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UAS Integration in the NAS Flight Test 6: Full Mission Results

Recent standards development efforts for the integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS) such as those in RTCA Inc. Special Committee 228 (SC-228) have focused on relatively large UAS transitioning to and from Class A airspace. In an effort to expand the range of vehicle classes that can access the NAS, the NASA UAS Integration in the NAS project has investigated Low Size, Weight, and Power (Low SWaP) technologies that would allow smaller UAS to detect-and-avoid (DAA) traffic. Through batch and human in the loop (HITL) simulation studies, the UAS Integration in the NAS DAA subproject have identified candidate performance standards that would contribute to enabling extended Low SWaP, UAS operations under 10,000 feet. These candidate performance standards include minimum field of regard (FOR) values for Low SWaP air surveillance sensors as well as a DAA well-clear (DWC) definition which can be applied to non-cooperative traffic to reduce the required maneuver initiation range. To test the assumptions of the project’s simulation studies and validate the candidate performance standards, a live flight research event was executed at NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center. The UAS Integration in the NAS Project Flight Test 6 Full Mission sought to characterize UAS pilot responses to traffic conflicts using a representative Low SWAP DAA system in an operational NAS environment. To achieve this, live, virtual and constructive distributed environment (LVC-DE) elements were combined to simulate a sector of Oakland center airspace and induce encounters with a live, manned aircraft. A Navmar Applied Sciences Tigershark XP was used as the UAS ownship and was integrated into the test architecture to enable it to be controlled from a Vigilant Spirit Control Station (VSCS) research ground control station. Qualified UAS pilots were recruited to act as subject pilots under test (SPUT) to control the Tigershark XP in a simulated mission while coordinating with a participating air traffic controller in simulated airspace. The intruder speed, intruder equipage and encounter geometry were varied between six scripted encounters per SPUT. Various metrics were collected including pilot reaction time from the onset of DAA alert, ATC coordination rate, probability and severity of losses of DAA well clear, and subjective ratings of system acceptability. The implications of these results on the development of standards for Low SWAP DAA systems will be discussed.

UAV↗

Airspace Performance Observations of Scalable Autonomous Operations in a High Density Vertiplex Simulation

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) High Density Vertiplex (HDV) subproject aims to develop and demonstrate progressive automation technologies that contribute to the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) concept. Using Human-and-Hardware-In-TheLoop (HHITL) techniques, HDV demonstrates initial vertiport automation services at vertiports with increased air traffic volume in both simulated and live test environments. In 2023, the Scalable Autonomous Operations (SAO) simulation was conducted in which prototype vertiport, airspace, and ground control station technologies were assessed on technical performance. During the SAO simulation, an observational study captured an initial impression of the HDV airspace performance, potential disruptions to the airspace, and highlighted some capability and procedural gaps. Observations took place in two parts. In the first part, five scenario use cases (Nominal, Missed Approach, Speed Change, Divert, and MultiAircraft Divert) were conducted with three human operator roles (Vertiport Manager, Fleet Manager, and Ground Control Station Operator). Researchers collected metrics on throughput, closest point of approach, and airborne delay. In the second part of the study, the Missed Approach scenario was observed under three traffic density levels (20, 40, and 60 operations per hour) to challenge the automation to correctly identify slots in the vertiport arrival schedule. The results showed that the automation successfully found a slot for the Missed Approach vehicle in the 20 operations per hour condition, after some delay it found one in the 40 condition, and it did not find one in the 60 condition. The observations of technical and human performance throughout the five scenario use cases and the Missed Approach case study indicated that for HDV to increase traffic density and maintain or increase throughput, airspace monitoring services should be able to detect and resolve conflicts between aircraft. Furthermore, the roles and responsibilities of human operators need additional definition when it comes to responding to vehicle conflicts.

