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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2012

Disk-loaded RF waveguide matching techniques applied to silicon woodpile accelerator

Silicon woodpile photonic crystal provides a three-dimensional dielectric waveguide system for high-gradient laser driven acceleration. The woodpile waveguide is periodically loaded in the longitudinal direction; therefore simple cross-sectional mode profile matching is not sufficient to launch the accelerating mode appropriately and will result in significant scattering loss. Hinted by the common nature of longitudinal periodicity between disk-loaded waveguide and woodpile waveguide, several coupler design schemes developed for multi-cell RF cavity are implemented in the woodpile accelerator design. Among them there are the travelling-wave match method based on S-matrix, the periodic VSWR method, and the TE-to-TM coupling iris design. This paper presents design procedures and simulation results using these methods. According to simulations, nearly 100% power transmission between SOI and woodpile waveguides with a travelling-wave match is achieved with a specially designed mode-launching coupler. Constructed by silicon rods extruding into the defect waveguide, the coupling iris provides necessary transition from TE mode to TM accelerating mode, also with negligible coupling loss.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Studies of the outer-off-midplane lower hybrid wave launch scenario for plasma start-up on the TST-2 spherical tokamak

Abstract Establishment of an efficient central solenoid (CS) free tokamak plasma start-up method may lead to an economical fusion reactor. CS-free start-up using lower hybrid (LH) waves has been studied on the TST-2 spherical tokamak. Plasma current of about a quarter of CS-driven discharges has been obtained fully non-inductively using the outer-midplane and top LH launchers. Recently, an outer-off-midplane LH launcher was developed to achieve higher plasma current by optimizing for core absorption and minimal fast electron losses. Using the (outer-)off-midplane launcher, fully non-inductive plasma current start-up up to about 8 kA was achieved. Coupled ray-tracing and Fokker–Planck simulation was performed on equilibria reconstructed with an extended MHD model. It was found that the experimentally observed plasma current was in reasonable agreement with the numerical simulation. The simulation predicted appreciable orbit losses for the off-midplane launcher driven discharge at the present parameters, which was consistent with the experimentally observed x-ray radiation characteristics. The simulation showed that the current density was saturated for the present off-midplane launcher discharges and higher density and higher LH power was necessary to achieve higher plasma current.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Free-Radical Prompted Barrierless Gas-Phase Synthesis of Pentacene

A representative, low-temperature gas-phase reaction mechanism synthesizing polyacenes via ring annulation exemplified by the formation of pentacene (C 22 H 14 ) along with its benzo[ a ]tetracene isomer (C 22 H 14 ) is unraveled by probing the elementary reaction of the 2-tetracenyl radical (C 18 H 11 . ) with vinylacetylene (C 4 H 4 ). The pathway to pentacene—a prototype polyacene and a fundamental molecular building block in graphenes, fullerenes, and carbon nanotubes—is facilitated by a barrierless, vinylacetylene mediated gas-phase process thus disputing conventional hypotheses that synthesis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) solely proceeds at elevated temperatures. This low-temperature pathway can launch isomer-selective routes to aromatic structures through submerged reaction barriers, resonantly stabilized free-radical intermediates, and methodical ring annulation in deep space eventually changing our perception about the chemistry of carbon in our universe.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) for Bio Imaging Research & Development Consortium between State University of New York at Stony Brook (SBU) and Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL)

SBU is launching an initiative in bioimaging, with the goal of creating an integrated approach to a wide spectrum of imaging methods and technologies and their continued development and translation, primarily but not exclusively to biomedical applications. BNL has a long tradition and record of pioneering accomplishments in positron emission tomographic (PET) imaging and associated radiotracer and instrumentation development, and in technologies generally relevant to bioimaging.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Pulsed Joining Of Body-In-White Components

