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DOE OSTI2020

The End of Galaxy Surveys

For nearly a century, imaging and spectroscopic surveys of galaxies have given us information about the contents of the universe. We attempt to define the logical end point of such surveys by defining not the next galaxy survey but rather the final galaxy survey at near-infrared wavelengths; this would be the galaxy survey that exhausts the information content useful for addressing extant questions. Such a survey would require incredible advances in a number of technologies, and the survey details will depend on the as yet poorly constrained properties of the earliest galaxies. Using an exposure time calculator, we define nominal surveys for extracting the useful information for three science cases: dark energy cosmology, galaxy evolution, and supernovae (SN). We define scaling relations that trade off sky background, telescope aperture, and focal plane size to allow for a survey of a given depth over a given area. For optimistic assumptions, a 280 m telescope with a marginally resolved focal plane of 20 deg 2 operating at L2 could potentially exhaust the cosmological information content of galaxies in a 10 yr survey. For galaxy evolution (making use of gravitational lensing to magnify the earliest galaxies) and SN, the same telescope would suffice. We discuss the technological advances needed to complete the last galaxy survey. While the final galaxy survey remains well outside of our technical reach today, we present scaling relations that show how we can progress toward the goal of exhausting the information content encoded in the shapes, positions, and colors of galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

JAXtronomy: A JAX port of lenstronomy

Gravitational lensing is a phenomenon where light bends around massive objects, resulting in distorted images seen by an observer. Studying gravitationally lensed systems provides insights into cosmology and astrophysics, including constraints of the expansion rate of the Universe and the distribution of dark matter. Thus, we introduce JAXtronomy, a re-implementation of the gravitational lensing software package lenstronomy (Birrer, 2021; Birrer & Amara, 2018) using JAX (Bradbury et al., 2018). JAX is a Python library that uses an accelerated linear algebra (XLA) compiler to improve the performance of computing software. Our core design principle of JAXtronomy is to maintain an identical API to that of lenstronomy. The main JAX features utilized in JAXtronomy are just-in-time compilation, which can lead to significant reductions in execution time, and automatic differentiation, which allows for the implementation of gradient-based algorithms that were previously impossible. Additionally, JAX allows code to be run on GPUs or parallelized across CPU cores, further boosting the performance of JAXtronomy.

astronomy↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DESI-Lensing Mock Challenge: large-scale cosmological analysis of 3x2-pt statistics

The current generation of large galaxy surveys will test the cosmological model by combining multiple types of observational probes. Realising the statistical promise of these new datasets requires rigorous attention to all aspects of analysis including cosmological measurements, modelling, covariance and parameter likelihood. In this paper we present the results of an end-to-end simulation study designed to test the analysis pipeline for the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 galaxy redshift dataset and separate weak gravitational lensing information from the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey and Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey. Our analysis employs the 3x2-pt correlation functions including cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing, together with the projected correlation function of the spectroscopic DESI lenses. We build realistic simulations of these datasets including galaxy halo occupation distributions, photometric redshift errors, weights, multiplicative shear calibration biases and magnification. We calculate the analytical covariance of these correlation functions including the Gaussian, noise and super-sample contributions, and show that our covariance determination agrees with estimates based on the ensemble of simulations. We use a Bayesian inference platform to demonstrate that we can recover the fiducial cosmological parameters of the simulation within the statistical error margin of the experiment, investigating the sensitivity to scale cuts. This study is the first in a sequence of papers in which we present and validate the large-scale 3x2-pt cosmological analysis of DESI-Y1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

First Detection of the GI-type of Intrinsic Alignments of Galaxies Using the Self-calibration Method in a Photometric Galaxy Survey