Advanced Air Mobility↗

Airspace Performance Observations of Scalable Autonomous Operations in a High Density Vertiplex Simulation

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) High Density Vertiplex (HDV) sub- project aims to develop and demonstrate progressive automation technologies that contribute to the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) concept. Using Human-and-Hardware-In-The- Loop (HHITL) techniques, HDV demonstrates initial vertiport automation services at vertiports with increased air traffic volume in both simulated and live test environments. In 2023, the Scalable Autonomous Operations (SAO) simulation was conducted in which prototype vertiport, airspace, and ground control station technologies were assessed on technical performance. During the SAO simulation, an observational study captured an initial impression of the HDV airspace performance, potential disruptions to the airspace, and highlighted some capability and procedural gaps. Observations took place in two parts. In the first part, five scenario use cases (Nominal, Missed Approach, Speed Change, Divert, and Multi- Aircraft Divert) were conducted with three human operator roles (Vertiport Manager, Fleet Manager, and Ground Control Station Operator). Researchers collected metrics on throughput, closest point of approach, and airborne delay. In the second part of the study, the Missed Approach scenario was observed under three traffic density levels (20, 40, and 60 operations per hour) to challenge the automation to correctly identify slots in the vertiport arrival schedule. The results showed that the automation successfully found a slot for the Missed Approach vehicle in the 20 operations per hour condition, after some delay it found one in the 40 condition, and it did not find one in the 60 condition. The observations of technical and human performance throughout the five scenario use cases and the Missed Approach case study indicated that for HDV to increase traffic density and maintain or increase throughput, airspace monitoring services should be able to detect and resolve conflicts between aircraft. Furthermore, the roles and responsibilities of human operators need additional definition when it comes to responding to vehicle conflicts.

advanced air mobility↗

Chapter 6: Evaluation of Cardiothermal Model Prediction of Simulated Lunar Extravehicular Activity

Fewer than 20 extravehicular activities were completed during the Apollo program. The lunar environment has consistent unknowns to address particularly that of suited performance in partial gravity. The moon has altered gravity that is 1/6th that of Earth’s. This study is focused to investigate validation of the regression techniques identified in subsequent chapters and look to improve predictive outcomes during simulated lunar EVA tasks. Heart rate predictions of metabolic energy expenditure are investigated to predict workload throughout simulated lunar EVA conducted in the active response gravity offload system (ARGOS) with in the NASA Mark III space suit. Heart rate variability metrics are utilized to identify periods of high workload. Continually, the lunar offload capacity is further characterized to aid in improving the cardiothermal prediction models including predictions of core temperature, skin temperature and heat storage using heart rate, metabolic rates and suit thermal data during the simulated EVA. The outcome of this model provides an application for future use in contingency predictions of energy expenditure during Lunar EVAs and provide a suite of instrumentation to predict workload during training scenarios.

Simulated EVA↗

A Near-Term Concept for Trajectory Based Operations with Air/Ground Data Link Communication

An operating concept and required system components for trajectory-based operations with air/ground data link for today's en route and transition airspace is proposed. Controllers are fully responsible for separation as they are today, and no new aircraft equipage is required. Trajectory automation computes integrated solutions to problems like metering, weather avoidance, traffic conflicts and the desire to find and fly more time/fuel efficient flight trajectories. A common ground-based system supports all levels of aircraft equipage and performance including those equipped and not equipped for data link. User interface functions for the radar controller's display make trajectory-based clearance advisories easy to visualize, modify if necessary, and implement. Laboratory simulations (without human operators) were conducted to test integrated operation of selected system components with uncertainty modeling. Results are based on 102 hours of Fort Worth Center traffic recordings involving over 37,000 individual flights. The presence of uncertainty had a marginal effect (5%) on minimum-delay conflict resolution performance, and windfavorable routes had no effect on detection and resolution metrics. Flight plan amendments and clearances were substantially reduced compared to today s operations. Top-of-descent prediction errors are the largest cause of failure indicating that better descent predictions are needed to reliably achieve fuel-efficient descent profiles in medium to heavy traffic. Improved conflict detections for climbing flights could enable substantially more continuous climbs to cruise altitude. Unlike today s Conflict Alert, tactical automation must alert when an altitude amendment is entered, but before the aircraft starts the maneuver. In every other failure case tactical automation prevented losses of separation. A real-time prototype trajectory trajectory-automation system is running now and could be made ready for operational testing at an en route Center in 1-2 years.

