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Resolving root causes of experiment discrepancies guided by machine learning

Abstract Scientists rely on accurate experimental data to explain nature and then harness this knowledge for applications addressing human needs. However, discrepancies between experiments of the same observable can impede scientific progress if one does not understand the underlying causes. Here, we developed a process that unravels data discrepancies by first using Bayesian machine learning to relate discrepancies to few of many, potentially biasing metadata features that encode experiment procedures. This machine learning output guides human experts to study discrepancy causes by simulating suspicious aspects of historical experiments or designing modern ones to address open questions. The study findings then lead to rejecting or correcting historical data on firm scientific bases. This process is demonstrated for the energy spectrum of neutrons emitted promptly (<1 ns) after fission of 252 Cf, a trusted nuclear physics Standard. It reduces the spread in experimental 252 Cf spectra by up to a factor of 6.

Neudecker, D. (ORCID:0000000339200627)

Evaluating Crystallinity in Thermoplastic composites

Polymer matrix composites (PMCs) offer many benefits for the aerospace industry due to their potential for weight reduction when compared to metal or ceramic based materials. Most PMCs currently in flight use thermoset matrices, however, thermoplastic resins are being explored as alternatives due to their ability to be remelted, which is of particular interest due to the potential for in-situ repair and manufacturing required in space. Most thermoplastic resins are semicrystalline polymers. The properties of semicrystalline thermoplastics are largely influenced by their crystallinity, which can vary due to many factors including thermal treatments, environmental conditions, and mechanical deformation. Monitoring the crystallinity of thermoplastic composites is key to ensuring these materials reliably meet the high demands required by space exploration. This talk discusses the use of multiple techniques such as Polarized Light Optical Microscopy and Fourier-Transform Infrared Spectroscopy to characterize the crystallinity in various thermoplastic composites, including carbon fiber reinforced PMCs and novel bio-based Martian and Lunar regolith composites designed for in-situ manufacturing. This work aims to provide the fundamental data necessary to understand the effects of crystallinity on thermoplastic PMCs, which is key to advancing their use in space applications.

Thermoplastics

Introduction to the Special Issue on Advanced Air Mobility Noise: Predictions, Measurements and Perception

This Special Issue focuses on noise associated with Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), an emerging class of predominantly electric distributed-propulsion aircraft designed for urban and regional transportation. As these vehicles move toward certification and deployment, noise has become a central challenge for regulatory approval and public acceptance, particularly due to operations in densely populated areas and at low altitudes. The 24 contributions in this issue address three key aspects of AAM noise: prediction, measurement, and human perception. Prediction studies span a wide range of modeling fidelities, from high-resolution simulations to improved semi-analytical approaches, and examine complex aeroacoustic mechanisms including rotor interactions, turbulence ingestion, and broadband noise generation. Measurement studies, largely at model scale, provide new insights into tonal and broadband noise characteristics across configurations and operating conditions, while supporting model validation. Perception-focused contributions investigate annoyance, sound quality metrics, and auralization, emphasizing the role of context and operational factors in shaping human response. Together, these works highlight the interdisciplinary nature of AAM noise research and the need for integrated approaches to enable quieter vehicle design.

Perception

Radiation sensitivity of quartz crystal oscillators experiment for the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF)

Factors determining the radiation sensitivity of quartz crystal oscillators were studied on NASA's LDEF. Quartz materials were examined in the transmission electron microscope (TEM) and classified as to their sensitivity to radiation damage by establishing the rate of damage caused by the electron beam in the microscope. Two types of materials, i.e., swept premium Q quartz and natural quartz were chosen because clear differences were observed in their response to the electron beam in the TEM studies. Quartz resonators were then fabricated from them, tested for frequency stability over a greater than 6 mo. period and flown on the LDEF satellite. After retrieval (more than 7 yrs in space) the stability of the resonators was again determined. All of the space exposed resonators fabricated with swept premium Q material exhibited a frequency shift above that of the control resonators: none of the resonators fabricated from the natural quartz materials exhibited such a shift. The significant differences observed between the two types of materials in both the ground-based TEM studies and the space radiation induced frequency changes suggest that there may be a correlation between the two observations.

