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At least 91 records · Page 5

A comparison of Nimbus 7 limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere and radiosonde temperatures in the lower stratosphere poleward of 60N

The quality of the more widely used, mapped version of the LIMS temperature data set (LAMAT) is assessed for the polar lower stratosphere by comparison with lower stratospheric radiosonde (RAOB) temperatures at a set of 22 stations. Average LIMS minus uncorrected RAOB values are within +/-0.3 K at 30, 50, and 70 hPa, and -1.2 +/-2.2 K at 100 hPa. The generally excellent LIMS/RAOB temperature comparisons at 10 to 70 hPa support the contention that there are no significant temperature bias errors in the LIMS constituent distributions for polar regions. LIMS minus RAOB differences at 100 hPa are slightly negative for the present station set, in agreement with that found by Grose et al. (1988). The month-by-month LIMS minus RAOB analysis at 100 hPa showed that LIMS is -1.9 +/-1.8 K too cold in November and December.

Remsberg, Ellis E.↗

Large Ensemble Particle Filter for Spatial Climate Reconstructions Using a Linear Inverse Model

Proxy records that document the last 2000 years of climate provide evidence for the wide range of the natural climate variability from inter-annual to secular timescales not captured by the short window of recent direct observations. Assessing climate models ability to reproduce such natural variations is crucial to understand climate sensitivity and impacts of future climate change. Paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) offers a powerful way to extend the short instrumental period by optimally combining the physics described by General Circulation Climate Models (GCMs) with information from available proxy records while taking into account their uncertainties. Here we present a new PDA approach based on a sequential importance resampling (SIR) Particle filter (PF) that uses Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) as an emulator of several CMIP-class GCMs. We examine in a perfect-model framework the skill of the various LIMs to forecast the dynamics of the surface temperatures and provide spatial field reconstructions over the last millennium in a SIR PF. Our results show that the LIMs allow for skillful ensemble forecasts at 1-year lead-time based on GCMs dynamical knowledge with best prediction in the tropics and the North Atlantic. The PDA further provides a set of physically consistent spatial fields allowing robust uncertainty quantification related to climate models biases and proxy spatial sampling. Our results indicate that the LIM yields dynamical memory improving climate variability reconstructions and support the use of the LIM as a GCM-emulator in real reconstruction to propagate large ensembles of particles at low cost in SIR PF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predictability and empirical dynamics of fisheries time series in the North Pacific

Previous studies have documented a strong relationship between marine ecosystems and large-scale modes of sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Pacific such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. In the central and western North Pacific along the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE), the expression of these modes in SSH and SST is linked to the propagation of long oceanic Rossby waves, which extend the predictability of the climate system to ~3 years. Using a multivariate physical-biological linear inverse model (LIM) we explore the extent to which this physical predictability leads to multi-year prediction of dominant fishery indicators inferred from three datasets (i.e., estimated biomasses, landings, and catches). We find that despite the strong autocorrelation in the fish indicators, the LIM adds dynamical forecast skill beyond persistence up to 5-6 years. By performing a sensitivity analysis of the LIM forecast model, we find that two main factors are essential for extending the dynamical predictability of the fishery indicators beyond persistence. The first is the interaction of the fishery indicators with the SST/SSH of the North and tropical Pacific. The second is the empirical relationship among the fisheries time series. This latter component reflects stock-stock interactions as well as common technological and human socioeconomic factors that may influence multiple fisheries and are captured in the training of the LIM. These results suggest that empirical dynamical models and machine learning algorithms, such as the LIM, provide an alternative and promising approach for forecasting key ecological indicators beyond the skill of persistence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of calculated odd nitrogen distributions to the diabatic wind fields

This paper compares atmospheric total odd nitrogen and ozone computed with two different advective wind fields, one using climatological averages of ozone and temperature to obtain monthly averaged horizontal and vertical winds and the other using measurements from the LIMS instrument. Calculations using the former data show stronger poleward and downward motion in the winter season compared to those using the LIMS data. This leads to NO(y) mixing ratios in the lower stratosphere that are about 20 percent larger in the polar regions of both hemispheres and about 40 percent higher in the equatorial region for climatological transport fields compared to those derived from LIMS data. Consequently, the NO(y) distributions calculated with the LIMS advective field show worse agreement with the NO(y) values inferred from the LIMS measurements than similar results obtained with the climatological wind field.

