Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Error Rate Predictions”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Statistical Analysis of Instantaneous Frequency Scaling Factor as Derived From Optical Disdrometer Measurements At KQ Bands

The rain rate data and statistics of a location are often used in conjunction with models to predict rain attenuation. However, the true attenuation is a function not only of rain rate, but also of the drop size distribution (DSD). Generally, models utilize an average drop size distribution (Laws and Parsons or Marshall and Palmer [1]). However, individual rain events may deviate from these models significantly if their DSD is not well approximated by the average. Therefore, characterizing the relationship between the DSD and attenuation is valuable in improving modeled predictions of rain attenuation statistics. The DSD may also be used to derive the instantaneous frequency scaling factor and thus validate frequency scaling models. Since June of 2014, NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) and the Politecnico di Milano (POLIMI) have jointly conducted a propagation study in Milan, Italy utilizing the 20 and 40 GHz beacon signals of the Alphasat TDP#5 Aldo Paraboni payload. The Ka- and Q-band beacon receivers provide a direct measurement of the signal attenuation while concurrent weather instrumentation provides measurements of the atmospheric conditions at the receiver. Among these instruments is a Thies Clima Laser Precipitation Monitor (optical disdrometer) which yields droplet size distributions (DSD); this DSD information can be used to derive a scaling factor that scales the measured 20 GHz data to expected 40 GHz attenuation. Given the capability to both predict and directly observe 40 GHz attenuation, this site is uniquely situated to assess and characterize such predictions. Previous work using this data has examined the relationship between the measured drop-size distribution and the measured attenuation of the link [2]. The focus of this paper now turns to a deeper analysis of the scaling factor, including the prediction error as a function of attenuation level, correlation between the scaling factor and the rain rate, and the temporal variability of the drop size distribution both within a given rain event and across different varieties of rain events. Index Terms-drop size distribution, frequency scaling, propagation losses, radiowave propagation.

Radio Attenuation↗
NASA NTRS2024

Core Body Temperature Predictions Using Metabolic Energy Expenditure and Heart Rate During Simulated Extravehicular Activity

Long duration spaceflight missions will require crew to become more autonomous in conducting extravehicular activities (EVA) without direct communication with Mission Control for biomedical support. To enable such autonomy, we are developing a Crew State and Risk Model (CSRM) as a collection of key physiology domains that drive EVA crew capabilities and workloads. One model component of CSRM is human thermal regulation. In this paper, customized development of a baseline model to predict core body temperature is presented using physiology inputs of heart rate and metabolic rate. The model development dataset included a baseline study where participants (n=6, equal male and female) performed a 5-hour EVA in a two-part session while wearing a hybrid space suit simulator (HS3). The first session included an end-to-end EVA traversing 1500 meters to a geology site and traversing back to a habitat conducting geology, payload relocation, and maintenance operations every 500 meters. The second session included standalone tasks of a 2000-meter traverse followed by geology tasks. Thermal measures of core body temperature, local skin temperature, liquid cooling garment temperature, heart rate, and metabolic rate were collected through the test duration. Multiple regression was used to build a linear equation to predict core body temperature from inputs of heart rate and metabolic rate. Heat storage was calculated via predicted core body temperature plus LCG and skin temperatures. The model was tested against a dataset from a pressurized suited test (n=6, equal male and female) in the NASA Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) conducting similar end-to-end EVA and standalone tasks. Predicted error of the model against the raw test cases was 0.2±0.15 °C. The baseline prediction of core body temperature using heart rates and metabolic rates allows for simple real-time tracking from data collected in-flight to monitor crew consumables and thermal flight limits during EVA.

Bradley Hoffmann↗
NASA NTRS1985

Error growth in operational ECMWF forecasts

A parameterization scheme used at the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting to model the average growth of the difference between forecasts on consecutive days was extended by including the effect of error growth on forecast model deficiencies. Error was defined as the difference between the forecast and analysis fields during the verification time. Systematic and random errors were considered separately in calculating the error variance for a 10 day operational forecast. A good fit was obtained with measured forecast errors and a satisfactory trend was achieved in the difference between forecasts. Fitting six parameters to forecast errors and differences that were performed separately for each wavenumber revealed that the error growth rate grew with wavenumber. The saturation error decreased with the total wavenumber and the limit of predictability, i.e., when error variance reaches 95 percent of saturation, decreased monotonically with the total wavenumber.

