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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5

Measurement of the Neutron Magnetic Form Factor at Large Momentum Transfer Using the Super-Bigbite Apparatus in Jefferson Lab Hall-A

The nucleon elastic electromagnetic form factors help us study the electromagnetic structure of the nucleon, benchmark theoretical models, and improve our understanding of non-perturbative quantum chromodynamics and confinement. The Nobel Prize-winning electron-nucleon scattering experiments by Robert Hofstadter and collaborators in the 1950s at Stanford High Energy Physics Lab were the first nucleon form factor measurements performed using leptonic probes. The Super Bigbite Spectrometer (SBS) program at Hall-A of Jefferson Lab represents the latest efforts to measure nucleon form factors. This ambitious program aims to significantly extend the current data set in terms of square momentum transfer (Q2) with high precision. The advent of novel detector technologies, like Gas Electron Multipliers (GEM), which provide excellent position resolution (< 100 ?m) while withstanding high background particle rates (several hundred MHz/cm2) over a large active area, has paved the way for open-geometry, moderate solid angle spectrometers, which are central to all form factor experiments in the SBS program. The first experimental run group in SBS ran successfully between September 2021 and February 2022, collecting data for the measurement of the magnetic form factor of the neutron Gn M at five squared momentum-transfer values: 3.0, 4.5, 7.5, 9.8, and 13.5 (GeV /c)2. This extends the existing high-precision data for Gn M by about a factor of four. The ratio technique was used, which involved the simultaneous measurement of exclusive quasielastic scattering of D(e,e?n)p and D(e,e?p)n from a deuterium target. Pre-preliminary results for D(e,e?n)p and D(e,e?p)n quasi-elastic ratio, and the neutron magnetic form factor Gn M , for Q2 points 3.0, 9.8, and 13.5 (GeV /c)2 are presented.

Mudiyanselage, Anuruddha Rathnayake↗

Tucker-1 Boolean Tensor Factorization with Quantum Annealers

Quantum annealers are an emerging computational architecture that have the potential to address some challenging computational issues that will be left unresolved as we approach the end of the Moore's Law era of computing. D-Wave quantum annealers are designed to solve a challenging set of problems - quadratic unconstrained binary optimization problems. This makes them a natural fit for solving problems with binary or Boolean variables. Here, we explore the use of a quantum annealer to solve Boolean tensor factorization. The goal of Boolean tensor factorization is to represent a high-dimensional tensor filled with Boolean values as a product of Boolean matrices and a Boolean core tensor. We show that a particular Boolean tensor factorization problem (called Tucker-1 factorization) can be decomposed into a sequence of quadratic unconstrained binary optimization problems that can be solved with a D-Wave 2000Q quantum annealer. While quantum annealers specifically and quantum computers in general are at a fairly early stage in their development, they are currently capable of solving these Boolean tensor factorization problems. Importantly, our results show that for fairly small tensors, we are frequently able to obtain an accurate (sometimes exact) factorization using quantum annealing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Characterizing peak electricity demand for U.S. households: an assessment of end-use loads and demand factors

Understanding household peak electricity demand is critical to evaluate the technical need for electrical infrastructure upgrades. This study characterizes peak loads for existing and new equipment using metered data from a convenience sample of 11,940 U.S. dwellings from four sources, including 911 from two sources with end-use metering. After standardized data cleaning and labeling, we derived descriptive statistics for key metrics, such as maximum demand and demand factors, and developed predictive models relating 60- to 15-min demand for the National Electrical Code (NEC). Mean 15-min maximum demand was 9.7 kW (median 9.0 kW; IQR 7.0–11.5 kW, 95% CI 9.6–9.8 kW), indicating spare capacity in 98% of homes with hypothetical 100 A panels. Maximum demand increased with floor area and number of high-demand loads. Dwelling maximum demand was driven by higher-power, longer-duration heating appliances and vehicle charging, while most user-operated appliances contributed little. Demand factors are used to account for how most devices contribute less than their rated power to maximum demand. Existing load mean demand factors (28%; median 10%; IQR 0–58%; CI 28–29%) were higher than those for new loads (21%; median 7%; IQR 0–35%; CI 20–21%), because new loads changed the timing and magnitude of maximum demand. New high-demand loads had higher than average demand factors (40–60%). Whole dwelling demand factors support the NEC's 40% assumption, but they challenge its conservative 100% treatment of new HVAC. We propose a data-driven 50% demand factor for new equipment, which would align with metered data, improve affordability, and modernize electrical codes.

