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Results for “Exploratory Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Exploratory Study for Continuous-time Parameter Estimation of Ankle Dynamics

Recently, a parallel pathway model to describe ankle dynamics was proposed. This model provides a relationship between ankle angle and net ankle torque as the sum of a linear and nonlinear contribution. A technique to identify parameters of this model in discrete-time has been developed. However, these parameters are a nonlinear combination of the continuous-time physiology, making insight into the underlying physiology impossible. The stable and accurate estimation of continuous-time parameters is critical for accurate disease modeling, clinical diagnosis, robotic control strategies, development of optimal exercise protocols for longterm space exploration, sports medicine, etc. This paper explores the development of a system identification technique to estimate the continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. The effectiveness of this approach is assessed via simulation of a continuous-time model of ankle dynamics with typical parameters found in clinical studies. The results show that although this technique improves estimates, it does not provide robust estimates of continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. Due to this we conclude that alternative modeling strategies and more advanced estimation techniques be considered for future work.

neuromuscular systems↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Subjective Assessment of Alternative Mission Architecture Operations Concepts for the Human Exploration of Mars at NASA Using a Three-Dimensional Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model

The primary driver for developing missions to send humans to other planets is to generate significant scientific return. NASA plans human planetary explorations with an acceptable level of risk consistent with other manned operations. Space exploration risks can not be completely eliminated. Therefore, an acceptable level of cost, technical, safety, schedule, and political risks and benefits must be established for exploratory missions. This study uses a three-dimensional multi-criteria decision making model to identify the risks and benefits associated with three alternative mission architecture operations concepts for the human exploration of Mars identified by the Mission Operations Directorate at Johnson Space Center. The three alternatives considered in this study include split, combo lander, and dual scenarios. The model considers the seven phases of the mission including: 1) Earth Vicinity/Departure; 2) Mars Transfer; 3) Mars Arrival; 4) Planetary Surface; 5) Mars Vicinity/Departure; 6) Earth Transfer; and 7) Earth Arrival. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and subjective probability estimation are used to captures the experts belief concerning the risks and benefits of the three alternative scenarios through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes.

Tavana, Madjid↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust Solution Verification Experiments on Nonuniform Meshes

The activities of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) provide a comprehensive means to assess the credibility of computational models. Within VVUQ, solution verification assesses numerical errors and evaluates whether the simulation is sufficiently accurate for its intended applications. As computational modeling gains traction in the development of complex, high-consequence systems, the need for robust solution verification intensifies, particularly because experimental data for these systems are often limited. This work examines improvements in the robustness of Richardson extrapolation (RE), a method commonly used in solution verification to study the discretization error of computational models using a power law. Nonuniform mesh refinement is discussed alongside other pollutants that affect the robustness of the power law model. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is proposed as a robust strategy to address the uncertainty generated by nonuniform mesh refinement. An exploratory computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of a 2D planar Poiseuille flow is conducted to determine if nonuniform mesh noise can be modeled with this MLE approach for more robust RE.

Weinmeister, Justin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000160090237↗
DOE OSTI2024

Systemic immunological responses are dependent on sex and ovarian hormone presence following acute inhaled woodsmoke exposure

