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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Evaluation of Temporal Spacing Errors Associated with Interval Management Algorithms

This paper seeks to characterize the temporal spacing errors resulting from the use of Interval Management (IM) algorithms. The focus of the current paper is IM concepts and algorithms that realize a specified temporal spacing between a Target aircraft and an Ownship aircraft at the runway threshold. The paper presents an IM algorithm consisting of the following four modules: (i) Target-Landing-Time Estimation Module, (ii) Ownship-Landing-Time Estimation Module, (iii) Ownship Speed Command Computation Module, and (iv) Ownship Thrust Command Computation Module. The overall guidance module is evaluated on a simulation that models aircraft point-mass dynamics, bank-angle auto-pilot dynamics, pitch-axis auto-pilot dynamics, and engine lag dynamics. The simulation environment also consists of actual atmospheric forecasts and realistic spatio-temporally correlated wind uncertainty models. Results obtained from single case simulation as well as Monte-Carlo simulations are presented in the paper. The modeled scenario consisted of an A320 Target equipped with “Lateral Navigation”/“Vertical Navigation” (LNAV/VNAV) capabilities followed by an A320 Ownship equipped with the IM algorithm. Both aircraft fly the BIGSUR route to SFO airport using a RAP-13 1-hr wind forecast. 500 Monte-Carlo simulations were conducted with realistic wind uncertainty models. The IM algorithm for this case is seen to have a 90% probability landing time error range of 5.9 seconds, compared to the no-IM solution, which has a 90% probability landing time error range of 33.4 seconds.

Bai, Xiaoli↗
NASA NTRS2016

Aircraft Fault Detection Using Real-Time Frequency Response Estimation

A real-time method for estimating time-varying aircraft frequency responses from input and output measurements was demonstrated. The Bat-4 subscale airplane was used with NASA Langley Research Center's AirSTAR unmanned aerial flight test facility to conduct flight tests and collect data for dynamic modeling. Orthogonal phase-optimized multisine inputs, summed with pilot stick and pedal inputs, were used to excite the responses. The aircraft was tested in its normal configuration and with emulated failures, which included a stuck left ruddervator and an increased command path latency. No prior knowledge of a dynamic model was used or available for the estimation. The longitudinal short period dynamics were investigated in this work. Time-varying frequency responses and stability margins were tracked well using a 20 second sliding window of data, as compared to a post-flight analysis using output error parameter estimation and a low-order equivalent system model. This method could be used in a real-time fault detection system, or for other applications of dynamic modeling such as real-time verification of stability margins during envelope expansion tests.

Grauer, Jared A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Exploratory Study for Continuous-time Parameter Estimation of Ankle Dynamics

Recently, a parallel pathway model to describe ankle dynamics was proposed. This model provides a relationship between ankle angle and net ankle torque as the sum of a linear and nonlinear contribution. A technique to identify parameters of this model in discrete-time has been developed. However, these parameters are a nonlinear combination of the continuous-time physiology, making insight into the underlying physiology impossible. The stable and accurate estimation of continuous-time parameters is critical for accurate disease modeling, clinical diagnosis, robotic control strategies, development of optimal exercise protocols for longterm space exploration, sports medicine, etc. This paper explores the development of a system identification technique to estimate the continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. The effectiveness of this approach is assessed via simulation of a continuous-time model of ankle dynamics with typical parameters found in clinical studies. The results show that although this technique improves estimates, it does not provide robust estimates of continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. Due to this we conclude that alternative modeling strategies and more advanced estimation techniques be considered for future work.

neuromuscular systems↗
NASA NTRS1987

Application of expert systems in project management decision aiding

The feasibility of developing an expert systems-based project management decision aid to enhance the performance of NASA project managers was assessed. The research effort included extensive literature reviews in the areas of project management, project management decision aiding, expert systems technology, and human-computer interface engineering. Literature reviews were augmented by focused interviews with NASA managers. Time estimation for project scheduling was identified as the target activity for decision augmentation, and a design was developed for an Integrated NASA System for Intelligent Time Estimation (INSITE). The proposed INSITE design was judged feasible with a low level of risk. A partial proof-of-concept experiment was performed and was successful. Specific conclusions drawn from the research and analyses are included. The INSITE concept is potentially applicable in any management sphere, commercial or government, where time estimation is required for project scheduling. As project scheduling is a nearly universal management activity, the range of possibilities is considerable. The INSITE concept also holds potential for enhancing other management tasks, especially in areas such as cost estimation, where estimation-by-analogy is already a proven method.

