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Inferring surface solar absorption from broadband satellite measurements

An atmospheric solar radiation model and surface albedo models that include wavelength dependence and surface anisotropy are combined to study the possibility of inferring the surface solar absorption from satellite measurements. The model includes ocean, desert, pasture land, savannah, and bog surface categories. Problems associated with converting narrowband measurements to broadband quantities are discussed, suggesting that it would be easier to infer surface solar absorption from broadband measurements directly. The practice of adopting a linear relationship between planetary and surface albedo to estimate surface albedos from satellite measurements is examined, showing that the linear conversion between broadband planetary and surface albedos is strongly dependent on vegetation type. It is suggested that there is a linear slope-offset relationship between surface and surface-atmosphere solar absorption.

Cess, Robert D.

Radial diffusion in the Uranian radiatian belts - Inferences from satellite absorption loss models

Low-energy charged particle (LECP) phase space density profiles available from the Voyager/1986 Uranus encounter are analyzed, using solutions of the time-averaged radial diffusion equation for charged particle transport in a dipolar planetary magnetic field. Profiles for lower-energy protons and electrons are first analyzed to infer radial diffusion rate as a function of L, assuming that satellite absorption is the dominant loss process and local sources for these particles are negligible. Satellite macrosignatures present in the experimentally derived profiles are approximately reproduced in several cases, lending credence to the loss model and indicating that magnetospheric distributed losses are not as rapid as satellite absorption near the minimum satellite L shells for the particles. Diffusion rates and L dependences are found to be similar to those previously inferred in the inner Jovian magnetosphere (Thomsen et al., 1977) and for the inner Saturnian magnetosphere (Hood, 1985). Profiles for higher energy electrons and protons are also analyzed using solutions that allow for the existence of significant particle sources as well as sinks. Possible implications for radial diffusion mechanisms in the Uranian radiation belts are discussed.

Hood, L. L.

The design and application of a Transportable Inference Engine (TIE1)

A Transportable Inference Engine (TIE1) system has been developed by the author as part of the Interactive Experimenter Planning System (IEPS) task which is involved with developing expert systems in support of the Spacecraft Control Programs Branch at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. Unlike traditional inference engines, TIE1 is written in the C programming language. In the TIE1 system, knowledge is represented by a hierarchical network of objects which have rule frames. The TIE1 search algorithm uses a set of strategies, including backward chaining, to obtain the values of goals. The application of TIE1 to a spacecraft scheduling problem is described. This application involves the development of a strategies interpreter which uses TIE1 to do constraint checking.

Mclean, David R.

Topics in inference and decision-making with partial knowledge

Two essential elements needed in the process of inference and decision-making are prior probabilities and likelihood functions. When both of these components are known accurately and precisely, the Bayesian approach provides a consistent and coherent solution to the problems of inference and decision-making. In many situations, however, either one or both of the above components may not be known, or at least may not be known precisely. This problem of partial knowledge about prior probabilities and likelihood functions is addressed. There are at least two ways to cope with this lack of precise knowledge: robust methods, and interval-valued methods. First, ways of modeling imprecision and indeterminacies in prior probabilities and likelihood functions are examined; then how imprecision in the above components carries over to the posterior probabilities is examined. Finally, the problem of decision making with imprecise posterior probabilities and the consequences of such actions are addressed. Application areas where the above problems may occur are in statistical pattern recognition problems, for example, the problem of classification of high-dimensional multispectral remote sensing image data.

Safavian, S. Rasoul

Inference of geophysical parameters from multifrequency polarimetric radar observations and model inversion

In summer 1988 an intensive field experiment was conducted in the vicinity of the Pisgah lava flow in the Mojave Desert. Physical properties such as microtopography, composition, soil moisture, and dielectric constant were measured at five sites representing surfaces with rms heights varying from less than one centimeter to tens of centimeters. In addition, polarimetric radar images at P-band, L-band, and C-band were acquired at three different incidence angles with the NASA/JPL airborne imaging radar polarimeter. Using trihedral corner reflectors deployed in the area prior to imaging, the L- and C-band images were calibrated to provide sigma0 values for each resolution element in the scene. The results of inferring geophysical parameters such as rms surface height and correlation length of the measured surfaces by fitting the observed signatures with those predicted by the small-perturbation model are presented: for smoother surfaces, the rms height values inferred are in good agreement with in situ measurements.

