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82 records · Page 5

CO 2 fertilization of crops offsets yield losses due to future surface ozone damage and climate change

Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) is harmful to plant productivity and negatively impacts crop yields. O3 concentrations are projected to decrease globally in the optimistic Representative Concentration Pathway of 2.6 W m –2 (RCP2.6) but increase globally following the high-emission scenario under the RCP8.5, with substantial implications for global food security. The damaging effect of O 3 on future crop yield is affected by CO 2 fertilization and climate change, and their interactions for RCP scenarios have yet to be quantified. In this study, we used the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) to quantify the impacts, and relative importance of present-day and future O3, CO 2 concentration and meteorology on crop production at the regional scale until 2100 following RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We focus on eight major crop-producing regions that cover the production of wheat, soybean, maize, and rice. Our results show that CO 2 alone has the largest effect on regional yields, followed by climate and O 3 . However, the CO 2 fertilization effect is offset by the negative impact of tropospheric O 3 in regions with high O 3 concentrations, such as South Asia and China. Simulated crop yields in 2050 were compared with Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) statistics to investigate the differences between a socioeconomic and a biophysical process-based approach. Results showed that FAO estimates are closer to our JULES-crop RCP8.5 scenario. This study demonstrates that air pollution could be the biggest threat to future food production and highlights an urgent policy need to mitigate the threat of climate change and O 3 pollution on food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Resilient design in nuclear energy: Critical lessons from a cross-disciplinary analysis of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

This paper presents a multidisciplinary analysis of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Along with the latest observations and simulation studies, we synthesize the time-series and event progressions during the accident across multiple disciplines, including in-plant physics and engineering systems, operators’ actions, emergency responses, meteorology, radionuclide release and transport, land contamination, and health impacts. We identify three key factors that exacerbated the consequences of the accident: (1) the failure of Unit 2 containment venting, (2) the insufficient integration of radiation measurements and meteorology data in the evacuation strategy, and (3) the limited risk assessment and emergency preparedness. We conclude with new research and development directions to improve the resilience of nuclear energy systems and communities, including (1) meteorology-informed proactive venting, (2) machine learning-enabled adaptive evacuation zones, and (3) comprehensive risk-informed emergency planning while leveraging the experience from responses to other disasters.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Airborne flux measurements of ammonia over the Southern Great Plains using chemical ionization mass spectrometry

Ammonia (NH 3 ) is an abundant trace gas in the atmosphere and an important player in atmospheric chemistry, aerosol formation and the atmosphere-surface exchange of nitrogen. It is recognized as a major source of aerosol pollution, and it may limit the formation of cloud nuclei in remote or cold parts of the atmosphere. For soil and plants, NH 3 -mediated nitrogen can act as a harmful pollutant or as a desirable nutrient, mostly in natural and agricultural settings, respectively. Agriculture is also the main source of atmospheric NH 3 via volatilization from fertilizers and manure processing in livestock farming. The accurate determination of NH 3 emission rates remains a challenge, partly due to the propensity of NH 3 to interact with instrument surfaces leading to high detection limits and slow response times. In this paper, we present a new method for quantifying ambient NH 3 , using chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS) with deuterated benzene cations as reagents. The setup aimed at limiting sample-surface interactions and achieved a 1-σ precision of 10–20 pptv and an immediate 1/e response rate < 0.4 s, which compares favorably to the existing state of the art. The sensitivity exhibited an inverse humidity dependence, in particular in relatively dry conditions. Background of up to 10 % of the total signal required consideration as well, as it responded on the order of a few minutes. To showcase the method’s capabilities, we quantified NH3 mixing ratios from measurements obtained during deployment on a Gulfstream I aircraft during the HI-SCALE (Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystems) field campaign in rural Oklahoma during May 2016. Typical mixing ratios were 1–10 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) for the boundary layer and 0.1–1 ppbv in the lower free troposphere. Sharp plumes of up to 10s of ppbv of NH3 were encountered as well. We identified two of their sources as a large fertilizer plant and a cattle farm, and our mixing ratio measurements yielded upper bounds of 350 ± 50 and 0.6 kg NH 3 h –1 for their respective momentary source rates. The fast response of the CIMS also allowed us to derive vertical NH 3 fluxes within the turbulent boundary layer via eddy covariance, for which we chiefly used the continuous wavelet transform technique. As expected for a region dominated by agriculture, we observed predominantly upward fluxes, implying net NH 3 emissions from surface. The corresponding analysis focused on the most suitable flight, which contained two straight-and-level legs at ~300 m above ground. We derived NH 3 fluxes between –4 and 18 mol km –2 h –1 for these legs, at an effective spatial resolution of 1–2 km. The analysis demonstrated how flux measurements benefit from suitably arranged flight tracks with sufficiently long straight-and-level legs, and explores the detrimental effect of measurement discontinuities. Following flux footprint estimations, comparison to the NH 3 area emissions inventory provided by the US Environmental Protection Agency indicated overall agreement, but also the absence of some sources, for instance the identified cattle farm. Our study concludes that high-precision CIMS measurements are a powerful tool for in-situ measurements of ambient NH 3 mixing ratios, and even allow for the airborne mapping of the air-surface exchange of NH 3 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technical note: AQMEII4 Activity 1: evaluation of wet and dry deposition schemes as an integral part of regional-scale air quality models

