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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Boiler Replacement with Air-Source Heat Pump Boiler and Electric Boiler Backup

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock TM and ComStock TM models over the past three years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each timestep. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure—boiler replacement by air-source heat pump boiler. This measure replaces space heating natural gas boilers by air-source heat pump boilers when applicable and helps quantify the decarbonization as well as the energy savings potential from the replacement. The measure resulted higher savings in natural gas consumption compared to the increase in electricity consumption, with a ratio of 2.9. The total natural gas energy consumption was reduced by 20%, whereas the total electricity consumption was increased by 2.5%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validation of a Co-Optimized, Smart Hybrid Heat Pump Control

This study examines a residential dual fuel (DF) heating system that integrates heat pump and gas furnace technology with a home’s forced-air distribution ducts. Specifically, it explores a retrofit where an “add-on” heat pump replaces the air conditioning (A/C) system and is combined with the home’s existing furnace and air handler. The research team developed and validated an innovative control scheme for this integrated DF system that selected the more economical heating source (furnace or heat pump) while maintaining comfort in the home. The project’s field study and subsequent modeling analysis show that this control scheme can decrease energy use, cost, and emissions compared to a furnace-only system. As homes in mixed and cold climates transition to more electric space heating, furnace-to-dual fuel system retrofits offer a solution that can alleviate the retrofit costs, energy cost concerns, and peak load impacts of full electrification.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-stage heat pump with two-phase injection for cold climate applications implementing natural refrigerants

Heat pump adoption in cold climates is limited by various technical challenges, including heat capacity degradation, compressor deterioration, and frost accumulation on the outdoor heat exchanger. Furthermore, wide-spread adoption of heat pumps with high global warming potential presents a possible environmental concern. Thus, we present a heat pump concept termed the “saturation cycle,” which uses numerous compression stages to improve energy efficiency and injects two-phase refrigerant between compression stages to dramatically reduce compressor discharge temperatures. Given the growing interest in heat pumps, there is a need for a straightforward framework for parametric evaluation of natural refrigerants in high-efficiency heat pump cycle architectures, like the saturation cycle, in adverse climates. This work develops a thermodynamic modeling framework and focuses on the application of natural refrigerants to explore the performance trends at extremely cold climates down to −25 °C. This study shows that a two-stage saturation cycle and four-stage saturation cycle can reduce the compressor discharge superheating by up to 51–57 % or 73–80 %, respectively, depending on the refrigerant. Furthermore, at −25 °C, a two-stage R-290 saturation cycle heat pump theoretically can use 25 % less power than a single-stage heat pump or can provide up to 59 % more heating capacity when using the same compressor power as the baseline single-stage heat pump. The exergetic parametric analyses show that two-phase refrigerant injection fundamentally improves the thermodynamic performance of the heat pump, reducing overall exergy destruction by 10 % compared to a vapor-injection heat pump, compared at −25 °C. Thus, the saturation cycle is a promising heat pump cycle architecture for cold climate applications due to its superior energy savings (or capacity improvement) and substantial de-superheating capabilities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Documentation: Heat Pump Rooftop Units with Standard Performance

This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure - heat pump rooftop units (HP-RTUs) with standard efficiencies that are prevalent in the current market. Today, these products are claimed as standard efficiency by the manufacturers and are most commonly installed. This document will primarily discuss the additional changes of performance and configuration of the standard efficiency HP-RTUs while a comprehensive overview of the fundamental modeling methodology and background of the HP-RTU measure, including applicability, sizing scheme, and other key assumptions can be found in the original documentation: Heat Pump RTU. The definition of "standard efficiency" can be a bit vague when considering detailed specifics other than efficiency metrics of a heat pump. Thus, we have focused on reflecting products where manufacturers claim as standard efficiency and products that are not top-of-the-line in their model lineup. Based on gathering information from eight products from four major manufacturers, there are some common (or relatively prevalent) characteristics and we have defined standard efficiency product as follows: direct drive outdoor unit fan, two stages of heat pump cooling, single stage heat pump heating (i.e., all compressors running at the same time), heat pump minimum lockout temperature of 0°F (-17.8°C), backup electric resistance heating, backup heating runs at the same time as heat pump heating , heat pump heating locking out below minimum operating temperature, IEER in between 11-13, and HSPF in between 8-8.9. There are cases where some of these products have other variations: a variable frequency drive fan, dual fuel (i.e., gas backup heating) option, three or more cooling stages, two stages of heat pump heating, no backup heating as default , etc. However, this work tried to reflect the most common and prevalent options for a standard efficiency product.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