Kalnay, E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Gravitational lensing of quasars as seen by the Hubble Space Telescope Snapshot Survey

Results from the ongoing HST Snapshot Survey are presented, with emphasis on 152 high-luminosity, z greater than 1 quasars. One quasar among those observed, 1208 + 1011, is a candidate lens system with subarcsecond image separation. Six other quasars have point sources within 6 arcsec. Ground-based observations of five of these cases show that the companion point sources are foreground Galactic stars. The predicted lensing frequency of the sample is calculated for a variety of cosmological models. The effect of uncertainties in some of the observational parameters upon the predictions is discussed. No correlation of the drift rate with time, right ascension, declination, or point error is found.

Maoz, D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A predictability study of Lorenz's 28-variable model as a dynamical system

The dynamics of error growth in a two-layer nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model has been studied to gain an understanding of the mathematical theory of atmospheric predictability. The growth of random errors of varying initial magnitudes has been studied, and the relation between this classical approach and the concepts of the nonlinear dynamical systems theory has been explored. The local and global growths of random errors have been expressed partly in terms of the properties of an error ellipsoid and the Liapunov exponents determined by linear error dynamics. The local growth of small errors is initially governed by several modes of the evolving error ellipsoid but soon becomes dominated by the longest axis. The average global growth of small errors is exponential with a growth rate consistent with the largest Liapunov exponent. The duration of the exponential growth phase depends on the initial magnitude of the errors. The subsequent large errors undergo a nonlinear growth with a steadily decreasing growth rate and attain saturation that defines the limit of predictability. The degree of chaos and the largest Liapunov exponent show considerable variation with change in the forcing, which implies that the time variation in the external forcing can introduce variable character to the predictability.

Krishnamurthy, V.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Design of a digital voice data compression technique for orbiter voice channels

Candidate techniques were investigated for digital voice compression to a transmission rate of 8 kbps. Good voice quality, speaker recognition, and robustness in the presence of error bursts were considered. The technique of delayed-decision adaptive predictive coding is described and compared with conventional adaptive predictive coding. Results include a set of experimental simulations recorded on analog tape. The two FM broadcast segments produced show the delayed-decision technique to be virtually undegraded or minimally degraded at .001 and .01 Viterbi decoder bit error rates. Preliminary estimates of the hardware complexity of this technique indicate potential for implementation in space shuttle orbiters.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1981

Software models: A Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in the Jelenski-Moranda software reliability model

Maximum likelihood estimation procedures for the Jelinski-Moranda software reliability model often give misleading answers. A reparameterization and a Bayesian analysis eliminate some of the problems incurred by MLE methods and often give better predictions on sets of real and simulated data. Practical difficulties in estimating the initial number of errors N and the failure rate of each error phi by the method of maximum likelihood are: N, the MLE of N, is occasionally infinite (i.e., the routines for calculating N and phi do not converge). It is shown that N is finite sub i only if the regression line of the interevent times t sub i vs. i has positive slope. A serious problem is that often N approximates n, the sample size, and sometimes N = n. Thus the MLE predicts that the program is perfect even when it is far from being so. Only when almost all failures have been removed can N and phi be trusted near the end of debugging.

Littlewood, B.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Prediction, evaluation, and specification of flying qualities by means of step target tracking

A new approach to flying qualities specification and evaluation is presented which coordinates current research in the areas of pilot ratings, pilot-aircraft modeling techniques, and simulation and flight test procedures. A time-domain pilot model is described which can model discontinuous and nonlinear pilot behavior in conjunction with completely general time-varying nonlinear aircraft models to simulate discrete maneuvers. This pilot-aircraft model is applied to an existing set of in-flight simulation data, and calculates tracking error and time-on-target statistics for step target tracking that directly relate to the reported pilot comments and ratings. Predicted step target tracking data for eighteen F-5E flight conditions are presented, and the use of the method for control system design is demonstrated using the YF-17.

Onstott, E. D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Steady-state phase error for a phase-locked loop subjected to periodic Doppler inputs

The performance of a carrier phase locked loop (PLL) driven by a periodic Doppler input is studied. By expanding the Doppler input into a Fourier series and applying the linearized PLL approximations, it is easy to show that, for periodic frequency disturbances, the resulting steady state phase error is also periodic. Compared to the method of expanding frequency excursion into a power series, the Fourier expansion method can be used to predict the maximum phase error excursion for a periodic Doppler input. For systems with a large Doppler rate fluctuation, such as an optical transponder aboard an Earth orbiting spacecraft, the method can be applied to test whether a lower order tracking loop can provide satisfactory tracking and thereby save the effect of a higher order loop design.

