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At least 91 records · Page 5

Information Theoretic Approaches to Rapid Discovery of Relationships in Large Climate Data Sets

Mutual information as the asymptotic Bayesian measure of independence is an excellent starting point for investigating the existence of possible relationships among climate-relevant variables in large data sets, As mutual information is a nonlinear function of of its arguments, it is not beholden to the assumption of a linear relationship between the variables in question and can reveal features missed in linear correlation analyses. However, as mutual information is symmetric in its arguments, it only has the ability to reveal the probability that two variables are related. it provides no information as to how they are related; specifically, causal interactions or a relation based on a common cause cannot be detected. For this reason we also investigate the utility of a related quantity called the transfer entropy. The transfer entropy can be written as a difference between mutual informations and has the capability to reveal whether and how the variables are causally related. The application of these information theoretic measures is rested on some familiar examples using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) to identify relation between global cloud cover and other variables, including equatorial pacific sea surface temperature (SST), over seasonal and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗

Systematic Independent Validation of Inner Heliospheric Models

This presentation is the first in a series which will provide independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. In this work we establish a set of measures to be used in validating this group of models. We use these procedures to generate a comprehensive set of results from the Wang- Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model which will be used as a baseline, or reference, against which to compare all other models. We also run a test of the validation procedures by applying them to a small set of results produced by the ENLIL Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model. In future presentations we will validate other models currently hosted by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center(CCMC), including a comprehensive validation of the ENLIL model. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is widely used to model the Solar wind, and is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth as much as four days into the future. Because it is so important to both the research and space weather forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically, and independently. In this paper we offer just such an independent and systematic validation. We report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and IMF polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests line of sight magnetograms. For this study we generated model results for monthly magnetograms from the National Solar Observatory (SOLIS), Mount Wilson Observatory and the GONG network, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2068. We compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources, performance at quiet and active times, and estimate the effect of different empirical wind speed tunings. We also consider the ability of the WSA model to identify sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model

MacNeice, P. J.↗

A Markov Decision Process Framework for Optimal Airport Reconfiguration

The airport runway configuration is defined as a combination set of runways for arrivals and departures used at a point during operation of the airport. An optimal configuration of these runways depends on a number of factors, including traffic demand, wind magnitude and direction, other adverse weather conditions, and noise restrictions, among others. Based on the current state of these factors and predictions of traffic demand and weather conditions, runway configuration changes are made and coordinated between tower controller, other air traffic control facilities, pilots, and ground personnel. Reconfigurations can be quite disruptive to airport operations; minimizing their frequency and scheduling them well in advance is essential for mitigating some of the added workload for controllers and pilots. Unfortunately, deciding on an appropriate time to change is challenging for human decision makers. Not only do multiple factors need to be evaluated, but the uncertainty in their forecasts must also be considered. Previous optimization methods, such as mixed linear integer programming, have been proposed. Although these methods can reason over a large set of variables, they do not systematically handle the uncertainty associated with weather movement, traffic demands, and other variables. In this work, we introduce a Markov Decision Process (MDP)-based decision making framework which can reason effectively over the inherent uncertainties and make optimal decisions on if/when to change the airport configuration. In a prototype implementation, we present a single runway with three aircraft and utilize knowledge of the forecasted wind speed and direction to determine whether to keep or change the current runway configuration. Our aim through this work is to present a framework for airport reconfiguration which can be scalable to additional aircraft, multiple runways, and various input parameters. This technique will optimize the airport reconfiguration procedure by providing a proactive approach, optimizing not just at the next optimal opportunity for a reconfiguration based on varying atmospheric and traffic conditions in the terminal airspace, but also anticipating future necessary reconfigurations. This will eliminate the inefficiencies of frequent changes currently associated with runway reconfiguration procedures.