Van Zyl, J. J.

How well is Martian ozone inferred with reflectance spectroscopy?

The Mariner 9 UV spectrometer scanned from 2100 to 3500 Angstroms in one of its two spectral channels every 3 seconds with a spectral resolution of 15 Angstroms and an effective field-of-view of approximately 300 km(exp 2). The only gaseous absorption in the 2000 to 3000 Angstrom region was assumed to come from the Hartley band system of ozone, and therefore the amount of ozone was inferred by fitting this absorption feature with laboratory data of ozone absorption. Mars O3 as inferred from these spectra shows strong seasonal and latitudinal variation, with column abundances ranging from 0.2 microns at equatorial latitudes to 60 microns over the northern winter polar latitudes. The detectability limit of the spectrometer was approximately 3 microns. I use a radiative transfer model based on the discrete ordinate method to calculate synthetic radiance spectra. When typical amounts of dust and cloud are present, significant underestimation of O3 occurs. A factor of 3 times as much O3 is needed to generate the same spectrum for cloudy, dusty atmospheres as for a clear atmosphere. If the scattering properties of Martian clouds and dust were well known, then their appearance would not be a problem, as a model would be capable of retrieving the O3 abundance. However, these properties are not well known, which raises doubts about the effectiveness of the current UV spectroscopy technique used to measure O3. Spatial and temporal variability in temperature and water vapor have been claimed to account for the scatter of the data points. However, water vapor is a small source of odd hydrogen in the winter polar atmosphere, and may not account for most of the variability. Masking by clouds and dust may also account for some of the observed O3 variability, because the nature and opacity of the clouds and dust in the polar hood change dramatically in latitude and even on a day-to-day basis. As the maximum O3 abundance resides near the surface, spacecraft must be able to observe through the entire cloud and dust abundance in order to actually see the total O3 column abundance. If reflectance spectroscopy is used, as on Mariner 9, then the cloud and the airborne dust must be traversed twice; first by the incoming solar flux down to the surface, and then once again upon reflection from the surface out to the spacecraft.

Lindner, Bernhard Lee

An expert system shell for inferring vegetation characteristics

The NASA VEGetation Workbench (VEG) is a knowledge based system that infers vegetation characteristics from reflectance data. The report describes the extensions that have been made to the first generation version of VEG. An interface to a file of unkown cover type data has been constructed. An interface that allows the results of VEG to be written to a file has been implemented. A learning system that learns class descriptions from a data base of historical cover type data and then uses the learned class descriptions to classify an unknown sample has been built. This system has an interface that integrates it into the rest of VEG. The VEG subgoal PROPORTION.GROUND.COVER has been completed and a number of additional techniques that infer the proportion ground cover of a sample have been implemented.

Harrison, P. Ann

Evaluation of fuzzy inference systems using fuzzy least squares

Efforts to develop evaluation methods for fuzzy inference systems which are not based on crisp, quantitative data or processes (i.e., where the phenomenon the system is built to describe or control is inherently fuzzy) are just beginning. This paper suggests that the method of fuzzy least squares can be used to perform such evaluations. Regressing the desired outputs onto the inferred outputs can provide both global and local measures of success. The global measures have some value in an absolute sense, but they are particularly useful when competing solutions (e.g., different numbers of rules, different fuzzy input partitions) are being compared. The local measure described here can be used to identify specific areas of poor fit where special measures (e.g., the use of emphatic or suppressive rules) can be applied. Several examples are discussed which illustrate the applicability of the method as an evaluation tool.

Barone, Joseph M.

