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DOE OSTI2021

Detection of hazardous driving using machine learning

An autonomous driving system could create or exacerbate a hazardous driving situation due to incorrect machine learning, algorithm design, sensor limitations, environmental conditions or other factors. This technology presents solutions that use machine learning to detect when the autonomous driving system is in this state e.g., erratic or reckless driving and other behavior, in order to take remedial action to prevent a hazard such as a collision.

Shirvani, Philip↗

DOE OSTI2017

Development on the National Ignition Facility of a High Energy Density Opacity Platform

X-ray opacity is a crucial factor in all radiation-hydrodynamics calculations, yet it is one of the least validated of the material properties in simulation codes for high-energy-density plasmas. Recent opacity experiments at the Sandia Z-machine have shown up to factors of two discrepancies between theory and experiment for various mid-Z elements (Fe, Cr, Ni). These discrepancies raise doubts regarding the accuracy of the opacity models which are used in ICF and stewardship as well as in astrophysics. Therefore, a new experimental opacity platform has been developed on the National Ignition Facility (NIF), not only to verify the Z-machine experimental results, but also to extend the experiments to other temperatures and densities. Within the context of the national opacity strategy, the first NIF experiments were directed towards measuring the opacity of iron at a temperature of ~160 eV and an electron density of ~7xl021 cm-3(Anchor 1). The Z data agree with theory at these conditions, providing a reference point for validation of the NIF platform. Development shots on NIF have demonstrated the ability to create a sufficiently bright point backlighter using an imploding plastic capsule, and also a combined hohlraum, sample and laser drive able to produce iron plasmas at the desired conditions. Spectrometer qualification has been completed, albeit with additional improvements planned, and the first iron absorption spectra have now been obtained.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Observational benchmarks inform representation of soil organic carbon dynamics in land surface models

Abstract. Representing soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. Machine learning models can help identify dominant environmental controllers and establish their functional relationships with SOC stocks. The resulting knowledge can be integrated into ESMs to reduce uncertainty and improve predictions of SOC dynamics over space and time. In this study, we used a large number of SOC field observations (n=54 000), geospatial datasets of environmental factors (n=46), and two machine learning approaches (namely random forest, RF, and generalized additive modeling, GAM) to (1) identify dominant environmental controllers of global and biome-specific SOC stocks, (2) derive functional relationships between environmental controllers and SOC stocks, and (3) compare the identified environmental controllers and predictive relationships with those in models used in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Our results showed that the diurnal temperature, drought index, cation exchange capacity, and precipitation were important observed environmental predictors of global SOC stocks. While the RF model identified 14 environmental factors that describe climatic, vegetation, and edaphic conditions as important predictors of global SOC stocks (R2=0.61, RMSE = 0.46 kg m−2), current ESMs oversimplify the relationships between environmental factors and SOC, with precipitation, temperature, and net primary productivity explaining > 96 % of the variability in ESM-modeled SOC stocks. Further, our study revealed notable disparities among the functional relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks simulated by ESMs compared with observed relationships. To improve SOC representations in ESMs, it is imperative to incorporate additional environmental controls, such as the cation exchange capacity, and refine the functional relationships to align more closely with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The influence of physical and algorithmic factors on simulated far-field waveforms and source–time functions of underground explosions using unsupervised machine learning