McNally, David↗

Summary of Technical Interchange Meetings (TIMs) Designed to Enable Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO)

The Exploration Medical Capability Element (ExMC) in NASA’s Human Research Program hosted a series of TIMs in 2023-2024 designed to stimulate discussion around specific topics with the goal of enabling EIMO. In context of the thematic constituent elements of EIMO, namely pre-mission planning, acute/emergent/prolonged medical decision making, supply/resource management and task load management, subject matter experts from industry, academia and government (NASA and other Agencies) provided valuable and actionable guidance and recommendations. Earth-based medical experts will remain indispensable for pre-mission planning, however, management of acute/emergent medical contingencies will require a gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets to enable support of astronaut health and performance and reduce overall mission risk. Key to achieving these enhancements is providing an integrated data system platform capable of utilizing multiple data streams in concert with a variety of on-board databases and passive monitoring of video and wearable sensors to enable a multi-modal, agentic AI-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to support crew medical officer (CMO) medical decision-making. The EIMO series of TIMs (I-V) have proven to be instructive and portend a significant paradigm shift will be necessary to maintain crew health and performance on exploration class missions. Importantly, since the expected paradigm shift will be significantly different from the methods of operation that have been employed for the majority of missions from the inception of human spaceflight to date, any proposed methods must be deployed in the setting of ongoing operations early and be “tested, reviewed and practiced” while reliable back-up is available to facilitate an Enterprise-wide level of comfort and acceptance. Serious constraints on data transmission coupled with a large and expanding universe of on-board medical informatics data streams will necessitate implementation of a CDSS to supplant the current reliance on support provided by ground-based SMEs. Establishment of trust in the system by CMO/crew and the ground-based medical support team will be essential. Co-development of a CDSS with industry partners will assure that state of the art tools can be employed, and industry efficiencies can be leveraged. Training regimens, materials and tools must evolve to be responsive (just-in-time training) and facilitate autonomous execution of procedures. Proficiency metrics should be established and be based on validated competencies or milestones as opposed to a prescribed number of training hours. Training should be prioritized for broad, translatable skills that have universal application across a variety of medical conditions. Repetition was deemed to be the key to achieving proficiency and emphasis should lie in procedural training which is known to extinguish more rapidly than diagnostic skills. Advanced tools, e.g., extended reality, can provide more realistic and effective training. Use of advanced probabilistic risk assessment tools will be essential to optimize the medical system capability while carefully balancing risk relative to mass/power/volume limitations. Importance of factoring use-life of medical supplies and maintaining awareness of redundancy and opportunity to re-purpose under off nominal situations was emphasized. Consideration of adopting optimized performance standards vs. “good-enough” performance thresholds is warranted. The use of legacy systems as opposed to creating new systems may be preferable. Managing task load and associated cognitive load will be essential to maintain operational safety and behavioral health. ExMC aspires to create a shared EIMO paradigm and strategic vision for advancing medical system design through novel technologies, training, protocols, and support capabilities, built upon the spirit of successful strategies and innovations over the past six decades of space medicine operations.

