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NASA NTRS1994

Kinetics model for initiation and promotion for describing tumor prevalence from HZE radiation

A kinetics model for cellular repair and misrepair for multiple radiation-induced lesions (mutation-inactivation) is coupled to a two-mutation model of initiation and promotion in tissue to provide a parametric description of tumor prevalence in the Harderian gland in a mouse. Dose-response curves are described for gamma-rays and relativistic ions. The effects of nuclear fragmentation are also considered for high-energy proton and alpha particle exposures The model described provides a parametric description of age-dependent cancer induction for a wide range of radiation fields. We also consider the two hypotheses that radiation acts either solely as an initiator or as both initiator and promoter and make model calculations for fractionation exposures from gamma-rays and relativistic Fe ions. For fractionated Fe exposures, an inverse dose-rate effect is provided by a promotion hypothesis using a mutation rate for promotion typical of single-gene mutations.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Initiation-promotion model of tumor prevalence in mice from space radiation exposures

Exposures in space consist of low-level background components from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), occasional intense-energetic solar-particle events, periodic passes through geomagnetic-trapped radiation, and exposure from possible onboard nuclear-propulsion engines. Risk models for astronaut exposure from such diverse components and modalities must be developed to assure adequate protection in future NASA missions. The low-level background exposures (GCR), including relativistic heavy ions (HZE), will be the ultimate limiting factor for astronaut career exposure. We consider herein a two-mutation, initiation-promotion, radiation-carcinogenesis model in mice in which the initiation stage is represented by a linear kinetics model of cellular repair/misrepair, including the track-structure model for heavy ion action cross-sections. The model is validated by comparison with the harderian gland tumor experiments of Alpen et al. for various ion beams. We apply the initiation-promotion model to exposures from galactic cosmic rays, using models of the cosmic-ray environment and heavy ion transport, and consider the effects of the age of the mice prior to and after the exposure and of the length of time in space on predictions of relative risk. Our results indicate that biophysical models of age-dependent radiation hazard will provide a better understanding of GCR risk than models that rely strictly on estimates of the initial slopes of these radiations.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS2001

Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2000

Validation of Aircraft Noise Prediction Models at Low Levels of Exposure

Aircraft noise measurements were made at Denver International Airport for a period of four weeks. Detailed operational information was provided by airline operators which enabled noise levels to be predicted using the FAA's Integrated Noise Model. Several thrust prediction techniques were evaluated. Measured sound exposure levels for departure operations were found to be 4 to 10 dB higher than predicted, depending on the thrust prediction technique employed. Differences between measured and predicted levels are shown to be related to atmospheric conditions present at the aircraft altitude.

Page, Juliet A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Validation of Aircraft Noise Prediction Models at Low Levels of Exposure

Page, Juliet A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Fifteen-minute Extravehicular Activity Prebreathe Protocol Using NASA's Exploration Atmosphere (8.2 psia/ 34% 02)

A TBDM DCS probability model based on an existing biophysical model of inert gas bubble growth provides significant prediction and goodness-of-fit with 84 cases of DCS in 668 human altitude exposures. 2. Model predictions suggest that 15-minute O2 prebreathe protocols used in conjunction with suit ports and an 8.2 psi, 34% O2, 66% N2 atmosphere may enable rapid EVA capability for future exploration missions with the risk of DCS ≤ 12%.  EVA could begin immediately at 6.0 psi, with crewmembers decreasing suit pressure to 4.3 psi after completing the 15-minute in-suit prebreathe. 3. Model predictions suggest that intermittent recompression during exploration EVA may reduce decompression stress by 1.8% to 2.3% for 6 hours of total EVA time. Savings in gas consumables and crew time may be accumulated by abbreviating the EVA suit N2 purge to 2 minutes (20% N2) compared with 8 minutes (5% N2) at the expense of an increase in estimated decompression risk of up to 2.4% for an 8-hour EVA.  Increased DCS risk could be offset by IR or by spending additional time at 6 psi at the beginning of the EVA.  Savings of 0.48 lb of gas and 6 minutes per person per EVA corresponds to more than 31 hours of crew time and 1800 lb of gas and tankage under the Constellation lunar architecture. 6. Further research is needed to characterize and optimize breathing mixtures and intermittent recompression across the range of environments and operational conditions in which astronauts will live and work during future exploration missions. 7. Development of exploration prebreathe protocols will begin with definition of acceptable risk, followed by development of protocols based on models such as ours, and, ultimately, validation of protocols through ground trials before operational implementation.

