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New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 5: Mapping Climate Risk

The mapping work of the NPCC is focused on illustrating spatial climate risk information to inform policy makers, stakeholders, and the public of the distribution of climate risk across the landscape of New York City. Flood risk, overall, has been the primary focus of climate risk, based on a variety of approaches including global climate models, semiempirical studies, literature surveys, expert opinion, and historic tide gauge and more recently, satellite observations of sea level rise. Maps of potential future flood extents are used to visualize coastal flooding extents at the neighborhood scale and to assess the progression of citywide flood risk throughout the 21st century. The NPCC maps were developed as a tool to illustrate our present understanding of the potential futures for which we need to prepare. This chapter reviews the background, methodology, and limitations of the NPCC3 (and NPCC2) mapping approach and features new citywide maps of mean sea level rise, monthly tidal flooding, and 100year return period flooding under a high end scenario of sea level rise. It concludes with a discussion of future mapping efforts and next steps that the NPCC could consider.

Patrick, Lesley

Anomalous features in thermal radiance maps of Venus

Seventeen thermal radiance maps of Venus were recorded in a 26-day interval near the 1977 conjunction. An average symmetrical two-dimensional function was removed from the data. Features remain near the east and west limbs which correspond in part to previously reported solar-related effects but there are important differences, and reasons are given for questioning the interpretation of some of the earlier data. It is concluded that these features cannot be solely under solar control. Features are also found at both poles, just inside the region covered by the ultraviolet polar hood. These are not inconsistent with disturbances rotating rapidly around the planet. There is weak evidence for a 5-day repetition in some features.

Apt, J.

Windblown Features on Venus and Geological Mapping

The objectives of this study were to: 1) develop a global data base of aeolian features by searching Magellan coverage for possible time-variable wind streaks, 2) analyze the data base to characterize aeolian features and processes on Venus, 3) apply the analysis to assessments of wind patterns near the surface and for comparisons with atmospheric circulation models, 4) analyze shuttle radar data acquired for aeolian features on Earth to determine their radar characteristics, and 5) conduct geological mapping of two quadrangles. Wind, or aeolian, features are observed on Venus and aeolian processes play a role in modifying its surface. Analysis of features resulting from aeolian processes provides insight into characteristics of both the atmosphere and the surface. Wind related features identified on Venus include erosional landforms (yardangs), depositional dune fields, and features resulting from the interaction of the atmosphere and crater ejecta at the time of impact. The most abundant aeolian features are various wind streaks. Their discovery on Venus afforded the opportunity to learn about the interaction of the atmosphere and surface, both for the identification of sediments and in mapping near-surface winds.

Greeley, Ronald

Recognition of beach and nearshore depositional features of Chesapeake Bay

Beach and nearshore depositional features are being mapped with the objectives of determining a quick-look analysis of littoral drift and sedimentation patterns in areas of little or no data. Evaluation of beach and nearshore features aid in the selection of small boat harbors, shoreline protective structures, and general coastal zone development. Through ERTS-1 aircraft support imagery, beach depositional features mapped are cuspate forelands, welded beach ridges, and recurved spits. The nearshore depositional features exhibit a bar and trough topography with three distinct types of sedimentary structures; longshore, transverse, and reticulated bars. Synoptic coverage of beach and nearshore depositional features by ERTS-1 data help in determining the general sedimentation patterns, growth of the beach features and stability of the bar and trough topography.

Kerhin, R. T.

