Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Fast Region Evaluation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Expansion of the Fuel Motion Monitoring System

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) Fuel Motion Monitoring System (FMMS) is a diagnostic tool used to visualize the movement and location of fuel within the nuclear reactor during transient experiments. TREAT is designed to test the behavior of nuclear fuel under accident conditions, such as a rapid power increase. The TREAT FMMS, also referred to as the “hodoscope” because of the system’s massive steel collimator component, is located on the North beam port of the reactor. While the FMMS system is capable of incorporating a total of 360 sensors, initial refurbishment efforts resulted in a array of 96 fast neutron detectors. This initial array was configured to provide a narrow (2 channels) full-length view of experiment vessels with an extended 4-channel–wide region in the center of the array capable of providing a full view of all initially planned experiments. Planning and efforts to expand the FMMS array began immediately following the restart of TREAT. An additional 96 detectors were evaluated, characterized, and prepared for installation at TREAT during the summer of 2018. Unfortunately, funding reductions forced the project towards a 5-year hiatus. In October of 2023 funding from the Department of Energy’s Nuclear Science User Facilities enabled the expansion to recommence. This report serves to document the activities performed to expand the FMMS detector array to 192 channels in order to provide a broader view of the larger and more sophisticated test capsules currently planned for future irradiation in the TREAT reactor. This expansion also included doubling the data acquisition capability, addressing the new heat load on the system, and synchronizing the time for all digital components.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Soft X-ray spectral fits of Geminga with model neutron star atmospheres

The spectrum of the soft X-ray pulsar Geminga consists of two components, a softer one which can be interpreted as thermal-like radiation from the surface of the neutron star, and a harder one interpreted as radiation from a polar cap heated by relativistic particles. We have fitted the soft spectrum using a detailed magnetized hydrogen atmosphere model. The fitting parameters are the hydrogen column density, the effective temperature T(sub eff), the gravitational redshift z, and the distance to radius ratio, for different values of the magnetic field B. The best fits for this model are obtained when B less than or approximately 1 x 10(exp 12) G and z lies on the upper boundary of the explored range (z = 0.45). The values of T(sub eff) approximately = (2-3) x 10(exp 5) K are a factor of 2-3 times lower than the value of T(sub eff) obtained for blackbody fits with the same z. The lower T(sub eff) increases the compatibility with some proposed schemes for fast neutrino cooling of neutron stars (NSs) by the direct Urca process or by exotic matter, but conventional cooling cannot be excluded. The hydrogen atmosphere fits also imply a smaller distance to Geminga than that inferred from a blackbody fit. An accurate evaluation of the distance would require a better knowledge of the ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC) response to the low-energy region of the incident spectrum. Our modeling of the soft component with a cooler magnetized atmosphere also implies that the hard-component fit requires a characteristic temperature which is higher (by a factor of approximately 2-3) and a surface area which is smaller (by a factor of 10(exp 3), compared to previous blackbody fits.

Meyer, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Effects of Wave Escape on Fast Magnetosonic Wave Turbulence in Solar Flares

One of the leading models for electron acceleration in solar flares is stochastic acceleration by weakly turbulent fast magnetosonic waves ("fast waves"). In this model, large-scale flows triggered by magnetic reconnection excite large-wavelength fast waves, and fast-wave energy then cascades from large wavelengths to small wavelengths. Electron acceleration by large-wavelength fast-waves is weak, and so the model relies on the small-wavelength waves produced by the turbulent cascade. In order for the model to work, the energy cascade time for large-wavelength fast waves must be shorter than the time required for the waves to propagate out of the solar-flare acceleration region. To investigate the effects of wave escape, we solve the wave kinetic equation for fast waves in weak turbulence theory, supplemented with a homogeneous wave-loss term.We find that the amplitude of large-wavelength fast waves must exceed a minimum threshold in order for a significant fraction of the wave energy to cascade to small wavelengths before the waves leave the acceleration region.We evaluate this threshold as a function of the dominant wavelength of the fast waves that are initially excited by reconnection outflows.

