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NASA NTRS2011

A Latent Heat Retrieval and its Effects on the Intensity and Structure Change of Hurricane Guillermo (1997). Part I: The Algorithm and Observations.

The release of latent heat in clouds is an essential part of the formation and I intensification o~hurricanes. The community knows very little about the intensity and structure of latent heating due largely to inadequate observations. In this paper, a new method for retrieving the latent heating field in hurricanes from airborne Dopple~ radar is presented and fields from rapidly intensifying Hurricane Guillermo (1997) are shown.

Guimond, Stephen R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Changes in Lightning Characteristics as Hurricane Dorian (2019) Reached Peak Intensity

Previous work using land-based lightning detection networks and lightning imagers in low Earth orbit has established that lighting is a useful predictor of TC intensification. Increases in the number of lightning flashes in both the inner core and outer rainbands of hurricanes are linked to hurricane intensification. Sometimes, however, lightning outbreaks can occur in storms that weaken during or after the outbreak. Environmental conditions such as vertical wind shear and land interaction or inner-core structural changes such as secondary eyewall formation can account for some of this discrepancy. Hurricane Dorian (2019), however, exhibited a distinct inner-core lightning outbreak in a low-shear environment with minimal land interaction. The lightning flashes during this outbreak were located on the inner edge of the eyewall, which is not the expected location of enhanced convection during secondary eyewall formation. Regardless, Dorian weakened during and after this lightning outbreak. This presentation will analyze Dorian’s lightning evolution using data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the GOES-16 satellite. GLM provides continuous observations of not only the number and polarity of lightning flashes, but also the size and optical energy of the flashes. Here we show marked differences in the distributions of average flash area and total optical energy between the two most pronounced lightning outbreaks in Dorian’s lifetime: one while the storm was rapidly intensifying and another while the storm began to weaken. During intensification, lightning flashes were fewer but larger and more energetic, whereas during weakening, lightning flashes were much more numerous, but were smaller and less energetic. We present evidence that barotropic mixing between the eye and eyewall could have contributed to both the increase in inner-core lightning and the weakening of Dorian’s storm-scale maximum wind speed. These results suggest that average flash area and total optical energy could help to distinguish between lightning outbreaks that correspond to intensification and outbreaks that correspond to weakening.

Hurricanes↗
NASA NTRS1999

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Characteristics of a Major Tropical Cyclone Tornado Outbreak

It is well known that most tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall along the Gulf coast of the United States spawn at least a few tornadoes. Although most landfalling TCs generate fewer than a dozen such tornadoes, a small proportion produce large swarm outbreaks, with as many as 25 or more tornadoes. Usually, these major outbreaks occur in large, intense hurricane-strength TCs, but on 15-17 August 1994 Tropical Storm Beryl spun off 37 tornadoes along its path from the Florida panhandle through the mid-Atlantic states. Some 32 of these tornadoes occurred on 16 August 1994 from eastern Georgia to southern Virginia, with most of these taking place in South Carolina. Beryl's 37 tornadoes moved it into what was at that time fifth place historically in terms of TC tornado productivity. The Beryl outbreak is especially noteworthy in that at least three of the tornadoes achieved peak intensity of F3 on the Fujita damage intensity scale. Although no fatalities resulted from the Beryl outbreak, at least 50 persons suffered injuries, and property damages totalled more than $50 million . The Beryl outbreak is a good example of a TC whose greatest danger to the public is its post-landfall severe weather. In this respect, and in the character of its swarm outbreak of tornadoes, it resembles another large tornado outbreak spawned by a relatively weak TC, Hurricane Danny of 1985). In the Danny outbreak, numerous shallow mini-supercell storms were found to have occurred, and it was noted that, because of the storms' relatively shallow depth, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning was negligible. Better observations of future TC tornado outbreaks, especially with modern surveillance tools such as Doppler radars and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), were recommended. Although the Beryl tornado outbreak is not the first set of TC-spawned tornado storms to be observed with the NLDN, it is one of the largest and likely the most intense such outbreak. The purpose of this paper is to document the NLDN-derived CG lightning characteristics of Beryl's tornadic storms, and to see how they compare with observations of CG lightning activity in other types of severe storms. In particular, we attempt to quantify the CG flash rates of TC tornadic cells, and to discover if there are any characteristics of their CG activity that may be useful to operational forecasters seeking to distinguish which cells are most likely to produce severe weather.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Hurricane Forecasts with a Global Mesoscale-resolving Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer Preliminary Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005)