We present in this technical note the research protocol for phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4). This research initiative is divided into two activities, collectively having three goals: (i) to define the current state of the science with respect to representations of wet and especially dry deposition in regional models, (ii) to quantify the extent to which different dry deposition parameterizations influence retrospective air pollutant concentration and flux predictions, and (iii) to identify, through the use of a common set of detailed diagnostics, sensitivity simulations, model evaluation, and reduction of input uncertainty, the specific causes for the current range of these predictions. Activity 1 is dedicated to the diagnostic evaluation of wet and dry deposition processes in regional air quality models (described in this paper), and Activity 2 to the evaluation of dry deposition point models against ozone flux measurements at multiple towers with multiyear observations (to be described in future submissions as part of the special issue on AQMEII4). The scope of this paper is to present the scientific protocols for Activity 1, as well as to summarize the technical information associated with the different dry deposition approaches used by the participating research groups of AQMEII4. In addition to describing all common aspects and data used for this multi-model evaluation activity, most importantly, we present the strategy devised to allow a common process-level comparison of dry deposition obtained from models using sometimes very different dry deposition schemes. The strategy is based on adding detailed diagnostics to the algorithms used in the dry deposition modules of existing regional air quality models, in particular archiving diagnostics specific to land use–land cover (LULC) and creating standardized LULC categories to facilitate cross-comparison of LULC-specific dry deposition parameters and processes, as well as archiving effective conductance and effective flux as means for comparing the relative influence of different pathways towards the net or total dry deposition. This new approach, along with an analysis of precipitation and wet deposition fields, will provide an unprecedented process-oriented comparison of deposition in regional air quality models. Examples of how specific dry deposition schemes used in participating models have been reduced to the common set of comparable diagnostics defined for AQMEII4 are also presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Contaminant Transport Modeling for Technology Evaluation and Long-Term Monitoring in the Tims Branch Testbed, SC - 20343