The objective of this project was to develop cost efficient high quality pulsed welding (PW) technology for joining 6xxx Aluminum and High Strength Steel (with tensile strength above 580MPa) components enabling broad usage of hydroformed parts and leading to substantial weight reduction of cars and trucks to reduce US demand on petroleum, lower carbon emissions and energy expenditures. In general, pulsed welding is a form of impact welding where two dissimilar metal pieces are joined by accelerating one to velocities exceeding 300m/s at which point the first piece strikes the second and forms a weld. In this work, two methods were used to accelerate the flyer material: Electro-Magnetic (EM) pulse and Electro-Hydraulic (EH) pulse launching. The advantage of pulsed welding techniques is that welds can be formed between two materials that cannot otherwise be welded: high strength aluminum and high strength steel. The technical objectives of the project included: 1) developing cost affordable production feasible tooling design for PW of 6xxx aluminum to High Strength steel with strengths above 580MPa; 2) demonstrating that fabricated joints can exceed the required service load strength initially at the coupon level and then at the component level; 3) developing fundamental understanding of the mechanisms of joint formation and conditions leading to formation of high quality PW joint; and 4) creating a numerical model predicting the tooling and electric discharge parameters necessary for the joint formation and that satisfy the targeted strength parameters. The project successfully developed: 1) EM and EH pulsed welds between high strength aluminum with tensile strengths exceeding 240MPa and steels exceeding 580MPa; 2) pulsed welds of extrusions with strengths exceeding project requirements; 3) EM and EH flyer launch models and 4) weld interface formation models. However, the grant holder, Ford Motor Company, could see no path to commercialization and the work was discontinued at the end of the first budget period.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Concept of Operations: National Technology Test Bed Network for Water Resource Recovery

There is an urgency to advancing wastewater technologies due to aging water infrastructure and emerging regulations. A crosscutting working group proposes a conceptual design for a test bed network to understand and evaluate wastewater technologies to drive acceptance and deployment of new technologies to enhance performance. The working group includes contributors from the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. National Science Foundation, and the Water Research Foundation (formerly known as the Water Environment & Reuse Foundation). Upgrading today's aging wastewater treatment infrastructure to a new generation of water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs) requires the development and deployment of innovative technologies. The path to technology adoption depends on expensive, time consuming, and often repetitive cycles of testing and validation. Existing water resource recovery technology testing facilities (e.g., test beds) are underutilized and cannot, by themselves, broaden technology uptake. It has been proposed that technology adoption could be accelerated by a network linking these test facilities with innovators, manufacturers, utilities, regulators, policymakers, and educators. This document proposes a structure for a National Test bed Network (TBN) for water resource recovery. The concepts for its operation are explored herein. This document identifies drivers to launch a TBN and critical needs for successful implementation of the network. An important driver to technology implementation at WRRFs is the relationship between local utilities and state regulators. The TBN could provide access to validated performance data and facilitate deployment. To link the stakeholders and accelerate deployment, the TBN will require standards for methods, data quality, data management, and data security. These standards will enable validation of performance and will expand the “toolbox” that utilities and regulators could consider. Design, set up, and launch of this toolbox is beyond the scope of operations of utilities and regulators and will likely require external support to achieve full operation. Herein, a pathway is proposed to achieve this full operation. This document defines the function of a WRRF TBN. It also proposes a structure for the TBN to achieve its stated goals and mission. Finally, this document summarizes findings from several sources, including a series of workshops about the TBN concept, operators of test beds in ancillary industries, and discussions with regulators and permitting agencies. A description of this work was published in the peer-reviewed literature (Mihelcic 2017).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

A New Method for Production of the Sr-82 Generator Radionuclide and Other Medical Radionuclides

A cyclotron (C-80) designed to produce protons with an energy of 40–80 MeV and beam intensity of 100–200 μA has been launched at the Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute, National Research Center Kurchatov Institute. The main task of C-80 is the production of a wide range of medical radionuclides for diagnosis and therapy. A complex named Radioactive Isotopes on the C-80 Cyclotron (RIC-80) and intended to function on the C-80 beam was developed for this purpose. A brief description of the RIC-80 complex is given, and the results of the use of new methods and studies of target devices for the production of the generator radioisotope {sup 82}Sr; {sup 223}Ra, {sup 224}Ra, and {sup 225}Ac radioisotopes that undergo alpha-decay; {sup 67}Cu; and other medical radionuclides are presented. The use of a mass separator in the “on-line” mode to obtain ion beams of high-purity radioisotopes is a distinctive feature of the complex used in the project, and it is especially important for medical applications.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-throughput ab initio reaction mechanism exploration in the cloud with automated multi-reference validation