Weak gravitational lensing is one of the most promising cosmological probes to constrain dark matter, dark energy, and the nature of gravity at cosmic scales. Intrinsic alignments (IAs) of galaxies have been recognized as one of the most serious systematic effects facing gravitational lensing. Such alignments must be isolated and removed to obtain a pure lensing signal. Furthermore, the alignments are related to the processes of galaxy formation, so their extracted signal can help in understanding such formation processes and improving their theoretical modeling. We report in this Letter the first detection of the gravitational shear–intrinsic shape (GI) correlation and the intrinsic shape–galaxy density (Ig) correlation using the self-calibration method in a photometric redshift survey. These direct measurements are made from the KiDS-450 photometric galaxy survey with a significance of 3.65σ in the third bin for the Ig correlation, and 3.51σ for the GI cross-correlation between the third and fourth bins. The self-calibration method uses the information available from photometric surveys without needing to specify an IA model and will play an important role in validating IA models and IA mitigation in future surveys such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, Euclid, and WFIRST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring the early Universe with Gaia and Theia

It has recently been pointed out that Gaia is capable of detecting a stochastic gravitational wave background in the sensitivity band between the frequency of pulsar timing arrays and LISA. Here, we argue that Gaia and Theia have great potential for early universe cosmology, since such a frequency range is ideal for probing phase transitions in asymmetric dark matter, SIMP and the cosmological QCD transition. Furthermore, there is the potential for detecting primordial black holes in the solar mass range produced during such an early universe transition and distinguish them from those expected from the QCD epoch. Finally, we discuss the potential for Gaia and Theia to probe topological defects and the ability of Gaia to potentially shed light on the recent NANOGrav results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Out of one, many: distinguishing time delays from lensed supernovae

ABSTRACT Gravitationally lensed Type Ia supernovae are an emerging probe with great potential for constraining dark energy, spatial curvature, and the Hubble constant. The multiple images and their time delayed and magnified fluxes may be unresolved, however, blended into a single light curve. We demonstrate methods without a fixed source template matching for extracting the individual images, determining whether there are one (no lensing) or two or four (lensed) images, and measuring the time delays between them that are valuable cosmological probes. We find 100 per cent success for determining the number of images for time delays greater than ∼10 d.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A-B Transition in Superfluid $^3$He and Cosmological Phase Transitions

First-order phase transitions in the very early universe are a prediction of many extensions of the Standard Model of particle physics and could provide the departure from equilibrium needed for a dynamical explanation of the baryon asymmetry of the Universe. They could also produce gravitational waves of a frequency observable by future space-based detectors such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna. All calculations of the gravitational wave power spectrum rely on a relativistic version of the classical nucleation theory of Cahn-Hilliard and Langer, due to Coleman and Linde. The high purity and precise control of pressure and temperature achievable in the laboratory made the first-order A to B transition of superfluid $^3$He ideal for test of classical nucleation theory. As Leggett and others have noted, the theory fails dramatically. The lifetime of the metastable A phase is measurable, typically of order minutes to hours, far faster than classical nucleation theory predicts. If the nucleation of B phase from the supercooled A phase is due to a new, rapid intrinsic mechanism that would have implications for first-order cosmological phase transitions as well as predictions for gravitational wave production in the early universe. Here we discuss studies of the A-B phase transition dynamics in $^3$He, both experimental and theoretical, and show how the computational technology for cosmological phase transition can be used to simulate the dynamics of the A-B transition, support the experimental investigations of the A-B transition in the QUEST-DMC collaboration with the goal of identifying and quantifying the mechanism(s) responsible for nucleation of stable phases in ultra-pure metastable quantum phases.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Pulsar Parameter Drifts to Detect Subnanohertz Gravitational Waves

Gravitational waves with frequencies below 1 nHz are notoriously difficult to detect. With periods exceeding current experimental lifetimes, they induce slow drifts in observables rather than periodic correlations. Observables with well-known intrinsic contributions provide a means to probe this regime. In this Letter, we demonstrate the viability of using observed pulsar timing parameters to discover such “ultralow” frequency gravitational waves, presenting two complementary observables for which the systematic shift induced by ultralow-frequency gravitational waves can be extracted. Using existing data for these parameters, we search the ultralow-frequency regime for continuous-wave signals, finding a sensitivity near the expected prediction from inspirals of supermassive black holes. We do not see an excess in the data, setting a limit on the strain of 1.3 × 10 –12 at 450 pHz with a sensitivity dropping approximately quadratically with frequency until 10 pHz. Finally, our search method opens a new frequency range for gravitational wave detection and has profound implications for astrophysics, cosmology, and particle physics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep learning unresolved lensed light curves

