance to infections. Remarkably, 65% and 80% of infections and chronic diseases on Earth are associated with biofilms, respectively. In space, these problems' impact is higher because the crew's lives and mission success depend on nominal operation of mechanical systems. Furthermore, the isolated confined environment nature of spaceflight may increase the rates of disease transmission. In the case of the International Space Station (ISS), biofilms are an identified problem on the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS), namely on the water processor assembly (WPA). In late 2019, the Space Biofilms experiment launched towards ISS to (i) characterize the mass, thickness, morphology, and gene expression of biofilms formed in space with respect to matched Earth controls, (ii) interrogate the expression of antimicrobial resistance genes, and (iii) test novel materials as potential biofilm control strategies for future ECLSS components. For this, 288 bacterial samples were prepared prior to the launch of the Northrop Grumman CRS-12 mission from NASA's Wallops Flight Facility. The samples were integrated into the spaceflight hardware, BioServe's Fluid Processing Apparatus (FPA) packed in sets of eight in Group Activation Packs (GAP). Half of these samples were activated and terminated on orbit by NASA astronauts Jessica Meir and Christina Koch, while the remaining half were processed equivalently on Earth. The spaceflight bacterial samples of Space Biofilms returned on board SpaceX' CRS-19 Dragon spacecraft, in early 2020. We here describe the test campaign implemented to verify the experiment design and confirm it would enable us to achieve the project's scientific goals. This campaign ended with the Experiment Verification Test (EVT), from which we here present example morphology and transcriptomic results. We describe in detail the sample preparation prior to flight, including cleaning and sterilization of the coupons of six materials (SS316, passivated-SS316, lubricant impregnated surface, catheter-grade silicone with and without a nanotopography, and cellulose membrane), loading and integration of growth media, bacterial inoculum, fixative and preservative to enable experiment termination on orbit. Additionally, we describe the performance of the experiment on board the ISS, including crew activities, use of assets, temperature profile, and experiment timeline; all leading to a successful spaceflight experiment.

Pamela Flores↗
NASA NTRS2023

Simulation of a Single Rotor and a Quadrotor Hovering in Full and Partial Ground Effect

With the development of urban air mobility, the safety of multirotor vehicle operations in proximity to vertiports must be assessed. This paper examines high-fidelity blade-resolved OVERFLOW simulations and medium-fidelity vortex particle–mesh simulations that capture the aerodynamics of a rotorcraft in full and partial ground effect. Results obtained with each CFD method are compared to verify the consistency of the models introduced in the latter, which include an immersed lifting line for the blade aerodynamics and various boundary conditions to account for solid surfaces such as ground and walls. Satisfactory agreement is obtained for the blade loads and rotorwash velocity profiles in the case of a single rotor, except for small discrepancies at the blade tip. Finally, a quadrotor air taxi is simulated to quantify the load imbalance when the vehicle hovers above a rooftop edge. The combined use of high- and medium-fidelity methods is envisioned to accelerate the workflow when a large number of configurations need to be tested.

HEC↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Dynamic Pricing Method to Manage the Impact of EV Charging on the Grid Using RL

This work addresses the challenge of managing electrical vehicle (EV) charging loads on distribution feeders with the increase in deployment of fast charging stations. To mitigate the adverse impacts on feeder health, a novel dynamic grid-informed pricing approach is proposed. This approach leverages reinforcement learning (RL) to determine hourly charging prices based on real-time grid conditions. A synthetic environment was developed to train the reinforcement learning agent. A model of an IEEE 34-bus distribution feeder with EV charging stations has been developed in OpenDSS utilizing Caldera for realistic EV charging profiles. Test cases demonstrate that the dynamic pricing strategy achieves higher energy delivery to the EV end user at a lower cost compared to constant pricing methods, while lowering voltage deviations and congestion. This approach offers more granular price adjustments, responding dynamically to feeder conditions and potentially improving grid stability and efficiency. The communication architecture to implement this dynamic pricing method is described. This research contributes to the development of smart grid-informed charging solutions that can reduce the cost of charging to the end user while also helping the grid.

EV charging, dynamic pricing, grid-informed chargi↗
DOE OSTI2025

A dynamic pricing method to manage the impact of EV charging on the grid using RL

This work addresses the challenge of managing electrical vehicle (EV) charging loads on distribution feeders with the increase in deployment of fast charging stations. To mitigate the adverse impacts on feeder health, a novel dynamic grid-informed pricing approach is proposed. This approach leverages reinforcement learning (RL) to determine hourly charging prices based on real-time grid conditions. A synthetic environment was developed to train the reinforcement learning agent. A model of an IEEE 34-bus distribution feeder with EV charging stations has been developed in OpenDSS utilizing Caldera for realistic EV charging profiles. Test cases demonstrate that the dynamic pricing strategy achieves higher energy delivery to the EV end user at a lower cost compared to constant pricing methods, while lowering voltage deviations and congestion. This approach offers more granular price adjustments, responding dynamically to feeder conditions and potentially improving grid stability and efficiency. The communication architecture to implement this dynamic pricing method is described. This research contributes to the development of smart grid-informed charging solutions that can reduce the cost of charging to the end user while also helping the grid.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