Preliminary analysis of Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) for mineralogic mapping at sites in Nevada and Colorado

Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data for sites in Nevada and Colorado were evaluated to determine their utility for mineralogical mapping in support of geologic investigations. Equal energy normalization is commonly used with imaging spectrometer data to reduce albedo effects. Spectra, profiles, and stacked, color-coded spectra were extracted from the AVIRIS data using an interactive analysis program (QLook) and these derivative data were compared to Airborne Imaging Spectrometer (AIS) results, field and laboratory spectra, and geologic maps. A feature extraction algorithm was used to extract and characterize absorption features from AVIRIS and laboratory spectra, allowing direct comparison of the position and shape of absorption features. Both muscovite and carbonate spectra were identified in the Nevada AVIRIS data by comparison with laboratory and AIS spectra, and an image was made that showed the distribution of these minerals for the entire site. Additional, distinctive spectra were located for an unknown mineral. For the two Colorado sites, the signal-to-noise problem was significantly worse and attempts to extract meaningful spectra were unsuccessful. Problems with the Colorado AVIRIS data were accentuated by the IAR reflectance technique because of moderate vegetation cover. Improved signal-to-noise and alternative calibration procedures will be required to produce satisfactory reflectance spectra from these data. Although the AVIRIS data were useful for mapping strong mineral absorption features and producing mineral maps at the Nevada site, it is clear that significant improvements to the instrument performance are required before AVIRIS will be an operational instrument.

Kruse, Fred A.

Multispectral and geomorphic studies of processed Voyager 2 images of Europa

High resolution images of Europa taken by the Voyager 2 spacecraft were used to study a portion of Europa's dark lineations and the major white line feature Agenor Linea. Initial image processing of images 1195J2-001 (violet filter), 1198J2-001 (blue filter), 1201J2-001 (orange filter), and 1204J2-001 (ultraviolet filter) was performed at the U.S.G.S. Branch of Astrogeology in Flagstaff, Arizona. Processing was completed through the stages of image registration and color ratio image construction. Pixel printouts were used in a new technique of linear feature profiling to compensate for image misregistration through the mapping of features on the printouts. In all, 193 dark lineation segments were mapped and profiled. The more accurate multispectral data derived by this method was plotted using a new application of the ternary diagram, with orange, blue, and violet relative spectral reflectances serving as end members. Statistical techniques were then applied to the ternary diagram plots. The image products generated at LPI were used mainly to cross-check and verify the results of the ternary diagram analysis.

Meier, T. A.

The effects of AVIRIS atmospheric calibration methodology on identification and quantitative mapping of surface mineralogy, Drum Mountains, Utah

The Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) measures reflected light in 224 contiguous spectra bands in the 0.4 to 2.45 micron region of the electromagnetic spectrum. Numerous studies have used these data for mineralogic identification and mapping based on the presence of diagnostic spectral features. Quantitative mapping requires conversion of the AVIRIS data to physical units (usually reflectance) so that analysis results can be compared and validated with field and laboratory measurements. This study evaluated two different AVIRIS calibration techniques to ground reflectance: an empirically-based method and an atmospheric model based method to determine their effects on quantitative scientific analyses. Expert system analysis and linear spectral unmixing were applied to both calibrated data sets to determine the effect of the calibration on the mineral identification and quantitative mapping results. Comparison of the image-map results and image reflectance spectra indicate that the model-based calibrated data can be used with automated mapping techniques to produce accurate maps showing the spatial distribution and abundance of surface mineralogy. This has positive implications for future operational mapping using AVIRIS or similar imaging spectrometer data sets without requiring a priori knowledge.

Kruse, Fred A.

Manifestations of Strike-Slip Faulting on Ganymede

Voyager images of Ganymede suggested that strike-slip faulting may have taken place [1, 2], but the role of this process in shaping grooved terrain was uncertain. In Galileo high-resolution images of Ganymede's surface, we recognize three signature features of strike-slip faulting: (1) en echelon structures, (2) strike-slip duplexes, and (3) offset preexisting features. We have undertaken a study to recognize and map these features, and identify any morphological progressions of strike-slip features. This will allow a better understanding of the structural history of Ganymede, and the formation and evolution of grooved terrain.

DeRemer, Lindsay C.

