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Measurement of the abundance of several natural stratospheric trace constituents from high altitude aircraft

A summary report of the initial results obtained from near-infrared observations of the stratosphere from the Anglo-French SST Concorde is presented, together with the most recent results from previous flights aboard an Air Force NC-135. The measurements were made with a fast Fourier interferometer spectrometer operating in the 1.2- to 7.5-micron range of the infrared with a spectral resolution of 0.25 per cm. For the Concorde experiments, flight times and trajectories were selected which allowed the sun to be viewed near the horizon with the relative solar elevation angle held constant throughout the measurements. Results reported include the identification of features due to N2O, NO, NO2, CO, CO2, CH4, H2O and indications of their latitudinal variations.

Farmer, C. B.↗

Upcoming and Future Missions in the Area of Infrared Astronomy: Spacecraft and Ground-based Observations

The IRIS instrument on the Voyager spacecrafts made major discoveries with regard to the giant planets, their moons and rings and paved the way for future infrared observations for planetary missions within our solar system. The CIRS instrument of Cassini with much greater spectral-spatial resolution and sensitivity than that provided by IRIS is now rapidly approaching the Saturnian system with orbit insertion on July 1, 2004, for which CIRS is expected to provide an order of magnitude advance beyond that provided by IRIS. The Mars program is also presently dominated by infrared observations in the near to mid-infrared spectral bands for missions such as Mars Global Surveyor and its TES instrument and Odyssey with its THEMIS instrument. In the case of Earth science we have such missions as TIMED, which makes infrared observations of the thermosphere using the SABER instrument. With the newly formed New Frontiers Program we have the opportunity for $650M missions such as Kuiper Belt-Pluto Explorer and Jupiter Polar Orbiter with Probes. Under the Flagship line, once per decade, we have the opportunity for $1B missions for which Europa is presently being considered; for this mission infrared measurements could look for hot spots within the maze of cracks and faults on Europa s surface. On Kuiper Belt- Pluto there is an imaging near-IR spectrometer called LEISA. Another mission on the horizon is Titan Orbiter Aerorover Mission (TOAM) for which there is planned a state-of-art version of CIRS called TIRS on the orbiter that will map out the atmospheric composition with unprecedented wavelength coverage and spectral-spatial resolution. This instrument will also provide temperature maps of the surface of Titan to look for hot spots where life may form. On the same mission there will be a descent imager on the Aerorover (i.e., balloon) similar to that provided by LEISA on the Pluto mission to provide compositional-topographical maps of Titan s surface. Other future mission will also be discussed. Improved thermal detectors could have important applications in solar physics, specifically in the detection of far-IR synchrotron emission from energetic electrons in solar flares. For infrared astronomy we have missions like SIRTF and JWST, which will cover the spectral range from near-IR to far-IR in the search and probing of both new and old planetary systems in our galaxy and the measurement of the most distant galaxies of our universe. SIRTF is scheduled to be launched in August 2003, while JWST will be launched next decade. Another mission is TPF, which will use interferometer techniques at infrared wavelengths to search for planetary systems beyond 2010. With regard to ground based telescopes we have, for example, the twin 10 meter Keck telescopes and the IRTF telescope at Mauna Kea. The Keck telescopes are presently using interferometer techniques. Over the next several decades there are plans for 50 meter to 200 meter telescopes providing near-IR to far-IR measurements with the eventual plan to combine all telescopes using interferometer techniques to provide unprecedented spectral-spatial resolution and sensitivity.

Sittler, E. C., Jr.↗

1,2-Dichlorohexafluoro-Cyclobutane (1,2-c-C4F6Cl2, R-316c) a Potent Ozone Depleting Substance and Greenhouse Gas: Atmospheric Loss Processes, Lifetimes, and Ozone Depletion and Global Warming Potentials for the (E) and (Z) stereoisomers

