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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Application of Remote Sensing using NASA Earth Observations paired with Sociodemographic Indicators to Identify Communities Most Susceptible to Urban Heat Exposure in Austin, Texas

In recent years, Austin, Texas has experienced an increase in population and urban development. Additionally, the City’s climate—already characterized by periods of extreme heat and drought—continues to change. As temperatures and demand for utilities and cooling resources rise, the number of heat-related deaths and illnesses in socially vulnerable populations (e.g., older, lower-income populations) is expected to increase. The City of Austin, The University of Texas at Austin (UT Austin), and The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UT Health) partnered with NASA DEVELOP to examine the distribution of urban heat throughout the City. This project used land surface temperature, greenness, plant water content, and urban surface material analysis parameters derived from NASA Earth observations from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), and Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The project team produced three different indices to create a spatial analysis for the study area including a social vulnerability index (SoVI), heat exposure index (HEI), and an overall heat priority index (HPI) score. This overall score was determined with a weighted analysis of heat-related environmental variables from NASA Earth observations and socioeconomic data from the 2019 American Community Survey. Based on the HPI score, the project team identified 121 census block groups out of 605 total that are designated as being most at risk of adverse impacts from extreme heat events. To test the sensitivity of the HPI, the team used a Monte Carlo analysis using different approaches for geographic scale, variable inclusion, census uncertainty, and index aggregation. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the resulting HPI score showed the metric was consistent with the baseline HPI. This provided increased confidence the score can be used as a tool to make informed infrastructure improvement plans in targeted areas (e.g., siting of cooling centers) and ensure equitable sustainable development.

Ryan Hammock↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing the cooling effectiveness of operationalisable urban surface combination scenarios for summer heat mitigation

Extreme summer heat in cities exacerbates the vulnerability of urban communities to heatwaves. Vegetative and reflective urban surfaces can help reduce urban heat. This study investigated the impacts of urban trees, green roofs and cool roofs on heat mitigation during average and extreme summer conditions in temperate oceanic Melbourne, Australia. We simulated the city climate using ‘The Air Pollution Model’ (TAPM) at a 1 km spatial resolution over 10 years, which according to our review of the literature, was the most prolonged period for simulation in Melbourne. During a widespread heatwave event, some of the tested scenarios with combined surface parameters could reduce the extreme values of the energy budget components- sensible heat, latent heat, and storage heat fluxes up to seasonal averages compared to the existing situation for Melbourne (control). The scenario with the highest (reasonable maximum) ground-level vegetation, green roofs, and cool roofs could reduce air temperatures up to 2.4 °C. The simulations suggest that a combined strategy with vegetative and high-albedo surfaces will deliver higher effectiveness with maximum cooling benefits and cost-effectiveness than individual strategies in cities. These results suggest the importance of collaborative strategic planning of urban surfaces to make cities healthier, sustainable, and liveable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heat metrics and thresholds reshape population exposure and inequality signals

Extreme heat is intensifying worldwide, yet estimates of heat hazard and exposure inequality depend on both the heat metric and how extreme days are defined. Using summer 2022 across the Mediterranean, we quantify population heat exposure with four metrics—land surface temperature (LST), air temperature (Ta), heat index (HI), and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT)—under absolute (fixed-value) and relative (anomaly-based) thresholds. Under absolute thresholds, total heat exposure differs by more than two orders of magnitude across metrics (31.3 billion person-days for Ta vs 0.3 billion for HI). Geographic hotspots also diverge: WBGT concentrates in humid coastal North Africa (e.g. the Nile Delta), whereas Ta and LST are more widespread. Under relative thresholds, exposure totals converge and cross-metric hotspot agreement increases (e.g. Ta–WBGT top-tercile overlap increases from 10.7% to 29.0%), shifting hotspots toward densely populated southern Europe. Crucially, the exposure–deprivation relationship also reverses across threshold frameworks: absolute thresholds concentrate exposure in more deprived North Africa and the Middle East, whereas relative thresholds shift the burden toward less-deprived European cities. This sensitivity is decision-relevant: city rankings based on WBGT exposure duration are almost completely reordered when switching threshold frameworks. Threshold choice therefore systematically reshapes hotspot patterns and inequality signals. Reporting both absolute and relative exposures can reveal hidden hotspots and support more targeted heat-risk monitoring and intervention planning.