Background: Rural regions of the western United States have experienced a noticeable surge in both the frequency and severity of acute wildfire events, which brings significant challenges to both public safety and environmental conservation efforts, with impacts felt globally. Identifying factors contributing to immune dysfunction, including endocrinological phenotypes, is essential to understanding how hormones may influence toxicological susceptibility. Methods: This exploratory study utilized male and female C57BL/6 mice as in vivo models to investigate distinct responses to acute woodsmoke (WS) exposure with a focus on sex-based differences. In a second set of investigations, two groups were established within the female mouse cohort. In one group, mice experienced ovariectomy (OVX) to simulate an ovarian hormone-deficient state similar to surgical menopause, while the other group received Sham surgery as controls, to investigate the mechanistic role of ovarian hormone presence in driving immune dysregulation following acute WS exposure. Each experimental cohort followed a consecutive 2-day protocol with daily 4-h exposure intervals under two conditions: control HEPA-filtered air (FA) and acute WS to simulate an acute wildfire episode. Results: Metals analysis of WS particulate matter (PM) revealed significantly increased levels of 63 Cu, 182 W, 208 Pb, and 238 U, compared to filtered air (FA) controls, providing insights into the specific metal components most impacted by the changing dynamics of wildfire occurrences in the region. Male and female mice exhibited diverse patterns in lung mRNA cytokine expression following WS exposure, with males showing downregulation and females displaying upregulation, notably for IL-1β, TNF-α, CXCL-1, CCL-5, TGF-β, and IL-6. After acute WS exposure, there were notable differences in the responses of macrophages, neutrophils, and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) cytokines IL-10, IL-6, IL-1β, and TNF-α. Significant diverse alterations were observed in BAL cytokines, specifically IL-1β, IL-10, IL-6, and TNF-α, as well as in the populations of immune cells, such as macrophages and polymorphonuclear leukocytes, in both Sham and OVX mice, following acute WS exposure. These findings elucidated the profound influence of hormonal changes on inflammatory outcomes, delineating substantial sex-related differences in immune activation and revealing altered immune responses in OVX mice due to ovarian hormone deficiency. In addition, the flow cytometry analysis highlighted the complex interaction between OVX surgery, acute WS exposure, and their collective impact on immune cell populations within the hematopoietic bone marrow niche. Conclusions: In summary, both male and female mice, alongside females subjected to OVX and those who had sham surgery, exhibit significant variations in the expression of proinflammatory cytokines, chemokines, lung mRNA gene expression, and related functional networks linked to signaling pathways. These differences potentially act as mediators of sex-specific and hormonal influences in the systemic inflammatory response to acute WS exposure during a wildfire event. Understanding the regulatory roles of genes expressed differentially under environmental stressors holds considerable implications, aiding in identifying sex-specific therapeutic targets for addressing acute lung inflammation and injury.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1974

Effect of gravity on methane-air combustion

Analytical and numerical techniques dealing with the theoretical description of the influence of zero and reduced gravitational acceleration on diffusion flames, with a view to improving understanding of fires in space vehicles, were developed in support of experimental work performed in this area. This was done in order to confirm qualitative understanding of the process, to determine the quantitative accuracy of numerical predictions, and to establish a mathematical model of the process for subsequent use as a predictive and exploratory tool. The following results were accomplished: (1) derivation of differential equations and boundary conditions describing the system, (2) details of the computations, using a FORTRAN computer program, for calculating the flow and heat and mass transfer in two dimensions (both steady and unsteady). It was shown that the experimental behavior can be reproduced with fair accuracy, provided that the time step is sufficiently short.

Elghobashi, S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wildfire Emergency Response Hazard Extraction and Analysis of Trends (HEAT) through Natural Language Processing and Time Series

A methodology for Hazard Extraction and Analysis of Trends (HEAT) is proposed and conducted on a data set of wildfire incident response forms, known as ICS-209-PLUS.The HEAT processes: (1) extract a set of hazards from a data set, (2) calculate hazard-relevant metrics in a primary analysis, (3) analyze trends over time in metrics using timeseries, and (4) examine potential explanations for metric trends using a secondary analysis. Hazards are extracted from narrative data in the ICS-209-PLUS based on a framework previously developed by the authors, using natural language processing. Metrics examined for each hazard include operational time to occurrence, rate of occurrence, frequency, and severity. Primary results include a taxonomy of hazards present in the data set with relevant quantitative metrics. The most frequent hazards identified are environmental and include hazardous terrain. Most hazards occur on average between 35-55% containment. Incidents with hazards tend to have a higher average severity score when compared to the average score for all incidents. Time series of the metrics and relevant predictors, including fire characteristics, fire intensity, and operations, are created to facilitate further analysis. Secondary results used to determine which factors best predict hazard frequency include a correlation matrix and regression analysis. These findings are relevant to safety for current, as well as emerging wildfire operations, and are an exploratory first step in developing historical data-driven risk assessment models.

