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Tropospheric Response to Estimated Spectrally Discriminated Solar Forcing Over the Past 500 Years

The GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM) is used to investigate the effect of estimated solar irradiance changes on climate for the past 500 years. This model is employed to allow the impact of UV variations on the stratosphere to affect the troposphere via wave-mean flow interactions. Multiple experiments are done with only a total solar irradiance change (peaking at 0.2 percent from the Maunder Minimum to today); with estimated spectrally-varying irradiance changes (i.e., peak changes of 0.7 percent in the UV, 0.2 percent in the visible and near IR; and 0.07 percent in the IR greater than 1 micron); and the spectrally-varying changes in conjunction with model calculated ozone responses in the stratosphere. Results of the varying temperature patterns and radiation response will be discussed. Of interest is whether the different methods of forcing the solar-induced climate change produce different spatial surface temperature signatures, particularly ones that can be differentiated from greenhouse gas warming. In preliminary tests, spectrally-varying solar forcing with induced ozone changes for solar maximum minus solar minimum conditions results in a temperature signal that is primarily at high latitudes.The high latitude response arises due to solar/ozone-induced alterations in the stratospheric wind field that affect planetary wave propagation from the troposphere, and alter tropospheric advection patterns. In contrast, forcing by total solar irradiance changes produces significant response at low and subtropical latitudes as well, driven by water vapor and cloud feedbacks to the radiative perturbation.

Rind, David↗

Scaling Laws for Impact Craters in Water

Tsunami waves from asteroid impacts into water are of concern from asteroids in the 200 m to 1 km diameter range because this spans the range from asteroids that will likely hit the surface and not airburst, but also be small enough that global climate effects will hopefully be minimal. Current estimates of impact tsunamis depend on either hydrocode simulations or on semi-analytical models. Unfortunately there is significant disagreement between these methods. One of the main reasons for the disparity is that the semi-analytical models such as Holsapple (1993) rely on experimental impacts into deep water. However for asteroids in the 200 - 1000 m range even the deep ocean basins can appear as shallow water impacts where the crater formed in the water reaches all the way to the sea floor. Another reason for the disparity arises from the linear interpolation of data across many orders of magnitude difference between Froude number (ratio of kinetic to gravitational energy) used in the laboratory experiments and what would be seen in an asteroid impact. The Gault & Sonett (1982) experiment shot millimeter sized glass spheres into water at 1 to 6 km/s and the Olevson (1969) experiment dropped millimeter sized water drops at a few meters per second. The goal of this work was to fill in the gaps and conduct experiments and simulations at the correct Froude numbers of interest, and in both deep and shallow water, to help resolve the disparity and extend the semi-analytical models.

Robertson, Darrel↗

Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing during Boreal Spring

The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on numerical simulations with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of Clouds with the Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS), using aerosol forcing functions derived from the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The authors find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excite a planetary-scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature, and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, that is, South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Significant atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over northern Africa and the Middle East) and black carbon (over Southeast Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentrations are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection pattern driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes associated with the regional circulations. The surface temperature signature associated with the aerosol-induced teleconnection bears striking resemblance to the spatial pattern of observed long-term trend in surface temperature over Eurasia. Additionally, the boreal spring wave train pattern is similar to that reported by Fukutomi et al. associated with the boreal summer precipitation seesaw between eastern and western Siberia. The results of this study raise the possibility that global aerosol forcing during boreal spring may play an important role in spawning atmospheric teleconnections that affect regional and global climates.

Kim, Maeng-Ki↗

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Climate Observations and Projections - Chapter 1