Mediterranean↗
NASA NTRS2013

Downscaling MODIS Land Surface Temperature for Urban Public Health Applications

This study is part of a project funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Program, which focuses on Earth science applications of remote sensing data for enhancing public health decision-making. Heat related death is currently the number one weather-related killer in the United States. Mortality from these events is expected to increase as a function of climate change. This activity sought to augment current Heat Watch/Warning Systems (HWWS) with NASA remotely sensed data, and models used in conjunction with socioeconomic and heatrelated mortality data. The current HWWS do not take into account intra-urban spatial variation in risk assessment. The purpose of this effort is to evaluate a potential method to improve spatial delineation of risk from extreme heat events in urban environments by integrating sociodemographic risk factors with estimates of land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal remote sensing data. In order to further improve the consideration of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat, we also developed and evaluated a number of spatial statistical techniques for downscaling the 1-km daily MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data to 60 m using Landsat-derived LST data, which have finer spatial but coarser temporal resolution than MODIS. In this paper, we will present these techniques, which have been demonstrated and validated for Phoenix, AZ using data from the summers of 2000-2006.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗
NASA NTRS2013

Downscaling MODIS Land Surface Temperature for Urban Public Health Applications

This study is part of a project funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Program, which focuses on Earth science applications of remote sensing data for enhancing public health decision-making. Heat related death is currently the number one weather-related killer in the United States. Mortality from these events is expected to increase as a function of climate change. This activity sought to augment current Heat Watch/Warning Systems (HWWS) with NASA remotely sensed data, and models used in conjunction with socioeconomic and heatrelated mortality data. The current HWWS do not take into account intra-urban spatial variation in risk assessment. The purpose of this effort is to evaluate a potential method to improve spatial delineation of risk from extreme heat events in urban environments by integrating sociodemographic risk factors with estimates of land surface temperature (LST) derived from thermal remote sensing data. In order to further improve the consideration of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat, we also developed and evaluated a number of spatial statistical techniques for downscaling the 1-km daily MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data to 60 m using Landsat-derived LST data, which have finer spatial but coarser temporal resolution than MODIS. In this paper, we will present these techniques, which have been demonstrated and validated for Phoenix, AZ using data from the summers of 2000-2006.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Effects of Climate Change on Interregional Electricity Market Dynamics on the U.S. West Coast

The United States (U.S.) West Coast power system is strongly influenced by variability and extremes in air temperatures (which drive electricity demand) and streamflows (which constrain hydropower production). As hydroclimate changes across the West Coast, a combination of forces may work in tandem to make its bulk power system more vulnerable to physical reliability issues and market price shocks. In particular, a warmer climate is expected to increase summer cooling (electricity) demands and shift the average timing of peak streamflow (hydropower production) away from summer to the spring and winter, depriving power systems of hydropower when it is needed the most. Here, we investigate how climate change could alter interregional electricity market dynamics on the West Coast, including the potential for hydroclimatic changes in one region (e.g. Pacific Northwest (PNW)) to “spill over” and cause price and reliability risks in another (e.g. California). We find that the most salient hydroclimatic risks for the PNW power system are changes in streamflow, while risks for the California system are driven primarily by changes in summer air temperatures, especially extreme heat events that increase peak system demand. Altered timing and amounts of hydropower production in the PNW do alter summer power deliveries into California but show relatively modest potential to impact prices and reliability there. Instead, it is future climate conditions (extreme heat) in California that may exert a stronger significant influence on prices and reliability in the PNW, especially if California continues to rely on its northern neighbor for imported power to meet higher summer demands.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2019

Challenges in Qualification of Thermal Protection Systems for Extreme Entry Environments