Inference in fuzzy rule bases with conflicting evidence

Inference based on fuzzy 'If ... then' rules has played a very important role since when Zadeh proposed the Compositional Rule of Inference and, especially, since the first successful application presented by Mamdani. From the mid-1980's when the 'fuzzy boom' started in Japan, numerous industrial applications appeared, all using simplified techniques because of the high levels of computational complexity. Another feature is that antecedents in the rules are distributed densely in the input space, so the conclusion can be calculated by some weighted combination of the consequents of the matching (fired) rules. The CRI works in the following way: If R is a rule and A* is an observation, the conclusion is computed by B* = R o A* (o stands for the max-min composition). Algorithms implementing this idea directly have an exponential time complexity (maybe the problem is NP-hard) as the rules are relations in X x Y, a k1 x k2 dimensional space, if X is k1, Y is k2 dimensional. The simplified techniques usually decompose the relation into k1 projections in X(sub i) and measure in some way the degree of similarity between observation and antecedent by some parameter of the overlapping. These parameters are aggregated to a single value in (0,1) which is applied as a resulting weight for the given rule. The projections of rules in dimensions Y(sub i) are weighted by these aggregated values and then they are combined in order to obtain a resulting conclusion separately in every dimension. This method is unapplicable with sparse bases as there is no guarantee that an arbitrary observation matches with any of the antecedents. Then, the degree of similarity is 0 and all consequents are weighted by 0. Some considerations for such a situation are summarized in the next sections.

Koczy, Laszlo T.

An expert system shell for inferring vegetation characteristics

The NASA VEGetation Workbench (VEG) is a knowledge based system that infers vegetation characteristics from reflectance data. VEG is described in detail in several references. The first generation version of VEG was extended. In the first year of this contract, an interface to a file of unknown cover type data was constructed. An interface that allowed the results of VEG to be written to a file was also implemented. A learning system that learned class descriptions from a data base of historical cover type data and then used the learned class descriptions to classify an unknown sample was built. This system had an interface that integrated it into the rest of VEG. The VEG subgoal PROPORTION.GROUND.COVER was completed and a number of additional techniques that inferred the proportion ground cover of a sample were implemented. This work was previously described. The work carried out in the second year of the contract is described. The historical cover type database was removed from VEG and stored as a series of flat files that are external to VEG. An interface to the files was provided. The framework and interface for two new VEG subgoals that estimate the atmospheric effect on reflectance data were built. A new interface that allows the scientist to add techniques to VEG without assistance from the developer was designed and implemented. A prototype Help System that allows the user to get more information about each screen in the VEG interface was also added to VEG.

Harrison, P. Ann

The solar cycle variation of ozone in the stratosphere inferred from Nimbus 7 and NOAA 11 satellites

The combined Nimbus 7 solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) and NOAA 11 SBUV/2 ozone data, covering a period of more than a solar cycle (about 15 years), are used to study the UV response of ozone in the stratosphere. The study shows that about 2% change in total column ozone and about 5-7% change in ozone mixing ratio in the upper stratosphere (0.7 to 2 hPa) may be attributed to the change in the solar UV flux over a solar cycle. In the upper stratosphere, where photochemical processes are expected to play a major role, the measured solar cycle variation of ozone is significantly larger than inferred either from the photochemical models or from the ozone response to the 27-day solar UV modulation. For example, the observed solar cycle related change in ozone mixing ratio at 2 hPa is about 1% for 1% change in the solar UV flux near 200 nm. The inferred change in ozone from either the photochemical models or from the 27-day ozone-UV response is about a factor of 2-3 lower than this value.

Chandra, S.

Partitioning of ocean and land uptake of CO2 as inferred by delta C-13 measurements from the NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory Global Air Sampling Network

Using delta C-13 measurements in atmospheric CO2 from a cooperative global air sampling network, we determined the partitioning of the net uptake of CO2 between ocean and land as a function of latitude and time. The majority of delta C-13 measurements were made at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) of the University of Colorado. We perform an inverse deconvolution of both CO2 and delta C-13 observations, using a two-dimensional model of atmospheric transport. Also, the discrimination against C-13 by plant photosynthesis, as a function of latitude and time, is calculated from global runs of the simple biosphere (SiB) model. Uncertainty due to the longitudinal structure of the data, which is not represented by the model, is studied through a bootstrap analysis by adding and omitting measurement sites. The resulting error estimates for our inferred sources and sinks are of the order of 1 GTC (1 GTC = 10(exp 15) gC). Such error bars do not reflect potential systematic errors arising from our estimates of the isotopic disequilibria between the atmosphere and the oceans and biosphere, which are estimated in a separate sensitivity analysis. With respect to global totals for 1992 we found that 3.2 GTC of carbon dissolved into the ocean and that 1.5 GTC were sequestered by land ecosystems. Northern hemisphere ocean gyres north of 15 deg N absorbed 2.7 GTC. The equatorial oceans between 10 deg S and 10 deg N were a net source to the atmosphere of 0.9 GTC. We obtained a sink of 1.6 GTC in southern ocean gyres south of 20 deg S, although the deconvolution is poorly constrained by sparse data coverage at high southern latitudes. The seasonal uptake of CO2 in the northern gyres appears to be correlated with a bloom of phytoplankton in surface waters. On land, northern temperate and boreal ecosystems between 35 deg N and 65 deg N were found to be a major sink of CO2 in 1992, as large as 3.5 GTC. Northern tropical ecosystems (equator-30 deg N) appear to be a net source to the source to the atmosphere of 2 GTC which could reflect biomass burning. A small sink, 0.3 GTC, was inferred for southern tropical ecosystems (30 deg S-equator).

