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Optical and Microphysical Retrievals of Marine Stratocumulus Clouds off the Coast of Namibia from Satellite and Aircraft

Though the emphasis of the Southern Africa Regional Science Initiative 2000 (SAFARI-2000) dry season campaign was largely on emission sources and transport, the assemblage of aircraft (including the high altitude NASA ER-2 remote sensing platform and the University of Washington CV-580, UK MRF C-130, and South African Weather Bureau JRA in situ aircrafts) provided a unique opportunity for cloud studies. Therefore, as part of the SAFARI initiative, investigations were undertaken to assess regional aerosol-cloud interactions and cloud remote sensing algorithms. In particular, the latter part of the experiment concentrated on marine boundary layer stratocumulus clouds off the southwest coast of Africa. Associated with cold water upwelling along the Benguela current, the Namibian stratocumulus regime has received limited attention but appears to be unique for several reasons. During the dry season, outflow of continental fires and industrial pollution over this area can be extreme. From below, upwelling provides a rich nutrient source for phytoplankton (a source of atmospheric sulfur through DMS production as well as from decay processes). The impact of these natural and anthropogenic sources on the microphysical and optical properties of the stratocumulus is unknown. Continental and Indian Ocean cloud systems of opportunity were also studied during the campaign. SAFARI 2000 aircraft flights off the coast of Namibia were coordinated with NASA Terra Satellite overpasses for synergy with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and other Terra instruments. MODIS was developed by NASA and launched onboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18, 1999 (and Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002). Among the remote sensing algorithms developed and applied to this sensor are cloud optical and microphysical properties that include cloud thermodynamic phase, optical thickness, and effective particle radius of both liquid water and ice clouds. The archived products from these algorithms have applications in climate change studies, climate modeling, numerical weather prediction, and fundamental atmospheric research. The archived MODIS Collection 5 cloud products processing stream will be used to analyze low water cloud scenes off the Namibian and Angolan coasts during SAFARI 2000 time period, as well as other years. Pixel-level Terra and Aqua MODIS retrievals (l. km spatial resolution at nadir) and gridded (1' uniform grid) statistics of cloud optical thickness and effective particle radius will be presented, including joint probability distributions between the two quantities. In addition, perspectives from the MODIS Airborne Simulator, which flew on the ER-2 during SAFARI 2000 providing high spatial resolution retrievals (50 m at nadir), will be presented as appropriate. The H-SAF Program requires an experimental operational European-centric Satellite Precipitation Algorithm System (E-SPAS) that produces medium spatial resolution and high temporal resolution surface rainfall and snowfall estimates over the Greater European Region including the Greater Mediterranean Basin. Currently, there are various types of experimental operational algorithm methods of differing spatiotemporal resolutions that generate global precipitation estimates. This address will first assess the current status of these methods and then recommend a methodology for the H-SAF Program that deviates somewhat from the current approach under development but one that takes advantage of existing techniques and existing software developed for the TRMM Project and available through the public domain.

Platnick, Steven E.↗

Characteristics of Precipitation, Cloud, and Latent Heating Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation

This study investigates the evolution of cloud and rainfall structures associated with Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. Two complementary indices are used to define MJO phases. Joint probability distribution functions (PDFs) of cloud-top temperature and radar echo-top height are constructed for each of the eight MJO phases. The genesis stage of MJO convection over the western Pacific (phases 1 and 2) features a bottom-heavy PDF, characterized by abundant warm rain, low clouds, suppressed deep convection, and higher sea surface temperature (SST). As MJO convection develops (phases 3 and 4), a transition from the bottom-heavy to top-heavy PDF occurs. The latter is associated with the development of mixed-phase rain and middle-to-high clouds, coupled with rapid SST cooling. At the MJO convection peak (phase 5), a top-heavy PDF contributed by deep convection with mixed-phase and ice-phase rain and high echo-top heights (greater than 5 km) dominates. The decaying stage (phases 6 and 7) is characterized by suppressed SST, reduced total rain, increased contribution from stratiform rain, and increased nonraining high clouds. Phase 7, in particular, signals the beginning of a return to higher SST and increased warm rain. Phase 8 completes the MJO cycle, returning to a bottom-heavy PDF and SST conditions similar to phase 1. The structural changes in rain and clouds at different phases of MJO are consistent with corresponding changes in derived latent heating profiles, suggesting the importance of a diverse mix of warm, mixed-phase, and ice-phase rain associated with low-level, congestus, and high clouds in constituting the life cycle and the time scales of MJO.

