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At least 91 records · Page 5

A Multi-scale, Geo-data Science Method for Assessing Unconventional Critical Mineral Resources

Critical minerals (CM) supply raw materials that constitute many of our essential infrastructure, defense, technology, and electrification needs. Currently, production and refinement of these materials from conventional sources is limited to few regions globally, which makes supply of these resources particularly venerable to disruption. To help overcome these risks and meet growing demand, attention has focused on identifying and developing resource potential of unconventional geologic CM sources, such as rare-earth elements in sedimentary systems. However, the unconventional nature of these types of sources means they are often poorly characterized and/or under-explored with respect to conventional counterparts. We present a regional case study for an Unconventional Rare-earth and Critical minerals (URC) assessment method for predicting and identifying REE resource potential and occurrence in unconventional systems in the Central Appalachian Basin (CAB). The method utilizes a geologic and geospatial data-driven approach, informed and guided by knowledge of REE enrichment processes, to systematically predict and identify areas of higher enrichment. Results from the test case indicate locations with potential for different types of coal-REE deposits, demonstrating its utility for reducing the area of exploration and identifying sites for more detailed investigation. Building upon the regional scale assessment capability, ongoing science-based enhancements to the method will allow for finer-scale (e.g., mine-scale) predictions required to support technical and economic assessments.

Creason, Christopher↗

Thermal conductivity of rutile germanium dioxide

Power electronics seek to improve power conversion of devices by utilizing materials with a wide bandgap, high carrier mobility, and high thermal conductivity. Due to its wide bandgap of 4.5 eV, b-Ga 2 O 3 has received much attention for high-voltage electronic device research. However, it suffers from inefficient thermal conduction that originates from its low-symmetry crystal structure. Rutile germanium oxide (r-GeO 2 ) has been identified as an alternative ultra-wide-bandgap (4.68 eV) semiconductor with predicted high electron mobility and ambipolar dopability; however, its thermal conductivity is unknown. Here, we characterize the thermal conductivity of r-GeO 2 as a function of temperature by first-principles calculations, experimental synthesis, and thermal characterization. The calculations predict an anisotropic phonon-limited thermal conductivity for r-GeO 2 of 37W m –1 K –1 along the a direction and 58W m –1 K –1 along the c direction at 300K where the phonon-limited thermal conductivity predominantly occurs via the acoustic modes. Experimentally, we measured the value of 51W m –1 K –1 at 300K for hot-pressed, polycrystalline r-GeO2 pellets. The measured value is close to our directionally averaged theoretical value, and the temperature dependence of ~1/T is also consistent with our theory prediction, indicating that thermal transport in our r-GeO 2 samples at room temperature and above is governed by phonon scattering. Furthermore, our results reveal that high-symmetry UWBG materials, such as r-GeO 2 , may be the key to efficient power electronics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A multiphysics coupling framework for exascale simulation of fracture evolution in subsurface energy applications

Predicting the evolution of fractured media is challenging due to coupled thermal, hydrological, chemical and mechanical processes that occur over a broad range of spatial scales, from the microscopic pore scale to field scale. We present a software framework and scientific workflow that couples the pore scale flow and reactive transport simulator Chombo-Crunch with the field scale geomechanics solver in GEOS to simulate fracture evolution in subsurface fluid-rock systems. This new multiphysics coupling capability comprises several novel features. An HDF5 data schema for coupling fracture positions between the two codes is employed and leverages the coarse resolution of the GEOS mechanics solver which limits the size of data coupled, and is, thus, not taxed by data resulting from the high resolution pore scale Chombo-Crunch solver. The coupling framework requires tracking of both before and after coarse nodal positions in GEOS as well as the resolved embedded boundary in Chombo-Crunch. We accomplished this by developing an approach to geometry generation that tracks the fracture interface between the two different methodologies. The GEOS quadrilateral mesh is converted to triangles which are organized into bins and an accessible tree structure; the nodes are then mapped to the Chombo representation using a continuous signed distance function that determines locations inside, on and outside of the fracture boundary. The GEOS positions are retained in memory on the Chombo-Crunch side of the coupling. The time stepping cadence for coupled multiphysics processes of flow, transport, reactions and mechanics is stable and demonstrates temporal reach to experimental time scales. The approach is validated by demonstration of 9 days of simulated time of a core flood experiment with fracture aperture evolution due to invasion of carbonated brine in wellbore-cement and sandstone. We also demonstrate usage of exascale computing resources by simulating a high resolution version of the validation problem on OLCF Frontier.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modeling the smoky troposphere of the southeast Atlantic: a comparison to ORACLES airborne observations from September of 2016