Sequoia R. Andrade↗
NASA NTRS1999

Applications of Constituent Data Assimilation Systems

Organizations in Europe, Australia, and the United States have recently broadened constituent assimilation activities beyond that water vapor, which has been assimilated for years in the numerical weather prediction community. Many of these activities have focused on ozone, with some efforts focused on the entire suite of reactive constituents that control the ozone distribution. This talk will draw from results from the near real-time ozone data assimilation system being run by NASA's Data Assimilation Office. This system utilizes ozone observations from both the TOMS and the SBUV instrument to generate global synoptic maps of ozone. The initial application of this product is to provide ozone fields to assist in the atmospheric corrections' that are necessary for the retrieval of information from other NASA instruments. The validation of the ozone assimilation system shows that the assimilated product agrees well with independent HALOE and ozonesonde observations. This suggests that the product is of sufficient quality to be extended to other applications. This talk will enumerate these other applications and present initial results from exploratory research. The applications being considered include estimates of tropospheric ozone, provision of ozone fields for interactive retrievals, use of analysis increments from the assimilation to evaluate model performance, and development of long-term consistent three-dimensional global ozone fields. The results from the exploratory studies are promising, and help demonstrate how assumptions made in the p development of the ozone assimilation impact the other applications. For instance, RMS errors in the current product are large near the tropopause, which is sensitive to the specification of vertical correlation functions, which in turns impacts the amount of ozone analyzed to be in the troposphere. How these sensitivities impact the different applications will also be discussed.

Rood, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Results from NASA's Near Real Time Ozone Data Assimilation Systems

Organizations in Europe, Australia, and the United States have recently broadened constituent assimilation activities beyond water vapor, which has been assimilated for years in the numerical weather prediction applications. Many of these activities have focused on ozone, with some efforts focused on the entire suite of reactive constituents that control the ozone distribution. This talk will draw from results from the near real-time ozone data assimilation system being run by NASA's Data Assimilation Office. This system utilizes ozone observations from both the TOMS and the SBUV instrument to generate global synoptic maps of ozone. The initial application of this product is to provide ozone fields to assist in the atmospheric corrections' that are necessary for the retrieval of information from other NASA instruments. The validation of the ozone assimilation system shows that the assimilated product agrees well with independent HALOE and ozonesonde observations. Aside from providing a global synoptic map, there is verifiable geophysical information at higher vertical resolution than either of the date types input into the system. This talk will establish the validation results and enumerate applications of the ozone data assimilation system. Results from exploratory research will be presented. The applications being considered include estimates of tropospheric ozone, provision of ozone fields for interactive retrievals, use of analysis increments from the assimilation to evaluate model performance, and development of long-term consistent three-dimensional global ozone fields. The results from the exploratory studies are promising, and help demonstrate how assumptions made in the development of the ozone assimilation impact the other applications. For instance, RMS errors in the current product are large near the tropopause, which is sensitive to the specification of vertical correlation functions, which in turns impacts the amount of ozone analyzed to be in the troposphere. How these sensitivities impact the different applications will also be discussed.

Rood, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS1991

PEM-West trajectory climatology and photochemical model sensitivity study prepared using retrospective meteorological data

Trajectory and photochemical model calculations based on retrospective meteorological data for the operations areas of the NASA Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM)-West mission are summarized. The trajectory climatology discussed here is intended to provide guidance for flight planning and initial data interpretation during the field phase of the expedition by indicating the most probable path air parcels are likely to take to reach various points in the area. The photochemical model calculations which are discussed indicate the sensitivity of the chemical environment to various initial chemical concentrations and to conditions along the trajectory. In the post-expedition analysis these calculations will be used to provide a climatological context for the meteorological conditions which are encountered in the field.