The atmospheric processing of (E)- and (Z)-1,2-dichlorohexafluorocyclobutane (1,2-c-C4F6Cl2, R-316c) was examined in this work as the ozone depleting (ODP) and global warming (GWP) potentials of this proposed replacement compound are presently unknown. The predominant atmospheric loss processes and infrared absorption spectra of the R-316c isomers were measured to provide a basis to evaluate their atmospheric lifetimes and, thus, ODPs and GWPs. UV absorption spectra were measured between 184.95 to 230 nm at temperatures between 214 and 296 K and a parametrization for use in atmospheric modeling is presented. The Cl atom quantum yield in the 193 nm photolysis of R- 316c was measured to be 1.90 +/- 0.27. Hexafluorocyclobutene (c-C4F6) was determined to be a photolysis co-product with molar yields of 0.7 and 1.0 (+/-10%) for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c, respectively. The 296 K total rate coefficient for the O(1D) + R-316c reaction, i.e., O(1D) loss, was measured to be (1.56 +/- 0.11) × 10(exp −10)cu cm/ molecule/s and the reactive rate coefficient, i.e., R-316c loss, was measured to be (1.36 +/- 0.20) × 10(exp −10)cu cm/molecule/s corresponding to a approx. 88% reactive yield. Rate coefficient upper-limits for the OH and O3 reaction with R-316c were determined to be <2.3 × 10(exp −17) and <2.0 × 10(exp −22)cu cm/molecule/s, respectively, at 296 K. The quoted uncertainty limits are 2(sigma) and include estimated systematic errors. Local and global annually averaged lifetimes for the (E)- and (Z)-R-316c isomers were calculated using a 2-D atmospheric model to be 74.6 +/- 3 and 114.1 +/-10 years, respectively, where the estimated uncertainties are due solely to the uncertainty in the UV absorption spectra. Stratospheric photolysis is the predominant atmospheric loss process for both isomers with the O(1D) reaction making a minor, approx. 2% for the (E) isomer and 7% for the (Z) isomer, contribution to the total atmospheric loss. Ozone depletion potentials for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c were calculated using the 2-D model to be 0.46 and 0.54, respectively. Infrared absorption spectra for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c were measured at 296 K and used to estimate their radiative efficiencies (REs) and GWPs; 100-year time-horizon GWPs of 4160 and 5400 were obtained for (E)- and (Z)-R-316c, respectively. Both isomers of R-316c are shown in this work to be long-lived ozone depleting substances and potent greenhouse gases.

UV cross section↗

Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Elemental Analysis and Middle Infrared Spectroscopy from the Kougarok Fire Complex, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2022

In September and October of 2022, soil samples were collected at the Kougarok Fire Complex near mile marker 86 of the Nome-Taylor Highway on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. This study site was chosen due to its unique fire history, as the Kougarok Fire Complex has experienced multiple wildfires since 1971. As the Arctic warms, the risk of Arctic tundra fires continues to increase due to warmer summer temperatures and higher frequency of lightning. Burned soil carbon or pyrogenic carbon (PyC) is an important component of C cycling after wildfire, and one that is often overlooked in tundra systems where wildfires are historically rare. To better understand PyC signatures and quantify PyC presence in post-regeneration permafrost regions, soils were sampled from soil pits within the 1971, 2002, and 2019 burn sites, as well as two unburned control sites. At each site, three soil pits were dug to the permafrost table. Soil samples were collected with a trowel from the face of each pit at 10 cm increments down to the permafrost table. Thaw depth, maximum vegetation height, vegetation species composition, and O horizon depth were also collected at each soil pit. An HS2 Hydrosense II Handheld Soil Moisture Sensor was used to collect volumetric soil moisture content at each 10 cm sampling increment. This dataset includes one *.csv of middle infrared spectroscopy measurements of soil samples, one *.csv of field observations, one *.csv of carbon and nitrogen analysis of soil samples, and one *.kml of sampling locations.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic) was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intercalibration of Mars Global Surveyor Datasets

The calibration and validation of satellite soundings of atmospheric variables is always a difficult prospect, but this difficulty is greatly magnified when the measurements are made at a different planet, whose meteorology is poorly known and poorly constrained, and for which there are virtually no prospects of obtaining ground truth. The Mars Global Surveyor which has been circling Mars in its mapping orbit since early 1999 includes a variety of instruments capable of making atmospheric observations: the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) which takes more than 100,000 nadir-view infrared spectra per day (although these observations are confined to the 2am - 2pm time of the sun-fixed orbit); much less frequent TES limb scans (still only at 2am and 2pm); the Mars Horizon Sensor Assembly measures side-looking broadband 15 micrometer radiation; Radio Science occultations at favorable seasons give high resolution temperature profiles; the Mars orbiter Camera and Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter have made water, dust, and carbon dioxide cloud detections. These observations are now being supplemented by high-resolution 15 micron measurements by THEMIS on Mars Odyssey. Thus, all of these observations are made at different times and places. Data assimilation techniques are being used to fuse this vast array of observations into a single dataset that best represents our understanding of the Martian atmosphere, its current meteorological state, and the relevant instrumental properties.

