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Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

land use change↗

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

Krause, A.↗

CARETS: A prototype regional environmental information system. Volume 3: Toward a national land use information system

It is recommended that a national land use information system be established by an agency of the Federal Government. This recommendation comes at a time of increasing demand for scientific information in support of environmentally relevant land use planning and management at all levels of government. It is also a time when new airborne and spaceborne remote sensors, tested in cooperation with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Program of the Department of the Interior, make possible the gathering of land use information rapidly and on an unprecedented scale. Furthermore, information handling technology is developing toward a capability to receive, store, and disseminate the huge quantities of data that would be involved. The recommendation for the national land use information system is based upon careful analysis of the results of remote sensing experiments funded by NASA, EROS, and the Geography Program of the Geological Survey, with specific examples drawn from the demonstration project known as the Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site (CARETS). CARETS is cast in the framework of a regional land use information system, channeling the flow bf information generated in response to users' declaration of their needs, through stages dealing with remote sensing data gathering systems, data processing and land mensuration, calibration in-terms of environmental impact, and evaluation with feedback from users. The proposed system would develop and implement a unified approach to the description and interpretation of the changing uses of the nation's land resources, building upon the base of interagency and intergovernmental cooperation already achieved in the experimental work to date. The land use data base that is being derived from high-altitude aerial color infrared photography would be the initial component of the recommended system. High-altitude photographic coverage would immediately be extended to as much of the nation as possible as technological developments and economic considerations permit. The system would later expand to include multiple-sensor, multiple-platform data sources. Six system characteristics are recommended: (1) High capacity storage of data available for quick retrieval, inexpensive processing, and update, (2) provision of accuracy appropriate to the scale of survey or to the level of detail dictated by different types of management and decision requirements; (3) permanent, publicly accessible sensor records for historical interpretation; (4) compatibility of the recording, storage, and retrieval system with all types of inputs, from ground observer to satellite; (5) products of diverse formats and scales, responsive to user feedback; (6) and standardization of formats, scales, and storage inputs to permit nationwide comparability.

Land use mapping↗

LUMIS: A Land Use Management Information System for urban planning

The Land Use Management Information System (LUMIS) consists of a methodology of compiling land use maps by means of air photo interpretation techniques, digitizing these and other maps into machine-readable form, and numerically overlaying these various maps in two computer software routines to provide land use and natural resource data files referenced to the individual census block. The two computer routines are the Polygon Intersection Overlay System (PIOS) and an interactive graphics APL program. A block referenced file of land use, natural resources, geology, elevation, slope, and fault-line items has been created and supplied to the Los Angeles Department of City Planning for the City's portion of the Santa Monica Mountains. In addition, the interactive system contains one hundred and seventy-three socio-economic data items created by merging the Third Count U.S. Census Bureau tapes and the Los Angeles County Secured Assessor File. This data can be graphically displayed for each and every block, block group, or tract for six test tracts in Woodland Hills, California. Other benefits of LUMIS are the knowledge of air photo availability, flight pattern coverage and frequencies, and private photogrammetry companies flying Southern California, as well as a formal Delphi study of relevant land use informational needs in the Santa Monicas.

Paul, C. K.↗

Machine aided multispectral analysis utilizing Skylab thermal data for land use mapping

Skylab eight channel multispectral scanner data obtained in January 1974, was used for land-use analysis of Allen County, Indiana. The data-set which includes one visible channel, four near infrared channels, two middle infrared channels, and one far infrared channel was from the X-5 detector array of the S-192 experiment in the Earth Resources Experiment Package on board Skylab. The results indicate that a good-quality far infrared (thermal) channel is very valuable for land use mapping during the winter months.

Biehl, L. L.↗

Application of spatial features to satellite land-use analysis

A Level I land-use analysis of selected training areas of the Colorado Front Range was carried out using digital ERTS-A satellite imagery. Level I land-use categories included urban, agriculture (irrigated and dryland farming), rangeland, and forests. The spatial variations in spectral response for these land-use classes were analyzed using discrete two-dimensional Fourier transforms to isolate and extract spatial features. Analysis was performed on ERTS frame 1352-17134 (July 10, 1973) and frame number 1388-17131 (August 15, 1973). On training sets, spatial features yielded 80 to 100 percent classification accuracies with commission errors ranging from 0 to 20 percent.

