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Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report Third Quarter FY-08

This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the third quarter of Fiscal Year 2008 (April - June 2008). Tasks reported on are: Peak Wind Tool for User Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS Phase II, Completion of the Edward Air Force Base (EAFB) Statistical Guidance Wind Tool, Volume Averaged Height Integ rated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR), Impact of Local Sensors, Radar Scan Strategies for the PAFB WSR-74C Replacement, VAHIRR Cost Benefit Analysis, and WRF Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base

Bauman, William↗

Objective Lightning Forecasting at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System Data

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in Florida include a probability of thunderstorm occurrence in their daily morning briefings. This information is used by personnel involved in determining the possibility of violating Launch Commit Criteria, evaluating Flight Rules for the Space Shuttle, and daily planning for ground operation activities on Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/CCAFS. Much of the current lightning probability forecast is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The forecasters requested that a lightning probability forecast tool based on statistical analysis of historical warm-season (May - September) data be developed in order to increase the objectivity of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast. The tool is a set of statistical lightning forecast equations that provide a lightning occurrence probability for the day by 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) during the warm season. This study used 15 years (1989-2003) of warm season data to develop the objective forecast equations. The local CCAFS 1000 UTC sounding was used to calculate stability parameters for equation predictors. The Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The CGLSS data have been found to be more reliable indicators of lightning in the area than surface observations through local informal analyses. This work was based on the results from two earlier research projects. Everitt (1999) used surface observations and rawinsonde data to develop logistic regression equations that forecast the daily thunderstorm probability at CCAFS. The Everitt (1999) equations showed an improvement in skill over the Neumann-Pfeffer thunderstorm index (Neumann 1971), which uses multiple linear regression, and also persistence and climatology forecasts. Lericos et al. (2002) developed lightning distributions over the Florida peninsula based on specific flow regimes. The flow regimes were inferred from the average wind direction in the 1000-700 mb layer at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), Florida, and the lightning data were from the National Lightning Detection Network. The results suggested that the daily flow regime may be an important predictor of lightning occurrence on KSC/CCAFS.

Lambert, Winifred↗

An Analysis of Peak Wind Speed Data from Collocated Mechanical and Ultrasonic Anemometers

This study compared peak wind speeds reported by mechanical and ultrasonic anemometers at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (CCAFS/KSC) on the east central coast of Florida and Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) on the central coast of California. Launch Weather Officers, forecasters, and Range Safety analysts need to understand the performance of wind sensors at CCAFS/KSC and VAFB for weather warnings, watches, advisories, special ground processing operations, launch pad exposure forecasts, user Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) forecasts and evaluations, and toxic dispersion support. The legacy CCAFS/KSC and VAFB weather tower wind instruments are being changed from propeller-and-vane (CCAFS/KSC) and cup-and-vane (VAFB) sensors to ultrasonic sensors under the Range Standardization and Automation (RSA) program. Mechanical and ultrasonic wind measuring techniques are known to cause differences in the statistics of peak wind speed as shown in previous studies. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and the 30th Weather Squadron (30 WS) requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to compare data between the RSA ultrasonic and legacy mechanical sensors to determine if there are significant differences. Note that the instruments were sited outdoors under naturally varying conditions and that this comparison was not designed to verify either technology. Approximately 3 weeks of mechanical and ultrasonic wind data from each range from May and June 2005 were used in this study. The CCAFS/KSC data spanned the full diurnal cycle, while the VAFB data were confined to 1000-1600 local time. The sample of 1-minute data from numerous levels on five different towers on each range totaled more than 500,000 minutes of data (482,979 minutes of data after quality control). The ten towers were instrumented at several levels, ranging from 12 ft to 492 ft above ground level. The ultrasonic sensors were collocated at the same vertical levels as the mechanical sensors and typically within 15 ft horizontally of each another. Data from a total of 53 RSA ultrasonic sensors, collocated with mechanical sensors were compared. The 1- minute average wind speed/direction and the 1-second peak wind speed/direction were compared.

Short, David A.↗

Surface Inspection Tool for Optical Detection of Surface Defects

The Space Shuttle Orbiter windows were damaged both by micrometeor impacts and by handling, and required careful inspection before they could be reused. The launch commit criteria required that no defect be deeper than a critical depth. The shuttle program used a refocus microscope to perform a quick pass/fail determination, and then followed up with mold impressions to better quantify any defect. However, the refocus microscope is slow and tedious to use due to its limited field of view, only focusing on one small area of glass at a time. Additionally, the unit is bulky and unable to be used in areas with tight access, such as defects near the window frame or on the glass inside the Orbiter due to interference with the dashboard. The surface inspection tool is a low-profile handheld instrument that provides two digital video images on a computer for monitoring surface defects. The first image is a wide-angle view to assist the user in locating defects. The second provides an enlarged view of a defect centered in the window of the first image. The focus is adjustable for each of the images. However, the enlarged view was designed to have a focal plane with a short depth. This allows the user to get a feel for the depth of different parts of the defect under inspection as the focus control is varied. A light source is also provided to illuminate the defect, precluding the need for separate lighting tools. The software provides many controls to adjust image quality, along with the ability to zoom digitally the images and to capture and store them for later processing.