Pongkitiwanichakul, Peera↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-energy ion irradiation effects and distinctive features of color center generation in yttria-stabilized zirconia driven by structural discrepancy

Regarding a requirement for inert matrix fuel (IMF) to burn minor actinides and plutonium and high-level waste immobilization, Yttria-stabilized zirconia (ZrO 2 -6.5 wt% Y 2 O 3 ) (YSZ) crystals with cubic phase are selected to comprehensively evaluate the irradiation resistance by irradiation-induced structural discrepancies across multiple energy conditions. Electronic excitation and nuclear collisions reveal distinct color centers, influenced by varying component ratios that reflect their formation mechanisms. Key factors driving ultra-fast structural transitions include collision cascades, pressure waves, and energy dissipation from electronic excitation. In this work, we find that in the electronic energy loss (E ele )-dominant region, internal latent tracks with unique surface nanostructures emerge, distinct from the defect clusters seen in the nuclear energy loss (E nuc )-dominant region, while the threshold for latent track formation and melting are identified. In conclusion, structural discrepancies driven by different energy-loss mechanisms promote the generation of singly ionized and nearest-neighbor doubly ionized oxygen vacancies, which respectively dominate the formation of F⁺ and T-centers, resulting in bandgap narrowing (4.80 eV → 4.73 eV), and furthermore triggering visible light emission (2.17 eV → 2.20 eV) in irradiated YSZ crystals, thus, enabling the design of novel irradiation-tailored material functionalities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2014

Speed of CMEs and the Magnetic Non-Potentiality of Their Source ARs

Most fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originate from solar active regions (ARs). Non-potentiality of ARs is expected to determine the speed and size of CMEs in the outer corona. Several other unexplored parameters might be important as well. To find out the correlation between the initial speed of CMEs and the non-potentiality of source ARs, we associated over a hundred of CMEs with source ARs via their co-produced flares. The speed of the CMEs are collected from the SOHO LASCO CME catalog. We have used vector magnetograms obtained mainly with HMI/SDO, also with Hinode (SOT/SP) when available within an hour of a CME occurrence, to evaluate various magnetic non-potentiality parameters, e.g. magnetic free-energy proxies, computed magnetic free energy, twist, shear angle, signed shear angle etc. We have also included several other parameters e.g. total unsigned flux, net current, magnetic area of ARs, area of sunspots, to investigate their correlation, if any, with the initial speeds of CMEs. Our preliminary results show that the ARs with larger non-potentiality and area mostly produce fast CMEs but they can also produce slower ones. The ARs with lesser non-potentiality and area generally produce only slower CMEs, however, there are a few exceptions. The total unsigned flux correlate with the non-potentiality parameters and area of ARs but some ARs with large unsigned flux are also found to be least non-potential. A more detailed analysis is underway.

Tiwari, Sanjiv K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Versatile Test Reactor Conceptual Core Design

The VTR is a 300-MW(thermal) sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) designed for the specific purpose of delivering unique testing capabilities to enable the advancement of all reactor technologies. With its flux level, irradiation volume, and operational flexibility, the VTR will enable accelerated testing of materials, fuels, and various components needing irradiation testing. Proven SFR technologies and design approaches have been leveraged in designing the VTR core, ensuring the highest possible readiness level. This resulted in the VTR using ternary metallic fuel and delivering fast flux levels in excess of 4 x 10 15 n/cm 2 ∙ s over large useful volumes, corresponding to about 60 dpa/year in steel. As part of the design efforts, the VTR core performance has been determined for a representative configuration, ensuring that the reactivity control systems offer sufficient shutdown margins, that the core can be safely cooled in all situations, and that reactivity feedback coefficients are conducive to a favorable safety behavior. Furthermore, the incorporation of features such as fuel assembly storage in the shield region supports the flexible and reliable operation of the VTR. Additional design work has been ongoing as well. This includes thorough shielding performance evaluations to ensure safe operation of the VTR, verification and validation of the design tools used to achieve compliance with Nuclear Quality Assurance (NQA-1) requirements, early assessment of the impact of irradiation experiments on the core performance envelope and associated margins, and in-depth uncertainty quantification efforts to quantify the anticipated range of performance characteristics. An experimental program supporting the VTR core design has been set up, with the current focus being on thermal-hydraulic experiments. The purpose of this experimental program is to obtain confirmatory measurements to serve directly as part of the core design basis or as part of the validation cases supporting the simulation tools used.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of Wind Energy Resource Potential for Future Human Missions to Mars

