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DOE OSTI2014

LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change – the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demands—both gross withdrawals and net consumptive use—are assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 – 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 – 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also highlight an important role for development and deployment of water conservation technologies and practices.

agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2024

Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors

Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrated assessment modeling of a zero-emissions global transportation sector

Currently responsible for over one fifth of carbon emissions worldwide, the transportation sector will need to undergo a substantial technological transition to ensure compatibility with global climate goals. Few studies have modeled strategies to achieve zero emissions across all transportation modes, including aviation and shipping, alongside an integrated analysis of feedbacks on other sectors and environmental systems. Here, we use a global integrated assessment model to evaluate deep decarbonization scenarios for the transportation sector consistent with maintaining end-of-century warming below 1.5 °C, considering varied timelines for fossil fuel phase-out and implementation of advanced alternative technologies. We highlight the leading low carbon technologies for each transportation mode, finding that electrification contributes most to decarbonization across the sector. Biofuels and hydrogen are particularly important for aviation and shipping. Our most ambitious scenario eliminates transportation emissions by mid-century, contributing substantially to achieving climate targets but requiring rapid technological shifts with integrated impacts on fuel demands and availability and upstream energy transitions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Toward Enhancing Wastewater Treatment with Resource Recovery in Integrated Assessment and Computable General Equilibrium Models

Sustainable water management is essential to increasing water availability and decreasing water pollution. The wastewater sector is expanding globally and beginning to incorporate technologies that recover nutrients from wastewater. Nutrient recovery increases energy consumption but may reduce the demand for nutrients from virgin sources. We estimate the increase in annual global energy consumption (1,100 million GJ) and greenhouse gas emissions (84 million t CO2e) for wastewater treatment in the year 2030 compared to today’s levels to meet sustainable development goals. To capture these trends, integrated assessment and computable general equilibrium models that address the energy-water nexus must evolve. We reviewed 16 of these models to assess how well they capture wastewater treatment plant energy consumption and GHG emissions. Only three models include biogas production from the wastewater organic content. Four explicitly represent energy demand for wastewater treatment, and eight include explicit representation of wastewater treatment plant greenhouse gas emissions. Of those eight models, six models quantify methane emissions from treatment, five include representation of emissions of nitrous oxide, and two include representation of emissions of carbon dioxide. Our review concludes with proposals to improve these models to better capture the energy-water nexus associated with the evolving wastewater treatment sector.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

2023 Central Hanford Ecological Integrity Assessments Monitoring Report

The Hanford Site is comprised of an expanse of shrub-steppe habitats that provides exceptional ecological value to plants and animals located on the site and in the surrounding greater Columbia Basin. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-managed portion of the Hanford Site, referred to from here on as Central Hanford, has been the focus of various ecological monitoring efforts, including vegetation monitoring. The scope and goals of vegetation surveys have varied greatly since the Hanford Site was established, but previous studies have documented a rapidly changing landscape, making it clear that continued vegetation monitoring is integral to preserving the ecological value of Central Hanford. A new vegetation monitoring effort was initiated in 2023 using methods based on ecological integrity assessments (EIA) (Natural Heritage Report [NHR] 2020-05) developed by the Washington Natural Heritage Program (WNHP), a division of the Washington State Department of Natural Resources (DNR) and NatureServe®. The methods were modified and supplemented to meet monitoring goals at the Hanford Site. The 2023 EIA monitoring effort consisted of field surveys to evaluate vegetation and soil condition across Central Hanford. Surveys were focused on upland habitats, and areas under consideration for upcoming projects were prioritized. Vegetation cover estimates were used to score a variety of metrics for vegetation conditions in each area. In 2023, approximately half of the site was surveyed. Monitoring methods and results for the 2023 field season are summarized in this report, and management recommendations are also provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution and Climate Change for Sustainable Development in Africa - Summary for Decision Makers

