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DOE OSTI2022

Indirect Tool Condition Monitoring Using Ensemble Machine Learning Techniques

Abstract Tool condition monitoring (TCM) has become a research area of interest due to its potential to significantly reduce manufacturing costs while increasing process visibility and efficiency. Machine learning (ML) is one analysis technique which has demonstrated advantages for TCM applications. However, the commonly studied individual ML models lack generalizability to new machining and environmental conditions, as well as robustness to the unbalanced datasets which are common in TCM. Ensemble ML models have demonstrated superior performance in other fields, but have only begun to be evaluated for TCM. As a result, it is not well understood how their TCM performance compares to that of individual models, or how homogeneous and heterogeneous ensemble models’ performances compare to one another. To fill in these research gaps, milling experiments were conducted using various cutting conditions, and the model groups were compared across several performance metrics. Statistical t-tests were also used to evaluate the significance of model performance differences. Through the analysis of four individual ML models and five ensemble models, all based on the processes’ sound, spindle power, and axial load signals, it was found that on average, the ensemble models performed better than the individual models, and that the homogeneous ensembles outperformed the heterogeneous ensembles.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ensemble-function relationships to dissect mechanisms of enzyme catalysis

Decades of structure-function studies have established our current extensive understanding of enzymes. However, traditional structural models are snapshots of broader conformational ensembles of interchanging states. We demonstrate the need for conformational ensembles to understand function, using the enzyme ketosteroid isomerase (KSI) as an example. Comparison of prior KSI cryogenic x-ray structures suggested deleterious mutational effects from a misaligned oxyanion hole catalytic residue. However, ensemble information from room-temperature x-ray crystallography, combined with functional studies, excluded this model. Ensemble-function analyses can deconvolute effects from altering the probability of occupying a state (P-effects) and changing the reactivity of each state (k-effects); our ensemble-function analyses revealed functional effects arising from weakened oxyanion hole hydrogen bonding and substrate repositioning within the active site. Ensemble-function studies will have an integral role in understanding enzymes and in meeting the future goals of a predictive understanding of enzyme catalysis and engineering new enzymes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of the Four-Dimensional Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation with Self-Consistent Regional Background Error Covariance for Improved Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

The feasibility of a hurricane initialization framework based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based four-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-4DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) model is evaluated in this study. The system considers the temporal evolution of error covariances via the use of four-dimensional ensemble perturbations that are provided by high-resolution, self-consistent HWRF ensemble forecasts. It is different from the configuration of the GSI-based three-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-3DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system, similar to that used in the operational HWRF, which employs background error covariances provided by coarser-resolution global ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation system. In addition, our proposed initialization framework discards the empirical intensity correction in the vortex initialization package that is employed by the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework in operational HWRF. Data assimilation and numerical simulation experiments for Hurricanes Joaquin (2015), Patricia (2015), and Matthew (2016) are conducted during their intensity changes. The impacts of two initialization frameworks on the HWRF analyses and forecasts are compared. It is found that GSI-4DEnVar leads to a reduction in track, minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), and maximum surface wind (MSW) forecast errors in all of the HWRF simulations, compared with the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework. With assimilating high-resolution observations within the hurricane inner-core region, GSI-4DEnVar can produce the initial hurricane intensity reasonably well without the empirical vortex intensity correction. Further diagnoses with Hurricane Joaquin indicate that GSI-4DEnVar can significantly alleviate the imbalances in the initial conditions and enhance the performance of the data assimilation and subsequent hurricane intensity and precipitation forecasts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantification of regional net CO 2 flux errors in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 model intercomparison project (MIP) ensemble using airborne measurements

Inverse model intercomparison projects (MIPs) provide a chance to assess the uncertainties in inversion estimates arising from various sources. However, accurately quantifying ensemble CO 2 flux errors remains challenging and often relies on the ensemble spread. This study proposes a method for quantifying the errors in regional net surface–atmosphere CO 2 flux estimates from models taken from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 MIP by using independent airborne CO 2 measurements for the period 2015–2017. We first calculate the root mean square error (RMSE) between the ensemble mean of posterior CO 2 concentrations and airborne observations and then isolate the CO 2 concentration errors caused solely by the ensemble mean of posterior net fluxes by subtracting the observation, representation, and transport errors from seven regions. Our analysis reveals that the flux errors projected onto CO 2 space account for 55 %–85 % of the regional average RMSE over the 3 years, ranging from 0.88 to 1.91 ppm. In five regions, the error estimates based on observations exceed those computed from the ensemble spread of posterior fluxes by a factor of 1.33–1.93, implying an underestimation of the actual flux errors, while their magnitudes are comparable in two regions. The adjoint sensitivity analysis identifies that the underestimation of flux errors is prominent where the magnitudes of fossil fuel emissions exceed those of terrestrial-biosphere fluxes by a factor of 3–31 over the 3 years. This suggests the presence of systematic biases in the inversion estimates associated with errors in the prescribed fossil fuel emissions common to all models. Our study emphasizes the value of airborne measurements for quantifying regional errors in ensemble net CO 2 flux estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Producing High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles at Scale