A dynamic 2D Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) model for enhanced computational efficiency

Progressing toward a future increasingly reliant on renewable energy sources, the development of effective, durable energy storage solutions becomes essential to balance supply and demand fluctuations. Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) is a long-duration thermal energy storage technology that captures excess heat generated from renewable energy sources and stores it underground for later use, enabling the efficient utilization of sustainable energy. This approach is particularly valuable in district energy networks when integrated with Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHP) to provide stable heating and cooling. However, traditional three-dimensional (3D) numerical models of BTES systems demand extensive computational resources, limiting their practicality for real-time and large-scale applications. This study introduces a novel two-dimensional (2D) modeling approach that reduces computational costs while maintaining high accuracy. By employing a radial ring-based discretization method, the model simulates heat injection, retention, and retrieval dynamics over seasonal cycles. A new thermal-mass weighted-average temperature parameter is introduced to evaluate the performance of BTES systems. Model validation against FEFLOW simulations demonstrates a 17-fold improvement in computational speed compared to traditional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models while achieving a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2 % during charging and 4 % during discharging. Additionally, a trade-off analysis between computational efficiency and accuracy is conducted, ensuring the model's applicability for real-world scenarios. The findings of this research contribute to the development of computationally efficient BTES models, facilitating better optimization, control, and integration into renewable energy systems. This work provides a foundation for further studies in techno-economic analysis, multi-year performance evaluation, and real-time operational strategies for BTES applications, supporting a more sustainable energy future.

2D modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance evaluation of underground thermal storage integrated dual-source heat pump systems

The increasing demand for electricity stresses the existing electric grids. Buildings consume 73% of all U.S. electricity and are responsible for 30% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Integrating thermal energy storage (TES) in building heating/cooling systems, which consume considerable electricity, can mitigate the challenges to electric grids. Here, this study reports on a novel thermal energy storage device integrated heat pump system to reshape the building electricity demand profile while maintaining thermal comfort. The annual performance of the proposed system has been evaluated through a dynamic system simulation with high fidelity in the Modelica platform. The dynamic model of the novel hybrid component named ‘dual purpose underground thermal battery’ was developed and validated. It was then incorporated into the system model. Given a time-of-use tariff, a rule-based control strategy was designed to shift the electric demand and switch the heat pump source for a typical single-family house in different climate zones of the United States. The system performance of the new TES-integrated dual-source heat pump was compared with that of a conventional air-source heat pump system. The results indicate that the proposed system can reduce the annual HVAC electricity cost by up to 52% while saving 45.2% on electricity consumption. In the Northern areas, the annual peak load of the HVAC system can be reduced by 64.9%. However, this reduction is less in the Southern areas as the system’s higher efficiency in winter dominates the overall energy-saving potential.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2026

Retrofit Energy Analysis and Central Thermal modeling (REACT) v1.0

REACT is a website designed to simplify the analysis and decision-making process for retrofitting existing central plant heating and cooling systems with advanced heat pump technologies. The tool evaluates the technical and economic viability of replacing traditional boilers with various options including water-to-water or air-to-water heat pumps, which can provide efficient and lower-cost heating and cooling. It allows users to compare current central plant configurations with retrofit scenarios, assessing energy consumption, life-cycle costs, and environmental impact. Retrofitting traditional boiler and chiller systems with water-to-water or air-to-water heat pumps can significantly reduce energy consumption and lower lifecycle costs. The REACT provides: User-Friendly Tools: A user friendly web interface for quick, intuitive analysis accessible to non-experts. Advanced Modeling: A Python-powered engine for detailed parametric studies, optimization, and research applications. Comprehensive Analysis: Lifecycle cost evaluation, energy consumption modeling, and environmental impact assessment. Visual Insights: A variety of plots to visualize system performance and design trade-offs. The engine for the website (REACT) bases on several Python libraries, and the website will be hosted on an ETA server.

