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NASA NTRS2017

Early Season Large-Area Winter Crop Mapping Using MODIS NDVI Data, Growing Degree Days Information and a Gaussian Mixture Model

Knowledge on geographical location and distribution of crops at global, national and regional scales is an extremely valuable source of information applications. Traditional approaches to crop mapping using remote sensing data rely heavily on reference or ground truth data in order to train/calibrate classification models. As a rule, such models are only applicable to a single vegetation season and should be recalibrated to be applicable for other seasons. This paper addresses the problem of early season large-area winter crop mapping using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series and growing degree days (GDD) information derived from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) product. The model is based on the assumption that winter crops have developed biomass during early spring while other crops (spring and summer) have no biomass. As winter crop development is temporally and spatially non-uniform due to the presence of different agro-climatic zones, we use GDD to account for such discrepancies. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is applied to discriminate winter crops from other crops (spring and summer). The proposed method has the following advantages: low input data requirements, robustness, applicability to global scale application and can provide winter crop maps 1.5-2 months before harvest. The model is applied to two study regions, the State of Kansas in the US and Ukraine, and for multiple seasons (2001-2014). Validation using the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Data Layer (CDL) for Kansas and ground measurements for Ukraine shows that accuracies of greater than 90% can be achieved in mapping winter crops 1.5-2 months before harvest. Results also show good correspondence to official statistics with average coefficients of determination R(exp. 2) greater than 0.85.

mixture model↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Effect of Firn-Aquifer Drainage on the Greenland Subglacial System or Subglacial Efficiency and Storage Modified by the Temporal Pattern of High-Elevation Meltwater Input

Ice flow in marginal region of the Greenland Ice Sheet dynamically responds to summer melting as surface meltwater is routed through the supraglacial hydrologic system to the bed of the ice sheet via crevasses and moulins. Given the expected increases in surface melt production and extent, and the potential for high elevation surface-to-bed connections, it is imperative to understand how meltwater delivered to the bed from different high-elevation supraglacial storage features affects the evolution of the subglacial hydrologic system and associated ice dynamics. Here, we use the two-dimensional subglacial hydrologic model, GLaDS, which includes distributed and channelized water flow, to test how the subglacial system of an idealized outlet glacier responds to cases of high-elevation firn-aquifer-type and supraglacial-lake-type englacial drainage over the course of 5 years. Model outputs driven by these high elevation drainage types are compared to steady-state model results, where the subglacial system only receives the 1980- 2016 mean MERRA-2 runoff via low-elevation moulins. Across all experiments, the subglacial hydrologic system displays inter-annual memory, resulting in multiyear declines in subglacial pressure during the onset of seasonal melting and growth of subglacial channels. The gradual addition of water in firn-aquifer-type drainage scenarios resulted in small increases in subglacial water storage but limited changes in subglacial efficiency and channelization. Rapid, supraglacial- lake-type drainage resulted in short-term local increases in subglacial water pressure and storage, which gave way to spatially extensive decreases in subglacial pressure and downstream channelization. These preliminary results suggest that the character of high-elevation englacial drainage can have a strong, and possibly outsized, control on subglacial efficiency throughout the ablation zone. Therefore, understanding both how high elevation meltwater is stored supraglacially and the probability of crevassing at high elevations will play an important role in how the subglacial system, proglacial discharge and ice motion will respond to future increases in surface melt production and runoff.

Andrews, Lauren C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Blowing Snow Sublimation and Transport over Antarctica from 11 Years of CALIPSO Observations