Houben, Howard↗

The Surface Compositions of Pluto and Charon

The surface of Pluto as it is understood on the eve of the encounter of the New Horizons spacecraft (mid-2015) consists of a spatially heterogeneous mix of solid N2, CH4, CO, C2H6, and an additional component that imparts color, and may not be an ice. The known molecular ices are detected by near-infrared spectroscopy. The N2 ice occurs in the hexagonal crystalline b-phase, stable at T greater than 35.6 K. Spectroscopic evidence for wavelength shifts in the CH4 bands attests to the complex mixing of CH4 and N2 in the solid state, in accordance with the phase diagram for N2 + CH4. Spectra obtained at several aspects of Plutos surface as the planet rotates over its 6.4-day period show variability in the distribution of CH4 and N2 ices, with stronger CH4 absorption bands associated with regions of higher albedo, in correlation with the visible rotational light curve. CO and N2 ice absorptions are also strongly modulated by the rotation period; the bands are strongest on the anti-Charon hemisphere of Pluto. Longer term changes in the strengths of Plutos absorption bands occur as the viewing geometry changes on seasonal time-scales, although a complete cycle has not been observed. The non-ice component of Plutos surface may be a relatively refractory material produced by the UV and cosmic-ray irradiation of the surface ices and gases in the atmosphere, although UV does not generally penetrate the atmospheric CH4 to interact with the surface. Laboratory simulations indicate that a rich chemistry ensues by the irradiation of mixtures of the ices known to occur on Pluto, but specific compounds have not yet been identified in spectra of the planet. Charons surface is characterized by spectral bands of crystalline H2O ice, and a band attributed to one or more hydrates of NH3. Amorphous H2O ice may also be present; the balance between the amorphization and crystallization processes on Charon remains to be clarified. The albedo of Charon and its generally spatially uniform neutral color indicate that a component, not yet identified, is mixed in some way with the H2O and NH3nH2O ices. Among the many known small bodies in the transneptunian region, several share characteristics with Pluto and Charon, including the presence of CH4, N2, C2H6, H2O ices, as well as components that yield a wide variety of surface albedo and color. The New Horizons investigation of the Pluto-Charon system will generate new insight into the physical properties of the broader transneptunian population, and eventually to the corresponding bodies expected in the numerous planetary systems currently being discovered elsewhere in the Galaxy.

surface composition↗

The Viking Mars lander camera

The 7.3 kg cameras for the 1976 Viking Mars expedition feature an array of 12 silicon photodiodes, including six spectral bands for color and near-infrared imaging with an angular resolution of 0.12 deg and four focus steps for broadband imaging, with an improved angular resolution of 0.04 deg. The field of view in elevation ranges from 40 deg above to 60 deg below the horizon, and in azimuth ranges to 342.5 deg. The cameras are mounted 0.8 m apart to provide a stereo view of the area accessible to a surface sampler for biological and chemical investigations. The scanning rates are synchronized to the lander data transmission rates of 16000 bits per sec to the Viking orbiters as relay stations and 250 bits per sec directly to earth. However, image data can also be stored on a lander tape recorder. About 10 million bits of image data will be transmitted during most days of the 60-day-long mission planned for each lander.

Huck, F. O.↗

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. II. EHT and Multiwavelength Observations, Data Processing, and Calibration

We present Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) 1.3 mm measurements of the radio source located at the position of the supermassive black hole Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), collected during the 2017 April 5–11 campaign. The observations were carried out with eight facilities at six locations across the globe. Novel calibration methods are employed to account for Sgr A*'s flux variability. The majority of the 1.3 mm emission arises from horizon scales, where intrinsic structural source variability is detected on timescales of minutes to hours. The effects of interstellar scattering on the image and its variability are found to be subdominant to intrinsic source structure. The calibrated visibility amplitudes, particularly the locations of the visibility minima, are broadly consistent with a blurred ring with a diameter of ∼50 μas, as determined in later works in this series. Contemporaneous multiwavelength monitoring of Sgr A* was performed at 22, 43, and 86 GHz and at near-infrared and X-ray wavelengths. Several X-ray flares from Sgr A* are detected by Chandra, one at low significance jointly with Swift on 2017 April 7 and the other at higher significance jointly with NuSTAR on 2017 April 11. The brighter April 11 flare is not observed simultaneously by the EHT but is followed by a significant increase in millimeter flux variability immediately after the X-ray outburst, indicating a likely connection in the emission physics near the event horizon. We compare Sgr A*’s broadband flux during the EHT campaign to its historical spectral energy distribution and find that both the quiescent emission and flare emission are consistent with its long-term behavior.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Size and Shape Constraints of (486958) Arrokoth from Stellar Occultations