Abercromby, Andrew F. J.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive spectra-to-exposure conversion using ridge regularized polynomial response models

Real-time gamma spectra-to-exposure conversion in aerial and ground monitoring commonly relies on calibration-derived, detector- or system-specific conversion coefficients that are assumed to generalize across operational environments. In practice, deployment specific differences in spectral composition and transport conditions can introduce systematic bias relative to reference instruments, motivating methods that adapt coefficients using minimal field supervision while explicitly limiting overfitting. In this work, we present a conservative coefficient adaptation framework that updates a baseline polynomial energy-weighting function using ridge-regularized regression, with leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) used to select the regularization strength. The findings support ridge-constrained minimal-supervision adaptation as a practical mechanism to suppress site-specific bias without destabilizing a calibration-derived baseline.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

NASA NTRS1994

Two-sample discrimination of Poisson means

This paper presents a statistical test for detecting significant differences between two random count accumulations. The null hypothesis is that the two samples share a common random arrival process with a mean count proportional to each sample's exposure. The model represents the partition of N total events into two counts, A and B, as a sequence of N independent Bernoulli trials whose partition fraction, f, is determined by the ratio of the exposures of A and B. The detection of a significant difference is claimed when the background (null) hypothesis is rejected, which occurs when the observed sample falls in a critical region of (A, B) space. The critical region depends on f and the desired significance level, alpha. The model correctly takes into account the fluctuations in both the signals and the background data, including the important case of small numbers of counts in the signal, the background, or both. The significance can be exactly determined from the cumulative binomial distribution, which in turn can be inverted to determine the critical A(B) or B(A) contour. This paper gives efficient implementations of these tests, based on lookup tables. Applications include the detection of clustering of astronomical objects, the detection of faint emission or absorption lines in photon-limited spectroscopy, the detection of faint emitters or absorbers in photon-limited imaging, and dosimetry.

Lampton, M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Watching Without Seeing a Tool to Surveil Astronaut Health Outcomes While Maintaining Astronaut Medical Privacy

BACKGROUND The Privacy Act of 1974 regulates the use a nd disclosure of personally identifiable information by US Federal agencies. The Act applies to biographical, financial, a nd other identity-linked information, a s well a s personal health information (PHI). As such, the use of astronaut PHI is limited to authorized personnel for preapproved uses, with data reporting often limited to aggregated information about groups. These limitations on the use a nd reporting of astronaut PHI complicates surveillance efforts, wherein epidemiologists a t the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)monitor the incidence of targeted health conditions in the astronaut population, or to discover emerging trends of aging and disease. Stratification on one or more covariates –particularly time-period, sex, a nd mission participation –can lead to extremely small datasets such that the reporting of results is potentially attributable to individuals. An additional challenge is the small size of the astronaut population, both in terms of numbers of individuals a s well a s in terms of density of exposure time. Such small datasets yield volatile rate estimates that are difficult to interpret. To a id the epidemiological surveillance efforts, a surveillance tool is required that can (a) satisfy the need for rapid computation of condition-specific incidence and mortality rates; (b) improve the statistical estimates of these estimated rates; and (c) maintain astronaut privacy. Here we describe a nd demonstrate such a tool. METHODS We devised a system that models incidence a nd mortality rates rather than calculating them directly. This ha s the advantage of using all the available data to derive the estimates, lea ding to rates that a re not attributable to any one individual, a nd a re a s numerically stable a s they can be given the extremely limited data. The system models disease endpoints using a Poisson regression model with exposure density (measured in person-years) a s a n offset term. By doing so the model is estimating event counts per person-year, equivalent to modeling the rates directly. It uses a standard (pre-specified)set of covariates; the system does not engage in “model-building” as model parsimony is not the goa l. Instead, it is explicitly recognized that if a covariate is not statistically significant a nd not a confounder then it will likely have very little effect on the estimate of the incidence a nd mortality rates. Users are able to specify the disease endpoint of interest and the covariates over which they would like to stratify. The system then uses the resulting model to compute the estimated rates for the user-chosen configuration of variables as visualizes those either over an age range within a specified time-period, or over time for astronauts with a specified age range. RESULTS The first iteration of the tool computes incidence a nd mortality rates for cardiovascular conditions and cancers. Code ha s been developed to retrieve the appropriate data from the IMPALA analysis platform, compute the models for incidence a nd mortality, a nd then use those models to generate the corresponding rate curves. A companion graphical user interface allows the user to specify the curves and visualize the results. CONCLUSIONS It is important to note that the rapid surveillance tool described here is neither meant to be a definitive assessment of the incidence or mortality of any particular disease or condition in the astronaut population, nor is it meant to be used for research purposes. Rather, it is meant as an early indicator that in-depth investigation may be warranted. By automating a repetitive process and leveraging carefully curated astronaut health outcomes, the tool makes possible a rapid “first look” into known areas of concern, and, if used judiciously, may surface new areas of concern for long-term astronaut health. This work is supported in part by the Translational Research Institute for Space Health (TRISH) through NASA Cooperative Agreement NNX16AO69A.