During 2013 and 2014, numerous international (IPCC, 2013) and national (Melillo et al., 2014; Gordon, 2014) reports have concluded that human activities are changing the climate, leading to increased vulnerability and risk. Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuel burning, industrial activity, and land use changes have led to a 40% increase in heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2), and an approximately 150% increase in methane (CH4), another powerful greenhouse gas (GHG), has been observed. Global temperatures have increased by close to 1 C since 1880 as the upper oceans have warmed and polar ice has retreated. These and other climate changes are projected to accelerate as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. In the coming decades, climate change is extremely likely to bring warmer temperatures in the New York metropolitan region (see Box. 1.1 and Fig.1.1 for key definitions and terms). Heat waves are very likely to increase; total annual precipitation will likely increase and brief, intense rainstorms are very likely to increase. Because of incomplete knowledge about exactly how much climate change will occur, choosing among policies for reducing future damages requires prudent risk management (Yohe and Leichenko, 2010; Kunreuther et al., 2013). Given differing risk tolerances among stakeholders, a risk management approach allows for a range of possible climate change outcomes to be examined with associated uncertainties surrounding their likelihoods. The New York City Panel on Climate Change 2 (NPCC2) projections can be used to inform planning across multiple governmental scales (e.g., city, county, state) in the New York metropolitan region. Such coordinated efforts can serve as test cases for successful local, state, and federal coordination for integrated climate adaptation initiatives. This chapter describes the global climate system, and presents observed temperature and precipitation trends and projections for the region. Chapter 2 (NPCC, 2015) focuses on sea level rise and possible changes in coastal storms. Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 (NPCC, 2015) describe efforts to better understand the region's vulnerability to coastal flooding during coastal storms. The treatment of likelihood related to the NPCC projections is similar to that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (IPCC, 2007; 2013), with six likelihood categories (Box 1.1 and Fig. 1.1). The assignment of climate hazards to these categories is based on observed data, global climate model simulations, published literature, and expert judgment.

climate change↗

The GISS global climate-middle atmosphere model. I - Model structure and climatology

A coupled global climate/middle atmosphere model (GCMAM) is developed by extending the Hansen et al. (1983) GISS global climate model to include the middle atmosphere up to 85 km. The model includes numerical solutions of the primitive equations, calculations of the radiative and surface fluxes, and a complete hydrologic cycle with convective and cloud-cover parameterizations. In addition, a parameterized gravity wave drag cycle is incorporated, in which gravity-wave momentum fluxes due to flow over topography, wind shear, and convection are calculated at each grid box, using theoretical relationships between the grid-scale variables and expected source strengths. The results of the GCMAM demonstrate that the model produces a reasonable simulation of the stratosphere. It is shown that the improvements over the previous version were achieved largely through the incorporation of the parameterized gravity wave drag.

Rind, D.↗

Life cycles of transient planetary waves

In recent years there has been an increasing effort devoted to understanding the physical and dynamical processes that govern the global-scale circulation of the atmosphere. This effort has been motivated, in part, from: (1) a wealth of new satellite data; (2) an urgent need to assess the potential impact of chlorofluorocarbons on our climate; (3) an inadequate understanding of the interactions between the troposphere and stratosphere and the role that such interactions play in short and long-term climate variability; and (4) the realization that addressing changes in our global climate requires understanding the interactions among various components of the earth system. The research currently being carried out represents an effort to address some of these issues by carrying out studies that combine radiation, ozone, seasonal thermal forcing and dynamics. Satellite and ground-based data that is already available is being used to construct basic states for our analytical and numerical models. Significant accomplishments from 1991-1992 are presented and include the following: ozone-dynamics interaction; (2) periodic local forcing and low frequency variability; and (3) steady forcing and low frequency variability.

Nathan, Terrence↗

Cloud-System Resolving Models: Status and Prospects

Cloud-system resolving models (CRM), which are based on the nonhydrostatic equations of motion and typically have a grid-spacing of about a kilometer, originated as cloud-process models in the 1970s. This paper reviews the status and prospects of CRMs across a wide range of issues, such as microphysics and precipitation; interaction between clouds and radiation; and the effects of boundary-layer and surface-processes on cloud systems. Since CRMs resolve organized convection, tropical waves and the large-scale circulation, there is the prospect for several advances in both basic knowledge of scale-interaction requisite to parameterizing mesoscale processes in climate models. In superparameterization, CRMs represent convection, explicitly replacing many of the assumptions necessary in contemporary parameterization. Global CRMs have been run on an experimental basis, giving prospect to a new generation of climate weather prediction in a decade, and climate models due course. CRMs play a major role in the retrieval of surface-rain and latent heating from satellite measurements. Finally, enormous wide dynamic ranges of CRM simulations present new challenges for model validation against observations.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Diagnosis of the GLAS climate model's stationary planetary waves using a linearized steady state model

Orography and geographically fixed heat sources which force a zonally asymmetric motion field are examined. An extensive space-time spectral analysis of the GLAS climate model (D130) response and observations are compared. An updated version of the model (D150) showed a remarkable improvement in the simulation of the standing waves. The main differences in the model code are an improved boundary layer flux computation and a more realistic specification of the global boundary conditions.

