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DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 1: Design of ensemble weather forecasts using spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. Simulating low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1000–10 000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part 1, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on spherical Fourier neural operators (SFNOs), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest-growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. With large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states during the rollout, and the ML ensemble passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar extreme forecast indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating. These diagnostics ensure that the ensemble can reliably simulate the time evolution of the atmosphere, including low-likelihood high-impact extremes. In Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble initialized each day in summer 2023, and we characterize the simulations of extremes.

Mahesh, Ankur↗

DOE OSTI2026

HDSense: An efficient method for ranking observable sensitivity

Identifying which observables most effectively constrain model parameters can be computationally prohibitive when considering full likelihoods of many correlated observables. This is especially important for, e.g., hadronization models, where high precision is required to interpret the results of collider experiments. We introduce the High-Dimensional Sensitivity (HDSense) score, a computationally efficient metric for ranking observable sets using only one-dimensional histograms. Derived by profiling over unknown correlations in the Fisher information framework, the score balances total information content against redundancy between observables. We apply HDSense to rank a set observables in terms of their constraining power with respect to five parameters of the Lund string model of hadronization implemented in Pythia using simulated leptonic collider events at the $Z$ pole. Validation against machine-learning--based full-likelihood approximations demonstrates that HDSense successfully identifies near-optimal observable subsets. The framework naturally handles data from multiple experiments with different acceptances and incorporates detector effects. While demonstrated on hadronization models, the methodology applies broadly to generic parameter estimation problems where correlations are unknown or difficult to model.

Assi, Benoît [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:00000003092433↗

DOE OSTI2026

Smokescreen: A Python package for data vector blinding and encryption in cosmological analyses

Smokescreen is an open-source Python library for data-vector concealment (blinding) in cosmological analyses. Data-vector blinding works by applying cosmology-dependent shifts to the observed data vector, moving it away from the true cosmological signal without affecting its statistical properties, so that analysts cannot infer the true result until the analysis is frozen and the blinding is lifted. The package computes these shifts using Firecrown likelihoods applied to data vectors stored in the SACC format, ensuring that the theoretical model used for blinding is identical to that used for inference whilst remaining agnostic to the specific observable being blinded. To prevent accidental unblinding, the original SACC file, containing the true cosmology, is encrypted. Although developed for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), Smokescreen is applicable to any experiment using Firecrown likelihoods and the SACC data format.

Loureiro, Arthur [Stockholm U., OKC; Imperial Coll↗

DOE OSTI2026

Strong Lensing Cosmology with Population-level Calibrated Neural Ratio Estimation

Strong gravitational lensing contains key information about cosmic acceleration. Modern and next-generation galaxy imaging surveys are expected to provide high-quality data on $\mathcal{O}(10^5)$ galaxy-galaxy lensing systems. The plethora and complexity of the data are likely to present computational challenges for parameter inference methods for fitting high-dimensional likelihoods, which are often analytically intractable. Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE) efficiently computes individual likelihood ratios that can be combined into population-level posteriors. We use simulations to study the capacity of NRE to jointly predict the dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w$ and the total matter density $Ω_{m}$ from lensing images and companion spectroscopic information. We also introduce a post hoc posterior coverage calibration procedure that mitigates the model overconfidence that is typically found in neural density estimation applications. Our experiments show that the errors on both parameters decrease with increasing inference population sizes. In particular, for 100 lenses in a standard $Λ$CDM Universe, our calibrated NRE model achieves median fractional uncertainty of $22.8\%$ in $w$ and $2.9\%$ in $Ω_{m}$. This proof of concept demonstrates a potentially scalable approach for efficient cosmological parameter inference with large populations of galaxy-scale lenses observed in future surveys.

Jarugula, Sreevani [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000253867↗

DOE OSTI2024

CMPLE: Correlation Modeling to Decode Photosynthesis Using the Minorize–Maximize Algorithm

In plant genomic experiments, correlations among various biological traits (phenotypes) give new insights into how genetic diversity may have tuned biological processes to enhance fitness under diverse conditions. Consequently, knowing how the correlations are affected by genetic (G) and environmental (E) factors helps develop climate-resilient plants. However, the current literature lacks any method for assessing the effect of predictors on pairwise correlations among multiple phenotypes together with easily interpretable model parameters. To address this need, we propose to model pairwise correlations directly in terms of G and E and develop a computationally efficient inference procedure. Two major novelties in our methodology are (1) the use of a composite pairwise likelihood method to avoid the positive definiteness restriction on the correlation matrix and (2) the use of a novel Minorize–Maximize (MM) algorithm for the efficient estimation of a large number of parameters. The proposed method shows excellent numerical performance on synthetic datasets. Here, the analysis of the motivating data on cowpea reveals that the rates of solar energy storage by photosynthesis (the aggregate trait) are differentially affected by different genetic loci through two distinct processes: “photoinhibition” which results from photodamage caused by excess light, and “photoprotection” which protects plants from photodamage but also results in energy loss.