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the US via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. Our initial task involves creating ensembles for 17 US metropolitan areas, each consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system comprised of a research cloud, virtual containerization, GPU-enhanced functionality, and a dual API/CLI to interact with UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. We observe a reduction in theoretical execution time while maintaining high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by metropolitan area and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods. We discuss expansion of our approach to produce synthetic population ensembles for the entire US, particularly plans to establish automated workflows for job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Gaboardi, James [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247766826)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Behavioral Ensemble CLM5 Hydrological Parameter Sets

This repository contains hydrological parameter sets derived using the hybrid regionalization method for three distinct streamflow signatures: Streamflow Signatures: Q10: Represents low flow, indicating the nonexceedance probability of 0.1 for daily streamflow. Q90: Represents high flow, with a nonexceedance probability of 0.9 for daily streamflow. Qmean: Indicates the mean annual flow. Parameters for 464 CAMELS Basins: CAMELS_1000_parameters.csv: Contains 1,000 ensemble parameter sets generated using the Latin hypercube sampling method for CLM5, encompassing 15 hydrological parameters. CAMELS_q10_behavioral_parameter_num.csv: Provides the behavioral ensemble parameter sets for the Q10 streamflow signature for each basin. The associated ID number refers to entries in the CAMELS_1000_parameters.csv file. A minimum of 10 ensemble parameter sets are available for each basin. CAMELS_q90_behavioral_parameter_num.csv: Similar to the above file but for the Q90 streamflow signature. CAMELS_qmean_behavioral_parameter_num.csv: Corresponds to the Qmean streamflow signature, similar to the previous files. Parameters for 50,629 1/8° CONUS Land Grid Cells: CONUS_350_parameters.csv: Contains 350 ensemble parameter sets derived using the Latin hypercube sampling method for CLM5's 15 hydrological parameters within 1/8° CONUS land grid cells. CONUS_q10_behavioral_parameter_num.csv: Holds the behavioral ensemble parameter sets for the Q10 streamflow signature, organized for each grid cell. The ID number relates to entries in CONUS_350_parameters.csv. A minimum of 10 ensemble parameter sets are provided for each grid cell. CONUS_q90_behavioral_parameter_num.csv: Similar to the above file but focusing on the Q90 streamflow signature. CONUS_qmean_behavioral_parameter_num.csv: Corresponds to the Qmean streamflow signature, following a similar structure to the previous files.

Yan, Hongxiang↗

NASA NTRS2004

New Software for Ensemble Creation in the Spitzer-Space-Telescope Operations Database

Some of the computer pipelines used to process digital astronomical images from NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope require multiple input images, in order to generate high-level science and calibration products. The images are grouped into ensembles according to well documented ensemble-creation rules by making explicit associations in the operations Informix database at the Spitzer Science Center (SSC). The advantage of this approach is that a simple database query can retrieve the required ensemble of pipeline input images. New and improved software for ensemble creation has been developed. The new software is much faster than the existing software because it uses pre-compiled database stored-procedures written in Informix SPL (SQL programming language). The new software is also more flexible because the ensemble creation rules are now stored in and read from newly defined database tables. This table-driven approach was implemented so that ensemble rules can be inserted, updated, or deleted without modifying software.

