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At least 91 records · Page 5

Higher‐Order Gravity Waves and Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances From the Polar Vortex Jet on 11–15 January 2016: Modeling With HIAMCM‐SAMI3 and Comparison With Observations in the Thermosphere and Ionosphere

Abstract In Vadas et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ja032521 ), we modeled the atmospheric gravity waves (GWs) during 11–14 January 2016 using the HIAMCM, and found that the polar vortex jet generates medium to large‐scale, higher‐order GWs in the thermosphere. In this paper, we model the traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) generated by these GWs using the HIAMCM‐SAMI3 and compare with ionospheric observations from ground‐based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, Incoherent Scatter Radars (ISR) and the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN). We find that medium to large‐scale TIDs are generated worldwide by the higher‐order GWs from this event. Many of the TIDs over Europe and Asia have concentric ring/arc‐like structure, and most of those over North/South America have planar wave structure and occur during the daytime. Those over North/South America propagate southward and are generated by higher‐order GWs from Europe/Asia which propagate over the Arctic. These latter TIDs can be misidentified as arising from geomagnetic forcing. We find that the higher‐order GWs that propagate to Africa and Brazil from Europe may aid in the formation of equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) there. We find that the simulated GWs, TIDs and EPBs agree with EISCAT, PFISR, GNSS, and SuperDARN measurements. We find that the higher‐order GWs are concentrated at N at 200 km, in agreement with GOCE and CHAMP data. Thus the polar vortex jet is important for generating TIDs in the northern winter ionosphere via multi‐step vertical coupling through GWs.

Vadas, Sharon L. [Northwest Research Associates Bo↗

3D Radio Frequency Mapping and Polarization Observations Show Lightning Flashes Were Ignited by Cosmic‐Ray Showers

Previous 2D radio frequency interferometric observations showed that lightning is commonly started with a positive fast discharge (+FD) before a normal negative leader continues from the origin of the +FD to the ensuing lightning flash. However, the inception and development of the +FD cannot be convincingly explained by existing discharge theories. With our new 3D broadband interferometric mapping and polarization system, we observed that the +FD was sometimes followed by an even faster and more extensive negative discharge (−FD) that propagated backward and overshoot the origin by a few hundred meters, as reported by an earlier 2D study. Surprisingly, the signal polarization, which measures the orientation of the discharge current, systematically slanted from the discharge propagation direction and rotated between the two opposite discharges, showing the +FD and −FD were driven by other storm-independent factors in addition to the storm electric field, or otherwise all would align in the same direction. Assuming a cosmic-ray shower (CRS) piercing through the cloud immediately before the +FD/−FD discharge, we found that their path is consistent with a pre-ionized path by the CRS, and the polarizations for the two opposite discharges are consistent with the respective deflected trajectories of high-energy positrons and electrons in the geomagnetic and an electric field. We further analyzed the more commonly observed +FD and showed that it is consistent with the CRS interpretation, suggesting these flashes in thunderstorms were ignited by cosmic-ray showers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Probabilistic Model for Global EMIC Wave Activity Using Van Allen Probes Observations

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves play a key role in radiation belt dynamics through resonant interactions. However, their low occurrence probability, high variability, and spatial intermittency pose challenges for accurate modeling. In this study, we present a machine learning (ML)-based global EMIC wave model built on the entire data set from the Van Allen Probes mission. To capture the distinct statistical characteristics of wave occurrence and amplitude, the model is separated into two modules: an occurrence model trained using ML techniques, and a wave amplitude model sampled from observed probability distributions. The input parameters are limited to real-time or predictable variables to ensure practical applicability. Our model shows strong performance across the entire test set and demonstrates improved predictive capability over a baseline random occurrence model, particularly during quiet geomagnetic conditions. Evaluation during both quiet and active periods confirms the model's ability to represent the clustered and intermittent nature of EMIC wave activity. Furthermore, the model provides global estimates of wave power, enabling integration with radiation belt electron data and showing signatures consistent with wave-induced scattering. We found a good correlation between the global wave activity from the model and relativistic electron observation by Van Allen Probes, regardless of the availability of in situ wave observations. The modular structure of the model also allows for straightforward expansion for additional wave properties, such as wave frequency, which can be modeled independently. This flexible, event-sensitive approach offers a promising framework for data-driven radiation belt simulations and space weather applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Revealing the Formation of the <20 MeV Inner Proton Radiation Belt at L ∼ 2 During the 10–11 May 2024 Superstorm