ABSTRACT Gravitationally lensed sources may have unresolved or blended multiple images, and for time varying sources, the light curves from individual images can overlap. We use convolutional neural nets to both classify the light curves as due to unlensed, double, or quad lensed sources and fit for the time delays. Focusing on lensed supernova systems with time delays Δt ≳ 6 d, we achieve 100 per cent precision and recall in identifying the number of images and then estimating the time delays to σΔt ≈ 1 d, with a 1000× speedup relative to our previous Monte Carlo technique. This also succeeds for flux noise levels $\sim 10{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. For Δt ∈ [2, 6] d, we obtain 94–98 per cent accuracy, depending on image configuration. We also explore using partial light curves where observations only start near maximum light, without the rise time data, and quantify the success.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

From Images to Dark Matter: End-to-end Inference of Substructure from Hundreds of Strong Gravitational Lenses

Abstract Constraining the distribution of small-scale structure in our universe allows us to probe alternatives to the cold dark matter paradigm. Strong gravitational lensing offers a unique window into small dark matter halos (<10 10 M ⊙ ) because these halos impart a gravitational lensing signal even if they do not host luminous galaxies. We create large data sets of strong lensing images with realistic low-mass halos, Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observational effects, and galaxy light from HST’s COSMOS field. Using a simulation-based inference pipeline, we train a neural posterior estimator of the subhalo mass function (SHMF) and place constraints on populations of lenses generated using a separate set of galaxy sources. We find that by combining our network with a hierarchical inference framework, we can both reliably infer the SHMF across a variety of configurations and scale efficiently to populations with hundreds of lenses. By conducting precise inference on large and complex simulated data sets, our method lays a foundation for extracting dark matter constraints from the next generation of wide-field optical imaging surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Challenges for the statistical gravitational-wave method to measure the Hubble constant

Gravitational waves (GW) can be employed as standard sirens that will soon measure the Hubble constant with sufficient precision to weigh in on the ~5σ Hubble tension. Most GW sources will have no identified electromagnetic counterpart, leading to uncertainty in the redshift of the source, and in turn a degeneracy between host galaxy distance, redshift, and H 0 . In the case where no electromagnetic counterparts are identified, it has been proposed that a statistical canvassing of candidate GW hosts, found in a large galaxy survey for example, can be used to accurately constrain the Hubble constant. We study and simulate this "galaxy voting" method to compute H 0 . Here, we find that the Hubble constant posterior is in general biased relative to the true value even when making optimistic assumptions about the statistical properties of the sample. Using the MICECAT light-cone catalog, we find that the bias in the H0 posteriors depends on the realization of the underlying galaxy sample and the precision of the GW source distance measurement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Image segmentation for analyzing galaxy-galaxy strong lensing systems

The goal of this Letter is to develop a machine learning model to analyze the main gravitational lens and detect dark substructure (subhalos) within simulated images of strongly lensed galaxies. Using the technique of image segmentation, we turn the task of identifying subhalos into a classification problem, where we label each pixel in an image as coming from the main lens, a subhalo within a binned mass range, or neither. Our network is only trained on images with a single smooth lens and either zero or one subhalo near the Einstein ring. On an independent test set with lenses with large ellipticities, quadrupole and octopole moments, and for source apparent magnitudes between 17–25, the area of the main lens is recovered accurately. On average, only 1.3% of the true area is missed and 1.2% of the true area is added to another part of the lens. In addition, subhalos as light as 10 8.5 M ⊙ can be detected if they lie in bright pixels along the Einstein ring. Furthermore, the model is able to generalize to new contexts it has not been trained on, such as locating multiple subhalos with varying masses or more than one large smooth lens.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

SDSS-IV MaNGA: a catalogue of spectroscopically detected strong galaxy–galaxy lens candidates