Nurge, Mark↗

Tower Mesonetwork Climatology and Interactive Display Tool

Forecasters at the 45th Weather Squadron and Spaceflight Meteorology Group use data from the tower network over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to evaluate Launch Commit Criteria, and issue and verify forecasts for ground operations. Systematic biases in these parameters could adversely affect an analysis, forecast, or verification. Also, substantial geographical variations in temperature and wind speed can occur under specific wind directions. To address these concerns, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a climatology of temperatures and winds from the tower network, and identified the geographical variation and significant tower biases. The mesoclimate is largely driven by the complex land-water interfaces across KSC/CCAFS. Towers with close proximity to water typically had much warmer nocturnal temperatures and higher wind speeds throughout the year. The strongest nocturnal wind speeds occurred from October to March whereas the strongest mean daytime wind speeds occurred from February to May. These results of this project can be viewed by forecasters through an interactive graphical user interface developed by the AMU. The web-based interface includes graphical and map displays of mean, standard deviation, bias, and data availability for any combination of towers, variables, months, hours, and wind directions.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Dynamic Gas Flow Effects on the ESD of Aerospace Vehicle Surfaces

The purpose of this work is to develop a dynamic version of Paschen's Law that takes into account the flow of ambient gas past aerospace vehicle surfaces. However, the classic Paschen's Law does not take into account the flow of gas of an aerospace vehicle, whose surfaces may be triboelectrically charged by dust or ice crystal impingement, traversing the atmosphere. The basic hypothesis of this work is that the number of electron-ion pairs created per unit distance by the electric field between the electrodes is mitigated by the electron-ion pairs removed per unit distance by the flow of gas. The revised Paschen equation must be a function of the mean velocity, v(sub xm), of the ambient gas and reduces to the classical version of Paschen's law when the gas mean velocity, v(sub xm) = 0. New formulations of Paschen's Law, taking into account Mach number and dynamic pressure, derived by the authors, will be discussed. These equations will be evaluated by wind tunnel experimentation later this year. Based on the results of this work, it is hoped that the safety of aerospace vehicles will be enhanced with a redefinition of electrostatic launch commit criteria. It is also possible that new products, such as new anti-static coatings, may be formulated from this data.

Paschens Law↗

Dynamic Gas Flow Effects on the ESD of Aerospace Vehicle Surfaces

The purpose of this work is to develop a dynamic version of Paschen's Law that takes into account the flow of ambient gas past aerospace vehicle surfaces. However, the classic Paschen's Law does not take into account the flow of gas of an aerospace vehicle, whose surfaces may be triboelectrically charged by dust or ice crystal impingement, traversing the atmosphere. The basic hypothesis of this work is that the number of electron-ion pairs created per unit distance by the electric field between the electrodes is mitigated by the electron-ion pairs removed per unit distance by the flow of gas. The revised Paschen equation must be a function of the mean velocity, v(sub xm), of the ambient gas and reduces to the classical version of Paschen's law when the gas mean velocity, v(sub xm) = 0. New formulations of Paschen's Law, taking into account Mach number and dynamic pressure, derived by the authors, will be discussed. These equations will be evaluated by wind tunnel experimentation later this year. Based on the results of this work, it is hoped that the safety of aerospace vehicles will be enhanced with a redefinition of electrostatic launch commit criteria. It is also possible that new products, such as new anti-static coatings, may be formulated from this data.