The Fredegonde (V-57) Quadrangle, Venus: Characterization of the Venus Midlands

The Fredegonde quadrangle (V-57, 50-75degS, 60-120degE) in the southern hemisphere of Venus represents a typical region of midlands (0-2 km above MPR). Midlands are the most widespread topographic province on Venus (approx.80%) and display the richest variety of features. Geological mapping in the V-57 quadrangle provides the possibility of defining and characterizing units that make up a region of midlands and to establish the general sequence of events there and thus address questions about the modes of formation and chronology of midlands on Venus. The map area is in contact with the uplands in the central portion of Lada Terra to the west and the lowlands of Aino Planitia to the northeast. This position also provides a transitional zone between the other two major topographic provinces, similar to that of the Meskhent Tessera (V-3) area. Here we report on the results of our mapping in the V-57 quadrangle, describe the major features, units, and structural assemblages exposed there, and outline the main episodes of geologic history.

Ivanov, M. A.

Investigation of long-lived eddies on Jupiter

Quasi-geostrophic, two layer models of the Jovian atmosphere are under development; these may be used to simulate eddy phemonena in the atmosphere and include tracer dynamics explicitly. The models permit the investigation of the dynamics of quasi-geostrophic eddies under more controlled conditions than are possible in the laboratory. They can also be used to predict the distribution and behavior of tracer species, and hence to discriminate between different models of the mechanisms forcing the eddies, provided suitable observations can be obtained. At the same time, observational strategies are being developed for the Near Infrared Mapping Spectrometer on the Galileo Orbiter, with the objective of obtaining composition measurements for comparison with the models. Maps of features at thermal infrared wavelengths near 5 micron and reflected sunlight maps as a function of wavelength and phase angle will be obtained. These should provide further useful information on the morphology, composition and microstructure of clouds within eddy features. Equilibrium chemistry models which incorporate advection may then be used to relate these results of the dynamical models and provide addtional means of classifying different types of eddies.

Lewis, S. R.

Large Impact Features on Icy Galilean Satellites: Implications for Ice Shell Thickness and Habitability.

Nowhere in the solar system are impact morphologies observed in greater variety than on the icy Galilean satellites. This is very likely a consequence of the structural and thermal state of the crust at the time of impact, and perhaps impact velocity. We have conducted a multi-disciplinary investigation to study how these features formed. The particular combination of geophysical factors and impactor characteristics that is shared by these satellites is likely responsible for these features. We have derived Digital Terrain Models for a number of these features, which have been used as a tool for producing facies maps. Impact features on Ganymede and Callisto are relatable to impact features on Europa, with implications for its ice shell history. We have identified two broad classes of these impact features: (a) Crater forms, which variously include pits, central domes, and crater rims; and (b) Palimpsests (including pene-palimpsests), which all have smooth enclosed central plains, an extensive outer undulating plains unit, concentric arcuate ridges(in the case of pene-palimpsests), and no recognizable rim. The very large, measured volume of the undulating plains unit of the pene-palimpsest Buto, Ganymede, substantially exceeds the amount of target material that could have been both melted and excavated by the impact event itself. Therefore, we conclude that the undulating plains material was derived from a fluid or “slushy” layer in the near-surface target at the time of impact. The recognition of undulating plains as the dominant unit in Memphis and Nidaba, two other palimpsests on Ganymede that we have mapped(which display highly variable crater counts, with Buto being the least cratered),leads us to a working hypothesis that these plains only form where and when the target has substantial near surface fluid or “slush.” By extension, all other impact features on Ganymede and Callisto, such as those with central pits and central domes, formed in targets with no pre-existing, or at most inconsequential, amounts of fluid or “slush.” Supporting this conclusion, modeling by members of our group indicates that the present topography of impact features with central pits and domes can be largely explained by the behavior of ice alone, with no or little contribution from fluids. Our study supports explanations for the formation and final appearance of palimpsests (and pene-palimpsests) that are entirely applicable to this feature class, and sharply distinct from explanations for other impact features (crater forms) on Ganymede and Callisto.