OCHRE: The Object-oriented, Controllable, High-resolution Residential Energy Model for Dynamic Integration Studies

Electrification and the growth of distributed energy resources (DERs), including flexible loads, are changing the energy landscape of electric distribution systems and creating new challenges and opportunities for electric utilities. Changes in demand profiles require improvements in distribution system load models, which have not historically accounted for device controllability or impacts on customer comfort. Although building modeling research has focused on these features, there is a need to incorporate them into distribution load models that include DERs and can be used to study grid-interactive buildings. In this paper, we present the Object-oriented, Controllable, High-resolution Residential Energy (OCHRE) model. OCHRE is a controllable thermal-electric residential energy model that captures building thermal dynamics, integrates grid-dependent electrical behavior, contains models for common DERs and end-use loads, and simulates at a time resolution down to 1 minute. It includes models for space heaters, air conditioners, water heaters, electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and batteries that are externally controllable and integrated in a co-simulation framework. Using a proposed zero energy ready community in Colorado, we co-simulate a distribution grid and 498 all-electric homes with a diverse set of efficiency levels and equipment properties. We show that controllable devices can reduce peak demand within a neighborhood by up to 73% during a critical peak period without sacrificing occupant comfort. We also demonstrate the importance of modeling load diversity at a high time resolution when quantifying power and voltage fluctuations across a distribution system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large-scale simulation-based parametric analysis of an optimal precooling strategy for demand flexibility in a commercial office building

Achieving success with grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) is closely tied to the utilization of flexible loads. A valuable strategy involves the implementation of precooling techniques before high-demand events, such as peak hours, by adjusting zone air temperature setpoints. This leads to a reduction in thermal loads and peak electricity demand during these times, as the building’s thermal mass stores and subsequently releases thermal energy. However, the effectiveness of the pre-cooling optimization is highly contingent on specific conditions such as building thermal properties, weather conditions, utility rate structure, HVAC equipment sizing, etc. Therefore, investigating the impacts of these condition-specific factors is crucial, especially when considering precooling strategies that utilize thermal mass in commercial buildings. In this paper, we first devised a novel heuristic control approach that incorporates parameterized optimal precooling thermostat schedules to enhance demand flexibility in a commercial office building. Subsequently, we conducted a thorough performance evaluation of this control strategy. Here, the optimal thermostat schedule was parameterized using three optimization variables: the precooling start time, the precooling end time, and the precooling temperature setpoint. Utilizing the DOE medium-sized office building as the virtual testbed, we showed that the parameterized schedule effectively approximates model predictive control and requires drastically reduced computational overhead. In addition, we investigated the impact of different influencing factors on the optimal precooling strategy. These factors include building thermal mass, outdoor air conditions, and energy price profiles. Using high-performance computing, we simulated a total of 225 scenarios, consisting of three levels of thermal mass, five typical outdoor air temperature profiles, and fifteen time-of-use price plans. The results demonstrate that optimal thermostat scheduling could save substantial energy cost in medium-sized office buildings with heavy thermal mass but with some energy penalty. Although the potential for cost savings is lower in buildings with low and medium thermal mass, the energy penalty remains consistent in all three thermal mass scenarios. The study also highlights the need to account for zone diversity and recognize that a one-size-fits-all-zone setpoint schedule may not be suitable for all zones and can lead to unnecessary energy wastage. Furthermore, the results highlight that while outdoor air conditions play a role in cost and energy performance, the cooling load exerts a more immediate and substantial influence on cost savings in precooling strategies. Although cost savings are comparable under certain conditions with the same cooling load, observed deviations in energy penalty indicate potential disparities in the efficiency of the HVAC system during the load-shifting process. In addition, the duration of peak pricing and the ratio between peak and off-peak times exhibit clear correlations with cost savings and energy consumption, aligning with intuitive expectations. These findings offer valuable insights for optimizing precooling strategies in office buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Do ambient shear and thermal stratification impact wind turbine tip-vortex breakdown?

Modern wind turbines experience uneven inflow conditions across the rotor, due to the ambient flow’s shear and thermal stratification. Such conditions alter the shape and length of turbine wakes and thus impact the loads and power generation of downstream turbines. To this end, understanding the spatial evolution of the individual wakes under different atmospheric conditions is key to controlling and optimising turbine arrays. With this numerical study we aim to obtain a better understanding of the fundamental physics governing the near-wake dynamics of wind turbines under shear and thermal stability, by examining their tip-vortex breakup mechanisms. Our approach considers scale-resolving simulations of a single turbine wake under a linear shear profile as well as the application of harmonic tip perturbations to trigger flow instabilities. For the subsequent analysis we use the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) method to extract coherent structures from the flow, and we also calculate mean kinetic energy fluxes to quantify each coherent structure’s contribution to wake recovery. The wake’s helical spiral is found to hinder wake recovery for all studied ambient flow conditions, whereas the mutual inductance instability has positive MKE flux leading to an enhanced wake recovery. Finally, the ambient shear has the largest impact on the local MKE flux with respect to downstream location by changing the shape of the curve and location of extrema, whereas thermal stratification has only a minimal impact on the magnitude of the near-wake local MKE flux distribution.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