The southeast Atlantic is home to well-defined smoke outflow from Africa coinciding vertically with extensive marine boundary-layer cloud decks, both reaching their climatological maxima in spatial extent around September. A framework is put forth for evaluating the performance of a range of global and regional aerosol models against observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) airborne mission in September 2016. The sparse airborne observations are first aggregated into 2o grid boxes and into three vertical layers: the cloud-topped marine boundary layer (MBL), the layer from cloud top to 3 km, and the 3-6 km layer. Aerosol extensive properties simulated for the entire study region for all September suggest that the 2016 ORACLES observations are reasonably representative of the regional monthly average, with systematic deviations of 30% or less. All six models typically place the bottom of the smoke layer at lower altitudes than do the airborne lidar observations by 300-1400 m, whereas model aerosol top heights are within 0-500 m of the observations. All but one of the models that report carbonaceous aerosol masses underestimate the ratio of particulate extinction to the masses, a proxy for mass extinction efficiency, in 3-6 km. Notable findings on individual models include that WRF-CAM5 predicts the mass of black carbon and organic aerosols with minor (~10% or less) biases. GEOS-5 overestimates the carbonaceous particle masses in the MBL by a factor of 3-6. Extinction coefficients in the free troposphere (FT) and above-cloud aerosol optical depth (ACAOD) are 10-30% lower in WRF-CAM5, 30-50% lower in GEOS-5, 10-40% higher in GEOS-Chem, 10-20% higher in EAM-E3SM except for the practically unbiased 3-6 km extinction, and 20-70% lower in the Unified Model, than the airborne in situ, lidar and sunphotometer measurements. ALADIN-Climate also underestimates the ACAOD, by 30%. GEOS-5 and GEOS-Chem predict carbon monoxide in the MBL with small (10% or less) negative biases, despite their overestimates of carbonaceous aerosol masses. Overall, this study highlights a new approach to utilizing airborne aerosol measurements for model diagnosis.

Shinozuka, Yohei↗

On the differences in the vertical distribution of modeled aerosol optical depth over the southeastern Atlantic

Abstract. The southeastern Atlantic is home to an expansive smoke aerosol plume overlying a large cloud deck for approximately a third of the year. The aerosol plume is mainly attributed to the extensive biomass burning activities that occur in southern Africa. Current Earth system models (ESMs) reveal significant differences in their estimates of regional aerosol radiative effects over this region. Such large differences partially stem from uncertainties in the vertical distribution of aerosols in the troposphere. These uncertainties translate into different aerosol optical depths (AODs) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the free troposphere (FT). This study examines differences of AOD fraction in the FT and AOD differences among ESMs (WRF-CAM5, WRF-FINN, GEOS-Chem, EAM-E3SM, ALADIN, GEOS-FP, and MERRA-2) and aircraft-based measurements from the NASA ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) field campaign. Models frequently define the PBL as the well-mixed surface-based layer, but this definition misses the upper parts of decoupled PBLs, in which most low-level clouds occur. To account for the presence of decoupled boundary layers in the models, the height of maximum vertical gradient of specific humidity profiles from each model is used to define PBL heights. Results indicate that the monthly mean contribution of AOD in the FT to the total-column AOD ranges from 44 % to 74 % in September 2016 and from 54 % to 71 % in August 2017 within the region bounded by 25∘ S–0∘ N–S and 15∘ W–15∘ E (excluding land) among the ESMs. ALADIN and GEOS-Chem show similar aerosol plume patterns to a derived above-cloud aerosol product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) during September 2016, but none of the models show a similar above-cloud plume pattern to MODIS in August 2017. Using the second-generation High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL-2) to derive an aircraft-based constraint on the AOD and the fractional AOD, we found that WRF-CAM5 produces 40 % less AOD than those from the HSRL-2 measurements, but it performs well at separating AOD fraction between the FT and the PBL. AOD fractions in the FT for GEOS-Chem and EAM-E3SM are, respectively, 10 % and 15 % lower than the AOD fractions from the HSRL-2. Their similar mean AODs reflect a cancellation of high and low AOD biases. Compared with aircraft-based observations, GEOS-FP, MERRA-2, and ALADIN produce 24 %–36 % less AOD and tend to misplace more aerosols in the PBL. The models generally underestimate AODs for measured AODs that are above 0.8, indicating their limitations at reproducing high AODs. The differences in the absolute AOD, FT AOD, and the vertical apportioning of AOD in different models highlight the need to continue improving the accuracy of modeled AOD distributions. These differences affect the sign and magnitude of the net aerosol radiative forcing, especially when aerosols are in contact with clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Refractive Index and Abbe Number Tuning via 3D Printable Optical Quality Silica–Titania–Germania Glasses

