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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Instrumented Photovoltaic Modules for Environmental Characterization and Simulation Model Validation

Photovoltaic modules are subjected to various mechanical stressors in their deployment environments, ranging from installation handling to wind and snow loads. Damage incurred during these mechanical events has the potential to initiate subsequent degradation mechanisms, reducing useful module lifespan. Thus, characterizing the mechanical state of photovoltaic modules is pertinent to the development of reliable packaging designs. In this work, photovoltaic modules with strain gauges directly incorporated into the module laminate were fabricated and subjected to mechanical loading to characterize internal strains within the module when under load. These experimental measurements were then compared against results obtained by high-fidelity finite-element simulations. The simulation results showed reasonable agreement in the strain values over time; however, there were large discrepancies in the magnitudes of these strains. Both the instrumentation technique and the finite-element simulations have areas where they can improve. These areas of improvement have been documented. Despite the observed discrepancies between the experimental and simulated results, the module instrumentation proved to be a useful gauge in monitoring and characterizing the mechanical state. With some process improvements, this method could potentially be applied to other environments that a photovoltaic module will encounter in its lifetime that are known to cause damage and degrade performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating Exposures of Bay Mussels (Mytilus trossulus) to Contaminants of Emerging Concern through Environmental Sampling and Hydrodynamic Modeling.

Bay mussels (Mytilus trossulus) were transplanted to 18 locations representing a range of potential exposures throughout Puget Sound, WA. Tissues were analyzed for over 200 organic contaminants. Results indicated the widespread exposure of marine organisms to trace levels of organic contaminants including the synthetic opioid oxycodone, present at three urban sites, and the chemotherapy drug melphalan, present at nine locations, at levels that may be of biological concern. Land-use and wastewater outfalls were evaluated as potential sources of CECs to the nearshore. Exposure to alkylphenol ethoxylates was associated with increased impervious surfaces in upland watersheds. A hydrodynamic simulation was performed using the Salish Sea Model to integrate inputs from 99 wastewater sources to Puget Sound. Predictions were consistent with concentrations of several wastewater-associated contaminants and d15N enrichment. These results support the notion that Puget Sound nearshore biota suffer chronic exposures to a suite of contaminants from multiple sources and provide critical to focus future monitoring and management.

toxic contamination, Salish Sea, Sish Sea Model, m↗
DOE OSTI2021

Soil respiration spatial and temporal variability in China between 1961 and 2014

Soil respiration (Rs) plays an important role in terrestrial-atmospheric carbon exchange but remains one of the least studied components of the carbon cycle. How environmental changes influence Rs, and in turn, how Rs influences terrestrial carbon storage in China is unclear. Here, we estimated spatial patterns and temporal trends in Rs from 1961 to 2014 to determine the influence of the recent warming hiatus on the Rs temporal variability in China. We evaluated the relationship between Rs and a set of environmental factors and developed biome-specific Rs models that were parameterized based on 2,862 Rs records and 18 continuous variables (e.g., air temperature, precipitation and leaf area index). Based on the biome-specific Rs models and environmental information, we estimated the annual Rs as well as the change trend of Rs in China during the study period. The mean annual Rs from 1961 to 2014 was 3.50 (confidence interval +/- 0.87) Pg center dot C center dot year(-1). Rs in China increased at a rate of 0.008 Pg center dot C center dot year(-2) between 1982 and 1998 (warming period), but was static between 1999 and 2014 (warming hiatus). This reduction in Rs increase rate may have an important role in enhancing terrestrial carbon sequestration. These findings confirm that temporal heterogeneity in Rs could be influenced by regional environmental changes, and further help in improving the understanding of soil carbon dynamics in China.

Jian, Jinshi↗
DOE OSTI2024

STREAM: Strategic Technology Roadmapping and Energy, Environmental, and Economic Analysis Model

This is the implementation of the framework for the planning of the technological makeup of the industrial sector. Motivated by the efforts to achieve carbon neutrality, the model of this framework modifies the portfolio of technologies over time for the sector of interest such that, - Net Present Value (NPV) is minimized - Constraint on Greenhouse Emissions (GHG), e.g. carbon dioxide, is satisfied - Demand of the underlying commodity is satisfied - The current implementation reflects a case study for the electric power sector. The for a given initial set of capacities of different vintages, the space of decisions include, - Retirement of the existing capacities. - Retrofitting the existing capacities to alternative characteristics. - Creation of new capacities from a technology portfolio. All the associated quantities with the deployments, e.g. CO2, heat requirement, etc.