J. S. Ahearn

List of Commercial and Advanced Developmental Niobium-Based Alloys of the Space Age

This report compiles a list of commercial and developmental niobium-based alloys developed during the Space Age (late 1950s through mid-1970s) for extreme-temperature applications, including rocket engine thrust chambers, hypersonic re-entry thermal protection systems, and space fission reactor loops. Niobium (Nb) was widely pursued because it provided the lowest density (~8.6 g/cc) among the primary refractory metals, a high melting temperature (~2470°C), exceptional low-temperature ductility, good formability, and compatibility with liquid alkali metals. An evaluation of physical metallurgy mechanisms, focusing on solid-solution strengthening via heavy refractory solutes (W, Mo, Ta), dual-purpose reactive solutes (Hf, Zr, Ti), and dispersion strengthening using carbides, nitrides, and oxides is presented. Additionally, the report compares Western and Soviet Union metallurgical approaches, explaining how supply chain factors and manufacturing infrastructure influenced element selection, interstitial chemistry, and alloy identification/naming conventions. Cataloging these historical alloy chemical compositions serves as a foundational reference for modern alloy additive manufacturing, thermodynamic CALPHAD modeling, and machine-learning discovery pipelines for next-generation extreme-environment niobium-based alloys.

Physical Metallurgy

NASA Systems Autonomy Demonstration Project: Advanced Automation Demonstration of Space Station Freedom Thermal Control System

The NASA Systems Autonomy Demonstration Project (SADP) was initiated in response to Congressional interest in Space station automation technology demonstration. The SADP is a joint cooperative effort between Ames Research Center (ARC) and Johnson Space Center (JSC) to demonstrate advanced automation technology feasibility using the Space Station Freedom Thermal Control System (TCS) test bed. A model-based expert system and its operator interface were developed by knowledge engineers, AI researchers, and human factors researchers at ARC working with the domain experts and system integration engineers at JSC. Its target application is a prototype heat acquisition and transport subsystem of a space station TCS. The demonstration is scheduled to be conducted at JSC in August, 1989. The demonstration will consist of a detailed test of the ability of the Thermal Expert System to conduct real time normal operations (start-up, set point changes, shut-down) and to conduct fault detection, isolation, and recovery (FDIR) on the test article. The FDIR will be conducted by injecting ten component level failures that will manifest themselves as seven different system level faults. Here, the SADP goals, are described as well as the Thermal Control Expert System that has been developed for demonstration.

Jeffrey Dominick

Bosch Carbon Catalyst Regeneration in Water II: Analysis of Bosch Catalyst Beads Throughout the Initial Regeneration Process

Catalyst integrity is an important factor in reactor longevity since it changes the effectiveness of a reaction. A Carbon Formation Reactor (CFR), used within Series Bosch (S-Bosch), utilizes an iron alloy catalyst to convert carbon monoxide and hydrogen into water and solid carbon. The catalyst promotes the formation of carbon to such an extent that pressure-causing clogs form within the reactor and reaction sites on the catalyst become limited. To remove carbon from both the reactor and the surface of the iron alloy catalyst, a technique was developed that utilizes water, an In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) Resource, and agitation to regenerate the reactor. To ascertain catalyst integrity throughout this regenerative process, sample catalyst beads were taken before and after the carbon formation reaction, and then after the regeneration process. Additionally, wastewater from the regeneration process was sampled. The sampled beads and wastewater were observed under a Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) microscope and the beads were chemically etched to determine if the catalyst had degraded at any point during this process, and if catalyst was lost. Minimal catalyst degradation was observed after carbon formation in the CFR.

regeneration

Bosch Carbon Catalyst Regeneration in Water II: Analysis of Bosch Catalyst Beads Throughout the Initial Regeneration Process