Kim, Donghun [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design Overview of a High-Pressure Helium Flow Visualization Apparatus for Blanket Cooling Studies

Cooling of the fusion blanket first wall remains a significant challenge given the adverse conditions of heat and particle flux encountered near the plasma. Helium emerges as an attractive cooling candidate because of its chemical and neutronic inertness and separability from hydrogenic species (e.g. tritium). Because of the low thermal mass of helium, optimization of these coolant channels is warranted to provide high heat transfer performance at low pumping costs. Increasingly, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are employed to model and optimize these flow channels, and accompanying experimental data are needed to validate the predictions of these models. To provide the aforementioned experimental data, a high-pressure helium flow visualization upgrade has been designed for the Helium Flow Loop Experiment facility. This apparatus was built to American Society of Mechanical Engineers boiler and pressure vessel standards to withstand operating pressure of 4 MPa and mated to high-pressure glass windows. Seedless flow visualization is performed via high-speed background oriented schlieren (BOS), with image correlation used for time-resolved two-dimensional velocimetry at frequencies in excess of 60 kHz. Rectangular flow channel test articles are additively manufactured via laser powder bed fusion and installed into this visualization apparatus, with one-sided heating supplied by resistive heaters. In conclusion, the chosen test geometries were informed by prior CFD simulations, and the helium flow structures observed via BOS (detachment, recirculation, etc.) will be used for the validation of these accompanying models, in support of the design and optimization of blanket cooling channel configurations.

Helium flow↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Analysis of Model Predictive Control and MPC-Informed Rule-Based Control for Thermal Storage Operation in Ultra-Low Temperature 4th Generation District Heating Networks

The integration of thermal storage and heat pumps in district heating networks (DHNs) can significantly enhance operational flexibility and energy efficiency; however, the practical deployment of advanced control strategies is often hindered by forecasting requirements and computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of thermal storage control strategies in an ultra-low-temperature fourth-generation DHN, focusing on the development of a simplified rule-based control (RBC) explicitly informed by Model Predictive Control (MPC) behavior. The proposed methodology systematically analyzes the charging and discharging decisions of an MPC-controlled system under ideal forecasting conditions and extracts recurrent control patterns as a function of key system variables, including outdoor temperature, thermal demand, and electricity price. These patterns are translated into a set of structured time- and condition-based rules, resulting in an MPC-informed RBC that embeds predictive insights while preserving implementation simplicity and operational transparency. The approach is validated on a realistic mixed-use urban district in Denver, Colorado, USA, equipped with a centralized air-source heat pump, distributed water-to-water heat pumps, and a central thermal storage unit. Results show that the tuned RBC attains approximately 96% of ideal MPC economic performance (-27% of costs), preserves values of technical and environmental indicators (reduction only of 2-3%), and substantially reduces complexity. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of the RBC under varying operational conditions (i.e., ambient temperature, electricity price). Overall, the study demonstrates that MPC-informed rule-based control represents an effective trade-off between control performance and real-world applicability, enabling the integration of additional system components while maintaining simplicity, robustness, and ease of implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Technology Feasibility of High-Temperature Heat Pumps for Industrial Drying Process in the US

High-temperature heat pumps are a prospective technology for electrifying and decarbonizing industrial drying processes. This study investigates the technological potential of HTHPs in replacing fossil-fuel burners or steam boilers in industrial spray dryers. The performance of HTHPs with three configurations was investigated, including high high-temperature heat pump boosted with an electric air heater, a steam-generating high-temperature heat pump with multi-stage mechanical vapor compressions, and transcritical high-temperature heat pumps. R1336mzz(Z) is used as the refrigerant in both subcritical and transcritical high-temperature heat pumps, and R717 is used as the working fluid in the mechanical vapor recompression and the heat transfer fluids. Thermodynamic models are built to evaluate the energy efficiency of HTHPs. A case study was carried out on an industrial spray dryer integrated with a waste heat recuperator, where the HTHPs are used to recover precooled air with a dew point of 40℃ and supply heat for drying air at 200℃. For a high-temperature heat pump boosted with an electric air heater, a higher system-level COP is achieved with a high supply temperature from high-temperature heat pump. For a high-temperature heat pump with mechanical vapor recompressions, larger temperature drops in the flashing tank provide higher heat capacities but almost constant values of the coefficient of performance. For a transcritical high-temperature heat pump, an optimum discharge pressure exists for the temperature profiles within the gas cooler and the coefficient of performance. The transcritical high-temperature heat pump provides the best energy efficiency among the three configurations. The theoretical results prove the technical feasibility of high-temperature heat pumps in industrial air-drying applications. .