R J Reynolds↗

NASA NTRS1987

Chromospheric activity in open clusters

Spectra of Ca II H and K are being taken for stars of similar mass in the Hyades, the Pleiades, and NGC 752. These spectra will be used to create indices of chromospheric activity on these stars. The dispersion in these indices will then be compared to model dispersions which take into account stellar inclination, position of active regions, and filling factor. Only a few observations have been made to date. These show that a high signal to noise is achievable over reasonable exposure times. Modeling has only just begun.

Pilger, E. J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

INVESTIGATION OF ROCK-FLUID INTERACTIONS USING GEOMATERIAL MICROFLUIDICS

Illite and Illite-Smectite clays are reportedly the Caney Shale's most prevalent clay minerals. The swelling and fines migration of clays may occur when water-based fluids contact the clay minerals. This may result in the reduction of pore space and permeability, and wettability alteration. Therefore, we quantified the swelling potentials, fines migration and wettability alteration of Illite and Illite-Smectite clays upon exposure to model brines and a produced water, and a model oil and a crude oil. We measured density, viscosity, pH, TDS, and interfacial tension as they are important in multiphase flow and displacement characteristics. Geomaterial microfluidics is recently being used to study physicochemical interactions of solid-fluid systems. It facilitates visualizing the surface behavior upon exposure to various fluids. This study includes preparation and characterization of Illite-Smectite clay-coated glass capillary tubes. Illite and Illite-Smectite clay-coated geomaterial microfluidic surfaces were prepared to investigate the effects of first contact fluid, brine salinity, and aging on wettability. In this work, advancing and receding contact angles of model brine-air, model oil-air, produced water-air, crude oil-air, model brine-model oil systems, and produced water-crude oil systems have been measured in the untreated, and clay-coated microfluidic channels of 1000 µm width and 50 µm depth. The aging effect was studied by retaining the non-aqueous and aqueous solutions in the corresponding microfluidic channels for approximately 24 h in the case of channels first contacted by aqueous and non-aqueous solutions, respectively. The advancing and receding contact angles of Caney shale-crude oil-produced water systems were also measured. The experimental findings indicate the swelling potential, fines migration, and wettability alteration of Illite and Illite-Smectite clays. The results signify the influence of first contact fluid, brine salinity, and aging on wettability of the untreated and clay-coated microfluidic surfaces. The experiments also demonstrate the wetting nature of the Caney shale samples from reservoir and non-reservoir zones.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2024

Potential reductions in fine particulate matter and premature mortality following implementation of air pollution controls on coal-fired power plants in India

Coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) account for > 70% of electricity generation in India, but < 5% of facilities have installed technologies for sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and nitrogen oxide (NO X ) removal. Emissions of these pollutants lead to the formation of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and an increased risk of premature mortality for exposed populations. Here, we use a nested version of the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (0.5° × 0.625° resolution) for India to estimate reductions in PM 2.5 concentrations that could have been achieved by implementing existing emission control technologies like flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and/or selective catalytic reduction (SCR). We quantify the associated burden of disease using the integrated exposure response (IER) and global exposure mortality model (GEMM) functions and compare the costs of premature mortality to those for FGD installation. Model simulations for 2010 suggest installation of FGD would have reduced mean annual PM 2.5 concentrations across India by 8%, compared to 3% with SCR installation, and 11% with both FGD and SCR. A 7–28% reduction in PM 2.5 was simulated for local communities closest to CFPPs (same model grid cell), leading to up to 17% reduction in annual premature mortality. Overall, more than 0.21–0.48 million premature deaths would have been avoided over a 10-year period if FGD had been implemented on all CFPPs, compared to 0.09–0.21 million with SCR and 0.22–0.72 million with both FGD and SCR. Benefits associated with such actions are approximately $\$18.1$–$\$604$ billion USD per year, which is equivalent to ~ 0.44 to 10% of India’s GDP. These results suggest that monetary benefits from avoided premature mortality far outweigh the capital and operational costs of FGD and/or SCR installation of $\$19.5$ billion and/or $\$32.8$ billion per year, respectively. This information is essential because the high costs of installation and operation are often given as reasons for delaying installation and commissioning. Finally, we conclude that policy actions to control air pollution from CFPPs are economically justifiable.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

