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DOE OSTI2025

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Strain to failure measurements of Cr coatings with different processing

Differently processed Cr coatings on Zircaloy cladding were assessed for coating strain to failure. This report includes i) quantification of Cr coating strain to failure for several coating variants, ii) incorporation of high throughput analysis developed utilizing artificial intelligence, and iii) develop a hoop direction coating strain to failure testing approach for high temperatures that doesn’t require digital image correlation strain measurements. Room temperature strain to failure measurements indicated that heat treatment had an impact on strain to failure of the coating, with increasing heat treatment temperature increasing the average strain to failure of the Cr coating.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Failure Strain and Related Triaxiality of Aluminum 6061-T6, A36 Carbon Steel, 304 Stainless Steel, and Nitronic 60 Metals, Part I: Experimental Investigation

The objective of this study is to develop failure-limit material models for Aluminum 6061-T6, A36 Carbon Steel, 304 Stainless Steel, and Nitronic 60 metals, based on parameters of plastic equivalent strain (failure strain) and stress triaxiality. The research is conducted in two parts. This paper presents Part One of the study. In Part One, custom-designed test specimens undergo controlled uniaxial tension and compression testing at ambient temperature. These tests are performed at quasi-static speeds using Universal Testing Machines (UTMs) in accordance with ASTM E8 and ASTM E9 standards. Experimental data, specifically engineering stress–strain and force–displacement curves, are recorded from the onset of loading until specimen fracture, or in the case of compression tests, until the capacity of the testing machine is reached. In Part Two, the emphasis shifts to the calibration of Finite Element Analysis (FEA) models of the custom-designed test specimens. Plastic equivalent strain and the corresponding stress triaxiality values at failure are extracted from each test specimen for the given metal. These values are then systematically plotted onto a single graph to construct the failure-limit curve, which delineates the boundary conditions for material failure. This approach will facilitate the development of a comprehensive material property definition that correlates plastic equivalent strain with stress triaxiality at failure for Aluminum 6061-T6, A36 Carbon Steel, 304 Stainless Steel, and Nitronic 60 metals.

Harwell, Ron↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of hardened cement degradation and estimation of uncertainty in predicted failure times with peridynamics

Modeling the degradation of cement-based infrastructure due to aqueous environmental conditions continues to be a challenge. In order to develop a capability to predict concrete infrastructure failure due to chemical degradation, here we created a chemomechanical model of the effects of long-term water exposure on cement paste. The model couples the mechanical static equilibrium balance with reactive–diffusive transport and incorporates fracture and failure via peridynamics (a meshless simulation method). The model includes fundamental aspects of degradation of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) paste, including the observed softening, reduced toughness, and shrinkage of the cement paste, and increased reactivity and transport with water induced degradation. This version of the model focuses on the first stage of cement paste decalcification, the dissolution of portlandite. Given unknowns in the cement paste degradation process and the cost of uncertainty quantification (UQ), we adopt a minimally complex model in two dimensions (2D) in order to perform sensitivity analysis and UQ. We calibrate the model to existing experimental data using simulations of common tests such as flexure, compression and diffusion. Then we calculate the global sensitivity and uncertainty of predicted failure times based on variation of eleven unique and fundamental material properties. We observed particularly strong sensitivities to the diffusion coefficient, the reaction rate, and the shrinkage with degradation. Also, the predicted time of first fracture is highly correlated with the time to total failure in compression, which implies fracture can indicate impending degradation induced failure; however, the distributions of the two events overlap so the lead time may be minimal. Extension of the model to include the multiple reactions that describe complete degradation, viscous relaxation, post-peak load mechanisms, and to three dimensions to explore the interactions of complex fracture patterns evoked by more realistic geometry is straightforward and ongoing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Failure analysis of solid oxide fuel cells nickel-yttria stabilized zirconia anode under siloxane contamination

In this study, the failure process of the solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) Ni-yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) anode is investigated with D4 siloxane (octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane) contamination. In order to evaluate the influence of the electrochemical reaction on the siloxane deposition process, the SOFC experiments were operated at open circuit voltage (OCV) and 50 mA cm -2 conditions at 800°C. During the failure process, electrochemical, morphology and exhaust gas component analysis testing are conducted at the critical points. An equivalent circuit model and corresponding microstructure parameter calculations for separated physicochemical processes were utilized for the quantitative analysis of the failure process. Further, the results confirm the siloxane chemical adsorption deposition mechanism proposed in previous work. As a result, the failure of the anode was attributed to the gas diffusion blockage by dense silicon dioxide layer formation. The anode failure process with siloxane contamination is faster when the anode is operated under polarization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A generalized power-law criterion for rocks based on Mohr failure theory