The development of optical quality GeO 2 –TiO 2 –SiO 2 glasses compatible with direct ink writing (DIW) 3D printing is reported in this study. Colloidal GeO 2 and TiO 2 –SiO 2 core–shell feedstocks are prepared by a sol–gel method and converted to printable inks for DIW. Printed inks are subsequently densified to glass using heat treatment at temperatures up to 1100 °C in air. A series of print‐compatible glass compositions are prepared, yielding transparent glass with the highest refractive index n = 1.576. Herein, it is shown that more TiO 2 can be incorporated into the glass without haziness or scattering through the addition of GeO 2 . The mechanisms for this are discussed, and it is shown that crystallization persists in these glasses despite the lack of visible light scattering. Finally, the combination of both TiO 2 and GeO 2 into a ternary glass also is used to independently tune the dispersion properties of the glass, as demonstrated by measured refractive indices and Abbe numbers, which has potential implications for 3D‐printed optics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improving streamflow predictions across CONUS by integrating advanced machine learning models and diverse data

Accurate streamflow prediction is crucial to understand climate impacts on water resources and develop effective adaption strategies. A global long short-term memory (LSTM) model, using data from multiple basins, can enhance streamflow prediction, yet acquiring detailed basin attributes remains a challenge. To overcome this, we introduce the Geo-vision transformer (ViT)-LSTM model, a novel approach that enriches LSTM predictions by integrating basin attributes derived from remote sensing with a ViT architecture. Applied to 531 basins across the Contiguous United States, our method demonstrated superior prediction accuracy in both temporal and spatiotemporal extrapolation scenarios. Geo-ViT-LSTM marks a significant advancement in land surface modeling, providing a more comprehensive and effective tool for better understanding the environment responses to climate change.

Tayal, Kshitij↗

Simulation of African Easterly Waves in a Global Climate Model

Abstract African easterly waves (AEWs) exert significant influence on local and downstream high-impact weather including tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Atlantic. Accurate representation of AEWs in climate and weather prediction models therefore is necessary for skillful predictions. In this study, we examine simulated AEWs, including their evolution, vertical structure, and linkage to tropical cyclone genesis, in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric global climate model. Identified by the leading empirical orthogonal function mode of time-filtered precipitation, the observed westward propagating AEWs along the southern track over the Atlantic are largely captured in GEOS-5, but with a slower phase speed and significantly weaker amplitude downstream off the West Africa coast. The weak downstream development of AEWs in GEOS-5 is accompanied by much reduced TC genesis over the main development region. Further analyses suggest that the slow westward propagation and weaker AEW amplitude downstream can be ascribed to a weak African easterly jet, while overestimated negative (positive) meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients appear to the north (south) of 10°N in GEOS-5. The greatly overestimated positive meridional PV gradient to the south of 10°N is expected to generate strong horizontal stretching in the AEW wave pattern in the model, which hinders organization of convection and its feedback to sustain the AEW development. Persistent and vigorous AEW precipitation in the Guinea Highlands of the West Africa coast could also be responsible for reduced westward propagation of AEWs in the model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Assessing Suitable Geologic Carbon Storage Sites Across Utah

