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At least 91 records · Page 5

Appalachian Basin Play Fairway Analysis Analyses and Results

*This submission updates a 2015 submission for the utilization analysis (https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/623)* The files document the analysis of utilization potential in support of Phase 1 Low Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin. This 2016 submission includes data pertinent to the methods and results of an analysis of the Surface Levelized Cost of Heat (SLCOH) for US Census Bureau 'Places' within the study area. The SLCOHis was calculated using a modification of a program called GEOPHIRES, available at http://koenraadbeckers.net/geophires/index.php. In addition to calculating SLCOH, this task also identified many industrial sites that may be prospects for use of a geothermal district heating system, based on their size and industry, rather than on the SLCOH. An industry sorted listing and maps of the sites have been plotted as a layer onto different iterations of maps combining the three geologic risk factors (Thermal Quality, Natural Reservoir Quality, and Risk of Seismicity). In addition, a shapefile of the industrial sites is also included with 7 associated files. Supporting files are also supplied.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Patterns of indoor radon concentrations, radon-hazard potential, and radon testing on a small geographic scale in Utah

Currently, there are no publicly-available estimates of indoor radon concentration at scales smaller than the county. Radon-hazard potential soil maps that reflect underlying geologic factors can be created at small geographic scale and linked to residential and census data. We determined the association between residential radon tests and high radon-hazard potential soil at the residential and block group levels using a large Utah-based dataset. We also identified characteristics of block groups with limited tests in the dataset.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Washington Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis Data From Potential Field Studies

A recent study which adapts play fairway analysis (PFA) methodology to assess geothermal potential was conducted at three locations (Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens seismic zone, and Wind River valley) along the Washington Cascade Range (Forson et al. 2017). Potential field (gravity and magnetic) methods which can detect subsurface contrasts in physical properties, provides a means for mapping and modeling subsurface geology and structure. As part of the WA-Cascade PFA project, we performed potential field studies by collecting high-resolution gravity and ground-magnetic data, and rock property measurements to (1) identify and constrain fault geometries (2) constrain subsurface lithologic distribution (3) study fault interactions (4) identify areas favorable to hydrothermal flow, and ultimately (5) guide future geothermal exploration at each location.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Middle Kittanning Coal Waste and Underclay as an Alternative Rare Earth Elements Feedstock

In order to secure domestic sources of rare earth elements (REE) from coal related materials, there must be validation of representative feedstocks. Actively producing coal mines that target the Middle Kittanning coal seam in the Appalachian Basin were compiled. These mines were cross-referenced with publicly available geochemical data such as the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Mapping Resources Initiative geochemical data along with samples evaluated and characterized by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). This work evaluated the extent of elevated Middle Kittanning underclay concentrations of REE in comparison to other underclay formations. Therefore, further up-scaling of research associated with the separation and extraction of REE and other critical minerals can be beneficial to utilizing domestic REE supplies for various technology sectors, to include energy, biomedical, and defense. Numerous current active mines targeting the Middle Kittanning coal seam represent a geographically significant opportunity for shared feedstocks and collaborations to further understand the role of Middle Kittanning underclay as a critical mineral feedstock.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

lllinois Storage Corridor CarbonSAFE Phase III: Pre-drilling Site Assessment: Prairie State Generating Company