Spitzer Science Center (SSC)↗

NASA NTRS2006

An Ensemble-Based Smoother with Retrospectively Updated Weights for Highly Nonlinear Systems

Monte Carlo computational methods have been introduced into data assimilation for nonlinear systems in order to alleviate the computational burden of updating and propagating the full probability distribution. By propagating an ensemble of representative states, algorithms like the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the resampled particle filter (RPF) rely on the existing modeling infrastructure to approximate the distribution based on the evolution of this ensemble. This work presents an ensemble-based smoother that is applicable to the Monte Carlo filtering schemes like EnKF and RPF. At the minor cost of retrospectively updating a set of weights for ensemble members, this smoother has demonstrated superior capabilities in state tracking for two highly nonlinear problems: the double-well potential and trivariate Lorenz systems. The algorithm does not require retrospective adaptation of the ensemble members themselves, and it is thus suited to a streaming operational mode. The accuracy of the proposed backward-update scheme in estimating non-Gaussian distributions is evaluated by comparison to the more accurate estimates provided by a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm.

Monte Carlo↗

NASA NTRS2015

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.

Baker, Noel C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

Baker, Noel C.↗

NASA NTRS2019

ESD Reviews: Model Dependence in Multi-Model Climate Ensembles: Weighting, Sub-Selection and Out-Of-Sample Testing

The rationale for using multi-model ensembles in climate change projections and impacts research is often based on the expectation that different models constitute independent estimates; therefore, a range of models allows a better characterisation of the uncertainties in the representation of the climate system than a single model. However, it is known that research groups share literature, ideas for representations of processes, parameterisations, evaluation data sets and even sections of model code. Thus, nominally different models might have similar biases because of similarities in the way they represent a subset of processes, or even be near-duplicates of others, weakening the assumption that they constitute independent estimates. If there are near-replicates of some models, then treating all models equally is likely to bias the inferences made using these ensembles. The challenge is to establish the degree to which this might be true for any given application. While this issue is recognised by many in the community, quantifying and accounting for model dependence in anything other than an ad-hoc way is challenging. Here we present a synthesis of the range of disparate attempts to define, quantify and address model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles in a common conceptual framework, and provide guidance on how users can test the efficacy of approaches that move beyond the equally weighted ensemble. In the upcoming Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), several new models that are closely related to existing models are anticipated, as well as large ensembles from some models. We argue that quantitatively accounting for dependence in addition to model performance, and thoroughly testing the effectiveness of the approach used will be key to a sound interpretation of the CMIP ensembles in future scientific studies.

Abramowitz, Gab↗

NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty in Soil Moisture Retrievals: an Ensemble Approach Using SMOS L-Band Microwave Data

The uncertainty of soil moisture (SM) retrievals from satellite brightness temperature (TB) observations depends primarily on the choice of radiative transfer model (RTM) parameters, prior SM information and TB inputs. This paper studies the sensitivity of several (quasi-)operational and experimental SM retrieval products from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission to these choices at 11 reference sites, located in 7 watersheds across the United States (US). Different literature-based RTM parameter sets cause large biases between retrievals. Whereas typical RTM parameter sets are calibrated for SM retrievals, it is shown that a parameter set carefully optimized for TB forward modeling can also be used for retrieving SM. It is also shown that the inclusion of dynamic prior SM estimates in a Bayesian retrieval scheme can strongly improve SM retrievals, regardless of the choice of RTM parameters, and that the use of multi-angular and multi-polarization TB does not necessarily lead to superior retrievals compared to retrievals based on TB data at a single incidence angle and polarization. The second part of this paper evaluates ensemble uncertainty metrics for SM retrievals obtained by propagating a wide range of RTM parameters through the RTM. As expected for bounded variables, the spread in the ensemble SM retrievals is smallest for wet and dry SM values and highest for intermediate SM values. After removal of the strong long-term mean bias associated with the RTM parameter values for individual ensemble members, the remaining anomaly ensemble SM spread of 0.037 cu m/cu m approximates the actual time series unbiased root-mean-square-difference of 0.042 cu m/cu m between ensemble mean retrievals and in situ reference data across the reference sites. However, the temporal variability in the anomaly ensemble spread reveals higher-order biases in the retrieval error, which should be accounted for when characterizing retrieval error.