Lau, K-M.↗

Astrophysical Model Selection in Gravitational Wave Astronomy

Theoretical studies in gravitational wave astronomy have mostly focused on the information that can be extracted from individual detections, such as the mass of a binary system and its location in space. Here we consider how the information from multiple detections can be used to constrain astrophysical population models. This seemingly simple problem is made challenging by the high dimensionality and high degree of correlation in the parameter spaces that describe the signals, and by the complexity of the astrophysical models, which can also depend on a large number of parameters, some of which might not be directly constrained by the observations. We present a method for constraining population models using a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach which simultaneously infers the source parameters and population model and provides the joint probability distributions for both. We illustrate this approach by considering the constraints that can be placed on population models for galactic white dwarf binaries using a future space-based gravitational wave detector. We find that a mission that is able to resolve approximately 5000 of the shortest period binaries will be able to constrain the population model parameters, including the chirp mass distribution and a characteristic galaxy disk radius to within a few percent. This compares favorably to existing bounds, where electromagnetic observations of stars in the galaxy constrain disk radii to within 20%.

hierarchical↗

Characterizing Spatiotemporal Uncertainty in Interpolated Meteorological Data

Interpolated meteorological data invariably contain errors. These errors have structure in time and space, particularly autocorrelation, which can cause the effects of errors to compound when model outputs are aggregated temporally or spatially. One way to account for this uncertainty is with a probabilistic model from which samples can be drawn that are coherent with respect to underlying spatial and temporal covariance structure. This work describes a probabilistic method for spatial interpolation of point-wise meteorological time series. Observational data from weather stations are generally sparse in space and dense in time (but sometimes missing). The method works by projecting time series onto orthogonal basis vectors and spatially interpolating each resulting component independently. Under suitable assumptions, and data transformations to better satisfy those assumptions, Gaussian process regression provides a complete description of the joint predictive distribution over a Gaussian random field. Spatiotemporally coherent realizations are generated as the sum of conditional (spatial) simulations of each orthogonal (temporal) component. Data-derived and generic orthogonal bases are considered. In addition to spatial interpolation, imputation of missing observational data is examined. The method is applied using near-surface air temperature over the Western United States and validated by comparing theoretical versus actual coverage of predictive distributions and analyzing the degree to which spatial and temporal covariance structure is reproduced. Computational considerations, relating to conditional simulation of random fields, are also addressed.

Conor T Doherty↗

Comparison of joint space versus task force load distribution optimization for a multiarm manipulator system

It is often proposed that the redundancy in choosing a force distribution for multiple arms grasping a single object should be handled by minimizing a quadratic performance index. The performance index may be formulated in terms of joint torques or in terms of the Cartesian space force/torque applied to the body by the grippers. The former seeks to minimize power consumption while the latter minimizes body stresses. Because the cost functions are related to each other by a joint angle dependent transformation on the weight matrix, it might be argued that either method tends to reduce power consumption, but clearly the joint space minimization is optimal. A comparison of these two options is presented with consideration given to computational cost and power consumption. Simulation results using a two arm robot system are presented to show the savings realized by employing the joint space optimization. These savings are offset by additional complexity, computation time and in some cases processor power consumption.

Soloway, Donald I.↗

Distributed computer system enhances productivity for SRB joint optimization

The Programming System for Structural Synthesis software package, which couples structural analysis and optimization, has been distributed over a network of work stations for use in Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster joint redesign optimization. Finite difference computing techniques were applied to the optimization gradients in parallel execution, allowing several work stations to simultaneously contribute to the problem's solution. An optimal joint shape was obtained which achieves minimum weight while keeping the gap between joints well closed and limiting structural stresses. The optimization cycle was reduced from two hours to one-half hour.

Rogers, James L., Jr.↗

Design, fabrication and test of graphite/polyimide composite joints and attachments for advanced aerospace vehicles

Bonded and bolted designs are presented for each of four major attachment types. Prepreg processing problems are discussed and quality control data are given for lots 2W4604, 2W4632 and 2W4643. Preliminary design allowables test results for tension tests and compression tests of laminates are included. The final small specimen test matrix is defined and the configuration of symmetric step-lap joint specimens are shown. Finite element modeling studies of a double lap joint were performed to evaluate the number of elements required through the adhesive thickness to assess effects of various joint parameters on stress distributions. Results of finite element analyses assessing the effect of an adhesive fillet on the stress distribution in a double lap joint are examined.