Thiery, David↗
DOE OSTI2025

PaleoSTeHM v1.0: a modern, scalable spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling framework for paleo-environmental data

Abstract. Geological records of past environmental change provide crucial insights into long-term climate variability, trends, non-stationarity, and nonlinear feedback mechanisms. However, reconstructing spatiotemporal fields from these records is statistically challenging due to their sparse, indirect, and noisy nature. Here, we present PaleoSTeHM, a scalable and modern framework for spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling of paleo-environmental data. This framework enables the implementation of flexible statistical models that rigorously quantify spatial and temporal variability from geological data while clearly distinguishing measurement and inferential uncertainty from process variability. We illustrate its application by reconstructing temporal and spatiotemporal paleo-sea-level changes across multiple locations. Using various modeling and analysis choices, PaleoSTeHM demonstrates the impact of different methods on inference results and computational efficiency. Our results highlight the critical role of model selection in addressing specific paleo-environmental questions, showcasing the PaleoSTeHM framework's potential to enhance the robustness and transparency of paleo-environmental reconstructions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The waterSHED Model: User Guide

The ideal design and operation of small hydropower plants is a complex optimization problem with economic, social, and environmental objectives. The waterSHED (Water Allocation Tool Enabling Rapid Small Hydropower Environmental Design) model is a user-friendly tool that allows hydropower stakeholders to model the trade-offs among these objectives using the Standard Modular Hydropower (SMH) framework. The SMH framework employs modular technologies that can be represented as blackbox objects and combined within a river to create a hydropower facility. For a given site, the waterSHED model aims to determine which modules should be placed in a facility and how those modules should be operated. This user guide describes how to use the graphical user interface and related functionalities. This document also summarizes the background research and mathematical formulations that are explained indepth in the accompanying doctoral dissertation. This model is an early step toward a new hydropower design process that employs standardization and modularity to reduce costs, development timelines, and challenges regarding social and environmental mitigation measures for low-head, small hydropower development. The waterSHED model is a Python application that will require the ability to download a GitHub repository, import the necessary packages, and run a set of Python script files using an integrated development environment. The script produces a graphical user interface to coordinate inputs, simulate operation, and visualize results, so no coding experience is needed once the script is running. Additionally, the waterSHED Workbook is a Microsoft Excel file that works with the Python script to facilitate data entry

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

HIPSTER (Harmonized Impacts across Products, Scenarios, and Technologies for Environmental and Resource metrics) [SWR-24-17]

Development of a prototype, code-based life cycle assessment framework, the Harmonized Impacts across Products, Scenarios, and Technologies for Environmental and Resource metrics (HIPSTER), to coherently assess outputs of prospective NREL models across environmental and resource use metrics. Eventually, HIPSTER is aimed to also cover socioeconomic and justice metrics. At present, NREL model scenario impact assessments are performed incoherently, as they as based on varying assumptions and inputs, specifically life cycle inventories, and cover different system boundaries. HIPSTER was created to align the assumptions and boundaries with those of cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment. In FY22, HIPSTER was successfully applied using scenarios from the ReEDS™ model, NREL's flagship capacity expansion model resulting in cradle-to-grace time-series life cycle impacts across LCA midpoints and resource use metrics.

Ghosh, Tapajyoti↗
DOE OSTI2022

Developments in Physics-Based Modeling and Machine Learning for Environmental Effects in Nuclear Materials [Slides]

This presentation is part of an annual review for the new Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies program under the Office of Nuclear Energy within the Department of Energy. This presentation covers advances in physics-based modeling and machine learning for environmental effects in nuclear materials. It discusses efforts in combining density functional theory with machine learning to predict material properties, studying irradiation defect recombination, and improving MOOSE-based tools for crystal plasticity modeling and the Stochastic Tools Module.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advocating Feedback Control for Human-Earth System Applications

This paper proposes a feedback control perspective for Human-Earth Systems (HESs) which essentially are complex systems that capture the interactions between humans and nature. Recent attention in HES research has been directed towards devising strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation, aimed at achieving environmental and societal objectives. However, existing approaches heavily rely on HES models, which inherently suffer from inaccuracies due to the complexity of the system. Moreover, overly detailed models often prove impractical for optimization tasks. We propose a framework inheriting from feedback control strategies the robustness against model errors, because inaccuracies are mitigated using measurements retrieved from the field. The framework comprises two nested control loops. The outer loop computes the optimal inputs to the HES, which are then implemented by actuators controlled in the inner loop. Potential fields of applications are also identified and a numerical example is provided.