Appliances↗

Efficient lattice QCD computation of radiative-leptonic-decay form factors at multiple positive and negative photon virtualities

In previous work [D. Giusti, Methods for high-precision determinations of radiative-leptonic decay form factors using lattice QCD, Phys. Rev. D 107, 074507 (2023)], we showed that form factors for radiative leptonic decays of pseudoscalar mesons can be determined efficiently and with high precision from lattice QCD using the “three-dimensional (3D) method,” in which three-point functions are computed for all values of the current insertion time and the time integral is performed at the data-analysis stage. Here, we demonstrate another benefit of the 3D method: the form factors can be extracted for any number of nonzero photon virtualities from the same three-point functions at no extra cost. We present results for the $D_s → ℓνγ*$ vector form factor as a function of photon energy and photon virtuality, for both positive and negative virtuality, for a single ensemble with 340 MeV pion mass and 0.11 fm lattice spacing. In our analysis, we separately consider the two different time orderings and the different quark flavors in the electromagnetic current. We discuss in detail the behavior of the unwanted exponentials contributing to the three-point functions, as well as the choice of fit models and fit ranges used to remove them for various values of the virtuality. While positive photon virtuality is relevant for decays to multiple charged leptons, negative photon virtuality suppresses soft contributions and is of interest in QCD-factorization studies of the form factors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Off-shell pion properties: Electromagnetic form factors and light-front wave functions

The off-shell pion electromagnetic form factors are explored with corresponding off-shell light-front wave functions modeled by constituent quark and antiquark. We apply the Mandelstam approach for the microscopic computation of the form factors relating the model parameters with the pion decay constant and charge radius. Analyzing the existing data on the cross sections for the Sullivan process, 1 H(e,e',π + )⁢n, Charged pion form factor between Q 2 = 0.60, and 2.45 GeV 2 . I. Measurements of the cross section for the 1 H⁡(e,e'⁢π + )⁢n reaction, we extract the off-shell pion form factor using the relation derived from the generalized Ward-Takahashi identity for the pion electromagnetic current. They are compared with our previous results from exactly solvable manifestly covariant model of a (3+1)-dimensional fermion field theory. We find that the adopted constituent quark model reproduces the extracted off-shell form factor F 1 ⁡(Q 2 ,t) from the experimental data within a few percent difference and matches well with our previous theoretical simulation which exhibits a variation of about 10% for the extracted off-shell pion form factor g(Q 2 ,t). We also identify the pion valence parton distribution function (PDF) and transverse momentum distribution (TMD) in terms of the light-front wave function and discuss their off-shell properties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Lorentz factor for time-of-flight neutron Bragg and total scattering

We report the three fundamental origins of the Lorentz factor for neutron time-of-flight powder diffraction are revisited. A detailed derivation of the Lorentz factor is presented in the context of diffuse scattering modelling in reciprocal space when perfect periodicity is assumed, and the total scattering pattern is constructed in its discrete form – the factor in this case becomes 1/Q 2 (or d 2 ). Discussion is also presented with respect to practical data reduction where a vanadium measurement is usually taken as the normalization factor (to account for various factors such as detector efficiency), and it is shown that the existence of the Lorentz factor is independent of such a normalization process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Collagen Turnover in Relation to Risk Factors and Hemodynamics in Human Intracranial Aneurysms

Determinants for molecular and structural instability, that is, impending growth or rupture, of intracranial aneurysms (IAs) remain uncertain. To elucidate this, we endeavored to estimate the actual turnover rates of the main molecular constituent in human IA (collagen) on the basis of radiocarbon ( 14 C) birth dating in relation to IA hemodynamics. Collagen turnover rates in excised human IA samples were calculated using mathematical modeling of 14 C birth dating data of collagen in relation to risk factors and histological markers for collagen maturity/turnover in selected IA. Hemodynamics were simulated using image-based computational fluid dynamics. Correlation, logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed. Collagen turnover rates were estimated in 46 IA (43 patients); computational fluid dynamics could be performed in 20 IA (20 patients). The mean collagen turnover rate (γ) constituted 126% (±1% error) per year. For patients with arterial hypertension, γ was greater than 2600% annually, whereas γ was distinctly lower with 32% (±1% error) per year for patients without risk factors, such as smoking and hypertension. There was a distinct association between histological presence of rather immature collagen in human IA and the presence of modifiable risk factors. Spatial-temporal averaged wall shear stress predicted rapid collagen turnover (odds ratio, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.0–2.7]). Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated a good test accuracy (area under the curve, 0.798 [95% CI, 0.598–0.998]) for average wall shear stress with a threshold ≥4.9 Pa for rapid collagen turnover. Our data indicate that turnover rates and stability of collagen in human IA are strongly associated with the presence of modifiable risk factors and aneurysmal hemodynamics. Finally, these findings underline the importance of strict risk factor modification in patients with unruptured IA. Future should include more detailed risk factor data to establish a more causal understanding of hemodynamics and the rupture risk of individual IA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Transfer Factors for the FRMAC Assessment Manual and Turbo FRMAC to Improve Radiological Dose Assessment