Energy sustainability and redundancy for surface habitats, life support systems and scientific instrumentation represent one of the highest-priority issues for future crewed missions to Mars. However, power sources utilized for the current class of robotic missions to Mars may be potentially dangerous near human surface habitats (for example, nuclear) or lack stability on diurnal or seasonal timescales (for example, solar) that cannot be easily compensated for by power storage. Here, we evaluate the power potential for wind turbines as an alternative energy resource on the Mars surface. Using a state-of-the-art Mars global climate model, we analyse the total planetary Martian wind potential and calculate its spatial and temporal variability. We find that wind speeds at some proposed landing sites are sufficiently fast to provide a stand-alone or complementary energy source to solar or nuclear power. While several regions show promising wind energy resource potential, other regions of scientific interest can be discarded based on the natural solar and wind energy potential alone. We demonstrate that wind energy compensates for diurnal and seasonal reductions in solar power particularly in regions of scientific merit in the midlatitudes and during regional dust storms. Critically, proposed turbines stabilize power production when combined with solar arrays, increasing the percent time that power exceeds estimated mission requirements from ~40% for solar arrays alone to greater than 60-90% across a broad fraction of the Mars surface. We encourage additional study aimed at advancing wind turbine technology to operate efficiently under Mars conditions and to extract more power from Mars winds.

atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recovered supernova Ia rate from simulated LSST images

Aims.TheVera C. RubinObservatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will revolutionize time-domain astronomy by detecting millions of different transients. In particular, it is expected to increase the number of known type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) by a factor of 100 compared to existing samples up to redshift ∼1.2. Such a high number of events will dramatically reduce statistical uncertainties in the analysis of the properties and rates of these objects. However, the impact of all other sources of uncertainty on the measurement of the SN Ia rate must still be evaluated. The comprehension and reduction of such uncertainties will be fundamental both for cosmology and stellar evolution studies, as measuring the SN Ia rate can put constraints on the evolutionary scenarios of different SN Ia progenitors. Methods.We used simulated data from the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge 2 (DC2) and LSST Data Preview 0 to measure the SN Ia rate on a 15 deg 2 region of the “wide-fast-deep” area. We selected a sample of SN candidates detected in difference images, associated them to the host galaxy with a specially developed algorithm, and retrieved their photometric redshifts. We then tested different light-curve classification methods, with and without redshift priors (albeit ignoring contamination from other transients, as DC2 contains only SN Ia). We discuss how the distribution in redshift measured for the SN candidates changes according to the selected host galaxy and redshift estimate. Results.We measured the SN Ia rate, analyzing the impact of uncertainties due to photometric redshift, host-galaxy association and classification on the distribution in redshift of the starting sample. We find that we are missing 17% of the SN Ia, on average, with respect to the simulated sample. As 10% of the mismatch is due to the uncertainty on the photometric redshift alone (which also affects classification when used as a prior), we conclude that this parameter is the major source of uncertainty. We discuss possible reduction of the errors in the measurement of the SN Ia rate, including synergies with other surveys, which may help us to use the rate to discriminate different progenitor models.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Parameterization of cloud transmittance for expeditious assessment and forecasting of all-sky DNI

Radiative transfer models require vast computing resources to solve cloud transmittance and reflectance from the radiative transfer equation. As a result, models offering precise simulation in operations often acquire individual cloud transmittance or reflectance from a lookup table precomputed for practicable scenarios. To further expedite the computation of global horizontal irradiance and to reduce the storage requirements, the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) parameterized the lookup table using elementary functions with specified coefficients. This study extends FARMS direct normal irradiance (DNI) computation by utilizing hyperbolic tangent functions and various polynomial functions to parameterize the cloud transmittance for scattered solar radiation in the circumsolar region. The parameterization is implemented in FARMS with DNI (FARMS-DNI) and accounts for the circumsolar radiation when assessing or forecasting DNI. The evaluation, with long-term observations at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's, Solar Radiation Research Laboratory, and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement, Southern Great Plains, Central Facility, shows that the parameterized DNIs are virtually identical with those computed by coupling FARMS-DNI to a lookup table of cloud transmittance. This parameterization has diverse applications in radiative transfer models and numerical weather prediction models used to assess or forecast direct solar radiation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2010

