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Physiologic Responses Produced by Active and Passive Personal Cooling Vests

Personal thermoregulatory systems which provide chest cooling are used in the industrial and aerospace environments to alleviate thermal stress. However, little information is available regarding the physiologic and circulatory changes produced by routine operation of these systems. The objectives of this study were to document and compare the subjects' response to three cooling vests in their recommended configurations. The Life Enhancement Tech (LET) lightweight active cooling vest with cap, the MicroClimate Systems Change of Phase garment (MCS), and the Steele Vest were each used to cool the chest regions of 12 male and 8 female Healthy subjects (21 to 69 yr.) in this study. The subjects, seated in an upright position at normal room temperature (approx. 22 C), were tested for 60 min. with one of the cooling garments. The LET active garment had an initial coolant fluid inlet temperature of 60 F, and was ramped down to 50 F. Oral, right and left ear canal temperatures were logged manually every 5 min. Arm, leg, chest and rectal temperatures; heart rate; and respiration were recorded continuously on a U.F.I., Inc. Biolog ambulatory monitor. For men, all three vests had similar, significant cooling effects. Decreases in the average rectal temperature, oral temperature, and ear canal temperatures were approximately 0.2 C, 0.2 C and 0.1 C, respectively. In contrast to the men, the female subjects wearing the MCS and Steel vests had similar cooling responses in which the core temperature remained elevated and oral and ear canal temperatures did not drop. The LET active garment cooled most of the female subjects in this study; rectal, oral and ear temperature decreased about 0.2 C, 0.3 C and 0.3 C, respectively. These results show that the garment configurations tested do not elicit a similar thermal response in all subjects. A gender difference is evident. The LET active garment configuration was most effective in decreasing temperatures of the female subjects; the MCS vest was least effective. For male subjects, the three vests appear to be more nearly equivalent. The active garment system under study included a cooling cap, which may account for some of the difference in response.

Ku, Yu-Tsuan E.

Media Calibration in the Deep Space Network: A Status Report

A new media calibration system (MCS) has been implemented at the Goldstone complex of the DSN (Deep Space Network). It is intended to calibrate the delay of radio signals imposed by the neutral atmosphere. The system provides periodic measurements of both the static dry and fluctuating wet components of this delay. In particular, the system will calibrate the fluctuations in line of sight path delay due to atmospheric water vapor that we believe will dominate the error budget for several radio science and radio astronomy experiments. We have compared two of these media calibration systems with a connected element interferometer on a 21 km baseline. In this report we describe a total of 30 observations in which a radio source was tracked for an hour or more and the delay residuals then calibrated using the MCS. The accuracy of the comparison appears to be limited by systematic errors in the interferometer, which are under investigation. However, our results do indicate that the MCS can meet or exceed the two-way Allan standard deviation specification of 1.5 x 10( exp -15) on time scales of 2,000 - 10,000 sec, as required by the Cassini GWE (Gravitational Wave Experiment) for two way Doppler tracking.

Naudet, Charles J.

High-Resolution Mesoscale Simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri Flash Flood: Impact of Model Initialization and Land Surface Treatment

High-resolution mesoscale model simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event were performed to test the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation. In this flash flood event, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) produced over 340 mm of rain in roughly 9 hours in some locations. Two different types of model initialization were employed: 1) NCEP global reanalysis with 2.5-degree grid spacing and 12-hour temporal resolution, and 2) Eta reanalysis with 40- km grid spacing and $hour temporal resolution. In addition, two different land surface treatments were considered. A simple land scheme. (SLAB) keeps soil moisture fixed at initial values throughout the simulation, while a more sophisticated land model (PLACE) allows for r interactive feedback. Simulations with high-resolution Eta model initialization show considerable improvement in the intensity of precipitation due to the presence in the initialization of a residual mesoscale convective vortex (hlCV) from a previous MCS. Simulations with the PLACE land model show improved location of heavy precipitation. Since soil moisture can vary over time in the PLACE model, surface energy fluxes exhibit strong spatial gradients. These surface energy flux gradients help produce a strong low-level jet (LLJ) in the correct location. The LLJ then interacts with the cold outflow boundary of the MCS to produce new convective cells. The simulation with both high-resolution model initialization and time-varying soil moisture test reproduces the intensity and location of observed rainfall.