Catalyst integrity is an important factor in reactor longevity since it changes the effectiveness of a reaction. A Carbon Formation Reactor (CFR), used within Series Bosch (S-Bosch), utilizes an iron alloy catalyst to convert carbon monoxide and hydrogen into water and solid carbon. The catalyst promotes the formation of carbon to such an extent that pressure-causing clogs form within the reactor and reaction sites on the catalyst become limited. To remove carbon from both the reactor and the surface of the iron alloy catalyst, a technique was developed that utilizes water, an In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) Resource, and agitation to regenerate the reactor. To ascertain catalyst integrity throughout this regenerative process, sample catalyst beads were taken before and after the carbon formation reaction, and then after the regeneration process. Additionally, wastewater from the regeneration process was sampled. The sampled beads and wastewater were observed under a Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) microscope and the beads were chemically etched to determine if the catalyst had degraded at any point during this process, and if catalyst was lost. Minimal catalyst degradation was observed after carbon formation in the CFR.

Series Bosch

The Soviet-American Conference on Cosmochemistry of the Moon and Planets: Part 1

The present volumes contain papers presented at the Soviet-American Conference on the Cosmochemistry of the Moon and Planets held in Moscow from the 4th to the 8th of June, 1974. The basic goal of the conference was consideration of the origin of the planets of the solar system, based on the physical and chemical data obtained by study of the material of the Moon and planets. Papers at the conference were presented in the following sessions: 1. Differentiation of the material of the Moon and planets 2. The thermal history of the Moon 3. Lunar gravitation and magnetism 4. Chronology of the Moon, planets, and meteorites 5. The role of exogenic factors in the formation of the lunar surface 6. Cosmochemical hypotheses about the origin and evolution of the Moon and planets 7. New data about the planets Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Jupiter The results presented in the papers are of exceptional scientific interest since on the one hand they contain new knowledge about the matter of the Moon and planets, while on the other they summarize significant material accumulated during recent years as the result of spacecraft missions to the Moon, Venus, Mars, Mercury, and Jupiter.

Moon

A Transient Hydrodynamic Model of Screen Channel Liquid Acquisition Devices for In-Space Cryogenic Propellant Management

Screen channel liquid acquisition devices (LADs) will play a crucial role in future deep space travel. It is essential that vapor-free delivery of propellants during tank-to-tank transfer is ensured to maximize yield from storage tanks and prevent potential combustion instabilities. The screen channel LAD utilizes a fine screen wire mesh that can separate phases in a low Bond number (i.e. microgravity) environment using surface tension forces. This study presents the development and verification of a new model for transient screen compliance, one of the influential factors for screen channel LAD design. Screen compliance is crucial during LAD channel outflow transients because the slight deflection of the screen can provide needed mass to satisfy rapid outflow demands and reduce the pressure difference across the screen. The model is successfully verified against CFD simulations. In addition, the characteristic speed for the governing screen compliance equations is derived which allows for numerical stability criteria to be established. As shown in this study, the transient maximum pressure difference across the screen can greatly exceed the steady state maximum pressure difference across the screen in many cases.

Hydrodynamics Simulations

What to Do Until the Money Runs Out: A Refinement Framework for Cognitive Engineering in the Real World

A case study is presented to illustrate some of the problems of applying cognitive science to complex human-machine systems. Disregard for facts about human cognition often undermines the safety, reliability, and cost-effectiveness of complex systems. Yet single-point methods (for example, better user-interface design), whether rooted in computer science or in experimental psychology, fall far short of addressing systems-level problems in a timely way using realistic resources. A model-based methodology is proposed for organizing and prioritizing the cognitive engineering effort, focusing appropriate expertise on major problems first, then moving to more sophisticated refinements if time and resources permit. This case study is based on a collaborative effort between the Human Factors Division at NASA-Ames and the Spaceborne Imaging Radar SIR-C/X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) Project at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), California institute of Technology. The first SIR-C/X-SAR Shuttle mission flew successfully in April, 1994. A series of such missions is planned to provide radar data to study Earth's ecosystems, climatic and geological processes, hydrologic cycle, and ocean circulation. In addition to JPL and NASA personnel, the SIR-C/X-SAR operations team included Scientists and engineers from the German and Italian space agencies.