Nonlinearity of Mohr envelopes confirmed by past laboratory test data can be of considerable importance in theoretical interpretation of rock strength behaviors and many practical applications. Current nonlinear failure criteria are introduced with parameters to empirically fit test data, and the physical and mechanical meanings of these fitting parameters are often not known. Predicted strengths by theoretical criteria (e.g., Griffith criterion) generally do not agree well with test data. Considering the nonlinear properties of a Mohr envelope, a nonlinear failure criterion in a generalized power-law form is derived in this paper based on strength magnitude coefficient (a) and failure envelope curvature coefficient (n) which are expressed in terms of uniaxial tensile strength, uniaxial compressive strength, and angle of internal friction. Test data on granite, marble, dolomite, and andesite from published literature were chosen to test the performance of the proposed criterion along with Griffith and Hoek-Brown criteria. Statistical analysis was performed to evaluate the application of different criteria in predicting the strength of rocks. In addition, some Griffith-typed criteria are mathematically shown to be the special cases of the proposed criterion. The proposed and Hoek-Brown criteria have similar power-law forms with a significant difference in the coefficient functions that govern the shear strength magnitude of rock. The different tensile and compressive failure mechanisms are also investigated from the perspective of the relationship between the uniaxial tension Mohr circle and the proposed failure envelope.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fracture mechanics approach to TRISO fuel particle failure analysis

Weibull stress-based methods for failure probability assessment have been developed and analyzed to assess the integrity of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles during fuel life cycles and accident operating conditions. While simple, these methods entail a number of drawbacks when stress concentrates near crack tips, including finite element mesh size dependency when the Weibull stress is averaged over the finite element domain. Fracture mechanics approaches involving the use of interaction integrals eliminate this lack of mesh convergence and produce consistent fracture predictions. In this work, we use an interaction integral approach to computing stress intensity factors for a crack in the inner pyrolytic carbon layer perpendicular to the silicon carbide layer, which is simplified representation of a failure mode in TRISO particles. Further, the interface between these two TRISO layers has been shown to become porous, which we simulate by considering a transition of mechanical properties over such porous length, i.e. the layers are modeled as a functionally graded material. Aspects such as porosity and thermal and irradiation eigenstrains are considered in computing the stress intensity factor from a fracture mechanics approach and compared with the known Weibull stress failure approach. The methodology introduced in this paper enables a more general fracture probability assessment in TRISO particles and eliminates the need to identify best suited parameters when using local or averaged stress-based failure criterion. Finally, the numerical sensitivity studies show how parameters such as the porous transition zone length, the material stiffness, and creep affect the probability of TRISO fuel particle failure.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The effect of current and lambda on white-etch-crack failures

White etching cracks (WECs) have been associated with premature failure of wind turbine roller bearings. Various drivers for the generation of WECs have been identified such as loading conditions, slip, steel quality, lubrication, hydrogen embrittlement, corrosion fatigue cracking, and stray electrical currents passing through the surface. Here, in this work, a benchtop test rig utilizing a three-ring-on-roller test configuration was used to investigate the effect of electrical current and operation in different lubricating regimes, defined by lambda (λ), on high-quality bearing steel samples tested in a commercially available power transmission EP gear lubricant. It was observed that there is an inverse correlation between the magnitude of electric current applied to the ring/ roller system and time-to-failure. Higher current magnitudes lead to shorter time-to-failure than lower current magnitudes, with macropitting as the main failure mode. Sub-surface investigation revealed the presence of WECs in all cases. For the same current magnitude, tests conducted in boundary and mixed lubrication regimes showed that time-to-failure increased as lambda increased, and the tests resulted in WEC related macropits, whereas tests conducted in near-hydrodynamic regime resulted in surface damage with no macropit. It was also noted that a shift toward near-hydrodynamic lubrication resulted in a distinct surface distress on the roller surface. Furthermore, there seems to be a transition in the mixed regime during which the surface distress occurred. The damage on the surface of the test samples resembled non-spatially, periodic, groove-like corrugations and, in some cases, crater-like depressions. Sub-surface imaging, performed by sequential sectioning, revealed the presence of WECs in all cases, and broad, branching cracks that were more prevalent under the more severe boundary conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Size-Dependent Chemomechanical Failure of Sulfide Solid Electrolyte Particles during Electrochemical Reaction with Lithium

