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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Benchmarking Simulated Precipitation Variability Amplitude across Time Scales

Here, objective performance metrics that measure precipitation variability across time scales from subdaily to interannual are presented and applied to Historical simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) models. Three satellite-based precipitation estimates (IMERG, TRMM, and CMORPH) are used as reference data. We apply two independent methods to estimate temporal variability of precipitation and compare the consistency in their results. The first method is derived from power spectra analysis of 3-hourly precipitation, measuring forced variability by solar insolation (diurnal and annual cycles) and internal variability at different time scales (subdaily, synoptic, subseasonal, seasonal, and interannual). The second method is based on time averaging and facilitates estimating the seasonality of subdaily variability. Supporting the robustness of our metric, we find a near equivalence between the results obtained from the two methods when examining simulated-to-observed ratios over large domains (global, tropics, extratropics, land, or ocean). Additionally, we demonstrate that our model evaluation is not very sensitive to the discrepancies between observations. Our results reveal that CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in general overestimate the forced variability while they underestimate the internal variability, especially in the tropical ocean and higher-frequency variability. The underestimation of subdaily variability is consistent across different seasons. The internal variability is overall improved in CMIP6, but remains underestimated, and there is little evidence of improvement in forced variability. Increased horizontal resolution results in some improvement of internal variability at subdaily and synoptic time scales, but not at longer time scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraints and Drivers of Dissolved Fluxes of Pyrogenic Carbon in Soil and Freshwater Systems: A Global Review and Meta‐Analysis

Abstract Pyrogenic carbon (PyC) is a significant component of the global soil carbon pool due to its longer environmental persistence than other soil organic matter components. Despite PyC's persistence in soil, recent work has indicated that it is susceptible to loss processes such as mineralization and leaching, with the significance and magnitude of these largely unknown at the hillslope and watershed scales. We present a review of the work concerning dissolved PyC transport in soil and freshwater. Our analysis found that the primary environmental controls on dissolved PyC (dPyC) transport are the formation conditions and quality of the PyC itself, with longer and higher temperature charring conditions leading to less transport of dPyC. While correlations between dPyC and dissolved organic carbon in rivers and other pools are frequently reported, the slope of these correlations was pool‐dependent (i.e., soil‐water, precipitation, lakes, streams, rivers), suggesting site‐specific environmental controls. However, the lack of consistency in analytical techniques and sample preparation remains a major challenge to quantifying environmental controls on dPyC fluxes. We propose that future research should focus on the following: (a) consistency in methodological approaches, (b) more quantitative measures of dPyC in pools and fluxes from soils to streams, (c) turnover times of dPyC in soils and aquatic systems, and (d) improved understanding of how mechanisms controlling the fate of dPyC in dynamic post‐fire landscapes interact. With more refined quantitative information about the controls on dPyC transport at the hillslope and landscape scale, we can increase the accuracy and utility of global carbon models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The soil health assessment protocol and evaluation applied to soil organic carbon

The concept of soil health has evolved over the past several decades, recognizing that dynamic soil property response to management and land use is highly dependent on site-specific factors that must be considered when interpreting soil health measurements. Initially, the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF) and Comprehensive Assessment of Soil Health (CASH) were developed and used globally for scoring soil health indicators. However, both SMAF and CASH frameworks were developed using a relatively small dataset and their interpretation curves were not validated at the nationwide scale. Expanding upon these concepts, we propose the Soil Health Assessment Protocol and Evaluation (SHAPE) tool. The SHAPE was developed using 14,680 soil organic C (SOC) observations from across the United States, and accounts for edaphic and climate factors at the continental scale. Data were compiled from the literature, the Cornell Soil Health Laboratory, and the Kellogg Soil Survey Laboratory. In this approach, scoring curves are Bayesian model-based estimates of the conditional cumulative distribution function (CDF) for defined soil peer groups reflecting five soil texture and five soil suborder classes adjusted for mean annual temperature and precipitation. Specifically, SHAPE produces scores between 0 and 1 (0–100%) for measured SOC values that reflect the quantile or position within the conditional CDF along with measures of uncertainty. Herein, we focus on development of the SHAPE scoring curve for SOC with our case studies. SHAPE is a flexible, quantitative tool that provides a regionally relevant interpretation of this key soil health indicator.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Polar primary aerosols across the ocean-sea ice-snow-atmosphere interface: From sources to impacts

