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At least 91 records · Page 5

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were compared using an independent verification data set. The two methods were compared to climatology, wind warnings and advisories issued by the 45 WS, and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) forecast winds. The performance of the Phase I and II methods were similar with respect to mean absolute error. Since the Phase I data were not stratified by precipitation, this method's peak wind forecasts had a large negative bias on days with precipitation and a small positive bias on days with no precipitation. Overall, the climatology methods performed the worst while the MesoNAM performed the best. Since the MesoNAM winds were the most accurate in the comparison, the final version of the tool was based on the MesoNAM winds. The probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the warning thresholds were based on the one standard deviation error bars from the linear regression. For example, the linear regression might forecast the most likely peak speed to be 35 kt and the error bars used to calculate that the probability of >= 25 kt = 76%, the probability of >= 35 kt = 50%, and the probability of >= 50 kt = 19%. The authors have not seen this application of linear regression error bars in any other meteorological applications. Although probability forecast tools should usually be developed with logistic regression, this technique could be easily generalized to any linear regression forecast tool to estimate the probability of exceeding any desired threshold . This could be useful for previously developed linear regression forecast tools or new forecast applications where statistical analysis software to perform logistic regression is not available. The tool was delivered in two formats - a Microsoft Excel GUI and a Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) GUI in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The Microsoft Excel GUI reads a MesoNAM text file containing hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours, from one model run (00 or 12 UTC). The GUI then displays e peak wind speed, average wind speed, and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the 25-, 35- and 50-kt thresholds. The user can display the Day-1 through Day-3 peak wind forecasts, and separate forecasts are made for precipitation and non-precipitation days. The MIDDS GUI uses data from the NAM and Global Forecast System (GFS), instead of the MesoNAM. It can display Day-1 and Day-2 forecasts using NAM data, and Day-1 through Day-5 forecasts using GFS data. The timing of the peak wind is not displayed, since the independent verification showed that none of the forecast methods performed significantly better than climatology. The forecaster should use the climatological timing of the peak wind (2248 UTC) as a first guess and then adjust it based on the movement of weather features.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

A logistics and potential hazard study of propellant systems for a Saturn 5 derived heavy lift (three-stage core) launch vehicle

The Bush Administration has directed NASA to prepare for a return to the Moon and on to Mars - the Space Exploration Initiative. To meet this directive, powerful rocket boosters will be required in order to lift payloads that may reach the half-million pound range into low earth orbit. In this report an analysis is presented on logistics and potential hazards of the propellant systems envisioned for future Saturn 5 derived heavy lift launch vehicles. In discussing propellant logistics, particular attention has been given to possible problems associated with procurement, transportation, and storage of RP-1, HL2, and LOX, the heavy lift launch vehicle propellants. Current LOX producing facilities will need to be expanded and propellant storage and some support facilities will require relocation if current Launch Pads 39A and/or 39B are to be used for future heavy noise-abatement measures. Included in the report is a discussion of suggested additional studies, primarily economic and environmental, which should be undertaken in support of the goals of the Space Exploration Initiative.

Whitney, E. Dow↗

Application of statistical distribution theory to launch-on-time for space construction logistic support

The ability to launch-on-time and to send payloads into space has progressed dramatically since the days of the earliest missile and space programs. Causes for delay during launch, i.e., unplanned 'holds', are attributable to several sources: weather, range activities, vehicle conditions, human performance, etc. Recent developments in space program, particularly the need for highly reliable logistic support of space construction and the subsequent planned operation of space stations, large unmanned space structures, lunar and Mars bases, and the necessity of providing 'guaranteed' commercial launches have placed increased emphasis on understanding and mastering every aspect of launch vehicle operations. The Center of Space Construction has acquired historical launch vehicle data and is applying these data to the analysis of space launch vehicle logistic support of space construction. This analysis will include development of a better understanding of launch-on-time capability and simulation of required support systems for vehicle assembly and launch which are necessary to support national space program construction schedules. In this paper, the author presents actual launch data on unscheduled 'hold' distributions of various launch vehicles. The data have been supplied by industrial associate companies of the Center for Space Construction. The paper seeks to determine suitable probability models which describe these historical data and that can be used for several purposes such as: inputs to broader simulations of launch vehicle logistic space construction support processes and the determination of which launch operations sources cause the majority of the unscheduled 'holds', and hence to suggest changes which might improve launch-on-time. In particular, the paper investigates the ability of a compound distribution probability model to fit actual data, versus alternative models, and recommends the most productive avenues for future statistical work.

Morgenthaler, George W.↗

Space station systems analysis study. Part 2, volume 3: Appendixes, Book 2: Supporting data (7 through 18)

Topics discussed include: (1) design considerations for a MARS sample return laboratory module for space station investigations; (2) crew productivity as a function of work shift arrangement; (3) preliminary analysis of the local logistics problem on the space construction base; (4) mission hardware construction operational flows and timelines; (5) orbit transfer vehicle concept definition; (6) summary of results and findings of space processing working review; (7) crew and habitability subsystem (option L); (8) habitability subsystem considerations for shuttle tended option L; (9) orbiter utilization in manned sortie missions; (10) considerations in definition of space construction base standard module configuration (option L); (11) guidance, control, and navigation subsystems; and (12) system and design tradeoffs.