NASA NTRS2015

Determination of Roles of Microgravity and Ionizing Radiation on the Reactivation of Epstein-Barr Virus In Vitro

Astronauts experience symptomatic and asymptomatic herpes virus reactivation during spaceflight. We have shown increases in reactivation of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), cytomegalovirus (CMV) and varicella zoster virus (VZV) and shedding in body fluids (saliva and urine) in astronauts during space travel. Alterations in immunity, increased stress hormone levels, microgravity, increased radiation, and other conditions unique to spaceflight may promote reactivation of latent herpes viruses. Unique mechanico-physico forces associated with spaceflight can have profound effects on cellular function, especially immune cells. In space flight analog studies such as Antarctica, bed rest studies, and NASA's undersea habitat (Aquarius), reactivation of these viruses occurred, but to a lesser extent than spaceflight. Spaceflight analogs model some spaceflight factors, but none of the analogs recreates all factors experienced in space. Most notably, microgravity and radiation are not included in many analogs. Stress, processed through the HPA axis and SAM systems, induces viral reactivation. However, the respective roles of microgravity and increased space radiation levels or if any synergy exists are not known. Therefore, we studied the effect of modeled space radiation and/or microgravity, independent of the immune system on the changes in cellular gene expression that results in viral (EBV) reactivation. The effects of modeled microgravity and low shear on EBV replication and cellular and EBV gene expression were studied in human B-lymphocyte cell cultures. Latently infected B-lymphocytes were propagated in the rotating wall bioreactor and irradiated with the various dosages of gamma irradiation. At specific time intervals following exposure to modeled microgravity, the cells and supernatant were harvested and reactivation of EBV were assessed by measuring EBV and gene expression, DNA methylation, and infectious virus production.

Mehta, Satish K↗

NASA NTRS2000

Radiation Transport Modeling and Assessment to Better Predict Radiation Exposure, Dose, and Toxicological Effects to Human Organs on Long Duration Space Flights

NASA's long-range plans include possible human exploratory missions to the moon and Mars within the next quarter century. Such missions beyond low Earth orbit will expose crews to transient radiation from solar particle events which include high-energy galactic cosmic rays and high-energy protons. Because the radiation levels in space are high and the missions long, adequate shielding is needed to minimize the deleterious health effects of exposure to radiation. The focus of this study is radiation exposure to the blood-forming organs of the NASA astronauts. NASA/JSC developed the Phantom Torso Experiment for Organ Dose Measurements which housed active and passive dosimeters that would monitor and record absorbed radiation levels at vital organ locations. This experiment was conducted during the STS-9 I mission in May '98 and provided the necessary space radiation data for correlation to results obtained from the current analytical models used to predict exposure to the blood-forming organs. Numerous models (i.e., BRYNTRN and HZETRN) have been developed and used to predict radiation exposure. However, new models are continually being developed and evaluated. The Space Environment Information Systems (SPENVIS) modeling program, developed by the Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, is to be used and evaluated as a part of the research activity. It is the intent of this research effort to compare the modeled data to the findings from the STS-9 I mission; assess the accuracy and efficiency of this model; and to determine its usefulness for predicting radiation exposure and developing better guidelines for shielding requirements for long duration manned missions.

Denkins, Pamela↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning for the Validation of Expert-Elicited Causal Risk Diagrams

Exposure to spaceflight poses risk to human health in complex ways. To help manage this risk, the Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) maintains a set of causal diagrams that attempt to explain how spaceflight hazards generate health risks and lead to adverse outcomes both in-mission, immediately post-mission, and over the long term. These causal risk diagrams are formulated as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and can function as knowledge graphs of connected risks and outcomes. These DAGs have proven useful for communication, and, through network analysis, have allowed for the identification of structurally important factors in the risk network. However, the utility these DAGs provide is directly proportional to their verisimilitude, making assessment of this trait using empirical data – whether from actual human spaceflight or various spaceflight analogue exposures and model organisms – a high priority. In this research we explore the use of machine learning algorithms to learn DAG structure from empirical data as a means of evaluating human-elicited DAG structures. To do so, we test several different graph structure-learning algorithms on data concerning changes in the bones of rats and mice after exposure to either spaceflight or a spaceflight analogue. We explore potential methods for indexing the similarity between each algorithm’s output DAG with all the others and with that of the expert-elicited DAG. We discuss next steps in this ongoing line of research and open science initiatives underway to complete them.