The Illinois Storage Corridor project will drill a stratigraphic test well as part of the Illinois Storage Corridor CarbonSAFE Phase 3 project near the Prairie State Generating Company coal-fired power plant near Marissa, Illinois. The pre-drilling site evaluation has considered the primary target reservoirs, the Potosi Dolomite and St. Peter Sandstone, and primary seal, the Maquoketa Group. Data to be collected from the well include core, fluid samples, in situ well tests, geophysical logs intended to provide information on lithologic, geomechanical, and geophysical characteristics to determine the feasibility for the geologic sequestration of 50 million metric tons or more of injected carbon dioxide. The planned drilling site has been evaluated using available subsurface geologic data and analyses from the Illinois Basin. These data provide lithologic and structural information, shallow groundwater resource distribution, location of known nearby wellbores, and regional drilling characteristics. The data were used to generate geologic structure and isopach maps for the target reservoir and caprock strata and for prognosing the tops of major lithologic units to aid drilling and coring procedures. The regional analyses indicate that no known structural features are expected to negatively impact the target storage reservoir or caprock. No protected and sensitive areas, groundwater resources, or existing resource development are expected to be impacted by the proposed well drilling activities. The well is planned to be drilled to a total depth of approximately 5,600 feet (1,707 m) and terminate in the Precambrian. Cores (up to 5 intervals) will be collected from the Maquoketa Group, confining units above the St. Peter Sandstone, St. Peter Sandstone, confining units of the Potosi Dolomite and the Potosi Dolomite. Water samples will be attempted to be collected from the St. Peter Sandstone and Potosi Dolomite. Potential impact on drilling progress is a lost circulation zone in the Potosi Dolomite, which has been demonstrated to have intermittent cavernous porosity from karstification elsewhere in the Illinois Basin. This document also presents a preliminary coring and sampling program, proposed logging suite, and well testing program, all of which will be reviewed during drilling.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

The Integration and Mapping of an Open-Source National Well Resource to Inform Geologic Carbon Storage Site Selection and Risk Prevention: The CO2-Locate Database

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) offers a way to capture and permanently store CO₂ from fossil fuel operations in underground geologic structures, aiding in the transition to a carbon-neutral energy economy. However, CO₂ injection sites can experience gas leakage through existing wells that penetrate storage reservoirs, making knowledge of well locations and characteristics crucial for permitting, infrastructure reusability, and risk assessment in GCS. Currently, public wellbore data from state, federal, and tribal entities are inconsistent and fragmented, with gaps and redundancies. To address this, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) developed CO2-Locate, an open-source, geospatial database and online application. CO2-Locate integrates over 50 data sources from federal, state, and tribal entities, creating a standardized national well database. Funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the database is publicly available through the Energy Data eXchange (EDX) and viewable via the CO2-Locate web mapping application. This tool allows users to query, filter, and visualize well data to support GCS planning, permitting, and risk assessments. This presentation covers the methods used to create CO2-Locate, including data acquisition, processing, attribute mapping, and integration, much of which is automated for future updates. The web mapping application and its role in GCS site selection will also be discussed.

Tetteh, Daniel A.↗

A risk map methodology to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of leakage into groundwater from Geologic Carbon Storage

The risks to potable aquifers due to brine leakage through plugged and abandoned (P&A) wells is highly uncertain and a potentially significant contributor to the risk profile in Geologic Carbon Storage (GCS). This uncertainty stems from the unknown location of wells and the large variance of P&A wellbore permeability, making the spatial assessment of P&A brine leakage risk challenging. A new methodology is presented to generate “risk maps”, or spatial distributions of brine leakage risk to groundwater resources as defined with no-impact or Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) thresholds. The methodology utilizes probability theory, thereby avoiding the use of computationally expensive Monte Carlo simulations while maintaining flexibility in modeling techniques. These maps provide quantitative probabilities of risk as a function of time to inform site selection and monitoring during and post-injection, conducive to the US EPA's permitting of class-VI wells and the so-called “area of review”, AoR. As a demonstration of the methodology, a numerical model of a hypothetical fully-coupled system spanning from the injection reservoir to the USDW is used to assess the evolution of brine leakage through P&A wells. Risk maps of CO 2 leakage can also be generated with this methodology for a comprehensive assessment of GCS leakage risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Spectral Fidelity of Earth's Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems

The Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) investigation will create global maps of spectral surface reflectance and emissivity at a cadence of 16 days or better, with coverage to address global questions about Earth's geology, cryosphere and ecosystems. The revolutionary potential poses a commensurate challenge: creating contiguous maps free from regional biases induced by atmosphere, observation geometry, or inversion error. This will require an accurate calibration with precise knowledge of each channel's spectral response. In this work, we quantify the impact of spectral calibration on SBG's aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem objectives. We find that contemporary algorithms for ecosystem trait retrieval demand more accurate spectral calibration than historical missions. Errors due to drift or spatial nonuniformity in the wavelength calibration that have previously been considered acceptable can cause systematic errors larger than the instrument noise and of the same order as the variability SBG aims to measure. Moreover, their impact on atmospheric correction can induce climate-dependent systematic errors that thwart comparisons between ecosystems. These results underscore the importance of spectral response accuracy in SBG mission design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forecast of Wildfire Potential Across California USA Using a Transformer

Wildfires are a major issue facing the United States, a matter further exacerbated by an ever-changing climate. In California alone, wildfires are responsible for billions of dollars in damages and take lives each year. Accurately predicting fire danger conditions allows preparation awareness before wildfires start. Transformers are a class of deep learning models designed to identify patterns in sequential datasets. In recent years, transformers have gained popularity through their impressive performance in natural language processing and other applications of signal recognition. This analysis demonstrates the ability of a transformer with a residual connection to forecast fire danger potential over the state of California. Wildland fire potential index (WFPI) maps collected from the US Geological Survey database from January 1st 2020 to December 31st 2023 were used to tune, train and evaluate the transformer. Meteorological inputs (provided by Daymet daily weather and climatological summaries), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (calculated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), and outputs from the Scott and Burgman fire behavior fuel models (to characterize maps of fuel types), were used as inputs. Our results show that a transformer can effectively emulate the US Forest Service modeled WFPI maps of California USA for four week long forecasts over the month of July, 2023, with correlations ranging from 0.85 – 0.98.

Limber, Russell [ORNL]↗

Locating Undocumented Wells Using Historical Oil and Gas Exploration Maps: A Case Study in Osage County, Oklahoma

Undocumented oil and gas wells lack reliable information about their locations and characteristics, making them difficult to identify. These wells can result in unanticipated delays and costs in the development of nearby surface and subsurface resources, and, if improperly plugged, can cause contamination. This study leverages historical petroleum exploration maps to locate such wells, focusing on Osage County, Oklahoma. Two sets of early 20th century oil and gas exploration maps by the United States Geological Survey were georeferenced and analyzed using a computer vision model to detect well symbols. The locations of detected wells were compared to the location of known wells in the database from the Bureau of Indian Affairs Osage Agency to identify potential undocumented wells. The analysis yielded over 500 potential undocumented wells, with dry holes constituting the largest fraction. Field verification confirmed the presence of some undocumented wells. Comparison with prior work revealed limited overlap, underscoring the complementary value of historical oil and gas maps for locating undocumented wells. This approach demonstrates the utility of integrating historical cartographic resources with modern geospatial and machine learning techniques to improve the identification and management of undocumented wells.

Energy - Petroleum↗

University of Illinois Campus Deep Direct-Use Feasibility Study - Bedrock Geology ArcGIS Layers

Bedrock Geology of Champaign County, Illinois, map layers (shapefiles). Layers included: 1) Champaign County bedrock units. 2) Champaign County bedrock surface contours. Contour interval of 25 feet. 3) Colchester coal surface contours. Contour interval of 50 feet. 4) Kimmswick Limestone top contours, in the Mahomet dome area. Contour interval of 20 feet. 5) New Albany shale base contour. Contour interval of 100 feet.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Integration of Full Tensor Gravity and Z-Axis Tipper Electromagnetic Passive Low Frequency EM Instruments for Simultaneous Data Acquisition - Final Technical Report