Primary aerosols play a critical role in polar climate systems, influencing cloud formation, precipitation, radiative balance, and surface energy budgets. This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of primary aerosol sources, transformation and removal processes, and broader atmospheric impacts in polar regions, emphasizing their links to ocean and sea ice biogeochemistry. These aerosols (including sea salt, primary organic aerosol, and primary biological aerosol particles) originate from marine and cryospheric environments and are emitted through physical processes, such as wave breaking, bubble bursting, and blowing snow. Emission sources include seawater, sea ice, snow, and freshwater from river discharge and glacial runoff. Once airborne, these particles can serve as a chemical reservoir, influencing atmospheric composition and reactivity, and as seeds for cloud droplet and ice crystal formation, influencing cloud microphysics and polar climate. Despite their importance, many of the processes governing primary aerosol emissions and transformations remain poorly constrained. The most pressing knowledge gaps pertain to emission processes, limited spatiotemporal observational coverage, instrumentation constraints, parameterization development, and the integration of interdisciplinary expertise. To improve our understanding of primary aerosol drivers and their response to climate, future research efforts should prioritize strategically coordinated and cross-disciplinary process studies, advancements in measurement technologies and coverage, and close collaboration between modelers and observational scientists to inform and refine model parameterizations. As polar regions continue to undergo profound changes marked by increased precipitation, reduced sea and land ice, freshening oceans, and shifting ecosystem dynamics, characterizing present-day primary aerosol populations is vital. Improved understanding will be essential for anticipating future changes in aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions and their implications for polar and global climate systems.

Aerosol-cloud↗
DOE OSTI2025

Amplified Mesoscale and Submesoscale Variability and Increased Concentration of Precipitation under Global Warming over Western North America

Abstract Cold-season precipitation statistics in simulations from the storm-resolving WRF Model at 6-km and 1-h resolution over western North America are analyzed. Pseudo–global warming future simulations for the 2041–80 period, constrained by GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are compared to the 1981–2020 historical simulation. The analysis focuses on the dynamical properties of precipitation time series at subdaily scales and on the morphology of storms. The statistical distribution of precipitation intensities in each pixel of the simulation domain is characterized through nonparametric statistical indicators: frequency of wet hours, mean wet-hour precipitation intensity, and Gini coefficient as a measure of the temporal concentration of the precipitation volume. Additionally, the temporal and spatial Fourier power spectra of precipitation time series and precipitation fields are analyzed. The half-power period (HPP) and half-power wavelength (HPW) are defined as spectral measures of the characteristic scales of precipitation’s temporal and spatial patterns. The results show statistically significant increases in the mean wet-hour precipitation intensity and in the Gini coefficient in 99% of the pixels, indicating that the seasonal precipitation volume becomes more concentrated within a smaller number of hours with higher precipitation intensity. The statistics of change in the frequency of wet hours are more contrasted across the simulation domain. The changes are also reflected in the power spectra, which show the spatial and temporal variability increasing proportionally more with finer spatial and temporal scales and the HPW and HPP decreasing. These projected changes are expected to have consequences, not only in terms of hydrologic impacts but also in terms of the predictability of precipitation patterns. Significance Statement The precipitation characteristics of winter storms over the western United States and southwestern Canada are analyzed in future climate simulations for the 2041–80 period. As compared to present-day climate, the most intense parts of the storms are projected to produce a higher rainfall volume, with increased concentration over smaller areas and shorter time intervals. The propensity of rainfall intensity to vary rapidly over time will be enhanced in the future according to the simulations. These model predictions imply an increased risk of rapid flooding in small basins. They also suggest that predicting several hours ahead the time and location at which a storm will produce maximum rainfall may become more challenging in the future.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2024