Baker, R. David

Meteorological Aspects of Two Modes of Lightning Triggered Upward Lightning (LTUL) Events in Sprite-Producing MCSs

During the 2013 convective storm season, a high resolution 3-D Lightning Mapping Array was deployed to north central Kansas (Cummins et al, this conference.) In conjunction with fixed and mobile camera systems and electric field mills, this allowed for detailed investigations of lightning induced upward lighting (LTUL) discharges from tall objects in the region, including wind turbines. Also, concurrent observations using a network of low-light cameras deployed over the central U.S. as part of the PhOCAL program detected transient luminous events (TLEs) above the Kansas LMA (KSLMA). During the night of 29-30 May 2013, waves of precipitation associated with several large MCSs traversing Kansas moved through the KSLMA domain. We focus on two LTUL events that exemplify two modes of upward lightning production from tall structures. At 0859Z, 30 May 2013, a nearby + 92 kA CG, with extensive in-cloud branching passing overhead a wind farm, was followed by complex LTUL discharges from four turbines. In addition, a sprite was confirmed by the Bennett, CO SpriteNet camera. The parent flash covered a very large area. It initiated near the MCS convective leading line ~150 km to the south, and traveled into a stratiform precipitation maximum over the KSLMA. Typically when a +CG precedes an LTUL, the triggering component is either 1) the return stroke that traverses the leader network which initially forms near the towers or 2) new negative leader activity that develops once the return stroke reaches the end of the initial leader network that may not have initially been near the tower. In the latter case, the new leader development passes near the towers and triggers upward positive leaders similar to those associated with only an intracloud flash. The +CG return stroke may hit >10 km from the towers and the new leader development may travel extensive distances before getting close enough to the towers to trigger upward lightning. In this case, there was the typical long delay between the +CG return stroke and LTUL initiation (10s to 100s of ms). The parent lightning discharges for both sprites and LTULs have many common aspects and tend to occur in similar meteorological regimes, with the two phenomena often occurring together. An earlier LUTL, at 2320Z, 29 May 2013 was captured at 9900 fps by a Phantom camera in the PhOCAL mobile Lightning Investigation Vehicle (LIV). This discharge, exhibiting numerous recoil leaders, also occurred in a stratiform region some ~50-100 km north of an MCS convective core. While there was no preceding +CG, there was an extensive network of IC channels, one of which passed overhead close to the turbine. These observations are consistent with the ongoing UPLIGHTS studies of LTULs from tall towers in Rapid City. While a +CG is usually involved (~85% of the time), the LTUL occurs because of the associated extensive in cloud components passing over towers. The earlier case without a +CG typifies this second mode where the triggering component is a negative leader associated with the IC activity passing near the towers initiates the upward positive leaders. We will discuss the parent discharges, shown in their meteorological (radar and satellite) context, and attempt to better understand the charge structures present in both the convective and stratiform regions of the MCS. The sprite and its relationship to the parent discharge will similarly be discussed

Lyons, W. A.

The Solar Connection of Enhanced Heavy Ion Charge States in the Interplanetary Medium: Implications for the Flux-Rope Structure of CMEs

We investigated a set of 54 interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) events whose solar sources are very close to the disk center (within +/- 15deg from the central meridian). The ICMEs consisted of 23 magnetic-cloud (MC) events and 31 non-MC events. Our analyses suggest that the MC and non-MC ICMEs have more or less the same eruption characteristics at the Sun in terms of soft X-ray flares and CMEs. Both types have significant enhancements in ion charge states, although the non-MC structures have slightly lower levels of enhancement. The overall duration of charge-state enhancement is also considerably smaller than that in MCs as derived from solar wind plasma and magnetic signatures. We find very good correlation between the Fe and O charge-state measurements and the flare properties such as soft X-ray flare intensity and flare temperature for both MCs and non-MCs. These observations suggest that both MC and non-MC ICMEs are likely to have a flux-rope structure and the unfavorable observational geometry may be responsible for the appearance of non-MC structures at 1 AU. We do not find any evidence for an active region expansion resulting in ICMEs lacking a flux-rope structure because the mechanism of producing high charge states and the flux-rope structure at the Sun is the same for MC and non-MC events.

