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At least 91 records · Page 5

Assessing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions over the global ocean

How clouds respond to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial era. This uncertainty limits our ability to predict equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)—the equilibrium global warming following a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 . Here, we use satellite observations to quantify relationships between sulfate aerosols and low-level clouds while carefully controlling for meteorology. We then combine the relationships with estimates of the change in sulfate concentration since about 1850 to constrain the associated radiative forcing. We estimate that the cloud-mediated radiative forcing from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is − 1.11 ± 0.43 W m −2 over the global ocean (95% confidence). This constraint implies that ECS is likely between 2.9 and 4.5 K (66% confidence). Our results indicate that aerosol forcing is less uncertain and ECS is probably larger than the ranges proposed by recent climate assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Downscaling Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model Precipitation Simulations over Africa Using Bias-Corrected Lateral and Lower Boundary Conditions

A prequel study showed that dynamic downscaling using a regional climate model (RCM) over Africa improved the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model (GISS AOGCM: ModelE) simulation of June–September rainfall patterns over Africa. The current study applies bias corrections to the lateral and lower boundary data from the AOGCM driving the RCM, based on the comparison of a 30-year simulation to the actual climate. The analysis examines the horizontal pattern of June–September total accumulated precipitation, the time versus latitude evolution of zonal mean West Africa (WA) precipitation (showing monsoon onset timing), and the latitude versus altitude cross-section of zonal winds over WA (showing the African Easterly Jet and the Tropical Easterly Jet). The study shows that correcting for excessively warm AOGCM Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) improves the simulation of key features, whereas applying 30-year mean bias corrections to atmospheric variables driving the RCM at the lateral boundaries does not improve the RCM simulations. We suggest that AOGCM climate projections for Africa should benefit from downscaling by nesting an RCM that has demonstrated skill in simulating African climate, driven with bias-corrected SST.

West African monsoon↗

Spatio–Temporal Coarse–Graining Decomposition of the Global Ocean Geostrophic Kinetic Energy

We expand on a recent determination of the first global energy spectrum of the ocean’s surface geostrophic circulation using a coarse-graining (CG) method. We compare spectra from CG to those from spherical harmonics by treating land in a manner consistent with the boundary conditions. While the two methods yield qualitatively consistent domain-averaged results, spherical harmonics spectra are too noisy at gyre-scales (> 1000 km). More importantly, spherical harmonics are inherently global and cannot provide local information connecting scales with currents geographically. CG shows that the extra-tropics mesoscales (100–500 km) have a root-mean-square (rms) velocity of ~15 cm/s, which increases to ~30–40 cm/s locally in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio and to ~16–28 cm/s in the ACC. There is notable hemispheric asymmetry in mesoscale energy-per-area, which is higher in the north due to continental boundaries. We estimate that ≈25–50% of total geostrophic energy is at scales smaller than 100 km, and is un(der)-resolved by pre-SWOT satellite products. Spectra of the time-mean circulation show that most of its energy (up to 70%) resides in stationary eddies with characteristic scales smaller than (< 500 km). This highlights the preponderance of ‘standing’ small-scale structures in the global ocean due to the temporally coherent forcing by boundaries. By coarse-graining in space and time, we compute the first spatio-temporal global spectrum of geostrophic circulation from AVISO and NEMO. These spectra show that every length-scale evolves over a wide range of time-scales with a consistent peak at ≈200 km and ≈2–3 weeks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Low Molecular Weight Dissolved Organic Carbon: Aging, Compositional Changes, and Selective Utilization During Global Ocean Circulation