A new proton radiation belt was identified during the geomagnetic superstorm of 10–11 May 2024. To investigate its origin, we use an MHD-test particle simulation to model solar energetic proton (SEP) trapping and the evolution of the initial trapped proton population during the storm. The simulation weights the injected SEP population with interplanetary proton measurements and the initial trapped proton radial profile with energy-resolved Weather System Follow-on-Microwave (WSF-M) proton data, enabling quantitative comparison with observations. Results show that SEP contributions are minimal; the new ∼2–18 MeV belt at L ∼ 2 forms mainly through redistribution and energization of the initial trapped population within hours of the CME shock, driven by subsequent electric field impulses, rather than the initial shock alone. These results provide quantitative evidence based on realistic, plasma-dependent field dynamics and significantly advance understanding of inner radiation belt formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Satellite Reentry Predictions During Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Prediction of uncontrolled satellite reentry time and trajectory are essential to avoid damages to human being and properties over land. Reentry time and trajectory are largely controlled by aerodynamic drag and mass neutral density below 200 km. In this paper, using a numerical model of the whole atmosphere, WACCM‐X, and a Precision Orbital Determination software, we demonstrate the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009, during the deep solar minimum of 2009, may cause 0.2–0.3 day of variation in reentry time. The SSW can alter the mass density and composition mixing ratio in the lower thermosphere below 200 km through changed wave forcing and general circulation in the lower thermosphere. This is comparable to the effect of a 2‐SFU (Solar Flux Unit) solar radiance variation on the neutral density. 0.1 day of reentry time uncertainty corresponds to a global shift in impact location, that is, thousands of kilometers distance. For comparison, a major SSW during solar maximum contributes little to reentry time variation, which is predominantly controlled by the solar and geomagnetic forcing. We suggest a few proxies such as O/N 2 in the lower thermosphere or mean meridional wind to account for the lower atmosphere impacts in an operational model. This needs to be investigated in rigorous future work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A New Phase for Space Weather

As we move into the declining phase of solar cycle 25, the sunspot number is going down but space weather impacts are not disappearing. Solar energetic particle events, large x-ray flares, and geomagnetic storms are still happening and the declining phase will bring a different balance of hazards. The need for space weather science, space weather applications, and an interface between research, application, and stakeholder communities has not passed. Observations and insights from solar cycle 25 will continue to help us prepare for solar cycle 26, so that we approach the next solar maximum with better predictions, better understanding of outcomes, and a stronger community enabling more confident mitigation and clearer outreach.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

First-principles theory of the rate of magnetic reconnection in magnetospheric and solar plasmas

Abstract The rate of magnetic reconnection is of the utmost importance in a variety of processes because it controls, for example, the rate energy is released in solar flares, the speed of the Dungey convection cycle in Earth’s magnetosphere, and the energy release rate in harmful geomagnetic substorms. It is known from numerical simulations and satellite observations that the rate is approximately 0.1 in normalized units, but despite years of effort, a full theoretical prediction has not been obtained. Here, we present a first-principles theory for the reconnection rate in non-relativistic electron-ion collisionless plasmas, and show that the same prediction explains why Sweet-Parker reconnection is considerably slower. The key consideration of this analysis is the pressure at the reconnection site (i.e., the x-line). We show that the Hall electromagnetic fields in antiparallel reconnection cause an energy void, equivalently a pressure depletion, at the x-line, so the reconnection exhaust opens out, enabling the fast rate of 0.1. If the energy can reach the x-line to replenish the pressure, the exhaust does not open out. In addition to heliospheric applications, these results are expected to impact reconnection studies in planetary magnetospheres, magnetically confined fusion devices, and astrophysical plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Creating and studying a scaled interplanetary coronal mass ejection

The Sun, being an active star, undergoes eruptions of magnetized plasma that reach the Earth and cause the aurorae near the poles. These eruptions, called coronal mass ejections (CMEs), send plasma and magnetic fields out into space. CMEs that reach planetary orbits are called interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and are a source of geomagnetic storms, which can cause major damage to our modern electrical systems with limited warning. To study ICME propagation, we devised a scaled experiment using the Big Red Ball (BRB) plasma containment device at the Wisconsin Plasma Physics Laboratory. These experiments inject a compact torus of plasma as an ICME through an ambient plasma inside the BRB, which acts as the interplanetary medium. Magnetic and temperature probes provide three-dimensional magnetic field information in time and space, as well as temperature and density as a function of time. Using this information, we can identify features in the compact torus that are consistent with those in real ICMEs. We also identify the shock, sheath, and ejecta similar to the structure of an ICME event. This experiment acts as a first step to providing information that can inform predictive models, which can give us time to shield our satellites and large electrical systems in the event that a powerful ICME were to strike.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

TAROGE-M: radio antenna array on antarctic high mountain for detecting near-horizontal ultra-high energy air showers