Smith, J.↗

Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6

Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth's surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community has developed the next generation of advanced Earth system models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g., land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon–climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, is required as input for these models. With most ESM simulations for CMIP6 now completed, it is important to document the land use patterns used by those simulations. Here we present results from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, which smoothly connects updated historical reconstructions of land use with eight new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land use patterns, underlying land use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds on a similar effort from CMIP5 and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25°×0.25°) over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300) with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices) using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data) and updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation); it is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5 and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land use on the global carbon–climate system.

land use land cover change↗

Land Use Control Implementation Plan

This Land Use Control Implementation Plan (LUCIP) has been prepared to inform current and potential future users of Building M7-505 of institutional controls that have been implemented at the site. Although there are no current unacceptable risks to human health or the environment associated with Building M7-505, institutional land use controls (LUCs) are necessary to prohibit the use of groundwater from the site. LUCs are also necessary to prevent access to soil under electrical equipment in the northwest portion of the site. Controls necessary to prevent human exposure will include periodic inspection, condition certification, and agency notification.

Land Use Control↗

Policy implications in developing a land use management information systems

The current land use map for the city of Los Angeles was developed by the guesstimation process and provides single stage information for each level in the critical geographical hierarchy for land use planning management. Processing and incorporation of LANDSAT data in the land use information system requires special funding; however, computergraphic maps are able to provide a viable information system for city planning and management.

Landini, A. J.↗

Land use survey and mapping and water resources investigation in Korea

The author has identified the following significant results. Land use imagery is applicable to land use classification for small scale land use mapping less than 1:250,000. Land use mapping by satellite is more efficient and more cost-effective than land use mapping from conventional medium altitude aerial photographs. Six categories of level 1 land use classification are recognizable from MSS imagery. A hydrogeomorphological study of the Han River basin indicates that band 7 is useful for recognizing the soil and the weathering part of bed rock. The morphological change of the main river is accurately recognized and the drainage system in the area observed is easily classified because of the more or less simple rock type. Although the direct hydrological characteristics are not obtained from the MSS imagery, the indirect information such as the permeability of the soil and the vegetation cover, is helpful in interpreting the hydrological aspects.

Choi, J. H.↗

Urban and regional land use analysis: CARETS and Census Cities experiment package

The author has identified the following significant results. Areas of post 1970 and 1972 land use changes were identified solely from the Skylab imagery from comparisons with 1970 land use maps. Most land use changes identified involved transition from agriculture to single family residential land use. The second most prominent changes identified from the Skylab imagery were areas presently under construction. Post 1970 changes from Skylab were compared with the 1972 changes noted from the high altitude photographs. A good correlation existed between the change polygons mapped from Skylab and those mapped from the 1972 high altitude aerial photos. In addition, there were a number of instances where additional built-up land use not noted in the 1972 aerial photo as being developed were identified on the Skylab imagery. While these cases have not been documented by field observation, by correlating these areas with the appearance of similar land use areas whose identity has been determined, we can safely say that we have been able to map further occurrences of land use change beyond existing high altitude photo coverage from the Skylab imagery. It was concluded that Skylab data can be used to detect areas of land use change within an urban setting.

Alexander, R. H.↗

Land use and environmental assessment in the central Atlantic region

Data from high altitude aircraft, LANDSAT and Skylab were used in a comprehensive regional survey of land use and its associated environmental impact in the Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site (CARETS). Each sensor system has advantages that were demonstrated by producing experimental land use maps and other data products, applying them to typical problems encountered in regional planning and environmental impact assessment, and presenting the results to prospective users for evaluation. An archival collection of imagery, maps, data summaries, and technical reports was assembled, constituting an environmental profile of the central Atlantic region. The investigation was organized into four closely-related modules, a land use information module, an environmental impact module, a user interaction and evaluation module, and a geographic information systems module. Results revealed a heterogeneous user community with diverse information needs, tending, however, definitely toward the higher-resolution sensor data and the larger-scale land use maps and related information products. Among project recommendations are greater efforts toward improving compatibility of federal, state, and local land use information programs, and greater efforts toward a broader exchange of imagery, computer tapes, and land use information derived therefrom.

