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DOE OSTI2019

Estimating influenza incidence using search query deceptiveness and generalized ridge regression

Seasonal influenza is a sometimes surprisingly impactful disease, causing thousands of deaths per year along with much additional morbidity. Timely knowledge of the outbreak state is valuable for managing an effective response. The current state of the art is to gather this knowledge using in-person patient contact. While accurate, this is time-consuming and expensive. This has motivated inquiry into new approaches using internet activity traces, based on the theory that lay observations of health status lead to informative features in internet data. These approaches risk being deceived by activity traces having a coincidental, rather than informative, relationship to disease incidence; to our knowledge, this risk has not yet been quantitatively explored. We evaluated both simulated and real activity traces of varying deceptiveness for influenza incidence estimation using linear regression. We found that deceptiveness knowledge does reduce error in such estimates, that it may help automatically- selected features perform as well or better than features that require human curation, and that a semantic distance measure derived from the Wikipedia article category tree serves as a useful proxy for deceptiveness. This suggests that disease incidence estimation models should incorporate not only data about how internet features map to incidence but also additional data to estimate feature deceptiveness. By doing so, we may gain one more step along the path to accurate, reliable disease incidence estimation using internet data. This capability would improve public health by decreasing the cost and increasing the timeliness of such estimates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

User Access to Scientific Facilities via 5G: A Cyber Security Thought Experiment

5G is more than an over-the-air radio technology upgrade. It is a strategy to extend Mobile Network Operator service offerings beyond traditional voice, instant messaging and Internet access. 5G Mobile Network Operators will offer new telecommunication services that include enhanced guarantees of confidentiality, integrity and availability. How could such services change the way Science collaborations connect scientists to supercomputers and other scientific facilities? Current scientific collaborations implicitly trust cloud service providers to securely store and process data. The perceived risks of outsourcing Science data security are counterbalanced by assurances that cloud providers operate at a scale that allows them to implement security measures impractical for Science collaborations (e.g. continuous system administrator behavioral monitoring and strict individual separation of duties). If that is true for a cloud service provider like Amazon Web Services (2018 revenue: $25.7 billion), could it also be true for Mobile Network Operators like Verizon Wireless (2018 revenue: $91.7 billion) or AT&T Mobility (2018 revenue: $71.3 billion)? DOE Leadership Class supercomputer facility users currently access them from the public Internet via Secure Shell. The sponsors and operators of the supercomputer facilities have determined that the public Internet path between the Scientist’s Device and the Login Node does not natively provide enough confidentiality or integrity to protect those communications. Therefore, the facilities achieve additional confidentiality and integrity by requiring Secure Shell encryption across those untrusted network paths. Using 5G Network Slice technology, a Mobile Network Operator may offer communication services between supercomputer users and facilities that natively provide confidentiality and integrity guarantees. Sponsors and operators of supercomputer facilities may determine that these guarantees provide enough confidentiality and integrity to protect those communications. If so, a 5G Network Slice could replace an SSH session running over the public Internet. Finally, this use case could be extended to other Office of Science user facility access requirements. Consider microscopy instruments at (e.g.) the Center for Nanoscale Materials or the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory. The embedded systems controlling such instruments may not always support encrypted network access technologies like SSH. 5G Network Slices may offer an alternative to current VPN or SSH tunneling techniques, with additional benefits like guaranteed minimum bandwidth.

5G↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards generic memory forensic framework for programmable logic controllers

A Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) is a microprocessor-based controller that is used to automate physical processes in critical infrastructure and various other industries and manufacturing sectors. Initially, PLCs were completely isolated from the Internet, and cyber security was not incorporated at the time of development. The introduction of industry 4.0 and the evolution of ICS systems to communicate over public IP addresses from the Internet enhanced productivity and efficiency, but Internet connectivity exposed the systems and their vulnerabilities, which led to an increase in cyber attacks. When a system is sabotaged/compromised, security analysts need to get to the root cause of the attack as quickly as possible to recover the system. To do so, memory forensic analysis is critical to provide a unique insight into the run-time memory activities and extract a reliable source of evidence. In this paper, we analyze the memory structure of the Schneider Electric Modicon M221 PLC. To build a memory profile, we reverse engineer the communication protocol and conduct differential analysis to gain knowledge about the structure of the memory and the low-level representation of control logic instructions. We then identify dynamic and static memory regions by modifying different project fields and conducting differential analysis, which allows us to identify boundaries of critical memory structures and extract important forensic artifacts that can be found in the memory. The Python implementation of the memory profile can help reduce the time and effort required for manual analysis in case of cyber incident or system failure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Developing Novel Performance Measures for Traffic Congestion Management and Operational Planning Based on Connected Vehicle Data