Studies conducted at U.S. DOE sites have shown the presence of heavy metals, radionuclides, and volatile organic compounds in surface water, groundwater, and soil as a result of nuclear activity in the Cold War era. Since the 1990's, innovative cleanup methods have been implemented in the Tims Branch watershed at Savannah River Site (SRS) to limit the contaminant flux to the stream that have reduced the contaminant concentrations to acceptable regulatory levels in the dissolved phase. A tin-based treatment which effectively eliminated all local anthropogenic mercury inputs to this ecosystem resulted in a known step function addition of inert tin oxide particles which now serve as a potential tracer for sedimentation and particle transport processes in the stream. The long-term effectiveness of this and other remediation techniques and the potential for remobilization of adsorbed contaminant in sediment during extreme hydrologic conditions however remains unclear. It is therefore important to understand not only the fate and transport of dissolved contaminants, but also the movement of sediment and the relevant interactions with dissolved contaminant. To narrow this knowledge gap, a study is being conducted using the Tims Branch watershed as a stream-scale ecosystem test-bed to identify the primary transport processes of major contaminants of concern (such as mercury, nickel and uranium) with an emphasis on interactions with sediment transport. This involves the development of a fully distributed hydrologic watershed model of the Tims Branch watershed to predict streamflow under extreme weather conditions, as well as the development of a comprehensive contaminant transport model that can properly account for coupled contaminant and sediment transport. Review of relevant research reports and peer-reviewed journals revealed that aside from advection-dispersion transport of dissolved contaminants, adsorption and desorption with suspended solids and bed sediment also play an important role in the transport of those contaminants of concern. To develop the fully distributed hydrologic watershed model, the MIKE SHE 2-dimensional (2D) land surface/3D groundwater model that simulates surface/subsurface hydrologic processes (such as overland flow, evapotranspiration, and infiltration) was coupled with a 1D streamflow model that accounts for stream water hydraulics (such as hydraulic structures, cross-sections, and network). To model contaminant transport, the MIKE 11 streamflow component was coupled with the MIKE 11 AD module that simulates solute transport through advection and dispersion, and MIKE ECO Lab module that accounts for both sediment transport and interactions with dissolved contaminant. At this stage, the development and optimization of the fully distributed hydrologic model has been completed, achieving satisfactory statistical results between observed and predicted discharge as indicated by a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.039 cms and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.764. The ongoing development of the contaminant transport model has also yielded realistic results from preliminary tests. Results from this study are a key to evaluating the effectiveness of tin (II)-based mercury treatment of wetlands at the SRS site, and are also relevant to evaluating the potential of using this type of novel remediation technology in other mercury-contaminated stream systems. Knowledge acquired from this research will also support interpretation of historical data on the trends of contaminant concentration distribution in Tims Branch, particularly considering the effect of extreme hydrological events on the stream flow and pollutant transport. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Enhancement of Optical Efficiency of CSP Mirrors for Reducing O&M Cost via Near-Continuous Operation of Self-Cleaning Electrodynamic Screens (EDS). Final Report