The TAROGE-M radio observatory is a self-triggered antenna array on top of the ∼2700 m high Mt. Melbourne in Antarctica, designed to detect impulsive geomagnetic emission from extensive air showers induced by ultra-high energy (UHE) particles beyond 1017 eV, including cosmic rays, Earth-skimming tau neutrinos, and particularly, the “ANITA anomalous events” (AAE) from near and below the horizon. The six AAE discovered by the ANITA experiment have signal features similar to tau neutrinos but that hypothesis is in tension either with the interaction length predicted by Standard Model or with the flux limits set by other experiments. Their origin remains uncertain, requiring more experimental inputs for clarification.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Earth as a transducer for dark-photon dark-matter detection

We propose the use of the Earth as a transducer for ultralight dark-matter detection. In particular, we point out a novel signal of kinetically mixed dark-photon dark matter: a monochromatic oscillating magnetic field generated at the surface of the Earth. Similar to the signal in a laboratory experiment in a shielded box (or cavity), this signal arises because the lower atmosphere is a low-conductivity air gap sandwiched between the highly conductive interior of the Earth below and ionosphere or interplanetary medium above. At low masses (frequencies) the signal in a laboratory detector is usually suppressed by the size of the detector multiplied by the dark-matter mass. Crucially, in our case the suppression is by the radius of the Earth, and not by the (much smaller) height of the atmosphere. We compute the size and global vectorial pattern of our magnetic field signal, which enables sensitive searches for this signal using unshielded magnetometers dispersed over the surface of the Earth. In principle, the signal we compute exists for any dark photon in the mass range 10 –21 eV ≲ m A' ≲ 3 × 10 –14 eV . We summarize the results of our companion paper [M. A. Fedderke et al., Search for dark-photon dark matter in the SuperMAG geomagnetic field dataset, arXiv:2108.08852], in which we detail such a search using a publicly available dataset from the SuperMAG Collaboration: we report no robust signal candidates and so place constraints in the (more limited) dark-photon dark-matter mass range 2 × 10 –18 eV ≲ m A' ≲ 7 × 10 –17 eV (corresponding to frequencies 6 × 10 –4 Hz ≲ f ≲ 2 × 10 –2 Hz). These constraints are complementary to existing astrophysical bounds. Future searches for this signal may improve the sensitivity over a wide range of ultralight dark-matter candidates and masses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Search for ultralight dark matter in the SuperMAG high-fidelity dataset

Ultralight dark matter, such as kinetically mixed dark-photon dark matter (DPDM) or axion-like-particle dark matter (axion DM), can source an oscillating magnetic-field signal at Earth’s surface. Previous work searched for this signal in a publicly available dataset of global magnetometer measurements maintained by the SuperMAG collaboration. This “low-fidelity” dataset reported measurements with a 1-min time resolution, allowing the search to set leading direct constraints on DPDM and axion DM with Compton frequencies f DM ≤ 1 / ( 1 min ) (corresponding to masses m DM ≤ 7 × 10 − 17 eV ). More recently, a dedicated experiment undertaken by the SNIPE Hunt collaboration has also searched for this same signal at higher frequencies f DM ≥ 0.5 Hz (or m DM ≥ 2 × 10 − 15 eV ). In this work, we search for this signal of ultralight DM in the SuperMAG “high-fidelity” dataset, which features a 1-sec time resolution, allowing us to probe the gap in parameter space between the low-fidelity dataset and the SNIPE Hunt experiment. The high-fidelity dataset exhibits lower geomagnetic noise than the low-fidelity dataset and features more data than the SNIPE Hunt experiment, making it a powerful probe of ultralight DM. Our search finds no robust DPDM or axion DM candidates. We set constraints on DPDM and axion DM parameter space for 10 − 3 Hz ≤ f DM ≤ 0.98 Hz (or 4 × 10 − 18 eV ≤ m DM ≤ 4 × 10 − 15 eV ). Our results are the leading direct constraints on both DPDM and axion DM in this mass range, and our DPDM constraint surpasses the leading astrophysical constraint in a narrow range around m A ′ ≈ 2 × 10 − 15 eV . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

SpecSims: A Scalable Speculative Tree-based Simulation Cloning Framework for Finite Memory Machines

Simulation cloning is a technique in which cloned simulations whose state spaces differ partially from their parent simulation due to intervening events are spawned at runtime and concurrently advanced. It is a powerful method to carry out what-if analysis by speculatively exploring and evaluating the impact of various permutations of intervening cascade of events. Due to the exponential growth in the number of possible clones even for a small number of distinct intervening events, the practical efficacy of the approach is often severely limited by the maximum available memory of the computing host. In this paper, we introduce a novel speculative simulation cloning framework that executes a simulation cloning campaign capable of efficiently exploring an exponentially large space of clone simulations created by permutation of intervening events under a finite memory constraint. We provide a theoretical analysis of the runtime characteristics of our proposed approach and highlight its novel advantages such as memory-aware and as-long-as-needed execution. Furthermore, in support of our analytical findings and to demonstrate its practical feasibility, we implement a prototype of the cloning framework on a shared memory system and report its performance characteristics in the context of a heat diffusion simulation, and a power grid simulation subject to cascading disruptions from geomagnetic disturbances.

