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The Lovasz bound and some generalizations

The zero error capacity of a discrete memoryless channel is defined as the largest rate at which information can be transmitted over the channel with zero error probability. One channel with five inputs and outputs whose zero capacity remained unsolved until very recently is considered. An extremely powerful and general technique phased in terms of graph theory, for studying combinatorial packing problems is presented. In particular, Delsarte's linear programming bound for cliques in association schemes appears as a special case of the Lovasz bound.

Mceliece, R. J.

Mitigating the Impacts of Measurement Error in the Quesst Mission Community Noise Study

Beginning in 2025, the NASA Quesst mission will conduct a series of community response tests involving flyovers of the X-59 aircraft at select localities across the United States. Several waves of a longitudinal survey will be administered over approximately one month of testing in order to capture perceptual responses to low-amplitude sonic booms, or “sonic thumps”. Simultaneously, noise exposure levels will be estimated by fusing model-based predictions with measurements taken from a sparse network of monitors in the region. As one of the aims of the study is to produce a dose-response curve, a regression model relating perceptual response to noise exposure levels, it is important to acknowledge the potential attenuation bias that results from measurement error in the estimated noise exposure levels. In this presentation we review and compare several methods for dealing with measurement error in generalized linear mixed models. The methods are demonstrated on simulated data and real data collected during past NASA risk reduction studies.

measurement error

Optimal state-rate feedback explicit model-following

The development of optimal explicit model-following control laws which include the use of state-rate signals is described. By formulating the control problem to consider both state and state-rate errors, some generalization of previous results is obtained. For special cases in which 'perfect' model-following is possible, the form of the resulting control law is particularly simple and leads to clear understanding of the direct influences of the weighting matrices used in the problem formulation. In addition the use of state-rate feedback permits the solution to be expressed in terms of gains on state an state-rate errors between model and controlled element, thereby obviating any requirement that perturbation signals be used for feedback.

Buethe, S.

Stratospheric wind errors, initial states and forecast skill in the GLAS general circulation model

Relations between stratospheric wind errors, initial states and 500 mb skill are investigated using the GLAS general circulation model initialized with FGGE data. Erroneous stratospheric winds are seen in all current general circulation models, appearing also as weak shear above the subtropical jet and as cold polar stratospheres. In this study it is shown that the more anticyclonic large-scale flows are correlated with large forecast stratospheric winds. In addition, it is found that for North America the resulting errors are correlated with initial state jet stream accelerations while for East Asia the forecast winds are correlated with initial state jet strength. Using 500 mb skill scores over Europe at day 5 to measure forecast performance, it is found that both poor forecast skill and excessive stratospheric winds are correlated with more anticyclonic large-scale flows over North America. It is hypothesized that the resulting erroneous kinetic energy contributes to the poor forecast skill, and that the problem is caused by a failure in the modeling of the stratospheric energy cycle in current general circulation models independent of vertical resolution.

Tenenbaum, J.

Solar Cell Short Circuit Current Errors and Uncertainties During High Altitude Calibrations

High altitude balloon based facilities can make solar cell calibration measurements above 99.5% of the atmosphere to use for adjusting laboratory solar simulators. While close to on-orbit illumination, the small attenuation to the spectra may result in under measurements of solar cell parameters. Variations of stratospheric weather, may produce flight-to-flight measurement variations. To support the NSCAP effort, this work quantifies some of the effects on solar cell short circuit current (Isc) measurements on triple junction sub-cells. This work looks at several types of high altitude methods, direct high altitude meas urements near 120 kft, and lower stratospheric Langley plots from aircraft. It also looks at Langley extrapolation from altitudes above most of the ozone, for potential small balloon payloads. A convolution of the sub-cell spectral response with the standard solar spectrum modified by several absorption processes is used to determine the relative change from AMO, lscllsc(AMO). Rayleigh scattering, molecular scatterin g from uniformly mixed gases, Ozone, and water vapor, are included in this analysis. A range of atmosph eric pressures are examined, from 0. 05 to 0.25 Atm to cover the range of atmospheric altitudes where solar cell calibrations a reperformed. Generally these errors and uncertainties are less than 0.2%

Snyder, David D.