We present the results from four stellar occultations by (486958) Arrokoth, the flyby target of the New Horizons extended mission. Three of the four efforts led to positive detections of the body, and all constrained the presence of rings and other debris, finding none. Twenty-five mobile stations were deployed for 2017 June 3 and augmented by fixed telescopes. There were no positive detections from this effort. The event on 2017 July 10 was observed by the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy with one very short chord. Twenty-four deployed stations on 2017 July 17 resulted in five chords that clearly showed a complicated shape consistent with a contact binary with rough dimensions of 20 by 30 km for the overall outline. A visible albedo of 10% was derived from these data. Twenty-two systems were deployed for the fourth event on 2018 August 4 and resulted in two chords. The combination of the occultation data and the flyby results provides a significant refinement of the rotation period, now estimated to be 15.9380 ± 0.0005 hr. The occultation data also provided high-precision astrometric constraints on the position of the object that were crucial for supporting the navigation for the New Horizons flyby. This work demonstrates an effective method for obtaining detailed size and shape information and probing for rings and dust on distant Kuiper Belt objects as well as being an important source of positional data that can aid in spacecraft navigation that is particularly useful for small and distant bodies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SCHOTT laser glass [Invited]

Laser glass is a highly engineered optical material that enables the amplification of light in laser systems. It is known for being the heart of the largest laser facilities ever built, where thousands of neodymium-doped meter-sized slabs of laser glass create intense beams of near-infrared laser radiation used to study fusion reactions. Or if doped with ytterbium and erbium, laser glass can be made into millimeter-sized components empowering range-finders and dermatological lasers. Decades of development have poised laser glass for the next challenge on the horizon: amplifying light for sustainable inertial fusion energy power plants.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fifty Years of Exploring Pluto: from Telescopes to the New Horizons Mission

Pluto was discovered in 1930 at Lowell Observatory in the belated resumption of a wide-field photographic search originally be-gun at Percival Lowell’s direction prior to his death in 1916. Photometry in the 1950s established the rotation period of 6.4 hours and a color redder than the Sun, but the mass, density, size and albedo were unknown. Near-infrared photometry in 1976 indicated the presence of CH4 frost, suggestive of a relatively high surface albedo and a diameter comparable to the Moon. The large satellite Charon was discovered in 1978, followed by an epoch of mutual transits and occultations of Pluto and Charon from 1985 to 1990, as viewed from Earth. These events resulted in reliable sizes and masses of the two bodies, as well as the orbit of Charon. The mutual events also demonstrated that Pluto and Charon are in locked synchronous rotation and revolution, a configuration unique among the planets. The atmosphere of Pluto was discovered in 1988 from a stellar occultation observed from the Kuiper Airborne Observatory and ground stations, with indications of a haze layer (or a temperature inversion) in the lower atmosphere. Sub-sequent stellar occultations showed that the extent of the atmosphere is variable on a timescale of a few years. The spectroscopic detection of N2 and CO ice in 1993 demonstrated that the atmosphere must be primarily composed of N2, with CH4 and CO as minor components; the spectroscopic detection of gaseous CH4 was reported in 1994.

Cruikshank, D. P.↗

The Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere /LIMS/ experiment - Temperature and nitrogen dioxide results

The Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) is a satellite-borne radiometer which scans across the earth's limb, measuring infrared radiation emitted by specific atmospheric gases in a number of broad channels. Instrumentation includes a folded telescope, which focuses the radiation from the limb onto an array of six mercury-cadmium-telluride detectors. A scan mirror within the telescope sweeps the fields of view across the horizon, with each up or down scan lasting 12 seconds. The measurements are inverted to yield distributions of temperature and nitrogen dioxide. The temperature is determined from two channels covering the intervals 595-739 per cm and 645-673 per cm of the 15 micron bands of CO2, with maximum signal to noise ratio of 500-1000. Nitrogen dioxide is determined from measurements in a channel from 1580-1613 per cm, with an S/N of approximately 100. Results show that the LIMS temperature and nitrogen dioxide data are characterized by high precision.