flux rope

Global analysis and forecasts of carbon monoxide on Mars

Spatial and temporal variations in the Martian carbon monoxide (CO) cycle have been investigated through combining Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) retrievals of carbon monoxide mixing ratio and Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) temperature profiles with a Martian global circulation model (GCM) to produce the first global reanalysis of the Martian CO cycle. The reanalysis reduces the root mean square error between the forecast and CRISM CO retrievals by a factor of 2–4, dependent on the time of year. Forecasts initiated from the reanalysis show an improved match to standalone CRISM CO retrievals from northern winter solstice to northern summer solstice, indicating the benefit of data assimilation in simulating the CO abundance. The northern summer solstice CO minimum between 10°S – 50°S in the CRISM CO retrievals is found to be caused by a suppression of CO-enriched air leaking from the Hellas and Argyre basins, and is also strongly influenced by the amount of carbon dioxide condensing at the time. The GCM is the first reported to simulate the local CO minimum however it is weaker in strength, as CO-enriched air is also released northward in the area of Argyre basin in the GCM because of a shifted boundary between the southern polar vortex and mid-latitudes. The reanalysis, as a result of the assimilation of MCS temperature profiles, indicates that the polar vortex boundary is northward of Argyre basin and hence no northerly transport of CO-enriched air should be present over this location. Differences in local CO abundance between the reanalysis and GCM are also evident in spatio-temporal regions where no nearby CRISM CO retrievals are available as a result of alterations in local circulation and the sublimation/condensation of carbon dioxide through the combined assimilation of CRISM CO retrievals alongside MCS temperature profiles, illustrating how constraints can be imposed indirectly on the CO cycle through the powerful technique of data assimilation.

James A. Holmes

Bridging Current Indirect and Future Direct Estimates of Convective Mass Flux Toward Quantifying the Role of Convective Cores on Anvil Area Time Tendencies

Anvil cloud spatial extent is strongly driven by convective mass flux. However, the lack of convective mass flux observations precludes global analyses of the functional relationship between anvil cloud area growth tendencies and convective areal coverage and vertical mass flux. Partly informed by analyses of a hierarchy of WRF mesoscale convective system (MCS) simulations, in this presentation, we discuss new work on estimating convective mass flux by way of an approach that casts the problem of quantifying convective mass flux into terms related to diabatic heating vertical structure, convective area and tropospheric stability. We demonstrate the usefulness of this approach at the MCS spatial scale via development of a simple, robust model that analytically connects system-scale convective mass flux and anvil cloud area growth rates. We show that the model predicts anvil area size changes in agreement with those observed in a global convective system tracking database (TOOCAN). An additional advantage of this approach for estimating convective mass flux is that it bridges future satellite mission plans for directly observing convective mass flux (e.g., AOS) with longer-record observations made by TRMM, GPM and satellite sounder mission data (the latter used for estimating stability) that, when combined, can be used for inferring convective mass fluxes at the MCS spatial scale spanning slowly changing, diverse environments. An evaluation and bridging of both direct and indirect approaches supports convective process analyses varying over longer time periods in this “era of convection.”

convective mass flux

Bridging current indirect and future direct estimates of convective mass flux toward quantifying the role of convective cores on anvil area time tendencies

Anvil cloud spatial extent is strongly driven by convective mass flux. However, the lack of convective mass flux observations precludes global analyses of the functional relationship between anvil cloud area growth tendencies and convective areal coverage and vertical mass flux. Partly informed by analyses of a hierarchy of WRF mesoscale convective system (MCS) simulations, in this presentation, we discuss new work on estimating convective mass flux by way of an approach that casts the problem of quantifying convective mass flux into terms related to diabatic heating vertical structure, convective area and tropospheric stability. We demonstrate the usefulness of this approach at the MCS spatial scale via development of a simple, robust model that analytically connects system-scale convective mass flux and anvil cloud area growth rates. We show that the model predicts anvil area size changes in agreement with those observed in a global convective system tracking database (TOOCAN). An additional advantage of this approach for estimating convective mass flux is that it bridges future satellite mission plans for directly observing convective mass flux (e.g., AOS) with longer-record observations made by TRMM, GPM and satellite sounder mission data (the latter used for estimating stability) that, when combined, can be used for inferring convective mass fluxes at the MCS spatial scale spanning slowly changing, diverse environments. An evaluation and bridging of both direct and indirect approaches supports convective process analyses varying over longer time periods in this “era of convection.”

convective mass flux

Martian B Storm Genesis and Evolution: Initial Analysis of Thermal Datasets.