runway reconfiguration↗

Evaluation of the Absolute Regional Temperature Potential

The Absolute Regional Temperature Potential (ARTP) is one of the few climate metrics that provides estimates of impacts at a sub-global scale. The ARTP presented here gives the time-dependent temperature response in four latitude bands (90-28degS, 28degS-28degN, 28-60degN and 60-90degN) as a function of emissions based on the forcing in those bands caused by the emissions. It is based on a large set of simulations performed with a single atmosphere-ocean climate model to derive regional forcing/response relationships. Here I evaluate the robustness of those relationships using the forcing/response portion of the ARTP to estimate regional temperature responses to the historic aerosol forcing in three independent climate models. These ARTP results are in good accord with the actual responses in those models. Nearly all ARTP estimates fall within +/-20%of the actual responses, though there are some exceptions for 90-28degS and the Arctic, and in the latter the ARTP may vary with forcing agent. However, for the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in particular, the +/-20% range appears to be roughly consistent with the 95% confidence interval. Land areas within these two bands respond 39-45% and 9-39% more than the latitude band as a whole. The ARTP, presented here in a slightly revised form, thus appears to provide a relatively robust estimate for the responses of large-scale latitude bands and land areas within those bands to inhomogeneous radiative forcing and thus potentially to emissions as well. Hence this metric could allow rapid evaluation of the effects of emissions policies at a finer scale than global metrics without requiring use of a full climate model.

Shindell, D. T.↗

The Geology of the Pluto System

NASA's New Horizons mission acquired a large set of images and other data making possible thorough geological analysis of landscapes in the Pluto System. Pluto and Charon exhibit strikingly different surface appearances, despite their similar densities and presumed bulk compositions. Systematic investigation, modelling and mapping revealed that much of Pluto's surface is attributed to surface-atmosphere interactions and the mobilization of volatile ices by insolation. Many mapped valley systems appear to be the consequence of glaciation involving nitrogen ice. Other geological activity requires or required long periods of internal heating, such as Pluto's extensive tectonic fabric. The convection and advection of volatile ices in Sputnik Planitia are thought to be powered by present-day radiogenic heat loss. The prominent mountains at the western margin of Sputnik Planitia, and the strange, multi-km-high mound features to the south, probably composed of H2O, are young geologically as inferred by light cratering and superposition relationships. These multi-km-high mound features might be cryo-volcanoes. Their origin, and what drove their formation so late in Solar System history, is under investigation. East of Sputnik Planitia are large fields of aligned ranks of sharp-crested ridges found only at high altitude that are apparently composed of massive deposits of CH4 ice, referred to as Bladed Terrain. New Horizons found evidence that Bladed Terrain may cover much of Pluto's low latitudes and may have originally formed there as a consequence of Pluto's very high obliquity. Currently Bladed Terrain is undergoing net erosion. This observation, along with evidence for formally more extensive nitrogen glaciation implies that Pluto undergoes significant climate evolution. The dynamic remolding of landscapes by volatile transport seen on Pluto is not unambiguously evident in the mapping of Charon. Charon does, however, display a large resurfaced plain and globally engirdling extensional tectonic network attesting to its early endogenic vigor.

Moore, J. M.↗

The attenuation of Love waves and toroidal oscillations of the earth.

An attempt has been made to invert a large set of attenuation data for Love waves and toroidal oscillations in the earth, using a recent method by Backus and Gilbert. The difficulty in finding an acceptable model of internal friction which explains the data, under the assumption that the internal friction is independent of frequency, casts doubt on the validity of this assumption. A frequency-dependent model of internal friction is presented which is in good agreement with the seismic data and with recent experimental measurements of attenuation in rocks.

Jackson, D. D.↗

Production of carbon monoxide by charged particle deposition.

Recent studies of electron energy deposition in CO2 and CO based upon a large set of electron impact cross sections are utilized to estimate the telluric CO directly produced by various charged-particle deposition mechanisms. The mechanisms considered are (1) lightning, (2) cloud coronal discharges, (3) background radioactivity, (4) natural electrostatic discharges, (5) photoelectrons in the ionosphere, (6) auroral electrons, (7) auroral protons, (8) cosmic rays, and (9) solar wind. 'Ball park' estimates of the global CO production by each of these mechanisms are given. Apart from mechanisms 1, 2, and 5, all CO production mechanisms are estimated to be small compared to artificial sources. If, as appears to be the case, the hot oxygen atoms and ions and other atomic species immediately produced by these three charged-particle deposition mechanisms react rapidly with CO2 to produce CO, these mechanisms can readily lead to CO production levels in the multimegaton-per-year range.