Ciais, Philippe

Reformulating Non-Monotonic Theories for Inference and Updating

We aim to help build programs that do large-scale, expressive non-monotonic reasoning (NMR): especially, 'learning agents' that store, and revise, a body of conclusions while continually acquiring new, possibly defeasible, premise beliefs. Currently available procedures for forward inference and belief revision are exhaustive, and thus impractical: they compute the entire non-monotonic theory, then re-compute from scratch upon updating with new axioms. These methods are thus badly intractable. In most theories of interest, even backward reasoning is combinatoric (at least NP-hard). Here, we give theoretical results for prioritized circumscription that show how to reformulate default theories so as to make forward inference be selective, as well as concurrent; and to restrict belief revision to a part of the theory. We elaborate a detailed divide-and-conquer strategy. We develop concepts of structure in NM theories, by showing how to reformulate them in a particular fashion: to be conjunctively decomposed into a collection of smaller 'part' theories. We identify two well-behaved special cases that are easily recognized in terms of syntactic properties: disjoint appearances of predicates, and disjoint appearances of individuals (terms). As part of this, we also definitionally reformulate the global axioms, one by one, in addition to applying decomposition. We identify a broad class of prioritized default theories, generalizing default inheritance, for which our results especially bear fruit. For this asocially monadic class, decomposition permits reasoning to be localized to individuals (ground terms), and reduced to propositional. Our reformulation methods are implementable in polynomial time, and apply to several other NM formalisms beyond circumscription.

Grosof, Benjamin N.

Inference System Integration Via Logic Morphisms

This is a final report on the accomplishments during the period of the NASA grant. The work on inference servers accomplished the integration of the SLANG logic (Specware's default specification logic) with a number of inference servers in order to make their complementary strengths available. These inverence servers are (1) SNARK. (2) Gandalf, Setheo, and Spass, (3) the Prototype Verification System (PVS) from SRI. (4) HOL98. We designed and implemented MetaSlang, an ML-like language, which we are using to specify and implement all our logic morphisms.

Bjorner, Nikolaj S.

Genetic Network Inference: From Co-Expression Clustering to Reverse Engineering

Advances in molecular biological, analytical, and computational technologies are enabling us to systematically investigate the complex molecular processes underlying biological systems. In particular, using high-throughput gene expression assays, we are able to measure the output of the gene regulatory network. We aim here to review datamining and modeling approaches for conceptualizing and unraveling the functional relationships implicit in these datasets. Clustering of co-expression profiles allows us to infer shared regulatory inputs and functional pathways. We discuss various aspects of clustering, ranging from distance measures to clustering algorithms and multiple-duster memberships. More advanced analysis aims to infer causal connections between genes directly, i.e., who is regulating whom and how. We discuss several approaches to the problem of reverse engineering of genetic networks, from discrete Boolean networks, to continuous linear and non-linear models. We conclude that the combination of predictive modeling with systematic experimental verification will be required to gain a deeper insight into living organisms, therapeutic targeting, and bioengineering.