Influence of covariance of aerosol and meteorology on co-located precipitating and non-precipitating clouds over the Indo-Gangetic Plain

Aerosol–cloud–precipitation interaction (ACPI) plays a pivotal role in the global and regional water cycle and the earth's energy budget; however, it remains highly uncertain due to the different underlying physical mechanisms. Therefore, this study aims to systematically analyze the effects of aerosols and meteorological factors on ACPI in the co-located precipitating clouds (PCs) and non-precipitating clouds (NPCs) in winter and summer seasons by employing the long-term (2001–2021) retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) coupled with the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-II datasets over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). The results exhibit a decadal increase in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over Lahore (5.2 %), Delhi (9 %), Kanpur (10.7 %), and Gandhi College (22.7 %) and a decrease over Karachi (-1.9 %) and Jaipur (-0.5 %). The most stable meteorology with high values of lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) is found in both seasons over Karachi. In the summer season, the occurrence frequency of clouds is high (74 %) over Gandhi College, 60 % of which are PCs. Conversely, the lowest number of PCs is found over Karachi. Similarly, in the winter season, the frequency of cloud occurrence is low over Karachi and high over Lahore and Gandhi College. The analysis of cloud top pressure (CTP) and cloud optical thickness (COT) indicates high values of cloud fraction (CF) for thick and high-level clouds over all study areas except Karachi. The microphysical properties such as cloud effective radius (CER) and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) bear high values (CER ≳ 15 µm and CDNC ≳ 50 cm -3 ) for both NPCs and PCs in summer. The AOD–CER correlation is good (weak) for PCs (NPCs) in winter. Similarly, the sensitivity value of the first indirect effect (FIE) is high (ranging from 0.2 ± 0.13 to 0.3 ± 0.01 in winter and from 0.19 ± 0.03 to 0.32 ± 0.05 in summer) for PCs and low for NPCs. The sensitivity value for the second indirect effect (SIE) is relatively higher (such as 0.6 ± 0.14 in winter and 0.4 ± 0.04 in summer) than FIE. Sensitivity values of the aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) are low (i.e., -0.06 ± 0.09) for PCs in summer. Furthermore, the precipitation rate (PR) exhibits high values in the summer season, primarily due to the significant contribution from optically thick clouds with lower CDNC (≲ 50 cm -3 ) and larger CER and the intermediate contribution from optically thick clouds with higher CDNC ( ≳ 50 cm -3 ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Aerosol Hygroscopic Growth, Mixing State, and Cloud Condensation Nuclei Activity during TRACER (Field Campaign Report)

Convective clouds play a critical role in the Earth’s climate system. Recent research has shown that a realistic representation of convective processes is critical to constraining climate sensitivity in global climate models. Theoretical and modeling studies showed that aerosols could have strong dynamic feedback to convection in warm and humid environments through enhancing ice-related processes and condensational growth. A few observation-based studies also suggested the influence of aerosols on convective cloud and precipitation properties. However, robust observational quantification of an aerosol effect on convective clouds isolated from other factors remains elusive. Understanding the impact of aerosol on convective clouds requires knowledge of the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) spectrum, which represents the number of particles that uptake water and form cloud droplets as a function of supersaturation. The water uptake by aerosol is also of critical importance for the direct interaction of aerosol with radiation (i.e., aerosol direct effect) due to light scattering and absorption by aerosol. While both droplet activation under supersaturated conditions (i.e., relative humidity RH > 100%) and the hygroscopic growth under sub-saturated conditions (i.e., RH < 100%) are strongly influenced by particle hygroscopicity, the thermodynamic regimes and measurement methods are quite different. Aerosol particles, especially organic particles, can exhibit higher hygroscopicity for droplet activation than that for hygroscopic growth. In the subsaturated regime, the hygroscopicity of organic particles can also vary strongly with RH. However, global climate models usually treat organic species in aerosols with a constant hygroscopicity, potentially introducing substantial uncertainties in the quantification of aerosol radiative effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interannual variability of spring and summer monsoon growing season carbon exchange at a semiarid savanna over nearly two decades