Youngblut, C.↗

Rain, Snow, Hurricanes, and Blizzards: Remote Sensing of Cloud Particles

Hurricanes, blizzards and other weather events are important to understand not only for disaster preparation, but also to track the global energy balance and to improve weather and climate forecasts. For several decades, passive radiometers and active radars on aircraft and satellites have been employed to remotely sense rain rates and the properties of liquid particles. In the past few years the relationships between frozen particles and millimeter-wave observations have become understood well enough to estimate the properties of ice in clouds. This colloquium will start with a broad background of the use of remote sensing of precipitation and then focus on recent research in the estimation of frozen cloud properties, both for ice that will eventually melt into rain and for solid precipitation falling in northern climates. The electromagnetic absorption and scattering properties of liquid rain and frozen particles will be explained. Retrieved cloud particle contents and size distributions for Hurricane Erin (2001 ) and the March 5-6, 2001 New England regional blizzard will be discussed. Future directions and challenges of this work will also be presented.

Gail Skofronick-Jackson↗

Passive Remote Sensing of Cloud Ice Particles

Hurricanes, blizzards and other weather events are important to understand not only for disaster preparation, but also to track the global energy balance and to improve weather and climate forecasts. For several decades, passive radiometers and active radars on aircraft and satellites have been employed to remotely sense rain rates and the properties of liquid particles. In the past few years the relationships between frozen particles and millimeter-wave observations have become understood well enough to estimate the properties of ice in clouds. A brief background of passive remote sensing of precipitation will be presented followed by a focused discussion of recent research at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center estimating the properties of frozen particles in clouds. The retrievals are for (1) ice that will eventually melt into rain, (2) for solid precipitation falling in northern climates, and (3) cirrus ice clouds. The electromagnetic absorption and scattering properties and differences of liquid rain versus frozen particles will be summarized for frequencies from 6 to 340+ GHz. Challenges of this work including surface emissivity variability, non-linear and under-constrained relationships, and frozen particle unknowns will be discussed. Retrieved cloud particle contents and size distributions for ice above the melting layer in hurricanes, retrieved snowfall rates for a blizzard, and cirrus ice estimates will be presented. Future directions of this work will also be described.

Skofronick-Jackson, Gail↗

Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM)

The overall goal of the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) experiment is to resolve why Polar Mesospheric Clouds form and why they vary. By measuring PMCs and the thermal, chemical and dynamical environment in which they form, we will quanti@ the connection between these clouds and the meteorology of the polar mesosphere. In the end, this will provide the basis for study of long-term variability in the mesospheric climate and its relationship to global change. The results of AIM will be a rigorous validation of predictive models that can reliably use past PMC changes and present trends as indicators of global change. The AIM goal will be achieved by measuring PMC extinction, brightness, spatial distribution, particle size distributions, gravity wave activity, dust influx to the atmosphere and precise, vertical profile measurements of temperature, H20, C&, 0 3 , C02, NO. and aerosols. These data can only be obtained by a complement of instruments on an orbiting spacecraft (S/C).