Utah has a wealth of potential geological reservoirs for carbon dioxide storage (CS) and a long history of geologic research resulting in an abundance of available subsurface data to evaluate CS potential. Reservoirs may include sandstone, carbonate, and basalt; these rock types are plentiful in Utah’s subsurface and the complex Phanerozoic history throughout the state requires evaluating each geologic region individually for promising reservoir-seal pairs for CO2 storage. Classifying Utah by geologic provinces (or “geo-regions”) allows for customized thinking about suitable CS reservoir and seal distribution, CO2 point sources, land use, and existing infrastructure. Preliminary results from this study highlight the geologic CS potential across 15 geo-regions. Four regions stand out as having high CS potential: the Uinta Basin, San Rafael Swell, Paradox Basin, and the southern Basin and Range Province. The Uinta Basin and San Rafael Swell geo-regions are well suited for CS and have several projects ongoing to evaluate Cretaceous Frontier and Naturita Formations, Jurassic Navajo Sandstone and Entrada Sandstone, and Permian Weber Sandstone reservoir units that lie beneath robust sealing units like the ~5000-ft-thick Mancos Shale and Carmel Formation. Reservoirs such as the Navajo and Weber Sandstones have been demonstrated to be suitable reservoirs through a long history of oil and gas exploration in Utah. New areas of interest include the southern Basin and Range in southwest Utah, where the Jurassic Navajo Sandstone is overlain by the sealing Carmel Formation at suitable depths (>3000 ft), and has good porosities based on outcrop analogue data. Just to the north (e.g., central Basin and Range), legacy wells and 2D seismic data show possible salt and subsurface basalt flows that may provide additional possible CS reservoirs and seals. This geo-region also has the advantage of being coupled with geothermal energy resources that may be used to power burgeoning direct air capture technologies. In the Paradox Basin of southeastern Utah, the Leadville Limestone is a potential storage reservoir beneath the thick (4000–5000 ft), salt-bearing Pennsylvanian Paradox Formation. Although the northern and western parts of Utah offer CS potential, these areas typically contain less infrastructure and subsurface penetrations, creating geologic uncertainty associated with subsurface seals and reservoirs due to a lack of data. Overall, this statewide assessment and ranking is the first step to aid in evaluating CS potential across Utah and provides a foundation for future research in the most favorable locations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorologically relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks to months is an area of active research and development. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1–3-month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981–2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2 m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to the similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from an anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system's ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regional-scale, sector-specific evaluation of global CO2 inversion models using aircraft data from the ACT-America project

We use vertical profiles of airborne measurements of CO2 from frontal cases during the summer 2016 Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America (ACT-America) campaign to evaluate the skill of a set of ten global CO2 inversion models participating in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory – 2 (OCO-2) Model Intercomparison Project (MIP). Model errors and biases (model minus observation) were categorized by region (Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and South), frontal sector (warm or cold), and transport model (predominantly Tracer Model 5 (TM5) and Goddard Earth Observing System – Chemistry (GEOS-Chem)). Overall, the inversions reproduce the general structures of the observed vertical profiles and the enhanced / depleted low-level CO2 in warm / cold sectors, but tend to underestimate the magnitude of the sector difference in each region. In the Midwest and South warm sectors, inversion biases were about 1 ppm above 1500 m AGL, though model spread (quantified by interquartile range) was often even smaller; below 1500 m AGL, model biases were negative and about -2 ppm near the surface. For the Midwest and South cold sectors, models had +2-3 ppm biases below 1500 m AGL, but with comparable model spread. Uniquely, in the Mid-Atlantic there was a consistent difference between TM5 and GEOS-Chem mole fractions for both sectors up to 3000 m AGL (TM5 lower by 2 ppm), on the order of the observation-relative biases. In the MidAtlantic TM5 inversions had negative biases in warm sectors, while GEOS-Chem inversions had positive biases in cold sectors. Possible reasons for the regional variability are discussed.