Eddy covariance measurements of land-atmosphere energy, carbon, and water exchange now span multiple decades at some sites, supporting an improved understanding of flux interannual variability (IAV) and its ecophysiological and physical controls. Most eddy covariance IAV studies have focused on temperate forest ecosystems, where carbon fluxes are large and flux records are longest – but also where IAV is much lower than in dryland regions, which have been identified as an essential driver of the trend and variability in the global terrestrial carbon sink. In this study, we leveraged 19 years of continuous micrometeorological measurements at the AmeriFlux US-SRM mesquite savanna site in southern Arizona, USA to quantify the IAV, trends, and drivers of carbon fluxes during the distinct spring and summer growing seasons. We also assessed the ability of modern satellite and land surface models to capture the IAV of seasonal water and carbon fluxes. Annual net ecosystem production (NEP) was small and highly variable (23 +/- 64 gC m –2 yr –1 ). Precipitation and associated measures of water availability determined most of the variability in NEP, largely through their influence on annual and seasonal gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) as opposed to ecosystem respiration (ER). Root-zone soil moisture captured between 73% (spring) and 85% (summer) of GEP variability and between 73% (spring) and 58% (summer) of ER variability. Throughout the study period, soil moisture and greenness increased with associated increases in GEP, ER and NEP. These trends were strongly influenced by very productive and wet summer growing seasons during the last two years, which were characterized by abundant understory grass cover. Typically, less than half of the variability in growing season GEP and evapotranspiration was captured by satellite-based estimates and land surface model simulations with local site forcing and calibration, highlighting the ongoing utility of long-term datasets to support careful model testing and improvement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Abrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming

Abstract Human activities affect the Earth’s climate through modifying the composition of the atmosphere, which then creates radiative forcing that drives climate change. The warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases has been partially balanced by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. In 2020, fuel regulations abruptly reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% and created an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock with global impact. Here we estimate the regulation leads to a radiative forcing of $$+0.2\pm 0.11$$ + 0.2 ± 0.11 Wm −2 averaged over the global ocean. The amount of radiative forcing could lead to a doubling (or more) of the warming rate in the 2020 s compared with the rate since 1980 with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The warming effect is consistent with the recent observed strong warming in 2023 and expected to make the 2020 s anomalously warm. The forcing is equivalent in magnitude to 80% of the measured increase in planetary heat uptake since 2020. The radiative forcing also has strong hemispheric contrast, which has important implications for precipitation pattern changes. Our result suggests marine cloud brightening may be a viable geoengineering method in temporarily cooling the climate that has its unique challenges due to inherent spatiotemporal heterogeneity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating and Improving Convective Parameterization for GCMs Using ARM Observations. Final report

This technical report summarizes the achievements during the project period funded by the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program. The general goal of the project is to improve the representation of atmospheric deep convection in global climate models. By using DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program observations and a hierarchy of models from cloud-resolving to global climate models, we evaluated and improved many aspects of convection parameterization schemes, such as the trigger function for convection and closure condition to determine the amount of convection. We also incorporated the stochasticity of convection into a convection scheme. These improvements, when implemented into the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the DOE Exascale Energy Earth System Model (E3SM), led to improved simulation of precipitation characteristics, including precipitation intensity, Intertropical Convergence Zone, and Madden-Julian oscillation. The project also improved the representation of microphysical processes in convective clouds. It enables the interaction of cloud microphysics with aerosols in weather and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bark beetle impacts on forest evapotranspiration and its partitioning

