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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Government Personnel Participation in Suborbital Space Flight

In 2020, NASA issued a Request for Information (RFI) from potential sources for Suborbital Crew (SubC) space transportation services. NASA recognizes the advancement of the commercial suborbital space flight industry and is currently working to develop suborbital transportation for Government personnel that could fly on commercially available suborbital vehicles and determine a systems qualification approach for flight risk acceptance. Prior examples of risk assessment such as the purchase of Soyuz missions serve as a foundation for how the US Government’s best technical experts can partner with a successfully flying industry provider to understand risks. More recently, NASA, the FAA, and industry have successfully demonstrated that a company-owned operation with government oversight can successfully launch Government Astronauts safely. This paper explores the challenges and opportunities presented with the use of suborbital vehicles by Government personnel and how industry might leverage the Government’s efforts to maximize the success of the suborbital space industry.

Risk Management↗
NASA NTRS2008

Close Approach Prediction Analysis of the Earth Science Constellation with the Fengyun-1C Debris

Routine satellite operations for the Earth Science Constellation (ESC) include collision risk assessment between members of the constellation and other orbiting space objects. Each day, close approach predictions are generated by a U.S. Department of Defense Joint Space Operations Center Orbital Safety Analyst using the high accuracy Space Object Catalog maintained by the Air Force's 1" Space Control Squadron. Prediction results and other ancillary data such as state vector information are sent to NASAJGoddard Space Flight Center's (GSFC's) Collision Risk Assessment analysis team for review. Collision analysis is performed and the GSFC team works with the ESC member missions to develop risk reduction strategies as necessary. This paper presents various close approach statistics for the ESC. The ESC missions have been affected by debris from the recent anti-satellite test which destroyed the Chinese Fengyun- 1 C satellite. The paper also presents the percentage of close approach events induced by the Fengyun-1C debris, and presents analysis results which predict the future effects on the ESC caused by this event. Specifically, the Fengyun-1C debris is propagated for twenty years using high-performance computing technology and close approach predictions are generated for the ESC. The percent increase in the total number of conjunction events is considered to be an estimate of the collision risk due to the Fengyun-1C break- UP.

Duncan, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2002

Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process

Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.

Paul S. Ray↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Risk Assessment of Obstacle Collision for UAVs under off-nominal conditions

Enabling operations of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace, demands the need of robust risk monitoring framework for assessing the safety of airspace, ground-structures and people. As widespread applications emerge, the need of risk assessment becomes increasingly important for UAV flights beyond visual line-of-sight, especially subjected to off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability or environmental disturbances such as wind gusts in an urban canyon. From a safety perspective, collision with obstacles can be detrimental not only to the vehicle and payload, but also to the structure and people on ground. Although it is safe to assume that approved UAVs would be equipped with collision avoidance systems, risk of collision which can be predicted for a flight trajectory even before the UAV encounters any obstacle is beneficial to resolve contingencies in its decision-making under off-nominal conditions. In this paper, a framework is presented for computing the risk of collision with obstacle based on a UAV's predicted trajectory, proximity to static and dynamic obstacles, sub-system state-of-health and external wind conditions. The conditional probability of trajectory deviation is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) based on on-board sensor measurements. Further, a kinematic 3-DOF model is implemented to compute deviation in UAV's trajectory subjected to one case study of off-nominal condition i.e. wind gusts. Finally, the integrated risk factor is demonstrated on real data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center, in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. The proposed approach would enable risk-informed decision making process for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events.