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Proposed Array-based Deep Space Network for NASA

The current assets of the Deep Space Network (DSN) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), especially the 70-m antennas, are aging and becoming less reliable. Furthermore, they are expensive to operate and difficult to upgrade for operation at Ka-band (321 GHz). Replacing them with comparable monolithic large antennas would be expensive. On the other hand, implementation of similar high-sensitivity assets can be achieved economically using an array-based architecture, where sensitivity is measured by G/T, the ratio of antenna gain to system temperature. An array-based architecture would also provide flexibility in operations and allow for easy addition of more G/T whenever required. Therefore, an array-based plan of the next-generation DSN for NASA has been proposed. The DSN array would provide more flexible downlink capability compared to the current DSN for robust telemetry, tracking and command services to the space missions of NASA and its international partners in a cost effective way. Instead of using the array as an element of the DSN and relying on the existing concept of operation, we explore a broader departure in establishing a more modern concept of operations to reduce the operations costs. This paper presents the array-based architecture for the next generation DSN. It includes system block diagram, operations philosophy, user's view of operations, operations management, and logistics like maintenance philosophy and anomaly analysis and reporting. To develop the various required technologies and understand the logistics of building the array-based lowcost system, a breadboard array of three antennas has been built. This paper briefly describes the breadboard array system and its performance.

telemetry↗

Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Prognostics Project

The project implements prognostics capabilities to predict when a component system or subsystem will no longer meet desired functional or performance criteria, called the end of life. The capability also provides an assessment of the remaining useful life of a hardware component. The project enables the delivery of system health advisories to ground system operators. This project will use modeling techniques and algorithms to assess components' health andpredict remaining life for such components. The prognostics capability being developed will beused:during the design phase and during pre/post operations to conduct planning and analysis ofsystem design, maintenance & logistics plans, and system/mission operations plansduring real-time operations to monitor changes to components' health and assess their impacton operations.This capability will be interfaced to Ground Operations' command and control system as a part ofthe AGSM project to help assure system availability and mission success. The initial modelingeffort for this capability will be developed for Liquid Oxygen ground loading applications.

Prognostics↗

Integrated Crewed Mars Mission Analysis, Part II: The Trajectory Strikes Back

Crewed missions to Mars present a challenging problem involving strong interactions between a variety of spacecraft systems. Design and architecture decisions made by one system can have powerful implications for another. Siloed subsystem development and optimization efforts are unlikely to generate optimal results for the integrated system and may lead to counterproductive investments at the mission and system level. Mismatched assumptions between different subsystems can also negatively impact the final result. Integrated systems analysis, trade studies, and sensitivity analysis are a critical element of successful Mars mission design. Previous work examined the linkages between Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) loop closure, food water content, spares Probability of Sufficiency (POS), and other factors by performing an integrated mass and cost assessment of a variety of Mars habitat and transportation system designs. This paper expands upon that work by evaluating the impact of mission duration, trajectory, and propulsion technology alongside key habitat variables. Transportation system and trajectory design decisions have enormous impacts on overall system mass, and the impacts of those decisions are themselves sensitive to the mass of the habitat that is being transported. This paper examines a variety of mission cases and evaluates total departure mass for each case. An estimate of relative costs for specific cases is also provided. The results are discussed, with an emphasis on the sensitivity of mass, cost, and other figures of merit to key parameters. Interactions and dependencies between various decisions, particularly those that relate to technology investments, are also highlighted. Overall, the various elements, systems, and subsystems required to support human spaceflight should not be optimized and evaluated in isolation, but instead should be analyzed as part of an integrated system. This paper demonstrates how integrated analysis can improve system understanding and lead to more optimal and effective crewed exploration systems.

Human Spaceflight↗

Integrated Crewed Mars Mission Analysis, Part II: The Trajectory Strikes Back

Crewed missions to Mars present a challenging problem involving strong interactions between a variety of spacecraft systems. Design and architecture decisions made by one system can have powerful implications for another. Siloed subsystem development and optimization efforts are unlikely to generate optimal results for the integrated system and may lead to counterproductive investments at the mission and system level. Mismatched assumptions between different subsystems can also negatively impact the final result. Integrated systems analysis, trade studies, and sensitivity analysis are a critical element of successful Mars mission design. Previous work examined the linkages between Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) loop closure, food water content, spares Probability of Sufficiency (POS), and other factors by performing an integrated mass and cost assessment of a variety of Mars habitat and transportation system designs. This paper expands upon that work by evaluating the impact of mission duration, trajectory, and propulsion technology alongside key habitat variables. Transportation system and trajectory design decisions have enormous impacts on overall system mass, and the impacts of those decisions are themselves sensitive to the mass of the habitat that is being transported. This paper examines a variety of mission cases and evaluates total departure mass for each case. An estimate of relative costs for specific cases is also provided. The results are discussed, with an emphasis on the sensitivity of mass, cost, and other figures of merit to key parameters. Interactions and dependencies between various decisions, particularly those that relate to technology investments, are also highlighted. Overall, the various elements, systems, and subsystems required to support human spaceflight should not be optimized and evaluated in isolation, but instead should be analyzed as part of an integrated system. This paper demonstrates how integrated analysis can improve system understanding and lead to more optimal and effective crewed exploration systems.