The OMPS Limb Profiler Instrument: Two-Dimensional Retrieval Algorithm

The upcoming Ozone Mapper and Profiler Suite (OMPS), which will be launched on the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) platform in early 2011, will continue monitoring the global distribution of the Earth's middle atmosphere ozone and aerosol. OMPS is composed of three instruments, namely the Total Column Mapper (heritage: TOMS, OMI), the Nadir Profiler (heritage: SBUV) and the Limb Profiler (heritage: SOLSE/LORE, OSIRIS, SCIAMACHY, SAGE III). The ultimate goal of the mission is to better understand and quantify the rate of stratospheric ozone recovery. The focus of the paper will be on the Limb Profiler (LP) instrument. The LP instrument will measure the Earth's limb radiance (which is due to the scattering of solar photons by air molecules, aerosol and Earth surface) in the ultra-violet (UV), visible and near infrared, from 285 to 1000 nm. The LP simultaneously images the whole vertical extent of the Earth's limb through three vertical slits, each covering a vertical tangent height range of 100 km and each horizontally spaced by 250 km in the cross-track direction. Measurements are made every 19 seconds along the orbit track, which corresponds to a distance of about 150km. Several data analysis tools are presently being constructed and tested to retrieve ozone and aerosol vertical distribution from limb radiance measurements. The primary NASA algorithm is based on earlier algorithms developed for the SOLSE/LORE and SAGE III limb scatter missions. All the existing retrieval algorithms rely on a spherical symmetry assumption for the atmosphere structure. While this assumption is reasonable in most of the stratosphere, it is no longer valid in regions of prime scientific interest, such as polar vortex and UTLS regions. The paper will describe a two-dimensional retrieval algorithm whereby the ozone distribution is simultaneously retrieved vertically and horizontally for a whole orbit. The retrieval code relies on (1) a forward 2D Radiative Transfer code (to model limb radiances within a non-uniform atmosphere and evaluate 2D analytical partial derivatives) and (2) an optimal estimator inversion routine. The algorithm uses the typically sparse nature of the kernel matrices as well as fast matrix inversion techniques to allow for fast inversion of limb data with efficient memory management (as was done for MIPAS data processing). While the method has so far only been developed in the context of Single Scatter, the paper will show how the CPU intensive Multiple Scatter modeling can be implemented using parallel CPU processing. Initial results will be presented in terms of retrieved ozone profiles and code performance.

Rault, Didier F.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Overview and Statistical Analysis of Boundary Layer Clouds and Precipitation Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean

Due to their fast evolution and large natural variability in macro- and microphysical properties, the accurate representation of boundary layer clouds in current climate models remains a challenge. One of the regions with large intermodel spread in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 ensemble is the western North Atlantic Ocean. Here, statistically representative in situ measurements can help to develop and constrain the parameterization of clouds in global models. To this end, we performed comprehensive measurements of boundary layer clouds, aerosol, trace gases, and radiation in the western North Atlantic Ocean during the NASA Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) mission. In total, 174 research flights with 574 flight hours for cloud and precipitation measurements were performed with the HU-25 Falcon during three winter (February–March 2020, January–April 2021, and November 2021–March 2022) and three summer seasons (August–September 2020, May–June 2021, and May–June 2022). Here we present a statistical evaluation of 16 140 individual cloud events probed by the fast cloud droplet probe and the two-dimensional stereo cloud probe during 155 research flights in a representative and repetitive flight strategy allowing for robust statistical data analyses. We show that the vertical profiles of distributions of the liquid water content and the cloud droplet effective diameter (ED) increase with altitude in the marine boundary layer. Due to higher updraft speeds, higher cloud droplet number concentrations (N liquid ) were measured in winter compared to summer despite lower cloud condensation nucleus abundance. Flight cloud cover derived from statistical analysis of in situ data is reduced in summer and shows large variability. This seasonal contrast in cloud coverage is consistent with a dominance of a synoptic pattern in winter that favors conditions for the formation of stratiform clouds at the western edge of cyclones (post-cyclonic). In contrast, a dominant summer anticyclone is concomitant with the occurrence of shallow cumulus clouds and lower cloud coverage. The evaluation of boundary layer clouds and precipitation in the N liquid ED phase space sheds light on liquid, mixed-phase, and ice cloud properties and helps to categorize the cloud data. Ice and liquid precipitation, often masked in cloud statistics by a high abundance of liquid clouds, is often observed throughout the cloud. The ACTIVATE in situ cloud measurements provide a wealth of cloud information useful for assessing airborne and satellite remote-sensing products, for global climate and weather model evaluations, and for dedicated process studies that address precipitation and aerosol–cloud interactions.