Source record↗

A Quantum Annealing Computer Team Addresses Climate Change Predictability

The near confluence of the successful launch of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory2 on July 2, 2014 and the acceptance on August 20, 2015 by Google, NASA Ames Research Center and USRA of a 1152 qubit D-Wave 2X Quantum Annealing Computer (QAC), offered an exceptional opportunity to explore the potential of this technology to address the scientific prediction of global annual carbon uptake by land surface processes. At UMBC,we have collected and processed 20 months of global Level 2 light CO2 data as well as fluorescence data. In addition we have collected ARM data at 2sites in the US and Ameriflux data at more than 20 stations. J. Dorband has developed and implemented a multi-hidden layer Boltzmann Machine (BM) algorithm on the QAC. Employing the BM, we are calculating CO2 fluxes by training collocated OCO-2 level 2 CO2 data with ARM ground station tower data to infer to infer measured CO2 flux data. We generate CO2 fluxes with a regression analysis using these BM derived weights on the level 2 CO2 data for three Ameriflux sites distinct from the ARM stations. P. Gentine has negotiated for the access of K34 Ameriflux data in the Amazon and is applying a neural net to infer the CO2 fluxes. N. Talik validated the accuracy of the BM performance on the QAC against a restricted BM implementation on the IBM Softlayer Cloud with the Nvidia co-processors utilizing the same data sets. G. Nearing and K. Harrison have extended the GSFC LIS model with the NCAR Noah photosynthetic parameterization and have run a 10 year global prediction of the net ecosystem exchange. C. Pellisier is preparing a BM implementation of the Kalman filter data assimilation of CO2 fluxes. At UMBC, R. Prouty is conducting OSSE experiments with the LISNoah model on the IBM iDataPlex to simulate the impact of CO2 fluxes to improve the prediction of global annual carbon uptake. J. LeMoigne and D. Simpson have developed a neural net image registration system that will be used for MODIS ENVI and will be converted to a BM algorithm implementation on the QAC. The first integer adder has been implemented on the D-Wave 2X by A. Shehab that will perform HAAR wavelets for image compression of MODIS scenes. Finally, based on the next generations of QACs, we are preparing a 5-year performance road map on the scalability of the current QAC algorithms.

Science Data Processing↗

Development of the Joint NASA/NCAR General Circulation Model

The Data Assimilation Office at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center is collaborating with NCAR/CGD in an ambitious proposal for the development of a unified climate, numerical weather prediction, and chemistry transport model which is suitable for global data assimilation of the physical and chemical state of the Earth's atmosphere. A prototype model based on the NCAR CCM3 physics and the NASA finite-volume dynamical core has been built. A unique feature of the NASA finite-volume dynamical core is its advanced tracer transport algorithm on the floating Lagrangian control-volume coordinate. The model currently has a highly idealized ozone production/loss chemistry derived from the observed 2D (latitude-height) climatology of the recent decades. Nevertheless, the simulated horizontal wave structure of the total ozone is in good qualitative agreement with the observed (TOMS). Long term climate simulations and NWP experiments have been carried out. Current up to date status and futur! e plan will be discussed in the conference.

Lin, S.-J.↗

Relationship between circum-Arctic atmospheric wave patterns and large-scale wildfires in boreal summer

Long-term assessment of severe wildfires and associated air pollution and related climate patterns in and around the Arctic is essential for assessing healthy human life status. To examine the relationships, we analyzed the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). Our investigation based on this state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis data reveals that 13 out of the 20 months with the highest PM2.5 (corresponding to the highly elevated organic carbon in the particulate organic matter [POM] form) monthly mean mass concentration over the Arctic for 2003–2017 were all in summer (July and August), during which POM of ⩾0.5 μg/cu. m and PM2.5 were positively correlated. This correlation suggests that high PM2.5 in the Arctic is linked to large wildfire contributions and characterized by significant anticyclonic anomalies (i.e. clockwise atmospheric circulation) with anomalous surface warmth and drier conditions over Siberia and subpolar North America, in addition to Europe. A similar climate pattern was also identified through an independent regression analysis for the July and August mean data between the same atmospheric variables and the sign-reversed Scandinavian pattern index. We named this pattern of recent atmospheric circulation anomalies the circum-Arctic wave (CAW) pattern as a manifestation of eastward group-velocity propagation of stationary Rossby waves (i.e. large-scale atmospheric waves). The CAW induces concomitant development of warm anticyclonic anomalies over Europe, Siberia, Alaska, and Canada, as observed in late June 2019. Surprisingly, the extended regression analysis of the 1980–2017 period revealed that the CAW pattern was not prominent before 2003. Understanding the CAW pattern under future climate change and global warming would lead to better prediction of co-occurrences of European heatwaves and large-scale wildfires with air pollution over Siberia, Alaska, and Canada in and around the Arctic in summer.

wildfire↗

Entropy and climate. I - ERBE observations of the entropy production of the earth

An approximate method for estimating the global distributions of the entropy fluxes flowing through the upper boundary of the climate system is introduced, and an estimate of the entropy exchange between the earth and space and the entropy production of the planet is provided. Entropy fluxes calculated from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment measurements show how the long-wave entropy flux densities dominate the total entropy fluxes at all latitudes compared with the entropy flux densities associated with reflected sunlight, although the short-wave flux densities are important in the context of clear sky-cloudy sky net entropy flux differences. It is suggested that the entropy production of the planet is both constant for the 36 months of data considered and very near its maximum possible value. The mean value of this production is 0.68 x 10 exp 15 W/K, and the amplitude of the annual cycle is approximately 1 to 2 percent of this value.