Chen, C.-C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Standard solar model. II - g-modes

The paper presents the g-mode oscillation for a set of modern solar models. Each solar model is based on a single modification or improvement to the physics of a reference solar model. Improvements were made to the nuclear reaction rates, the equation of state, the opacities, and the treatment of the atmosphere. The error in the predicted g-mode periods associated with the uncertainties in the model physics is predicted and the specific sensitivities of the g-mode periods and their period spacings to the different model structures are described. In addition, these models are compared to a sample of published observations. A remarkably good agreement is found between the 'best' solar model and the observations of Hill and Gu (1990).

Guenther, D. B.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Wind Prediction Accuracy for Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools

The performance of Air Traffic Management and flight deck decision support tools depends in large part on the accuracy of the supporting 4D trajectory predictions. This is particularly relevant to conflict prediction and active advisories for the resolution of conflicts and the conformance with of traffic-flow management flow-rate constraints (e.g., arrival metering / required time of arrival). Flight test results have indicated that wind prediction errors may represent the largest source of trajectory prediction error. The tests also discovered relatively large errors (e.g., greater than 20 knots), existing in pockets of space and time critical to ATM DST performance (one or more sectors, greater than 20 minutes), are inadequately represented by the classic RMS aggregate prediction-accuracy studies of the past. To facilitate the identification and reduction of DST-critical wind-prediction errors, NASA has lead a collaborative research and development activity with MIT Lincoln Laboratories and the Forecast Systems Lab of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This activity, begun in 1996, has focussed on the development of key metrics for ATM DST performance, assessment of wind-prediction skill for state of the art systems, and development/validation of system enhancements to improve skill. A 13 month study was conducted for the Denver Center airspace in 1997. Two complementary wind-prediction systems were analyzed and compared to the forecast performance of the then standard 60 km Rapid Update Cycle - version 1 (RUC-1). One system, developed by NOAA, was the prototype 40-km RUC-2 that became operational at NCEP in 1999. RUC-2 introduced a faster cycle (1 hr vs. 3 hr) and improved mesoscale physics. The second system, Augmented Winds (AW), is a prototype en route wind application developed by MITLL based on the Integrated Terminal Wind System (ITWS). AW is run at a local facility (Center) level, and updates RUC predictions based on an optimal interpolation of the latest ACARS reports since the RUC run. This paper presents an overview of the study's results including the identification and use of new large mor wind-prediction accuracy metrics that are key to ATM DST performance.

Cole, Rod↗
NASA NTRS2002

Scale Dependence of Statistics of Spatially Averaged Rain Rate Seen in TOGA COARE Comparison with Predictions from a Stochastic Model

A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they in general depend on the space and time scales over which rain data are averaged. As a part of an earlier effort to determine the sampling error of satellite rain averages, a space-time model of rainfall statistics was developed to describe the statistics of gridded rain observed in GATE. The model allows one to compute the second moment statistics of space- and time-averaged rain rate which can be fitted to satellite or rain gauge data to determine the four model parameters appearing in the precipitation spectrum - an overall strength parameter, a characteristic length separating the long and short wavelength regimes and a characteristic relaxation time for decay of the autocorrelation of the instantaneous local rain rate and a certain 'fractal' power law exponent. For area-averaged instantaneous rain rate, this exponent governs the power law dependence of these statistics on the averaging length scale $L$ predicted by the model in the limit of small $L$. In particular, the variance of rain rate averaged over an $L \times L$ area exhibits a power law singularity as $L \rightarrow 0$. In the present work the model is used to investigate how the statistics of area-averaged rain rate over the tropical Western Pacific measured with ship borne radar during TOGA COARE (Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Response Experiment) and gridded on a 2 km grid depends on the size of the spatial averaging scale. Good agreement is found between the data and predictions from the model over a wide range of averaging length scales.

Kundu, Prasun K.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Quantifying predictability variations in a low-order ocean-atmosphere model - A dynamical systems approach

The predictability of the weather and climatic states of a low-order moist general circulation model is quantified using a dynamic systems approach, and the effect of incorporating a simple oceanic circulation on predictability is evaluated. The predictability and the structure of the model attractors are compared using Liapunov exponents, local divergence rates, and the correlation and Liapunov dimensions. It was found that the activation of oceanic circulation increases the average error doubling time of the atmosphere and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system by 10 percent and decreases the variance of the largest local divergence rate by 20 percent. When an oceanic circulation develops, the average predictability of annually averaged states is improved by 25 percent and the variance of the largest local divergence rate decreases by 25 percent.