Jay Lemery↗

In-Depth Analysis of Subject Functional Performance and Subjective Feedback Data for Evaluating Argos Simulation Quality

Mechanical offloading systems such as the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) are used to simulate various partial gravity environments. ARGOS offloads pressurized suited subjects through a gimbaling pivot point system attached to a volumetric Portable Life Support System (PLSS). The pivot point can be configured to multiple locations with respect to the human-suit system center of gravity (CG). Previous work has tested and documented the interaction between different pivot point locations and measured CG. Observations indicated that small changes in pivot point location substantially affect the stability and functional performance (simulation quality) of a subject. This led to the development of a standardized gimbal assessment protocol to assess the functional performance of a pressurized suited subject as a function of the pivot point location, using the data obtained from a variety of planetary suit mobility tasks. As a result, an expansive repository of CG-related task metrics was generated from numerous ARGOS spacesuit test events, for different gimbal configurations and different test subjects. Based on the evaluation metrics and observed trends, several pivot point locations were iteratively identified to determine an “appropriate/optimal” configuration. This study thus describes the in-depth analysis of the CG evaluation metrics to better quantify trends and determine if specific factors are strongly associated with appropriate/optimal configurations. Quantitative and qualitative variables relating to subject task performance, subjective feedback, and anthropometry will be evaluated via probabilistic methods. The results from this study are expected to improve our understanding of optimal ARGOS gimbal settings, which will better inform the gimbal configuration identification process and improve simulation quality for extravehicular activity (EVA) training.

Joseph Yao↗

Exploration Clinical Decision Support System: Medical Data Architecture

The Exploration Clinical Decision Support (ECDS) System project is intended to enhance the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element for extended duration, deep-space mission planning in HRP. A major development guideline is the Risk of "Adverse Health Outcomes & Decrements in Performance due to Limitations of In-flight Medical Conditions". ECDS attempts to mitigate that Risk by providing crew-specific health information, actionable insight, crew guidance and advice based on computational algorithmic analysis. The availability of inflight health diagnostic computational methods has been identified as an essential capability for human exploration missions. Inflight electronic health data sources are often heterogeneous, and thus may be isolated or not examined as an aggregate whole. The ECDS System objective provides both a data architecture that collects and manages disparate health data, and an active knowledge system that analyzes health evidence to deliver case-specific advice. A single, cohesive space-ready decision support capability that considers all exploration clinical measurements is not commercially available at present. Hence, this Task is a newly coordinated development effort by which ECDS and its supporting data infrastructure will demonstrate the feasibility of intelligent data mining and predictive modeling as a biomedical diagnostic support mechanism on manned exploration missions. The initial step towards ground and flight demonstrations has been the research and development of both image and clinical text-based computer-aided patient diagnosis. Human anatomical images displaying abnormal/pathological features have been annotated using controlled terminology templates, marked-up, and then stored in compliance with the AIM standard. These images have been filtered and disease characterized based on machine learning of semantic and quantitative feature vectors. The next phase will evaluate disease treatment response via quantitative linear dimension biomarkers that enable image content-based retrieval and criteria assessment. In addition, a data mining engine (DME) is applied to cross-sectional adult surveys for predicting occurrence of renal calculi, ranked by statistical significance of demographics and specific food ingestion. In addition to this precursor space flight algorithm training, the DME will utilize a feature-engineering capability for unstructured clinical text classification health discovery. The ECDS backbone is a proposed multi-tier modular architecture providing data messaging protocols, storage, management and real-time patient data access. Technology demonstrations and success metrics will be finalized in FY16.

Biomedical support↗

Laboratory Headphone Studies of Human Response to Low-Amplitude Sonic Booms and Rattle Heard Indoors

Human response to sonic booms heard indoors is affected by the generation of contact-induced rattle noise. The annoyance caused by sonic boom-induced rattle noise was studied in a series of psychoacoustics tests. Stimuli were divided into three categories and presented in three different studies: isolated rattles at the same calculated Perceived Level (PL), sonic booms combined with rattles with the mixed sound at a single PL, and sonic booms combined with rattles with the mixed sound at three different PL. Subjects listened to sounds over headphones and were asked to report their annoyance. Annoyance to different rattles was shown to vary significantly according to rattle object size. In addition, the combination of low-amplitude sonic booms and rattles can be more annoying than the sonic boom alone. Correlations and regression analyses for the combined sonic boom and rattle sounds identified the Moore and Glasberg Stationary Loudness (MGSL) metric as a primary predictor of annoyance for the tested sounds. Multiple linear regression models were developed to describe annoyance to the tested sounds, and simplifications for applicability to a wider range of sounds are presented.