Boughner, R. E.↗

Analysis of observations of the middle atmosphere from satellites

Satellite data are being used to investigate problems in middle atmosphere chemistry and dynamics. Efforts have been focused primarily on studies to determine the quality of observed distributions of trace species and derived dynamical quantities. Those data have been used as diagnostics for model-derived constituent profiles and fields and for improving our understanding of some of the fundamental processes occurring in the middle atmosphere. Temperatures and derived winds from Nimbus 7 Limb Infrared Monitoring of the Stratosphere (LIMS) data were compared with long-time series of rawinsonde data at Invercargill, New Zealand, and Berlin, West Germany, and the results are excellent for both quantities. It was also demonstrated that more highly-derived dynamical quantities can be obtained reliably from those LIMS fields. Furthermore, both the diabatic and residual-mean circulations derived using LIMS data agree qualitatively with changes in the distribution of trace species determined independently with the Nimbus 7 SAMS and LIMS experiments. Subsequently, an examination of LIMS data at mid to high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere has revealed a synoptic-scale, upper stratospheric instability during late autumn that is associated with the development of the stratospheric polar jet. Investigation of this phenomenon continues with Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) data sets.

Remsberg, Ellis E.↗

Satellite observation and mapping of wintertime ozone variability in the lower stratosphere

Comparison is made between 30 mbar ozone fields that are generated by a transport chemistry model utilizing the winds from the Goddard Space Flight Center stratospheric data assimilation system (STRATAN), observations from the LIMS instrument on Nimbus-7, and the ozone fields that result from 'flying a mathematical simulation of LIMS observations through the transport chemistry model ozone fields. The modeled ozone fields were found to resemble the LIMS observations, but the model fields show much more temporal and spatial structure than do the LIMS observations. The 'satellite mapped' model results resemble the LIMS observations much more closely. These results are very consistent with the earlier discussions of satellite space-time sampling by Salby.

Geller, Marvin A.↗

Satellite observation and mapping of wintertime ozone variability in the lower stratosphere

Comparison is made between 30 mbar ozone fields that are generated by a transport chemistry model utilizing the winds from the Goddard Space Flight Center stratospheric data assimilation system (STRATAN), observations from the LIMS instrument on Nimbus-7, and the ozone fields that result from 'flying' a mathematical simulation of LIMS observations through the transport chemistry model ozone fields. The modeled ozone fields were found to resemble the LIMS observations, but the model fields show much more temporal and spatial structure than do the LIMS observations. The 'satellite mapped' model results resemble the LIMS observations much more closely. These results are very consistent with the earlier discussions of satellite space-time sampling by Salby.

Geller, M. A.↗

The accuracy of temperature distributions used to derive the net transport for a zonally averaged model

Comparisons of satellite-derived temperatures with correlative temperatures indicate that the LIMS temperatures are accurate and contain more of the needed vertical resolution for calculating a residual mean circulation for transporting tracer-like species. Generally, the LIMS temperatures are accurate to at least 2 K. Other satellite data sets are comprised of temperatures with coarser vertical resolution, leading to biases that occur with an error pattern that is characteristic of their resolution. Their biases exceed 2 K at some altitudes. Retrievals of species using an infrared limb emission technique are sensitive to any temperature bias. Generally, the IMS comparisons with other data sets for ozone and water vapor are good to better than 20 percent; this represents an independent confirmation of the quality of LIMS and temperatures. Zonal mean comparisons between LIMS and SAMS temperatures also indicate agreement to better than 2 K from about 7 to 2hPa. Therefore, we are confident that SAMS N2O and CH4 are relatively free of temperature bias in that region. These factors support the generally good agreement in G90 between model N2O transported using a LIMS-derived RMC and the N2O contours from SAMS.

Remsberg, Ellis E.↗

On the determination of biases in satellite-derived temperature profiles

Comparisons are presented between Nimbus 7 LIMS (Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere) mapped temperatures and both Datasonde and sphere in situ rocketsonde temperature measurements. With this approach up to 666 LIMS/Datasonde pairs were obtained for various pressure levels to look for small biases in LIMS temperatures as a function of altitude, latitude and season. Between 10-1 hPa LIMS and Datasonde agree everywhere to better than +/- 2 K with the exception of a warm bias of about 3 K at 2 hPa at high latitudes. However, LIMS is colder than the Datasonde by about 4 K at 0.4 hPa and by about 8-10 K at 0.1 hPa. When compared with the more accurate sphere temperatures the bias at 0.1 hPa is reduced by nearly one-half. These results indicate that the LIMS zonal mean constituent profiles are nearly free of temperature bias, except perhaps at 0.1 hPa.