Correlation modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of off-shell Higgs boson production in the $H^*\rightarrow ZZ\rightarrow 4\ell$ decay channel using a neural simulation-based inference technique in 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of off-shell Higgs boson production in the $H^*\to ZZ\to 4\ell$ decay channel is presented. The measurement uses 140 fb −1 of proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider and supersedes the previous result in this decay channel using the same dataset. The data analysis is performed using a neural simulation-based inference method, which builds per-event likelihood ratios using neural networks. The observed (expected) off-shell Higgs boson production signal strength in the $ZZ\to 4\ell$ decay channel at 68% CL is $0.87^{+0.75}_{-0.54}$ ($1.00^{+1.04}_{-0.95}$ ). The evidence for off-shell Higgs boson production using the $ZZ\to 4\ell$ decay channel has an observed (expected) significance of 2.5σ (1.3σ). The expected result represents a significant improvement relative to that of the previous analysis of the same dataset, which obtained an expected significance of 0.5σ. When combined with the most recent ATLAS measurement in the $ZZ\to 2\ell 2\nu$ decay channel, the evidence for off-shell Higgs boson production has an observed (expected) significance of 3.7σ (2.4σ). The off-shell measurements are combined with the measurement of on-shell Higgs boson production to obtain constraints on the Higgs boson total width. The observed (expected) value of the Higgs boson width at 68% CL is $4.3^{+2.7}_{-1.9}$ ($4.1^{+3.5}_{-3.4}$ ) MeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Structure-aware Initialization via Numerical Continuation and Informed Priors

Scientific machine learning (SciML) often operates in ill-conditioned, weakly identifiable regimes due to limited data or indirect observations. In such settings, optimization and inference are highly sensitive to the starting point, making initialization--often under-reported--a consequential degree of freedom. Random initialization is not a neutral default as it induces an implicit prior over candidate solutions and can systematically bias the result, producing large run-to-run variability. Here, we formalize this view by treating initialization as a hidden confounder in SciML and develop a unifying theory for structure-aware initialization via numerical continuation, constructing warm starts from related problem instances. Across representative tasks, including physics-informed neural networks, maximum likelihood estimation, and variational inference, warm starts have been shown to consistently reduce optimization effort and improve reliability.

Data integrity↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Sparse Direct Effects in Multivariate Regression With the Spike-and-Slab LASSO

The multivariate regression interpretation of the Gaussian chain graph model simultaneously parametrizes (i) the direct effects of p predictors on q outcomes and (ii) the residual partial covariances between pairs of outcomes. We introduce a new method for fitting sparse versions of these models with spike-and-slab LASSO (SSL) priors. We develop an Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm to obtain sparse estimates of the p × q matrix of direct effects and the q × q residual precision matrix. Our algorithm iteratively solves a sequence of penalized maximum likelihood problems with self-adaptive penalties that gradually filter out negligible regression coefficients and partial covariances. Because it adaptively penalizes individual model parameters, our method is seen to outperform fixed-penalty competitors on simulated data. We establish the posterior contraction rate for our model, buttressing our method’s excellent empirical performance with strong theoretical guarantees. Using our method, we estimated the direct effects of diet and residence type on the composition of the gut microbiome of elderly adults.

EM algorithm↗

DOE OSTI2026

An Automated Probabilistic Asteroid Prediscovery Pipeline

We present an automated and probabilistic method to make prediscovery detections of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) in archival survey images, with the goal of reducing orbital uncertainty immediately after discovery. We refit the Minor Planet Center's astrometry and propagate the full six-parameter covariance to survey epochs to define search regions. We build low-threshold source catalogs for viable images and evaluate every detected source in a search region as a candidate prediscovery. We eliminate false positives by refitting a new orbit to each candidate and probabilistically linking detections across images using a likelihood ratio. Applied to the Zwicky Transient Facility's (ZTF) imaging, we identify approximately 3000 recently discovered NEAs with prediscovery potential, including a doubling of the observational arc for about 500. We use archival ZTF imaging to make prediscovery detections of the potentially hazardous asteroid 2021 DG1, extending its arc by 2.5 yr and reducing future apparition sky plane uncertainty from many degrees to arcseconds. We also recover 2025 FU24 nearly 7 yr before its first known observation, when its sky plane uncertainty covers hundreds of square degrees across thousands of ZTF images. The method is survey agnostic and scalable, enabling rapid orbit refinement for new discoveries from Rubin, NEO Surveyor, and NEOMIR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