Jeffrey M Moore

A new computer approach to mixed feature classification for forestry application

A computer approach for mapping mixed forest features (i.e., types, classes) from computer classification maps is discussed. Mixed features such as mixed softwood/hardwood stands are treated as admixtures of softwood and hardwood areas. Large-area mixed features are identified and small-area features neglected when the nominal size of a mixed feature can be specified. The computer program merges small isolated areas into surrounding areas by the iterative manipulation of the postprocessing algorithm that eliminates small connected sets. For a forestry application, computer-classified LANDSAT multispectral scanner data of the Sam Houston National Forest were used to demonstrate the proposed approach. The technique was successful in cleaning the salt-and-pepper appearance of multiclass classification maps and in mapping admixtures of softwood areas and hardwood areas. However, the computer-mapped mixed areas matched very poorly with the ground truth because of inadequate resolution and inappropriate definition of mixed features.

Kan, E. P.

Visualizing Geospatial Data through ESRI Story Maps for Earth Science Education: Lessons Learned from My NASA Data

For 20 years My NASA Data (MND) has curated NASA Earth science data and provided the data to educators in engaging learner-centered resources. MND has recently featured story maps as an innovative way to engage students in NASA Earth data. A story map is a cloud-based lesson that engages the learner in interactive geospatial maps using NASA data, and other multimedia content, text, and tasks that can be seamlessly incorporated in classroom instruction. This immersive technology eliminates the need for the user to move among tricky interfaces to access and visualize Earth science data, and no special software is required to be downloaded. Each story map integrates data from different NASA satellite missions, retrieved from Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs). Story maps also employ data analysis tools, such as time series options and swipe tools that allow learners to view and analyze relationships between scientific variables. MND has produced 25 story map lesson plans on the topics of air quality, the urban heat island effect, Earth’s energy budget, phytoplankton distribution, hurricane formation, solar eclipses, ocean circulation patterns, sea ice extent, and volcanic eruptions. Nine of them are extended story maps and written in the 5E format, which is internationally recognized as best practice based on how children learn science. Each story map resource is developed by the MND team featuring a GIS programming specialist, a lead scientist, and educational specialist/s to ensure the context, content, and methods are scientifically and educationally sound. The MND story maps are written for middle and high school science teachers and students as they connect with the Earth Systems Science phenomena featured in the Next Generation Science Standards. Each story map includes supporting resources for smooth integration in the classroom. During Fiscal Year 2023, The My NASA Data website received over 100,000 story map engagements during. These metrics highlight the interest in story maps as an Earth Science educational resource.

Desiray Wilson

Decomposition Technique for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

The prognostic tool disclosed here decomposes the problem of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a component or sub-system into two separate regression problems: the feature-to-damage mapping and the operational conditions-to-damage-rate mapping. These maps are initially generated in off-line mode. One or more regression algorithms are used to generate each of these maps from measurements (and features derived from these), operational conditions, and ground truth information. This decomposition technique allows for the explicit quantification and management of different sources of uncertainty present in the process. Next, the maps are used in an on-line mode where run-time data (sensor measurements and operational conditions) are used in conjunction with the maps generated in off-line mode to estimate both current damage state as well as future damage accumulation. Remaining life is computed by subtracting the instance when the extrapolated damage reaches the failure threshold from the instance when the prediction is made.

Saha, Bhaskar

A Forecast of Reduced Solar Activity and Its Implications for NASA

The "Solar Dynamo" method of solar activity forecasting is reviewed. Known generically as a 'precursor" method, insofar as it uses observations which precede solar activity generation, this method now uses the Solar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) Index to estimate future long-term solar activity. The peak amplitude of the next solar cycle (#24), is estimated at roughly 124 in terms of smoothed F10.7 Radio Flux and 74 in terms of the older, more traditional smoothed international or Zurich Sunspot number (Ri or Rz). These values are significantly smaller than the amplitudes of recent solar cycles. Levels of activity stay large for about four years near the peak in smoothed activity, which is estimated to occur near the 2012 timeflame. Confidence is added to the prediction of low activity by numerous examinations of the Sun s weakened polar field. Direct measurements are obtained by the Mount Wilson Solar Observatory and the Wilcox Solar Observatory. Further support is obtained by examining the Sun s polar faculae (bright features), the shape of coronal soft X-ray "holes," and the shape of the "source surface" - a calculated coronal feature which maps the large scale structure of the Sun s field. These features do not show the characteristics of well-formed polar coronal holes associated with typical solar minima. They show stunted polar field levels, which are thought to result in stunted levels of solar activity during solar cycle #24. The reduced levels of solar activity would have concomitant effects upon the space environment in which satellites orbit. In particular, the largest influences would affect orbit determination of satellites in LEO (Low Earth Orbit), based upon the altered thermospheric and exospheric densities. A decrease in solar activity would result in smaller satellite decay rates, as well as fewer large solar events that can destroy satellite electronic functions. Other effects of reduced solar activity upon the space environment include enhanced galactic cosmic rays and more space debris at low altitudes (from the decay of old satellite parts, etc.). The reasons are well known: namely, solar activity serves to sweep the inner heliosphere of galactic cosmic rays, and lower exospheric densities result in decreased drag on LEO debris, allowing longer lifetimes.