Aerosol↗
NASA NTRS1993

Benefits gained and lessons learned from NASA's Small Explorer (SMEX) Program

NASA's Small Explorer Program (SMEX) is a sustained program of scientific satellites limited in mass to 200-300 kg (depending on orbital inclination) for a 500-km circular orbit. The SMEX program was undertaken to obtain the benefits of scientific yield, short development time, and high flight rate, with the goal to launch a mission every year. NASA also uses the program to train engineers and managers in designing and developing spacecraft. The phases of a SMEX mission life cycle are described including the competitive selection of missions through announcement of opportunity and evaluation of proposals, the definition of mission and system requirements, design and development of the spacecraft, testing, launch, and operations. Program content of some SMEX missions is then reviewed. The first SMEX mission was the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer, which confirmed that anomalous cosmic rays are only partially ionized atoms. The Fast Auroral Snapshot Explorer was intended to measure the electric, magnetic, and time-variable fields and to record particle flow in the auroral acceleration region. A future mission is the Submillimeter Wave Astronomy Satellite to examine low-level molecular transitions.

Gilman, David↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Impedance-Based Complexity Metric for Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Scenario Classification

This paper introduces an impedance-based metric to capture the complexity of a given unmanned aircraft system traffic scenario. The metric accounts for both the number of aircraft and the traffic flow pattern. The work presented here extends an earlier approach that introduced another scenario complexity metric based on the number of potential conflicts weighted by the conflict resolution cost associated. Complexity measurements for randomly-generated scenarios were produced through high-fidelity fast-time simulations and treated as baseline. Then the impedance based metric was evaluated, for the same scenarios, without the need for an actual flight simulation and a conflict resolution method. The results show that the impedance-based metric has a strong correlation to the baseline data and performs marginally better than the weighted conflict-based complexity metric introduced in the earlier work. The metric computation generates impedance maps which are useful for identifying high complexity regions in a scenario, where flight plan changes might be necessitated. This metric can therefore be used, in conjunction with other complexity metrics, to inform adequate traffic management strategies and classify a traffic scenario as acceptable, unacceptable or acceptable with changes made to flight plans that pass through the high complexity regions. The metric can also be used as a guidance metric for strategic conflict management methods.

Complexity↗
NASA NTRS2004

Buoyancy Effects on Flow Structure and Instability of Low-Density Gas Jets

A low-density gas jet injected into a high-density ambient gas is known to exhibit self-excited global oscillations accompanied by large vortical structures interacting with the flow field. The primary objective of the proposed research is to study buoyancy effects on the origin and nature of the flow instability and structure in the near-field of low-density gas jets. Quantitative rainbow schlieren deflectometry, Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and Linear stability analysis were the techniques employed to scale the buoyancy effects. The formation and evolution of vortices and scalar structure of the flow field are investigated in buoyant helium jets discharged from a vertical tube into quiescent air. Oscillations at identical frequency were observed throughout the flow field. The evolving flow structure is described by helium mole percentage contours during an oscillation cycle. Instantaneous, mean, and RMS concentration profiles are presented to describe interactions of the vortex with the jet flow. Oscillations in a narrow wake region near the jet exit are shown to spread through the jet core near the downstream location of the vortex formation. The effects of jet Richardson number on characteristics of vortex and flow field are investigated and discussed. The laminar, axisymmetric, unsteady jet flow of helium injected into air was simulated using CFD. Global oscillations were observed in the flow field. The computed oscillation frequency agreed qualitatively with the experimentally measured frequency. Contours of helium concentration, vorticity and velocity provided information about the evolution and propagation of vortices in the oscillating flow field. Buoyancy effects on the instability mode were evaluated by rainbow schlieren flow visualization and concentration measurements in the near-field of self-excited helium jets undergoing gravitational change in the microgravity environment of 2.2s drop tower at NASA John H. Glenn Research Center. The jet Reynolds number was varied from 200 to 1500 and jet Richardson number was varied from 0.72 to 0.002. Power spectra plots generated from Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) analysis of angular deflection data acquired at a temporal resolution of 1000Hz reveal substantial damping of the oscillation amplitude in microgravity at low Richardson numbers (~0.002). Quantitative concentration data in the form of spatial and temporal evolutions of the instability data in Earth gravity and microgravity reveal significant variations in the jet flow structure upon removal of buoyancy forces. Radial variation of the frequency spectra and time traces of helium concentration revealed the importance of gravitational effects in the jet shear layer region. Linear temporal and spatio-temporal stability analyses of a low-density round gas jet injected into a high-density ambient gas were performed by assuming hyper-tan mean velocity and density profiles. The flow was assumed to be non parallel. Viscous and diffusive effects were ignored. The mean flow parameters were represented as the sum of the mean value and a small normal-mode fluctuation. A second order differential equation governing the pressure disturbance amplitude was derived from the basic conservation equations. The effects of the inhomogeneous shear layer and the Froude number (signifying the effects of gravity) on the temporal and spatio-temporal results were delineated. A decrease in the density ratio (ratio of the density of the jet to the density of the ambient gas) resulted in an increase in the temporal amplification rate of the disturbances. The temporal growth rate of the disturbances increased as the Froude number was reduced. The spatio-temporal analysis performed to determine the absolute instability characteristics of the jet yield positive absolute temporal growth rates at all Fr and different axial locations. As buoyancy was removed (Fr . 8), the previously existing absolute instability disappeared at all locations establhing buoyancy as the primary instability mechanism in self-excited low-density jets.