Gaudet, Brian J.↗

Ab initio prediction of an order-disorder transition in Mg 2 Ge O 4 : Implication for the nature of super-Earth's mantles

Here we present an ab initio prediction of an order-disorder transition (ODT) from a I¯42d-type to Th 3 P 4 -type phase in the cation sublattices of Mg 2 GeO 4 , a post-post-perovskite phase. This uncommon type of prediction is achieved by carrying out a high-throughput sampling of atomic configurations in a 56-atom supercell followed by a Boltzmann ensemble statistics calculation. Mg 2 GeO 4 is a low-pressure analog of I¯42d-type Mg 2 SiO 4 , a predicted major planet-forming phase of super-Earths' mantles. Therefore, a similar ODT is anticipated in I¯42d-type Mg 2 SiO 4 as well, which should impact the internal structure and dynamics of these planets. Furthermore, the prediction of this Th 3 P 4 -type phase in Mg 2 GeO 4 further enhances the relationship between the crystal structures of Earth/planet-forming silicates and oxides at extreme pressures and those of rare-earth sesquisulfides at low pressures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Assessing complexity and dynamics in epidemics: geographical barriers and facilitators of foot-and-mouth disease dissemination

Introduction: Physical and non-physical processes that occur in nature may influence biological processes, such as dissemination of infectious diseases. However, such processes may be hard to detect when they are complex systems. Because complexity is a dynamic and non-linear interaction among numerous elements and structural levels in which specific effects are not necessarily linked to any one specific element, cause-effect connections are rarely or poorly observed. Methods: To test this hypothesis, the complex and dynamic properties of geo-biological data were explored with high-resolution epidemiological data collected in the 2001 Uruguayan foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epizootic that mainly affected cattle. County-level data on cases, farm density, road density, river density, and the ratio of road (or river) length/county perimeter were analyzed with an open-ended procedure that identified geographical clustering in the first 11 epidemic weeks. Two questions were asked: (i) do geo-referenced epidemiologic data display complex properties? and (ii) can such properties facilitate or prevent disease dissemination? Results: Emergent patterns were detected when complex data structures were analyzed, which were not observed when variables were assessed individually. Complex properties–including data circularity–were demonstrated. The emergent patterns helped identify 11 counties as ‘disseminators’ or ‘facilitators’ (F) and 264 counties as ‘barriers’ (B) of epidemic spread. In the early epidemic phase, F and B counties differed in terms of road density and FMD case density. Focusing on non-biological, geographical data, a second analysis indicated that complex relationships may identify B-like counties even before epidemics occur. Discussion: Geographical barriers and/or promoters of disease dispersal may precede the introduction of emerging pathogens. If corroborated, the analysis of geo-referenced complexity may support anticipatory epidemiological policies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Vertical profiles of light absorption and scattering associated with black carbon particle fractions in the springtime Arctic above 79° N