Schatten, Kenneth

Preliminary Assessment of JERS-1 SAR to Discriminating Boreal Landscape Features for the Boreal Forest Mapping Project

This paper presents an overview of the JERS-1 North American Boreal Forest Mapping Project and a preliminary assessment of JERS-1 SAR imagery for application to discriminating features applicable to boreal landscape processes. The present focus of the JERS-1 North American Boreal Forest Mapping Project is the production of continental scale wintertime and summertime SAR mosaics of the North American boreal forest for distribution to the science community. As part of this effort, JERS-1 imagery has been collected over much of Alaska and Canada during the 1997-98 winter and 1998 summer seasons. To complete the mosaics, these data will be augmented with data collected during previous years. These data will be made available to the scientific community via CD ROM containing these and similar data sets compiled from companion studies of Asia and Europe. Regional landscape classification with SAR is important for the baseline information it will provide about distribution of woodlands, positions of treeline, current forest biomass, distribution of wetlands, and extent of major rivercourses. As well as setting the stage for longer term change detection, comparisons across several years provides additional baseline information about short-term landscape change. Rapid changes, including those driven by fire, permafrost heat balance, flooding, and insect outbreaks can dominate boreal systems. We examine JERS-1 imagery covering selected sites in Alaska and Canada to assess quality and applicability to such relevant ecological and hydrological issues. The data are generally of high quality and illustrate many potential applications. A texture-based classification scheme is applied to selected regions to assess the applicability of these data for distinguishing distribution of such landcover types as wetland, tundra, woodland and forested landscapes.

McDonald, Kyle

Inventory and analysis of natural vegetation and related resources from space and high altitude photography

A high altitude photomosaic resource map of Site 29 was produced which provided an opportunity to test photo interpretation accuracy of natural vegetation resource features when mapped at a small (1:133,400) scale. Helicopter reconnaissance over 144 previously selected test points revealed a highly adequate level of photo interpretation accuracy. In general, the reasons for errors could be accounted for. The same photomosaic resource map enabled construction of interpretive land use overlays. Based on features of the landscape, including natural vegetation types, judgements for land use suitability were made and have been presented for two types of potential land use. These two, agriculture and urbanization, represent potential land use conflicts.

Poulton, C. E.

Korean coastal water depth/sediment and land cover mapping /1:25,000/ by computer analysis of Landsat imagery

Computer analysis was applied to single data Landsat MSS imagery of a coastal area near Seoul, Korea equivalent to a 1:50,000 topographic map, and featuring large dynamic sediment transport processes. Supervised image processing yielded a test classification map containing five water depth/sediment classes, two shoreline/tidal classes and five coastal land cover classes at a scale of 1:25,000 and with a training set accuracy of 76%; the training sets were selected by direct examination of the digitally displayed imagery. The unsupervised ISOCLAS (Senkus, 1976) clustering analysis was performed to assess the relative value of this approach to image classification in areas of sparse or nonexistent ground control. Results indicate that it is feasible to produce quantitative maps for detailed study of dynamic coastal processes given a Landsat image data base at sufficiently frequent time intervals.

Park, K. Y.