Human Spaceflight↗

Sortie laboratory, phase B technical summary

The design and operational requirements which evolved from Sortie Lab (SL) analysis are summarized. A source of requirements for systems is given along with experimental support for the SL, baseline. Basic design data covered include: configuration definition, mission analysis, experimental integration, safety, and logistics. A technical summary outlines characteristics which reflect the influence of the growth in SL capability and the results of the mission and operational analysis. Each of the selected areas is described in terms of objectives, equipment, operational concept, and support requirements.

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Logistics resupply scenario for the Space Station

The paper addresses an approach to developing an integrated scenario definition, operations considerations and hardware concepts development cycle that will provide the most effective set of concepts meeting Space Station logistics criteria. Attention is given to logistics system requirements sources, design package team involvement, requirements analysis and development, scenario development and evaluation, and logistics elements configuration. It is noted that the surviving set of integrated scenarios provided hardware and support requirements with built in discipline compliance and operational sensitivity.

Powell, L.↗

NASA Space Rocket Logistics Challenges

The Space Launch System (SLS) is the new NASA heavy lift launch vehicle and is scheduled for its first mission in 2017. The goal of the first mission, which will be uncrewed, is to demonstrate the integrated system performance of the SLS rocket and spacecraft before a crewed flight in 2021. SLS has many of the same logistics challenges as any other large scale program. Common logistics concerns for SLS include integration of discreet programs geographically separated, multiple prime contractors with distinct and different goals, schedule pressures and funding constraints. However, SLS also faces unique challenges. The new program is a confluence of new hardware and heritage, with heritage hardware constituting seventy-five percent of the program. This unique approach to design makes logistics concerns such as commonality especially problematic. Additionally, a very low manifest rate of one flight every four years makes logistics comparatively expensive. That, along with the SLS architecture being developed using a block upgrade evolutionary approach, exacerbates long-range planning for supportability considerations. These common and unique logistics challenges must be clearly identified and tackled to allow SLS to have a successful program. This paper will address the common and unique challenges facing the SLS programs, along with the analysis and decisions the NASA Logistics engineers are making to mitigate the threats posed by each.

Neeley, James R.↗

Optimization of the Pressurized Logistics Module - A Space Station Freedom analytical study

The analysis for determining the optimum cylindrical length of the Space Station Freedom (SSF) Pressurized Logistics Module, whose task is to transport the SSF pressurized cargo via the NSTS Shuttle Orbiter, is described. The major factors considered include the NSTS net launch lift capability, the pressurized cargo requirements, and the mass properties of the module structures, mechanisms, and subsystems.

Scallan, J. M.↗

NASA trend analysis procedures

This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

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Logistics Reduction and Repurposing Beyond Low Earth Orbit

All human space missions, regardless of destination, require significant logistical mass and volume that is strongly proportional to mission duration. Anything that can be done to reduce initial mass and volume of supplies or reuse items that have been launched will be very valuable. Often, the logistical items require disposal and represent a trash burden. Logistics contributions to total mission architecture mass can be minimized by considering potential reuse using systems engineering analysis. In NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems "Logistics Reduction and Repurposing Project," various tasks will reduce the intrinsic mass of logistical packaging, enable reuse and repurposing of logistical packaging and carriers for other habitation, life support, crew health, and propulsion functions, and reduce or eliminate the nuisance aspects of trash at the same time. Repurposing reduces the trash burden and eliminates the need for hardware whose function can be provided by use of spent logistical items. However, these reuse functions need to be identified and built into future logical systems to enable them to effectively have a secondary function. These technologies and innovations will help future logistics systems to support multiple exploration missions much more efficiently.

Ewert, Michael K.↗

A continuation of base-line studies for environmentally monitoring space transportation systems at John F. Kennedy Space Center. Executive summary

Studies conducted in and around John F. Kennedy Space Center, Merrit Island, Florida were designed to establish baseline conditions for various attributes of the biotic and abiotic environment. Features were described and quantitatively measured. Certain condition were found to be appropriate for the detection and assessment of possible environmental perturbations caused by future NASA activities. These include plant communities, mammal populations, rainfall chemistry, fish populations, and the status of rare and endangered species. On the basis of statistical analysis of quantitative data and logistic considerations, it was possible to refine the kinds and amounts of measurements needed to evaluate perturbations in selected environmental components.

Stout, I. J.↗

Research and technology, 1984 report

Research and technology projects in the following areas are described: cryogenic engineering, hypergolic engineering, hazardous warning instrumentation, structures and mechanics, sensors and controls, computer sciences, communications, material analysis, biomedicine, meteorology, engineering management, logistics, training and maintenance aids, and technology applications.

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