Nese, Jon M.↗
NASA NTRS1978

X-ray fluorescence analysis for prediction of Space Shuttle solid rocket motor performance

Analysis of uncured solid propellant by X-ray fluorescence has been conducted on mixes prepared for four development motors produced for the Space Shuttle SRM Project. X-ray readings for chlorine (ammonium perchlorate) and iron (ferric oxide) were recorded for each mix during processing of the propellant. These values were used to predict burning rates for uncured acceptance, uncured acoustic emission and cured acoustic emission strands. Predicted burning rates all fell within control limits and when compared to actual burning rates, most were within experimental error. The X-ray analysis required one-third the time of current methods and met casting schedules.

Pulsipher, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Precision Attitude Determination for an Infrared Space Telescope

We have developed performance simulations for a precision attitude determination system using a focal plane star tracker on an infrared space telescope. The telescope is being designed for the Destiny mission to measure cosmologically distant supernovae as one of the candidate implementations for the Joint Dark Energy Mission. Repeat observations of the supernovae require attitude control at the level of 0.010 arcseconds (0.05 microradians) during integrations and at repeat intervals up to and over a year. While absolute accuracy is not required, the repoint precision is challenging. We have simulated the performance of a focal plane star tracker in a multidimensional parameter space, including pixel size, read noise, and readout rate. Systematic errors such as proper motion, velocity aberration, and parallax can be measured and compensated out. Our prediction is that a relative attitude determination accuracy of 0.001 to 0.002 arcseconds (0.005 to 0.010 microradians) will be achievable.

Benford, Dominic J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Team Functioning in Long Term Space Missions Using Acoustic and Linguistic Measures

Maintaining optimal team functioning is critical for long-duration space exploration missions, yet traditional monitoring methods, such as self-reports and wearable sensors, often impose operational burdens or suffer from bias. This paper investigates a non-intrusive speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) framework to predict degradations in team functioning using data from the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Using acoustic features, linguistic descriptors, and semantic embeddings, we evaluate static non-linear and temporal machine learning models to predict both objective (task accuracy) and subjective (self-reported efficacy and cohesion) team functioning outcomes. Results indicate that temporal models outperform static approaches, with prediction of objective task accuracy in Team Interaction Battery (TIB) improving from near chance to 71%. Self-reported outcomes, including team efficacy and cohesion, are predicted more reliably than task performance, achieving balanced accuracies of up to 85.56% and 78.12%, respectively, and are found to be most strongly associated with acoustic features. In a second interdependent task, the MMSEV–EVA, accuracies of up to 78% are achieved using temporal models with acoustic features. Furthermore, incorporating just 1–2 days of team-specific historical data systematically improved performance, and acoustic markers from informal pre-task interactions provided modest predictive gains. Finally, while automated preprocessing yielded viable accuracy, humancorrected data provided moderate performance gains, though transcription error rates did not significantly correlate with model performance. These findings highlight the potential of speech as a passive, high-fidelity monitoring tool for autonomous habitats.

Temporal modeling↗
NASA NTRS1980

Validation of the solar heating and cooling high speed performance (HISPER) computer code

Developed to give a quick and accurate predictions HISPER, a simplification of the TRNSYS program, achieves its computational speed by not simulating detailed system operations or performing detailed load computations. In order to validate the HISPER computer for air systems the simulation was compared to the actual performance of an operational test site. Solar insolation, ambient temperature, water usage rate, and water main temperatures from the data tapes for an office building in Huntsville, Alabama were used as input. The HISPER program was found to predict the heating loads and solar fraction of the loads with errors of less than ten percent. Good correlation was found on both a seasonal basis and a monthly basis. Several parameters (such as infiltration rate and the outside ambient temperature above which heating is not required) were found to require careful selection for accurate simulation.

Wallace, D. B.↗
NASA NTRS2001

An extensometer for global measurement of bone strain suitable for use in vivo in humans

An axial extensometer able to measure global bone strain magnitudes and rates encountered during physiological activity, and suitable for use in vivo in human subjects, is described. The extensometer uses paired capacitive sensors mounted to intraosseus pins and allows measurement of strain due to bending in the plane of the extensometer as well as uniaxial compression or tension. Data are presented for validation of the device against a surface-mounted strain gage in an acrylic specimen under dynamic four-point bending, with square wave and sinusoidal loading inputs up to 1500 mu epsilon and 20 Hz, representative of physiological strain magnitudes and frequencies. Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) between extensometer and strain gage ranged from 0.960 to 0.999. Mean differences between extensometer and strain gage ranged up to 15.3 mu epsilon. Errors in the extensometer output were directly proportional to the degree of bending that occurs in the specimen, however, these errors were predictable and less than 1 mu epsilon for the loading regime studied. The device is capable of tracking strain rates in excess of 90,000 mu epsilon/s.

Non-NASA Center↗