Air pollution and climate change are a deadly duo for Africa, and must be tackled together. Air pollutants and greenhouse gases often share the same sources and can be even more dangerous when combined. Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and currently, an estimated 1 million people per year die prematurely from air pollution on the continent. But there is a way to improve the situation: preventing emissions from short-lived climate pollutants, like methane and black carbon, is crucial for the world to stay below 1.5°C. Reducing SLCPs will help both save lives and protect the environment. Africa has a huge opportunity to continue developing sustainably, improve human well-being, and protect nature by investing in solutions to fight climate change and air pollution together. A new Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution and Climate Change for Sustainable Development in Africa from the African Union Commission, the Climate and Clean Air Coalition, and the UN Environment Programme, developed by African scientists in a process led by the Stockholm Environment Institute, shows how African leaders can act quickly across 5 key areas—transport, residential, energy, agriculture, and waste—to fight climate change, prevent air pollution, and protect human health.

Africa↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations

The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO 2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO 2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO 2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5-8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO 2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Confining system integrity assessment by detection of natural gas migration using seismic diffractions [Seismic diffractions for gas leakage detection in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico]

Successful carbon capture and storage (CCS) requires secure CO 2 confinement within a geologic reservoir. If associated with a depleted hydrocarbon reservoir, the sealing capability can be determined by examination of the shallow subsurface for hydrocarbon leaks. Numerous seismic signatures have been reported to be hydrocarbon indicators. The interpretation can be advanced by using seismic diffractions, which could indicate subtle hydrocarbon accumulations not detectable by conventional techniques. In this work, we investigate the potential of seismic diffractions for use in shallow gas detection. We extract diffractions from the ultra-high-resolution 3D P-Cable seismic dataset acquired along the Gulf of Mexico inner continental shelf. Interpretation of this dataset revealed numerous seismic signatures associated with hydrocarbon accumulations (e.g., a prominent gas chimney). We analyze scattering features of the detected hydrocarbon accumulations and confirm the correlation between confidently interpreted gas accumulations and seismic diffractions. Based on that, we suggest using diffractions for confining system integrity assessment. As a result, diffraction analysis allows operating with subtle seismic signals that facilitates exploration of reliable CO 2 storage sites.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

An Interface Debonding Model for Integrity Assessment of Nuclear Fuel Rods

The integrity degradation of nuclear fuel rods due to material embrittlement resulting from hydride formation has been extensively investigated. Finite element based fracture mechanics models have been proposed to assess the reduction of load capacity of nuclear fuel rod structures with several distribution scenarios of hydrides. In these finite element models, individual hydrides are modeled by opened cracks distributed in bulk matrix. These models are indeed valid for cases where hydrides fractures occur at low load levels. It is important for finite element models to take into account the cases where hydride fractures occur at high load levels, at which bulk matrix material may undergo reasonable high stress or yield. This requires hydride/bulk matrix interface models that can accommodate both bonded and debonded (fractured or crack initiation) behaviors of hydride/matrix interfaces. However, direct modeling debonding behaviors between hydride and bulk matrix is a great challenge. This is because for ductile structural failure simulations ligaments of bulk matrix often undergo large plastic deformation. Complete solutions often unavailable for crack initiation or debonding in media with finite plastic strain using popular implicit finite element technologies. This paper proposes a new computational framework based on discontinuous Galerkin (DG) finite element formulations for easily handling hydride/matrix interface debonding. We present structural failure simulation results for a quarter plane strain rod model with zircaloy materials. It is concluded that the proposed DG interface debonding model is powerful in simulating structural failure due to hydride failure in bulk media with finite plastic deformation. (author)

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2014

Use of a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model for Policy Analysis: An Uncertainty Analysis of Energy and Water