The composition and cycling dynamics of marine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) have received increased interest in recent years; however, little research has focused on the refractory, low molecular weight (LMW) component that makes up the majority of this massive C pool. In this study, we measured stable isotopic (δ 13 C), radioisotopic (Δ 14 C), and compositional (C/N, 13 C solid-state NMR) properties of separately isolated high molecular weight (HMW) and LMW DOC fractions collected using a coupled ultrafiltration and solid phase extraction approach from throughout the water column in the North Central Pacific and Central North Atlantic. The selective isolation of LMW DOC material allowed the first investigation of the composition and cycling of a previously elusive fraction of the DOC pool. The structural composition of the LMW DOC material was homogeneous throughout the water column and closely matched carboxylic-rich alicyclic material that has been proposed as a major component of the marine refractory DOC pool. Examination of offsets in the measured parameters between the deep waters of the two basins provides the first direct assessment of changes in the properties of this material with aging and utilization during ocean circulation. While our direct measurements largely confirm hypotheses regarding the relative recalcitrance of HMW and LMW DOC, we also demonstrate a number of novel observations regarding the removal and addition of DOC during global ocean circulation, including additions of fresh carbohydrate-like HMW DOC to the deep ocean and large-scale removal of both semilabile HMW and recalcitrant LMW DOC.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Observed Sensitivity of Low-Cloud Radiative Effects to Meteorological Perturbations over the Global Oceans

Understanding how marine low clouds and their radiative effects respond to changing meteorological conditions is crucial to constrain low-cloud feedbacks to greenhouse warming and internal climate variability. In this paper, we use observations to quantify the low-cloud radiative response to meteorological perturbations over the global oceans to shed light on physical processes governing low-cloud and planetary radiation budget variability in different climate regimes. We assess the independent effect of perturbations in sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength, horizontal surface temperature advection, 700-hPa relative humidity, 700-hPa vertical velocity, and near-surface wind speed. Stronger inversions and stronger cold advection greatly enhance low-level cloudiness and planetary albedo in eastern ocean stratocumulus and midlatitude regimes. Warming of the sea surface drives pronounced reductions of eastern ocean stratocumulus cloud amount and optical depth, and hence reflectivity, but has a weaker and more variable impact on low clouds in the tropics and middle latitudes. By reducing entrainment drying, higher free-tropospheric relative humidity enhances low-level cloudiness. At low latitudes, where cold advection destabilizes the boundary layer, stronger winds enhance low-level cloudiness; by contrast, wind speed variations have weak influence at midlatitudes where warm advection frequently stabilizes the marine boundary layer, thus inhibiting vertical mixing. These observational constraints provide a framework for understanding and evaluating marine low-cloud feedbacks and their simulation by models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Contamination, misuse and abuse of the global oceans leading to ecosystem damage and destruction, health consequences and international conflict

Unregulated uses of the oceans may threaten the global ecological balance, alter plant and animal life and significantly impact the global climatic systems. Recent plans to locate large scale structures on the oceans and to exploit the mineral riches of the seas pose even greater risk to the ecological system. Finally, increasing use of the oceans for large scale transport greatly enhances the probability of collision, polluting spills and international conflict.

Source record↗

Significant Findings: Tracking the SeaWiFS Record with a Coupled Physical/Biogeochemical/Radiative Model of the Global Oceans

The Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) has observed 2.5 years of routine global chlorophyll observations from space. The mission was launched into a record El Nino event, which eventually gave way to one of the most intensive and longest-lasting La Nina events ever recorded. The SeaWiFS chlorophyll record captured the response of ocean phytoplankton to these significant events in the tropical Indo-Pacific basins, but also indicated significant interannual variability unrelated to the El Nino/La Nina events. This included large variability in the North Atlantic and Pacific basins, in the North Central and equatorial Atlantic, and milder patterns in the North Central Pacific. This SeaWiFS record was tracked with a coupled physical/biogeochemical/radiative model of the global oceans using near-real-time forcing data such as wind stresses, sea surface temperatures, and sea ice. This provided an opportunity to offer physically and biogeochemically meaningful explanations of the variability observed in the SeaWiFS data set, since the causal mechanisms and interrelationships of the model are completely understood. The coupled model was able to represent the seasonal distributions of chlorophyll during the SeaWiFS era, and was capable of differentiating among the widely different processes and dynamics occurring in the global oceans. The model was also reasonably successful in representing the interannual signal, especially when it was large, such as, the El Nino and La Nina events in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The model provided different phytoplankton group responses for the different events in these regions: diatoms were predominant in the tropical Pacific during the La Nina but other groups were predominant during El Nino. The opposite condition occurred in the tropical Indian Ocean. Both situations were due to the different responses of the basins to El Nino. The interannual variability in the North Atlantic, which was exhibited in SeaWiFS data as a decline in the spring/summer bloom in 1999 relative to 1998, resulted in the model from a more slowly shoaling mixed layer, allowing herbivore populations to keep pace with increasing phytoplankton populations. However, several aspects of the interannual cycle were not well-represented by the model. Explanations ranged from inherent model deficiencies, to monthly averaging of forcing fields, to biases in SeaWiFS atmospheric correction procedures.