Quantum chemical calculations on atomistic systems have evolved into a standard approach to studying molecular matter. These calculations often involve a significant amount of manual input and expertise, although most of this effort could be automated, which would alleviate the need for expertise in software and hardware accessibility. Here, we present the AutoRXN workflow, an automated workflow for exploratory high-throughput electronic structure calculations of molecular systems, in which (i) density functional theory methods are exploited to deliver minimum and transition-state structures and corresponding energies and properties, (ii) coupled cluster calculations are then launched for optimized structures to provide more accurate energy and property estimates, and (iii) multi-reference diagnostics are evaluated to back check the coupled cluster results and subject them to automated multi-configurational calculations for potential multi-configurational cases. All calculations are carried out in a cloud environment and support massive computational campaigns. Key features of all components of the AutoRXN workflow are autonomy, stability, and minimum operator interference. We highlight the AutoRXN workflow with the example of an autonomous reaction mechanism exploration of the mode of action of a homogeneous catalyst for the asymmetric reduction of ketones.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Controlling for Survey Effort Is Worth the Effort: Comparing Bottlenose Dolphin ( Tursiops truncatus ) Habitat Use Between Standardized and Opportunistic Photographic-Identification Surveys

Although opportunistic data collected from wildlife ecotours can provide useful information on marine mammal distribution and behavior, concerns exist about whether resultant analyses have diminished accuracy due to spatial bias. To address these concerns, this study compared common bottlenose dolphin ( Tursiops truncatus ) habitat use results derived from standardized boat-based photographic-identification surveys and opportunistic photographic-identification surveys conducted during wildlife ecotours in Roanoke Sound, North Carolina. The main objectives of this study were to (1) identify areas of importance to dolphins, (2) identify activities (feed, mill, social, and travel) most often observed in these areas, and (3) determine the consistency of habitat use results between standardized and opportunistic surveys. Standardized survey hot spots for feeding and travel were located in southern Roanoke Sound according to the hot spot (Getis-Ord Gi*) spatial statistic. Conversely, opportunistic survey hot spots for feeding and travel were detected in central Roanoke Sound near the wildlife ecotour launch site. Opportunistic survey effort was concentrated around the ecotour launch site which introduced spatial bias by overestimating dolphin density in this area. These hot spot location differences between survey methods indicate that opportunistic survey results are affected by spatial bias which can lead to inaccurate conclusions about dolphin habitat use. Hot spot results of standardized data without survey effort supported the conclusion that spatial bias affected opportunistic habitat use results. Furthermore this study provides a direct comparison of standardized and opportunistic datasets and demonstrates the importance of controlling for survey effort when examining marine mammal distribution and habitat use.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

MEASURING THE REDSHIFT DEPENDENCE OF THE COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND MONOPOLE TEMPERATURE WITH PLANCK DATA

We study the capability of Planck data to constrain deviations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) blackbody temperature from adiabatic evolution using the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich anisotropy induced by clusters of galaxies. We consider two types of data sets depending on how the cosmological signal is removed: using a CMB template or using the 217 GHz map. We apply two different statistical estimators, based on the ratio of temperature anisotropies at two different frequencies and on a fit to the spectral variation of the cluster signal with frequency. The ratio method is biased if CMB residuals with amplitude {approx}1 {mu}K or larger are present in the data, while residuals are not so critical for the fit method. To test for systematics, we construct a template from clusters drawn from a hydro-simulation included in the pre-launch Planck Sky Model. We demonstrate that, using a proprietary catalog of X-ray-selected clusters with measured redshifts, electron densities, and X-ray temperatures, we can constrain deviations of adiabatic evolution, measured by the parameter {alpha} in the redshift scaling T(z) = T{sub 0}(1 + z){sup 1-{alpha}}, with an accuracy of {sigma}{sub {alpha}} = 0.011 in the most optimal case and with {sigma}{sub {alpha}} = 0.018 for a less optimal case. These results represent a factor of 2-3 improvement over similar measurements carried out using quasar spectral lines and a factor 6-20 with respect to earlier results using smaller cluster samples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Technical Report on Subsurface Monitoring of the Brady Hot Spring Geothermal Site, Nevada, based upon Full Waveform Inversion