In this study, the authors present their efforts in exploring a new type of traffic data, referred to as internet-connected vehicle (ICV) data, for traffic congestion management and operational planning. Most currently manufactured vehicles contain onboard GPS and cellular modules, and they constantly connect to automobile manufacturers' clouds via cellular networks and upload their status. Some automobile manufacturers have recently redistributed the nonpersonal part of such data, such as geolocation, to third-party organizations for innovative applications. Compared with the traditional vehicle GPS data, the ICV data contain high-resolution GPS waypoints accompanied with the vehicles' abnormal moving events (e.g., hard braking). The ICV data also have huge potential in congestion management and operational planning. They explore to identify and analyze traffic congestion on both freeways and arterials using the ICV data. The ICV data adopted for this research are redistributed by Wejo Data Service, representing 10%-15% of all moving vehicles in the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) area in Texas. Through one case study for a freeway segment and one for an arterial segment, new traffic performance metrics based on the characteristics of ICV data have been presented. The highlights of these efforts are as follows: (I) queue length and propagation at freeway bottlenecks can be directly measured based on where and when most internet-connected vehicles slow down and join the queue; (II) an internet-connected vehicle's actual delay time on arterials can be directly measured according to its slow movement percentage, without assuming the nondelay travel speed; and (III) the ICV data set are also combined with the high-resolution traffic signal events to generate a ground-truth time-space diagram (TSD) on arterials - a common visualization of arterial signal performance for transportation planning and operations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

MaDEVIoT: Cyberattacks on EV Charging Can Disrupt Power Grid Operation

Extensive roll-out of electric vehicles (EVs) requires large-scale deployment of high-power EV Charging Stations (EVCSs). EVCSs are connected to the internet using Internetof- Things (IoT) such as smartphones, to improve the charging experience of users and increase their profitability. This paper studies the feasibility of demand-side cyberattacks launched on power grids via such internet-connected highpower EVCSs. The attack mechanism distorts power grid frequency and voltage, and has the potential to trigger systemwide outages. The case study, based on the power grid and EV deployment plans in Manhattan, New York, illustrates potential impacts of such attacks. The results show that such attacks will become feasible in Manhattan, New York in 2030, as EV adoption increases. Furthermore, the attacks in 2030 are feasible even compromising a single company’s EVCS server in Manhattan, New York. The attacks can cause line overloads and trip over-frequency protection relays, causing system-side blackout in the power grid in Manhattan, New York. The paper informs planning authorities and power grid operators involved with the roll-out of EV charging infrastructure about potential cyberthreats to power grids via manipulating internet-connected high-power EVCSs.

Acharya, Samrat S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Rise in the Utilization of IoT Devices in Nuclear Facilities

The term Internet of Things (loT) encompasses everything connected to the internet, but it is increasingly being used to define objects that "talk" to each other. A broader term is that loT are the devices that connect to each other and to the internet. It has been mentioned that loT offers the potential for a "Forth industrial revolution" (1). This is primally because of the ease of use and quick link-up of devices within an area. This poses options for great interactivity but also create security concerns as many of these devices may not have been vetted for industrial use. By allowing for the intercommunication of these devices and combining with automated systems, we can now gather information, provide analysis and create automotive actions. This allows for faster response times as well as lowering the overall cost for operations in nuclear power facilities. (2)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Software Requirements for a Sample Check-in application in CBRNResponder

In 2021, functional area drills were held that focused on field sample collection and custody transfer at the sample control hotline for the Radiological Assistance Program (RAP) Consequence Management (CM) program. The overarching goal of these drills were to evaluate the current CM processes using the CBRNResponder mobile and web-based applications. There were several needs identified to improve CM processes and to stream/transfer data across multiple devices with and without internet: (1) A sample check-in process is needed to streamline current processes to reduce errors and create efficiencies, (2) the sample check-in application needs to be deployed as a mobile application and on the browser versions when on-line, and (3) the sample check-in process needs to function in an environment with internet connections and also in a standalone mode when internet is not available.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Uniform Methods Project: Smart Thermostat Evaluation Protocol