Insect outbreaks affect forest structure and function and represent a major category of forest disturbance globally. However, the resulting impacts on evapotranspiration (ET), and especially hydrological partitioning between the abiotic (evaporation) and biotic (transpiration) components of total ET, are not well constrained. As a result, we combined remote sensing, eddy covariance, and hydrological modeling approaches to determine the effects of bark beetle outbreak on ET and its partitioning at multiple scales throughout the Southern Rocky Mountain Ecoregion (SRME), USA. At the eddy covariance measurement scale, 85 % of the forest was affected by beetles, and water year ET as a fraction of precipitation (P) decreased by 30 % relative to a control site, with 31 % greater reductions in growing season transpiration relative to total ET. At the ecoregion scale, satellite remote sensing masked to areas of >80 % tree mortality showed corresponding ET/P reductions of 9–15 % that occurred 6–8 years post-disturbance, and indicated that the majority of the total reduction occurred during the growing season; the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model showed an associated 9–18 % increase in the ecoregion runoff ratio. Long-term (16–18 year) ET and vegetation mortality datasets extend the length of previously published analyses and allowed for clear characterization of the forest recovery period. During that time, transpiration recovery outpaced total ET recovery, which was lagged in part due to persistently reduced winter sublimation, and there was associated evidence of increasing late summer vegetation moisture stress. Overall, comparison of three independent methods and two partitioning approaches demonstrated a net negative impact of bark beetles on ET, and a relatively greater negative impact on transpiration, following bark beetle outbreak in the SRME.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Derivations of the Total Radiation Belt Electron Content

Abstract We present multiple derivations of the Total Radiation Belt Electron Content (TRBEC), an indicator of the global number of electrons that instantaneously occupy the radiation belts. Derived from electron flux measurements, the TRBEC reduces the spatial information into a scalar quantity that concisely describes global aspects of the system. This index provides a simple, global, and long‐term assessment of the radiation belts that enables systematic analysis. In this work, we examine the TRBEC using the adiabatic invariants of which has been used in previous articles as this coordinate system removes reversible adiabatic effects. We then introduce a new expression to compute the TRBEC using the non‐adiabatic coordinates of , relevant in the contexts of energetic electron precipitation, chorus, and hiss scattering where adiabatic invariant quantities are no longer conserved. From both expressions of the TRBEC we demonstrate that an erroneous factor of that appeared in previous works using the adiabatic derivation led to an overestimate of the reported electron populations. In addition, we quantify electron loss in the outer radiation belt via a case study using the Van Allen Probes data over a 20‐day period from March 2013 specifying particle populations both in terms of the aforementioned adiabatic and non‐adiabatic variables. The total number of electrons in the outer radiation belt reached upwards of electrons at the peak of the storm, a rest mass of roughly 10 g.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elastic deformation as a tool to investigate watershed storage connectivity

Storage-discharge relationships and dynamic changes in storage connectivity remain key unknowns in understanding and predicting watershed behavior. In this study, we use Global Positioning System measurements of load-induced Earth surface displacement as a proxy for total water storage change in four climatologically diverse mountain watersheds in the western United States. Comparing total water storage estimates with stream-connected storage derived from hydrograph analysis, we find that each of the investigated watersheds exhibits a characteristic seasonal pattern of connection and disconnection between total and stream-connected storage. We investigate how the degree and timing of watershed-scale connectivity is related to the timing of precipitation and seasonal changes in dominant hydrologic processes. Our results show that elastic deformation of the Earth due to water loading is a powerful new tool for elucidating dynamic storage connectivity and watershed discharge response across scales in space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Amazon Water Cycle: Perspectives from Water Budget Closure and Ocean Salinity

Global and regional water cycle includes precipitation, water vapor divergence, and change of column water vapor in the atmosphere, and land surface evapotranspiration, terrestrial water storage change, and river discharge, which is linked to ocean salinity near the river mouth. The water cycle is a crucial component of the Earth system, and numerous studies have addressed its individual components (e.g., precipitation). Here we assess, for the first time, if remote sensing and reanalysis datasets can accurately and self-consistently portray the Amazon water cycle. This is further assisted with satellite ocean salinity measurements near the mouth of the Amazon River. The widely used practice of taking the mean of an ensemble of datasets to represent water cycle components (e.g., precipitation) can produce large biases in water cycle closure. Additionally, closure is achieved with only a small subset of data combinations (e.g., ERA5 precipitation and evapotranspiration plus GRACE satellite terrestrial water storage), which rules out the lower precipitation and higher evapotranspiration estimates, providing valuable constraints on assessments of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and their ratio. The common approach of using the Óbidos stream gauge (located hundreds of kilometers from the river mouth) multiplied by a constant (1.25) to represent the entire Amazon discharge is found to misrepresent the seasonal cycle, and this can affect the apparent influence of Amazon discharge on tropical Atlantic salinity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