The Turbo FRMAC analysis tool is used to perform complex calculations to quickly evaluate radiological consequences and aid in decision making during an emergency response by assessing impacts to the public, workers, and the food supply. Turbo FRMAC calculations are based on methods established by the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center (FRMAC). To be able to assess impacts, input data called transfer factors that describe radionuclide uptake by local plants and animals are required. During the code application exercises in late 2016, identifying, finding, and validating nonstandard transfer factors proved to be time consuming and diverted the teams’ activity away from other critical tasks. As a result, a task was undertaken to dramatically expand the list of available transfer factors (food and non-food) and incorporate these factors into Turbo FRMAC. This will ultimately result in improved efficiency of the assessment team to perform calculations during times when the FRMAC is activated and provide more defensible, vetted data from which to calculate results. As a result of these and subsequent exercises, transfer factors were needed for the following items: bell peppers, Christmas tree, deer, flowers, fresh cucumbers, tomatoes, grapefruit, lichens, mushrooms, oranges, snap beans, squash, strawberries, sugarcane for sugar and seed, sweet corn, tea, tobacco, tree bark, and watermelon. To expand the applicability of the information tables, generic transfer data were also provided for common categories and recommendations were made for expanding the list of chemicals based on chemical similarity. The data presented in this report were compiled from recent literature with most of the data encompassing the period from 2000 to 2018. The following radionuclides were targeted during the literature search: elements associated with reactor accidents or nuclear detonations (Sr 89/90, Cs 134/137, Ce 141/144, Ru 103/106, I 129/131/133, Pu 238/239, Am 241, Zr 95, and Nb 95) and elements associated with industrial accidents or dirty bombs (Ir 192 and Co 60). Data from other elements were evaluated if they were identified during the literature search. In addition, reports were evaluated that were recommended by the research consultants. For each plant or animal transfer factor, the goal was to determine the geometric mean, the geometric standard deviation, the minimum, the maximum, and the number of measurements used. If only one measurement was available that was presented as the mean. Concentration ratios with large geometric standard deviations (GSDs) were generally the result of a paucity of measurements or a few disparate measurements. Measurement disparity was observed for data from different soil types. The geometric mean (GM) is a good reference value for planning and responses purposes, but the location-specific concentrations are unlikely to be similar to the model results. Recommendations for further work include: segregating the data to reflect the influence of soil type, developing approaches to incorporate animal data based on aggregated transfer measurements, and including data for foliar deposition on plants.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Characterization of promoter elements of isoprene‐responsive genes and the ability of isoprene to bind START domain transcription factors

Abstract Isoprene has recently been proposed to be a signaling molecule that can enhance tolerance of both biotic and abiotic stress. Not all plants make isoprene, but all plants tested to date respond to isoprene. We hypothesized that isoprene interacts with existing signaling pathways rather than requiring novel mechanisms for its effect on plants. We analyzed the cis‐regulatory elements (CREs) in promoters of isoprene‐responsive genes and the corresponding transcription factors binding these promoter elements to obtain clues about the transcription factors and other proteins involved in isoprene signaling. Promoter regions of isoprene‐responsive genes were characterized using the Arabidopsis cis‐regulatory element database. CREs bind ARR1, Dof, DPBF, bHLH112, GATA factors, GT‐1, MYB, and WRKY transcription factors, and light‐responsive elements were overrepresented in promoters of isoprene‐responsive genes; CBF‐, HSF‐, WUS‐binding motifs were underrepresented. Transcription factors corresponding to CREs overrepresented in promoters of isoprene‐responsive genes were mainly those important for stress responses: drought‐, salt/osmotic‐, oxidative‐, herbivory/wounding and pathogen‐stress. More than half of the isoprene‐responsive genes contained at least one binding site for TFs of the class IV (homeodomain leucine zipper) HD‐ZIP family, such as GL2, ATML1, PDF2, HDG11, ATHB17. While the HD‐zipper‐loop‐zipper (ZLZ) domain binds to the L1 box of the promoter region, a special domain called the steroidogenic acute regulatory protein‐related lipid transfer, or START domain, can bind ligands such as fatty acids (e.g., linolenic and linoleic acid). We tested whether isoprene might bind in such a START domain. Molecular simulations and modeling to test interactions between isoprene and a class IV HD‐ZIP family START‐domain‐containing protein were carried out. Without membrane penetration by the HDG11 START domain, isoprene within the lipid bilayer was inaccessible to this domain, preventing protein interactions with membrane bound isoprene. The cross‐talk between isoprene‐mediated signaling and other growth regulator and stress signaling pathways, in terms of common CREs and transcription factors could enhance the stability of the isoprene emission trait when it evolves in a plant but so far it has not been possible to say what how isoprene is sensed to initiate signaling responses.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Customer enrollment and participation in building demand management programs: A review of key factors