Over the past decade, techno-economical advancements in solar energy systems, particularly the improvement in the conversion efficiency of PV modules made with mono-crystalline silicon solar cells from 12% to 20%, as well as the cost reduction in manufacturing by a factor of about 10%, have made it possible to achieve a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in PV plants that is comparable to, or less than, the cost of deriving electricity from fossil fuels. Operating PV plants in mid-latitude sun-belt regions, where the solar irradiance level is highest, provides a high annual energy-yield (kWh/kWp) due to two factors: (1) the availability of predictable high solar irradiance throughout the year with the fewest interruptions in solar flux from clouds and rain, and (2) the increased conversion efficiency of crystalline solar cells, as recombination loss has decreased with increased intensity of the sunlight that illuminates the silicon solar cells. Semi-arid and desert regions, however, are plagued by high atmospheric dust concentrations and frequent sand storms. The deposition of a layer of dust on the optical surfaces of solar collectors such as PV modules and concentrating mirrors reduces the transmission efficiency of sunlight that actually reaches the solar cells or receivers, resulting in high energy-yield soiling loss. There are two major cost components to operating a solar plant: (1) installation costs, and (2) operation-and-maintenance (O&M) costs. There is no fuel cost; hence operating a solar plant in a semi-arid or desert region provides high returns on investment if soiling losses are mitigated via efficient cleaning methods and optimized cleaning frequency. If solar collectors are not cleaned, the accumulation of dust layers on solar collectors may cause the operation of such plants in arid regions to become economically unviable. Washing solar collectors with water and detergent, as is most commonly done now, is an efficient method for cleaning. The conventional approach in utility-scale solar plants is to use a large truck with a water tank and pump system for spraying deionized water on the surface of the solar collectors. Robotic cleaning with brushes, used for many solar plants, requires lesser water for cleaning. The water consumed using semi-automated cleaning of PV modules in utility-scale solar plants is approximately 2 liters/m 2 per cleaning cycle. The total optical surface area of the solar collectors in 1 TW-scale solar installation will be more than 3 × 109 m 2 ; hence an enormous amount of water be needed for cleaning. There simply is not enough fresh water in the sun-belt areas of the world for predicted cleaning needs. In solar power plants, the estimated cost of cleaning solar collectors includes expenses related to the equipment used, labor, cost of transportation of water, the energy required for cleaning, plus ancillary costs whereas the cost of water is not considered. The water used is obtained from sources located close to plant sites, unmindful of the environmental and societal impact as the power plants are oftentimes located in regions that face severe drought. This practice is very similar to the cost calculations in deriving the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in conventional power plants based on burning fossil fuel such as coal and gas, while disregarding the cost of climate change and health effects. Unless a water-free or low-water cleaning method is established, the expansion of solar plants may lose public support in areas suffering long intervals of drought. The goal of this research project has been the development and application of the Electrodynamic Screen (EDS) as a means for a water-free, scalable cleaning process applicable to solar-power installations, including rooftop applications. We describe here the development of an EDS film-based cleaning process as an emerging method for use on PV modules, parabolic troughs, and heliostats. This report aims to show the feasibility of integrating or retrofitting EDS films onto the optical surfaces of solar collectors (both PV and CSP) while maintaining high transmission or reflection efficiency. The cleaning action provided by the EDS film is an active method to remove dust deposits by electrodynamic force. Current lab-scale prototype EDS films, retrofitted onto solar panels and mirrors, have shown to be capable of maintaining optical transmission or specular-reflection efficiencies higher than 90% of initial values under clean conditions. The optical surfaces of solar collectors laminated with EDS films can remove more than 90% of deposited dust when the EDS is activated for less than two minutes. As an electrodynamic dust removal process, the EDS film-based method is designed primarily for the removal of dust in solar installations located in semi-arid and desert areas, where the atmosphere is often dry and dusty and rainfall is infrequent. While EDS film application minimizes water consumption and facilitates cleaning as frequently as needed, it has limitations in removing contaminants such as soot, organic pollutants deposited as fine films on the surface, and bird droppings. The dust removal efficiency of the EDS is maximum at relative humidity RH is 40 to 50% and decreases at when RH > 65%. Many solar plant sites undergo diurnal and seasonal cycles of high ambient, early afternoon temperatures and an RH that reaches the dew point early in the morning. These variations in atmospheric conditions do not limit the operation of the EDS film. This report presents a brief review of the progress and the potential of EDS film technology for mitigating the impact of dust on solar collectors via water-free cleaning, as well as current technical challenges regarding efficiency and durability. Our experimental data on the performance of EDS films show that: (1) the dust-removal efficiency (DRE) can reach levels higher than 90%, (2) the specular reflectivity (SR) of EDS film-laminated second-surface mirrors reach levels in excess of 90%, (3) the specular reflectivity restoration (SRR) can exceed 90%, (4) the output-power restoration (OPR) of PV modules can exceed 95%, and (5) the optical transmission efficiency (TE) of the EDS films can be greater than 90%. Working with Sandia National Laboratories (NM), Corning Research and Development Corporation (NY), Eastman Kodak (NY), Tomark-Worthen Industries (NH), and EDS Chile SPA (Chile), we have produced EDS film-laminated PV modules and demonstrated their self-cleaning functions without requiring water. We have demonstrated that the operational range of EDS films will cover the expected ambient temperature of solar fields at RH cycling varying from 20 to 95% as long as the EDS films are activated in the RH range 20 to 50%. (Typical solar-field climates in deserts and semi-arid lands often reach near dew point in coastal areas.) Our experiments on the application of hydrophobic-fluorinated nanoparticle coatings on EDS film surfaces show that the EDS operational range can be extended to higher RH levels that approach the dew point. At Eastman Kodak, as one of our industrial partners, we were able to establish a process for manufacturing EDS films using flexographic printing of the electrodes onto transparent polymer films. This process utilizes an existing manufacturing line at Eastman Kodak that allows fabrication of medium-scale EDS films (26 cm × 30 cm). The manufacturing process has the capacity to produce EDS films at high production speeds. The medium-scale EDS films that have been printed at Kodak were evaluated in the lab at Boston University. The EDS films produced at Kodak were laminated at Tomark-Worthen using an industrial scale vacuum laminator to produce EDS film stacks, which can be affixed onto the optical surfaces of PV modules or concentrating mirrors. The EDS film stack consists of the EDS films that have Willow® Glass (WG) which has a thickness of 100 μm as the front surface. The WG sheets obtained from Corning Research and Development Corporation are customized in size and shape to cover the active area of the EDS films. The back surface of the EDS film stack is integrated onto the optical surface of the solar panel or mirror using optically clear adhesive (OCA) films or silicone adhesives. The OCA films (thickness 25 μm) are produced by 3M. The EDS film stacks have the architecture: WG/OCA/EDS Film/OCA/ over PV module or solar mirror. The power-supply units needed for activating the electrodes of the EDS film were designed and produced at Boston University. These power supply units provide three-phase, 1.2 kV voltage pulses at a very low current (micro-ampere) level and at a low frequency (≈ 5 Hz). The voltage pulses are applied to the electrodes in a sequence such that the train of pulses resembles a unidirectional traveling wave of electrical field on the surface of the EDS film. The dust particles on the surface become charged electrostatically and are levitated by the Coulomb force. The lateral sweeping action of the traveling electric field created by the three-phase voltages pulses then sweeps the dust off the surface. The energy consumed by the EDS electrodes is less than 0.2 Wh/m 2 /cleaning cycle, enabling energy-efficient restoration of output power (OPR) of PV module or specular reflectivity restoration (SRR) for solar mirrors. The EDS system consists of (1) an EDS film stack laminated onto the solar collectors, (2) connection of the EDS film to its power supply unit and (3) Interconnection of the power supply to PV modules or solar mirrors. Design, construction and assessment of field-testing units that have EDS stack laminated PV modules for evaluating the performance of the EDS films in solar fields is being carried out at BU. Our progress under this project, aimed at the advancement of EDS film technology, has reached DOE Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6. Based on the extensive laboratory evaluations and limited field trials, as well as contacts with potential users, we believe that the technology has reached its commercial stage. We are conducting a cost analysis using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) System Advisory Model (SAM) and are preparing for field trials of EDS films in different solar fields in the US, Chile, India and in the Middle East. A brief description of EDS film performance, construction and testing of the field-test unit, autonomous operation of the field-test unit for evaluating EDS performance in increasing energy yield, associated revenue savings, and water conservation is presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