Planetary entry vehicles employ ablative TPS materials to shield the aeroshell from entry aeroheating environments. To ensure mission success, it must be demonstrated that the heatshield system, including local features such as seams, does not fail at conditions that are suitably margined beyond those expected in flight. Furthermore, its thermal response must be predictable, with acceptable fidelity, by computational tools used in heatshield design. Mission assurance is accomplished through a combination of ground testing and material response modelling. A material's robustness to failure is verified through arcjet testing while its thermal response is predicted by analytical tools that are verified against experimental data. Due to limitations in flight-like ground testing capability and lack of validated high-fidelity computational models, qualification of heatshield materials is often achieved by piecing together evidence from multiple ground tests and analytical simulations, none of which fully bound the flight conditions and vehicle configuration. Extreme heating environments (>2000 W/cm2 heat flux and >2 atm pressure), experienced during entries at Venus, Saturn and Ice Giants, further stretch the current testing and modelling capabilities for applicable TPS materials. Fully-dense Carbon Phenolic was the material of choice for these applications; however, since heritage raw materials are no longer available, future uses of re-created Carbon Phenolic will require re-qualification. To address this sustainability challenge, NASA is developing a new dual-layer material based on 3D weaving technology called Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environments (HEEET) [1]. Regardless of TPS material, extreme environments pose additional certification challenges beyond what has been typical in recent NASA missions.Scope of this presentation: This presentation will give an overview of challenges faced in verifying TPS performance at extreme heating conditions.

Mahzari, Milad↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recent Advances in the U.S. in Ablative TPS for In-situ Exploration of Giant Planets

The Decadal Survey report released [1] prioritizes Uranus as the highest priority Flagship class mission to be explored with an orbiter and a probe and it also recommended Saturn Probe under New Frontiers mission class. Thermal protection system (TPS) is essential for Uranus and Saturn probe missions. The two cardinal requirements are that it must be fail-safe and yet be mass efficient. The Decadal Survey report also pointed out the readiness of heatshield for extreme entry environment technology (HEEET) at TRL 6 for probe missions at Gas Giants. HEEET relies on 3-D weaving and is shown to be a robust and mass efficient TPS through ground testing and analysis. HEEET was matured to TRL 6 in 2019. HEEET was reported at the Ice Giant Workshop in 2019 at Marseille. Since 2019, significant advances have been made primarily because of Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission. MSR baselined 3-D Woven TPS as its heatshield for the earth entry system. MSR earth entry system (EES) requirements and the resulting heatshield/TPS requirements are most stringent of all entry missions. This is a result of backward contamination protection which classifies MSR as a “restricted class 5” mission to safeguard the accidental release of potentially hazardous Mars Sample into Earth’s atmosphere. Complex requirements for the heatshield start with micro-meteor impact tolerance followed by the requirement for steep entry to minimize the size of the impact footprint which results in extreme heating. The heatshield is part of the impact attenuation system. The EES architecture does not use a parachute and is designed to tolerate impact loads. Hence heatshield TPS selection and design becomes one of the key challenges. After completion of the HEEET technology maturation in 2019, IRAD efforts focused on assessing the 3-D Woven family of TPS to MSR EES. After nearly two years of evaluation of alternate TPS such as carbon phenolic, C-C hot structure, PICA, and 3-D woven family of TPS, a single layer 3-D woven TPS derived from the dual-layer HEEET was down selected and is currently the baseline. A new loom capable of weaving the single-layer 3-D woven preform at 80” wide has been designed, assembled and is currently on the verge of weaving the MSR EES TPS. During the HEEET maturation and the follow-on development, the single-layer TPS has been tested at extreme heating conditions. As a result, single layer TPS was recommended and evaluated during the Planetary Mission Concept Studies funded by NASA in preparation for the Decadal committee. In addition, in anticipation of Saturn mission proposals, single layer was evaluated as well. Aerocapture can reduce the trip time, also allow bigger payload fraction and in addition, it allows for the possibility of probe delivery once the spacecraft is in orbit. This can lead to obtaining both in-situ data as well as data from orbit simultaneously. Since Aerocapture depletes energy/velocity, probe delivery from orbit reduces the demand on TPS. Aerocapture was mentioned in the Decadal Study report as ready for implementation, but due to perceived risk it is not adopted by the mission designers. Establishing TPS readiness for aerocapture missions will be addressed. Going one step beyond aerocapture is aerogravity assist if fast return is the goal. Recent studies [4] looked at aerogravity assist and the TPS readiness. This talk will highlight both aerocapture and aerogravity assist from a TPS perspective. The main objective of this proposed talk is to present a comprehensive picture of the SOA TPS technology including recent developments. The talk will highlight advances in manufacturing, results from the Decadal White Papers, PMCS and other studies, and aerocapture and aerogravity assist that could play a role in the near or far term in-situ exploration.