biological system modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of Tritium Dose Calculations from MACCS, UFOTRI, and ETMOD

Tritium exhibits unique environmental behavior because of its potential interactions with water and organic substances. Modeling the environmental consequences of tritium releases can be relatively complex and thus an evaluation of MACCS is needed to understand what updates, if any, are needed in MACCS to account for the behavior of tritium. We examine documented tritium releases and previous benchmarking assessments to perform a model intercomparison between MACCS and state-of-practice tritium-specific codes UFOTRI and ETMOD to quantify the difference between MACCS and state of practice models for assessing tritium consequences. Additionally, information to assist an analyst in judging whether a postulated tritium release is likely to lead to significant doses is provided.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying carbon budget, crop yields and their responses to environmental variability using the ecosys model for U.S. Midwestern agroecosystems

As one of the major agricultural production areas in the world, the United States (U.S.) Midwest plays a vital role in the global food supply and agricultural ecosystem services. Although significant efforts have been made in modeling the carbon cycle dynamics over this area, large uncertainty still exists in the previous simulations in terms of reproducing individual components of the carbon cycle and their responses to environmental variability. Here we evaluated the performance of an advanced agroecosystem model, ecosys, in simulating carbon budgets over the U.S. Midwest, considering both the magnitude of carbon flux/yield and its response to environmental (climate and soil) variability. We conducted model simulations and evaluations at 7 cropland eddy-covariance sites as well as over 293 counties of Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa in the U.S. Midwest. The site-level simulations showed that ecosys captured both the magnitude and seasonal patterns of carbon fluxes (i.e., net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE), ecosystem gross primary production (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (Reco)), leaf area index (LAI), and dynamic plant carbon allocation processes, with R2 equal to 0.92, 0.87, 0.87, and 0.78 for GPP, NEE, Reco, and LAI, respectively across all the sites compared with the observations. For regional scale simulations, ecosys reproduced the spatial distribution and interannual variability of corn and soybean yields with the constraints of observed yields and a new remotely sensed GPP product, with R2 of multi-year averaged simulated and observed yield equal 0.83 and 0.80 for corn and soybean, respectively. The simulated responses of carbon cycle dynamics to environmental variability were consistent with that from the empirical observations at both site and regional scales. Furthermore, our results demonstrated the applicability of ecosys in simulating the carbon cycle and soil carbon dynamics of the U.S. Midwestern agroecosystems under different climate and soil conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increasing sequential tropical cyclone hazards along the US East and Gulf coasts

Two tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall close together can induce sequential hazards to coastal areas. Here we investigate the change in sequential TC hazards in the historical and future projected climates. We find that the chance of sequential TC hazards has been increasing over the past several decades at many US locations. Under the high (moderate) emission scenario, the chance of hazards from two TCs impacting the same location within 15 days may substantially increase, with the return period decreasing over the century from 10–92 years to ~1–2 (1–3) years along the US East and Gulf coasts, due to sea-level rise and storm climatology change. Climate change can also cause unprecedented compounding of extreme hazards at the regional level. A Katrina-like TC and a Harvey-like TC impacting the United States within 15 days of each other, which is non-existent in the control simulation for over 1,000 years, is projected to have an annual occurrence probability of more than 1% by the end of the century under the high emission scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of Explainable, Knowledge-Guided AI Models to Enhance the E3SM Land Model Development and Uncertainty Quantification

Focal Area(s): (2)Predictive modeling using AI techniques and AI-derived model components; use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models. (3) Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge- guided AI. Science Challenge: The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a fully coupled, state-of-the-science Earth system model that uses code optimized for DOE's advanced computers to address the most critical scientific questions facing our nation and society (Golaz et al., 2019). The E3SM Land model (ELM) is designed to understand how the changes in terrestrial land surfaces will interact with other Earth system components and has been used to understand hydrologic cycles, biogeophysics, and ecosystem dynamics. In spite of great successes, the ELM has several known issues that restrain rapid improvements. For example, the ELM uses equilibrium models to simulate dynamic land-climate interactions and it requires long model spin-up time to identify suitable initial conditions for transient simulations. The ELM lacks built-in uncertainty mechanisms that can improve the robustness of model predictions. The ELM is a holistic, deterministic model system with a rigid design, and in many situations, it is hard to modify the ELM system to incorporate new theory/hypothesis and new data across scales to address emerging science problems (such as predicting the impacts of water cycle extremes). In addition, The ELM is technically optimized for traditional CPU-centric computers and it cannot fully utilize the current and incoming leadership computers for model simulations and uncertainty quantification (UQ). The success of artificial intelligence (AI) has inspired scientists to use AI models to discover intrinsic features from simulation data (Chattopadhyay et al., 2020) and observational data (Reichstein et al., 2019) to gain further process understanding of Earth science problems. However, autonomous AI model training through deep learning usually requires a huge amount of annotated data. To overcome the limitations from the data and computing resources, knowledge-guided AI models are necessary where human-knowledge is ingested in model construction (Banino et al., 2018) and training process (Silver et al., 2016) for efficient learning. Herein, we present a new way that leverages the process understanding from the ELM to guide AI model development for the ELM enhancement and UQ. We hope this study can inspire further Earth and environmental system model developments and transformations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Eagle Behavior and Risk Modeling for Wind Energy Webinar