This presentation discusses some recent uncertainty assessment work being done on climate policy issues at the state level. The work is being done with the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA), a new climate change policy assessment framework developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland and Seattle, Washington and College Park, Maryland. The central computaional engine of PRIMA is the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a dynamic-recursive integrated assessment model of the world economy, climate policy, and climate change that that has been regionalized to provide policy analysis down to the level of U.S. states. The PRIMA framework also includes detailed sectoral models that address issues in the energy-land-water interface geospatially at the sub-national level as the climate change and socioeconomic change occur. This presentation illustrates two uncertainty analyses conducted with GCAM and with water demand and supply components of PRIMA. The energy uncertainty analysis was conducted with GCAM alone and examines the impact of aggressive residential and commercial building equipment standards across the United States in the context of socioeconomic and climate uncertainty. The analysis focuses on the impact on future net energy service costs under aggressive standards in the residential and commercial building sectors from 2005 to 2050. The analysis uses a combination of discrete scenarios and Monte Carlo sampling approaches to address uncertainties. Results for Arizona and Florida are used to illustrate whether aggressive building equipment standards save energy and reduce net energy service costs when compared with current standards. Analysis of the output indicates a robust result under a broad range of future socioeconomic, policy, and climate scenarios. The water uncertainty analysis demonstrates a multi-model approach used to bound the prospects for future water shortages in Florida, given socioeconomic uncertainty and future water supply under a future climate. In this analysis, water demands from GCAM are coupled with a water management model that simulates regulated streamflows and water supply deficits given naturalized streamflows, water demands, and reservoir operating rules. The naturalized streamflows are simulated with a regional earth system model coupled to a river routing model. The climate is obtained from a regional climate projection of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) for all of the river basins in the United States. GCAM is used in Monte Carlo mode to estimate the outer bounds of water demand given socioeconomic uncertainty and RCP 8.5 climate. Future water demand is downscaled to a river basin level for Florida in high, low, and middle cases and is compared with available water supply for the same region for RCP 8.5 climate to identify the potential location and severity of water shortages.

Climate change, policy, mitigation, impacts, uncer↗

NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Assessments of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: An Overview of AgMIP Regional Research in South Asia

South Asia encompasses a wide and highly varied geographic region, and includes climate zones ranging from the mountainous Himalayan territory to the tropical lowland and coastal zones along alluvial floodplains. The region's climate is dominated by a monsoonal circulation that heralds the arrival of seasonal rainfall, upon which much of the regional agriculture relies. The spatial and temporal distribution of this rainfall is, however, not uniform over the region. Northern South Asia, central India, and the west coast receive much of their rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, between June and September. These rains partly result from the moisture transport accompanying the monsoonal winds, which move in the southwesterly direction from the equatorial Indian Ocean. Regions further south, such as south/southeast India and Sri Lanka, may receive rains from both the southwest monsoon, and also during the northeast monsoon season between October and December (with northeasterly monsoon wind flow and moisture flux), which results in a bi- or multi-modal rainfall distribution. In addition, rainfall across South Asia displays a large amount of intraseasonal and interannual variability. Interannual variability is influenced by many drivers, both natural (e.g., El Ni-Southern Oscillation; ENSO) and man-made (e.g., rising temperatures due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations), and it is challenging to obtaining accurate time-series of annual rainfall, even amongst various observed data products, which display inconsistencies amongst themselves. These climatic and rainfall variations can further complicate South Asia's agricultural and water management. Agriculture employs at least 65 of the workforce in most South Asian countries, and nearly 80 of South Asia's poor inhabit rural areas. Understanding the response of current agricultural production to climate variability and future climate change is of utmost importance in securing food and livelihoods for South Asia's growing population. In order to assess the future of food and livelihood security across South Asia, the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has undertaken integrated climate-crop-economic assessments of the impact of climate change on food security and poverty in South Asia, encompassing Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. AgMIP has funded, on a competitive basis, four South Asian regional research teams (RRTs) and one South Asian coordination team (CT) to undertake climate-crop-economic integrated assessments of food security for many districts in each of these countries, with the goal of characterizing the state of food security and poverty across the region, and projecting how these are subject to change under future climate change conditions.

mountains↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dose Consequence and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Integration into Digital Documented Safety Analysis

This is an intern poster presentation. The current reactor authorization process is complex and error prone. The development of a digital Documented Safety Analysis has been proposed to provide an automated and integrated solution to enhance the design and authorization process. The digital DSA will consist of interlinked models, analyses, and reports, all of which will be updated using automated workflows when design changes are made. This poster examines the integration of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) with the transient and dose consequence analyses. A PRA for a generic high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) has been constructed which will drive the input parameters for a transient analysis model currently being constructed. Dose consequence will be determined using the results of the transient analysis and the Radiation Safety Analysis Computer (RSAC) code. Dose consequence data will then be input back into the PRA to drive design parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Empowering Rural Electrification in Honduras: An Integrated Assessment of PV/BESS and Productive Uses of Electricity in Gracias a Dios