E. Venkatapathy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Desert-Urban SysTem IntegratEd AtmospherIc Monsoon (DUSTIEAIM) in the Southwestern United States

Phoenix, Arizona, is the fifth-largest city in the United States with about 1.6 million residents. It is also considered to be the hottest major city in the country, having set a record of 31 consecutive days with temperatures above 110 F (43 C) in summer 2023. Phoenix depends on the Colorado River for over a third of its water supply, but there are questions about how much water will eventually be available to serve the rapidly growing metropolitan area, especially in such extreme heat. Current earth system models struggle to accurately capture precipitation in the Southwestern United States, especially in relation to the summertime North American Monsoon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1970

Intumescent Coatings as Fire Retardants

The development of fire-retardant coatings to protect surfaces which may be exposed to fire or extreme heat is a subject of intense interest to many industries. A fire-retardant paint has been developed which represents a new chemical approach for preparing intumescent coatings, and potentially, is very important to fire-prevention authorities. The requirements for a superior coating include ease of application, suitability to a wide variety of surfaces and finishes, and stability over an extended period of time within a broad range of ambient temperature and humidity conditions. These innovative coatings, when activated by the heat of a fire, react to form a thick, low-density, polymeric coating or char layer. Water vapor and sulphur dioxide are released during the intumescent reaction. Two fire-protection mechanisms thus become available: (1) the char layer retards the flow of heat, due to the extremely low thermal conductivity; and (2) water vapor and sulfur dioxide are released, providing fire quenching properties. Still another mechanism functions in cases where the char, by virtue of its high oxidation resistance and low thermal conductivity, reaches a sufficiently high temperature to re-radiate much of the incident heat load. The coatings consist of dispersions of selective salts of a nitro-amino-arornatic compound. Specifically, para-nitroaniline bisulfate and the ammonium salt of para-nitroaniline-ortho sulphuric acid (2-amino-5-nitrobenzenesulphuric acid) are used. Suitable vehicles are cellulose nitrate of lacquer grade, a nitrite-phenolic modified rubber, or epoxy-polysulfide copolymer. Three separate formulations have been developed. A solvent is usually employed, such as methylethyl ketone, butyl acetate, or toluene, which renders the coatings suitably thin and which evaporates after the coatings are applied. Generally, the intumescent material is treated as insoluble in the vehicle, and is ground and dispersed in the vehicle and solvent like an ordinary coating pigment. The char found on intumescence is better in terms of yield and physical properties than chars obtained from many previously known intumescent materials. Prior to intumescence, the coating has a density of 85 pounds per cubic foot. After intumescence, the density is approximately 0.3 pounds per cubic loot. The linear expansion of the coatings ranges from 70 to 200 times the applied coating thickness.

Parker, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

San Diego Urban Development: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Identify Drivers of Extreme Urban Heat and Generate a High-Resolution Vulnerability Index for Urban Planning and Climate Resiliency in San Diego, California

Exposure to heat exacerbated by an increase in urbanization as well as increasing global temperatures has become a growing concern for cities and their residents. Excess heat can cause increased heat-related morbidity, mortality, and energy costs. Vulnerability to heat-related illnesses is oftentimes correlated to demographics, socioeconomic status, and pre-existing health conditions. The City of San Diego, California boasts 1.4 million residents and, like many other major cities, has experienced increases in heat-related hospitalizations and mortality. The burden of urban heat is also not equal amongst communities; areas with lower income and communities of color bear a disproportionate burden. In partnership with the City of San Diego, and American Geophysical Union’s (AGU) Thriving Earth Exchange, the DEVELOP team used Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) imagery to identify areas of highest heat based on land surface temperature from 2015-2020. Our analyses showed that health demographics such as obesity and cardiovascular health were the strongest indicators for heat vulnerability. In addition, various inputs (land use/land cover, tree canopy, and building intensity derived from the City of San Diego data along with albedo from Landsat 8) were used in the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model to investigate changes in cooling rates in current and future scenarios for the city. The model results showed that cooling is expected to occur due to a 5% increase in tree canopy. The City of San Diego can use these results to inform the development of the Climate Resilient San Diego plan and prioritize at-risk communities for cooling interventions.