Watson, Gregg W.↗

Sensitivity of Global Ocean Deoxygenation to Vertical and Isopycnal Mixing in an Ocean Biogeochemistry Model

Large-scale loss of oxygen under global warming is termed “ocean deoxygenation” and is caused by the imbalance between physical supply and biological consumption of oxygen in the ocean interior. Significant progress has been made in the theoretical understanding of ocean deoxygenation; however, many questions remain unresolved. The oxygen change in the tropical thermocline is poorly understood, with diverging projections among different models. Physical oxygen supply is controlled by a suite of processes that transport oxygen-rich surface waters into the interior ocean, which is expected to weaken due to increasing stratification under global warming. Using a numerical model and a series of sensitivity experiments, the role of ocean mixing is examined in terms of effects on the mean state and the response to a transient warming. Both vertical and horizontal (isopycnal) mixing coefficients are systematically varied over a wide range, and the resulting oxygen distributions in equilibrated and transient simulations are examined. The spatial patterns of oxygen loss are sensitive to both vertical and isopycnal mixing, and the sign of tropical oxygen trend under climate warming can reverse depending on the choice of mixing parameters. An elevated level of isopycnal mixing disrupts the vertical advective-diffusive balance of the tropical thermocline, increasing the mean state oxygen as well as the magnitude of the transient oxygen decline. These results provide first-order explanations for the diverging behaviors of simulated tropical oxygen with respect to ocean mixing parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Low-frequency variability of sea level as related to the heat balance of global oceans

The TOPEX/POSEIDON mission will determine global changes of sea level with unprecedented accuracy. Our main objective is the use TOPEX/POSEIDON data, concurrent in situ ocean measurements, and other satellite observations to document and diagnose physical processes by which heat is exchanged with the atmosphere, stored in the ocean, or transported by ocean circulation. During the prelaunch period, our objectives are to advise the project on an improved method of retrieving sea level data and prepare for the application of TOPEX/POSEIDON data by developing a diagnostic model using in situ measurements and altimeter observations from Geosat and the European Remote Sensing satellite.

Liu, W. Timothy↗

Internally Consistent MODIS Estimate of Aerosol Clear-Sky Radiative Effect Over the Global Oceans

Modern satellite remote sensing, and in particular the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), offers a measurement-based pathway to estimate global aerosol radiative effects and aerosol radiative forcing. Over the Oceans, MODIS retrieves the total aerosol optical thickness, but also reports which combination of the 9 different aerosol models was used to obtain the retrieval. Each of the 9 models is characterized by a size distribution and complex refractive index, which through Mie calculations correspond to a unique set of single scattering albedo, assymetry parameter and spectral extinction for each model. The combination of these sets of optical parameters weighted by the optical thickness attributed to each model in the retrieval produces the best fit to the observed radiances at the top of the atmosphere. Thus the MODIS Ocean aerosol retrieval provides us with (1) An observed distribution of global aerosol loading, and (2) An internally-consistent, observed, distribution of aerosol optical models that when used in combination will best represent the radiances at the top of the atmosphere. We use these two observed global distributions to initialize the column climate model by Chou and Suarez to calculate the aerosol radiative effect at top of the atmosphere and the radiative efficiency of the aerosols over the global oceans. We apply the analysis to 3 years of MODIS retrievals from the Terra satellite and produce global and regional, seasonally varying, estimates of aerosol radiative effect over the clear-sky oceans.