Loubeau, Alexandra↗

Effects of Communication Modality on Pilot-Controller Coordination during a Simulated m:N Operation

The last decade or so has seen growing interest in new control paradigms and concepts of operation for uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) in which multiple aircraft are piloted remotely by a single or relatively small number of people. Referred to as “one-to-many” and “many-to- many” (alternatively, “multi-operator, multi-vehicle”)—and frequently expressed as the corresponding ratios, 1:N and m:N—such novel configurations of aircraft and the people who manage them are seen as critical to the path to future operations involving UAS. Examples of industry domains interested in these control paradigms are small package delivery services utilizing small UAS and passenger-carrying, short-range “Urban Air Mobility” (UAM) operations. Stakeholders in such operations have identified communication and coordination of flight activity with air traffic controllers (ATC) as a barrier to operations. In contrast to present-day flight operations, in which a pilot communicates with one ATC on one radio frequency for one aircraft, multi-vehicle operations potentially entail a significant increase in pilot task load for management of comms. New concepts, such as UAS Service Suppliers (USSs) and Providers of Services to UAM (PSUs), have been proposed to address the known bottleneck for Air Traffic Management (ATM) presented by multi-vehicle operations. While progress has been steadily made over years developing USSs and PSUs, it is generally expected that initial UAM operations will rely on traditional voice-over-radio communication with ATC for purposes of ATM. The current study was a human-in-the-loop simulation that had participants, each possessing a Private Pilot License, act as the ground-based pilot-in- command for multiple vehicles in a hypothetical UAM service in the San Francisco Bay Area. The experiment utilized a 2-by-3, within-subjects design in which the pilot’s Vehicle Load (4 vs. 12) and Comm System (Voice, Datalink, and a Hybrid) were manipulated. The task given to pilots was to use the Comm System to coordinate flight activity for all aircraft with appropriate controllers, having to obtain departure and arrival clearances at “vertiport” facilities and transition clearances for any intermediate airspaces along the route. Pilots were additionally responsible for compliance with vectoring instructions issued by ATC. Subjective workload questionnaires (NASA-TLX) were administered following each experimental trial. Screen recordings of the pilot’s Ground Control Station (GCS) and audio recordings of trials were subsequently coded to obtain performance metrics: response times and error rates. Presented in this paper are results related to pilot responses to vectoring instructions issued by ATC. Workload was found to be significantly higher in the 12-Vehicle condition compared to the 4-Vehicle condition, nearly maxing out the NASA-TLX overall workload scale. There was no significant difference made by the Comm System on workload ratings. Pilots’ response times to communications were fastest in the Voice condition, although overall “service time” for compliance was shorter in Datalink and Hybrid conditions in most cases. Errors by pilots were frequent in both Vehicle Load conditions, most perniciously when using the Voice system. The results of this study suggest tradeoffs in advantages and disadvantages of the three comm systems. Recommendations for communication system design are provided taking the tradeoffs into account.

Garrett G Sadler↗

Effects of Communication Modality on Pilot-Controller Coordination during a Simulated m:N Operation