BICEP/Keck. XX. Component-separated Maps of the Polarized Cosmic Microwave Background and Thermal Dust Emission Using Planck and BICEP/Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season

We present component-separated polarization maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and Galactic thermal dust emission, derived using data from the BICEP/Keck experiments through the 2018 observing season and Planck. By employing a maximum-likelihood method that utilizes observing matrices, we produce unbiased maps of the CMB and dust signals. We outline the computational challenges and demonstrate an efficient implementation of the component map estimator. We show methods to compute and characterize power spectra of these maps, opening up an alternative way to infer the tensor-to-scalar ratio from our data. We compare the results of this map-based separation method with the baseline BICEP/Keck analysis. Our analysis demonstrates consistency between the two methods, finding an 84% correlation between the pipelines.

cosmic inflation↗

DOE OSTI2024

First Principles Study of Aluminum Doped Polycrystalline Silicon as a Potential Anode Candidate in Li‐ion Batteries

Addressing sustainable energy storage remains crucial for transitioning to renewable sources. While Li‐ion batteries have made significant contributions, enhancing their capacity through alternative materials remains a key challenge. Micro‐sized silicon is a promising anode material due to its tenfold higher theoretical capacity compared to conventional graphite. However, its substantial volumetric expansion during cycling impedes practical application due to mechanical failure and rapid capacity fading. A novel approach is proposed to mitigate this issue by incorporating trace amounts of aluminum into the micro‐sized silicon electrode using ball milling. Density functional theory (DFT) is employed to establish a theoretical framework elucidating how grain boundary sliding, a key mechanism involved in preventing mechanical failure is facilitated by the presence of trace aluminum at grain boundaries. This, in turn, reduces stress accumulation within the material, reducing the likelihood of failure. To validate the theoretical predictions, capacity retention experiments are conducted on undoped and Al‐doped micro‐sized silicon samples. In conclusion, the results demonstrate significantly reduced capacity fading in the doped sample, corroborating the theoretical framework and showcasing the potential of aluminum doping for improved Li‐ion battery performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mitigating Battery Cell Failure: Role of Ag‐Nanoparticle Fillers in Solid Electrolyte Dendrite Suppression

Abstract The development of solid‐state batteries (SSBs) with lithium Li metal anodes holds significant promise for enhancing the energy density and safety of next‐generation energy storage systems. However, their commercialization is hindered by challenges related to Li dendrite formation, which can lead to short circuits and battery failure. In this study, the role of Ag nanoparticles embedded within solid electrolytes (SE) is investigated in suppressing dendrite propagation. The results demonstrate that Ag nanoparticles effectively mitigate two key failure mechanisms: (1) dendrite growth within porous networks at low current densities and (2) stress intensification‐induced SE fracture at higher current densities (12 mA cm −2 ). Ex situ characterization using focused‐ion beam – scanning electron microscopy (FIB–SEM) and energy dispersive X‐ray spectroscopy (EDS,) reveals that Ag nanoparticles migrate alongside advancing Li dendrites, promoting homogeneous dendrite growth and reducing the likelihood of localized stress concentrations. Additionally, the incorporation of Ag nanoparticles is shown to facilitate a more uniform Li distribution toward the anode side, which can potentially enable the use of higher charging rates in SSBs. This study provides a new perspective on Li dendrite suppression and presents new opportunities for enhancing the performance and safety of SSBs.

Diallo, Mouhamad Said↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Discrete‐Time Models for Spreading Processes in Complex Networks: A Review

Abstract Research into network dynamics of spreading processes typically employs both discrete and continuous time methodologies. Although each approach offers distinct insights, integrating them can be challenging, particularly when maintaining coherence across different time scales. This review focuses on the Microscopic Markov Chain Approach (MMCA), a probabilistic f ramework originally designed for epidemic modeling. MMCA uses discrete dynamics to compute the probabilities of individuals transitioning between epidemiological states. By treating each time step—usually a day—as a discrete event, the approach captures multiple concurrent changes within this time frame. The approach allows to estimate the likelihood of individuals or populations being in specific states, which correspond to distinct epidemiological compartments. This review synthesizes key findings from the application of this approach, providing a comprehensive overview of its utility in understanding epidemic spread.