Blowing snow processes commonly occur over the earth's ice sheets when the 10 mile wind speed exceeds a threshold value. These processes play a key role in the sublimation and redistribution of snow thereby influencing the surface mass balance. Prior field studies and modeling results have shown the importance of blowing snow sublimation and transport on the surface mass budget and hydrological cycle of high-latitude regions. For the first time, we present continent-wide estimates of blowing snow sublimation and transport over Antarctica for the period 2006-2016 based on direct observation of blowing snow events. We use an improved version of the blowing snow detection algorithm developed for previous work that uses atmospheric backscatter measurements obtained from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) lidar aboard the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) satellite. The blowing snow events identified by CALIPSO and meteorological fields from MERRA-2 are used to compute the blowing snow sublimation and transport rates. Our results show that maximum sublimation occurs along and slightly inland of the coastline. This is contrary to the observed maximum blowing snow frequency which occurs over the interior. The associated temperature and moisture reanalysis fields likely contribute to the spatial distribution of the maximum sublimation values. However, the spatial pattern of the sublimation rate over Antarctica is consistent with modeling studies and precipitation estimates. Overall, our results show that the 2006-2016 Antarctica average integrated blowing snow sublimation is about 393 +/- 196 Gt yr(exp -1), which is considerably larger than previous model-derived estimates. We find maximum blowing snow transport amount of 5 Mt km-1 yr(exp -1) over parts of East Antarctica and estimate that the average snow transport from continent to ocean is about 3.7 Gt yr(exp -1). These continent-wide estimates are the first of their kind and can be used to help model and constrain the surface mass budget over Antarctica.

Antarctica Sublimation Ice-sheet↗
NASA NTRS2017

New Perspectives on Blowing Snow Transport, Sublimation, and Layer Thermodynamic Structure over Antarctica

Blowing snow over Antarctica is a widespread and frequent event. Satellite remote sensing using lidar has shown that blowing snow occurs over 70% of the time over large areas of Antarctica in winter. The transport and sublimation of blowing snow are important terms in the ice sheet mass balance equation and the latter is also an important part of the hydrological cycle. Until now the only way to estimate the magnitude of these processes was through model parameterization. We present a technique that uses direct satellite observations of blowing snow and model (MERRA-2) temperature and humidity fields to compute both transport and sublimation of blowing snow over Antarctica for the period 2006 to 2016. The results show a larger annual continent-wide integrated sublimation than current published estimates and a significant transport of snow from continent to ocean. The talk will also include the lidar backscatter structure of blowing snow layers that often reach heights of 200 to 300 m as well as the first dropsonde measurements of temperature, moisture and wind through blowing snow layers.

Palm, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2018

The GMAO Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Atmospheric Data Assimilation System: Version 2.0

This document describes the implementation and usage of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (Hybrid EVADAS). Its aim is to provide comprehensive guidance to users of GEOS ADAS interested in experimenting with its hybrid functionalities. The document is also aimed at providing a short summary of the state-of-science in this release of the hybrid system. As explained here, the ensemble data assimilation system (EnADAS) mechanism added to GEOS ADAS to enable hybrid data assimilation applications has been introduced to the pre-existing machinery of GEOS in the most non-intrusive possible way. Only very minor changes have been made to the original scripts controlling GEOS ADAS with the objective of facilitating its usage by both researchers and the GMAO's near-real-time Forward Processing applications. In a hybrid scenario two data assimilation systems run concurrently in a two-way feedback mode such that: the ensemble provides background ensemble perturbations required by the ADAS deterministic (typically high resolution) hybrid analysis; and the deterministic ADAS provides analysis information for recentering of the EnADAS analyses and information necessary to ensure that observation bias correction procedures are consistent between both the deterministic ADAS and the EnADAS. The nonintrusive approach to introducing hybrid capability to GEOS ADAS means, in particular, that previously existing features continue to be available. Thus, not only is this upgraded version of GEOS ADAS capable of supporting new applications such as Hybrid 3D-Var, 3D-EnVar, 4D-EnVar and Hybrid 4D-EnVar, it remains possible to use GEOS ADAS in its traditional 3D-Var mode which has been used in both MERRA and MERRA-2. Furthermore, as described in this document, GEOS ADAS also supports a configuration for exercising a purely ensemble-based assimilation strategy which can be fully decoupled from its variational component. We should point out that Release 1.0 of this document was made available to GMAO in mid-2013, when we introduced Hybrid 3D-Var capability to GEOS ADAS. This initial version of the documentation included a considerably different state-of-science introductory section but many of the same detailed description of the mechanisms of GEOS EnADAS. We are glad to report that a few of the desirable Future Works listed in Release 1.0 have now been added to the present version of GEOS EnADAS. These include the ability to exercise an Ensemble Prediction System that uses the ensemble analyses of GEOS EnADAS and (a very early, but functional version of) a tool to support Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity and Observation Impact applications.