Shafto, Michael G.

Polymer Composite Material Screening for a Cryotank Application

Composite cryotanks will play a key role in enabling the next generation of efficient aircraft. Carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites have the benefits of reduced weight and potentially higher structural strength compared to traditional metallic fuel tanks. A material screening study was conducted to inform material selection for liquid hydrogen (LH2) fuel storage. Three composite materials were considered because of their aerospace grade toughness, strength, and existing data to compare against. These materials were a thermoplastic low-melt polyaryletherketone (LM-PAEK)/carbon fiber (CF), thermoset/CF, and hybrid thermoset/thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) veil/CF composite. Mechanical screening tests included tension, compression, in-plane shear (IPS), and tensile-tensile fatigue (TTF). Each material was tested at both a baseline (no liquid nitrogen/LN2 cycling) and 100 LN2-cycled conditions to determine the knockdown factor, if any, of each material when exposed to environmental loading effects in a cryotank. Results show minimal effects of the LN2-cycling compared against baseline values. The three materials behaved similarly in tension; however, the thermoplastic/CF had the highest IPS toughness. The hybrid thermoset/TPU/CF composite had the lowest IPS strength, compressive strength, and toughness. LN2-cycling had minimal effects on tensile-tensile fatigue performance of the thermoplastic/CF material. Mechanical data was captured to guide material down selection for future commercially viable hydrogen aircraft design.

Composites

Signatures of a spin-active interface and a locally enhanced Zeeman field in a superconductor-chiral material heterostructure

A localized Zeeman field, intensified at heterostructure interfaces, could play a crucial role in a broad area including spintronics and unconventional superconductors. Conventionally, the generation of a local Zeeman field is achieved through magnetic exchange coupling with a magnetic material. However, magnetic elements often introduce defects, which could weaken or destroy superconductivity. Alternatively, the coupling between a superconductor with strong spin-orbit coupling and a nonmagnetic chiral material could serve as a promising approach to generate a spin-active interface. Here, we leverage an interface superconductor, namely, induced superconductivity in noble metal surface states, to probe the spin-active interface. Our results unveil an enhanced interface Zeeman field, which selectively closes the surface superconducting gap while preserving the bulk superconducting pairing. The chiral material, i.e., trigonal tellurium, also induces Andreev bound states (ABS) exhibiting spin polarization. The field dependence of ABS manifests a substantially enhanced interface Landég-factor (g eff ~ 12), thereby corroborating the enhanced interface Zeeman energy.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Tensorized Interior Radiative Heat Transfer for a Scalable and Calibrated Building Energy Simulator

Building energy simulation is a critical tool for developing and testing advanced control strategies, such as Reinforcement Learning (RL), to provide demand flexibility and affordable energy costs. The recently introduced Smart Buildings Control Suite (sbsim) provides a lightweight, scalable, and data-calibrated simulation environment based on a 2D finite-difference model. However, the initial model primarily focused on conductive and convective heat transfer, neglecting the significant impact of long-wave radiative heat exchange between interior surfaces. This paper presents a significant extension to the sbsim framework by incorporating a physically-grounded model for interior radiative heat transfer. Our primary contribution is the development and integration of a fully tensorized radiative heat transfer module, which preserves the computational efficiency and scalability of the original simulator. This was achieved by developing a pipeline for view factor calculation, including an algorithm to identify directly seeing surfaces within complex floor plans, and formulating the net radiation equations for efficient execution on modern hardware accelerators. We validate the numerical accuracy of our tensorized implementation by comparing its results against a traditional iterative approach, demonstrating identical outcomes. This enhancement increases the physical fidelity of sbsim, enabling more accurate training of RL agents for building energy optimization.