Ground gravity is a common and useful tool for geothermal exploration. Gravity surveys map density changes in the subsurface that may be caused by tectonic deformation such as faulting, fracturing, plutonism, volcanism, hydrothermal alteration, etc. Full Tensor Gravity Gradient (FTG) data has been used for over a decade in both petroleum and mining exploration to map changes in density associated with geologic structure. Measuring the gravity gradient, rather than the gravity field, provides significantly higher resolution data. Modeling studies have shown FTG data to be a viable tool for geothermal exploration, but no FTG data had been acquired for geothermal applications to date. Electromagnetic methods have been used for geothermal exploration for some time. The Z-Axis Tipper Electromagnetic (ZTEM) was a newer technology that had found success in mapping deep conductivity changes for mining applications. ZTEM had also been used in limited tests for geothermal exploration. This newer technology provided the ability to cost effectively map large areas whilst detailing the electrical properties of the geological structures at depths. The ZTEM is passive and it uses naturally occurring audio frequency magnetic (AFMAG) signals as the electromagnetic triggering source. These geophysical methods were to be tested over a known geothermal site to determine whether or not the data provided the information required for accurately interpreting the subsurface geologic structure associated with a geothermal deposit. After successful acquisition and analysis of the known source area, an additional survey of a “greenfield” area was to be completed. The final step was to develop a combined interpretation model and determine if the combination produced a higher confident geophysical model compared to models developed using each of the technologies individually.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Advancing wildlife connectivity in land use planning: a case study with four-toed salamanders

Stable habitat connections that wildlife can safely traverse are essential to biodiversity conservation and healthy ecosystems. We developed high-resolution landscape connectivity models to predict resistance to movement by a threatened wetland-obligate amphibian, the four-toed salamander ( Hemidactylium scutatum ), and identified priority management areas on the 13,000-ha Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) from 2019 to 2022. We developed a resistance surface based on aerial light detection and ranging data (LiDAR), >30 years of field-based mapping of forest, hydrologic, and geologic features, and contemporary population surveys, alongside derived predictors at <1-m resolution. We then modeled predicted movement corridors using a circuit theory-based modeling approach. We worked closely with land management and natural resources personnel to integrate ecological modeling with broader land use priorities, monetary costs, and feasibility. We identified important terrestrial and aquatic areas on ORR and simulated management scenarios to promote stable connections for four-toed salamanders. This approach allowed us to narrow down a list of 438 potential habitat manipulation sites to 10 sites where open-bottomed culverts and buffers could be implemented. This smaller-scale restoration approach produced a similar increase in landscape connectivity while costing <20% of a larger-scale approach based on barrier removal. We successfully identified feasible, cost-effective management strategies that integrated knowledge from a variety of sources. In conclusion, we offer a strategy that permitted integration of wildlife management goals into infrastructure upgrades wherein wildlife was not an initial consideration.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Wabash CarbonSAFE Subtask 7.1 – Pre-drilling Site Assessment Topical Report: DOE-FE0031626-1

The Wabash CarbonSAFE project will drill a stratigraphic test well at the Wabash Valley Resources facility near Terre Haute, Indiana. Lithologic, geomechanical, and geophysical data collected from samples testing and an extensive geophysical logging suite will be used to determine the feasibility for the geologic sequestration of 50 million metric tons or more of injected carbon dioxide. The primary target reservoir and caprock to be investigated for the Wabash CarbonSAFE project are the Mt. Simon Sandstone and Eau Claire Shale, respectively. The project team has assessed the planned Wabash #1 drilling site using subsurface geologic data and analyses from both Illinois and Indiana. These data were used to generate geologic structure and isopach thickness maps for target reservoir and caprock layers which were incorporated into a detailed discussion of the nature of the Illinois Basin’s Cambro-Ordovician carbon dioxide storage complex at the drilling site. Formation tops were prognosed for 19 lithologic units to aid drilling and coring procedures. Additional GIS analysis indicates that no known structural features will negatively impact the target storage reservoir or caprock, nor will protected and sensitive areas, groundwater resources, or existing resource development be negatively affected by Wabash #1 drilling activities. The Wabash #1 Geologic/Structure Test well drilling permit was awarded by Indiana Department of Natural Resources (IN-DNR) – Division of Oil and Gas on November 12th, 2019, and the well is expected to be drilled to a total depth of approximately 8,350 feet. Potential impacts on drilling progress include abandoned underground coal mines which mined the Springfield and Survant coals until 1964 and 1954, respectively, and a lost circulation zone in the Potosi Dolomite, which has been demonstrated to have intermittent cavernous porosity from karstification. This document also details the coring and sampling program, proposed logging suite, and well testing program, all of which will be dynamically reviewed as drilling progresses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Regional Assessment for the CO2 Storage Potential in Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend

The goal of Task 1-11 was to perform an initial assessment of the geologic storage capacity and injectivity of the Northern Fairway of Michigan’s Niagaran Reef Trend. This task included a regional assessment and mapping effort to understand the variability in the reef geology, fluid content, and reservoir parameters across the trend consisting of several hundred reefs.

cross section↗

When less is more: How increasing the complexity of machine learning strategies for geothermal energy assessments may not lead toward better estimates

Previous moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resource assessments of the western United States utilized data-driven methods and expert decisions to estimate resource favorability. Although expert decisions can add confidence to the modeling process by ensuring reasonable models are employed, expert decisions also introduce human and, thereby, model bias. This bias can present a source of error that reduces the predictive performance of the models and confidence in the resulting resource estimates. Our study aims to develop robust data-driven methods with the goals of reducing bias and improving predictive ability. We present and compare nine favorability maps for geothermal resources in the western United States using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's 2008 geothermal resource assessment. Two favorability maps are created using the expert decision-dependent methods from the 2008 assessment (i.e., weight-of-evidence and logistic regression). With the same data, we then create six different favorability maps using logistic regression (without underlying expert decisions), XGBoost, and support-vector machines paired with two training strategies. The training strategies are customized to address the inherent challenges of applying machine learning to the geothermal training data, which have no negative examples and severe class imbalance. We also create another favorability map using an artificial neural network. We demonstrate that modern machine learning approaches can improve upon systems built with expert decisions. We also find that XGBoost, a non-linear algorithm, produces greater agreement with the 2008 results than linear logistic regression without expert decisions, because the expert decisions in the 2008 assessment rendered the otherwise linear approaches non-linear despite the fact that the 2008 assessment used only linear methods. The F1 scores for all approaches appear low (F1 score < 0.10), do not improve with increasing model complexity, and, therefore, indicate the fundamental limitations of the input features (i.e., training data). Until improved feature data are incorporated into the assessment process, simple non-linear algorithms (e.g., XGBoost) perform equally well or better than more complex methods (e.g., artificial neural networks) and remain easier to interpret.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Common risk segment mapping: Streamlining exploration for carbon storage sites, with application to coastal Texas and Louisiana

Large-scale deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) will require a commensurately large number of sites. Efficient screening methods are needed to create investment assurance and focus efforts on the most promising sites. The problem is similar to petroleum exploration, for which there are well-developed (though seldom published) workflows, including Common Risk Segment (CRS) mapping. In brief, the process requires 1) defining the key play elements; 2) identifying candidate geologic intervals for each; 3) creating fact-based maps for those intervals; 4) determining minimum criteria for the success of each element; 5) reinterpreting the fact-based maps in terms of chance of success; and 6) combining the individual maps to form a composite, basin-scale view of prospectivity. We adapt the CRS process to screening for CO 2 storage sites. Critically, we redefine the process in terms of cost of characterization and development, rather than chance of success. For illustration, we apply the process to the example of the Lower Miocene on the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast. We show that the predictions are consistent with historic hydrocarbon production volumes and rates. The power of the CRS method is that it creates a systematic approach to geologic evaluation and translates complex, multidimensional analysis into clear, graphical and easily comprehended business inputs. The results highlight sweet spots and identifies critical risks, suggesting a focus for further data collection and analysis. Furthermore, the method developed here can be applied to both surface and subsurface factors anywhere that there is interest in geologic storage of CO 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