The last decade or so has seen growing interest in new control paradigms and concepts of operation for uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) in which multiple aircraft are piloted remotely by a single or relatively small number of people. Referred to as “one-to-many” and “many-to- many” (alternatively, “multi-operator, multi-vehicle”)—and frequently expressed as the corresponding ratios, 1:N and m:N—such novel configurations of aircraft and the people who manage them are seen as critical to the path to future operations involving UAS. Examples of industry domains interested in these control paradigms are small package delivery services utilizing small UAS and passenger-carrying, short-range “Urban Air Mobility” (UAM) operations. Stakeholders in such operations have identified communication and coordination of flight activity with air traffic controllers (ATC) as a barrier to operations. In contrast to present-day flight operations, in which a pilot communicates with one ATC on one radio frequency for one aircraft, multi-vehicle operations potentially entail a significant increase in pilot task load for management of comms. New concepts, such as UAS Service Suppliers (USSs) and Providers of Services to UAM (PSUs), have been proposed to address the known bottleneck for Air Traffic Management (ATM) presented by multi-vehicle operations. While progress has been steadily made over years developing USSs and PSUs, it is generally expected that initial UAM operations will rely on traditional voice-over-radio communication with ATC for purposes of ATM. The current study was a human-in-the-loop simulation that had participants, each possessing a Private Pilot License, act as the ground-based pilot-in- command for multiple vehicles in a hypothetical UAM service in the San Francisco Bay Area. The experiment utilized a 2-by-3, within-subjects design in which the pilot’s Vehicle Load (4 vs. 12) and Comm System (Voice, Datalink, and a Hybrid) were manipulated. The task given to pilots was to use the Comm System to coordinate flight activity for all aircraft with appropriate controllers, having to obtain departure and arrival clearances at “vertiport” facilities and transition clearances for any intermediate airspaces along the route. Pilots were additionally responsible for compliance with vectoring instructions issued by ATC. Subjective workload questionnaires (NASA-TLX) were administered following each experimental trial. Screen recordings of the pilot’s Ground Control Station (GCS) and audio recordings of trials were subsequently coded to obtain performance metrics: response times and error rates. Presented in this paper are results related to pilot responses to vectoring instructions issued by ATC. Workload was found to be significantly higher in the 12-Vehicle condition compared to the 4-Vehicle condition, nearly maxing out the NASA-TLX overall workload scale. There was no significant difference made by the Comm System on workload ratings. Pilots’ response times to communications were fastest in the Voice condition, although overall “service time” for compliance was shorter in Datalink and Hybrid conditions in most cases. Errors by pilots were frequent in both Vehicle Load conditions, most perniciously when using the Voice system. The results of this study suggest tradeoffs in advantages and disadvantages of the three comm systems. Recommendations for communication system design are provided taking the tradeoffs into account.

urban air mobility↗

Modeling Leadership Styles in Human-Robot Team Dynamics

The recent proliferation of robotic systems in our society has placed questions regarding interaction between humans and intelligent machines at the forefront of robotics research. In response, our research attempts to understand the context in which particular types of interaction optimize efficiency in tasks undertaken by human-robot teams. It is our conjecture that applying previous research results regarding leadership paradigms in human organizations will lead us to a greater understanding of the human-robot interaction space. In doing so, we adapt four leadership styles prevalent in human organizations to human-robot teams. By noting which leadership style is more appropriately suited to what situation, as given by previous research, a mapping is created between the adapted leadership styles and human-robot interaction scenarios-a mapping which will presumably maximize efficiency in task completion for a human-robot team. In this research we test this mapping with two adapted leadership styles: directive and transactional. For testing, we have taken a virtual 3D interface and integrated it with a genetic algorithm for use in &le-operation of a physical robot. By developing team efficiency metrics, we can determine whether this mapping indeed prescribes interaction styles that will maximize efficiency in the teleoperation of a robot.

Cruz, Gerardo E.↗

The critical role of velocity storage in production of motion sickness

We propose that motion sickness is mediated through the orientation properties of velocity storage in the vestibular system that tend to align eye velocity produced by the angular vestibulo-ocular reflex (aVOR) with gravito-inertial acceleration (GIA). (GIA is the sum of the linear accelerations acting on the head. In the absence of translational accelerations, gravity is the GIA.) We further postulate that motion sickness produced by cross-coupled vestibular stimulation can be characterized by a metric composed of the disparity between the axis of eye rotation and the GIA, the strength of the response to angular motion, and the response duration, as determined by the central vestibular time constant, that is, by the time constant of velocity storage. The nodulus and uvula of the vestibulocerebellum are likely to be the central sites where the disparity is sensed, where the vestibular time constants are habituated, and where links are made to the autonomic system to produce the symptoms and signs.

