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DOE OSTI2021

Lowering post‐construction yield assessment uncertainty through better wind plant power curves

Abstract Many operational analyses of wind power plants require a statistical relationship, which can be called the wind plant power curve, to be developed between wind plant energy production and concurrent atmospheric variables. Currently, a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution is the industry standard for post‐construction yield assessments. Here, we evaluate the benefits in augmenting this conventional approach by testing alternative regressions performed with multiple inputs, at a finer time resolution, and using nonlinear machine‐learning algorithms. We utilize the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's open‐source software package OpenOA to assess wind plant power curves for 10 wind plants. When a univariate generalized additive model at daily or hourly resolution is used, regression uncertainty is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 1.0 % and 1.2 % (corresponding to a −59 % and −80 % relative change), respectively, compared to a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution; also, a more accurate assessment of the mean long‐term wind plant production is achieved. Additional input variables also reduce the regression uncertainty: when temperature is added as an input to the conventional monthly linear regression, the operational analysis uncertainty connected to regression is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 0.5 % (−43 % relative change) for wind power plants with strong seasonal variability. Adding input variables to the machine‐learning model at daily resolution can further reduce regression uncertainty, with up to a −10 % relative change. Based on these results, we conclude that a multivariate nonlinear regression at daily or hourly resolution should be recommended for assessing wind plant power curves.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Iterative Linearization for Phasor-Defined Optimal Power Dispatch

Optimal power flow (OPF) problems, which dispatch power targets to controllable generating units across a network, must generally account for non-convex constraints on power flow. Furthermore, adapting those problems so as to make them solvable with convex optimization techniques is an area of much academic and operational interest. In this paper, we present a method for solving OPF as a quadratic program by iteratively refining and re-initializing a linearized model of power flow based on the outputs of an associated nonlinear solver. The linear model on which we demonstrate this method is an adapted version of an approximation designed for use with unbalanced distribution networks. As an important benefit, the model allows for the explicit inclusion of nodal voltage phasor values in both the OPF problem's objective and its constraints, which opens the door to the idea of phasor-based control (PBC) design. We show in simulations on the IEEE 13-node test feeder that our method quickly converges to a set of phasor targets that are sufficiently precise for use in operations at the distribution level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Parallel interior-point solver for block-structured nonlinear programs on SIMD/GPU architectures

Here, we investigate how to port the standard interior-point method to new exascale architectures for block-structured nonlinear programs with state equations. Computationally, we decompose the interior-point algorithm into two successive operations: the evaluation of the derivatives and the solution of the associated Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) linear system. Our method accelerates both operations using two levels of parallelism. First, we distribute the computations on multiple processes using coarse parallelism. Second, each process uses SIMD/GPU accelerators locally to accelerate the operations using fine-grained parallelism. The KKT system is reduced by eliminating the inequalities and the state variables from the corresponding equations. We demonstrate our method's capability on the supercomputer Polaris, a testbed for the future exascale Aurora system. Each node is equipped with four GPUs, a setup amenable to our two-level approach. Our experiments on the stochastic optimal power flow problem show that the reduction method is 50x faster than the sparse linear solver HSL MA57 running in serial on the CPU, and 6x faster than Pardiso running in parallel on CPU on the same number of processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear Photovoltaic Degradation Rates: Modeling and Comparison Against Conventional Methods

Although common practice for estimating photovoltaic (PV) degradation rate (RD) assumes a linear behavior, field data have shown that degradation rates are frequently nonlinear. This article presents a new methodology to detect and calculate nonlinear RD based on PV performance time-series from nine different systems over an eight-year period. Prior to performing the analysis and in order to adjust model parameters to reflect actual PV operation, synthetic datasets were utilized for calibration purposes. A change-point analysis is then applied to detect changes in the slopes of PV trends, which are extracted from constructed performance ratio (PR) time-series. Once the number and location of change points is found, the ordinary least squares method is applied to the different segments to compute the corresponding rates. The obtained results verified that the extracted trends from the PR time-series may not always be linear and therefore, “nonconventional” models need to be applied. All thin-film technologies demonstrated nonlinear behavior whereas nonlinearity detected in the crystalline silicon systems is thought to be due to a maintenance event. A comparative analysis between the new methodology and other conventional methods demonstrated levelized cost of energy differences of up to 6.14%, highlighting the importance of considering nonlinear degradation behavior

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Isogeometric Bézier dual mortaring: The Kirchhoff–Love shell problem

