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79 records · Page 5
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DOE OSTI2024

RCEMIP-II: mock-Walker simulations as phase II of the radiative–convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

Abstract. The radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) model intercomparison project (RCEMIP) leveraged the simplicity of RCE to focus attention on moist convective processes and their interactions with radiation and circulation across a wide range of model types including cloud-resolving models (CRMs), general circulation models (GCMs), single-column models, global cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. While several robust results emerged across the spectrum of models that participated in the first phase of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-I), two points that stand out are (1) the strikingly large diversity in simulated climate states and (2) the strong imprint of convective self-aggregation on the climate state. However, the lack of consensus in the structure of self-aggregation and its response to warming is a barrier to understanding. Gaining a deeper understanding of convective aggregation and tropical climate will require reducing the degrees of freedom with which convection can vary. Therefore, we propose phase II of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-II) that utilizes a prescribed sinusoidal sea surface temperature (SST) pattern to provide a constraint on the structure of convection and move one critical step up the model hierarchy. This so-called “mock-Walker” configuration generates features that resemble observed tropical circulations. The specification of the mock-Walker protocol for RCEMIP-II is described, along with example results from one CRM and one GCM. RCEMIP-II will consist of five required simulations: three simulations with the same three mean SSTs as in RCEMIP-I but with an SST gradient and two additional simulations at one of the mean SSTs with different values of the SST gradients. We also test the sensitivity to the imposed SST gradient and the domain size. Under weak SST gradients, unforced self-aggregation emerges across the entire domain, similar to what was found in RCEMIP. As the SST gradient increases, the convective region narrows and is more confined to the warmest SSTs. At warmer mean SSTs and stronger SST gradients, low-frequency variability in the convective aggregation emerges, suggesting that simulations of at least 200 d may be needed to achieve robust equilibrium statistics in this configuration. Simulations with different domain sizes generally have similar mean statistics and convective structures, depending on the value of the SST gradient. The prescribed SST boundary condition is the only difference in the set-up between RCEMIP-II and RCEMIP-I, which enables comparison between the two; however, we also welcome participation in RCEMIP-II from models that did not participate in RCEMIP-I.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving Convection Trigger Functions in Deep Convective Parameterization Schemes Using Machine Learning

Abstract Deficiencies in convection trigger functions, used in deep convection parameterizations in General Circulation Models (GCMs), have critical impacts on climate simulations. A novel convection trigger function is developed using the machine learning (ML) classification model XGBoost. The large‐scale environmental information associated with convective events is obtained from the long‐term constrained variational analysis forcing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program at its Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Manaus (MAO) sites representing, respectively, continental mid‐latitude and tropical convection. The ML trigger is separately trained and evaluated per site, and jointly trained and evaluated at both sites as a unified trigger. The performance of the ML trigger is compared with four convective trigger functions commonly used in GCMs: dilute convective available potential energy (CAPE), undilute CAPE, dilute dynamic CAPE (dCAPE), and undilute dCAPE. The ML trigger substantially outperforms the four CAPE‐based triggers in terms of the F 1 score metric, widely used to estimate the performance of ML methods. The site‐specific ML trigger functions can achieve, respectively, 91% and 93% F 1 scores at SGP and MAO. The unified trigger also has a 91% F 1 score, with virtually no degradation from the site‐specific training, suggesting the potential of a global ML trigger function. The ML trigger alleviates a GCM deficiency regarding the overprediction of convection occurrence, offering a promising improvement to the simulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Furthermore, to overcome the black box issue of the ML methods, insights derived from the ML model are discussed, which may be leveraged to improve traditional CAPE‐based triggers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

MJO Teleconnections over the PNA Region in Climate Models. Part II: Impacts of the MJO and Basic State

In an assessment of 29 global climate models (GCMs), Part I of this study identified biases in boreal winter MJO teleconnections in anomalous 500-hPa geopotential height over the Pacific–North America (PNA) region that are common to many models: an eastward shift, a longer persistence, and a larger amplitude. In Part II, we explore the relationships of the teleconnection metrics developed in Part I with several existing and newly developed MJO and basic state (the mean subtropical westerly jet) metrics. The MJO and basic state diagnostics indicate that the MJO is generally weaker and less coherent and propagates faster in models compared to observations. The mean subtropical jet also exhibits notable biases such as too strong amplitude, excessive eastward extension, or southward shift. The following relationships are found to be robust among the models: 1) models with a faster MJO propagation tend to produce weaker teleconnections; 2) models with a less coherent eastward MJO propagation tend to simulate more persistent MJO teleconnections; 3) models with a stronger westerly jet produce stronger and eastward shifted MJO teleconnections; 4) models with an eastward extended jet produce an eastward shift in MJO teleconnections; and 5) models with a southward shifted jet produce stronger MJO teleconnections. The results are supported by linear baroclinic model experiments. Our results suggest that the larger amplitude and eastward shift biases in GCM MJO teleconnections can be attributed to the biases in the westerly jet, and that the longer persistence bias is likely due to the lack of coherent eastward MJO propagation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Life Cycle of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the Southern Hemisphere from a Multimillennial GCM Simulation

Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are rare in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), making it difficult to study possible precursors or subsequent impacts. Using a multimillennial coupled climate model simulation producing 161 SSWs in the SH, we present a detailed study of their life cycle. We show that SH SSWs are predominantly displacement events forced by wave-1 planetary waves, and that a surface signature similar to the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is detectable up to two months before the onset date, but there is a tendency for a transition from wave 1 before to zonally symmetric anomalies after onset. We identify a strong weakening of the Amundsen Sea low as one of the most prominent precursors, which weakens the climatological wave-2 and wave-3 stationary waves and strengthens wave-1 forcing. Compared to their northern counterparts, SH SSWs generally have a longer time scale, and while there is evidence of pre-onset forcing related to tropical sea surface temperatures, the Indian Ocean dipole is more important than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Significance Statement Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme events where the winter polar stratosphere warms within a few days to temperatures usually only experienced in summer. These events are rare in the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore, both the observational record and standard climate model simulations are not enough to understand how SSWs develop, or how they might change surface weather. Here we use very long global climate simulations that produce a large number of SSWs in the Southern Hemisphere to study the development and impact of these events. This includes possible precursors as well as the influence they have on surface weather after they occur.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Important ice processes are missed by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in Southern Ocean mixed–phase clouds: Bridging SOCRATES observations to model developments

Global climate models (GCMs) are challenged by difficulties in simulating cloud phase and cloud radiative effect over the Southern Ocean (SO). Some of the new generation GCMs predict too much liquid and too little ice in mixed-phase clouds. This misrepresentation of cloud phase in GCMs results in weaker negative cloud feedback over the SO and a higher climate sensitivity. Based on a model comparison with observational data obtained during the Southern Ocean Cloud Radiation and Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES), this study addresses a key uncertainty in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) related to cloud phase, namely ice formation in pristine remote SO clouds. It is found that sea spray organic aerosols (SSOA) are the most important type of ice nucleating particles (INPs) over the SO with concentrations one order of magnitude higher than those of dust INPs based on measurements and CESM2 simulations. Secondary ice production (SIP) which includes riming splintering, rain droplet shattering, and ice-ice collisional fragmentation as implemented in CESM2 is the dominant ice production process in moderately cold clouds with cloud temperatures greater than –20°C. SIP enhances the in-cloud ice number concentrations (Ni) by 1-3 orders of magnitude and predicts more mixed-phase (with percentage occurrence increased from 15% to 21%), in better agreement with the observations. Finally, this study highlights the importance of accurately representing cloud phase over the pristine remote SO by considering the ice nucleation of SSOA and SIP processes, which are currently missing in most GCM cloud microphysics parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Simulation of Precipitation Over East Asia by Variable Resolution CAM-MPAS

This study evaluates the precipitation over East Asia simulated by the variable resolution CAM-MPAS featuring the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) atmospheric dynamical core coupled with the physics parameterizations of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 5.4. Two CAM-MPAS experiments, one with a global quasi-uniform resolution mesh of 120 km (MPAS-UR) and the other with a variable resolution mesh of 30 to 120 km refined over East Asia (MPAS-VR), are conducted from 1989 to 2005 following the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project protocol. Two regional climate model simulations at ~25 km resolution from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment East Asia second plan are also analyzed for comparison. Results show that CAM-MPAS performs better than the selected regional models in simulating the precipitation climatology over East Asia. Compared with MPAS-UR, MPAS-VR with refinement over East Asia better simulates the precipitation over and around the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the frequency distribution of light, moderate, and heavy precipitation in various regions of China, and the interannual precipitation pattern associated with the East Asian summer monsoon. The improvements in MPAS-VR relative to MPAS-UR largely come from the decreased grid spacing rather than the use of finer-scale terrain information. Particularly, decreased grid spacing is more essential for simulating the precipitation magnitude over TP and the location of peak precipitation south of TP, likely due to the better resolved physical and dynamical processes associated with orographic precipitation. The 30-120 km CAM-MPAS model is shown to be a promising tool for precipitation simulation over East Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soil-related developments of the Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 terrestrial ecosystem model

Terrestrial biogeochemical models are essential tools to quantify climate–carbon cycle feedback and plant–soil relations from local to global scale. In this study, a theoretical basis is provided for the latest version of the Biome-BGCMuSo biogeochemical model (version 6.2). Biome-BGCMuSo is a branch of the original Biome-BGC model with a large number of developments and structural changes. Earlier model versions performed poorly in terms of soil water content (SWC) dynamics in different environments. Moreover, lack of detailed nitrogen cycle representation was a major limitation of the model. Since problems associated with these internal drivers might influence the final results and parameter estimation, additional structural improvements were necessary. In this paper the improved soil hydrology as well as the soil carbon and nitrogen cycle calculation methods are described in detail. Capabilities of the Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 model are demonstrated via case studies focusing on soil hydrology, soil nitrogen cycle, and soil organic carbon content estimation. Soil-hydrology-related results are compared to observation data from an experimental lysimeter station. The results indicate improved performance for Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 compared to v4.0 (explained variance increased from 0.121 to 0.8 for SWC and from 0.084 to 0.46 for soil evaporation; bias changed from -0.047 to -0.007 m 3 m -3 for SWC and from -0.68 to -0.2 mm d -1 for soil evaporation). Simulations related to nitrogen balance and soil CO 2 efflux were evaluated based on observations made in a long-term field experiment under crop rotation. The results indicated that the model is able to provide realistic nitrate content estimation for the topsoil. Soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) efflux and soil respiration simulations were also realistic, with overall correspondence with the observations (for the N 2 O efflux simulation bias was between -0.13 and -0.1 mgNm -2 d -1 , and normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) was 32.4 %–37.6 %; for CO 2 efflux simulations bias was 0.04–0.17 gCm -2 d -1 , while NRMSE was 34.1 %–40.1 %). Sensitivity analysis and optimization of the decomposition scheme are presented to support practical application of the model. The improved version of Biome-BGCMuSo has the ability to provide more realistic soil hydrology representation as well as nitrification and denitrification process estimation, which represents a major milestone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