Non-NASA Center↗

Dual Heat Pulse, Dual Layer Thermal Protection System Sizing Analysis and Trade Studies for Human Mars Entry Descent and Landing

NASA has been recently updating design reference missions for the human exploration of Mars and evaluating the technology investments required to do so. The first of these started in January 2007 and developed the Mars Design Reference Architecture 5.0 (DRA5). As part of DRA5, Thermal Protection System (TPS) sizing analysis was performed on a mid L/D rigid aeroshell undergoing a dual heat pulse (aerocapture and atmospheric entry) trajectory. The DRA5 TPS subteam determined that using traditional monolithic ablator systems would be mass expensive. They proposed a new dual-layer TPS concept utilizing an ablator atop a low thermal conductivity insulative substrate to address the issue. Using existing thermal response models for an ablator and insulative tile, preliminary hand analysis of the dual layer concept at a few key heating points indicated that the concept showed potential to reduce TPS masses and warranted further study. In FY09, the followon Entry, Descent and Landing Systems Analysis (EDL-SA) project continued by focusing on Exploration-class cargo or crewed missions requiring 10 to 50 metric tons of landed payload. The TPS subteam advanced the preliminary dual-layer TPS analysis by developing a new process and updated TPS sizing code to rapidly evaluate mass-optimized, full body sizing for a dual layer TPS that is capable of dual heat pulse performance. This paper describes the process and presents the results of the EDL-SA FY09 dual-layer TPS analyses on the rigid mid L/D aeroshell. Additionally, several trade studies were conducted with the sizing code to evaluate the impact of various design factors, assumptions and margins.

McGuire, Mary Kathleen↗

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W/sq. m, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W/sq. m from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W/sq. m from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W/sq. m from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W/sq. m from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W/sq. m. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W/sq. m is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W/sq. m, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

effective radiative forcing↗

Oculometric Analysis of Saccadic Compensation for Visual Motion Processing Impairment due to Alcohol and Sleep Disruption

The Visuomotor Control Laboratory at Ames Research Center has developed a 5-minute ocular tracking test that computes 21 largely independent metrics of visuomotor performance, reflecting neural signal processing along a number of distinct pathways through cortex, brainstem, and cerebellum. Human sensorimotor performance is resilient to the challenges and stressors of many operational environments, in part, because overall performance is achieved through multiple parallel systems. Our multidimensional oculometrics allow us to examine impacts on these sub-components separately. To illustrate this, we contrasted the effects of two mild neural stressors, acute sleep-deprivation and low-dose alcohol. We have previously shown that, in both cases, oculometric analysis is a highly sensitive indicator of impairment. Here we quantified not only the observed impact on the performance of one sub-system, smooth pursuit, which uses high-level cortical processing of visual motion to track a moving object, but also the observed (partial) compensation by an evolutionarily older mid-brain and brainstem subsystem, saccades, which generates jumps in eye position to catch up with the target when smooth pursuit is inadequate. Specifically, we examined the dose-response (effect size vs. dose size) of the ground lost (pursuit deficit) and the ground recouped (saccadic compensation) across three separate studies – acute low-dose alcohol administration (16 subjects), acute sleep loss (12 subjects), and acute sleep loss with caffeine intervention (9 subjects). We computed the dose-response slopes using linear regression. The figure below shows that, in the case of acute sleep deprivation, the resulting slopes for ground lost and ground recouped (mean ± SE across subjects) were significantly different (paired t-test, t(11) = 5.17, p < 0.001), indicating poor saccadic compensation. However, when sleep loss was coupled with caffeine ingestion, ground lost was decreased and ground recouped increased such that the slopes were no longer different (t(8) = -0.05, p = 0.965). With alcohol, the two slopes were large albeit not significantly different (t(15) = 0.96, p = 0.351), indicating significant pursuit impairment but effective saccadic compensation. Our findings show that sleep deprivation and alcohol affect oculomotor performance differently. Low-dose alcohol effects appear predominantly cortical, with effective brainstem compensation. Sleep loss and circadian disruption however appears to affect both cortical and brainstem pathways with caffeine providing an effective countermeasure to both effects. Beyond the mere detection of impairment, our oculometric assessment allows us to characterize the nature of the deficit, to provide insight into the neural substrate, and to assess the effectiveness of countermeasures.