Alexander, R. H.↗

Land-Use Harmonization Datasets for Global Carbon Budget 2019 and Beyond

Land-use change has been the dominant source of anthropogenic carbon emissions for most of the historical period, and is currently one of the largest and most uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Advancing the scientific understanding on this topic requires that the best data be used as input to the best models in well-organized scientific assessments. The Land-Use Harmonization dataset (LUH2), previously developed and used as input for CMIP6 simulations, has been updated annually to provide required input to land models in the annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessment. These annual LUH2-GCB updates and extensions have incorporated annual FAO wood harvest data updates for dataset years after 2015 and HYDE gridded agriculture area data updates (based on annual FAO agricultural area data updates) for dataset years after 2012, along with extrapolations to the current year due to a lag of one or more years in the FAO data releases. The resulting updated LUH2-GCB datasets have provided global, annual gridded land-use and land-use change data relating toagricultural expansion, deforestation, wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, regrowth and afforestation, and crop rotationsand pasture managementand are used by both book-keeping models and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) for the GCB. For GCB 2019,a more significant update to LUH2 was produced (LUH2-GCB2019) to correct cropland and grazing area errors in the underlying input datasets for the globally important region of Brazil, as far back as 1950. From 1951-2012 the LUH2-GCB2019 dataset begins to diverge from the LUH2 v2hdataset, with peak differences in Brazil in the year 2000 for grazing land (difference of 100,000 km2) and in the year 2009 for cropland (difference of 77,000 km2), along with significant sub-national reorganization of agricultural land-use patterns within Brazil. These LUH2-GCB2019 corrections for Brazil provide the base for future LUH2-GCB updates including the recent LUH2-GCB2020 dataset, and present a starting point for operationalizing the creation of these datasets toreduce time-lags due to the multiple input dataset and model latencies.

L Chini↗

Remote sensing of effects of land use practices on water quality

An intensive study was conducted to determine the utility of manual densitometry and color additive viewing of aircraft and LANDSAT transparencies for monitoring land use and land use change. The relationship between land use and selected water quality parameters was also evaluated. Six watersheds located in the Cumberland Plateau region of eastern Kentucky comprised the study area for the project. Land uses present within the study area were reclaimed surface mining and forestry. Fertilization of one of the forested watersheds also occurred during the study period.

Graves, D. H.↗

Land use determination by remote sensor analysis

A land use analysis of 18 selected census tracts in the Metropolitan Washington area using aerial photography was undertaken. A comparison of the results was made with comparable land use data from the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments' Parcel File, and the results reported. Summary conclusions and recommendations for the use of photo-derived data in land use studies by COG are made.

Mallon, H. J.↗

Land Use and Mapping

From the standpoint of technology, the most encouraging thing about ERTS has been the level of land-use identification. Land-use detail has exceeded the expectations of the Interagency Steering Committee and the requirements of land-use classification proposed by the Department of Interior. Whereas in the latter instance it was anticipated that only nine classes of land use would probably be identifiable, in fact some 14 to 18 classes have been identified. The success in the level of land-use identification results primarily from the various attributes of the ERTS system. These include the ability to provide repetitive coverage, and in particular seasonal coverage; the ability to image in four bands of the electromagnetic spectrum (green, red, and two near-infrared), which allows for manipulation of various combinations of bands; and the provision by the ERTS system of computer-compatible tapes for machine processing of data. Furthermore, the resolution of ERTS imagery has been better than expected. Although there is some question as to its exact resolving power, it is safe to say objects as small as 100 meters (300 feet) in diameter have been identified. Linear features as narrow as 16 meters (50 feet) can be detected (Figure 1).

Lindgren, D. T.↗

Linking Land Use Changes to Surface Water Quality Variability in Lake Victoria: Some Insights From Remote Sensing (GC41B-1101)

Various land use changes driven by urbanization, conversion of grasslands and woodlands into farmlands, intensification of agricultural practices, deforestation, land fragmentation and degradation are taking place in Africa. In Kenya, agriculture is the main driver of land use conversions. The impacts of these land use changes are observable in land cover maps, and eventually in the hydrological systems. Reduction or change of natural vegetation cover types increases the speed of surface runoff and reduces water and nutrient retention capacities. This can lead to high nutrient inputs into lakes, resulting in eutrophication, siltation and infestation of floating aquatic vegetation. To assess if changes in land use could be contributing to increased phytoplankton blooms and sediment loads into Lake Victoria, we analyzed land use land cover data from Landsat, as well as surface chlorophyll-a and total suspended matter from MODIS-Aqua sensor.

water quality↗

Urban land use monitoring from computer-implemented processing of airborne multispectral data

Machine processing techniques were applied to multispectral data obtained from airborne scanners at an elevation of 600 meters over central Indianapolis in August, 1972. Computer analysis of these spectral data indicate that roads (two types), roof tops (three types), dense grass (two types), sparse grass (two types), trees, bare soil, and water (two types) can be accurately identified. Using computers, it is possible to determine land uses from analysis of type, size, shape, and spatial associations of earth surface images identified from multispectral data. Land use data developed through machine processing techniques can be programmed to monitor land use changes, simulate land use conditions, and provide impact statistics that are required to analyze stresses placed on spatial systems.

Todd, W. J.↗