The very high ionic conductivity of Li 10 GeP 2 S 12 (LGPS) solid electrolyte (SE) makes it a promising candidate SE for solid-state batteries in electrical vehicles. However, chemomechanical failure, whose mechanism remains unclear, has plagued its widespread applications. Here, we report in situ imaging lithiation-induced failure of LGPS SE. In this work, we revealed a strong size effect in the chemomechanical failure of LGPS particles: namely, when the particle size is greater than 3 μm, fracture/pulverization occurred; when the particle size is between 1 and 3 μm, microcracks emerged; when the particle size is less than 1 μm, no chemomechanical failure was observed. This strong size effect is interpreted by the interplay between elastic energy storage and dissipation. Our finding has important implications for the design of high-performance LGPS SE, for example, by reducing the particle size to less than 1 μm the chemomechanical failure of LGPS SE can be mitigated.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Review on Simulation Models of Cascading Failures in Power Systems

Among various power system disturbances, cascading failures are considered the most serious and extreme threats to grid operations, potentially leading to significant stability issues or even widespread power blackouts. Simulating power systems' behaviors during cascading failures is of great importance to comprehend how failures originate and propagate, as well as to develop effective preventive and mitigative control strategies. The intricate mechanism of cascading failures, characterized by multi-timescale dynamics, presents exceptional challenges for their simulations. This paper provides a comprehensive review of simulation models for cascading failures, providing a systematic categorization and a comparison of these models. The challenges and potential research directions for the future are also discussed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A combined experimental and computational analysis of failure mechanisms in open-hole cross-ply laminates under flexural loading

In this work, integrated experimental tests and computational modeling are proposed to investigate the failure mechanisms of open-hole cross-ply carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) laminated composites. In particular, we propose two effective methods, which include width-tapered double cantilever beam (WTDCB) and fixed-ratio mixed-mode end load split (FRMMELS) tests, to obtain the experimental data more reliably. We then calibrate the traction-separation laws of cohesive zone model (CZM) used among laminas of the composites by leveraging these two methods. The experimental results of fracture energy, i.e. G Ic and G Tc , obtained from WTDCB and FRMMELS tests are generally insensitive to the crack length thus requiring no effort to accurately measure the crack tip. Moreover, FRMMELS sample contains a fixed mixed-mode ratio of G IIc /G Tc depending on the width taper ratio. Examining comparisons between experimental results of FRMMELS tests and failure surface of B–K failure criterion predicted from a curve fitting, good agreement between the predictions and experimental data has been found, indicating that FRMMELS tests are an effective method to determine mixed-mode fracture criterion. In addition, a coupled experimental-computational modeling of WTDCB, edge notched flexure, and FRMMELS tests are adopted to calibrate and validate the interfacial strengths. Finally, failure mechanisms of open-hole cross-ply CFRP laminates under flexural loading have been studied systematically using experimental and multi-scale computational analyses based on the developed CZM model. The initiation and propagation of delamination, the failure of laminated layers as well as load-displacement curves predicted from computational analyses are in good agreement with what we have observed experimentally.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting the proximity to macroscopic failure using local strain populations from dynamic in situ X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on rocks

Predicting the proximity of large-scale dynamic failure is a critical concern in the engineering and geophysical sciences. Here we use evolving contractive, dilatational, and shear strain deformation preceding failure in dynamic X-ray tomography experiments to examine which strain components best predict the proximity to failure. We develop machine learning models to predict the proximity to failure using time series of three-dimensional local incremental strain tensor fields acquired in rock deformation experiments under stress conditions of the upper crust. Three-dimensional scans acquired in situ throughout triaxial compression experiments provide a distribution of density contrasts from which we estimate the three-dimensional incremental strain that accumulates between each scan acquisition. Training machine learning models on multiple experiments of six rock types provides suites of feature importance that indicate the predictive power of each feature. Comparing the average importance of groups of features that include information about each strain component quantifies the ability of the contractive, dilatational and shear strain to predict the proximity of macroscopic failure. A total of 24 models of four machine learning algorithms with six rock types indicate that 1) the dilatational strain provides the best predictive power of the strain components, and 2) the intermediate values (25th-75th percentile) of the strain population provide the best predictive power of the statistics of the strain populations. In addition, the success of the predictions of models trained on one rock type and tested on other rock types quantifies the similarities and differences of the precursory strain accumulation process in the six rock types. These similarities suggest the potential existence of a unified theory of brittle rock deformation for a range of rock types.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Failure analysis of nuclear transient-tested UN tristructural isotropic fuel particles in a 3D printed SiC matrix