Wang, Pengtao↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-enhanced MPC for demand flexibility in small commercial buildings: An experimental study

Small- and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCBs) represent the majority of U.S. commercial building stock and a significant share of peak electricity demand, yet they often lack centralized building automation systems, representing a significant untapped resource for urban energy management. This infrastructure gap makes advanced control implementation challenging, limiting the potential for widespread demand flexibility. Model Predictive Control (MPC) has shown strong potential for load shifting, peak demand reduction, and cost savings, but its effectiveness is hindered by unmeasured disturbances such as internal heat gains. This paper presents a Hybrid MPC framework that integrates a physics-based gray-box building thermal model, identified using a lumped disturbance (LD) approach, with a machine learning (ML) model for forecasting unmeasured disturbances. The hybrid approach is designed for buildings with multiple individually controlled heat pump and thermostat pairs, common in SMCBs, and aims to optimize coordinated scheduling of multiple heat pumps under dynamic electricity pricing while respecting comfort constraints. The methodology is validated through both simulations of case study buildings and experimental studies at a highly-instrumented test facility. Simulation results show that the Hybrid MPC achieves substantial load shifting and peak demand reduction, approaching the performance of an ideal MPC with perfect disturbance knowledge, and outperforming a conventional MPC without disturbance forecasting. In experiments, the Hybrid MPC reduced daily HVAC energy costs by 8.7%, peak-price time load (load shifting) by 41.7%, and peak demand by 29.2% compared to baseline control, demonstrating comparable benefits to the 11.6% cost savings, 42.9% load shifting, and 23.2% peak reduction of the ideal MPC. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid modeling approach can significantly improve MPC performance in real-world SMCB applications without requiring additional disturbance measurements.

Demand Flexibility↗
DOE OSTI2026

Simulation and Experimental Validation of an Integrated Heat Pump – Thermal Energy Storage Using a Room-Temperature Phase Change Material

As the dependence on electrical heat pumps (HPs) and intermittent renewables increases, grid strains are expected to grow. This necessitates an energy storage system to reduce the mismatch between energy supply and demand. Thus, a proposed dual-mode commercially available 14.1 kW HP was integrated with a single 22°C phase change material (PCM) thermal storage system (TES) to load-shift both cooling and heating loads. The HP-TES system was manufactured and experimentally tested using a novel test matrix based on AHRI 210/240 psychrometric conditions. Furthermore, transient dual-mode system-level HP-TES models were developed in Modelica and validated using the experimental test conditions. Base HP cooling and heating experimental tests at ambient temperatures of 35°C and −8.3°C show that the modified HP-TES maintained the rated system capacity and performance. The HP-TES discharge provided approximately 30% and 50% reductions in cooling and heating demand, respectively. The transient HP-TES models predicted system capacity and total power input for discharge and recharge operating modes within ±4% mean percentage error, and recharge power input within ±2%, with maximum errors occurring at the equipment startup. During system operation, the sources of model deviations are first-order polynomial fits of the PCM digital scanning calorimetry (DSC) data and unaccounted supercooling in the PCM during solidification. Nonetheless, the model predictions agree with the experimental tests, demonstrating the availability of robust, accurate, and validated transient models that can be used for further validation and the development of system controls.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Phase change material-to-refrigerant heat exchangers: Experimental validation and uneven melting analysis