Introduction: Dust lifting on Mars likely occurs primarily as a result of the exchange of momentum between the atmosphere and the surface via saltation. During saltation, sand-sized particles are mobilized but do not enter into suspension. When these larger particles fall back to the surface, kinetic energy is transferred to smaller dust particles which are then lofted into suspension in the atmosphere. Depending on the altitude to which dust is lofted, it can have a significant effect on atmospheric temperatures. As a strong absorber and emitter in the infrared, dust can influence atmospheric heating and modify the global circulation and weather on Mars [1,2]. Although dust is present in Mars’ atmosphere throughout the year, the atmosphere is generally dustier during the second half of the year when Mars is near perihelion. Observations reveal that episodic global-scale dust storms and fairly regular regional-scale dust storms are superimposed on a well-defined and highly repeatable seasonal cycle of dust opacity and associated mid-level atmospheric temperature responses. Kass et al. (2016) used 50 Pa temperature observations from MRO/MCS to identify three highly repeatable time periods during which regional dust storms occur, and designated them the “A”, “B” and “C” storms. While “A” and “C” storms have been studied a fair amount to-date, “B” storms have not yet been investigated in detail. This study explores the generation and evolution of the annually recurring regional dust storm known as the “B” storm, which was identified and categorized by Kass et al. (2016) based on 25 km (50 Pa) temperature observations. The B storm is a southern-hemisphere (SH) phenomenon that originates at the cap edge just after perihelion and which reaches peak intensity during the SH summer solstice, Ls 270. It may originate from the cap edge storms that spawn near the edge of the seasonal CO2 cap during retreat, but the mechanisms for B storm genesis have yet to be determined definitively [1]. Methods: We will use observational data sets and a global climate model (GCM) to investigate “B” regional storms. The data analysis component will include the analysis of imagery from MGS/MOC and MRO/MARCI, and spectroscopic data sets of dust and temperatures from MGS/TES and MRO/MCS with the goal of fully characterizing the behavior of these storms. Both MGS and TES provide data well-suited for temperature analysis at 25 km. MCS measures atmospheric temperature, dust extinction, and water ice extinction at 5 km intervals from the surface to about 80 km. TES measured atmospheric temperatures, column dust and water ice opacities, and column water vapor abundances. Measurements made by TES extended from the surface to about 40 km [1]. At the 50 Pa (25 km) level, local dust events usually confined to shallower depths are effectively filtered out of the analysis leaving the regional dust events identifiable by their temperature signatures [1]. Our preliminary analysis makes use of the fact that the brightness temperature at 15 microns (T15 temperature) is a close approximation to observed temperature at 25 km. We first reproduce the zonal mean 50 Pa level temperature plots for MY 29-32 to establish a baseline for our procedures moving forward [1]. Expanding on Kass et al. (2016), we include recent MCS data from MY 33 and 34 as well. Preliminary Analysis: The daytime (3PM) T15 temperatures in Figure 1 indicate: in MY 29, a strong A storm at Ls 240, a B storm at high southern latitudes just after Ls 270, and a C storm at Ls 320; in MY 30, a B storm at Ls 270; in MY 31 & MY 32, a B storm just before Ls 270; in MY 33, a B storm at Ls 270; and in MY 34, a strong A storm in the northern hemisphere at Ls 210, and a B storm around Ls 270 although there is a data gap. For the B storms, each is indicative of lofted dust and resultant warming. The daytime temperature structure illustrates that the B storm occurs annually around Ls 270 and is confined to high southern latitudes. It reaches its peak intensity around SH summer solstice, Ls 270, consistently for all six MY assessed. Since direct solar heating is absent overnight, the nighttime T15 temperatures (Figure 2) are often useful for differentiating the heat signature of direct solar heating from the dynamical response to that heating. However, in the southern polar latitudes at perihelion the sun does not set and direct solar heating remains present throughout the night. Importantly for our study, dust lofted in the B storm experiences this direct heating day and night for the entirety of its lifetime. The B storm expands as far north as -60 latitude and decays in latitudinal extent more gradually than it grows. This feature is less obvious in the nighttime (3AM) T15 temperatures (Figure 2). The temperature signal is stronger at night for MY 30-33. The warm pool is larger in area relative to the background at night in these four cases. This more uniform warming masks the “tail” feature somewhat, such that it is barely noticeable during these years. Unfortunately, gaps in MCS data in MY 29 and 34 prevent confirmation of the tail feature during those years, however, the B storm temperature signature follows a very different pattern than that described for MY 30-33. MY 29 and 34 appear to show smaller centers of warming at night and larger centers of warming during the day. This is in opposition to that previously described for MY 30-33. Conclusions and Future Work: We will continue investigating the heat signatures of B storms by looking at the total column heating as recorded by TES. We will also look at lower altitudes for patterns that may describe the relationship between B storms and the cap edge storms that develop while the seasonal cap is retreating. In the future, we will use GCM simulations to determine the atmospheric and thermo-dynamic conditions associated with these storms.