Increasing the efficiency and flexibility of electricity demand is necessary for ensuring a cost-effective and reliable transition to zero-carbon electricity systems. Such demand-side management (DSM) resources have been procured by utilities for decades via energy efficiency and demand response programs; however, the key drivers of program enrollment and customer participation levels remain poorly understood — even as governments and grid planners seek to scale up the deployment of DSM assets to meet climate targets. Here we systematically review the evidence on multiple factors that may influence customer enrollment and participation in building DSM programs, focusing primarily on residential and commercial buildings. We examine the contexts in which relationships between DSM factors and outcomes are most often explored and with which methods; we also score the strength, direction, and internal consistency of each factor's reported impact on the enrollment and participation outcomes. We find that studies most commonly assess the effects of economic incentives for load flexibility on program participation levels, often using simulation-based methods in lieu of measured data. Few studies focus on program enrollment outcomes or regulatory drivers of either enrollment or participation, and gaps are also evident in the coverage of emerging DSM opportunities like load electrification. Removal of structural barriers (e.g., the lack of controls infrastructure) and the use of third party services (e.g., load aggregators) are the factors with the largest positive impacts on DSM outcomes, but no single factor emerges as clearly most impactful. For a given factor, the range of reported impacts typically varies widely across the relevant studies reviewed. Our findings provide a snapshot of the state of knowledge about building DSM and customer decision-making, and they expose key gaps in understanding that must be filled if building DSM is to expand as a critical resource for operating clean power grids.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Predicting transcription factor activity using prior biological information

Dysregulation of normal transcription factor activity is a common driver of disease. Therefore, the detection of aberrant transcription factor activity is important to understand disease pathogenesis. We have developed Priori, a method to predict transcription factor activity from RNA sequencing data. Priori has two key advantages over existing methods. First, Priori utilizes literature-supported regulatory information to identify transcription factor-target gene relationships. It then applies linear models to determine the impact of transcription factor regulation on the expression of its target genes. Second, results from a third-party benchmarking pipeline reveals that Priori detects aberrant activity from 124 single-gene perturbation experiments with higher sensitivity and specificity than 11 other methods. We applied Priori and other top-performing methods to predict transcription factor activity from two large primary patient datasets. Our work demonstrates that Priori uniquely discovered significant determinants of survival in breast cancer and identified mediators of drug response in leukemia.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Source of Processable Vitrimer Viscosities: Swap Frequencies and Steric Factors