Skoumal, D. E.↗

A Single-Lap Joint Adhesive Bonding Optimization Method Using Gradient and Genetic Algorithms

A natural process for any engineer, scientist, educator, etc. is to seek the most efficient method for accomplishing a given task. In the case of structural design, an area that has a significant impact on the structural efficiency is joint design. Unless the structure is machined from a solid block of material, the individual components which compose the overall structure must be joined together. The method for joining a structure varies depending on the applied loads, material, assembly and disassembly requirements, service life, environment, etc. Using both metallic and fiber reinforced plastic materials limits the user to two methods or a combination of these methods for joining the components into one structure. The first is mechanical fastening and the second is adhesive bonding. Mechanical fastening is by far the most popular joining technique; however, in terms of structural efficiency, adhesive bonding provides a superior joint since the load is distributed uniformly across the joint. The purpose of this paper is to develop a method for optimizing single-lap joint adhesive bonded structures using both gradient and genetic algorithms and comparing the solution process for each method. The goal of the single-lap joint optimization is to find the most efficient structure that meets the imposed requirements while still remaining as lightweight, economical, and reliable as possible. For the single-lap joint, an optimum joint is determined by minimizing the weight of the overall joint based on constraints from adhesive strengths as well as empirically derived rules. The analytical solution of the sin-le-lap joint is determined using the classical Goland-Reissner technique for case 2 type adhesive joints. Joint weight minimization is achieved using a commercially available routine, Design Optimization Tool (DOT), for the gradient solution while an author developed method is used for the genetic algorithm solution. Results illustrate the critical design variables as a function of adhesive properties and convergences of different joints based on the two optimization methods.

Smeltzer, Stanley S., III↗

On the apparent insignificance of the randomness of flexible joints on large space truss dynamics

Deployable periodic large space structures have been shown to exhibit high dynamic sensitivity to period-breaking imperfections and uncertainties. These can be brought on by manufacturing or assembly errors, structural imperfections, as well as nonlinear and/or nonconservative joint behavior. In addition, the necessity of precise pointing and position capability can require the consideration of these usually negligible and unknown parametric uncertainties and their effect on the overall dynamic response of large space structures. This work describes the use of a new design approach for the global dynamic solution of beam-like periodic space structures possessing parametric uncertainties. Specifically, the effect of random flexible joints on the free vibrations of simply-supported periodic large space trusses is considered. The formulation is a hybrid approach in terms of an extended Timoshenko beam continuum model, Monte Carlo simulation scheme, and first-order perturbation methods. The mean and mean-square response statistics for a variety of free random vibration problems are derived for various input random joint stiffness probability distributions. The results of this effort show that, although joint flexibility has a substantial effect on the modal dynamic response of periodic large space trusses, the effect of any reasonable uncertainty or randomness associated with these joint flexibilities is insignificant.

Koch, R. M.↗

Preloaded Composite-Strut/End-Fitting Joint

Proposed structural joint between composite strut and metal end fitting strong and light in weight. Joint configured to distribute stresses fairly uniformly, with little interlaminar stress. Composite-strut/metal-fitting joint built up integrally with strut in layup process. Joint remains tight under reversals of loads and changes in temperature.

Monitor, Dean S.↗

Correlation, Cost Risk, and Geometry

The geometric viewpoint identifies the choice of a correlation matrix for the simulation of cost risk with the pairwise choice of data vectors corresponding to the parameters used to obtain cost risk. The correlation coefficient is the cosine of the angle between the data vectors after translation to an origin at the mean and normalization for magnitude. Thus correlation is equivalent to expressing the data in terms of a non orthogonal basis. To understand the many resulting phenomena requires the use of the tensor concept of raising the index to transform the measured and observed covariant components into contravariant components before vector addition can be applied. The geometric viewpoint also demonstrates that correlation and covariance are geometric properties, as opposed to purely statistical properties, of the variates. Thus, variates from different distributions may be correlated, as desired, after selection from independent distributions. By determining the principal components of the correlation matrix, variates with the desired mean, magnitude, and correlation can be generated through linear transforms which include the eigenvalues and the eigenvectors of the correlation matrix. The conversion of the data to a non orthogonal basis uses a compound linear transformation which distorts or stretches the data space. Hence, the correlated data does not have the same properties as the uncorrelated data used to generate it. This phenomena is responsible for seemingly strange observations such as the fact that the marginal distributions of the correlated data can be quite different from the distributions used to generate the data. The joint effect of statistical distributions and correlation remains a fertile area for further research. In terms of application to cost estimating, the geometric approach demonstrates that the estimator must have data and must understand that data in order to properly choose the correlation matrix appropriate for a given estimate. There is a general feeling by employers and managers that the field of cost requires little technical or mathematical background. Contrary to that opinion, this paper demonstrates that a background in mathematics equivalent to that needed for typical engineering and scientific disciplines at the masters or doctorate level is appropriate within the field of cost risk.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