Pasumarthi, Kasyap Sriramachandra↗
DOE OSTI2025

IER 516: Zirconium Test Assembly CED Phase-1: Preliminary Experiment Design

IER-516, Zirconium Test Assembly (ZTA), is a campaign to design, execute, and document a series of high-fidelity critical benchmark experiments to validate current and future zirconium (Zr) and zirconium hydride (ZrH x ) nuclear data evaluations. ZTA is a collaborative project between Los Alamos National Laboratory and the French Autoritè de Sûretè Nuclèaire et de Radioprotection. The experiments will be fueled with highly enriched uranium (HEU), and utilize the Comet critical assembly machine at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center. A total of ten preliminary critical experiments were designed and optimized for Zr and ZrHx nuclear data sensitivities using the MCNP-Particle Swarm Optimization methodology in the thermal, epithermal, intermediate, and fast neutron energy regions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast and accurate influenza forecasting in the United States with Inferno

Infectious disease forecasting is an emerging field and has the potential to improve public health through anticipatory resource allocation, situational awareness, and mitigation planning. By way of exploring and operationalizing disease forecasting, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted FluSight since the 2013/14 flu season, an annual flu forecasting challenge. Since FluSight’s onset, forecasters have developed and improved forecasting models in an effort to provide more timely, reliable, and accurate information about the likely progression of the outbreak. While improving the predictive performance of these forecasting models is often the primary objective, it is also important for a forecasting model to run quickly, facilitating further model development and improvement while providing flexibility when deployed in a real-time setting. In this vein I introduce Inferno, a fast and accurate flu forecasting model inspired by Dante, the top performing model in the 2018/19 FluSight challenge. When pseudoprospectively compared to all models that participated in FluSight 2018/19, Inferno would have placed 2nd in the national and regional challenge as well as the state challenge, behind only Dante. Inferno, however, runs in minutes and is trivially parallelizable, while Dante takes hours to run, representing a significant operational improvement with minimal impact to performance. Forecasting challenges like FluSight should continue to monitor and evaluate how they can be modified and expanded to incentivize the development of forecasting models that benefit public health.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

BTE-Sim: Fast Simulation Environment For Public Transportation

The public commute is essential to all urban centers and is an efficient and environment-friendly way to travel. Transit systems must become more accessible and user-friendly. Since public transit is majorly designed statically, with very few improvements coming over time, it can get stagnated, unable to update itself with changing population trends. To better understand transportation demands and make them more usable, efficient, and demographic-focused, we propose a fast, multi-layered transit simulation that primarily focuses on public transit simulation (BTE-Sim). BTE-Sim is designed based on the population demand, existing traffic conditions, and the road networks that exist in a region. The system is versatile, with the ability to run different configurations of the existing transit routes, or inculcate any new changes that may seem necessary, or even in extreme cases, new transit network design as well. In all situations, it can compare multiple transit networks and provide evaluation metrics for them. It provides detailed data on each transit vehicle, the trips it performs, its on-time performance and other necessary factors. Its highlighting feature is the considerably low computation time it requires to perform all these tasks and provide consistently reliable results.

Sen, Rishav↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Semi-Analytical Solution Approach for Solving Constant-Coefficient First-Order Partial Differential Equations

Simulation and control of many dynamic systems involve solving partial differential equations (PDE). This letter proposes a semi-analytical solution (SAS) approach for fast and high-quality solution of first-order PDEs. The region of interest of the studied PDE is divided into a grid, and an SAS is derived for each grid cell in the form of the multivariate polynomials, of which the coefficients are identified using initial value and boundary value conditions. The solutions are solved in a “time-stepping” manner, i.e. within one time step, the coefficients of the SAS are identified and the initial value of the next time step is evaluated. This approach achieves a significantly larger grid cell than the widely used finite difference method, and thus enhances the computational efficiency significantly. Furthermore, the simulation result on the natural gas pipeline model demonstrates the advantages of SAS in accuracy and computational efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