It is known that the General Circulation Models (GCMs) have sufficient resolution to accurately simulate hurricane near-eye structure and intensity. To overcome this limitation, the mesoscale-resolving finite-element GCM (fvGCM) has been experimentally deployed on the NASA Columbia supercomputer, and its performance is evaluated choosing hurricane Katrina as an example in this study. On late August 2005 Katrina underwent two stages of rapid intensification and became the sixth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic. Six 5-day simulations of Katrina at both 0.25 deg and 0.125 deg show comparable track forecasts, but the 0,125 deg runs provide much better intensity forecasts, producing center pressure with errors of only +/- 12 hPa. The 0.125 deg simulates better near-eye wind distributions and a more realistic average intensification rate. A convection parameterization (CP) is one of the major limitations in a GCM, the 0.125 deg run with CP disabled produces very encouraging results.

Shen, B.-W.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Effects of Moist Convection on Hurricane Predictability

This study exemplifies inherent uncertainties in deterministic prediction of hurricane formation and intensity. Such uncertainties could ultimately limit the predictability of hurricanes at all time scales. In particular, this study highlights the predictability limit due to the effects on moist convection of initial-condition errors with amplitudes far smaller than those of any observation or analysis system. Not only can small and arguably unobservable differences in the initial conditions result in different routes to tropical cyclogenesis, but they can also determine whether or not a tropical disturbance will significantly develop. The details of how the initial vortex is built can depend on chaotic interactions of mesoscale features, such as cold pools from moist convection, whose timing and placement may significantly vary with minute initial differences. Inherent uncertainties in hurricane forecasts illustrate the need for developing advanced ensemble prediction systems to provide event-dependent probabilistic forecasts and risk assessment.

Zhang, Fuqing↗
NASA NTRS2012

An OSSE on Mesoscale Model Assimilation of Simulated HIRAD-Observed Hurricane Surface Winds

The hazards of landfalling hurricanes are well known, but progress on improving the intensity forecasts of these deadly storms at landfall has been slow. Many cite a lack of high-resolution data sets taken inside the core of a hurricane, and the lack of reliable measurements in extreme conditions near the surface of hurricanes, as possible reasons why even the most state-of-the-art forecasting models cannot seem to forecast intensity changes better. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for observing hurricanes, and is operated and researched by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in partnership with the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida, the University of Michigan, and the University of Alabama in Huntsville. This instrument?s purpose is to study the wind field of a hurricane, specifically observing surface wind speeds and rain rates, in what has traditionally been the most difficult areas for other instruments to study; the high wind and heavy rain regions. Dr. T. N. Krishnamurti has studied various data assimilation techniques for hurricane and monsoon rain rates, and this study builds off of results obtained from utilizing his style of physical initializations of rainfall observations, but obtaining reliable observations in heavy rain regions has always presented trouble to our research of high-resolution rainfall forecasting. Reliable data from these regions at such a high resolution and wide swath as HIRAD provides is potentially very valuable to mesoscale forecasting of hurricane intensity. This study shows how the data assimilation technique of Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to incorporate wind, and later rain rate, data into a mesoscale model forecast of hurricane intensity. The study makes use of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) with a simulated HIRAD dataset sampled during a hurricane and uses EnKF to forecast the track and intensity prediction of the hurricane. Comparisons to truth and error metrics are used to assess the model?s forecast performance.

Albers, Cerese↗
NASA NTRS2000

Evaluation of Bogus Vortex Techniques with Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation

The effectiveness of techniques for creating "bogus" vortices in numerical simulations of hurricanes is examined by using the Penn State/NCAR nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) and its adjoint system. A series of four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4-D VAR) experiments is conducted to generate an initial vortex for Hurricane Georges (1998) in the Atlantic Ocean by assimilating bogus sea-level pressure and surface wind information into the mesoscale numerical model. Several different strategies are tested for improving the vortex representation. The initial vortices produced by the 4-D VAR technique are able to reproduce many of the structural features of mature hurricanes. The vortices also result in significant improvements to the hurricane forecasts in terms of both intensity and track. In particular, with assimilation of only bogus sea-level pressure information, the response in the wind field is contained largely within the divergent component, with strong convergence leading to strong upward motion near the center. Although the intensity of the initial vortex seems to be well represented, a dramatic spin down of the storm occurs within the first 6 h of the forecast. With assimilation of bogus surface wind data only, an expected dominance of the rotational component of the wind field is generated, but the minimum pressure is adjusted inadequately compared to the actual hurricane minimum pressure. Only when both the bogus surface pressure and wind information are assimilated together does the model produce a vortex that represents the actual intensity of the hurricane and results in significant improvements to forecasts of both hurricane intensity and track.