Remer, Lorraine A.↗

Top-of-Atmosphere Direct Radiative Effect of Aerosols over Global Oceans from Merged CERES and MODIS Observations

The direct radiative effect of aerosols (DREA) is defined as the difference between radiative fluxes in the absence and presence of aerosols. In this study, the direct radiative effect of aerosols is estimated for 46 months (March, 2000 to December, 2003) of merged CERES and MODIS Terra global measurements over ocean. This analysis includes the contribution from clear regions in both clear and partly cloudy CERES footprints. MODIS-CERES narrow-to-broadband regressions are developed to convert clear-sky MODIS narrowband radiances to broadband SW radiances, and CERES clear-sky Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) are used to estimate the corresponding TOA radiative fluxes needed to determine the DREA. Clear-sky MODIS pixels are identified using two independent cloud masks: (i) the NOAA-NESDIS algorithm used for inferring aerosol properties from MODIS on the CERES Single Scanner Footprint TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SSF) product (NOAA-SSF); and (ii) the standard algorithm used by the MODIS aerosol group to produce the MODO4 product (MODO4). Over global oceans, direct radiative cooling by aerosols for clear scenes identified from MODO4 is estimated to be 5.5 W m-2, compared to 3.8 W m-2 for clear scenes from NOAA-SSF. Regionally, differences are largest in areas affected by dust aerosol, such as oceanic regions adjacent to the Saharan and Saudi Arabian deserts, and in northern Pacific Ocean regions influenced by dust transported from Asia. The net total-sky (clear and cloudy) DREA is negative (cooling) and is estimated to be -2.0 W m-2 from MOD04, and -1.6 W m-2 from NOAA-SSF. The DREA is shown to have pronounced seasonal cycles in the Northern Hemisphere and large year-to-year fluctuations near deserts. However, no systematic trend in deseasonalized anomalies of the DREA is observed over the 46-month time series considered.

Loeb, N. G.↗

Satellite Altimetry for a Global Ocean Observing System

Space-age technologies have made satellite remote sensing a powerful new tool to study the Earth on a global scale. However, the opacity of the ocean to electromagnetic sensing has limited spaceborne measurements to the properties of the surface layer of the ocean (such as sea surface temperature and color). The radar altimetric measurement of the height of the sea surface relative to the geoid, the dynamic topography of the ocean, is a very useful quantity for studying the circulation of the ocean. The ability of measuring dynamic topography from space makes satellite altimetry a uniquely useful remote sensing technique because dynamic topography reflects oceanic processes not only at the surface but at depths as well. A simple analysis shows that a one centimeter tilt in the dynamic topography is associated with a mass transport of 1-7 Sv (1Sv= 1 million tons per second) in the open ocean depending on the vertical distribution of current velocity. Such a magnitude is an appreciable fraction of the transport of the Florida Current (circa 30 Sv), for instance. TOPEX/POSEIDON has demonstrated the capability of measuring the time variation of sea level with accuracy approaching to 2 cm when the data are averaged over boxes with several hundred kilometers on each side. The data set has been used for studying ocean circulation phenomena with a wide range of scales, ranging from fast-changing barotropic variability to seasonal and interannual variability such as El Nino and La Nina. The long record of precise measurement of global sea level has also showed great promise for monitoring the variation of mean sea level, an effective indicator of global climate change. Continuation of satellite altimetry missions with capability matching or better than that of TOPEX/POSEIDON should be included as a key component of a Global Ocean Observing System. NASA and CNES have committed to continuing the measurement of TOPEX/POSEIDON with a series of follow-on missions called Jason. The first of the series, Jason-1, is scheduled for launch in May, 2000. Such a series of missions will provide a key data stream for both research and practical applications and benefit the objectives of global programs such as CLIVAR and GODAE.