ABSTRACT We spectroscopically detected candidate emission-lines of 8 likely, 17 probable, and 69 possible strong galaxy–galaxy gravitational lens candidates found within the spectra of $\approx 10\, 000$ galaxy targets contained within the completed Mapping of Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory survey. This search is based upon the methodology of the Spectroscopic Identification of Lensing Objects project, which extends the spectroscopic detection methods of the BOSS Emission-Line Lensing Survey and the Sloan Lens ACS Survey. We scanned the co-added residuals that we constructed from stacks of foreground subtracted row-stacked-spectra so a sigma-clipping method can be used to reject cosmic rays and other forms of transients that impact only a small fraction of the combined exposures. We also constructed narrow-band images from the signal to noise of the co-added residuals to observe signs of lensed source images. We also use several methods to compute the probable strong lensing regime for each candidate lens to determine which candidate background galaxies may reside sufficiently near the galaxy centre for strong lensing to occur. We present the spectroscopic redshifts within a value-added catalogue (VAC) for data release 17 (DR17) of SDSS-IV. We also present the lens candidates, spectroscopic data, and narrow-band images within a VAC for DR17. High resolution follow-up imaging of these lens candidates are expected to yield a sample of confirmed grade-A lenses with sufficient angular size to probe possible discrepancies between the mass derived from a best-fitting lens model, and the dynamical mass derived from the observed stellar velocities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The ellipticity parameterization for an NFW profile: An overlooked angular structure in strong lens modeling

Galaxy-scale gravitational lenses are often modeled with two-component mass profiles where one component represents the stellar mass and the second is a Navarro Frenk White (NFW) profile representing the dark matter. Outside of the spherical case, the NFW profile is costly to implement, and so it is approximated via two different methods; ellipticity can be introduced via the lensing potential (NFWp) or via the mass by approximating the NFW profile as a sum of analytical profiles (NFWm). While the NFWp method has been the default for lensing applications, it gives a different prescription of the azimuthal structure, which we show introduces ubiquitous gradients in ellipticity and boxiness in the mass distribution rather than having a constant elliptical shape. Because an unmodeled azimuthal structure has been shown to be able to bias lens model results, we explored the degree to which this azimuthal structure that was introduced can affect the model accuracy. We constructed input profiles using composite models using both the NFWp and NFWm methods and fit these mocks with a power-law elliptical mass distribution (PEMD) model with external shear. As a measure of the accuracy of the recovered lensing potential, we calculated the value of the Hubble parameter H 0 one would determine from the lensing fit. We found that the fits to the NFWp input return H 0 values that are systematically biased by about 3% lower than the NFWm counterparts. We explored whether such an effect is attributable to the mass sheet transformation (MST) by using an MST-independent quantity, ξ 2 . We show that, as expected, the NFWm mocks are degenerate with PEMD through an MST. For the NFWp, an additional bias was found beyond the MST due to the azimuthal structure exterior to the Einstein radius. We recommend modelers use an NFWm prescription in the future, such that the azimuthal structure can be introduced explicitly rather than implicitly.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Synthetic galaxy clusters and observations based on Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Data

ABSTRACT We develop a novel data-driven method for generating synthetic optical observations of galaxy clusters. In cluster weak lensing, the interplay between analysis choices and systematic effects related to source galaxy selection, shape measurement, and photometric redshift estimation can be best characterized in end-to-end tests going from mock observations to recovered cluster masses. To create such test scenarios, we measure and model the photometric properties of galaxy clusters and their sky environments from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) data in two bins of cluster richness $\lambda \in [30; 45)$, $\lambda \in [45; 60)$ and three bins in cluster redshift ($z\in [0.3; 0.35)$, $z\in [0.45; 0.5)$ and $z\in [0.6; 0.65)$. Using deep-field imaging data, we extrapolate galaxy populations beyond the limiting magnitude of DES Y3 and calculate the properties of cluster member galaxies via statistical background subtraction. We construct mock galaxy clusters as random draws from a distribution function, and render mock clusters and line-of-sight catalogues into synthetic images in the same format as actual survey observations. Synthetic galaxy clusters are generated from real observational data, and thus are independent from the assumptions inherent to cosmological simulations. The recipe can be straightforwardly modified to incorporate extra information, and correct for survey incompleteness. New realizations of synthetic clusters can be created at minimal cost, which will allow future analyses to generate the large number of images needed to characterize systematic uncertainties in cluster mass measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optical selection bias and projection effects in stacked galaxy cluster weak lensing