Pu, Zhao-Xia↗
NASA NTRS2007

Electric Field and Lightning Observations in the Core of Category 5 Hurricane Emily

Significant electric fields and lightning activity associated with Hurricane Emily were observed from a NASA high-altitude ER-2 aircraft on July 17, 2005 while this storm developed as a compact but intense category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean south of Cuba. The electrical measurements were acquired as part of the NASA sponsored Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) experiment. In addition to the electrical measurements, the aircraft's remote sensing instrument complement also included active radars, passive microwave, visible and infrared radiometers, and a temperature sounder providing details on the dynamical, microphysical, and environmental structure, characteristics and development of this intense storm. Cloud-to-ground lightning location data from Vaisala's long range lightning detection network were also acquired and displayed in real-time along with electric fields measured at the aircraft. These data and associated display also supported aircraft guidance and vectoring during the mission. During the observing period, flash rates in excess of 3 to 5 flashes per minute, as well as large electric field and field change values were observed as the storm appeared to undergo periods of intensification, especially in the northwest quadrant in the core eyewall regions. This is in contrast to most hurricanes that tend to be characterized by weak electrification and little or no lightning activity except in the outer rain bands. It should be noted that this storm also had significant lightning associated with its rain bands.

Blakeslee, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2014

Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013: Part 1

A tropical cyclone is described as a warm-core, nonfrontal, synoptic-scale system that originates over tropical or subtropical waters, having organized deep convection and closed surface wind circulation (counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere) about a well defined center. When its sustained wind speed equals 34-63 kt, it is called a tropical (or subtropical) storm and is given a name (i.e., alternating male and female names, beginning in 1979); when its sustained wind speed equals 64-95 kt, it is called a hurricane (at least in the Eastern Pacific and North Atlantic basin); and when its sustained wind speed equals 96 kt or higher, it is called an intense or major hurricane (i.e., categories 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). Although tropical cyclones have been reported and described since the voyages of Columbus, a detailed record of their occurrences extends only from 1851 to the present, with the most reliable portion extending only from about 1945 to the present, owing to the use of near-continuous routine reconnaissance aircraft monitoring flights and the use of satellite imagery (beginning in 1960; see Davis). Even so, the record may still be incomplete, possibly missing at least one tropical cyclone per yearly hurricane season, especially prior to the use of continuous satellite monitoring. In fact, often an unnamed tropical cyclone is included in the year-end listing of events at the conclusion of the season, following post-season analysis (e.g., as happened in 2011 and 2013, each having one unnamed event). In this two-part Technical Publication (TP), statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones are examined for the interval 1960-2013, the weather satellite era. Part 1 examines some 25 parameters of tropical cyclones (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.), while part 2 examines the relationship of these parameters against specific climate-related factors. These studies are a continuation of nearly two decades of previous tropical cyclone-related investigations.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

ER-2 Doppler Radar (EDOP) Investigations of the Eyewall of Hurricane Bonnie CAMEX-3

A persistent, mesoscale region of intense eyewall convection contained within Hurricane Bonnie on 23 August 1998 is examined from multiple observations synthesized from the NASA ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft. The intense convection occurred late in the day as Bonnie was attaining its minimum central pressure and during a stage when the inner core featured a markedly asymmetric structure. The main purpose of this paper is to describe the internal structure of a convective burst and its relationship to the warm core using a synthesis of high-resolution satellite, aircraft radar, and in situ data. An exceptionally vigorous eyewall tower penetrating to nearly 18 km is described. A second intense eyewall tower, adjacent to the eye, is shown to be associated with a mesoscale subsiding current of air that extends horizontally nearly 20 km into the eye interior. The subsidence occupies a substantial depth within the eye and appears to be a much larger scale feature than the convectively-induced, symmetric overturning which commonly occurs on the upper-level flanks of convective towers in other tropical environments.