Courtney Marylou Batterson

Pressure Deficit in Gale Crater and a Larger Northern Polar Cap After the MY34 Global Dust Storm

We describe the model-independent analysis technique of Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) pressure and Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) data in de la Torre Juárez et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169945479.90436599/v1) that compared multiple years of surface pressures on Gale before, during, and after the Global Dust Storm of Mars Year 34. The analysis found (a) representative pressure scale heights over Gale; (b) that the storm was followed by a pressure deficit at Gale; (c) the following C storms did not eliminate the deficit; (d) changes in the duration of the polar caps condensation seasons, with an early start of the North Polar (NP) ice cap growing season the year before the Great Dust Storm (GDS) and a late signature of the end of the expansion season thereafter, changes consistent with a larger growth phase of the NP cap; (e) MCS observed a larger than usual NP cap; and (f) cold temperature anomalies over the NP and warm over the Southern Pole after the storm. We also show that the analysis of observed MSL pressure data alone filters out effects on the pressure signal that are attributable to dynamical and orographic processes in a recent model analysis that makes similar interpretations as our 2019 study. One additional Mars year of observations is included to eliminate early concerns about sensor drifts. Noting that a similar NP anomaly was observed with MCS data after the last early GDS in MY25, and not the later GDS of MY27, the results suggest a possible unique effect of early GDSs.

Manuel de la Torre Juárez

On the relationship between precipitation extreme and local temperature over eastern China based on convection permitting simulations: roles of different moisture processes and precipitation types

The Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling, which indicates a roughly 7% increase in saturated water vapor per 1 °C increase in temperature, can serve as a strong constraint linking the intensity of precipitation extremes and local temperature. However, the relationship between precipitation extreme and local temperature (referred to as the PE-T relationship) does not always follow the CC scaling and is highly dependent on climate regimes. In this study, we investigated the impacts of different moisture processes and precipitation types on the PE-T relationship over eastern China during the summertime based on convection-permitting model simulations. Consistent with observations, the simulated intensity of precipitation extremes increases with temperature at a rate close to CC (double-CC) scaling below (above) 20 °C. When the temperature exceeds 25 °C, precipitation intensity starts to drop. Precipitation extremes are mainly contributed by the stratiform, MCS (i.e., mesoscale convective system) convective, and non-MCS convective precipitation at low (< 20 °C), medium (20–25 °C), and high (> 25 °C) temperatures, respectively, suggesting that the double-CC scaling occurs when convective types become dominant, while the negative scaling at high temperatures is attributed to the reduced horizontal scale of convection. Corresponding to the reduced intensity of precipitation at high temperatures, there are stronger divergence and subsidence in the low-level atmosphere, which is probably caused by the net cooling associated with the enhanced melting and evaporation of falling hydrometeors due to the lower relative humidity in the low-level atmosphere. Overall, our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the temperature dependence of precipitation extremes in eastern China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Micro-cold Spray Deposition of YSZ Films from Ultrafine Powders Using a Pressure Relief Channel Nozzle

Abstract The use of ultrafine powders in the micro-cold spray (MCS) process, also referred to as the aerosol deposition method, typically results in porous and/or poorly adhering films because the particles do not impact at a high enough velocity for sufficient plastic deformation and interparticle bonding to occur. Under typical operating conditions, particles < 100 nm accelerate to high velocities but then are slowed by the stagnant gas in the bow shock that forms just upstream of the substrate. Using larger particles reduces particle slowing, but large particles can cause erosion of the film at high impact velocity, decreasing deposition efficiency. In this study, a pressure relief channel nozzle using helium as a carrier gas is proposed such that high-velocity deposition of yttria-stabilized zirconia particles as small as 10 nm in diameter is possible. This is well below the size range of powders previously used for MCS. The proposed nozzle design increases impact velocities for 10, 20, and 50 nm particles by ~ 880, 560, and 160 m/s, respectively, when compared to a conventional nozzle. Experimental deposition of ultrafine 8YSZ powder shows that the pressure relief channel nozzle results in lower porosity and more uniform deposits, with a ∼ 186% increase in deposition efficiency.