Green, A. E. S.↗

Study geomorphology, past and present, linear trench, tectonics relationship between Pyrenees and Alps

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 images obviously show up some large linear features trending N 80 E or N 30 E common to both Alps and Pyrenees. One of them, the Ligurian Fault, had been previously forecast by Laubscher in an interpretation of the Alps by the plate tectonic theory, but it extends westward farthest from the Alps, cutting the Pyrenees axis. These lineaments have been interpreted as reflections of deep seated wrench faults in the surficial part of the sedimentary series. A large set of such lineaments is perceptible in western Europe, such as the Guadalquivir Fault in southern Spain, Ligurian Fault, Insubrian Fault, Northern-Jura Fault, Metz Fault. Perhaps these may be interpreted as transform faults of the mid-Atlantic ridge or of a paleo-rift seated in the Rhine-Rhone graben.

Guillemot, J.↗

Comparison of some classification techniques

The so-called table look-up classification procedure and a modification of it are discussed. These and several other classification techniques are evaluated and simulation results comparing some of the techniques are displayed. Indications are that the table look-up technique is quite useful in classifying large sets of data, such as in remote sensing data analysis.

Odell, P. L.↗

TENEX SAIL

SAIL, a high level ALGOL language for the PDP-10, is extended to operate under the TENEX time sharing system without executing DEC system calls. A large set of TENEX oriented runtime routines are added to allow complete access to TENEX. The emphasis is on compatibility of programs across time sharing systems and integrity of the language.

Smith, R.↗

Electrostatic analysis of charge-coupled structures

An analysis is presented which is based upon a numerical solution of Gauss's law for the multiple dielectric semiconductor and electrode structure. The formulation resulted in a large set of equations, usually nonlinear, which were solved by an iterative scheme based upon the Gauss-Seidel method employing a relaxation parameter. Proper consideration of the nonlinearity of the space-charge in the semiconductor allowed convergent solutions which can give reasonable approximations to the channel potential profiles though not as good for estimating the space charge itself. The results of this work, which are three computer programs, are listed. None of the programs give the electric field explicitly as output data. However, when this information is desired, the programs can be expanded to include field estimations based on a polynominal fit to the potential field, or they may serve as subprograms for main programs dealing with general aspects of charge transfer.

Gassaway, J. D.↗

Determination of aerosol content in the atmosphere from LANDSAT data

The author has identified the following significant results. A large set of LANDSAT 2 data, obtained at San Diego, showed excellent linear relationships, particularly for MSS 5 and MSS 6, between the radiance over the ocean and the atmospheric aerosol content. Two other data points obtained at Adrigole, Ireland, representing a different ocean and a different ground truth instrument, showed very good agreement with the San Diego data. It appeared that the technique could be used for global monitoring of the atmospheric aerosol content over the oceans. Results obtained at several inland bodies of water showed that MSS 4, MSS 5, and MSS 6 cannot be used due to the effect of water pollution generally present. However, the LANDSAT 1 results suggested that MSS 7, which operates at longer wavelengths, was not very sensitive to water pollution, and might be useful for inland measurements of aerosol content. Use of the longer wavelength would also minimize the effects of adjacent high albedo land, since atmospheric scattering was reduced at longer wavelengths.