Portia Banerjee↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Risk Assessment of Obstacle Collision for UAVs under Off-nominal Conditions

Enabling operations of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace demands the need of robust risk monitoring framework for assessing the safety of airspace, ground structures and people. As widespread applications emerge, the need of risk assessment becomes increasingly important for UAV flights beyond visual line-of-sight, especially subjected to off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability or environmental disturbances such as wind gusts in an urban canyon. From a safety perspective, collision with obstacles can be detrimental not only to the vehicle and payload, but also to the structure and people on ground. Although it is safe to assume that approved UAVs would be equipped with collision avoidance systems, risk of collision which can be predicted for a flight trajectory even before the UAV encounters any obstacle is beneficial to resolve contingencies in its decision-making under off-nominal conditions. In this paper, a framework is presented for computing the risk of collision with obstacle based on a UAV’s predicted trajectory, proximity to static and dynamic obstacles, sub-system state-of-health and external wind conditions. The conditional probability of trajectory deviation is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) based on on-board sensor measurements. Further, a kinematic 3-DOF model is implemented to compute deviation in UAV’s trajectory subjected to one case study of off-nominal condition i.e. wind gusts. Finally, the integrated risk factor is demonstrated on real data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center, in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. The proposed approach would enable risk-informed decision making process for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events.

Bayesian network↗
NASA NTRS2007

Independent Review Support for Phoenix Mars Mission Robotic Arm Brush Motor Failure

The Phoenix Project requested the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) perform an independent peer review of the Robotic Arm (RA) Direct Current (DC) motor brush anomalies that originated during the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) Project and recurred during the Phoenix Project. The request was to evaluate the Phoenix Project investigation efforts and provide an independent risk assessment. This includes a recommendation for additional work and assessment of the flight worthiness of the RA DC motors. Based on the investigation and findings contained within this report, the IRT concurs with the risk assessment Failure Cause / Corrective Action (FC/CA) by the project, "Failure Effect Rating "3"; Major Degradation or Total Loss of Function, Failure Cause/Corrective Action Rating Currently "4"; Unknown Cause, Uncertainty in Corrective Action."

McManamen, John P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of a Sustained Lunar Presence

The Artemis Base Camp will be our first sustainable foothold on the lunar frontier. The base camp includes a lunar surface habitat, power systems, and infrastructure needed to develop capabilities on future missions to Mars. NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methodologies tend to focus on in-flight Loss of Crew (LOC) or Loss of Vehicle (LOV) risk estimates for short mission durations. However, lunar habit support systems and power generation systems will need to continuously operate. Existing risk methodologies will need to adapt to understand risk drivers in new environments under different operating conditions, such as lunar dust and increased micro-meteoroid exposure. Insights from the nuclear and oil industries can provide guidance to NASA risk practitioners to tackle this new challenge.

risk assessment↗
NASA NTRS2012

Risk Assessment and Scaling for the SLS LH2 ET

In this report the main physics processes in LH2 tank during prepress and rocket flight are studied. The goal of this investigation is to analyze possible hazards and to make risk assessment in proposed LH2 tank designs for SLS with 5 engines (the situation with 4 engines is less critical). For analysis we use the multinode model (MNM) developed by us and presented in a separate report and also 3D ANSYS simulations. We carry out simulation and theoretical analysis the physics processes such as (i) accumulation of bubbles in LH2 during replenish stage and their collapsing in the liquid during the prepress; (ii) condensation-evaporation at the liquid-vapor interface and tank wall, (iv) heating the liquid near the interface and wall due to condensation and environment heat, (v) injection of hot He during prepress and of hot GH2 during flight, (vi) mixing and cooling of the injected gases due to heat transfer between the gases, liquid and the tank wall. We analyze the effects of these physical processes on the thermo- and fluid gas dynamics in the ullage and on the stratification of temperature in the liquid and assess the associated hazards. A special emphasize is put on the scaling predictions for the larger SLS LH2 tank.

Hafiychuk, Halyna↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Comprehensive Characterization of Microorganisms and Allergens in Spacecraft Environment