Stephens, G. L.↗

Formation of Tropopause Cirrus clouds by Typhoon-induced gravity waves during the Asian Summer Monsoon: A Case Study from the BATAL 2017 Campaign

Cirrus clouds in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) have a net warming impact on Earth’s climate and they regulate the amount of water vapor entering the lower stratosphere through dehydration process near the cold-point tropopause. During the Boreal summer, Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) is an important source of cirrus clouds and humidity in the TTL owing to frequent deep convection. However, better representation of convection and TTL cirrus clouds in global climate models is needed for accurate assessment of their response to changing climate. In this study, we investigate the mechanisms involved in the formation of a tropopause cirrus cloud layer observed during the Balloon measurement campaigns of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (BATAL) over Hyderabad (17.47 °N, 78.58 °E), India on 23 August 2017. A subvisible cirrus cloud layer (optical thickness ~0.025) was detected by a backscatter sonde (COBALD) onboard a balloon near the cold-point tropopause (CPT, temperature~ -86.4 ° C, altitude~17.9 km) which was later confirmed by the CATS lidar on the ISS. Simultaneous measurements from an optical particle counter (Boulder Counter) revealed the presence of ice crystals smaller than 50 microns in this layer. The formation mechanism responsible for this tropopause cirrus is investigated using a technique combining three-dimensional back-trajectories, satellite observations, and ERA5 reanalysis data. Satellite observations revealed that the overshooting convection associated with a category-3 typhoon Hato, which hit Macau and Hong Kong on 23 August 2017 injected ice into the lower stratosphere. This caused a hydration patch that followed the ASM anticyclone subsequently moving towards Hyderabad. The presence of tropopause cirrus cloud layers in the cold temperature anomalies and updrafts along the back-trajectories indicated towards the role of typhoon-induced gravity waves in their formation. This case study highlights the role of typhoons in influencing the formation of tropopause cirrus clouds through stratospheric hydration and gravity waves in the ASM anticyclone.

Amit Kumar Pandit↗

Introduction The Role of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project

Climate impacts on agriculture are of increasing concern in both the scientific and policy communities because of the need to ensure food security for a growing population. A special challenge is posed by the changes in the frequency and intensity of heat-waves, droughts, and episodic rainstorms already underway in many parts of the world. Changes in production are directly linked to such variations in temperature and precipitation during the growing season, and often to offseason changes in weather affecting soil-water storage and availability to crops. This is not an isolated problem but one of both global and regional importance, because of impacts on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers as well as consequences for the world food trade system. This two-part set the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments is the first to be entirely devoted to AgMIP (www.agmip.org). AgMIP is a major international research program focused on climate change and agriculture. The goal of the two parts is to advance the field by providing detailed information on new simulation techniques and assessments being conducted by this program. It presents information about new methods of global and regional integrated assessment, results from agricultural regions, and adaptation strategies for maintaining food security under changing climate conditions.

security↗

Application of Local Discretization Methods in the NASA Finite-Volume General Circulation Model

We present the basic ideas of the dynamics system of the finite-volume General Circulation Model developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center for climate simulations and other applications in meteorology. The dynamics of this model is designed with emphases on conservative and monotonic transport, where the property of Lagrangian conservation is used to maintain the physical consistency of the computational fluid for long-term simulations. As the model benefits from the noise-free solutions of monotonic finite-volume transport schemes, the property of Lagrangian conservation also partly compensates the accuracy of transport for the diffusion effects due to the treatment of monotonicity. By faithfully maintaining the fundamental laws of physics during the computation, this model is able to achieve sufficient accuracy for the global consistency of climate processes. Because the computing algorithms are based on local memory, this model has the advantage of efficiency in parallel computation with distributed memory. Further research is yet desirable to reduce the diffusion effects of monotonic transport for better accuracy, and to mitigate the limitation due to fast-moving gravity waves for better efficiency.

Yeh, Kao-San↗