Ham, Sang woo

Low-Temperature Gold Deposition Improves CdTe Back Contacts

Improved back contacts can benefit CdTe photovoltaics (PV). In this work, Cd(Se,Te) PV absorbers are cooled during Au evaporation to thermally quench a chemical reaction occurring between gold and CdTe and the generation of a reaction product that lowers device efficiency. Reducing substrate temperature enhances PV power conversion efficiency via open-circuit voltage and fill factor increases. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) reveals that lower temperature also reduces chemical perturbations of the CdTe, potentially linking back contact formation to a CdTe degradation product that hinders PV performance. Comparing reaction enthalpy and substrate heating energy shows that back contact formation by sputtering elemental metals onto ZnTe may exhibit a degradation pathway analogous to that of CdTe/Au reported here. Degradation-diminishing contact formation processes are therefore of general interest for optoelectronic devices, and the reduced substrate temperature in this study is one example.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Getting Warmer: IceCube Nears Freeze Out

IceCube has recently detected a diffuse population of high-energy neutrinos arising from the Milky Way. We use this high-significance detection to place new limits on dark matter (DM) annihilation to neutrinos with two complementary approaches. The first method uses the background-subtracted Galactic longitude distribution of shower events to place a conservative bound on the DM annihilation cross section that does not rely on any assumed Galactic cosmic ray emission model; the resulting limits on the velocity-averaged annihilation cross section improve upon existing bounds by factors of a few. The second method uses the template-dependent neutrino energy spectra from the Inner Galaxy, inferred under different Galactic cosmic ray emission models. This complementary approach shows that the inferred Galactic neutrino intensities are already sensitive to DM contributions near the thermal-relic benchmark for a range of TeV-scale DM masses, though this comparison is more model-dependent. Our results demonstrate that measurements of diffuse Galactic neutrino emission can be used as a powerful probe of DM annihilation into neutrinos. Future observations with IceCube-Gen2 and KM3NeT will substantially extend this sensitivity, potentially allowing a decisive test of the thermal freeze-out mechanism with Galactic neutrino observations.

Mukhopadhyay, Mainak [Fermilab; Chicago U., KICP;

Novel Method for Domestic Stable Isotope Production (CRADA #667) Final Report

This report presents the progress achieved on our chlorine isotope separation efforts in the CRADA #667 agreement. We used a microchannel distillation (MCD) packing structure to enrich HCl isotopes (H35Cl, H37Cl) and an isotachophoresis (ITP) separation to enrich ionic chloride species (35Cl- and 37Cl-). A 2 m tall MCD column was constructed and achieved 264 separation stages over several days, which is well above the goal of 50 stages outlined in the CRADA. The resulting height equivalent to a theoretical plate (HETP) was 0.76 cm. ITP tests were run ~ 24 hours and achieved a single-stage separation factor of 1.559.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES

Oversizing and Part-Load Problems

Oversizing, the common engineering practice of specifying devices with capacity exceeding the actual load requirement, is a widespread practice across virtually all building technologies end-use categories, including HVAC, electrical systems, lighting, appliances, and plug loads. This practice, driven by factors like design uncertainty, institutional pressures, and risk aversion, results in wasted capital investment, control difficulties, and excessive energy consumption due to inefficient part-load operation. Part-load operation, where devices run below maximum capacity, is the dominant operating mode in most energy systems and presents a complex design challenge. Solutions to match output to load fall into three broad categories: constraining the output, adjusting the device’s internal behavior, and linking output to energy storage or other waste-heat reuse applications. The energy implications of part-load are critical, as efficiency often drops sharply as load decreases across a wide diversity of devices. To quantify the extent of this problem, we derive a dimensionless Part-Load Metric (PLM) based on device efficiency and its frequency distribution of operating hours at various output levels. The PLM quantifies the deviation of a device's actual efficiency from its maximum design efficiency. This metric also serves as a measure of "capital inefficiency," enabling engineers to compare the impact of different part-load solutions and providing a unified framework for evaluating performance across various devices and systems.

Meier, Alan