The determination of risk from infectious disease during long-duration missions is composed of several factors including (1) the host#s susceptibility, (2) the host#s exposure to the infectious disease agent, and (3) the concentration of the infectious agent, and (4) the characteristics of the infectious agent. While stringent steps are taken to minimize the transfer of potential pathogens to spacecraft, several medically significant organisms have been isolated from both the Mir and International Space Station (ISS). Historically, the method for isolation and identification of microorganisms from spacecraft environmental samples depended upon their growth on culture media. Unfortunately, only a fraction of the organisms may grow on a culture medium, potentially omitting those microorganisms whose nutritional and physical requirements for growth are not met. Thus, several pathogens may not have been detected, such as Legionella pneumophila, the etiological agent of Legionnaire#s disease. We hypothesize that environmental analysis using non-culture-based technologies will reveal microorganisms, allergens, and microbial toxins not previously reported in spacecraft, allowing for a more complete health assessment. The development of techniques for this flight experiment, operationally named SWAB, has already provided advances in NASA laboratory processes and beneficial information toward human health risk assessment. The first accomplishment of the SWAB experiment was the incorporation of 16S ribosomal DNA sequencing for the identification of bacteria. The use of this molecular technique has increased bacterial speciation of environmental isolates from previous flights three fold compared to conventional methodology. This increased efficiency in bacterial speciation provides a better understanding of the microbial ecology and the potential risk to the crew. Additional SWAB studies focused on the use of molecular-based DNA fingerprinting using repetitive sequencebased polymerase chain reaction (rep-PCR). This technology has allowed contamination tracking of microorganisms between crewmembers and their environment. This study not only demonstrated that ISS has a greater diversity of organisms than originally expected, but also provided insight into possible routes of infection to the crew. Additional ground-based studies used rep-PCR and protein based assays to determine the potential of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) aboard ISS. MRSA has become increasingly common on Earth and pose a treatment problem for infections during flight. While no MRSA have been isolated from ISS to date, the mecA gene product that is responsible for methicillin resistance was isolated in other Staphylococcus species aboard ISS suggesting a potential of MRSA through gene transfer. Using improved sample collection technologies, flight sampling for SWAB was initiated in August 2006 and should continue through spring of 2007. The focus of these flight samples is the collection of DNA for evaluation by Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (DGGE). Unlike other techniques, DGGE does not depend on any microbial growth on culture media allowing a more comprehensive assessment of the spacecraft interior. This study should provide insight into the true microbial ecology that is experienced by the crew during flight. This information will lead toward an accurate microbial risk assessment to help set flight requirements to protect the safety, health, and performance of the crew.

Ott, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Threat Assessment: Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle

This report provides results of a Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) risk assessment of the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle (MSR EEV). The assessment was performed using standard risk assessment methodology illustrated in Figure 1-1. Central to the process is the Bumper risk assessment code (Figure 1-2), which calculates the critical penetration risk based on geometry, shielding configurations and flight parameters. The assessment process begins by building a finite element model (FEM) of the spacecraft, which defines the size and shape of the spacecraft as well as the locations of the various shielding configurations. This model is built using the NX I-deas software package from Siemens PLM Software. The FEM is constructed using triangular and quadrilateral elements that define the outer shell of the spacecraft. Bumper-II uses the model file to determine the geometry of the spacecraft for the analysis. The next step of the process is to identify the ballistic limit characteristics for the various shield types. These ballistic limits define the critical size particle that will penetrate a shield at a given impact angle and impact velocity. When the finite element model is built, each individual element is assigned a property identifier (PID) to act as an index for its shielding properties. Using the ballistic limit equations (BLEs) built into the Bumper-II code, the shield characteristics are defined for each and every PID in the model. The final stage of the analysis is to determine the probability of no penetration (PNP) on the spacecraft. This is done using the micrometeoroid and orbital debris environment definitions that are built into the Bumper-II code. These engineering models take into account orbit inclination, altitude, attitude and analysis date in order to predict an impacting particle flux on the spacecraft. Using the geometry and shielding characteristics previously defined for the spacecraft and combining that information with the environment model calculations, the Bumper-II code calculates a probability of no penetration for the spacecraft.