X-BASE: the first terrestrial carbon and water flux products from an extended data-driven scaling framework, FLUXCOM-X

Mapping in situ eddy covariance measurements of terrestrial land–atmosphere fluxes to the globe is a key method for diagnosing the Earth system from a data-driven perspective. We describe the first global products (called X-BASE) from a newly implemented upscaling framework, FLUXCOM-X, representing an advancement from the previous generation of FLUXCOM products in terms of flexibility and technical capabilities. The X-BASE products are comprised of estimates of CO 2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and for the first time a novel, fully data-driven global transpiration product (ETT), at high spatial (0.05°) and temporal (hourly) resolution. X-BASE estimates the global NEE at −5.75 ± 0.33 Pg C yr −1 for the period 2001–2020, showing a much higher consistency with independent atmospheric carbon cycle constraints compared to the previous versions of FLUXCOM. The improvement of global NEE was likely only possible thanks to the international effort to increase the precision and consistency of eddy covariance collection and processing pipelines, as well as to the extension of the measurements to more site years resulting in a wider coverage of bioclimatic conditions. However, X-BASE global net ecosystem exchange shows a very low interannual variability, which is common to state-of-the-art data-driven flux products and remains a scientific challenge. With 125 ± 2.1 Pg C yr −1 for the same period, X-BASE GPP is slightly higher than previous FLUXCOM estimates, mostly in temperate and boreal areas. X-BASE evapotranspiration amounts to 74.7×10 3 ± 0.9×10 3 km 3 globally for the years 2001–2020 but exceeds precipitation in many dry areas, likely indicating overestimation in these regions. On average 57 % of evapotranspiration is estimated to be transpiration, in good agreement with isotope-based approaches, but higher than estimates from many land surface models. Despite considerable improvements to the previous upscaling products, many further opportunities for development exist. Pathways of exploration include methodological choices in the selection and processing of eddy covariance and satellite observations, their ingestion into the framework, and the configuration of machine learning methods. For this, the new FLUXCOM-X framework was specifically designed to have the necessary flexibility to experiment, diagnose, and converge to more accurate global flux estimates.

Nelson, Jacob A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Drought on Ecohydrology of Southern California Grassland and Shrubland

Abstract Through their rooting profiles and water demands, plants affect the distribution of water in the soil profile. Simultaneously, soil water content controls plant development and interactions within and between plant communities. These plant-soil water feedbacks might vary across plant communities with different rooting depths and species composition. In semiarid environments, understanding these differences will be essential to predict how ecosystems will respond to drought, which may become more frequent and severe with climate change. In this study, we tested how plant-soil water feedbacks responded to drought in two contrasting ecosystem types—grassland and shrubland—in the coastal foothills of southern California. During years 5–8 of an ongoing precipitation manipulation experiment, we measured changes in plant communities and soil moisture up to 2 m depth. We observed different water use patterns in grassland and shrubland communities with distinct plant functional types and water use strategies. Drought treatment did not affect perennial, deep-rooted shrubs because they could access deep soil water pools. However, mid-rooted shrubs were sensitive to drought and experienced decreased productivity and die-off. As a result, water content actually increased with drought at soil depths from 50–150 cm. In grassland, biomass production by annual species, including annual grasses and forbs, declined with drought, resulting in lower water uptake from the surface soil layer. An opportunistic “live fast, die young“ life strategy allowed these species to recover quickly once water availability increased. Our results show how drought interacts with plant community composition to affect the soil water balance of semiarid ecosystems, information that could be integrated into global scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Satellite-based evaluation of AeroCom model bias in biomass burning regions