Fully ceramic microencapsulated fuel elements containing UN tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles within a 3D printed SiC matrix were subjected to transient testing with varying energy depositions. Detailed post-irradiation examinations were performed, including leaching in hot HNO3 and post-leaching X-ray computed tomography, to quantify the percentage of failed TRISO particles and crack propagation within the particles and surrounding fuel matrix. In parallel, detailed finite element analyses were performed for comparison with experimental findings and to better evaluate transient failure modes. The lowest transient energy deposition—which still exceeded bounding values for high-temperature gas-cooled reactor applications—resulted in no detectable TRISO particle failures or matrix cracking, which was consistent with the simulations. Simulations of the higher-energy transients for which significant TRISO particle failure was expected were generally able to reproduce the transient temperatures and matrix cracking. Thus, the TRISO particle failures were explained based on the effects of local SiC matrix thickness and porosity. Results generally confirmed the high strength of the additively manufactured SiC matrix but also affirmed the need for a modified UN TRISO architecture to prevent SiC matrix cracks from propagating through TRISO layers. This unique failure mode has not historically been considered for TRISO fuels contained in weaker graphite matrices.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Avoiding thermal runaway in lithium-ion batteries using ultrasound detection of early failure mechanisms

Thermal runaway leading to catastrophic failure has slowed the adoption of lithium-ion batteries, highlighting the need for early warning systems. In this work, ultrasound is used to detect physical changes in 0.950 Ah Li-ion battery cells by inducing conditions associated with thermal runaway. Ultrasound signal features are extracted as the batteries are cycled under baseline conditions and subsequently subjected to constant current and voltage overcharges. Two conditions identifying failure are defined: a warning to detect the start of overcharge and an emergency stop (E-stop), to immediately take the battery out of service. Using changes in ultrasound signal features, consistent warning and stopping classifications are applied to all failure experiments. On average, a warning notification was issued after 15% of the overcharge time and an E-stop was triggered after 35% of total overcharge duration before failure. Further testing suggests that it is possible to avoid thermal runaway by reacting to intermediate, warning notifications prior to an immediate E-stop. In other words, not only can detection derived by ultrasound identify battery failure before a catastrophic event, but can also provide early, actionable warnings so that overcharges can be detected and corrected quickly enough so the battery does not need to be decommissioned.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Amorphous complexions alter the tensile failure of nanocrystalline Cu-Zr alloys

Grain boundary-based mechanisms are known to control the plastic deformation and failure of nanocrystalline metals, with manipulation of the boundary structure a promising path for tuning this response. In this study, the role of interfacial structural disorder on plasticity and failure of nanocrystalline Cu-Zr alloys is investigated with in situ scanning electron microscopy tensile deformation experiments. Two model materials are created, one with only the typical ordered grain boundaries and another with amorphous intergranular films interspersed into the boundary network, while the microstructures are otherwise identical. Hence, the importance of complexion type on plasticity and failure is isolated by only varying complexion structure. Here, the tensile experiments show that failure of the samples containing amorphous films is significantly retarded, as evidenced by an increase in the cross-sectional area reduction, a decrease in the occurrence of shear-dominated failure, a decrease in strain localization, and fracture surfaces with more elongated dimple features. As a whole, this study provides direct evidence that structural disorder at the grain boundaries can be beneficial for improving the ductility of nanocrystalline metals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effects of grain size and porosity on cladding failure in high-burnup UO 2 : A sensitivity and uncertainty study

Isotopic taggants are being studied to aid in the provenance assessment of nuclear materials. However, these taggants must be selected such that they do not adversely affect fuel performance during normal operation or accident scenarios. Taggants are known to affect the fuel’s grain size and porosity. In the work described in this paper, the BISON fuel performance code was used to assess the potential effects of taggants (i.e., grain size and porosity) on fuel rod behavior and cladding failure during a high-burnup, large-break loss-of-coolant accident. Here, 281 individual fuel rods from the same reactor core were modeled for a sensitivity study, a parametric study, and uncertainty quantification. The cladding failure predictions often exhibited stochastic behavior. After additional study, it was found that the cladding failure model is highly sensitive to residual error inherent to numerical approximation solvers. Some strategies to mitigate this sensitivity are discussed. The study found no relationship between known taggant effects and cladding failure status. However, taggants were found to affect the time and location of failure in certain rods. In conclusion, future work to continue investigating and validating these findings is briefly discussed.

Doped UO 2↗