John Dialesandro↗
NASA NTRS2012

On the Causes of and Long Term Changes in Eurasian Heat Waves

The MERRA reanalysis, other observations, and the GEOS-S model have been used to diagnose the causes of Eurasian heat waves including the recent extreme events that occurred in Europe during 2003 and in Russia during 2010. The results show that such extreme events are an amplification of natural patterns of atmospheric variability (in this case a particular large-scale atmospheric planetary wave) that develop over the Eurasian continent as a result of internal atmospheric forcing. The amplification occurs when the wave occasionally becomes locked in place for several weeks to months resulting in extreme heat and drying with the location depending on the phase of the upper atmospheric wave. Model experiments suggest that forcing from both the ocean (SST) and land playa role phase-locking the waves. An ensemble of very long GEOS-S model simulations (spanning the 20th century) forced with observed SST and greenhouse gases show that the model is capable of generating very similar heat waves, and that they have become more extreme in the last thirty years as a result of the overall warming of the Asian continent.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Seasonal Prediction of an Extreme Temperature Index over the United States

Heat extremes have the potential to cause significant societal harm; advanced warming of the frequency of these events for a given season could help with planning and mitigation measures. While an individual temperature extreme event may not be predictable on seasonal time scales, the number of such events could be. In this study, we use an index representing the number of extreme days per summer to examine the ability of NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction system to predict summertime temperature extremes over the continental United States. The index is defined as the number of days per summer (June-August) where the daily mean temperature is above the calendar-day 90th percentile and is computed for 1991-2020 using the GEOS-S2S seasonal retrospective forecasts as well as the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2). Temporal correlations are assessed over this period at the grid point scale, indicating significant correlation between the retrospective forecasts and MERRA-2, particularly in the western half of the United States. Spatial correlations between the retrospective forecast and MERRA-2 indices are computed over the United States for each year revealing year-to-year variability in the forecast skill. We investigate local and remote processes associated with increased prediction skill of summertime temperature extremes in a given year.

Natalie Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inequality in the availability of residential air conditioning across 115 US metropolitan areas

Continued climate change is increasing the frequency, severity, and duration of populations’ high temperature exposures. Indoor cooling is a key adaptation, especially in urban areas, where heat extremes are intensified—the urban heat island effect (UHI)—making residential air conditioning (AC) availability critical to protecting human health. In the United States, the differences in residential AC prevalence from one metropolitan area to another is well understood, but its intra-urban variation is poorly characterized, obscuring neighborhood-scale variability in populations’ heat vulnerability and adaptive capacity. We address this gap by constructing empirically derived probabilities of residential AC for 45,995 census tracts across 115 metropolitan areas. Within cities, AC is unequally distributed, with census tracts in the urban “core” exhibiting systematically lower prevalence than their suburban counterparts. Moreover, this disparity correlates strongly with multiple indicators of social vulnerability and summer daytime surface UHI intensity, highlighting the challenges that vulnerable urban populations face in adapting to climate-change driven heat stress amplification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Eurasian Heat Waves: Mechanisms and Predictability

This study uses the NASA MERRA reanalysis and GEOS 5 model simulations to examine the causes of Eurasian heat waves including the recent extreme events that occurred in Europe during 2003 and in Russia during 2010. The focus is on the warm season and the part of the Eurasian continent that extends north of about 40oN, or roughly to the north of the mean upper tropospheric jet stream. The results show that such extreme events are an amplification of natural patterns of atmospheric variability that develop over the Eurasian continent as a result of internal atmospheric forcing. The amplification occurs when the wave occasionally becomes locked in place for several weeks to months resulting in extreme heat and drying with the location depending on the phase of the upper atmospheric wave. An ensemble of very long GEOS-S model simulations (spanning the 20th century) forced with observed SST and greenhouse gases show that the model is capable of generating very similar heat waves, and that they have become more intense in the last thirty years as a result of the overall warming of the Asian continent. Sensitivity experiments with perturbed initial conditions indicate that these events have limited predictability.

Wang, Hailan↗