Global models are widely used to simulate biomass burning aerosol (BBA). Exhaustive evaluations on model representation of aerosol distributions and properties are fundamental to assess health and climate impacts of BBA. Here we conducted a comprehensive comparison of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project model simulations with satellite observations. A total of 59 runs by 18 models from three AeroCom Phase-III experiments (i.e., biomass burning emissions, CTRL16, and CTRL19) and 14 satellite products of aerosols were used in the study. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm was investigated during the fire season over three key fire regions reflecting different fire dynamics (i.e., deforestation-dominated Amazon, Southern Hemisphere Africa where savannas are the key source of emissions, and boreal forest burning in boreal North America). The 14 satellite products were first evaluated against AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations, with large uncertainties found. But these uncertainties had small impacts on the model evaluation that was dominated by modeling bias. Through a comparison with Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances measurements with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties algorithm (POLDER-GRASP), we found that the modeled AOD values were biased by –93 % to 152 %, with most models showing significant underestimations even for the state-of-the-art aerosol modeling techniques (i.e., CTRL19). By scaling up BBA emissions, the negative biases in modeled AOD were significantly mitigated, although it yielded only negligible improvements in the correlation between models and observations, and the spatial and temporal variations in AOD biases did not change much. For models in CTRL16 and CTRL19, the large diversity in modeled AOD was in almost equal measures caused by diversity in emissions, lifetime, and the mass extinction coefficient (MEC). We found that in the AeroCom ensemble, BBA lifetime correlated significantly with particle deposition (as expected) and in turn correlated strongly with precipitation. Additional analysis based on Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aerosol profiles suggested that the altitude of the aerosol layer in the current models was generally too low, which also contributed to the bias in modeled lifetime. Modeled MECs exhibited significant correlations with the Ångström exponent (AE, an indicator of particle size). Comparisons with the POLDER-GRASP-observed AE suggested that the models tended to overestimate the AE (underestimated particle size), indicating a possible underestimation of MECs in models. The hygroscopic growth in most models generally agreed with observations and might not explain the overall underestimation of modeled AOD. Our results imply that current global models contain biases in important aerosol processes for BBA (e.g., emissions, removal, and optical properties) that remain to be addressed in future research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrological analysis in watersheds with a variable-resolution global climate model (VR-CESM)

Traditionally, watershed-scale hydrology is simulated by distributed hydrological models with offline meteorological forcing data, or by regional regional climate models that link atmospheric and land hydrology interactions. Global climate models (GCMs) are rarely used to study watershed-scale hydrology due to the relatively coarse grid resolution, computationally expensive downscaling, and simplified physical processes. Recently, however, watershed-scale hydrology analysis has become possible in GCMs due to the development of variable-resolution GCMs that dynamically couple the hydrological processes between atmosphere and land systems at fine resolutions in selected regions and coarse resolution elsewhere. In this study, we used the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) with refined-resolution (14 km) in the western U.S. and eastern China to evaluate watershed-scale hydrology. Furthermore, we compared the historical VR-CESM outputs with gauge measurements and other hydrological models (e.g., National Water Model in the U.S.) and calibrated the subsurface runoff capacities in four mountainous watersheds. An RCP8.5 projection from 2007 to 2050 is used to estimate the impact of changing precipitation and snow climatology on watershed hydrology. We also analyzed the long-term runoff variability and the possibility of extreme runoff events as simulated by the VR-CESM. Although calibration is not possible in larger-scale watersheds, VR-CESM simulates the long-term annual variability of watersheds and provides insights on climate change impacts on hydrology. We conclude that refined-resolution VR-CESM can be used for watershed-scale hydrology analysis to understand water resources and water balance, in addition to traditional watershed-scale hydrological models. It enables hydrological analysis at multiple watersheds in one simulation and can help understand the two-way dynamics between land surface hydrology and atmospheric processes, and is especially practical for projecting climate change impacts. However, it is challenging to apply VR-CESM for hydrologic analysis in regulated watersheds as human factors (e.g., pumping, irrigation, water diversion) have not been fully addressed in VR-CESM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