Here in this paper we develop an isogeometric Bézier dual mortar method for coupling multi-patch Kirchhoff–Love shell structures. The proposed approach weakly enforces the continuity of the solution at patch interfaces through a dual mortar method and can be applied to both conforming and non-conforming discretizations. As the employed dual basis functions have local supports and satisfy the biorthogonality property, the resulting stiffness matrix is sparse. In addition, the coupling accuracy is optimal because the dual basis possesses the polynomial reproduction property. We also formulate the continuity constraints through the Rodrigues’ rotation operator which gives a unified framework for coupling patches that are intersected with G 1 continuity as well as patches that meet at a kink. Several linear and nonlinear examples demonstrated the performance and robustness of the proposed coupling techniques.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Semidefinite programming algorithm for the quantum mechanical bootstrap

Here, we present a semidefinite programming algorithm to find eigenvalues of Schrödinger operators within the bootstrap approach to quantum mechanics. The bootstrap approach involves two ingredients: a nonlinear set of constraints on the variables (expectation values of operators in an energy eigenstate), plus positivity constraints (unitarity) that need to be satisfied. By fixing the energy we linearize all the constraints and show that the feasibility problem can be presented as an optimization problem for the variables that are not fixed by the constraints and one additional slack variable that measures the failure of positivity. To illustrate the method we are able to obtain high-precision, sharp bounds on eigenenergies for arbitrary confining polynomial potentials in one dimension.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Guided Mode Evolution and Ionization Injection in Meter-Scale Multi-GeV Laser Wakefield Accelerators

Here, we show that multi-GeV laser wakefield electron accelerators in meter-scale, low density hydrodynamic plasma waveguides operate in a new nonlinear propagation regime dominated by sustained beating of lowest order modes of the ponderomotively modified channel; this occurs whether or not the injected pulse is linearly matched to the guide. For a continuously doped gas jet, this emergent mode beating effect leads to axially modulated enhancement of ionization injection and a multi-GeV energy spectrum of multiple quasimonoenergetic peaks; the same process in a locally doped jet produces single multi-GeV peaks with <10% energy spread. A three-stage model of drive laser pulse evolution and ionization injection characterizes the beating effect and explains our experimental results.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benchmark of numerical modeling approaches on the systematic performance evaluation of wave energy converters

Different numerical modeling methods have been developed and applied to evaluate a variety of performance indicators of wave energy converters (WECs), including the power performance, structural loads, levelized cost of energy, etc. Based on the modeling fidelity, the commonly used numerical modeling approaches can be classified as linear modeling, weakly nonlinear modeling and fully nonlinear modeling approaches. Each method differs in accuracy and computational efficiency, making them suitable for different stages of WEC design. However, the selection of modeling approach could significantly impact evaluation outcomes. For instance, simplified linear models may underestimate structural loads or overestimate energy production in some operational conditions, potentially leading to less cost-effective designs. Given the widespread utilization of these models, it is essential to understand the uncertainties brought by them in performance evaluations. This work is dedicated to benchmarking different linear-potential-flow-based numerical models for evaluating the systematic performance of WECs. Three representative numerical modeling approaches are considered in this work, including linear frequency-domain modeling, statistically linearized spectral-domain modeling and Cummins equation-based nonlinear time-domain modeling. A generic point absorber WEC is considered as the research reference in this work, and different sea sites are taken into account. The numerical models are utilized to predict critical performance indicators, including power performance, the annual energy production, the capacity factor, the levelized cost of energy and the PTO fatigue loads. By comparing the results, this work identifies the uncertainties associated with different modeling approaches in evaluating WEC performance.

Fatigue↗

DOE OSTI2024

VpROM: a novel variational autoencoder-boosted reduced order model for the treatment of parametric dependencies in nonlinear systems

Reduced Order Models (ROMs) are of considerable importance in many areas of engineering in which computational time presents difficulties. Established approaches employ projection-based reduction, such as Proper Orthogonal Decomposition. The limitation of the linear nature of such operators is typically tackled via a library of local reduction subspaces, which requires the assembly of numerous local ROMs to address parametric dependencies. Our work attempts to define a more generalisable mapping between parametric inputs and reduced bases for the purpose of generative modeling. We propose the use of Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) in place of the typically utilised clustering or interpolation operations, for inferring the fundamental vectors, termed as modes, which approximate the manifold of the model response for any and each parametric input state. The derived ROM still relies on projection bases, built on the basis of full-order model simulations, thus retaining the imprinted physical connotation. However, it additionally exploits a matrix of coefficients that relates each local sample response and dynamics to the global phenomena across the parametric input domain. The VAE scheme is utilised for approximating these coefficients for any input state. This coupling leads to a high-precision low-order representation, which is particularly suited for problems where model dependencies or excitation traits cause the dynamic behavior to span multiple response regimes. Moreover, the probabilistic treatment of the VAE representation allows for uncertainty quantification on the reduction bases, which may then be propagated to the ROM response. The performance of the proposed approach is validated on an open-source simulation benchmark featuring hysteresis and multi-parametric dependencies, and on a large-scale wind turbine tower characterised by nonlinear material behavior and model uncertainty.