Materials Science

Multiple Coulomb scattering in acrylic of a 221.3 MeV therapeutic proton beam

Measurements of multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS) distributions for 221.3 MeV therapeutic protons are presented using a novel detector system comprised of a thin scintillator, a pellicle mirror, and a digital camera. The MCS distributions were characterized for three acrylic phantoms of varying lengths and for two biological density-equivalent phantoms simulating bone and muscle. Additionally, beam profiles were measured across an energy range of 80.3–221.3 MeV in 20 MeV increments. The observed energy dependence of the photon yields is consistent with the tabulated stopping power values. Finally, the experimental results are benchmarked against Geant4 simulations, demonstrating consistent agreement and validating the capability of the detector system for radiology measurements.

Digital camera

Mechanisms Behind the Long‐Distance Diurnal Offshore Precipitation Propagation in Northwestern South America

Abstract Northwestern South America (NWSA) is the rainiest region on Earth, with diurnal precipitation exhibiting extensive westward offshore propagation of up to about 1,200 km in boreal spring (March‐May). The diurnal offshore precipitation propagation begins slowly (3–10 m s −1 ) near the coast of NWSA (<200 km) but accelerates significantly (∼20 m s −1 ) and shows an afternoon enhancement far from the coast (>400 km). However, the driving mechanisms behind this long‐distance precipitation propagation remain unclear. Using a new cloud tracking and classification data set, we found that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the dominant precipitation contributors in the offshore region of NWSA. Cloud tracking shows that the long‐distance propagation and the afternoon enhancement of diurnal precipitation primarily originate from MCSs initiated in the early morning, either over open oceans or from the coast of Central America. Composite tendency analysis shows that MCSs initiated near the coast of Central America have significant upward cooling and moistening signals starting from the surface before initiation. Further analysis of surface diurnal perturbation fields indicates that the land breeze is the primary driving mechanism for MCS initiation. Conversely, for MCSs initiated over open oceans, a significant downward cooling signal from 400 hPa is observed ∼7 hr before initiation, corresponding to the passage of diurnal gravity waves emitted from the Andes. Additionally, our findings highlight the critical role of lower and mid‐level moisture conditions in MCS initiation, alongside the influence of gravity waves.

Hu, Jingyi [Department of Meteorology and Atmosphe

Spatiotemporal Variations in the Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over Indian Monsoon Zone

Here, this study examines cloud and precipitation properties of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the Indian monsoon zone using 6 years of high-resolution satellite-based tracking data. MCSs exhibit strong regional and seasonal variations, peaking during the summer monsoon (June–September). Concentrated along a southeast-northwest band of the monsoon trough, MCS contribute 40%–70% of total precipitation and predominantly move westward at an average speed of 6.3 m s -1 . Long-lived MCSs (> 40 hr), although 10 times less frequent than short-lived MCSs (5–20 hr), produce 2–3 times more rainfall. Longer MCS lifespans and higher rainfall are associated with stronger deep-layer wind shear and enhanced lower free-tropospheric moisture at initiation. Land and ocean MCSs exhibit distinct diurnal cycles. Most land-based MCSs initiate around 16 LT and mature at 18 LT, whereas Bay of Bengal (BoB) MCSs initiate between 04 and 06 LT and peak by 14 LT. Convective precipitations from MCSs significantly surpasses that from non-MCSs systems, emphasizing their critical role in intense monsoon rainfall. Short- and long-lived MCSs showed distinct lifecycle evolution. Long-lived MCSs over the BoB show 37% larger cold-cloud shields, 44% larger precipitation feature areas, and 33% higher rain rates than their land counterparts, yielding 67% more total rainfall. These BoB MCSs also grow faster and experience more frequent cloud mergers early in their lifecycle. These findings offer critical insights into monsoonal MCSs lifecycle evolution, providing observational constraints for improving model simulations of monsoonal convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Influences on Deep Convective Upscale Growth Rate in Central Argentina From a Convection‐Permitting Simulation