pursuit↗

Precipitation Response to Regional Radiative Forcing

Precipitation shifts can have large impacts on human society and ecosystems. Many aspects of how inhomogeneous radiative forcings influence precipitation remain unclear, however. Here we investigate regional precipitation responses to various forcings imposed in different latitude bands in a climate model. We find that several regions show strong, significant responses to most forcings, but that the magnitude and even the sign depends upon the forcing location and type. Aerosol and ozone forcings typically induce larger responses than equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing, and the influence of remote forcings often outweighs that of local forcings. Consistent with this, ozone and especially aerosols contribute greatly to precipitation changes over the Sahel and South and East Asia in historical simulations, and inclusion of aerosols greatly increases the agreement with observed trends in these areas, which cannot be attributed to either greenhouse gases or natural forcings. Estimates of precipitation responses derived from multiplying our Regional Precipitation Potentials (RPP; the response per unit forcing relationships) by historical forcings typically capture the actual response in full transient climate simulations fairly well, suggesting that these relationships may provide useful metrics. The strong sensitivity to aerosol and ozone forcing suggests that although some air quality improvements may unmask greenhouse gas-induced warming, they have large benefits for reducing regional disruption of the hydrologic cycle.

Shindell, D. T.↗

Lunar Transient Accelerations White Paper

Recently, the United States announced a plan to return astronauts to the moon by 2024 [8]. Lunar landing (and subsequent Mars landing) architecture was not considered when the current NASA standards and vehicle design requirements for crew injury risk were developed. Therefore a gap exists in protecting the crew in planetary landing scenarios. One of the interesting aspects of this design reference mission (DRM)is the consideration of having the crew stand during dynamic phases of flight. Although this approach was contemplated for the Apollo Lunar Module, current NASA standards do not address design solutions that allow the crew to stand. Currently, NASA uses several tools and associated limits to mitigate crew injury because of dynamic loads. Some of these tools are the Brinkley Dynamic Response Criterion (BDRC) model and Hybrid III Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) [10]; and these have several limitations for assessing spaceflight loading environments, as well as specific underlying assumptions that may not be applicable in planetary landing vehicles. The BDRC is a simple lumped mass parameter model developed by the U.S. military, and has been used primarily to evaluate injury risk associated with aircraft ejection systems. The model evaluates seat accelerations in each axis to determine injury risk. Because the model treats the human-seat-restraint system as a single system, it is contingent on a restraint system and seat with similar characteristics of the original test data underlying the model. In particular, the model requires a rigid seat with a minimum natural frequency of 15Hz, minimal seat pan padding, side supports, and multipoint harness. The BDRC model uses undamped natural frequency and damping coefficients based on these requirements and any deviations may render the model injury predictions void. In lunar landing, one expects that a minimal or even no seat with minimal restraints will be employed. In this case, the original model parameters are likely to not be applicable. For capsule-based spacecraft returning crew to Earth, the Hybrid III ATD in various sizes also is used to supplement the BDRC. This analytical tool was added to address limitations in the BDRC related to spacecraft landings while wearing a pressure garment and helmet. Although the Hybrid III ATD has additional measurement capability; head, neck,and lumbar spine responses were the only metrics included because of the limitations imposed by the model.Lunar landing acceleration limits must assume the crew is standing during landing, an orientation for which we have limited data.Although the Apollo missions did employ a standing orientation for the crew, much of the data is lost. Therefore data from othersources havebeen examined to inform lunar landing acceleration limits.

Jeffrey T Somers↗