Merrill, John T.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Transonic flutter and gust-response tests and analyses of a wind-tunnel model of a torsion-free-wing fighter airplane

The paper reports the results of analytical and exploratory wind-tunnel studies of the transonic flutter and gust response characteristics of a 1/5.5-size complete-airplane version of a torsion-free-wing (TFW) fighter aircraft. The critical flutter mode for the TFW-free configuration was found to occur at M = 0.95 and had the rigid-TFW pitch mode as its apparent aerodynamic driver. However, the minimum dynamic flutter for the TFW-free case was only about 20% lower than for the TFW-locked; therefore the present TFW is a viable design concept with respect to flutter. The present TFW was not effective as a gust alleviator.

Ruhlin, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Leading edge vortex-flap experiments on a 74 deg delta wing

Exploratory wind tunnel tests are reported on a 74 deg. delta wing model. The potential of a vortex flap concept in reducing the subsonic lift dependent drag of highly swept, slender wings is examined. The suction effect of coiled vortices generated through controlled separation over leading edge flap surfaces to produce a thrust component is discussed. A series of vortex-flap configurations were investigated to explore the effect of some primary geometric variables.

Rao, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Computational and Experimental Study of Energetic Materials in a Counterflow Microgravity Environment

Counterflow diffusion flames are studied for various fuels flowing against decomposition products from solid ammonium perchlorate (AP) pellets in order to obtain fundamental understanding of composite propellant flame structure and chemistry. We illustrate this approach through a combined experimental and numerical study of a fuel mixture consisting of C2H4 CO + H2, and C2H2 + C2H4 flowing against solid AP. For these particular AP-fuel systems, the resulting flame zone simulates the various flame structures that are ex+ to exist between reaction products from Ap crystals and a hydrocarbon binder. As in all our experimental studies, quantitative species and temperature profiles have been measured between the fuel exit and AP surface. Species measured included CN, NH, NO, OH, N2, CO2, CO, H2, CO, HCl, and H2O. Temperature was measured using a thermocouple at the exit, spontaneous Raman scattering measurements throughout the flame, OH rotational population distributions, and NO vibrational population distributions. The burning rate of AP was also measured as a function of strain rate, given by the separation distance between the AP surface and the gaseous hydrocarbon fuel tube exit plane. This distance was nominally set at 5 mm, although studies have been performed for variations in separation distance. The measured 12 scalars are compared with predictions from a detailed gas-phase kinetics model consisting of 86 species and 531 reactions. Model predictions are found to be in good agreement with experiment and illustrate the type of kinetic features that may be expected to occur in propellants when AP particle size distributions are varied. Furthermore, the results constitute the continued development of a necessary database and validation of a comprehensive model for studying more complex AP-solid fuel systems in microgravity. Exploratory studies have also been performed with liquid and solid fuels at normal gravity. Because of melting (and hence dripping) and deep thermal wave penetration into the liquid, these experiments were found feasible, but not used for obtaining quantitative data. Microgravity experiments are needed to eliminate the dripping and boiling phenomena of these systems at normal gravity. Microgravity tests in the NASA Glenn 2.2 second drop tower were performed (1) to demonstrate the feasibility of performing propellant experiments using the NASA Glenn microgravity facilities, (2) to develop the operational procedures for safe handing of the energetic materials and disposal of their toxic combustion by-products and (3) to obtain initial measurements of the AP burning rate and flame structure under microgravity conditions. Experiments were conducted on the CH4/AP system previously studied at normal gravity using a modified design of the counterflow burner and a NASA Glenn Pig Rig, i.e., one of the existing drop rigs for general-purpose usage. In these experiments, the AP burning rate was measured directly with a linear variable differential transducer (LVDT) and video imaging of the flame structure was recorded ignition was achieved by hot wires stretched across the AP surfaces. Initial drop tower combustion data show that with the same burner separation distance and flow conditions of the normal gravity experiments, the AP burning rate is approximately a factor of two lower. This difference is likely a result of radiation effects, but further tests with longer test times need to be conducted to verify that steady state conditions were achieved under microgravity conditions.