directed acyclic graphs↗

NASA NTRS2005

Iapetus and Phoebe as Measured by the Cassini UVIS

The bizarre appearance of Iapetus has long intrigued researchers of this Saturnian moon. The leading hemisphere is very dark and reddish in color at visible-near-IR wavelengths. In contrast, the trailing hemisphere is relatively bright and its near-IR spectrum is dominated by water ice. The severe hemispherical brightness dichotomy has been explained by both endogenic and exogenic models. The primary endogenic model involves eruption of dark material onto the leading hemisphere from the interior of Iapetus. Exogenic models include exposure of dark underlying material by micrometeorite bombardment, contamination of Iapetus leading hemisphere by Titan tholin material, and the coating of the leading hemisphere by Phoebe dust. It has been shown that the dark material on Iapetus leading hemisphere is redder in color at visible wavelengths than Phoebe, which is spectrally gray at visible wavelengths. An additional exogenic model involves the coating of both Iapetus leading hemisphere and Hyperion with material from small retrograde satellites, which are reddish in color at visible wavelengths. We present the first FUV spectra of Iapetus and Phoebe to investigate whether the UV wavelength range can contribute to solving the puzzle of Iapetus.

Hendrix, A. R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Immune Response in Microgravity: Genetic Basis and Countermeasure Development Implications

Impairment of the immunity in astronauts and cosmonauts even in shortterm flights is a recognized risk. Longterm orbital space missions and anticipated interplanetary flights increase the concern for more pronounced effects on the immune system with potential clinical consequences. Studies in true and modeled microgravity (MG) have demonstrated that MG directly affects numerous lymphocyte functions. The purpose of this study was to screen for genes involved in lymphocytes response to modeled microgravity (MMG) that could explain the functional and structural changes observed earlier. The microgravity-induced changes in gene expression were analyzed by microarray DNA chip technology. CD3and IL2activated Tcells were cultured in 1g (static) and modeled microgravity (NASA Rotating Wall Vessel bioreactor) conditions for 24 hours. Total RNA was extracted using the RNeasy isolation kit (Qiagen, Valencia, CA). Microarray experiments were performed utilizing Affymetrix Gene Chips (U133A), allowing testing for 18,400 human genes. To decrease the biological variation and aid in detecting microgravity-associated changes, experiments were performed in triplicate using cells obtained from three different donors. Exposure to modeled microgravity resulted in alteration of 89 genes, 10 of which were upregulated and 79 down-regulated. Altered genes were categorized by their function, structural role and by association with metabolic and regulatory pathways. A large proportion was found to be involved in fundamental cellular processes: signal transduction, DNA repair, apoptosis, and multiple metabolic pathways. There was a group of genes directly related to immune and inflammatory responses (IL7R, granulysin, proteasome activator subunit 2, peroxiredoxin 4, HLADRA, lymphocyte antigen 75, IL18R and DOCK2 genes). Among these genes only one (IL7R) was upregulated, the rest were downregulated. The upregulation of the IL7 receptor gene was confirmed by RT PCR. Three genes with altered expression were identified in the apoptosis related group (Granzyme B, APO2 ligand and Beta3endonexin). All of them were downregulated. Gene expression changes in MG might appear pivotal in identifying potential molecular targets for countermeasure development. (Supported by NRA OLMSA02 and NSCORT NAG54072 grants).

Risin, Diana↗

NASA NTRS2007

Biochemical Kinetics Model of DSB Repair and GammaH2AX FOCI by Non-homologous End Joining

We developed a biochemical kinetics approach to describe the repair of double strand breaks (DSB) produced by low LET radiation by modeling molecular events associated with the mechanisms of non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ). A system of coupled non-linear ordinary differential equations describes the induction of DSB and activation pathways for major NHEJ components including Ku(sub 70/80), DNA-PK(sub cs), and the Ligase IV-XRCC4 hetero-dimer. The autophosphorylation of DNA-PK(sub cs and subsequent induction of gamma-H2AX foci observed after ionizing radiation exposure were modeled. A two-step model of DNA-PK(sub cs) regulation of repair was developed with the initial step allowing access of other NHEJ components to breaks, and a second step limiting access to Ligase IV-XRCC4. Our model assumes that the transition from the first to second-step depends on DSB complexity, with a much slower-rate for complex DSB. The model faithfully reproduced several experimental data sets, including DSB rejoining as measured by pulsed-field electrophoresis (PFGE), quantification of the induction of gamma-H2AX foci, and live cell imaging of the induction of Ku(sub 70/80). Predictions are made for the behaviors of NHEJ components at low doses and dose-rates, where a steady-state is found at dose-rates of 0.1 Gy/hr or lower.

Cucinotta, Francis, A.↗