Dhaeseleer, Patrik

Inferring Cloud Properties from Passive Solar Sensors

The most common approach for retrieving cloud optical depth from ground-based observations uses downwelling fluxes measured by pyranometers and Multi-Filter Rotating Shadowband Radiometers (MFRSR). The key element in both retrieval techniques is the one-to-one mapping of the "observed" fluxes into cloud optical depth through plane-parallel radiative transfer. Both methods are expected to work well only for completely overcast clouds giving an effective optical depth for the whole sky. To infer cloud optical depth locally one can assume to use a narrow-field-of view radiometer that measures radiances instead of fluxes. However, lack of one-to-one relationships between radiance and cloud optical depth, prevents the direct use of radiances either. Here we discuss a new method for retrieving cloud optical depth from ground-based measurements of zenith radiance in the RED and near infrared (NIR) spectral regions. In addition to an algebraic combinations of spectral radiances such as Normalized Difference Cloud Index (NDCI) that largely removes nonuniqueness and the radiative effects of cloud inhomogeneity but can result in poor retrievals due to its insensitivity to cloud fraction, both RED and NIR radiances as points on the "RED vs. NIR" plane are proposed to be used for retrieval. The proposed retrieval method is applied to a multi- channel sunphotometer (as a part of AERONET) measurements at the ARM site in Oklahoma. The results of retrieval are compared with the ones from Microwave Radiometer (MWR) and MFRSR. In addition to cloud optical depth, the new retrieval method also infers a "radiatively effective" cloud fraction.

Marshak, A.

F-OWL: An Inference Engine for Semantic Web

Understanding and using the data and knowledge encoded in semantic web documents requires an inference engine. F-OWL is an inference engine for the semantic web language OWL language based on F-logic, an approach to defining frame-based systems in logic. F-OWL is implemented using XSB and Flora-2 and takes full advantage of their features. We describe how F-OWL computes ontology entailment and compare it with other description logic based approaches. We also describe TAGA, a trading agent environment that we have used as a test bed for F-OWL and to explore how multiagent systems can use semantic web concepts and technology.

Zou, Youyong

Inference of Ice Cloud Properties from High-spectral Resolution Infrared Observations

The theoretical basis is explored for inferring the microphysical properties of ice crystal from high-spectral resolution infrared observations. A radiative transfer model is employed to simulate spectral radiances to address relevant issues. The extinction and absorption efficiencies of individual ice crystals, assumed as hexagonal columns for large particles and droxtals for small particles, are computed from a combination of the finite- difference time-domain (FDTD) technique and a composite method. The corresponding phase functions are computed from a combination of FDTD and an improved geometric optics method (IGOM). Bulk scattering properties are derived by averaging the single- scattering properties of individual particles for 30 particle size distributions developed from in situ measurements and for additional four analytical Gamma size distributions for small particles. The non-sphericity of ice crystals is shown to have a significant impact on the radiative signatures in the infrared (IR) spectrum; the spherical particle approximation for inferring ice cloud properties may result in an overest&ation of the optical thickness and an inaccurate retrieval of effective particle size. Furthermore, we show that the error associated with the use of the Henyey-Greenstein phase function can be as larger as 1 K in terms of brightness temperature for larger particle effective size at some strong scattering wavenumbers. For small particles, the difference between the two phase functions is much less, with brightness temperatures generally differing by less than 0.4 K. The simulations undertaken in this study show that the slope of the IR brightness temperature spectrum between 790-960/cm is sensitive to the effective particle size. Furthermore, a strong sensitivity of IR brightness temperature to cloud optical thickness is noted within the l050-1250/cm region. Based on this spectral feature, a technique is presented for the simultaneous retrieval of the visible optical thickness and effective particle size from high spectral resolution infrared data under ice cloudy con&tion. The error analysis shows that the uncertainty of the retrieved optical thickness and effective particle size has a small range of variation. The error for retrieving particle size in conjunction with an uncertainty of 5 K in cloud'temperature, or a surface temperature uncertainty of 2.5 K, is less than 15%. The corresponding e m r in the uncertainty of optical thickness is within 5-2096, depending on the value of cloud optical thickness. The applicability of the technique is demonstrated using the aircraft-based High- resolution Interferometer Sounder (HIS) data from the Subsonic Aircraft: Contrail and Cloud Effects Special Study (SUCCESS) in 1996 and the First ISCCP Regional Experiment - Arctic Clouds Experiment (FIRE-ACE) in 1998.

Huang, Hung-Lung