Harris, Regina↗
NASA NTRS1989

An optimal recursive filter for the attitude determination of the Spacelab instrument pointing subsystem

The instrument pointing subsystem (IPS) is a three-axis stabilized platform developed to point various astronomical observation instruments aboard NASA's Shuttle. In order to compensate for system drifts and attitude errors, the IPS utilizes a linearized Kalman filter (LKF) with precomputed gains. Since the a priori gains are generated for an expected system configuration, any system variations result in a suboptimal estimation process. The performance of two real-time estimation filters is compared with that of the current LKF implementation. It is shown that a real-time estimation filter that reduces sensitivity to system variations and preflight computations is feasible.

West, Mark E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimation of Timing Performance with Pulsed Laser Links for Small Satellite PNT

Satellite constellations are growing in size and in utility for applications as diverse as providing reliable, low-latency internet service to rural areas orEarth science missions.This expansion of satellite constellations brings attention to the need for responsive and reliable satellite communication.Current research in the PrecisionSpace Systems Laboratory at the University of Florida focuses on using pulsed laser communications as the method of relaying time signals instead of the radio frequency (RF)signals.The upcoming CLICK (CubeSat Laser Infrared CrosslinK) missions (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University of Florida, NASA Ames Research Center) will demonstrate a spacecraft-to-spacecraft laser communication link and time-transfer.For pre-flight technology assessment of missions such as CLICK, a simulation of a spacecraft constellation in Earth orbit has been created to estimate clock synchronization and precision orbit determination based on measured instrumentation performance.We have developed a novel MATLAB-based numerical simulator to model spacecraft-to-spacecraft laser time-transfer and estimate the offset between the spacecraft clocks over time.This simulation includes timing errors associated with laser pulse generation and detection, as well as non-Gaussian clock drift models.The two on-board clocks modeled are a cesium-based Chip-Scale Atomic Clock (CSAC) and a rubidium-based Miniature Atomic Clock (MAC), both produced by Microchip.An example case of two spacecraft in a circular, low-Earth orbit receiving GPS position, GPS timing, and laser pulse time-of-flight measurements is simulated.The positions and velocities of the two spacecraft at a reference epoch and the constant clock model coefficients are estimated.Polynomial models of different orders were used as clock models. The effect of clock model order on the root-mean-square (RMS) of the clock error is apparent in the case using GPS and lasing measurements, showing that the clock model improves with increasing clock model order. Results compare the estimated clock model of a mission operation that only uses GPS measurements and a mission operation that uses both GPS and laser pulse time-of-flight measurements between spacecraft referenced to their on-board CSACs or on-board MACs. Including lasing measurements reduces the RMS clock model error by approximately 80% of the RMS of the cases with only GPS measurements.This simulation tool can be used to optimize the lasing operations schedule based on mission timing performance objectives. During this presentation, I will discuss the details of the simulation and clock model estimation, as well as discuss the results.I will compare the results of incorporating lasing timing measurements to using only GPS measurements and the outcomes of using different orders of polynomials.

Timing Performance↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Method for Estimating Time-Series PV Production Loss From Solar Tracking Failures

Solar tracking system failures can dramatically reduce photovoltaic (PV) system energy output through suboptimal irradiance capture and self-shading loss. Detecting tracker failures is not always straightforward; unlike other common PV system failures like inverter outages and blown fuses which take portions of a system completely offline, tracker failures only partially reduce output power and can go unnoticed as a result. Additionally, tracker failures can take one of several forms, each with their own loss characteristics. Here we present two methods of detecting tracker failure events from time-series production data and a method for estimating the associated production loss. Compared with existing detection methods, the proposed power-based detection method showed 0-17% reductions in Type I error rate depending on weather conditions. Here, the loss model estimated production loss with low error (mean bias error = -2.3 %, root-mean-squared error = 6%) in a rudimentary validation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1974

Single-tone parameter estimation from discrete-time observations

Estimation of the parameters of a single-frequency complex tone from a finite number of noisy discrete-time observations is discussed. The appropriate Cramer-Rao bounds and maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation algorithms are derived. Some properties of the ML estimators are proved. The relationship of ML estimation to the discrete Fourier transform is exploited to obtain practial algorithms. The threshold effect of one algorithm is analyzed and compared to simulation results. Other simulation results verify other aspects of the analysis.

Rife, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Real-Time Parameter Estimation Using Output Error

Output-error parameter estimation, normally a post- ight batch technique, was applied to real-time dynamic modeling problems. Variations on the traditional algorithm were investigated with the goal of making the method suitable for operation in real time. Im- plementation recommendations are given that are dependent on the modeling problem of interest. Application to ight test data showed that accurate parameter estimates and un- certainties for the short-period dynamics model were available every 2 s using time domain data, or every 3 s using frequency domain data. The data compatibility problem was also solved in real time, providing corrected sensor measurements every 4 s. If uncertainty corrections for colored residuals are omitted, this rate can be increased to every 0.5 s.