Takahashi, Fumiaki↗
DOE OSTI2026

Automated ICRF heating surrogate modeling via machine learning

This work introduces automated machine learning workflows that address critical bottlenecks in surrogate model development for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) heating applications. The automated framework includes data analysis tools that transform raw datasets into actionable insights in seconds, replacing weeks of manual exploratory effort and ensuring consistent, reproducible dataset characterization. By integrating advanced hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods including Bayesian optimization via BoTorch and Tree-structured Parzen Estimators (TPE), the framework significantly reduces model development time from weeks to hours, decreasing computational cost and required expertise, while enabling high-accuracy surrogate models. Compared to traditional hyperparameter scanning (HPS) techniques such as methodical, randomized, and grid searches, HPO methods achieve superior convergence and predictive performance, even when compared to already well-tuned reference models. On NSTX High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating datasets, both Random Forest Regressor (RFR) and neural network surrogates demonstrate improved accuracy, achieving R 2 values beyond 0.97 and 0.98, respectively. The results show that while HPO gains are modest for robust architectures like RFR, they become essential for more sensitive models such as neural networks, highlighting the trade-offs across optimization strategies. Through automated workflows that eliminate manual hyperparameter tuning and require minimal ML expertise, this work enables widespread adoption of high-fidelity surrogate models across the fusion community for real-time plasma control, uncertainty quantification, rapid experimental scenario development, and integrated system optimization.

Sanchez-Villar, Alvaro [Princeton Plasma Physics L↗
NASA NTRS2001

Radiation transport modeling and assessment to better predict radiation exposure, dose, and toxicological effects to human organs on long duration space flights

NASA is very interested in improving its ability to monitor and forecast the radiation levels that pose a health risk to space-walking astronauts as they construct the International Space Station and astronauts that will participate in long-term and deep-space missions. Human exploratory missions to the moon and Mars within the next quarter century, will expose crews to transient radiation from solar particle events which include high-energy galactic cosmic rays and high-energy protons. Because the radiation levels in space are high and solar activity is presently unpredictable, adequate shielding is needed to minimize the deleterious health effects of exposure to radiation. Today, numerous models have been developed and used to predict radiation exposure. Such a model is the Space Environment Information Systems (SPENVIS) modeling program, developed by the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronautics. SPENVIS, which has been assessed to be an excellent tool in characterizing the radiation environment for microelectronics and investigating orbital debris, is being evaluated for its usefulness with determining the dose and dose-equivalent for human exposure. Thus far. the calculations for dose-depth relations under varying shielding conditions have been in agreement with calculations done using HZETRN and PDOSE, which are well-known and widely used models for characterizing the environments for human exploratory missions. There is disagreement when assessing the impact of secondary radiation particles since SPENVIS does a crude estimation of the secondary radiation particles when calculating LET versus Flux. SPENVIS was used to model dose-depth relations for the blood-forming organs. Radiation sickness and cancer are life-threatening consequences resulting from radiation exposure. In space. exposure to radiation generally includes all of the critical organs. Biological and toxicological impacts have been included for discussion along with alternative risk mitigation methods--shielding and anti-carcinogens. c 2001. Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

STS-91 Shuttle Project↗
NASA NTRS1987

Stochastic nature of Landsat MSS data

A multiple series generalization of the ARIMA models is used to model Landsat MSS scan lines as sequences of vectors, each vector having four elements (bands). The purpose of this work is to investigate if Landsat scan lines can be described by a general multiple series linear stochastic model and if the coefficients of such a model vary as a function of satellite system and target attributes. To accomplish this objective, an exploratory experimental design was set up incorporating six factors, four representing target attributes - location, cloud cover, row (within location), and column (within location) - and two factors representing system attributes - satellite number and detector bank. Each factor was included in the design at two levels and, with two replicates per treatment, 128 scan lines were analyzed. The results of the analysis suggests that a multiple AR(4) model is an adequate representation across all scan lines. Furthermore, the coefficients of the AR(4) model vary with location, particularly changes in physiography (slope regimes), and with percent cloud cover, but are insensitive to changes in system attributes.

Labovitz, M. L.↗