Granell, Clara↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Nanosized {Ni II 18 } Cluster with a ‘Flying Saucer’ Topology Exhibiting Slow Relaxation of Magnetisation Phenomena at Both 15 K and 1.3 K

A high-nuclearity {Ni 18 } complex (1) with a unique ‘flying saucer’ motif has been prepared from the organic chelate, α-methyl-2-pyridine-methanol (mpmH), in conjunction with bridging azido (N 3 - ) and peroxido (O 2 2- ) ligands. Magnetic susceptibility measurements revealed the presence of both ferro- and antiferromagnetic exchange interactions between the metal centres in 1, and the stabilization of spin states with appreciable S values at two different temperature regimes. The end-on bridging azido and alkoxido groups are in all likelihood the ferromagnetic mediators, while the η 3 :η 3 :μ 6 -bridging peroxides most likely promote the antiparallel alignment of the metals’ spin vectors, yielding an overall non-zero spin ground state for the centrosymmetric compound 1. Furthermore, the {Ni 18 } nanosized cluster behaves as a single-molecule magnet, exhibiting magnetic hysteresis at low temperatures and two relaxation processes at 15 K and 1.3 K, a very rare phenomenon in polynuclear magnetic 3d-metal clusters.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Compactly‐Supported Nonstationary Kernels for Computing Exact Gaussian Processes on Big Data

The Gaussian process (GP) is a widely used method for analyzing large-scale data sets, including spatio-temporal measurements of nonlinear processes that are now commonplace in the environmental sciences. Traditional implementations of GPs involve stationary kernels (also termed covariance functions) that limit their flexibility, and exact methods for inference that prevent application to data sets with more than about 10,000 points. Modern approaches to address stationarity assumptions generally fail to accommodate large data sets, while all attempts to address scalability focus on approximating the Gaussian likelihood, which can involve subjectivity and lead to inaccuracies. In this work, we explicitly derive an alternative kernel that can discover and encode both sparsity and nonstationarity. We embed the kernel within a fully Bayesian GP model and leverage high-performance computing resources to enable the analysis of massive data sets. We demonstrate the favorable performance of our novel kernel relative to existing exact and approximate GP methods across a variety of synthetic data examples. Furthermore, we conduct space–time prediction based on more than 1 million measurements of daily maximum temperature and verify that our results outperform state-of-the-art methods in the Earth sciences. More broadly, having access to exact GPs that use ultra-scalable, sparsity-discovering, nonstationary kernels allows GP methods to truly compete with a wide variety of machine learning methods.

Gaussian processes↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dosimetric and biological impact of activity extravasation of radiopharmaceuticals in PET imaging

The increasing use of nuclear medicine and PET imaging has intensified scrutiny of radiotracer extravasation. To our knowledge, this topic is understudied but holds great potential for enhancing our understanding of extravasation in clinical PET imaging. This work aims to (1) quantify the absorbed doses from radiotracer extravasation in PET imaging, both locally at the site of extravasation and with the extravasation location as a source of exposure to bodily organs and (2) assess the biological ramifications within the injection site at the cellular level. A radiation dosimetry simulation was performed using a whole-body 4D Extended Cardiac-Torso (XCAT) phantom embedded in the GATE Monte Carlo platform. A 10-mCi dose of 18 F-FDG was chosen to simulate a typical clinical PET scan scenario, with 10% of the activity extravasated in the antecubital fossa of the right arm of the phantom. The extravasation volume was modeled as a 5.5 mL rectangle in the hypodermal layer of skin. Absorbed dose contributions were calculated for the first two half-lives, assuming biological clearance thereafter. Dose calculations were performed as absorbed doses at the organ and skin levels. Energy deposition was simulated both at the local extravasation site and in multiple organs of interest and converted to absorbed doses based on their respective masses. Each simulation was repeated ten times to estimate Monte Carlo uncertainties. Biological impacts on cells within the extravasated volume were evaluated by randomizing cells and exposing them to a uniform radiation source of 18 F and 68 Ga. Particle types, their energies, and direction cosines were recorded in phase space files using a separate Geant4 simulation to characterize their entry into the nucleus of the cellular volume. Subsequently, the phase space files were imported into the TOPAS-nBio simulation to assess the extent of DNA damage, including double-strand breaks (DSBs) and single-strand breaks (SSBs). Organ-level dosimetric estimations are presented for 18 F and 68 Ga radionuclides in various organs of interest. With 10% extravasation, the hypodermal layer of the skin received the highest absorbed dose of 1.32 ± 0.01 Gy for 18 F and 0.99 ± 0.01 Gy for 68 Ga. The epidermal and dermal layers received absorbed doses of 0.07 ± 0.01 Gy and 0.13 ± 0.01 Gy for 18 F, and 0.14 ± 0.01 Gy and 0.29 ± 0.01 Gy for 68 Ga, respectively. In the extravasated volume, 18 F caused an average absorbed dose per nucleus of 0.17 ± 0.01 Gy, estimated to result in 10.58 ± 0.50 DSBs and 268.11 ± 12.43 SSBs per nucleus. For 68 Ga, the absorbed dose per nucleus was 0.11 ± 0.01 Gy, leading to an estimated 6.49 ± 0.34 DSBs and 161.24 ± 8.12 SSBs per nucleus. Absorbed doses in other organs were on the order of micro-gray (µGy). The likelihood of epidermal erythema resulting from extravasation during PET imaging is low, as the simulated absorbed doses to the epidermis remain below the thresholds that trigger such effects. Moreover, the organ-level absorbed doses were found to be clinically insignificant across various simulated organs. The minimal DNA damage at the extravasation site suggests that long-term harm, such as radiation-induced carcinogenesis, is highly unlikely.