Heymsfield, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Storm Surge Measurement with an Airborne Scanning Radar Altimeter

Over the years, hurricane track and intensity forecasts and storm surge models and the digital terrain and bathymetry data they depend on have improved significantly. Strides have also been made in knowledge of the detailed variation of the surface wind field driving the surge. The area of least improvement has been in obtaining data on the details of the temporal/spatial variation of the storm surge dome of water as it evolves and inundates the land to evaluate the performance of the numerical models. Tide gages in the vicinity of the landfall are frequently destroyed by the surge. Survey crews dispatched after the event provide no temporal information and only indirect indications of the maximum surge envelope over land. The landfall of Hurricane Bonnie on 26 August 1998, with a surge less than 2 m, provided an excellent opportunity to demonstrate the potential benefits of direct airborne measurement of the temporal/spatial evolution of storm surge. Despite a 160 m variation in aircraft altitude, an 11.5 m variation in the elevation of the mean sea surface relative to the ellipsoid over the flight track, and the tidal variation over the 5 hour data acquisition interval, a survey-quality Global Positioning System (GPS) aircraft trajectory allowed the NASA Scanning Radar Altimeter carried by a NOAA hurricane research aircraft to produce storm surge measurements that generally fell between the predictions of the NOAA SLOSH model and the North Carolina State University storm surge model.

Wright, C. W.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Infrared digital data analysis of severe storms and hurricanes from geosynchronous satellite

A severe storm in Louisiana on March 24, 1976 is considered, taking into account gravity wave observations made with the aid of a Doppler sounder array and remote sensing studies of the cloud top. Attention is also given to the Hurricane Frederic on September 12, 1979. A study which takes into account the observations regarding the gravity waves and the satellite observations of clouds associated with Hurricane Frederic shows that gravity waves were excited by overshooting turrets above the tropopause. The altitude of the turrets above the tropopause is an indication for the intensity of a cyclone, while the change in cloud top height provides an indication related to the amplification of hurricane intensity.

Hung, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Objective Operational Utilization of Satellite Microwave Scatterometer Observations of Tropical Cyclones

This study has demonstrated that high-resolution scatterometer measurements in tropical cyclones and other high-marine surface wind regimes may be retrieved accurately for wind speeds up to about 35 mls (1-hour average at 10 m) when the scatterometer data are processed through a revised geophysical model function, and a spatial adaptive algorithm is applied which utilizes the fact that wind direction is so tightly constrained in tile inner core of severe marine storms that wind direction may be prescribed from conventional data. This potential is demonstrated through case studies with NSCAT data in a severe West Pacific Typhoon (Violet, 1996) and an intense North Atlantic hurricane (Lili, 1996). However, operational scatterometer winds from NSCAT and QuickScat in hurricanes and severe winter storms are biased low in winds above 25 m/s. We have developed an inverse model to specify the entire surface wind field about a tropical cyclone from operational QuickScat scatterometer measurements within 150 nm of a storm center with the restriction that only wind speeds up to 20 m/s are used until improved model function are introduced. The inverse model is used to specify the wind field over the entire life-cycle of Hurricane Floyd (1999) for use to drive an ocean wave model. The wind field compares very favorably with wind fields developed from the copious aircraft flight level winds obtained in this storm.

Cardone, Vincent J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Effects of Doubled CO2 on Tropical Sea-Surface Temperature (SSTs) for Onset of Deep Convection and Maximum SST-GCM Simulations Based Inferences

A primary concern of CO2-induced warming is the associated rise of tropical (10S-10N) seasurface temperatures (SSTs). GISS Model-E was used to produce two sets of simulations-one with the present-day and one with doubled CO2 in the atmosphere. The intrinsic usefulness of model guidance in the tropics was confirmed when the model simulated realistic convective coupling between SSTs and atmospheric soundings and that the simulated-data correlations between SSTs and 300 hPa moiststatic energies were found to be similar to the observed. Model predicted SST limits: (i) one for the onset of deep convection and (ii) one for maximum SST, increased in the doubled C02 case. Changes in cloud heights, cloud frequencies, and cloud mass-fractions showed that convective-cloud changes increased the SSTs, while warmer mixed-layer of the doubled CO2 contained approximately 10% more water vapor; clearly that would be conducive to more intense storms and hurricanes.

Sud, Y. C.↗