SUMMARY Characterizing explosion sources and differentiating between earthquake and underground explosions using distributed seismic networks becomes non-trivial when explosions are detonated in cavities or heterogeneous ground material. Moreover, there is little understanding of how changes in subsurface physical properties affect the far-field waveforms we record and use to infer information about the source. Simulations of underground explosions and the resultant ground motions can be a powerful tool to systematically explore how different subsurface properties affect far-field waveform features, but there are added variables that arise from how we choose to model the explosions that can confound interpretation. To assess how both subsurface properties and algorithmic choices affect the seismic wavefield and the estimated source functions, we ran a series of 2-D axisymmetric non-linear numerical explosion experiments and wave propagation simulations that explore a wide array of parameters. We then inverted the synthetic far-field waveform data using a linear inversion scheme to estimate source–time functions (STFs) for each simulation case. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), an unsupervised machine learning method, to both the far-field waveforms and STFs to identify the most important factors that control variance in the waveform data and differences between cases. For the far-field waveforms, the largest variance occurs in the shallower radial receiver channels in the 0–50 Hz frequency band. For the STFs, both peak amplitude and rise times across different frequencies contribute to the variance. We find that the ground equation of state (i.e. lithology and rheology) and the explosion emplacement conditions (i.e. tamped versus cavity) have the greatest effect on the variance of the far-field waveforms and STFs, with the ground yield strength and fracture pressure being secondary factors. Differences in the PCA results between the far-field waveforms and STFs could possibly be due to near-field non-linearities of the source that are not accounted for in the estimation of STFs and could be associated with yield strength, fracture pressure, cavity radius and cavity shape parameters. Other algorithmic parameters are found to be less important and cause less variance in both the far-field waveforms and STFs, meaning algorithmic choices in how we model explosions are less important, which is encouraging for the further use of explosion simulations to study how physical Earth properties affect seismic waveform features and estimated STFs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advancements in Development and Testing of Thermal Power Dispatch Simulators

Flexible plant operations and generation (FPOG) offer nuclear power plants (NPPs) the chance to leverage alternative, non-electric revenue streams while ensuring their continued role as reliable, clean, and constant sources of baseload electrical power. The excess thermal energy generated from NPPs during periods of low electricity demand can be channeled as raw materials to numerous industrial processes via a thermal power dispatch (TPD) system. Hydrogen production via high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) is an optimal use case based on technical and economic feasibility. Researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have conducted previous works that developed and implemented TPD system models within the GSE Solutions Generic Pressurized Water Reactor (GPWR) simulator to support human-in-the-loop (HITL) scenario-based evaluations. The first part of this report documents modifications made to the GPWR TPD model and HMI from the previous iteration in line with a new Sargent and Lundy (S&L) TPD design with an automatic control system. The was done in collaboration with Westinghouse using their three-loop pressurizer water reactor (W3LPWR) simulator which contains an industrial grade automatic control system for the TPD. This was installed in the Human Systems Simulation Laboratory (HSSL) at INL. The second part of the report documents findings from an all-hands-on-deck integration and verification workshop that was conducted in the HSSL over several days. The research team comprised INL human factors and TPD experts, a nuclear engineer from GSE Solutions who implemented the revised TPD model for GPWR, the human-machine interface (HMI) prototyping and human factors team from the University of Idaho, and personnel with operations experience with pressurized water reactors. The workshop provided time and expertise to conduct the final activities to bring the operations, HMI, and simulator into a functional state. The goals of the integration and verification workshop were: 1. to install the revised GPWR TPD model into the HSSL 2. verify the TPD HMI prototype was functional 3. integrate the HTSE Simulink model to GPWR. 3. Issues were identified for resolution, but overall the workshop accomplished its goal to integrated and verify the majority of the intended functional. Future work will resolve the identified issues and use the integrated simulation to support an evaluation and demonstration in the next fiscal year.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Continental United States may lose 1.8 petagrams of soil organic carbon under climate change by 2100