Gille, J. C.↗

Preliminary results of the Apollo 17 infrared scanning radiometer

The thermal emission of the lunar surface has been mapped by an infrared scanner from lunar orbit. Samples from approximately 250,000 scans reveal the full range of lunar temperatures from 80 to 400 K. The temperature resolution was 1 K with about plus or minus 2 K absolute precision. Spatial resolution was approximately 2 km over most of the horizon-to-horizon scan. The total mapped area amounted to approximately 30% of the lunar surface. The data currently available confirms the large population of nighttime thermal anomalies in western Oceanus Procellarum predicted by earth-based observations. Most of these 'hot spots' are associated with fresh impact features or boulder fields. Also seen in the data are 'cold spots' where the local nighttime temperature is depressed relative to the general soil background. Such regions exhibiting low surface conductivity are inferred to be relatively young, nonimpact features.

Mendell, W. W.↗

NASA's Physics of the Cosmos and Cosmic Origins Technology Development Programs

The strategic astrophysics missions of the coming decades will help answer the questions "How did our universe begin and evolve?" and "How did galaxies, stars, and planets come to be?" Enabling these missions requires advances in key technologies far beyond the current state of the art. NASA's Physics of the Cosmos (PCOS) and Cosmic Origins (COR) Program Offices manage technology maturation projects funded through the Strategic Astrophysics Technology (SAT) program to accomplish such advances. The PCOS and COR Program Offices, residing at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), were established in 2011, and serve as the implementation arm for the Astrophysics Division at NASA Headquarters. We present an overview of the Programs' technology development activities and the current technology investment portfolio of 23 technology advancements. We discuss the process for addressing community-provided technology gaps and Technology Management Board (TMB)-vetted prioritization and investment recommendations that inform the SAT program. The process improves the transparency and relevance of our technology investments, provides the community a voice in the process, and promotes targeted external technology investments by defining needs and identifying customers. The Programs' priorities are driven by strategic direction from the Astrophysics Division, which is informed by the National Research Council's (NRC) "New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics" (NWNH) 2010 Decadal Survey report [1], the Astrophysics Implementation Plan (AIP) [2] as updated, and the Astrophysics Roadmap "Enduring Quests, Daring Visions" [3]. These priorities include technology development for missions to study dark energy, gravitational waves, X-ray and inflation probe science, and large far-infrared (IR) and ultraviolet (UV)/optical/IR telescopes to conduct imaging and spectroscopy studies. The SAT program is the Astrophysics Division's main investment method to mature technologies that will be identified by study teams set up to inform the 2020 Decadal Survey process on several large astrophysics mission concepts.

SPIE paper↗

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. I. The Shadow of the Supermassive Black Hole in the Center of the Milky Way

We present the first Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), the Galactic center source associated with a supermassive black hole. These observations were conducted in 2017 using a global interferometric array of eight telescopes operating at a wavelength of λ = 1.3 mm. The EHT data resolve a compact emission region with intrahour variability. A variety of imaging and modeling analyses all support an image that is dominated by a bright, thick ring with a diameter of 51.8 ± 2.3 μas (68% credible interval). The ring has modest azimuthal brightness asymmetry and a comparatively dim interior. Using a large suite of numerical simulations, we demonstrate that the EHT images of Sgr A* are consistent with the expected appearance of a Kerr black hole with mass ∼4 × 10$^{6}$ M $_{⊙}$, which is inferred to exist at this location based on previous infrared observations of individual stellar orbits, as well as maser proper-motion studies. Our model comparisons disfavor scenarios where the black hole is viewed at high inclination (i > 50°), as well as nonspinning black holes and those with retrograde accretion disks. Our results provide direct evidence for the presence of a supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, and for the first time we connect the predictions from dynamical measurements of stellar orbits on scales of 10$^{3}$–10$^{5}$ gravitational radii to event-horizon-scale images and variability. Furthermore, a comparison with the EHT results for the supermassive black hole M87* shows consistency with the predictions of general relativity spanning over three orders of magnitude in central mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Radiolysis of Amino Acids in Outer Solar-System Ice Analogs

Amino acids have been found in cometary dust particles and in the organic component of meteorites. These molecules, important for pre-biotic chemistry and for active biological systems, might be formed in cold planetary or interstellar environments and then delivered to H20-rich surfaces in the outer solar system. Many models for the availability of organic species on Earth and elsewhere depend on the ability of these molecules to survive in radiation-rich space environments. This poster presents results of O.8-MeV proton radiolysis of ice films at lS-140K. using infrared spectroscopy, the destruction rates of glycine, alanine, and phenylalanine have been determined for both pure films and those containing amino acids diluted in H2o. our results are discussed in terms of the survivability of these molecules in the icy surfaces present in the outer solar system and the possibility of their detection by instruments on board the New Horizons spacecraft