Abilities to accurately characterize the subsurface in a geothermal setting is key to assess and support production. An important element of geothermal reservoir monitoring is also the ability to investigate fluid transport within fracture network. This report focuses on improving subsurface imaging and monitoring in geothermal settings using full waveform inversion based on the adjoint method and time-lapse imaging. To assess our method, we rely on a dense seismic dataset collected in 2016 at the Brady Hot Springs geothermal site in Nevada for the DOE-funded project Poroelastic Tomography by Adjoint Inverse Modeling of Data from Seismology, Geodesy, and Hydrology. This dataset captures subsurface changes across four stages of geothermal power plant operations, which involve varying rates of fluid injection and extraction. Two velocity models were previously derived from this dataset using different methods: one based on travel times and another on sweep interferometry. Our first step is to refine these models using adjoint tomography, which has been applied successfully at global and regional-scales but is less common at the reservoir-scale. Two approaches are then explored for time-lapse analysis: directly comparing refined tomographic models from different stages or backpropagating waveform differences relative to a baseline tomographic model. The main take away is that both approaches highlight similar reservoir behaviors, but the latter approach is more computationally effective in capturing small-scale changes in subsurface properties. For this work, we leverage the use of Salvus (www.mondaic.com), an end-to-end seismic imaging solution, relying on the spectral element method to compute forward and adjoint simulations, and developed by Mondaic Ltd. It includes integrated workflow management that handles waveform and metadata, launches simulations, computes waveform misfits and adjoint sources, and iterates for model updates by nonlinear optimization.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Implementation of load resilient ion cyclotron resonant frequency (ICRF) systems to couple high levels of ICRF power to ELMy H-mode plasmas in JET

The paper summarizes the continuous developments made to the ion cyclotron resonant frequency (ICRF) system at JET in order to improve the reliability of the power coupled to plasma. It details the changes and improvements made to the system so that more power is coupled during ELMy plasmas as well as increasing the power density to demonstrate reliable operation in the range of the requirements for ITER. Results obtained using the conventional matching (stubs and trombones) system, 3 dB couplers and the conjugate-T scheme with variable matching elements outside the wave launching structure (external conjugate-T) and inside the wave launching structure (ITER-like antenna) are described. The presence of the three different approaches to load resilient ICRF systems at JET creates a unique opportunity to compare these methods under very similar plasma conditions and to assess the results of ICRF power delivery to ELMy plasmas, an important issue for ITER. The impact of the availability of increased levels of reliable ICRF power on plasma physics studies in JET is illustrated.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating growth to detonation in vapor-deposited hexanitrostilbene and pentaerythritol tetranitrate films using high-throughput methods

In this work, a high-throughput experimental setup was used to characterize initiation threshold and growth to detonation in the explosives hexanitrostilbene (HNS) and pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN). The experiment sequentially launched an array of laser-driven flyers to shock samples arranged in a 96-well microplate geometry, with photonic Doppler velocimetry diagnostics to characterize flyer velocity and particle velocity at the explosive–substrate interface. Vapor-deposited films of HNS and PETN were used to provide numerous samples with various thicknesses, enabling characterization of the evolution of growth to detonation. One-dimensional hydrocode simulations were performed with reactions disabled to illustrate where the experimental data deviate from the predicted inert response. Prompt initiation was observed in 144 μm thick HNS films at flyer velocities near 3000 m/s and in 125 μm thick PETN films at flyer velocities near 2400 m/s. This experimental setup enables rapid quantification of the growth of reactions in explosive materials that can reach detonation at sub-millimeter length scales. These data can subsequently be used for parameterizing reactive burn models in hydrocode simulations, as discussed in Paper II [D. E. Kittell, R. Knepper, and A. S. Tappan, J. Appl. Phys. 131, 154902 (2022)].

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparing the shock sensitivity of insensitive energetic materials

We present a tabletop method to study the shock sensitivity of plastic-bonded explosives that are considered shock insensitive using high dynamic range optical emission spectroscopy with laser-launched km/s flyer plate impacts (2, 3, and 4 km/s), which measures the spectral radiance (the emission spectrum vs a calibrated intensity standard) every 0.8 ns in the nanosecond and microsecond regimes. The explosives were TATB (1,3,5 trinitro, 2,4,6 triamino benzene), FOX-7 (1,1-diamino-2,2-dinitroethylene), LLM-105 (2,6-diamino-3,5-dinitropyrazine-1-oxide), and NTO (nitrotriazolone), all with 20% Sylgard 182 binder. Time resolving emission from shocked explosives produces a unique fingerprint at each shock pressure, and the emission temporal profile can be used to understand each material's shock response and the underlying mechanisms within the framework of the well-known shock ignition and growth models. Ignition was characterized by the emission intensity during nanosecond hot spot ignition. The growth process, which occurs after the shock has unloaded, was characterized by the time derivative of microsecond emission intensity. Singular-value decomposition was used to determine a characteristic spectral radiance over the entire time range, and this radiance was fit to a graybody model to determine a characteristic temperature Tc. Even though these insensitive explosives have similar shock sensitivities, our method can clearly distinguish their shock response. FOX-7 and NTO were the most sensitive, with FOX-7 having the greatest shock ignition sensitivity, growth rate, and Tc. LLM-105 was much less sensitive than FOX-7 and NTO, and TATB consistently showed the lowest sensitivity by any measure.