Thermal energy storage (TES) using phase change materials (PCMs) enables load shifting and reduces mismatches between the building's thermal demand and the heat pump (HP) system's thermal capacity. While most TES studies have focused on single-phase heat transfer fluids, PCM-to-refrigerant heat exchangers (PRHX), in which the refrigerant undergoes liquid-vapor phase change, remain largely underexplored. Here, to address this gap, this study systematically investigates a shell-and-tube PRHX operating as the condenser in an HP through experiments and simulations. A two-dimensional enthalpy-based finite-volume PRHX model was developed and validated against experimental data, including refrigerant and PCM temperature profiles, PRHX capacity, and system-level performance. Results show three characteristic stages: Stage I, the condenser temperature rapidly increases with PCM in the solid state absorbing sensible heat; Stage II, stable operation during PCM phase change; and Stage III, performance decline once part of the PCM becomes fully melted. Heat transfer analysis revealed that uneven PCM melting along the condenser length was driven primarily by variations in the refrigerant-side heat transfer coefficient, rather than local approach temperature differences. Further study demonstrated that minimizing refrigerant outlet subcooling led to more uniform PCM melting and extended Stages I and II by up to 89%. This paper provides a validated PRHX model, clarifies the mechanisms of uneven PCM melting, and highlights subcooling control as an effective strategy to improve TES performance in HP systems without requiring secondary loops.

Graphite matrix↗
DOE OSTI2025

The value of integrating a geothermal district heating system into a microgrid

As electrical grids increasingly rely on variable renewable energy, maintaining reliability and cost efficiency becomes more complex. To address these challenges, this study analyzed the integration of geothermal district heating as a grid-responsive thermal resource within a microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma. Building energy modeling using EnergyPlus estimated annual district heating demand at 2.9 GWh, with a peak load of 2.8 MW th . Techno-economic analyses were conducted to meet the heating demand under three geothermal scenarios, varying by production depth, flow rate, and thermal output, each supplemented by natural gas peaking boilers. In parallel, equivalent electrical load profiles were developed using typical coefficients of performance (COPs) for air-source heat pumps and electric boilers to establish an electrified baseline scenario. A complete end-use electrical load profile was also developed for the microgrid using Cambium dataset. The modeling results demonstrated reliable and economic operation of the geothermal systems over 30 years, with COPs ranging from 2.6 to 8.9 and the lowest levelized heating cost at $\$$54.6/MWh. Geothermal integration reduced electricity consumption by up to 94.7 % compared to the non-geothermal base case, yielding annual energy savings of up to $\$$803 k. Avoided grid costs ranged from $\$$65 k–$\$$147 k per year, with individual events avoiding up to $\$$4,863 per hour. Grid-responsive operation further reduced wholesale energy costs by 53–56 %. These findings demonstrate geothermal heating, traditionally treated as a non-grid-responsive thermal resource, can be reconfigured to support dynamic grid services, offering a scalable pathway to enhance reliability and reduce costs in renewable-rich microgrids and district heating networks.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Geothermal-integrated thermally anisotropic building envelope for energy and peak-demand reduction

Buildings consume large amounts of energy for heating and cooling, while peak electricity demand places significant stress on the power grid. This paper presents a reduced-order co-simulation framework and load-oriented supervisory control strategy for a geothermal-integrated thermally anisotropic building envelope with a ground loop (TABE+GL). In TABE+GL, a hydronic loop embedded in the building envelope is directly coupled with a geothermal ground loop, allowing for bidirectional heat exchange between the envelope, the ground, and the indoor environment. A hybrid co-simulation framework was established by coupling a reduced-order resistor–capacitor (RC) thermal network model with EnergyPlus augmented with GHEDesigner modules. The RC model generated feasible heat flux options under three operating modes, and EnergyPlus predicted sensible loads, energy use, and pump energy demand. At each simulation step, a supervisory control algorithm selected the optimal loop configuration and duty factor that maximizes useful TABE geothermal utilization without exceeding the predicted sensible load, thereby avoiding overheating or cooling. Case studies were conducted for Los Angeles, California, Charleston, South Carolina, and Denver, Colorado. Results showed that the proposed framework reduced HVAC electricity consumption by 43%–67%, natural gas use for space heating by 11%–38%, and peak electricity demand by 43%–88%. These results highlight the potential of combining reduced-order envelope modeling, direct geothermal coupling, and load-oriented supervisory control to improve whole building energy performance and reduce peak demand across diverse weather conditions.

Howard, Daniel [Southern Adventist University]↗
DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Scenario Documentation: Standard Performance Heat Pump Rooftop Unit With New Windows

Building on a 3-year effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock (TM) and ComStock (TM) models, this work produces national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual energy consumption (at subhourly resolution) of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility end-use load shapes that cover high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to various "what-if" scenarios that can be applied to buildings. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building (or collection of buildings) and a building with an energy efficiency or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step, as well as annual aggregations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