Vitrimers exhibit high, processable viscosities, where other polymers do not, and are among the most promising polymers for closed-loop material circularity. We sought to investigate the underlying chemical kinetic factors that result in high viscosities for vitrimers, which are crucial to designing vitrimers with tunable viscosity. To interrogate these factors, we achieved the first simulated predictions of real vitrimer viscosities, using a novel kinetic Monte Carlo molecular dynamics method, overcoming the time and length scale gaps to predict experimental bulk viscosities. The vitrimer architecture investigated is based on poly(dimethylsiloxane) chains and vinylogous urethane bond swaps. We probed the effects of the extent of free swapping groups, %F, the activation energy, E A , and the steric factor, ρ. The steric factor is related to the intrinsic reaction probability for molecules with sufficient energy. All three factors were found to be significant, but the role of ρ was found to be the biggest and also the most underappreciated. The results show that the inclusion of accurate ρ is of critical importance for viscosity predictions, with the evidence suggesting that the typical assumption of ρ = 1 is not valid for vitrimers and that, indeed, very low steric factors are present in bond-swap vitrimers such that values of ρ < 10 –10 may be typical. This greatly influences the bond exchange rates and, ultimately, the viscosities. Recognition of this result is necessary for the prediction of vitrimer viscosities from molecular simulations and to make vitrimers by design from molecular dynamics. We also investigated the effects that E A , ρ, and the number of free swapping groups have upon vitreous range temperatures, TV, with respect to achieving a specific viscosity (η V = 1 × 10 8 Pa·s), as well as for a commonly reported higher viscosity extrapolation (η V = 1 × 10 12 Pa·s). The evidence suggests that vitrimers may follow universal curves for E A vs T V , as a function of ρ. Finally, this study achieves the first of these comparisons of molecular simulations to experiments and reveals critical insights toward creating vitrimers by design, while providing a route for the prediction of T V from kinetic Monte Carlo molecular dynamics simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Local self-interaction correction method with a simple scaling factor

A recently proposed local self-interaction correction (LSIC) method [Zope et al., J. Chem. Phys., 2019, 151, 214108] when applied to the simplest local density approximation provides a significant improvement over standard Perdew–Zunger SIC (PZSIC) for both equilibrium properties such as total or atomization energies as well as properties involving stretched bond such as barrier heights. The method uses an iso-orbital indicator to identify the single-electron regions. To demonstrate the LSIC method, Zope et al. used the ratio z σ of von Weizsäcker τ W σ and total kinetic energy densities τ σ , (z σ = τ W σ /τ σ ) as a scaling factor to scale the self-interaction correction. The present work further explores the LSIC method using a ratio of orbital and spin densities as a simpler scaling factor in place of the ratio of kinetic energy densities. We compute a wide array of both, equilibrium and non-equilibrium properties using LSIC and orbital scaling methods using this simple scaling factor and compare them with previously reported results. Our study shows that LSIC with the simple scaling factor performs better than PZSIC, with results comparable to those obtained by LSIC( z σ ) for most properties, but has slightly larger errors than LSIC( z σ ). Furthermore, we study the binding energies of small water clusters using both scaling factors. Our results show that LSIC with zσ has limitations in predicting the cluster binding energies of weakly bonded systems due to the inability of z σ to distinguish weakly bonded regions from slowly varying density regions. LSIC when used with the density ratio as a scaling factor, on the other hand, provides a good description of water cluster binding energies, thus highlighting the appropriate choice of the iso-orbital indicator.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Programmable gene regulation for metabolic engineering using decoy transcription factor binding sites

Abstract Transcription factor decoy binding sites are short DNA sequences that can titrate a transcription factor away from its natural binding site, therefore regulating gene expression. In this study, we harness synthetic transcription factor decoy systems to regulate gene expression for metabolic pathways in Escherichia coli. We show that transcription factor decoys can effectively regulate expression of native and heterologous genes. Tunability of the decoy can be engineered via changes in copy number or modifications to the DNA decoy site sequence. Using arginine biosynthesis as a showcase, we observed a 16-fold increase in arginine production when we introduced the decoy system to steer metabolic flux towards increased arginine biosynthesis, with negligible growth differences compared to the wild type strain. The decoy-based production strain retains high genetic integrity; in contrast to a gene knock-out approach where mutations were common, we detected no mutations in the production system using the decoy-based strain. We further show that transcription factor decoys are amenable to multiplexed library screening by demonstrating enhanced tolerance to pinene with a combinatorial decoy library. Our study shows that transcription factor decoy binding sites are a powerful and compact tool for metabolic engineering.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement of the sodium and iodine scintillation quenching factors across multiple NaI(Tl) detectors to identify systematics

The amount of light produced by nuclear recoils in scintillating targets is strongly quenched compared to that produced by electrons. A precise understanding of the quenching factor is particularly interesting for weakly interacting massive particles (WIMP) searches and coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering ( CE ν NS ) measurements since both rely on nuclear recoils, whereas energy calibrations are more readily accessible from electron recoils. There is a wide variation among the current measurements of the quenching factor in sodium iodide (NaI) crystals, especially below 10 keV, the energy region of interest for dark matter and CE ν NS studies. A better understanding of the quenching factor in NaI(Tl) is of particular interest for resolving the decades-old puzzle in the field of dark matter between the null results of most WIMP searches and the claim for dark matter detection by the DAMA/LIBRA collaboration. In this work, we measured sodium and iodine quenching factors for five small NaI(Tl) crystals grown with similar thallium concentrations and growth procedures. Unlike previous experiments, multiple crystals were tested, with measurements made in the same experimental setup to control systematic effects. The quenching factors agree in all crystals we investigated, and both sodium and iodine quenching factors are smaller than those reported by DAMA/LIBRA. The dominant systematic effect was due to the electron equivalent energy calibration originating from the nonproportional behavior of the NaI(Tl) light yield at lower energies, potentially the cause for the discrepancies among the previous measurements. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Individual tree damage dominates mortality risk factors across six tropical forests