Electrostatic Discharge↗

Revision of Paschen's Law Relating to the ESD of Aerospace Vehicle Surfaces

The purpose of this work is to develop a version of Paschen's law that takes into account the flow of ambient gas past electrode surfaces. Paschen's law does not consider the flow of gas past an aerospace vehicle whose surfaces may be triboelectrically charged by dust or ice crystal impingement while traversing the atmosphere. The basic hypothesis of this work is that the number of electron-ion pairs created per unit distance between electrode surfaces is mitigated by the electron-ion pairs removed per unit distance by the flow of gas. The revised theoretical model must be a function of the mean velocity vxm of the ambient gas and reduce to Paschen's law when the mean velocity is zero. A new theoretical formulation of Paschen's law, taking into account the Mach number and compressible dynamic pressure, derived by the authors, will be discussed. This equation has been evaluated by wind tunnel experimentation. Initial data of the baseline wind tunnel experiments show results consistent with the hypothesis. This work may enhance the safety of aerospace vehicles through a redefinition of electrostatic launch commit criteria. It is also possible for new products, such as antistatic coatings, to be formulated based on this data.

electrostatic↗

Revision of Paschen's Law Relating to the ESD of Aerospace Vehicle Surfaces

The purpose of this work is to develop a version of Paschens law that takes into account the flow of ambient gas past electrode surfaces. Paschens law does not consider the flow of gas past an aerospace vehicle whose surfaces may be triboelectrically charged by dust or ice crystal impingement while traversing the atmosphere. The basic hypothesis of this work is that the number of electron-ion pairs created per unit distance between electrode surfaces is mitigated by the electron-ion pairs removed per unit distance by the flow of gas. The revised theoretical model must be a function of the mean velocity vxm of the ambient gas and reduce to Paschens law when the mean velocity is zero. A new theoretical formulation of Paschens law, taking into account the Mach number and compressible dynamic pressure, derived by the authors, will be discussed. This equation has been evaluated by wind tunnel experimentation. Initial data of the baseline wind tunnel experiments show results consistent with the hypothesis. This work may enhance the safety of aerospace vehicles through a redefinition of electrostatic launch commit criteria. It is also possible for new products, such as antistatic coatings, to be formulated based on this data.

discharge↗

CAIDA CUI Confirmation for OMRS & LCC SOCRRATES Emulator and iSEE Upgrade, Operations, & Analysis

This internship has focused on providing solutions for the Customer Avionics Interface Development and Analysis (CAIDA) subsystem. The main emulator that has been used during this internship is the Software-Only CEV (Crew Exploration Vehicle) Risk Reduction Analysis and Test Engineering Simulator (SOCRRATES). This emulator uses advanced math and physics methods to simulate specific points in a mission, such as ascent, entry, and orbit. Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) must ensure that all KSC based ground systems can be properly integrated with the flight vehicle software, therefore, the Modeling and Simulation Branch (NE-XM) of the KSC (Kennedy Space Center) Engineering Directorate supports a virtual environment that simulates the interface between ground systems and the flight vehicle. A primary component in assuring that is knowing whether the emulators have incorporated the correct CUIs (Compact Unique Identifiers) into their system, as well as understanding both the static and dynamic responses of the individual CUIs. Also, an effort for verification of Operational Maintenance Requirements Specifications (OMRS) and Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) that are supported by SOCRRATES for the Orion Crew Module were part of the project tasks this semester. This internship also focused on comparing two different simulation Commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) products and to determine whether or not a COTS package was a viable replacement for the current software that the iSEE (Immersive Simulations and Engineering Environment) lab uses. Upon research and testing, I found that this software was not feasible for the lab. It could not easily load CAD (Computer-Aided Design) or CREO models, give live feedback while the user is in the environment, and was not compatible with a virtual reality headset, all of which are necessary for the lab.

Bundy, Caleb↗

Rationales for the Lightning Flight-Commit Criteria

Since natural and artificially-initiated (or "triggered") lightning are demonstrated hazards to the launch of space vehicles, the American space program has responded by establishing a set of Lightning Flight Commit Criteria (LFCC), also known as Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC), and associated Definitions to mitigate the risk. The LLCC apply to all Federal Government ranges and similar LFCC have been adopted by the Federal Aviation Administration for application at state-operated and private spaceports. The LLCC and Definitions have been developed, reviewed, and approved over the years of the American space program, progressing from relatively simple rules in the mid-twentieth century (that were inadequate) to a complex suite for launch operations in the early 21st century. During this evolutionary process, a "Lightning Advisory Panel (LAP)" of top American scientists in the field of atmospheric electricity was established to guide it. Details of this process are provided in a companion document entitled "A History of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and the Lightning Advisory Panel for America s Space program" which is available as NASA Special Publication 2010-216283. As new knowledge and additional operational experience have been gained, the LFCC/LLCC have been updated to preserve or increase their safety and to increase launch availability. All launches of both manned and unmanned vehicles at all Federal Government ranges now use the same rules. This simplifies their application and minimizes the cost of the weather infrastructure to support them. Vehicle operators and Range safety personnel have requested that the LAP provide a detailed written rationale for each of the LFCC so that they may better understand and appreciate the scientific and operational justifications for them. This document provides the requested rationales

Willett, John C.↗