Early calendar life and health prediction of silicon batteries via machine learning with uncertainty quantification

Lithium-ion batteries with silicon anodes promise high energy density but are limited by calendar lifetime. Reducing the long iteration time to obtain experimental results requires predicting calendar lifetime early in a cell's life. In this study, we demonstrate that lightweight machine learning models with feature engineering can provide calendar lifetime estimates from early electrochemical signals. After 1 month of electrochemical aging, the best models achieve 10% error in calendar-life prediction and can separate "bad" from "good" lifetime cells with a mean F1 score of 0.857. As battery systems exhibit inherent variability, four methods for uncertainty quantification are compared, and confidence intervals are demonstrated with an uncertainty of +-3.6 months in lifetime prediction. A feature importance analysis indicates that early patterns in voltage decay are the strongest indicators of calendar lifetime. Finally, this modeling approach has high error when generalizing to new electrode chemistries or testing conditions but with appropriately low confidence.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

A model of the vertebrate central command system.

S-RETIC vertebrate command model, discussing computer simulation of reticular formation Golgi anatomy capable of habituation, conditioning, extinction, generalization and error discrimination

Blum, J.

The effects of random accelerations on estimation accuracy with applications to the Mariner 1969 relativity experiment

A simple point of view is presented for establishing the relationship between a general modeling error and estimation accuracy. Tentative models are given for the random, nongravitational forces thought likely to affect the Mariner 6 and 7 spacecraft. The navigation data from these spacecraft were used to determine the relativity parameter Gamma. The effect that random accelerations have on the classical least squares filter, which assumes the accelerations do not exist, is calculated, and it is demonstrated that their presence seriously affects the estimates, particularly when an extended data arc is employed. Finally, some preliminary exploration using sequential-type filters, which attempt to model and thus ameliorate the effects of these same accelerations, is reported.

Curkendall, D. W.

An algorithm for control system design via parameter optimization

An algorithm for design via parameter optimization has been developed for linear-time-invariant control systems based on the model reference adaptive control concept. A cost functional is defined to evaluate the system response relative to nominal, which involves in general the error between the system and nominal response, its derivatives and the control signals. A program for the practical implementation of this algorithm has been developed, with the computational scheme for the evaluation of the performance index based on Lyapunov's theorem for stability of linear invariant systems.

Sinha, P. K.

Advanced communication system time domain modeling techniques ASYSTD software description. Volume 2: Program support documentation

The theoretical basis for the ASYSTD program is discussed in detail. In addition, the extensive bibliography given in this document illustrates some of the extensive work accomplished in the area of time domain simulation. Additions have been in the areas of modeling and language program enhancements, orthogonal transform modeling, error analysis, general filter models, BER measurements, etc. Several models have been developed which utilize the COMSAT generated orthogonal transform algorithms.

Source record

On optimal modeling of systems.

A procedure for modeling a linear system by an optimal finite-dimensional approximation is developed on the basis of Sard's (1967) generalized spline. Error bounds are given, and the application of the procedure is illustrated by two presented examples. The procedure may be employed, not only in the modeling of conventional lumped-parameter and distributed-parameter continuous dynamical systems, but also in mathematical operations such as those involved in pattern recognition and picture enhancement problems.

De Figueiredo, R. J. P.

Laser Doppler systems in pollution monitoring

The paper reports on a program undertaken to determine the feasibility of using a laser Doppler velocimeter (LDV) to measure smoke-stack gas exit velocity, particulate concentration, and mass flow. Measurements made with a CO2 laser Doppler radar system at a coal-burning power plant are compared with in-stack measurements made by a pitot tube. The operational principles of a LDV are briefly described along with the system employed in the present study. Data discussed include typical Doppler spectra from smoke-stack effluents at various laser elevation angles, the measured velocity profile across the stack exit, and the LDV-measured exit velocity as a function of the exit velocity measured by the in-stack instrument. The in-stack velocity is found to be about 14% higher than the LDV velocity, but this discrepancy is regarded as a systematic error. In general, linear relationships are observed between the laser data, the exit velocity, and the particulate concentration. It is concluded that an LDV has the capability of determining both the mass concentration and the mass flow from a power-plant smoke stack.