A smart thermostat is an internet-connected device that controls home heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment and can automatically adjust temperature set points to optimize performance and achieve energy savings. Smart thermostat features often include two way communication, occupancy detection (such as geofencing and occupancy sensors), schedule learning, and seasonal optimization algorithms. Smart thermostats can control most conventional HVAC systems, including central air conditioners, heat pumps, and forced air furnaces. Several types of residential utility programs offer smart thermostats as replacements measures. Working with smart thermostat vendors, utilities can offer separate optimization programs to produce energy savings beyond those achieved by installing a smart thermostat. From an evaluation perspective, smart thermostat programs have several noteworthy features. First, the energy savings from a smart thermostat may change over the life of the device. As a smart thermostat is connected to the internet, original equipment manufacturers can update the thermostat software to improve the thermostat's energy efficiency. Likewise, users can adjust the thermostat settings and schedules over time in response to changes in weather, thermal comfort, energy prices, or preferences for energy efficiency. Additionally, many thermostat manufacturers offer seasonal optimization programs that recommend changes or make minor, automated adjustments to the thermostat settings to improve energy efficiency. These opt-in programs are now standard offerings for many smart thermostat manufacturers and provided at no additional cost to users. The potential for software updates and continuous optimization and the evolving nature of user interactions mean future energy savings may differ from first-year savings and the energy savings of smart thermostats may need to be evaluated more than once. Second, smart thermostats often have small unit energy savings relative to a home's total energy consumption, especially in comparison to whole- home retrofit programs. This can make it difficult to detect the smart thermostat savings in billing or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data. For example, as cooling loads in many regions average about 20% of annual electricity consumption, smart thermostat savings of 10% of cooling energy use would equate to a 2% reduction in home electricity consumption. Evaluators should use regression analysis of whole-home billing consumption or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data to evaluate smart thermostat savings because, as explained at greater length below , these data are usually available to evaluators and regression can control for the impacts of weather and other potentially confounding factors on a home's energy consumption. Finally, as with other energy efficiency programs, participation in smart thermostat programs is self-selective. As discussed at greater length below , smart thermostat participants tend to be, among other things, younger, higher-income, and more likely to adopt electric vehicles (EVs) and internet connected devices than nonparticipants. These differences are often unobservable to the evaluator and correlated with a home's energy consumption, creating the potential for bias in estimating savings. Due to the small unit savings of thermostats, errors and biases from self-selection that may not be very consequential when evaluating a whole- home retrofits (e.g., ±2% of home electricity consumption) can have a major impact when evaluating the savings and cost-effectiveness of smart thermostat programs. A percentage point change in the estimated savings could affect the cost-effectiveness of a program. This means it is important for evaluators to assess and to minimize the potential for error from selection bias in estimating smart thermostat program savings. The Uniform Methods Project provides model protocols for determining energy savings and demand reductions that result from specific energy efficiency measures implemented through state and utility programs. In most cases, the measure protocols are based on a particular option identified by the International Performance Verification and Measurement Protocol ; however, this work provides a more detailed approach to implementing that option. Each chapter is written by technical experts in collaboration with their peers, reviewed by industry experts, and subject to public review and comment. The UMP protocols can be used by utilities, program administrators, public utility commissions, evaluators, and other stakeholders for both program planning and evaluation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of Social Media, Syndromic Surveillance, and Microbiologic Acute Respiratory Infection Data: Observational Study