Fu, Lee-Lueng↗

Global Ocean Primary Production Trends in the Modern Ocean Color Satellite Record (1998-2015)

Ocean primary production (PP), representing the uptake of inorganic carbon through photosynthesis, supports marine life and affects carbon exchange with the atmosphere. It is difficult to ascertain its magnitude, variability, and trends due to our inability to measure it directly at large scales. Yet it is paramount for understanding changes in marine health, fisheries, and the global carbon cycle. Using assimilation of ocean color satellite data into an ocean biogeochemical model, we estimate that global net ocean PP has experienced a small but significant decline −0.8 PgC/y (−2.1%) per decade (P < 0.05) in the 18-year satellite record from 1998 to 2015. This decline is associated with shallowing surface mixed layer depth (−2.4% per decade) and decreasing nitrate concentrations (−3.2% per decade). Relative contributions to PP by various types of ocean phytoplankton have changed, with decreases in production by intermediate-sized phytoplankton represented by chlorophytes (−14.3% per decade). This is partially compensated by increases from the unique, more nutrient-efficient, coccolithophores (8.4% per decade). Geographically, the North and Equatorial Indian Oceans are responsible for much of the decline in PP, falling 0.16 and 0.69 PgC/y per decade, respectively. Reduced production by large, fast-growing diatoms along with chlorophytes characterizes the decline here. In contrast, increases in PP are found in the North and North Central Pacific. The increases here are led by chlorophytes in the North Pacific and the small cyanobacteria in the North Central Pacific. These results suggest that the multi-decadal satellite observational record, coupled with an underlying representation of marine biodiversity in a model, can monitor the uptake of carbon by phytoplankton and that changes, although small, are occurring in the global oceans.

Watson W Gregg↗

Human-induced changes to the global ocean water masses and their time of emergence

The World Ocean is rapidly changing, with global and regional modification of temperature and salinity, resulting in widespread and irreversible impacts. While the most pronounced observed temperature and salinity changes are located in the upper ocean, changes in water masses at depth have been identified and will probably strengthen in the future. In this study, using 11 climate models, we define when anthropogenic temperature and salinity changes are expected to emerge from natural variability in the ocean interior along density surfaces. The models predict that in 2020, 20–55% of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian basins have an emergent anthropogenic signal; reaching 40–65% in 2050 and 55–80% in 2080. The well-ventilated Southern Ocean water masses emerge very rapidly, as early as the 1980–1990s, while the Northern Hemisphere water masses emerge in the 2010–2030s. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining and augmenting an ocean observing system capable of detecting and monitoring persistent anthropogenic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Decoupling of Iron and Phosphate in the Global Ocean

Iron is an essential micronutrient for marine phytoplankton, limiting their growth in high nutrient, low chlorophyll regions of the ocean. I use a hierarchy of ocean circulation and biogeochemistry models to understand controls on global iron distribution. I formulate a mechanistic model of iron cycling which includes scavenging onto sinking particles and complexation with an organic ligand. The iron cycle is coupled to a phosphorus cycling model. Iron's aeolian source is prescribed. In the context of a highly idealized multi-box model scheme, the model can be brought into consistency with the relatively sparse ocean observations of iron in the oceans. This biogeochemical scheme is also implemented in a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model. This model also successfully reproduces the broad regional patterns of iron and phosphorus. In particular, the high macronutrient concentrations of the Southern Ocean result from iron limitation in the model. Due to the potential ability of iron to change the efficiency of the carbon pump in the remote Southern Ocean, I study Southern Ocean surface phosphate response to increased aeolian dust flux. My box model and GCM results suggest that a global ten fold increase in dust flux can support a phosphate drawdown of 0.25-0.5 micromolar.

GLOBAL OCEAN MODEL↗