Jan Quets↗

NASA NTRS2019

Parameterization-Induced Uncertainties and Impacts of Crop Management Harmonization in a Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) combine agronomic or plant growth models with gridded spatial input data to estimate spatially explicit crop yields and agricultural externalities at the global scale. Differences in GGCM outputs arise from the use of different biophysical models, setups, and input data. GGCM ensembles are frequently employed to bracket uncertainties in impact studies without investigating the causes of divergence in outputs. This study explores differences in maize yield estimates from five GGCMs based on the public domain field-scale model Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) that participate in the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison initiative. Albeit using the same crop model, the GGCMs differ in model version, input data, management assumptions, parameterization, and selection of subroutines affecting crop yield estimates via cultivar distributions, soil attributes, and hydrology among others. The analyses reveal inter-annual yield variability and absolute yield levels in the EPIC-based GGCMs to be highly sensitive to soil parameterization and crop management. All GGCMs show an intermediate performance in reproducing reported yields with a higher skill if a static soil profile is assumed or sufficient plant nutrients are supplied. An in-depth comparison of setup domains for two EPIC-based GGCMs shows that GGCM performance and plant stress responses depend substantially on soil parameters and soil process parameterization, i.e. hydrology and nutrient turnover, indicating that these often neglected domains deserve more scrutiny. For agricultural impact assessments, employing a GGCM ensemble with its widely varying assumptions in setups appears the best solution for coping with uncertainties from lack of comprehensive global data on crop management, cultivar distributions and coefficients for agro-environmental processes. However, the underlying assumptions require systematic specifications to cover representative agricultural systems and environmental conditions. Furthermore, the interlinkage of parameter sensitivity from various domains such as soil parameters, nutrient turnover coefficients, and cultivar specifications highlights that global sensitivity analyses and calibration need to be performed in an integrated manner to avoid bias resulting from disregarded core model domains. Finally, relating evaluations of the EPIC-based GGCMs to a wider ensemble based on individual core models shows that structural differences outweigh in general differences in configurations of GGCMs based on the same model, and that the ensemble mean gains higher skill from the inclusion of structurally different GGCMs. Although the members of the wider ensemble herein do not consider crop-soil-management interactions, their sensitivity to nutrient supply indicates that findings for the EPIC-based sub-ensemble will likely become relevant for other GGCMs with the progressing inclusion of such processes.

Folberth, Christian↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A NASA GISTEMP Observational Uncertainty Ensemble: Regional and Monthly Uncertainty

The historical global temperature record is an essential data product for quantifying the variability and change of the Earth system. In recent years, better characterization of observational uncertainty in global and hemispheric trends has become available, but the methodologies are not necessarily applicable to analyses at smaller regional areas, or monthly means, where station sparsity and other systematic issues contribute to greater uncertainty. This work details a gridded uncertainty ensemble of historical temperature anomalies from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature product (GISTEMP) product. This ensemble characterizes the complex spatial and temporal correlation structure of uncertainty in gridded historical temperature, enabling proper uncertainty propagation for climate and social science at regional and monthly scales. This work details the methodology for generating the uncertainty ensemble, key statistics of the uncertainty evolution over space and time, and provides best practices for using the uncertainty ensemble in future studies. Summary statistics from the uncertainty ensemble are in good agreement with production GISTEMP. Two applications of the uncertainty ensemble are also presented. First, the warmest year on record is shown to most likely be 2016 with a 53.2% chance and 2020 as the second most likely with a 44.4% chance. Second, it is shown that the arctic is warming 2.5 - 5 times faster than the globe, significantly faster than the regularly quoted twice as fast.

GISTEMP↗

NASA NTRS2023

The optimization of model ensemble composition and size can enhance the robustness of crop yield projections

Linked climate and crop simulation models are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture. However, it is unclear how ensemble configurations (model composition and size) influence crop yield projections and uncertainty. Here, we investigate the influences of ensemble configurations on crop yield projections and modeling uncertainty from Global Gridded Crop Models and Global Climate Models under future climate change. We performed a cluster analysis to identify distinct groups of ensemble members based on their projected outcomes, revealing unique patterns in crop yield projections and corresponding uncertainty levels, particularly for wheat and soybean. Furthermore, our findings suggest that approximately six Global Gridded Crop Models and 10 Global Climate Models are sufficient to capture modeling uncertainty, while a cluster-based selection of 3-4 Global Gridded Crop Models effectively represents the full ensemble. The contribution of individual Global Gridded Crop Models to overall uncertainty varies depending on region and crop type, emphasizing the importance of considering the impact of specific models when selecting models for local-scale applications. Our results emphasize the importance of model composition and ensemble size in identifying the primary sources of uncertainty in crop yield projections, offering valuable guidance for optimizing ensemble configurations in climate-crop modeling studies tailored to specific applications.

Agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2023

Systematic Validation of Ensemble Cloud-Process Simulations using Polarimetric Radar Observations and Simulator over the NASA Wallops Flight Facility

The BiLateral Operational Storm-Scale Observation and Modeling (BLOSSOM) project was initiated to establish a long-term supersite to improve understanding of cloud physical states and processes as well as to support satellite and climate model programs over the WFF site via a bilateral approach of storm-scale observations and process modeling. This study highlights a noble systematic validation framework of the BLOSSOM ensemble cloud-process simulations through mixed-phase, light-rain, and deep-convective precipitation cases. The framework consists of creating a domain-shifted ensemble of large-scale forcing datasets, and configuring and performing cloud-process simulations with three different bulk microphysics schemes. Validation uses NASA S-band dual-POLarimetric radar (NPOL) observations in the form of statistical composites and skill scores via a polarimetric radar simulator and newly developed CfRad Data tool (CfRAD). While the simulations capture the overall structures of the reflectivity composites, polarimetric signals are still poorly simulated, mainly due to a lack of representation of ice microphysics diversity in shapes, orientation distributions, and their complex mixtures. Despite the limitation, this new ensemble-based validation framework demonstrates that 1) no particular forcing or microphysics scheme outperforms the rest and 2) the skill scores of coarse- and fine-resolution ensemble simulations with different domain-shifted forcing and microphysics schemes are highly correlated with each other with no clear improvement. On the other hand, this suggests that coarse-resolution ensemble simulations are relevant for selecting the best meteorological forcing and microphysics scheme before conducting computationally demanding large eddy simulations (LESs) in support of aircraft and satellite instrument development as well as cloud-precipitation-convection parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prioritizing the selection of CMIP6 model ensemble members for downscaling projections of CONUS temperature and precipitation

Given the mismatch between the large volume of data archived for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and limited personnel and computational resources for downscaling, only a small fraction of the CMIP6 archive can be downscaled. In this work, we develop an approach to robustly sample projected hydroclimate states in CMIP6 for downscaling to test whether the selection of a single initial condition (IC) ensemble member from each CMIP6 model is sufficient to span the range of modeled hydroclimate over the conterminous United States (CONUS) and CONUS sub-regions. We calculate the pattern-centered root mean square difference of IC ensemble member anomalies relative to each model’s historical climatology for shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections over 30-year time periods and compare the ratio of inter-model to intra-model variability for this metric. Regardless of SSP, inter-model variability is generally much greater than intra-model variability at the scales of the CONUS as a whole, as well as for most CONUS sub-regions. However, for some variables and scenarios, inter- and intra-model variability are similar at sub-CONUS scales, indicating that selecting a single IC ensemble member per model may be sufficient to sample the range of projected hydroclimate states in the 21st Century across CONUS, but for specific regions and variables, more careful selection of ensemble members may be necessary. Regionally resolved Taylor diagrams identify where more IC ensemble member downscaling efforts should be focused if resources are available to do so. Our results suggest that, with parsimonious sampling, the requisite computational expense of downscaling temperature and precipitation fields over the CONUS for subsequent CMIP activities may increase only marginally despite the great increase in data volumes with each successive CMIP phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scalable Generation of High-fidelity Synthetic Population Ensembles

Used within social simulations, synthetic population ensembles enable uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for obtaining more robust model inference and prediction. A synthetic population ensemble is a series of plausible virtual reconstructions of an area’s population at the granularity of people and residences, generated stochastically to preserve privacy of the source population survey’s respondents. In this paper, we demonstrate the production of large synthetic population ensembles for the U.S. via Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s UrbanPop framework to support modeling of high spatial resolution energy affordability metrics from nationwide social surveys in collaboration with the fusionACS project. The study involves two scenarios: creating ensembles for (1) 17 U.S. metropolitan areas in 2019 and (2) full U.S. Census Divisions in 2023, with each scenario consisting of 41 population instances (a base realization and 40 replicates). To accomplish this task at scale, we configured an integrated system within a research cloud, comprised of virtual containerizations, GPU-enhanced functionality, and orchestrated deployments of UrbanPop’s maturing Likeness Python ecosystem. Results demonstrate we maintained high-fidelity approximations of residential totals by areas of interest and the demographic characteristics of neighborhoods while reducing manual workflow burdens. Finally, we discuss plans to fine-tune and further develop our automated workflows for truly distributed job orchestration to increase computational efficiency, as well as provide an outlook for broadening applications of the ensembles.

Cluster computing↗