Bhatt, Praful P.↗

Neutrino Properties with Ground-based Millimeter-wavelength Line Intensity Mapping

Line intensity mapping (LIM) is emerging as a powerful technique to map the cosmic large-scale structure and to probe cosmology over a wide range of redshifts and spatial scales. We perform Fisher forecasts to determine the optimal design of wide-field ground-based millimeter-wavelength LIM surveys for constraining properties of neutrinos and light relics. We consider measuring the auto-power spectra of several CO rotational lines (from J = 2–1 to J = 6–5) and the [C II ] fine-structure line in the redshift range of 0.25 < z < 12. We study the constraints with and without interloper lines as a source of noise in our analysis, and for several one-parameter and multiparameter extensions of ΛCDM. We show that LIM surveys deployable this decade, in combination with existing cosmic microwave background (CMB; primary) data, could achieve order-of-magnitude improvements over Planck constraints on N eff and M ν . Compared to next-generation CMB and galaxy surveys, a LIM experiment of this scale could achieve bounds that are a factor of ~3 better than those forecasted for surveys such as EUCLID (galaxy clustering), and potentially exceed the constraining power of CMB-S4 by a factor of ~1.5 and ~3 for N eff and M ν , respectively. Finally, we show that the forecasted constraints are not substantially affected when enlarging the parameter space, and additionally demonstrate that such a survey could also be used to measure ΛCDM parameters and the dark energy equation of state exquisitely well.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Inversion of limb radiance measurements - An operational algorithm

The limb radiance inversion radiometer (LRIR) and limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) experiments aboard the Nimbus 6 and 7 spacecraft have made observations of infrared emission by CO2, O3, H2O, HNO3, and NO2 at the earth's limb. This paper describes a method by which such measurements can be inverted to give vertical distributions of temperature and mixing ratios as functions of pressure. The simple and efficient approach was successfully applied to the LRIR data and subsequently in the initial assessment of the LIMS data. Inversion of synthetic data indicates the size of the errors to be expected as a result of the assumptions and instrumental errors. Retrievals of measured LIMS radiances are shown as examples and compared to in situ observations. The differences are comparable to those obtained with the more complex retrieval scheme used to process the LIMS archival products. Some problems are noted.

Bailey, P. L.↗

Ground-based microwave observations of ozone in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere

A 9-month-long series of mesurements of ozone in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere is reported. The measurements are presented as monthly averages of profiles in blocks of roughly 20 min local time and as night-to-day ratios. An error analysis predicts accuracies of 5-26% for the monthly profiles and 2.5-9% for the ratios. The data are compared to historical data from Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) and limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS), and it is shown how to remove the effect of different vertical resolution from the comparisons. The microwave data typically agree to better than 10% with SMF and nighttime LIMS ozone at all altitudes below the 0.1-mbar surface. Comparison of the microwave night-to-day ratio with the corresponding ratio from LIMS suggests that nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium effects in the LIMS daytime data exceed 10% at all pressures less than or equal to 1 mbar.

Connor, Brian J.↗

Atmospheric Effects of Energetic Particle Precipitation in the Arctic Winter 1978-1979 Revisited

The Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) measured polar stratospheric enhancements of NO2 mixing ratios due to energetic particle precipitation (EPP) in the Arctic winter of 1978-1979. Recently reprocessed LIMS data are compared to more recent measurements from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) and the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS) to place the LIMS measurements in the context of current observations. The amount of NOx (NO + NO2) entering the stratosphere that has been created by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (EPP-NOx) has been quantified for the 1978-1979 and 2002-2003 through 2008-2009 Arctic winters. The NO2 enhancements in the LIMS data are similar to those in MIPAS and ACE-FTS data in the Arctic winters of 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2006-2007, and 2007-2008. The largest enhancement by far is in 2003-2004 (approximately 2.2 Gmol at 1500 K), which is attributed to a combination of elevated EPP and unusual dynamics that led to strong descent in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere in late winter. The enhancements in 2005-2006 and 2008-2009, during which large stratospheric NOx enhancements were caused by a dynamical situation similar to that in 2003 2004, are larger than in all the other years (except 2003-2004) at 3000 K. However, by 2000 K the enhancements in 2005-2006 (2008-2009) are on the same order of magnitude as (smaller than) all other years. These results highlight the importance of the timing of the descent in determining the potential of EPP-NOx for reaching the middle stratosphere.