Distributed Adaptive Control: Beyond Single-Instant, Discrete Variables

In extensive form noncooperative game theory, at each instant t, each agent i sets its state x, independently of the other agents, by sampling an associated distribution, q(sub i)(x(sub i)). The coupling between the agents arises in the joint evolution of those distributions. Distributed control problems can be cast the same way. In those problems the system designer sets aspects of the joint evolution of the distributions to try to optimize the goal for the overall system. Now information theory tells us what the separate q(sub i) of the agents are most likely to be if the system were to have a particular expected value of the objective function G(x(sub 1),x(sub 2), ...). So one can view the job of the system designer as speeding an iterative process. Each step of that process starts with a specified value of E(G), and the convergence of the q(sub i) to the most likely set of distributions consistent with that value. After this the target value for E(sub q)(G) is lowered, and then the process repeats. Previous work has elaborated many schemes for implementing this process when the underlying variables x(sub i) all have a finite number of possible values and G does not extend to multiple instants in time. That work also is based on a fixed mapping from agents to control devices, so that the the statistical independence of the agents' moves means independence of the device states. This paper also extends that work to relax all of these restrictions. This extends the applicability of that work to include continuous spaces and Reinforcement Learning. This paper also elaborates how some of that earlier work can be viewed as a first-principles justification of evolution-based search algorithms.

Wolpert, David H.↗

An instrumented fastener for shear force measurements in joints

Results are presented of a preliminary investigation of instrumented fasteners for use as sensors to measure the shear loads transmitted by individual fasteners installed in double splice joints. Calibration and load verification tests were conducted for instrumented fasteners installed at three fastener torque levels. Calibration test results show that the shear strains obtained from the instrumented fasteners vary linearly with the applied load and that the instrumented fasteners can be effectively used to measure shear loads transmitted by individual fasteners installed in double splice joints. The load distribution between individual fasteners is found to be dependent on the location of the fastener in the joint and the fastener torque level.

Sawyer, James W.↗

Exploiting replication in distributed systems

Techniques are examined for replicating data and execution in directly distributed systems: systems in which multiple processes interact directly with one another while continuously respecting constraints on their joint behavior. Directly distributed systems are often required to solve difficult problems, ranging from management of replicated data to dynamic reconfiguration in response to failures. It is shown that these problems reduce to more primitive, order-based consistency problems, which can be solved using primitives such as the reliable broadcast protocols. Moreover, given a system that implements reliable broadcast primitives, a flexible set of high-level tools can be provided for building a wide variety of directly distributed application programs.

Birman, Kenneth P.↗

Measurements of fuselage skin strains and displacements near a longitudinal lap joint in a pressurized aircraft

Strains and displacements in a small area near a longitudinal lap joint in the fuselage skin of a B737 aircraft were measured during a pressurization cycle to a differential pressure of 6.2 psi while the aircraft was on the ground. It was found that hoop strains were higher than longitudinal strains at each location; membrane strains in the unreinforced skin were higher than in the joint; membrane strains in the hoop direction, as well as radial displacements, tended to be highest at the mid-bay location between skin reinforcements; significant bending in the hoop direction occurred in the joint and in the skin near the joint, and the bending was unsymmetrically distributed about the stringer at the middle of the joint; and radial displacements were unsymmetrically distributed across the lap joint. The interpretation of the strain gage data for locations on the bonded and riveted lap joint assumed that the joint did not contain disbonded areas.

Phillips, Edward P.↗

Positive phase space distributions and uncertainty relations

In contrast to a widespread belief, Wigner's theorem allows the construction of true joint probabilities in phase space for distributions describing the object system as well as for distributions depending on the measurement apparatus. The fundamental role of Heisenberg's uncertainty relations in Schroedinger form (including correlations) is pointed out for these two possible interpretations of joint probability distributions. Hence, in order that a multivariate normal probability distribution in phase space may correspond to a Wigner distribution of a pure or a mixed state, it is necessary and sufficient that Heisenberg's uncertainty relation in Schroedinger form should be satisfied.

Kruger, Jan↗

On Estimating the Phase of Periodic Waveform in Additive Gaussian Noise, Part 2

Motivated by advances in signal processing technology that support more complex algorithms, a new look is taken at the problem of estimating the phase and other parameters of a periodic waveform in additive Gaussian noise. The general problem was introduced and the maximum a posteriori probability criterion with signal space interpretation was used to obtain the structures of optimum and some suboptimum phase estimators for known constant frequency and unknown constant phase with an a priori distribution. Optimal algorithms are obtained for some cases where the frequency is a parameterized function of time with the unknown parameters and phase having a joint a priori distribution. In the last section, the intrinsic and extrinsic geometry of hypersurfaces is introduced to provide insight to the estimation problem for the small noise and large noise cases.

Rauch, L. L.↗