Christiansen, Eric L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

As-Flown Shuttle Micro-Meteoroid Orbital Debris (MMOD) Assessment History

The final flight of the Space Shuttle program was completed on July 21st of 2011. The reusable nature of the Orbiter vehicles has provided NASA with a unique opportunity to inspect and sample spacecraft surfaces exposed to the MMOD environment in low Earth orbit. This paper will provide details of MMOD damages found on Orbiter surfaces after recent flights, as well as putting these damages in context by providing historical comparisons of recent damage to previous flights. The Bumper threat assessment computer code is used by NASA to determine spacecraft MMOD penetration risk. The tool was used before each mission to estimate pre-flight MMOD risk for the Shuttle Program Office using planned vehicles attitudes and exposure times. This paper summarizes the efforts of the authors to assess the expected number MMOD impacts of selected particles sizes of 52 shuttle missions ranging from STS-50 (1992) through STS-133 (2011) using as-flown attitude data. The missions encompass the Shuttle/Mir precursors to the International Space Station (ISS) as well as the ISS assembly flights. The paper includes a comparison of observed MMOD impact damage to the predicted number of impacts from Bumper code assessments. This data can be used to validate engineering models of the orbital debris and micrometeoroid environment, such NASA s ORDEM debris model and MEM meteoroid model.

Hyde, James L.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Radiation health research, 1986 - 1990

A collection of 225 abstracts of radiation research sponsored by NASA during the period 1986 through 1990 is reported. Each abstract was categorized within one of four discipline areas: physics, biology, risk assessment, and microgravity. Topic areas within each discipline were assigned as follows: Physics - atomic physics, nuclear science, space radiation, radiation transport and shielding, and instrumentation; Biology - molecular biology, cellular radiation biology, tissue, organs and organisms, radioprotectants, and plants; Risk assessment - radiation health and epidemiology, space flight radiation health physics, inter- and intraspecies extrapolation, and radiation limits and standards; and Microgravity. When applicable subareas were assigned for selected topic areas. Keywords and author indices are provided.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1993

Space radiation health research, 1991-1992

The present volume is a collection of 227 abstracts of radiation research sponsored by the NASA Space Radiation Health Program for the period 1991-1992. Each abstract has been categorized within one of three discipline areas: Physics, Biology and Risk Assessment. Topic areas within each discipline have been assigned as follows: Physics - Atomic Physics, Theory, Cosmic Ray and Astrophysics, Experimental, Environments and Environmental Models, Solar Activity and Prediction, Experiments, Radiation Transport and Shielding, Theory and Model Development, Experimental Studies, and Instrumentation. Biology - Biology, Molecular Biology, Cellular Radiation Biology, Transformation, Mutation, Lethality, Survival, DNA Damage and Repair, Tissue, Organs, and Organisms, In Vivo/In Vitro Systems, Carcinogenesis and Life Shortening, Cataractogenesis, Genetics/Developmental, Radioprotectants, Plants, and Other Effects. Risk Assessment - Risk Assessment, Radiation Health and Epidemiology, Space Flight Radiation Health Physics, Inter- and Intraspecies Extrapolation and Radiation Limits and Standards. Section I contains refereed journals; Section II contains reports/meetings. Keywords and author indices are provided. A collection of abstracts spanning the period 1986-1990 was previously issued as NASA Technical Memorandum 4270.

Jablin, M. H.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Evaluation of risk from space radiation with high-energy heavy ion beams

The most challenging radiation in space consists of fully ionized atomic elements with high energy for which only the few lowest energy ions can be stopped in shielding materials. The health risk from exposure to these ions and their secondary radiations generated in shield materials is poorly understood since there are few human data and a systematic study in relevant animal model systems has not been made. The accuracy of risk prediction is described as the major limiting factor in the management of space radiation risk. The expected impact of systematic studies is examined using the limited available biological data and models. Given the limitations of current predictions, models must be developed that are able to incorporate the required fundamental scientific data into accurate risk estimates. The important radiation components that can be provided for laboratory testing are identified. The use of ground-based accelerator beams to simulate space radiation is explained and quantitative scientific constraints on such facilities are derived. Three facilities, one each in the United States, in Germany and in Japan, currently have the partial capability to satisfy these constraints. A facility has been proposed using the Brookhaven National Laboratory Booster Synchrotron in the United States; in conjuction with other on-site accelerators, it will be able to provide the full range of heavy ion beams and energies required.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
NASA NTRS1989

Workshop summary. Biomedical and Space-Related Research with Heavy Ions at the BEVALAC