Despite the potential importance of black carbon (BC) for radiative forcing of the Arctic atmosphere, vertically resolved measurements of the particle light scattering coefficient (σ sp ) and light absorption coefficient (σ ap ) in the springtime Arctic atmosphere are infrequent, especially measurements at latitudes at or above 80° N. Here, relationships among vertically distributed aerosol optical properties (σap, σsp and single scattering albedo or SSA), particle microphysics and particle chemistry are examined for a region of the Canadian archipelago between 79.9 and 83.4° N from near the surface to 50 hPa. Airborne data collected during April 2015 are combined with ground-based observations from the observatory at Alert, Nunavut and simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, GEOS-Chem, coupled with the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) model (collectively GEOS-Chem–TOMAS; Kodros et al., 2018) to further our knowledge of the effects of BC on light absorption in the Arctic troposphere. The results are constrained for σsp less than 15 Mm -1 , which represent 98% of the observed σsp, because the single scattering albedo (SSA) has a tendency to be lower at lower σsp, resulting in a larger relative contribution to Arctic warming. At 18.4 m 2 g -1 , the average BC mass absorption coefficient (MAC) from the combined airborne and Alert observations is substantially higher than the two averaged modelled MAC values (13.6 and 9.1 m2 g -1 ) for two different internal mixing assumptions, the latter of which is based on previous observations. The higher observed MAC value may be explained by an underestimation of BC, the presence of small amounts of dust and/or possible differences in BC microphysics and morphologies between the observations and model. In comparing the observations and simulations, we present σap and SSA, as measured, and σ ap 2 and the corresponding SSA to encompass the lower modelled MAC that is more consistent with accepted MAC values. Median values of the measured σap, rBC and the organic component of particles all increase by a factor of 1.8±0.1, going from near-surface to 750 hPa, and values higher than the surface persist to 600 hPa. Modelled BC, organics and σap agree with the near-surface measurements but do not reproduce the higher values observed between 900 and 600 hPa. The differences between modelled and observed optical properties follow the same trend as the differences between the modelled and observed concentrations of the carbonaceous components (black and organic). Model-observation discrepancies may be mostly due to the modelled ejection of biomass burning particles only into the boundary layer at the sources. For the assumption of the observed MAC value, the SSA range between 0.88 and 0.94, which is significantly lower than other recent estimates for the Arctic, in part reflecting the constraint of σsp<15 Mm -1 . The large uncertainties in measuring optical properties and BC, and the large differences between measured and modelled values here and in the literature, argue for improved measurements of BC and light absorption by BC and more vertical profiles of aerosol chemistry, microphysics and other optical properties in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An evaluation of global organic aerosol schemes using airborne observations

Chemical transport models have historically struggled to accurately simulate the magnitude and variability of observed organic aerosol (OA), with previous studies demonstrating that models significantly underestimate observed concentrations in the troposphere. In this study, we explore two different model OA schemes within the standard GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and evaluate the simulations against a suite of 15 globally distributed airborne campaigns from 2008 to 2017, primarily in the spring and summer seasons. These include the ATom, KORUS-AQ, GoAmazon,FRAPPE, SEAC4RS, SENEX, DC3, CalNex, OP3, EUCAARI, ARCTAS and ARCPAC campaigns and provide broad coverage over a diverse set of atmospheric composition regimes – anthropogenic, biogenic, pyrogenic and remote. The schemes include significant differences in their treatment of the primary and secondary components of OA – a “simple scheme” that models primary OA (POA) as non-volatile and takes a fixed-yield approach to secondary OA (SOA) formation and a “complex scheme” that simulates POA as semi-volatile and uses a more sophisticated volatility basis set approach for non-isoprene SOA, with an explicit aqueous uptake mechanism to model isoprene SOA. Despite these substantial differences, both the simple and complex schemes perform comparably across the aggregate dataset in their ability to capture the observed variability (with an R2 of 0.41 and 0.44, respectively). The simple scheme displays greater skill in minimizing the overall model bias (with a normalized mean bias of 0.04 compared to 0.30 for the complex scheme). Across both schemes, the model skill in reproducing observed OA is superior to previous model evaluations and approaches the fidelity of the sulfate simulation within the GEOS-Chem model. However,there are significant differences in model performance across different chemical source regimes, classified here into seven categories.Higher-resolution nested regional simulations indicate that model resolution is an important factor in capturing variability in highly localized campaigns, while also demonstrating the importance of well-constrained emissions inventories and local meteorology, particularly over Asia. Our analysis suggests that a semi-volatile treatment of POA is superior to anon-volatile treatment. It is also likely that the complex scheme parameterization overestimates biogenic SOA at the global scale. While this study identifies factors within the SOA schemes that likely contribute to OA model bias (such as a strong dependency of the bias in the complex scheme on relative humidity and sulfate concentrations), comparisons with the skill of the sulfate aerosol scheme in GEOS-Chem indicate the importance of other drivers of bias, such as emissions, transport and deposition, that are exogenous to the OA chemical scheme.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