Honduras faces significant challenges in its energy sector, particularly in rural areas where access to reliable and affordable electricity remains limited. The flagship rural electrification initiative for Honduras Secretary of Energy (SEN) is the Politica de Acceso Universal a la Electricidad (PAUEH - Universal Electricity Access Policy), a key solution for addressing this energy poverty is the deployment of more than 1700 distributed solar and hybrid mini-grid solutions. In late 2023 as a first step towards supporting SEN's electrification efforts, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a literature review of SEN electrification policy documents and conducted a series of technical capacity-building workshops with SEN and other energy sector stakeholders in Honduras focused on using NREL's open-source REopt tool to conduct techno-economic assessments and develop least-cost optimizations for potential solar + storage mini-grid systems. Building on some initial capacity building on mini-grid modeling, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) worked with SEN to develop a detailed techno-economic assessment for electrifying two schools, a healthcare clinic, and a hospital in a hypothetical community within the department of Gracias a Dios. The analysis also evaluates the business case for cold storage productive use of energy (PUE) applications for the fisheries value chain and how the incorporation of these PUE loads potentially impacts both the viability of the PV+BESS solutions as well as local economic development. By assessing the potential for deployment of integrated PV/BESS systems to both support critical community services like education and healthcare, as well as potential for downstream enterprise and economic development, this analysis represents a first step that can help to inform specific strategies for development of pilot PV+BESS projects aligned with national priorities and sector level planning under PAUEH.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fortalecimiento de la Electrificación Rural en Honduras: Una Evaluación Integrada de PV+BESS y Usos Productivos de la Electricidad en Gracias a Dios, Honduras [Empowering Rural Electrification in Honduras: An Integrated Assessment of PV/BESS and Productive Uses of Electricity in Gracias a Dios] (Spanish Translation)

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Linking Life Cycle and Integrated Assessment Modeling to Evaluate Technologies in an Evolving System Context: A Power-to-Hydrogen Case Study for the United States

Not Available

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

Not Available

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Calculating Impacts of Energy Standards on Energy Demand in U.S. Buildings under Uncertainty with an Integrated Assessment Model: Technical Background Data

This report presents data and assumptions employed in an application of PNNL’s Global Change Assessment Model with a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability. The model is used to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The report provides a summary of how residential and commercial buildings are modeled, together with assumptions made for the distributions of state–level population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per worker, efficiency and cost of residential and commercial energy equipment by end use, and efficiency and cost of residential and commercial building shells. The cost and performance of equipment and of building shells are reported separately for current building and equipment efficiency standards and for more aggressive standards. The report also details assumptions concerning future improvements brought about by projected trends in technology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models

Although Africa’s share in the global energy system is only small today, the ongoing population growth and economic development imply that this can change significantly. In this paper, we discuss long-term energy developments in Africa using the results of the LIMITS model inter-comparison study. The analysis focusses on the position of Africa in the wider global energy system and climate mitigation. The results show a considerable spread in model outcomes. Without specific climate policy, Africa’s share in global CO 2 emissions is projected to increase from around 1-4% today to 3-23% by 2100. In all models, emissions only start to become really significant on a global scale after 2050. Furthermore, by 2030 still around 50% of total household energy use is supplied through traditional bio-energy, in contrast to existing ambitions from international organisations to provide access to modern energy for all. After 2050, the energy mix is projected to converge towards a global average energy mix with high shares of fossil fuels and electricity use. Finally, although the continent is now a large net exporter of oil and gas, towards 2050 it most likely needs most of its resources to meet its rapidly growing domestic demand. With respect to climate policy, the rapid expansion of the industrial and the power sector also create large mitigation potential and thereby the possibility to align the investment peak in the energy system with climate policy and potential revenues from international carbon trading.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