DNA strand breaks↗

DOE OSTI2024

Synthesizing realistic sand assemblies with denoising diffusion in latent space

Abstract The shapes and morphological features of grains in sand assemblies have far‐reaching implications in many engineering applications, such as geotechnical engineering, computer animations, petroleum engineering, and concentrated solar power. Yet, our understanding of the influence of grain geometries on macroscopic response is often only qualitative, due to the limited availability of high‐quality 3D grain geometry data. In this paper, we introduce a denoising diffusion algorithm that uses a set of point clouds collected from the surface of individual sand grains to generate grains in the latent space. By employing a point cloud autoencoder, the three‐dimensional point cloud structures of sand grains are first encoded into a lower‐dimensional latent space. A generative denoising diffusion probabilistic model is trained to produce synthetic sand that maximizes the log‐likelihood of the generated samples belonging to the original data distribution measured by a Kullback‐Leibler divergence. Numerical experiments suggest that the proposed method is capable of generating realistic grains with morphology, shapes and sizes consistent with the training data inferred from an F50 sand database. We then use a rigid contact dynamic simulator to pour the synthetic sand in a confined volume to form granular assemblies in a static equilibrium state with targeted distribution properties. To ensure third‐party validation, 50,000 synthetic sand grains and the 1542 real synchrotron microcomputed tomography (SMT) scans of the F50 sand, as well as the granular assemblies composed of synthetic sand grains are made available in an open‐source repository.

Vlassis, Nikolaos N.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Out With the Old: Empirical Trends in U.S. Land‐Based Wind Turbine Decommissioning and Repowering

A growing number of wind turbines (WTs) across the globe are now reaching or exceeding their expected service lifetime; WT decommissioning is on the rise. Accordingly, questions pertaining to WT end-of-life have risen in importance in policy and practice. Yet, research on the various factors relating to WT decommissioning is relatively sparse. Moreover, the key assumptions underpinning that prior research (e.g., the lifespan of WTs, characteristics of WTs being decommissioned, and whether the site is repowered with new WTs) have never been empirically tested across a large set of decommissioned WTs. Leveraging a uniquely comprehensive and spatially explicit dataset of decommissioned WTs in the United States, this research analyzes spatial, technological, and temporal trends in WT decommissioning and develops a novel predictive model for WT decommissioning. Our analysis pinpoints more than 12,400 WTs that have been fully decommissioned in the United States., the majority of which have been relatively old (> 30 years) and small (< 200 kW). While a WT's age alone is a good predictor of the likelihood of decommissioning, other factors such as the size of the WT and recent performance are also important and significant predictors. Most sites where decommissioning has occurred have seen subsequent repowering, with repowered plants featuring substantially fewer WTs (−86 on average) and higher rated plant capacity (+62 MW on average). Many existing WTs in the U.S. are approaching the end of their expected life with roughly 7500 being 20 or more years old. Findings can help policymakers and stakeholders begin preparing for this potential wave of future decommissioning and repowering.

Decommissioning / End-of-life↗