ABSTRACT Cosmological constraints from current and upcoming galaxy cluster surveys are limited by the accuracy of cluster mass calibration. In particular, optically identified galaxy clusters are prone to selection effects that can bias the weak lensing mass calibration. We investigate the selection bias of the stacked cluster lensing signal associated with optically selected clusters, using clusters identified by the redMaPPer algorithm in the Buzzard simulations as a case study. We find that at a given cluster halo mass, the residuals of redMaPPer richness and weak lensing signal are positively correlated. As a result, for a given richness selection, the stacked lensing signal is biased high compared with what we would expect from the underlying halo mass probability distribution. The cluster lensing selection bias can thus lead to overestimated mean cluster mass and biased cosmology results. We show that the lensing selection bias exhibits a strong scale dependence and is approximately 20–60 per cent for ΔΣ at large scales. This selection bias largely originates from spurious member galaxies within ±20–60 $h^{-1}\, \rm Mpc$ along the line of sight, highlighting the importance of quantifying projection effects associated with the broad redshift distribution of member galaxies in photometric cluster surveys. While our results qualitatively agree with those in the literature, accurate quantitative modelling of the selection bias is needed to achieve the goals of cluster lensing cosmology and will require synthetic catalogues covering a wide range of galaxy–halo connection models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model-independent constraints on Ωm and H ( z ) from the link between geometry and growth

ABSTRACT We constrain the expansion history of the Universe and the cosmological matter density fraction in a model-independent way by exclusively making use of the relationship between background and perturbations under a minimal set of assumptions. We do so by employing a Gaussian process to model the expansion history of the Universe from present time to the recombination era. The expansion history and the cosmological matter density are then constrained using recent measurements from cosmic chronometers, Type-Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, and redshift-space distortion data. Our results show that the evolution in the reconstructed expansion history is compatible with the Planck 2018 prediction at all redshifts. The current data considered in this study can constrain a Gaussian process on H(z) to an average $9.4 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ precision across redshift. We find Ωm = 0.224 ± 0.066, lower but statistically compatible with the Planck 2018 cosmology. Finally, the combination of future DESI measurements with the CMB measurement considered in this work holds the promise of $8 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ average constraints on a model-independent expansion history as well as a five-fold tighter Ωm constraint using the methodology developed in this work.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting the potential of weak lensing magnification to enhance LSST large-scale structure analyses

ABSTRACT Recent works have shown that weak lensing magnification must be included in upcoming large-scale structure analyses, such as for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), to avoid biasing the cosmological results. In this work, we investigate whether including magnification has a positive impact on the precision of the cosmological constraints, as well as being necessary to avoid bias. We forecast this using an LSST mock catalogue and a halo model to calculate the galaxy power spectra. We find that including magnification has little effect on the precision of the cosmological parameter constraints for an LSST galaxy clustering analysis, where the halo model parameters are additionally constrained by the galaxy luminosity function. In particular, we find that for the LSST gold sample (i < 25.3) including weak lensing magnification only improves the galaxy clustering constraint on Ωm by a factor of 1.03, and when using a very deep LSST mock sample (i < 26.5) by a factor of 1.3. Since magnification predominantly contributes to the clustering measurement and provides similar information to that of cosmic shear, this improvement would be reduced for a combined galaxy clustering and shear analysis. We also confirm that not modelling weak lensing magnification will catastrophically bias the cosmological results from LSST. Magnification must therefore be included in LSST large-scale structure analyses even though it does not significantly enhance the precision of the cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