Gerakines, Perry A.↗

Developing a Hydrological Monitoring and Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting System for South and Southeast Asian River Basins

South and Southeast Asia is subject to significant hydrometeorological extremes, including drought. Under rising temperatures, growing populations, and an apparent weakening of the South Asian monsoon in recent decades, concerns regarding drought and its potential impacts on water and food security are on the rise. Reliable sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hydrological forecasts could, in principle, help governments and international organizations to better assess risk and act in the face of an oncoming drought. Here, we leverage recent improvements in S2S meteorological forecasts and the growing power of Earth Observations to provide more accurate monitoring of hydrological states for forecast initialization. Information from both sources is merged in a South and Southeast Asia sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S), developed collaboratively with the NASA SERVIR program and end-users across the region. This system applies the Noah-MultiParameterization (NoahMP) Land Surface Model (LSM) in the NASA Land Information System (LIS), driven by downscaled meteorological fields from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation products (CHIRP and CHIRPS) to optimize initial conditions. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model - sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecasts, downscaled using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) tool and quantile mapping, are then applied to drive 5-km resolution hydrological forecasts to a 9-month forecast time horizon. Results show that the skillful predictions of root zone soil moisture can be made one to two months in advance for forecasts initialized in rainy seasons and up to 8 months when initialized in dry seasons. The memory of accurate initial conditions can positively contribute to forecast skills throughout the entire 9-month prediction period in areas with limited precipitation. This SAHFS-S2S has been operationalized at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to support drought monitoring and warning needs in the region.

Yifan Zhou↗

Monitoring Disasters by Use of Instrumented Robotic Aircraft

Efforts are under way to develop data-acquisition, data-processing, and data-communication systems for monitoring disasters over large geographic areas by use of uninhabited aerial systems (UAS) robotic aircraft that are typically piloted by remote control. As integral parts of advanced, comprehensive disaster- management programs, these systems would provide (1) real-time data that would be used to coordinate responses to current disasters and (2) recorded data that would be used to model disasters for the purpose of mitigating the effects of future disasters and planning responses to them. The basic idea is to equip UAS with sensors (e.g., conventional video cameras and/or multispectral imaging instruments) and to fly them over disaster areas, where they could transmit data by radio to command centers. Transmission could occur along direct line-of-sight paths and/or along over-the-horizon paths by relay via spacecraft in orbit around the Earth. The initial focus is on demonstrating systems for monitoring wildfires; other disasters to which these developments are expected to be applicable include floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, leaks of toxic chemicals, and military attacks. The figure depicts a typical system for monitoring a wildfire. In this case, instruments aboard a UAS would generate calibrated thermal-infrared digital image data of terrain affected by a wildfire. The data would be sent by radio via satellite to a data-archive server and image-processing computers. In the image-processing computers, the data would be rapidly geo-rectified for processing by one or more of a large variety of geographic-information- system (GIS) and/or image-analysis software packages. After processing by this software, the data would be both stored in the archive and distributed through standard Internet connections to a disaster-mitigation center, an investigator, and/or command center at the scene of the fire. Ground assets (in this case, firefighters and/or firefighting equipment) would also be monitored in real time by use of Global Positioning System (GPS) units and radio communication links between the assets and the UAS. In this scenario, the UAS would serve as a data-relay station in the sky, sending packets of information concerning the locations of assets to the image-processing computer, wherein this information would be incorporated into the geo-rectified images and maps. Hence, the images and maps would enable command-center personnel to monitor locations of assets in real time and in relation to locations affected by the disaster. Optionally, in case of a disaster that disrupted communications, the UAS could be used as an airborne communication relay station to partly restore communications to the affected area. A prototype of a system of this type was demonstrated in a project denoted the First Response Experiment (Project FiRE). In this project, a controlled outdoor fire was observed by use of a thermal multispectral scanning imager on a UAS that delivered image data to a ground station via a satellite uplink/ downlink telemetry system. At the ground station, the image data were geo-rectified in nearly real time for distribution via the Internet to firefighting managers. Project FiRE was deemed a success in demonstrating several advances essential to the eventual success of the continuing development effort.

Wegener, Steven S.↗