Abstract Aims High‐resolution information on soils’ vulnerability to climate‐induced soil organic carbon (SOC) loss can enable environmental scientists, land managers, and policy makers to develop targeted mitigation strategies. This study aims to estimate baseline and decadal changes in continental US surface SOC stocks under future emission scenarios. Location Continental United States. Time period 2014–2100. Methods We used recent SOC field observations ( n = 6,213 sites), environmental factors ( n = 32), and an ensemble machine learning (ML) approach to estimate baseline SOC stocks in surface soils across the continental United States at 100‐m spatial resolution, and decadal changes under the projected climate scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) earth system models (ESMs). Results Baseline SOC projections from ML approaches captured more than 50% of variability in SOC observations, whereas ESMs represented only 6–16% of observed SOC variability. ML estimates showed a mean total loss of 1.8 Pg C from US surface soils under the high‐emission scenario by 2100, whereas ESMs showed no significant change in SOC stocks with wide variation among ESMs. Both ML and ESM predictions agree on the direction of SOC change (net emissions or sequestration) across 46–51% of continental US land area. These differences are attributable to the high‐resolution site‐specific data used in the ML models compared to the relatively coarse grid represented in CMIP6 ESMs. Main conclusions Our high‐resolution estimates of baseline SOC stocks, identification of key environmental controllers, and projection of SOC changes from US land cover types under future climate scenarios suggest the need for high‐resolution simulations of SOC in ESMs to represent the heterogeneity of SOC. We found that the SOC change is sensitive to key soil related factors (e.g. soil drainage and soil order) that have not been historically considered as input parameters in ESMs, because currently more than 95% variability in the SOC of CMIP6 ESMs is controlled by net primary productivity, temperature, and precipitation. Using additional environmental factors to estimate the baseline SOC stocks and predict the future trajectory of SOC change can provide more accurate results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Leveraging Machine Learning and Geo-Tagged Citizen Science Data to Disentangle the Factors of Avian Mortality Events at the Species Level

Abrupt environmental changes can affect the population structures of living species and cause habitat loss and fragmentations in the ecosystem. During August–October 2020, remarkably high mortality events of avian species were reported across the western and central United States, likely resulting from winter storms and wildfires. However, the differences of mortality events among various species responding to the abrupt environmental changes remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on three species, Wilson’s Warbler, Barn Owl, and Common Murre, with the highest mortality events that had been recorded by citizen scientists. We leveraged the citizen science data and multiple remotely sensed earth observations and employed the ensemble random forest models to disentangle the species responses to winter storm and wildfire. We found that the mortality events of Wilson’s Warbler were primarily impacted by early winter storms, with more deaths identified in areas with a higher average daily snow cover. The Barn Owl’s mortalities were more identified in places with severe wildfire-induced air pollution. Both winter storms and wildfire had relatively mild effects on the mortality of Common Murre, which might be more related to anomalously warm water. Our findings highlight the species-specific responses to environmental changes, which can provide significant insights into the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change and avian conservations. Additionally, the study emphasized the efficiency and effectiveness of monitoring large-scale abrupt environmental changes and conservation using remotely sensed and citizen science data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mass Detection for Heavy-Duty Vehicles using Gaussian Belief Propagation

Predicting vehicle mass is critical to accurately estimate energy use and emissions of commercial trucks. However, data from vehicle telematics is often not at sufficient temporal resolution or accuracy for use in model-based detection methods. In this work, a new statistical mass prediction technique is described for heavy-duty vehicles that incorporates the use Gaussian Belief Propagation (GBP) for probabilistic inference. Similar to Bayesian inference models, the GBP model typically requires less labeled training data than other contemporary machine learning techniques. First, a factor graph is constructed, and a set of Gaussian belief nodes with associated means and variances are fitted to the training data. To better handle noisy input data, the GBP mass prediction model utilizes a k-nearest factors (kNF) algorithm for probabilistic inference on unseen testing data. The proposed method is compared with a classical weighted k-nearest neighbors (kNN) regressor. This statistical kNF-GBP model works even with low-quantity, low-quality initial training data, while being capable of realtime mass estimation. Unlike the kNN regressor, the GBP model produces a measure of uncertainty with its predictions. The proposed method is validated using curve-sampled driving data collected from multiple cloud-connected Class 8 regional haul diesel trucks. Both the kNN regressor and the kNF-GBP mass prediction model were able to predict payload mass with coefficients of determination above 0.97 with minimal data preprocessing.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantum Noise Mitigation: Introducing the Robust Quantum Circuit Scheduler for Enhanced Fidelity and Throughput