Holt, L. A.↗

Reservoir Computing as a Tool for Climate Predictability Studies

Reduced-order dynamical models play a central role in developing our understanding of predictability of climate irrespective of whether we are dealing with the actual climate system or surrogate climate models. In this context, the linear inverse modeling (LIM) approach, by capturing a few essential interactions between dynamical components of the full system, has proven valuable in providing insights into predictability of the full system. We demonstrate that reservoir computing (RC), a form of learning suitable for systems with chaotic dynamics, provides an alternative nonlinear approach that improves on the predictive skill of the LIM approach. We do this in the example setting of predicting sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic in the preindustrial control simulation of a popular earth system model, the Community Earth System Model so that we can compare the performance of the new RC-based approach with the traditional LIM approach both when learning data are plentiful and when such data are more limited. The improved predictive skill of the RC approach over a wide range of conditions—larger number of retained EOF coefficients, extending well into the limited data regime, etc.—suggests that this machine-learning technique may have a use in climate predictability studies. While the possibility of developing a climate emulator—the ability to continue the evolution of the system on the attractor long after failing to be able to track the reference trajectory—is demonstrated in the Lorenz-63 system, it is suggested that further development of the RC approach may permit such uses of the new approach in more realistic predictability studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intrinsic Century-Scale Variability in Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and Their Influence on Western US Hydroclimate

Hydroclimate variability of the southwest United States (SWUS) is influenced by the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly through the teleconnection to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is expected to be altered by climate change. Natural variability in this teleconnection has not been robustly quantified, complicating the detection of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we use a linear inverse model (LIM) to quantify natural variability in the ENSO-SWUS teleconnection. The LIM yields realistic teleconnection patterns with century-scale variability comparable to simulations from the Last Millennium Ensemble project and the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6. The variability quantified by the LIM illuminates two aspects of our understanding of ENSO and its impacts: the inherent statistics of the observable system can produce century-long periods with a wide range of correlations to SWUS hydroclimate, including nonsignificant correlations, and thus that detecting changes in ENSO-related hydroclimate variability is challenging in a changing climate.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Constraining cosmology with the CMB × line intensity mapping-nulling convergence

Lensing reconstruction maps from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) provide direct observations of the matter distribution of the universe without the use of a biased tracer. Such maps, however, constitute projected observables along the line of sight that are dominated by their low-redshift contributions. To cleanly access high-redshift information, Maniyar et al., [Phys. Rev. D 105, 083509 (2022)] showed that a linear combination of lensing maps from both CMB and line intensity mapping (LIM) observations can exactly null the low-redshift contribution to CMB lensing convergence. In this paper we explore the scientific returns of this nulling technique. Here, we show that LIM-nulling estimators can place constraints on standard Λ⁢CDM plus neutrino mass parameters that are competitive with traditional CMB lensing. Additionally, we demonstrate that as a clean probe of the high-redshift universe, LIM nulling can be used for model-independent tests of cosmology beyond Λ⁢CDM and as a probe of the high-redshift matter power spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SPT-SLIM: Line Intensity Mapping with the South Pole Telescope

Line-intensity mapping (LIM) at millimeter wavelengths is a powerful emerging probe of the large-scale structure of the Universe, but achieving meaningful constraints on cosmological parameters with LIM requires focal planes with orders of magnitudes more detectors than existing instruments. SPT-SLIM is an upcoming experiment to demonstrate LIM observations of CO at 0.5 < z < 2.0 using on-chip spectrometers with kinetic inductance detectors (KIDs), a new technology that enables scaling to the much larger arrays of detectors needed to probe cosmology. I will describe the overall experimental design and specific goals of SPT-SLIM. In addition, I will highlight results of the detector and readout electronics development for SPT-SLIM and the status of the camera integration and commissioning in the lab.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Atmospheric Modeling and Denoising for Millimeter-Wave Line Intensity Mapping

Line-intensity mapping (LIM) offers a promising approach to mapping large-scale cosmic structure, and the greatest obstacle for ground-based observations at millimeter wavelengths is foreground contamination from atmospheric emission. In this work, we present a simulation and denoising framework designed to isolate and subtract atmospheric fluctuations from LIM data, modeled after the instrument parameters of the South Pole Telescope Summertime Line Intensity Mapper (SPT-SLIM). We generate mock observations spanning 125-175 GHz containing cosmic signals, precipitable water vapor screens, ice crystal fluctuations, and photon noise. We then implement a spatial-spectral atmospheric removal pipeline combining per-pixel linear template regression with a two-dimensional Fourier-domain filter. The framework is evaluated under simulated conditions in the South Pole and the Atacama Desert across three key metrics: cosmic signal preservation, foreground subtraction efficiency, and instrument noise injection. Our pipeline achieves atmospheric suppression at large spatial scales, and these results establish a physically grounded foundation for atmosphere removal in ground-based LIM data collection.

Saye, Laney [UC, Berkeley (main)] (ORCID:000900078↗