Simulation framework↗

HEMP Transformer Defense Through Power Electronics

High altitude electromagnetic pulses and geo-magnetic disturbances have the potential to severely impact the electric power grid by damaging large power transformers and causing severe power quality issues. This impact comes as a result of a quasi-static bias induced on transmission lines by geomagnetically induced currents which saturate magnetic components in the electric power system. This paper introduces the concept of utilizing a h-bridge inverter on the neutral of a LPT to inject a DC bias equivalent voltage onto the neutral side of the transformer windings. This biasing floats the transformer windings, eliminating the effect of the DC current and keeping the transformer from saturating. Schematic diagrams will be presented, along with simulation model data using Typhoon and PLECS, and finally test results from a benchtop hardware test.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

High-resolution magnetic microscopy applications using nitrogen-vacancy centers in diamond

Magnetic microscopy with high spatial resolution helps to solve a variety of technical problems in condensed-matter physics, electrical engineering, biomagnetism, and geomagnetism. In this work we used quantum diamond magnetic microscope (QDMM) setups, which use a dense uniform layer of magnetically-sensitive nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers in diamond to image an external magnetic field using a fluorescence microscope. We used this technique for imaging few-micron ferromagnetic needles used as a physically unclonable function (PUF) and to passively interrogate electric current paths in a commercial 555 timer integrated circuit (IC). As part of the QDMM development, we also found a way to calculate ion implantation recipes to create diamond samples with dense uniform NV layers at the surface. This work opens the possibility for follow-up experiments with 2D magnetic materials, ion implantation, and electronics characterization and troubleshooting.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

High-Altitude Burst Observed at Large Ground Ranges

The rise times computed by the author’s three-dimensional geomagnetic electromagnetic pulse (EMP) code MACSYNC for a high-altitude nuclear burst increase from a fraction of a shake under the burst to tens of shakes at a 1,000 km ground range (one shake equals 10 nanoseconds). Computations for similar geometries with the frequently used one-dimensional spherical EMP codes CHAP and HEMP show similar rise times under the burst, but rise times that are an order-of-magnitude shorter at large ground ranges. This difference is likely due to the inability of these codes to treat the three-dimensional aspect of the slanted EMP incidence on the atmosphere.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Computational Tool for Cosmic Ray Flux and Cosmogenic Activation Production Rates

Silicon charge couple devices (CCDs) are used in direct detection dark matter searches. Silicon can be obtained with very high purity and negligible amounts of radioactive contaminants. However, silicon exposed to cosmic rays can be activated, leading to the buildup of radioactive isotopes such as tritium. The decay of tritium can produce signals that cannot be distinguished from the expected signals of dark matter interactions and tritium produced by cosmic rays is expected as one of the leading sources of background for next-generation experiments. The cosmic ray flux depends on variables such as geomagnetic latitude and longitude, atmospheric depth/altitude, solar activity, and surrounding environment for example. The goal of this work is to create a tool that will evaluate the total cosmic ray exposure and related tritium production rate for any given exposure history of a silicon detector. EXcel-based Program for calculation Atmospheric Cosmic-ray Spectrum (EXPACS) was used to obtain the cosmic ray fluxes. We have worked on creating a 3-dimensional gird that spans latitude, longitude, and altitude, and can be used to interpolate the cosmic ray flux at any given location. This computation tool additionally has use for work requiring knowledge of the cosmic ray flux at multiple locations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Advancing Electric System Resilience with Distributed Energy Resources: A Review of State Policies

Severe weather, cyber-attacks, geomagnetic disturbances, and other hazards and threats have caused or have the potential to cause substantial levels of damage to electricity infrastructure and the global economy. Growth in distributed energy resources (DERs) and increasing attention to the resilience of the electric grid - its ability to "anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover" from disruptions, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC, 2018) - have created an opportunity for energy stakeholders to develop and deploy "resilient DERs," resources in the distribution grid that improve the ability of a customer, critical facility, and/or the distribution system in general to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from disruptions. This paper explores how existing state regulations intersect with resilience and highlights opportunities where state regulators can employ DERs to advance resilience.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar system storms in the lab: creating a scaled interplanetary coronal mass ejection

As an active star, the Sun frequently ejects large systems of magnetized plasma called Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs). When these ICMEs reach Earth, they cause geomagnetic storms, and, depending on their intensity, can wreak havoc on modern society [3]. In this project, we designed, executed, and diagnosed a proof-of-principle experiment aimed at studying ICMEs in a laboratory setting.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