Conditional VAEs↗

DOE OSTI2023

A fast Fourier transform-based solver for elastic micropolar composites

This work presents a spectral micromechanical formulation for obtaining the full-field and homogenized response of elastic micropolar composites. The algorithm relies on a coupled set of convolution integral equations for the micropolar strains, where periodic Green’s operators associated with a linear homogeneous reference medium are convolved with functions of the Cauchy and couple stress fields that encode the material’s heterogeneity, as well as any potential material nonlinearity. Such convolution integral equations take an algebraic form in the reciprocal Fourier space that can be solved iteratively. In this vein, the fast Fourier transform (FFT) algorithm is leveraged to accelerate the numerical solution, resulting in a mesh-free formulation in which the periodic unit cell representing the heterogeneous material can be discretized by a regular grid of pixels in two dimensions (or voxels in three dimensions). For verification, the numerical solutions obtained with the micropolar FFT solver are compared with analytical solutions for a matrix with a dilute circular inclusion subjected to plane strain loading. The developed computational framework is then used to study length-scale effects and effective (micropolar) moduli of composites with various topological configurations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ensuring Transient Stability With Guaranteed Region of Attraction in DC Microgrids

DC microgrids have promising applications in renewable integration due to their better energy efficiency when connecting DC components. However, they might be unstable since many loads in a DC microgrid are regulated as constant power loads (CPLs) that have a destabilizing negative impedance effect. As a result, the state trajectory displacement caused by abrupt load changes or contingencies can easily lead to instability. Many existing works have been devoted to studying the region of attraction (ROA) of a DC microgrid, in which the system is guaranteed to be asymptotically stable. Nevertheless, existing work either focuses on using numerical methods for ROA approximations that generally have no performance guarantees or cannot ensure a desired ROA for a general DC microgrid. To close this gap, this paper develops an innovative control synthesis algorithm to make a general DC microgrid have a theoretically guaranteed ROA, for example, to cover the entirety of its operating range regarding state trajectories. Here, we first study the nonlinear dynamics of a DC microgrid to derive a novel transient stability condition to rigorously certify whether a given operating range is a subset of the ROA; then, we formulate a control synthesis optimization problem to guarantee the condition’s satisfaction. This condition is a linear constraint, and the optimization problem resembles an optimal power flow problem and has a good computational behavior. Simulation case studies verify the validity of the proposed work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

A new operator-split Compton scattering method

In high-energy-density physics, when the temperatures are high (keV-range) and/or the densities are low, Compton scattering becomes the main energy transfer mechanism between the radiation field and the material. The interaction between the radiation field and the material is non-linear in the radiation field – due to induced processes caused by photons being bosons – and in the material temperature. Many existing codes use a Compton-Fokker-Planck (CFP) approximation – which is inaccurate for high photon energies or material temperatures – or use linear approximations within a time-step. Here, we have implemented a new Compton-heating method called OS-FBC (Operator-Split Full-Boltzmann Compton) that solves the full, nonlinear Compton-heating system with few approximations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A set of test problems for nonlinear optimization

The software is a set of test problems for nonlinear optimization algorithms, including subroutines such as linear algebra routines and automatic differentiation algorithms. The test problems come from chemical engineering open literature, and describe optimization tasks related to the design and operation of processes such as carbon capture, Hydrogen production, heat exchange, and distillation.

Parker, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic multi-period optimal dispatch of energy storage in unbalanced distribution feeders

This report presents a convex, multi-period, AC-feasible Optimal Power Flow (OPF) framework that robustly dispatches flexible demand-side resources in unbalanced distribution feeders against uncertainty in very-short timescale solar Photo-Voltaic (PV) forecasts. This is valuable for power systems with significant behind-the-meter solar PV generation as their operation is affected by uncertainty from forecasts of demand and solar PV generation. The aim of this work is then to ensure the feasibility and reliability of distribution system operation under high solar PV penetration. We develop and present a novel, robust OPF formulation that accounts for both the nonlinear power flow constraints and the uncertainty in forecasts. This is achieved by linearizing an optimal trajectory and using first-order methods to systematically tighten voltage bounds. Case studies on a realistic distribution feeder shows the effectiveness of a receding-horizon implementation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Universal Compiling and (No-)Free-Lunch Theorems for Continuous-Variable Quantum Learning