Summary The relative importance of tree mortality risk factors remains unknown, especially in diverse tropical forests where species may vary widely in their responses to particular conditions. We present a new framework for quantifying the importance of mortality risk factors and apply it to compare 19 risks on 31 203 trees (1977 species) in 14 one‐year periods in six tropical forests. We defined a condition as a risk factor for a species if it was associated with at least a doubling of mortality rate in univariate analyses. For each risk, we estimated prevalence (frequency), lethality (difference in mortality between trees with and without the risk) and impact (‘excess mortality’ associated with the risk, relative to stand‐level mortality). The most impactful risk factors were light limitation and crown/trunk loss; the most prevalent were light limitation and small size; the most lethal were leaf damage and wounds. Modes of death (standing, broken and uprooted) had limited links with previous conditions and mortality risk factors. We provide the first ranking of importance of tree‐level mortality risk factors in tropical forests. Future research should focus on the links between these risks, their climatic drivers and the physiological processes to enable mechanistic predictions of future tree mortality.

Zuleta, Daniel↗

Combining Sparse Approximate Factorizations with Mixed-precision Iterative Refinement

The standard LU factorization-based solution process for linear systems can be enhanced in speed or accuracy by employing mixed-precision iterative refinement. Most recent work has focused on dense systems. We investigate the potential of mixed-precision iterative refinement to enhance methods for sparse systems based on approximate sparse factorizations. In doing so, we first develop a new error analysis for LU- and GMRES-based iterative refinement under a general model of LU factorization that accounts for the approximation methods typically used by modern sparse solvers, such as low-rank approximations or relaxed pivoting strategies. We then provide a detailed performance analysis of both the execution time and memory consumption of different algorithms, based on a selected set of iterative refinement variants and approximate sparse factorizations. Our performance study uses the multifrontal solver MUMPS, which can exploit block low-rank factorization and static pivoting. We evaluate the performance of the algorithms on large, sparse problems coming from a variety of real-life and industrial applications showing that mixed-precision iterative refinement combined with approximate sparse factorization can lead to considerable reductions of both the time and memory consumption.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Prediction Model of Risk Factors for COVID-19 Developing into Severe Illness Based on 1046 Patients with COVID-19

This study analyzed the risk factors for patients with COVID-19 developing severe illnesses and explored the value of applying the logistic model combined with ROC curve analysis to predict the risk of severe illnesses at COVID-19 patients’ admissions. The clinical data of 1046 COVID-19 patients admitted to a designated hospital in a certain city from July to September 2020 were retrospectively analyzed, the clinical characteristics of the patients were collected, and a multivariate unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors for severe illnesses in COVID-19 patients during hospitalization. Based on the analysis results, a prediction model for severe conditions and the ROC curve were constructed, and the predictive value of the model was assessed. Logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR = 3.257, 95% CI 10.466–18.584), complications with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR = 7.337, 95% CI 0.227–87.021), cough (OR = 5517, 95% CI 0.258–65.024), and venous thrombosis (OR = 7322, 95% CI 0.278–95.020) were risk factors for COVID-19 patients developing severe conditions during hospitalization. When complications were not taken into consideration, COVID-19 patients’ ages, number of diseases, and underlying diseases were risk factors influencing the development of severe illnesses. The ROC curve analysis results showed that the AUC that predicted the severity of COVID-19 patients at admission was 0.943, the optimal threshold was −3.24, and the specificity was 0.824, while the sensitivity was 0.827. The changes in the condition of severe COVID-19 patients are related to many factors such as age, clinical symptoms, and underlying diseases. This study has a certain value in predicting COVID-19 patients that develop from mild to severe conditions, and this prediction model is a useful tool in the quick prediction of the changes in patients’ conditions and providing early intervention for those with risk factors.

Lian, Zhichuang↗