Undoubtedly, quantum computing offers valuable acceleration for solving intricate problems. One of the primary hurdles lies in executing large-scale quantum applications on backend machines. Qubit noise, among other factors, dramatically influences the execution process. Implementing effective scheduling techniques for quantum circuits is crucial for practical quantum computing and preventing excessive waiting times. The quantum realm is distinct from classical computing in terms of optimization, performance, utilization, and waiting periods. Consequently, the parameters and components of quantum circuit scheduling diverge from those of classical computing. This paper presents Quantum Noise Mitigation: Introducing the Robust Quantum Circuit Scheduler for Enhanced Fidelity and Throughput, a straightforward yet effective scheduling framework and policy that enhances noise resilience, throughput, and the fidelity of quantum circuits. Drawing inspiration from classical methods, our scheduling approach incorporates additional constraints tailored for quantum logic. The outcome demonstrates a substantial improvement in fidelity and resource management, which is vital for real-world quantum applications.

Baheri, Betis↗

DOE OSTI2018

Update on the Iron Opacity Experiments on the NIF

Recent iron opacity experiments on the Sandia National Laboratories Z machine have reported up to factors of two discrepancies between theoretical and experimental results. Much effort has been invested in identifying experimental errors as well as revisiting opacity theories, but a resolution of the discrepancies has not been forthcoming. Here, we emphasize the discrepancies present a fundamental theoretical challenge. To help resolve this question, an experimental platform for opacity experiments is being developed at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). This platform will be able to replicate the experimental conditions of the Z experiments and also extend the measurements to other temperatures and densities. Experiments to date have demonstrated a satisfactory X-ray backlighting source and have achieved the appropriate plasma conditions in the opacity sample. Some initial iron data have been taken, but problems remain with backgrounds and with the spectrometer used to make the measurements.The path forward for correcting these problems is presented.We expect that data for comparing with the Z experiments will be available within a year.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improving and testing machine learning methods for benchmarking soil carbon dynamics representation of land surface models

Representation of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon climate feedbacks. The magnitude of this uncertainty can be reduced by accurate representation of environmental controllers of SOC stocks in ESMs. In this study, we used data of environmental factors, field SOC observations, ESM projections and machine learning approaches to identify dominant environmental controllers of SOC stocks and derive functional relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks. Our derived functional relationships predicted SOC stocks with similar accuracy as the machine learning approach. We used the derived relationships to benchmark the coupled model intercomparison project phase six ESM representation of SOC stocks. We found divergent environmental control representation in ESMs in comparison to field observations. Representation of SOC in ESMs can be improved by including additional environmental factors and representing their functional relationships with SOC consistent with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Source identification by non-negative matrix factorization combined with semi-supervised clustering

Machine-learning methods and apparatus are provided to solve blind source separation problems with an unknown number of sources and having a signal propagation model with features such as wave-like propagation, medium-dependent velocity, attenuation, diffusion, and/or advection, between sources and sensors. In exemplary embodiments, multiple trials of non-negative matrix factorization are performed for a fixed number of sources, with selection criteria applied to determine successful trials. A semi-supervised clustering procedure is applied to trial results, and the clustering results are evaluated for robustness using measures for reconstruction quality and cluster separation. The number of sources is determined by comparing these measures for different trial numbers of sources. Source locations and parameters of the signal propagation model can also be determined. Disclosed methods are applicable to a wide range of spatial problems including chemical dispersal, pressure transients, and electromagnetic signals, and also to non-spatial problems such as cancer mutation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Source identification by non-negative matrix factorization combined with semi-supervised clustering

Alexandrov, Boian S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Data‐Driven Discovery of High‐Performance Silver Selenide‐Based Thermoelectric Composites