Quantum compiling, where a parameterized quantum circuit is trained to learn a target unitary, is an important primitive for quantum computing that can be used as a subroutine to obtain optimal circuits or as a tomographic tool to study the dynamics of an experimental system. While much attention has been paid to quantum compiling on discrete-variable hardware, less has been paid to compiling in the continuous-variable paradigm. Here we motivate several, closely related, short-depth continuous-variable algorithms for quantum compilation. We analyze the trainability of our proposed cost functions and numerically demonstrate our algorithms by learning arbitrary Gaussian operations and Kerr nonlinearities. We further make connections between this framework and quantum learning theory in the continuous-variable setting by deriving no-free-lunch theorems. These generalization bounds demonstrate a linear resource reduction for learning Gaussian unitaries using entangled coherent-Fock states and an exponential resource reduction for learning arbitrary unitaries using two-mode-squeezed states.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Residual-based error correction for neural operator accelerated infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems

We explore using neural operators, or neural network representations of nonlinear maps between function spaces, to accelerate infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs) with models governed by nonlinear parametric partial differential equations (PDEs). Neural operators have gained significant attention in recent years for their ability to approximate the parameter-to-solution maps defined by PDEs using as training data solutions of PDEs at a limited number of parameter samples. The computational cost of BIPs can be drastically reduced if the large number of PDE solves required for posterior characterization are replaced with evaluations of trained neural operators. However, reducing error in the resulting BIP solutions via reducing the approximation error of the neural operators in training can be challenging and unreliable. We provide an a priori error bound result that implies certain BIPs can be ill-conditioned to the approximation error of neural operators, thus leading to inaccessible accuracy requirements in training. To reliably deploy neural operators in BIPs, we consider a strategy for enhancing the performance of neural operators: correcting the prediction of a trained neural operator by solving a linear variational problem based on the PDE residual. We show that a trained neural operator with error correction can achieve a quadratic reduction of its approximation error, all while retaining substantial computational speedups of posterior sampling when models are governed by highly nonlinear PDEs. The strategy is applied to two numerical examples of BIPs based on a nonlinear reaction–diffusion problem and deformation of hyperelastic materials. We demonstrate that posterior representations of the two BIPs produced using trained neural operators are greatly and consistently enhanced by error correction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Edge localized mode characteristics and divertor heat flux during stationary and transient phase for CFETR hybrid scenario

The study of edge localized mode (ELM) behavior, stationary heat flux and transient heat flux during the ELM crash phase is performed for a China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) 1 GW hybrid mode operation scenario ($R$ = 7.2 m, ${B_{\text{T}}}$ = 6.5 T, ${I_{\text{p}}}$ = 13.78 MA). Modeling and simulation start with a scenario obtained by multi-code integrated modeling on the one modeling framework for integrated tasks framework. Linear stability and nonlinear simulations of ELM dynamics are carried out using the BOUT++ six-field reduced magnetohydrodynamic module, which show a much smaller ELM energy loss (Δ ELM ~ 0.13%) compared to that of a Type-I ELM. Parametric analysis of the weak linear growth rate and small ELM energy loss characteristics shed light on physics corresponding to a grassy ELM regime for CFETR 1 GW hybrid scenario. The transient heat flux on the divertor target during this small ELM phase is investigated using BOUT++. Here we found that upstream radial transport in the scrape-off-layer (SOL) induced by small ELMs is weak, which keeps it in the drift-dominated region. However, the heat flux width is still broadened to ${\lambda _{\text{q}}}$ = 4.64 mm by the increase of separatrix temperature during ELM nonlinear evolution. The impact of transient peak heat load and ELM energy fluence on tungsten melting and net erosion rate of divertor target is evaluated for the first-time using physics-based transport that connects the pedestal with the SOL. Energy fluence caused by a single ELM pulse is below the tungsten melting limit, while tungsten erosion would exceed the material requirements. We conclude that external mitigation methods, such as divertor detachment and advanced divertor geometry are likely needed for the steady state operation of CFETR.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Learning physics-based reduced-order models from data using nonlinear manifolds

Here we present a novel method for learning reduced-order models of dynamical systems using nonlinear manifolds. First, we learn the manifold by identifying nonlinear structure in the data through a general representation learning problem. The proposed approach is driven by embeddings of low-order polynomial form. A projection onto the nonlinear manifold reveals the algebraic structure of the reduced-space system that governs the problem of interest. The matrix operators of the reduced-order model are then inferred from the data using operator inference. Numerical experiments on a number of nonlinear problems demonstrate the generalizability of the methodology and the increase in accuracy that can be obtained over reduced-order modeling methods that employ a linear subspace approximation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