Griggs, M.↗

The use of computer-generated color graphic images for transient thermal analysis

Color computer graphics techniques were investigated as a means of rapidly scanning and interpreting large sets of transient heating data. The data presented were generated to support the conceptual design of a heat-sink thermal protection system (TPS) for a hypersonic research airplane. Color-coded vector and raster displays of the numerical geometry used in the heating calculations were employed to analyze skin thicknesses and surface temperatures of the heat-sink TPS under a variety of trajectory flight profiles. Both vector and raster displays proved to be effective means for rapidly identifying heat-sink mass concentrations, regions of high heating, and potentially adverse thermal gradients. The color-coded (raster) surface displays are a very efficient means for displaying surface-temperature and heating histories, and thereby the more stringent design requirements can quickly be identified. The related hardware and software developments required to implement both the vector and the raster displays for this application are also discussed.

Edwards, C. L. W.↗

A high performance porous flat-plate solar collector

A solar collector employing a porous matrix as a solar absorber and heat exchanger is presented and its application in solar air heaters is discussed. The collector is composed of a metallic matrix with a porous surface which acts as a large set of cavity radiators; cold air flows through the matrix plate and exchanges heat with the thermally stratified layers of the matrix. A steady-state thermal analysis of the collector is used to determine collector temperature distributions for the cases of an opaque surface matrix with total absorption of solar energy at the surface, and a diathermanous matrix with successive solar energy absorption at each depth. The theoretical performance of the porous flat plate collector is shown to exceed greatly that of a solid flat plate collector using air as the working medium for any given set of operational conditions. An experimental collector constructed using commercially available, low cost steel wool as the matrix has been found to have thermal efficiencies from 73 to 86%.

Lansing, F. L.↗

Microwave signatures of the natural snow cover at Weissfluhjoch

The natural snow cover on a high altitude alphine test site was monitored with a multi-frequency radiometer for more than three years. Some measurements were also made with a 10.5 GHz scatterometer. The microwave observations are supported by a large set of ground truth data. From year to year a wide variation in the development of the snowpack above and below average was observed. Typical microwave data are presented for the different snow conditions in view of the applicability as signatures for remote sensing.

Hofer, R.↗

V/STOLAND digital avionics system for XV-15 tilt rotor

A digital flight control system for the tilt rotor research aircraft provides sophisticated navigation, guidance, control, display and data acquisition capabilities for performing terminal area navigation, guidance and control research. All functions of the XV-15 V/STOLAND system were demonstrated on the NASA-ARC S-19 simulation facility under a comprehensive dynamic acceptance test. The most noteworthy accomplishments of the system are: (1) automatic configuration control of a tilt-rotor aircraft over the total operating range; (2) total hands-off landing to touchdown on various selectable straight-in glide slopes and on a flight path that includes a two-revolution helix; (3) automatic guidance along a programmed three-dimensional reference flight path; (4) navigation data for the automatic guidance computed on board, based on VOR/DME, TACAN, or MLS navid data; and (5) integration of a large set of functions in a single computer, utilizing 16k words of storage for programs and data.

Liden, S.↗

Pressure losses and heat transfer in non-circular channels with hydraulically smooth walls

The influence of channel geometry on pressure losses and heat transfer in noncircular channels with hydraulically smooth walls was studied. As a basic assumption for the description of this influence, integral geometrical criteria, selected according to experimental experience, were introduced. Using these geometrical criteria, a large set of experimental data for pressure losses and heat transfer in circular and annular channels with longitudinal fins was evaluated. In this way it as empirically proved that the criteria described channel geometry fairly well.

Malak, J.↗

Selection of actuator locations for static shape control of large space structures by heuristic integer programing

Orbiting spacecraft such as large space antennas have to maintain a highly accurate space to operate satisfactorily. Such structures require active and passive controls to mantain an accurate shape under a variety of disturbances. Methods for the optimum placement of control actuators for correcting static deformations are described. In particular, attention is focused on the case were control locations have to be selected from a large set of available sites, so that integer programing methods are called for. The effectiveness of three heuristic techniques for obtaining a near-optimal site selection is compared. In addition, efficient reanalysis techniques for the rapid assessment of control effectiveness are presented. Two examples are used to demonstrate the methods: a simple beam structure and a 55m space-truss-parabolic antenna.

Haftka, R. T.↗