This study uses a convection‐permitting model simulation to describe the environmental conditions under which convective upscale growth occurs in central Argentina, particularly examining environmental parameters when deep convection initially forms that could differentiate the rate of initial upscale growth. Simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are separated into slow and rapid growth by the rate of spatial growth from convection initiation until reaching the MCS scale. A low‐level jet (LLJ) is found more frequently near the deep convection that experiences rapid growth to an MCS, but its presence alone is not predictive of rapid growth. Using spatially‐averaged parameters, we find that rapid growth to MCSs also occurs in environments that are significantly more thermodynamically favorable with greater low‐level moisture and instability. Fewer significant differences are found in the kinematic environment with only the 0–2 km vertical wind shear magnitude being significantly larger for rapid growth MCSs compared to slow growth MCSs, potentially related to LLJs often peaking near this height. When focusing only on MCSs with the slowest and fastest growth rates, elevated‐layer shear is significantly smaller for very rapid growth MCSs, suggesting elevated‐layer shear may help discriminate between the upper and lower bounds of growth rate. Finally, when upscale growth occurs near the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) with a LLJ present, rapid growth is also supported by favorable wind shear orientation. However, this does not hold for upscale growth occurring away from the SDC, highlighting the importance of interpreting shear direction relative to the orientation of features initiating deep convection.

Sasaki, Clayton R. S. [Univ. of Washington, Seattl

An Optimized Parameterization of Sub‐Grid Scale Advection for Convection Permitting Models

Convection‐permitting models (CPMs) explicitly resolve deep convection yet under‐resolve the organized lateral exchanges among drafts and their environment that control entrainment/detrainment, precipitation efficiency, and mesoscale structure. In this work, we introduce the Optimized Advection Scheme (OAS), which introduces a small rotation of the Cartesian frame of reference for the horizontal winds relative to other variables used in advection that induces cross‐gradient transport to mimic under‐resolved convective mixing. The rotation angle is selected to minimize the Kullback–Leibler divergence between the simulated and satellite observed precipitation intensity distributions, yielding a physically consistent perturbation that is computationally inexpensive and portable. Optimized Advection Scheme is implemented in WRF and evaluated over Amazon (April 2014). It shifts precipitation–precipitable‐water joint distributions toward lighter rain, reduces overly intense rates, and improves mesoscale convective system (MCS) lifetime and propagation. Mechanistically, the added cross‐gradient transport promotes convective detrainment and environmental mixing, which cools and moistens the mid‐troposphere, weakens downward momentum transport, alleviates excessive downwelling shortwave biases, and warms the surface temperature. The optimized rotation angle yields comparable improvements at 4‐km and 1‐km grid spacing, demonstrating resolution‐independent benefits across the CPM gray zone. By targeting the dynamical root of under‐mixed convective circulations, rather than tuning model microphysics or closures, OAS delivers robust, scale‐aware improvements in precipitation statistics, cloud vertical structure, and characteristics of MCS (MCSs), offering a practical pathway to more reliable CPM simulations for weather and climate applications.

CPM

Scalable Risk Assessment of Rare Events in Power Systems With Uncertain Wind Generation and Loads

Risk assessment of rare events has become increasingly important in power system planning and operation with the increasing integration of renewable energy and the presence of system uncertainties. However, quantifying the risk posed by rare events via the traditional method, i.e., Monte Carlo sampling (MCS), incurs substantial computational expense stemming from the vast ensemble of power flow simulations. To accelerate the assessment, this paper proposes a Deep Neural Network (DNN)-kernelized vector-valued Gaussian Process (VVGP) approach with excellent computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy. Consequently, serving as a surrogate model for the power flow solver, the DNN-kernelized VVGP enables significantly faster but accurate risk assessment compared to the power flow solver. The developed surrogate model evaluates low-order N - k events that contain more than 90% instances by adeptly capturing the topological features while the high-order N - k events are assessed via a power flow solver, thereby striking a balance between computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification accuracy. Moreover, the model incorporates a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier to resample concerning low-probability tail events to counteract the biases potentially introduced during the DNN-kernelized VVGP evaluations. Simulations conducted on the modified IEEE 24-bus, 118-bus, and European 1354-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method maintains the accuracy benchmark set by MCS while significantly reducing computational demands in large-scale power systems as compared to other state-of-the-art methods.

17 WIND ENERGY