Internet data can be used to improve infectious disease models. However, the representativeness and individual-level validity of internet-derived measures are largely unexplored as this requires ground truth data for study. This study sought to identify relationships between Web-based behaviors and/or conversation topics and health status using a ground truth, survey-based dataset. This study leveraged a unique dataset of self-reported surveys, microbiological laboratory tests, and social media data from the same individuals toward understanding the validity of individual-level constructs pertaining to influenza-like illness in social media data. Logistic regression models were used to identify illness in Twitter posts using user posting behaviors and topic model features extracted from users’ tweets. Of 396 original study participants, only 81 met the inclusion criteria for this study. Of these participants’ tweets, we identified only two instances that were related to health and occurred within 2 weeks (before or after) of a survey indicating symptoms. It was not possible to predict when participants reported symptoms using features derived from topic models (area under the curve [AUC]=0.51; P=.38), though it was possible using behavior features, albeit with a very small effect size (AUC=0.53; P≤.001). Individual symptoms were also generally not predictable either. The study sample and a random sample from Twitter are predictably different on held-out data (AUC=0.67; P≤.001), meaning that the content posted by people who participated in this study was predictably different from that posted by random Twitter users. Individuals in the random sample and the GoViral sample used Twitter with similar frequencies (similar @ mentions, number of tweets, and number of retweets; AUC=0.50; P=.19). To our knowledge, this is the first instance of an attempt to use a ground truth dataset to validate infectious disease observations in social media data. The lack of signal, the lack of predictability among behaviors or topics, and the demonstrated volunteer bias in the study population are important findings for the large and growing body of disease surveillance using internet-sourced data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Resilience of the Electric Grid Through Trustable IoT-Coordinated Assets

The electricity grid has evolved from a physical system to a cyberphysical system with digital devices that perform measurement, control, communication, computation, and actuation. The increased penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) including renewable generation, flexible loads, and storage provides extraordinary opportunities for improvements in efficiency and sustainability. However, they can introduce new vulnerabilities in the form of cyberattacks, which can cause significant challenges in ensuring grid resilience. We propose a framework in this paper for achieving grid resilience through suitably coordinated assets including a network of Internet of Things devices. A local electricity market is proposed to identify trustable assets and carry out this coordination. Situational Awareness (SA) of locally available DERs with the ability to inject power or reduce consumption is enabled by the market, together with a monitoring procedure for their trustability and commitment. With this SA, we show that a variety of cyberattacks can be mitigated using local trustable resources without stressing the bulk grid. Multiple demonstrations are carried out using a high-fidelity cosimulation platform, real-time hardware-in-the-loop validation, and a utility-friendly simulator.

distributed energy resources↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Intelligent Distributed Ledger Construction Algorithm for IoT

Blockchain is the next generation of secure data management that creates near-immutable decentralized storage. Secure cryptography created a niche for blockchain to provide alternatives to well-known security compromises. However, design bottlenecks with traditional blockchain data structures scale poorly with increased network usage and are extremely computation-intensive. This made the technology difficult to combine with limited devices, like those in Internet of Things networks. In protocols like IOTA, replacement of blockchain's linked-list queue processing with a lightweight dynamic ledger showed remarkable throughput performance increase. However, current stochastic algorithms for ledger construction suffer distinct trade-offs between efficiency and security. This work proposed a machine-learning approach with a multi-arm bandit that resolved these issues and was designed for auditing on limited devices. This algorithm was tested in a reinforcement-learning environment simulating the IOTA ledger's construction with a decision tree. This study showed through regret analysis and experimentation that this approach was secure against impulse manipulation attacks while remaining energy-efficient. Although the IOTA protocol was a pioneer for lightweight distributed ledgers, it is expected that future blockchain protocols will adopt techniques similar to those presented in this work.

multi-arm bandit↗

DOE OSTI2019

Using data from connected thermostats to track large power outages in the United States

The detection of power outages is an essential activity for electric utilities. A large, national dataset of Internet-connected thermostats was used to explore and illustrate the ability of Internet-connected devices to geospatially track outages caused by hurricanes and other major weather events. The method was applied to nine major outage events, including hurricanes and windstorms. In one event, Hurricane Irma, a network of about 1000 thermostats provided quantitatively similar results to detailed utility data with respect to the number of homes without power and identification of the most severely affected regions. The method generated regionally uniform outage data that would give emergency authorities additional visibility into the scope and magnitude of outages. The network of thermostat-sensors also made it possible to calculate a higher resolution version of outage duration (or SAIDI) at a level of customer-level visibility that was not previously available.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

A method to generate heating and cooling schedules based on data from connected thermostats

Internet-connected thermostats are a promising new source of temperature and operational data in homes because they record inside temperatures, setpoints, and HVAC runtimes every five minutes. Over 20 million Internet-connected thermostats have already been installed in American homes. Data from about 20,000 connected thermostats were collected and organized by climate zone, number of occupants, floor area, and day type. A method was developed to create up to 40 representative temperature schedules which, together, can more accurately capture the diversity of heating and cooling behaviors. These results are suitable for input into schedules for building energy simulation models. This information enables more realistic simulations of American heating and cooling behavior, leading to more accurate estimates of energy consumption and savings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Extreme events, energy security and equality through micro- and macro-levels: Concepts, challenges and methods