“Gray Zone” Simulations Using a Three-Dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Abstract Generating accurate weather forecasts of planetary boundary layer (PBL) properties is challenging in many geographical regions, oftentimes due to complex topography or horizontal variability in, for example, land characteristics. While recent advances in high-performance computing platforms have led to an increase in the spatial resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, the horizontal gridcell spacing (Δ x ) of many regional-scale NWP models currently fall within or are beginning to approach the gray zone (i.e., Δ x ≈ 100–1000 m). At these gridcell spacings, three-dimensional (3D) effects are important, as the most energetic turbulent eddies are neither fully parameterized (as in traditional mesoscale simulations) nor fully resolved [as in traditional large-eddy simulations (LES)]. In light of this modeling challenge, we have implemented a 3D PBL parameterization for high-resolution mesoscale simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The PBL scheme, which is based on the algebraic model developed by Mellor and Yamada, accounts for the 3D effects of turbulence by calculating explicitly the momentum, heat, and moisture flux divergences in addition to the turbulent kinetic energy. In this study, we present results from idealized simulations in the gray zone that illustrate the benefit of using a fully consistent turbulence closure framework under convective conditions. While the 3D PBL scheme reproduces the evolution of convective features more appropriately than the traditional 1D PBL scheme, we highlight the need to improve the turbulent length scale formulation. Significance Statement The spatial resolution of weather models continues to increase at a rapid rate in accordance with the enhancement of computing power. As a result, smaller-scale atmospheric features become more explicitly resolved. However, most numerical models still ignore the impact of horizontal weather variations on boundary layer flows, which becomes more important at these smaller spatial scales. To address this issue, we have implemented a new modeling approach, using fundamental principles, which accounts for horizontal variability. Our results show that including three-dimensional effects of turbulence is necessary to achieve realistic boundary layer characteristics. This novel technique may be useful for many applications including complex terrain flows, pollutant dispersion, and surface–atmosphere interaction studies.