NREL presents recent progress in the development and validation of new eagle behavioral models, highlighting applications for wind-plant siting and operations. This webinar features talks focused on three areas: atmospheric modeling across the spatiotemporal scales of interest, facility-scale behavioral modeling, and turbine-scale data-driven behavioral modeling. A final presentation demonstrates micrositing as an application of our completely open-source analysis framework.

agent-based movement model↗
DOE OSTI2026

Block Island Project Documentation, Presentations, and Reports

This dataset contains documentation and outreach materials from the RODEO project at the Block Island Wind Farm, including the presentations, report figures, and summary materials produced across the monitoring and modeling effort. It complements the RODEO data datasets (acoustic monitoring, propagation modeling, analysis, environmental, survey, geospatial, bathymetry, and seafloor) and contains documents and figures rather than instrument or model data.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of machine learning models to improve streamflow prediction under changing climate and environmental conditions

Machine learning (ML) models, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks in particular, have demonstrated remarkable performance in streamflow prediction and are increasingly being used by the hydrological research community. However, most of these applications do not include uncertainty quantification (UQ). ML models are data driven and can suffer from large extrapolation errors when applied to changing climate/environmental conditions. UQ is required to quantify the influence of data noises on model predictions and avoid overconfident projections in extrapolation. In this work, we integrate a novel UQ method, called PI3NN, with LSTM networks for streamflow prediction. PI3NN calculates Prediction Intervals by training 3 Neural Networks. It can precisely quantify the predictive uncertainty caused by the data noise and identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data in a non-stationary condition to avoid overconfident predictions. We apply the PI3NN-LSTM method in the snow-dominant East River Watershed in the western US and in the rain-driven Walker Branch Watershed in the southeastern US. Results indicate that for the prediction data which have similar features as the training data, PI3NN precisely quantifies the predictive uncertainty with the desired confidence level; and for the OOD data where the LSTM network fails to make accurate predictions, PI3NN produces a reasonably large uncertainty indicating that the results are not trustworthy and should avoid overconfidence. PI3NN is computationally efficient, robust in performance, and generalizable to various network structures and data with no distributional assumptions. It can be broadly applied in ML-based hydrological simulations for credible prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring the Consistency of Water Scarcity Inferences between Large-Scale Hydrologic and Node-Based Water System Model Representations of the Upper Colorado River Basin

Water resources model development and simulation efforts have seen rapid growth in recent decades to aid evaluations and planning around water scarcity and allocation. Models are typically developed by two distinct communities: (1) large-scale hydrologic modelers emphasizing hydroclimatological processes, and (2) water systems modelers emphasizing environmental, infrastructural, and institutional features that shape water scarcity at the local basin level. This study assesses whether two representative models from these communities produce consistent insights when evaluating the water scarcity vulnerabilities in the Upper Colorado River Basin within the state of Colorado. Results showed that although the regional-scale model [model for scale adaptive river transport (MOSART)—water management (WM)] can capture the aggregate effect of all water operations in the basin, it underestimates the subbasin-scale variability in specific user’s vulnerabilities. The basin-scale water systems model [State of Colorado’s Stream Simulation Model (StateMod)] suggests a larger variance of scarcity across the basin’s water users due to its more detailed accounting of local water allocation infrastructure and institutional processes. This model intercomparison highlights potentially significant limitations of large-scale studies in seeking to evaluate water scarcity and actionable adaptation strategies, as well as ways in which basin-scale water systems model’s information can be used to better inform water allocation and shortage when used in tandem with larger-scale hydrological modeling studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