Grauer, Jared A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Multiple Input Design for Real-Time Parameter Estimation in the Frequency Domain

A method for designing multiple inputs for real-time dynamic system identification in the frequency domain was developed and demonstrated. The designed inputs are mutually orthogonal in both the time and frequency domains, with reduced peak factors to provide good information content for relatively small amplitude excursions. The inputs are designed for selected frequency ranges, and therefore do not require a priori models. The experiment design approach was applied to identify linear dynamic models for the F-15 ACTIVE aircraft, which has multiple control effectors.

Morelli, Eugene↗
NASA NTRS2026

PERSIANN-Unet: A Global Deep Learning Framework for Near-Real-Time Precipitation Estimation Using Infrared Data

Access to high-quality, high-resolution, near-real-time precipitation data is essential for hydrological and meteorological research and disaster mitigation. Traditional tools such as rain gauges and radar networks, though effective, have limitations, including sparse coverage in remote areas and high operational costs. Satellite data, with its global coverage and high spatial and temporal resolutions, mitigates limitations in coverage. Satellite precipitation products like Hydro Estimator (HE), Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) utilize both geosynchronous thermal infrared (IR) and passive microwave (PMW) data in their operation. PMW sensors offer detailed atmospheric profiles but suffer from higher latency, whereas IR sensors provide lower latency but only capture cloud-top information. Despite this constraint, IR data remains attractive for low-latency precipitation estimation. Recent advances in deep learning, particularly convolutional neural networks (CNNs), have further improved satellite precipitation retrievals. This study introduces PERSIANN-Unet (PUnet or PERSIANN V3), a quasi-global algorithm covering 60°N–60°S that combines IR data, monthly climatology, and the UNet architecture to produce half-hourly precipitation estimates at 0.04° resolution. The product is evaluated against HE, IMERG, and PDIR-Now for 2022–2023. Results show that PUnet closely matches its training target, IMERG V07 Final, at the global scale, and performance is further evaluated against Stage IV as a reference over CONUS. Training PUnet on IMERG (2016–2021) leverages a high-quality, integrated PMW IR-gauge precipitation product while developing an IR-based framework not reliant on PMW availability. By operating on a single global image, PUnet avoids tile partitioning and blending steps, reducing edge discontinuities, and produces more spatially consistent precipitation fields across hemispheres.

Phu Nguyen↗
DOE OSTI2024

Source term estimation using noble gas and aerosol samples

Algorithms that estimate the location, time, and magnitude of a point-source atmospheric release using remotely sampled air concentrations typically use data for a single chemical or radioactive isotope. Here, a Bayesian algorithm is presented that uses data from multiple radioactive isotopes that are all released in the same short-duration event. Data from noble gas and aerosol samplers can be used simultaneously in the model. Application to a large synthetic data set using four isotopes shows the new algorithm generally gives more accurate location and time estimates than a comparable model using a single isotope.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating and Forecasting Time-Varying Groundwater Recharge in Fractured Rock: A State-Space Formulation with Preferential and Diffuse Flow to the Water Table

Rapid infiltration following precipitation may result in groundwater contamination from surface contaminants or pathogens. In fractured rock, contaminants can migrate rapidly to points of groundwater withdrawals. In contrast to the temporal availability of groundwater quality chemical indicators, meteorological and groundwater level observations are available in real-time to estimate time-varying recharge, which can act as a surrogate to identify periods of rapid infiltration that may indicate contamination susceptibility. Estimating recharge using methods, such as base-flow recession, unsaturated infiltration models, or Water-Table Fluctuations (WTF), cannot capitalize on currently available technologies and telecommunication infrastructure to conduct real-time recharge estimation at scales relevant to characterizing rapid infiltration. We present a linear, physics-based State-Space (SS) model of one-dimensional infiltration to estimate recharge, which includes preferential and diffuse-flow to the water table. The model can take advantage of real-time data for water-table altitude, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. Model parameters are calibrated over an observation period, and the Kalman Filter (KF) is subsequently applied to continuously update the observed (water-table altitude) and unobserved (groundwater recharge) system states and predict future states as new data become available. The SS/KF algorithm is demonstrated at the Masser Groundwater Recharge Site in Pennsylvania, USA and comparisons are made with recharge estimates from WTF methods. Model results indicate that the frequency of observations (daily versus sub-daily) dictates the allocation between preferential and diffuse flow. Additionally, because infiltration processes encompass many nonlinearities, model parameters estimated from observation periods need to be updated at least seasonally to account for changing recharge conditions.

groundwater, Recharge, infiltration, recursive est↗
NASA NTRS1993

Neural Network Would Estimate Fatigue Life

Processor learns mappings between sequences of loads and fatigue damage. Data processor built around neural network provides real-time estimates of fatigue life of simple mechanical components. Intended to be forerunner of more-advanced processors that estimates remaining lives of components stressed near their mechanical and thermal limits in turbine engines and other complicated, high-performance machinery. Real-time estimates of accumulated fatigue damage and remaining life before mechanical failure useful in scheduling maintenance and controlling operation to extend overall life of machinery.