The authors provide an overview of papers presented at a workshop on Biomedical and Space-Related Research with Heavy Ions at the BEVALAC at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory. Goals of the meeting were to determine the critical experiments using heavy ions as probes in radiation physics, radiation chemistry, macromolecular and cellular biology, evolution science, basic neurophysiology, and medical therapies; how beam lines and facilities at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory can be improved for these experiments; and implications in priorities and funding for national policy. Workshop topics included physics and facilities, cellular and molecular biology, tissue radiobiology, and the future of heavy ion research.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Effect of Heroic Medical Care on Mission Medical Outcomes

Study Objective: A catastrophic medical event depletes medical resources. What happens to the rest of the mission’s medical outcomes after such an event? Use Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to see if we can find out. What is the Integrated Medical Model? PRA model using Monte Carlo methodology; Used to assess mission risk due to in-flight medical events; User defined Design Reference Missions (DRM) (crew, duration, EVA (Extra-Vehicular Activity), etc.); Considers outcomes for 100 medical conditions that have or may occur in-flight; 100,000 trials conducted per DRM.

Reyes, David P.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Physiology, medicine, long-duration space flight and the NSBRI

The hazards of long-duration space flight are real and unacceptable. In order for humans to participate effectively in long-duration orbital missions or continue the exploration of space, we must first secure the health of the astronaut and the success of such missions by assessing in detail the biomedical risks of space flight and developing countermeasures to these hazards. Acquiring the understanding necessary for building a sound foundation for countermeasure development requires an integrated approach to research in physiology and medicine and a level of cooperative action uncommon in the biomedical sciences. The research program of the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) was designed to accomplish just such an integrated research goal, ameliorating or eliminating the biomedical risks of long-duration space flight and enabling safe and productive exploration of space. The fruits of these labors are not limited to the space program. We can also use the gained understanding of the effects and mechanisms of the physiological changes engendered in space and the applied preventive and rehabilitative methods developed to combat these changes to the benefit of those on Earth who are facing similar physiological and psychological difficulties. This paper will discuss the innovative approach the NSBRI has taken to integrated research management and will present some of the successes of this approach. c2003 International Astronautical Federation. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA Discipline General Space Life Sciences↗
NASA NTRS2000

Support to X-33/Resusable Launch Vehicle Technology Program

The X-33 Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) Peer Review Team (PRT) was formed to assess the integrated X-33 vehicle GN&C system in order to identify any areas of disproportionate risk for initial flight. The eventual scope of the PRT assessment encompasses the GN&C algorithms, software, avionics, control effectors, applicable models, and testing. The initial (phase 1) focus of the PRT was on the GN&C algorithms and the Flight Control Actuation Subsystem (FCAS). The PRT held meetings during its phase 1 assessment at X-33 assembly facilities in Palmdale, California on May 17-18, 2000 and at Honeywell facilities in Tempe, Arizona on June 7, 2000. The purpose of these meetings was for the PRT members to get background briefings on the X-33 vehicle and for the PRT team to be briefed on the design basis and current status of the X-33 GN&C algorithms as well as the FCAS. The following material is covered in this PRT phase 1 final report. Some significant GN&C-related accomplishments by the X-33 development team are noted. Some topics are identified that were found during phase 1 to require fuller consideration when the PRT reconvenes in the future. Some new recommendations by the PRT to the X-33 program will likely result from a thorough assessment of these subjects. An initial list of recommendations from the PRT to the X-33 program is provided. These recommendations stem from topics that received adequate review by the PRT in phase 1. Significant technical observations by the PRT members as a result of the phase 1 meetings are detailed. (These are covered in an appendix.) There were many X-33 development team members who contributed to the technical information used by the PRT during the phase 1 assessment, who supported presentations to the PRT, and who helped to address the many questions posed by the PRT members at and after the phase 1 meetings. In all instances the interaction between the PRT and the X-33 development team members was cordial and very professional. The members of the PRT are grateful for the time and effort applied by all of these individuals and hope that the contents of this report will help to make the X-33 program a success.

Source record↗