Low-income households face long-standing challenges of energy insecurity and inequality (EII). During extreme events (e.g., disasters and pandemics) these challenges are especially severe for vulnerable populations reliant on energy for health, education, and well-being. However, many EII studies rarely incorporate the micro- and macro-perspectives of resilience and reliability of energy and internet infrastructure and social-psychological factors. To remedy this gap, we first address the impacts of extreme events on EII among vulnerable populations. Second, we evaluate the driving factors of EII and how they change during disasters. Third, we situate these inequalities within broader energy systems and pinpoint the importance of equitable infrastructure systems by examining infrastructure reliability and resilience and the role of renewable technologies. Then, we consider the factors influencing energy consumption, such as energy practices, socio-psychological factors, and internet access. Finally, we propose interdisciplinary research methods to study these issues during extreme events and provide recommendations.

Chen, CF↗

DOE OSTI2018

Toward a smart data transfer node

Scientific computing systems are becoming significantly more complex, with distributed teams and complex workflows spanning resources from telescopes and light sources to fast networks and Internet of Things sensor systems. In such settings, no single, centralized administrative team and software stack can coordinate and manage all resources used by a single application. Indeed, we have reached a critical limit in manageability using current human-in-the-loop techniques. We therefore argue that resources must begin to respond automatically, adapting and tuning their behavior in response to observed properties of scientific workflows. Over time, machine learning methods can be used to identify effective strategies for autonomic, goal-driven management behaviors that can be applied end-to-end across the scientific computing landscape. Using the data transfer nodes that are widely deployed in modern research networks as an example, we explore the architecture, methods, and algorithms needed for a smart data transfer node to support future scientific computing systems that self-tune and self-manage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Security and Trust Metrics for Edge Computing

The present state of edge computing is an environment of different computing capabilities connected via a wide variety of communication paths. The energy grid is relying upon distributed energy devices connected at the edge of the internet. Consider the scenario where each edge device is customer-owned distributed energy resource (DER) that is connected via a trustworthy link to a grid service provider. Each DER keeps a local simple trust record of interactions. Information protection is provided by internet https standards, however, trust must be evaluated throughout operation. This paper presents a model for representing and evaluating trust in general and applied to the energy grid as a key example. Actors on the edge may interact with each other as well as with a central datacenter.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Empirical Effect of Fleet Optimization on Synchronization and Rebound Effects in Heat Pump Water Heaters

Demand response is a growing concept in light of the internet of things and an increasing need for grid flexibility. Water heaters are one of the preferred devices for providing demand response for grid services and peak management due to their capability to store energy. The efficient use of water heaters for demand response requires consideration of the associated load effects such as synchronization of device schedules and rebound effect. These effects present a significant challenge. Despite the importance of the mentioned effects for water heater queuing and scheduling, there has been no effort to quantify and empirically validate their impact. This study attempts to address this gap by offering two methods - Ward clustering and Euclidean K-means - to evaluate the extent of synchronization in a fleet of 42 water heaters in Atlanta, GA. Using the aforementioned methods on the measured data, we find evidence of convergence of water heater loads as a result of optimization compared to an idle period and analyzed their impact.

demand response↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Impacts of Data Integrity Attacks on Transactive Control Systems

With the rapid growth of internet-connected smart devices capable of exchanging energy price information and adaptively controlling energy consumption of connected loads, the role of transactive control is expected to become more prominent in the modern grid. Transactive control systems integrate the wholesale and retail energy markets, and enable active participation of end users, thereby playing a key role in managing the rising number of distributed assets in the smart grid. The use of internet for the communication of data between the controllers at the building, distribution, and transmission levels makes the system susceptible to cyber-attacks. A skilled adversary can potentially manipulate the exchanged data with the intention of inflicting damage to the system. In this paper, four categories of metrics are put forth for evaluating the performance of the system when under data integrity attacks. A model for scaling-based data integrity attack has been described, and co-simulations have been performed on a 240 bus WECC transmission system model with detailed modeling of distribution systems at specific buses. Our results show that scaling-based data integrity attacks can have non-trivial impacts on the operational, financial, and comfort aspects of the transactive control system.

Smart grid, transactive control system, Buildings-↗