Akhtar, Meysam (ORCID:0000000243897837)↗
DOE OSTI2019

MPI jobs within MPI jobs: A practical way of enabling task-level fault-tolerance in HPC workflows

While the use of workflows for HPC is growing, MPI interoperability remains a challenge for workflow management systems. The MPI standard and/or its implementations provide a number of ways to build multiple-programs-multiple-data (MPMD) applications. These methods present limitations related to fault tolerance, and are not easy to use. In this paper, we advocate for a novel MPI_Comm_launch function acting as the parallel counterpart of a system(3) call. MPI_Comm_launch allows a child MPI application to be launched inside the resources originally held by processes of a parent MPI application. Two important aspects of MPI_Comm_launch is that it pauses the calling process, and runs the child processes on the parent’s CPU cores, but in an isolated manner with respect to memory. This function makes it easier to build MPMD applications with well-decoupled subtasks. We show how this feature can provide better flexibility and better fault tolerance in ensemble simulations and HPC workflows. Here, we report results showing 2x throughput improvement for application workflows with faults, and scaling results for challenging workloads up to 256 nodes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2011

Macron Formed Liner Compression as a Practical Method for Enabling Magneto-Inertial Fusion

The entry of fusion as a viable, competitive source of power has been stymied by the challenge of finding an economical way to provide for the confinement and heating of the plasma fuel. The main impediment for current nuclear fusion concepts is the complexity and large mass associated with the confinement systems. To take advantage of the smaller scale, higher density regime of magnetic fusion, an efficient method for achieving the compressional heating required to reach fusion gain conditions must be found. The very compact, high energy density plasmoid commonly referred to as a Field Reversed Configuration (FRC) provides for an ideal target for this purpose. To make fusion with the FRC practical, an efficient method for repetitively compressing the FRC to fusion gain conditions is required. A novel approach to be explored in this endeavor is to remotely launch a converging array of small macro-particles (macrons) that merge and form a more massive liner inside the reactor which then radially compresses and heats the FRC plasmoid to fusion conditions. The closed magnetic field in the target FRC plasmoid suppresses the thermal transport to the confining liner significantly lowering the imploding power needed to compress the target. With the momentum flux being delivered by an assemblage of low mass, but high velocity macrons, many of the difficulties encountered with the liner implosion power technology are eliminated. The undertaking to be described in this proposal is to evaluate the feasibility achieving fusion conditions from this simple and low cost approach to fusion. During phase I the design and testing of the key components for the creation of the macron formed liner have been successfully carried out. Detailed numerical calculations of the merging, formation and radial implosion of the Macron Formed Liner (MFL) were also performed. The phase II effort will focus on an experimental demonstration of the macron launcher at full power, and the demonstration of megagauss magnetic field compression by a small array of full scale macrons. In addition the physics of the compression of an FRC to fusion conditions will be undertaken with a smaller scale MFL. The timescale for testing will be rapidly accelerated by taking advantage of other facilities at MSNW where the target FRC will be created and translated inside the MFL just prior to implosion of the MFL. Experimental success would establish the concept at the proof of principle level and the following phase III effort would focus on the full development of the concept into a fusion gain device. Successful operation would lead to several benefits in various fields. It would have application to high energy density physics, as well as nuclear waste transmutation and alternate fission fuel cycles. The smaller scale device could find immediate application as an intense source of neutrons for diagnostic imaging and non-invasive object interrogation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Commissioning of Robotic Inspection and Automated Analysis System for Assay of Gas Diffusion Piping - 19500