Miller, C. R.

Vector space methods of photometric analysis - Applications to O stars and interstellar reddening

A multivariate vector-space formulation of photometry is developed which accounts for error propagation. An analysis of uvby and H-beta photometry of O stars is presented, with attention given to observational errors, reddening, general uvby photometry, early stars, and models of O stars. The number of observable parameters in O-star continua is investigated, the way these quantities compare with model-atmosphere predictions is considered, and an interstellar reddening law is derived. It is suggested that photospheric expansion affects the formation of the continuum in at least some O stars.

Massa, D.

Ruggedized minicomputer hardware and software topics, 1981: Proceedings of the 4th ROLM MIL-SPEC Computer User's Group Conference

Presentations of a conference on the use of ruggedized minicomputers are summarized. The following topics are discussed: (1) the role of minicomputers in the development and/or certification of commercial or military airplanes in both the United States and Europe; (2) generalized software error detection techniques; (3) real time software development tools; (4) a redundancy management research tool for aircraft navigation/flight control sensors; (5) extended memory management techniques using a high order language; and (6) some comments on establishing a system maintenance scheme. Copies of presentation slides are also included.

Source record

Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment. III - Semi-prognostic test of the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization

The verification of the Arakawa and Schubert (1974) cumulus parameterization is continued using a semiprognostic approach. Observed data from Phase III of GATE are used to provide estimates of the large-scale forcing of a cumulus ensemble at each observation time. Instantaneous values of the precipitation and the warming and drying due to cumulus convection are calculated using the parameterization. The results show that the calculated precipitation agrees very well with estimates from the observed large-scale moisture budget and from radar observations. The calculated vertical profiles of cumulus warming and drying also are quite similar to the observed. It is shown that the closure assumption adopted in the parameterization (the cloud-work function quasi-equilibrium) results in errors of generally less than 10% in the calculated precipitation. The sensitivity of the parameterization to some assumptions of the cloud ensemble model and the solution method for the cloud-base mass flux is investigated.

Lord, S. J.

Automatic braking system modification for the Advanced Transport Operating Systems (ATOPS) Transportation Systems Research Vehicle (TSRV)

Modifications were designed for the B-737-100 Research Aircraft autobrake system hardware of the Advanced Transport Operating Systems (ATOPS) Program at Langley Research Center. These modifications will allow the on-board flight control computer to control the aircraft deceleration after landing to a continuously variable level for the purpose of executing automatic high speed turn-offs from the runway. A bread board version of the proposed modifications was built and tested in simulated stopping conditions. Test results, for various aircraft weights, turnoff speed, winds, and runway conditions show that the turnoff speeds are achieved generally with errors less than 1 ft/sec.

Coogan, J. J.

A general model for attitude determination error analysis

An overview is given of a comprehensive approach to filter and dynamics modeling for attitude determination error analysis. The models presented include both batch least-squares and sequential attitude estimation processes for both spin-stabilized and three-axis stabilized spacecraft. The discussion includes a brief description of a dynamics model of strapdown gyros, but it does not cover other sensor models. Model parameters can be chosen to be solve-for parameters, which are assumed to be estimated as part of the determination process, or consider parameters, which are assumed to have errors but not to be estimated. The only restriction on this choice is that the time evolution of the consider parameters must not depend on any of the solve-for parameters. The result of an error analysis is an indication of the contributions of the various error sources to the uncertainties in the determination of the spacecraft solve-for parameters. The model presented gives the uncertainty due to errors in the a priori estimates of the solve-for parameters, the uncertainty due to measurement noise, the uncertainty due to dynamic noise (also known as process noise or measurement noise), the uncertainty due to the consider parameters, and the overall uncertainty due to all these sources of error.

Markley, F. Landis