Merrill, W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Real-Time State Estimation of Structural Modes for an Aeroelastic Wind Tunnel Model

A method is presented for estimating displacements, velocities, and accelerations of structural modes in generalized coordinates from measured sensor data in real time. Specifically, strain data from conventional strain gauges and fiber optic strain sensors (FOSS) were combined with the strain modes (obtained from a finite element model) in a least-squares estimator to produce structural mode displacement estimates and uncertainties. Likewise, accelerometer data were combined with displacement mode shapes in a second least-squares estimator to produce structural mode acceleration estimates. A Kalman filter was then used to refine the displacement estimates and obtain velocity estimates. The method was applied to the half-span wind tunnel test article used in the NASA-Boeing collaboration called the Integrated Adaptive Wing Technology Maturation (IAWTM) project. The technique was found to be useful for real-time control and system identification applications.

Jared A. Grauer↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Method for Real-Time State Estimation of Structural Modes for an Aeroelastic Wind Tunnel Model

A method for estimating displacements, velocities, and accelerations of structural modes in generalized coordinates from measured sensor data in real time is developed and demonstrated. Data from conventional strain gauges and fiber optic strain sensors (FOSS) were combined with strain mode shapes to produce least-squares estimates of the structural mode displacements. Similarly, accelerometer data were combined with displacement mode shapes to estimate structural mode accelerations. Estimates were then combined using a Kalman filter to refine the displacement estimates and produce structural mode velocity estimates. The approach was demonstrated using simulation data for the NASA-Boeing collaboration called the Integrated Adaptive Wing Technology Maturation (IAWTM) project in both a stable open-loop condition and an unstable condition where estimated displacement and velocity states were used for feedback control. Results supported the feasibility of using this approach for feedback control and system identification applications for wind tunnel tests.

Aeroservoelasticity↗
NASA NTRS2011

Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Integration, Evaluation and Transition

NASA's Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) research activity is assessing the use of surface trajectory-based takeoff (OFF) time estimates for en route domain departure scheduling in Call For Release situations. Current aircraft departure release times computed by an Air Traffic Management decision support tool to meet Call For Release constraints are based on coarse estimates of aircraft OFF times. Uncertainty in OFF time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into an overhead stream and lost throughput. However, technology exists to improve OFF time estimates by using more accurate aircraft trajectory predictions available in NextGen airport surface management decision support tools. PDRC findings are expected to be broadly applicable to NextGen integrated arrival/departure/surface implementations. For concept development and evaluation purposes this research activity integrates NASA's Surface Management System (SMS) OFF time prediction capabilities with Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) departure scheduling functions. PDRC field evaluations are being conducted at the North Texas (NTX) Research Station. The NASA/FAA Integrated Arrival/Departure/Surface Research Transition Team is using PDRC as a pathfinder for developing technology transfer mechanisms and procedures.

Engelland, Shawn A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian estimation of HIV acquisition dates for prevention trials

Accurate timing estimates of when participants acquire HIV in HIV prevention trials are necessary for determining antibody levels at acquisition. The Antibody-Mediated Prevention (AMP) Studies showed that a passively administered broadly neutralizing antibody can prevent the acquisition of HIV from a neutralization-sensitive virus. We developed a pipeline for estimating the date of detectable HIV acquisition (DDA) in AMP Study participants using diagnostic and viral sequence data. Using a Bayesian strategy that combines three streams of data (REN [rev/vpu/env/Δnef] sequence, GP [gag/Δpol] sequence, and diagnostic) where their 95% credible intervals overlap based on pre-specified criteria and decision rules. We evaluated the performance of our AMP pipeline using PacBio viral sequence data from 41 participants across two prospective acute HIV acquisition cohort studies, FRESH and RV217, with twice-weekly sampling. These cohort studies enrolled young women in South Africa and men and women in Kenya and Thailand, respectively, with a high likelihood of HIV acquisition. In evaluating performance, “true DDA” was the center of bounds between last-negative and first-positive RNA diagnostic tests (median time 4 days, range 2–7 days); bias was the mean difference between estimated and true DDA. Using diagnostic data alone yielded timing estimates with a bias of 2.4 days and root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.9 days. These results were improved using sequence + diagnostic data (bias 1.5 days, RMSE 6.9 days), as well as by restricting sequence-based estimation to samples from ≤5 weeks post-DDA (bias 0.2 days, RMSE 7.8 days).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