Juliano, Timothy W.↗

Affinity of LDR Organics to Cementitious Materials: Sorption and Leaching Tests

SRNL is working to identify and test the physiochemical interactions of organic contaminants of potential concern with minerals in grout/cementitious materials. Organic species may interact with cementitious minerals including slag, fly ash, cement, and other components/dopants like carbon in fly ash. The identification of such interactions will support the solidification process design, performance assessments for the chemicals of concern, and a proposed Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) treatment variance specified for the Land Disposal Restriction (LDR) organics associated with Hanford tank waste. Inably expected to be present LDR organics associated with Hanford tank waste (RPP-RPT-63493, Rev 1a) was screened by functional groups, octanol-water partitioning coefficients, and detection frequency in Hanford tank waste samples. A subset of 10 compounds, spanning the identified properties, were tested using sorption and leachate tests. These compounds were subjected to traditional batch sorption tests and leaching tests on/from Cast Stone cementitious material with and without activated carbon (a potential organic adsorption additive). The interactions between organic compounds were observed in traditional batch sorption and modified Toxic Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) leachate tests for a surrogate Cast Stone material with and without an activated carbon addition. Specifically, phthalic acids (negatively charged) and 4-chloroaniline (polar) sorbed strongly to unmodified Cast Stone and a group of 3 phenolic compounds (2,4,6-Trichlorophenol, Pentachlorophenol, o-Cresol) were sorbed to and were retained by Cast Stone with a 1% activated carbon amendment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Olivine Dissolution in Simulated Lung and Gastric Fluid as an Analog to the Behavior of Lunar Particulate Matter Inside the Human Respiratory and Gastrointestinal Systems

With the Artemis III mission scheduled to land humans on the Moon in 2025, work must be done to understand the hazards lunar dust inhalation would pose to humans. In this study, San Carlos olivine was used as an analog of lunar olivine, a common component of lunar dust. Olivine was dissolved in a flow-through apparatus in both simulated lung fluid and 0.1 M HCl (simulated gastric fluid) over a period of approximately 2 weeks at physiological temperature, 37°C. Effluent samples were collected periodically and analyzed for pH, iron, silicon, and magnesium ion concentrations. The dissolution rate data derived from our measurements allow us to estimate that an inhaled 1.0 μm diameter olivine particle would take approximately 24 years to dissolve in the human lungs and approximately 3 weeks to dissolve in gastric fluid. Results revealed that inhaled olivine particles may generate the toxic chemical, hydroxyl radical, for up to 5–6 days in lung fluid. Olivine dissolved in 0.1 M HCl for 2 weeks transformed to an amorphous silica-rich solid plus the ferric iron oxy-hydroxide ferrihydrite. Olivine dissolved in simulated lung fluid shows no detectable change in composition or crystallinity. Equilibrium thermodynamic models indicate that olivine in the human lungs can precipitate secondary minerals with fibrous crystal structures that have the potential to induce detrimental health effects similar to asbestos exposure. Our work indicates that inhaled lunar dust containing olivine can settle in the human lungs for years and could induce long-term potential health effects like that of silicosis.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