Robotic, in-pipe, nondestructive assay (NDA) is a revolutionary and important means for measuring, analyzing, and reporting radioactive holdup deposits in enrichment piping. This innovation promises vast advantages for efficiency, safety, and cost savings. Payoff, however, lies in utilization much more than innovation. Crossing that threshold from a technical capability to an everyday tool occurs only after rigorous commissioning, adoption, and infusion. This must meet the highest standard, and there can be no compromise. Certification of a new NDA technology must meet the highest standards for quality, safety, and efficacy. Prior to this work, there was no precedent of procedure and method for certification of a robotic methodology for this purpose. The best of robotics had not certified NDA. The best of NDA had not certified robotics. Hence, a great deal of discovery, resourcefulness, and collaboration contributed to this success. This paper chronicles the first-of-kind chartering, co-development, testing, documentation, and site integration that certified this trailblazing in-pipe, robotic NDA. Commissioning had to demonstrate and certify end-to-end NDA automation from robot traversal to computer analysis to report generation of contaminated process piping at the Portsmouth, Ohio gaseous diffusion facility. This was a rigorous campaign of tests, evaluations, and documentation. Highlights included multiple tests in four elevated pipes exercised the gamut of NDA and robotic capabilities. Each of the four test pipes presented a unique loading of U-235. The tests demonstrated operations in both 30- inch and 42-inch diameter pipes with varying lengths and terminated by a variety of valves and fittings. Tests in a fifth pipe at floor level demonstrated deployment and applicability for pipes at this ground height and robot recognition of another fitting type. All operations, calibration, deployment, auto-reporting, and analysis were handled by Portsmouth site personnel. These tests concluded a series of component-level acceptance tests which certified all constituent technologies and operational features. Test metrics included comparison of reported to ground truth results and assessment of data quality from quality assurance and replicate measurement comparison. Beyond the radiometry associated with any NDA method, this unique commissioning path exercised and evaluated all the robotic features that are intrinsic to automation. These include odometry, geometric modeling, autonomy, remote launch and recovery, and end-to-end data flow. Each of these required verification and certification. These evaluations were first-of-kind for the decommissioning community, requiring innovation and resourcefulness in their own right. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

Long-term nitrogen dioxide exposure assessment using back-extrapolation of satellite-based land-use regression models for Australia

Highlights: • We assessed how well a year-2006 satellite-based LUR model captures historical NO{sub 2}. • We used three methods to estimate annual mean NO{sub 2} during 1990–2005. • We measured their performance using standard LUR validation techniques. • Back-extrapolated 2006 levels captured up to 76% of spatial variability (90–05). Assessing historical exposure to air pollution in epidemiological studies is often problematic because of limited spatial and temporal measurement coverage. Several methods for modelling historical exposures have been described, including land-use regression (LUR). Satellite-based LUR is a recent technique that seeks to improve predictive ability and spatial coverage of traditional LUR models by using satellite observations of pollutants as inputs to LUR. Few studies have explored its validity for assessing historical exposures, reflecting the absence of historical observations from popular satellite platforms like Aura (launched mid-2004). We investigated whether contemporary satellite-based LUR models for Australia, developed longitudinally for 2006–2011, could capture nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) concentrations during 1990–2005 at 89 sites around the country. We assessed three methods to back-extrapolate year-2006 NO{sub 2} predictions: (1) ‘do nothing’ (i.e., use the year-2006 estimates directly, for prior years); (2) change the independent variable ‘year’ in our LUR models to match the years of interest (i.e., assume a linear trend prior to year-2006, following national average patterns in 2006–2011), and; (3) adjust year-2006 predictions using selected historical measurements. We evaluated prediction error and bias, and the correlation and absolute agreement of measurements and predictions using R{sup 2} and mean-square error R{sup 2} (MSE-R{sup 2}), respectively. We found that changing the year variable led to best performance; predictions captured between 41% (1991; MSE-R{sup 2} = 31%) and 80% (2003; MSE-R{sup 2} = 78%) of spatial variability in NO{sub 2} in a given year, and 76% (MSE-R{sup 2} = 72%) averaged over 1990–2005. We conclude that simple methods for back-extrapolating prior to year-2006 yield valid historical NO{sub 2} estimates for Australia during 1990–2005. These results suggest that for the time scales considered here, satellite-based LUR has a potential role to play in long-term exposure assessment, even in the absence of historical predictor data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