Optimizing material compositions often enhances thermoelectric performances. However, the large selection of possible base elements and dopants results in a vast composition design space that is too large to systematically search using solely domain knowledge. To address this challenge, a hybrid data-driven strategy that integrates Bayesian optimization (BO) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) is proposed to optimize the composition of five elements (Ag, Se, S, Cu, and Te) in AgSe-based thermoelectric materials. Data is collected from the literature to provide prior knowledge for the initial GPR model, which is updated by actively collected experimental data during the iteration between BO and experiments. Within seven iterations, the optimized AgSe-based materials prepared using a simple high-throughput ink mixing and blade coating method deliver a high power factor of 2100 µW m −1 K −2 , which is a 75% improvement from the baseline composite (nominal composition of Ag 2 Se 1 ). In conclusion, the success of this study provides opportunities to generalize the demonstrated active machine learning technique to accelerate the development and optimization of a wide range of material systems with reduced experimental trials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly detection in collider physics via factorized observables

To maximize the discovery potential of high-energy colliders, experimental searches should be sensitive to unforeseen new physics scenarios. This goal has motivated the use of machine learning for unsupervised anomaly detection. In this paper, we introduce a new anomaly detection strategy called : factorized observables for regressing conditional expectations. Our approach is based on the inductive bias of factorization, which is the idea that the physics governing different energy scales can be treated as approximately independent. Assuming factorization holds separately for signal and background processes, the appearance of nontrivial correlations between low- and high-energy observables is a robust indicator of new physics. Under the most restrictive form of factorization, a machine-learned model trained to identify such correlations will in fact converge to the optimal new physics classifier. We test on a benchmark anomaly detection task for the Large Hadron Collider involving collimated sprays of particles called jets. By teasing out correlations between the kinematics and substructure of jets, our method can reliably extract percent-level signal fractions. This strategy for uncovering new physics adds to the growing toolbox of anomaly detection methods for collider physics with a complementary set of assumptions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning-based spatiotemporal multi-event reconstruction for delay line detectors

Abstract Accurate observation of two or more particles within a very narrow time window has always been a challenge in modern physics. It creates the possibility of correlation experiments, such as the ground-breaking Hanbury Brown–Twiss experiment, leading to new physical insights. For low-energy electrons, one possibility is to use a Microchannel plate with subsequent delay lines for the readout of the incident particle hits, a setup called a Delay Line Detector. The spatial and temporal coordinates of more than one particle can be fully reconstructed outside a region called the dead radius. For interesting events, where two electrons are close in space and time, the determination of the individual positions of the electrons requires elaborate peak finding algorithms. While classical methods work well with single particle hits, they fail to identify and reconstruct events caused by multiple nearby particles. To address this challenge, we present a new spatiotemporal machine learning model to identify and reconstruct the position and time of such multi-hit particle signals. This model achieves a much better resolution for nearby particle hits compared to the classical approach, removing some of the artifacts and reducing the dead radius a factor of eight. We show that machine learning models can be effective in improving the spatiotemporal performance of delay line detectors.

Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the Impact of Utility Lighting Rebate Programs on Promoting Industrial Energy Efficiency: A Machine Learning Approach

Implementation costs are a major factor in manufacturers’ decisions to invest in energy-efficient technologies. Emerging technologies in lighting systems, however, typically require small investment costs and offer short, simple payback periods, due, in part, to federal, state, and utility incentive programs. Recently, however, certain state and federal mandates have reduced the support for and efficacy of electricity utility incentivizing programs. To determine the impact of such support programs, this study examined historical data regarding lighting retrofit savings, implementation costs, and utility rebates gathered from 13 years of industrial energy audits by a U.S. Department of Energy Industrial Assessment Center in a midwestern state. It uses a machine learning approach to evaluate the industrial energy and cost-saving opportunities that may have been lost due to decisions attributable to legislative mandates, utility policies, and manufacturers’ calculations and to evaluate the potential effect of lighting rebates on manufacturers’ decisions to implement industrial energy-efficient lighting retrofits. The results indicate that the decision not to implement lighting energy efficiency recommendations resulted in a loss of more than USD800,000 in potential rebates by industries during the study period and that the implementation of lighting energy assessment recommendations could have increased by about 50% if electric utility rebates had been available. These findings can help industries evaluate the benefits of implementing lighting efficiency improvements, and help utilities determine feasible lighting retrofit rebate values for incentivizing such changes by the industries they serve.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