Todling, Ricardo↗
NASA NTRS2018

Characterizing Differences in the Aerosol Plume and Cloud Structure over Ascension Island During the 2016 and 2017 Biomass Burning Seasons

Marine boundary layer clouds, including the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, are poorly represented in numerical weather prediction and general circulation models. In many cases, the complex physical relationships between marine boundary cloud morphology and the environmental conditions in which the clouds exist are not well understood. Such uncertainties arise in the presence of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean. It is likely that the absorbing and heating properties of these aerosols influence the microphysical composition and macrophysical arrangement of marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus in this region; however, this has yet to be quantified. The deployment of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility #1 (AMF1) in support of LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) provided a unique opportunity to collect observations of cloud and aerosol properties during two consecutive biomass burning seasons during July through October of 2016 and 2017 over Ascension Island (7.96 S, 14.35 W). Through the use of AMF1 observations, the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and back trajectories from the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), it will be demonstrated that differences in the atmospheric circulation during the two years result in varying aerosol conditions over Ascension Island. When the aerosol plume is overhead, the aerosol loading is higher during the 2016 season as a result of a weaker subtropical high-pressure system. Furthermore, the aerosol plume originates from central Africa in 2016, but further south in 2017. Contrasts in the season-to-season and day-to-day aerosol loading are used to categorize boundary layer cloud and sub-cloud turbulence measurements above Ascension Island using the AMF1 Doppler lidar and cloud radar.

Collow, Allison B. Marquardt↗
NASA NTRS2018

Recovery of the Disrupted Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

There occurred a unique and significant disruption of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015-16. Here we document the return of the QBO to its normal downward phase speed and period based on Singapore soundings, MERRA-2 re-analysis (Modern Era Retrospective Reanalysis for Research and Applications), and a simple QBO model. Daily averaged zonal winds from 100-10 hPa are used to characterized the behavior of the QBO's amplitude and phase as seen in the first two EOFs (Empirical Orthogonal Functions). These EOFs capture the QBO structure and evolution during the pre-disruption, disruption, and post-disruption times. Results show that the amplitude and phase returned to normal by June 2016, however the post-disruption QBO phase was delayed relative to the pre-disruption phase by four tenths of a QBO cycle (~11 months). A rapid, seasonal, phase shift of this magnitude is shown to be unique in the QBO observational record.

Coy, Lawrence↗
NASA NTRS2018

Portable, Low-Cost, Column Carbon Dioxide and Methane Measurements for Validating Satellite Observations in Remote Locations

We present a low-cost (~$10K per instrument), portable solution to ground-based validation of satellite observations for difficult to reach locations with precisions of 1 ppm XCO2 and 10 ppb XCH4 for hourly data products. While Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) is the gold-standard for ground validation, there are locations where a ground column validation data point would be useful but conditions are not conducive to a permanent station. Examples include wetlands, thawing permafrost, the tropics, the Amazon, sub-Saharan Africa, as well as locations without a power grid or with geopolitical conflict. In addition, the low-cost and portability mean a geographical region can be studied in depth with multiple instruments. This passive, sun-pointing instrument is a miniaturized, laser heterodyne radiometer (mini-LHR) that has been under development by our team since 2009. It can be operated either in tandem with AERONET (a global network of 500 instruments that measure aerosol optical depth), or as a stand-alone instrument with a low-cost (~$3K), light-weight sun tracker. One of the main benefits of the mini-LHR is that it can quickly reach remote locations and provide a validation measurement even if there is limited or no infrastructure at the site. The instrument weighs ~10 lbs, fits into a backpack, and is powered by two folding solar panels and a battery pack. In clear conditions, the instrument can be set-up in under an hour. Portability means that mini-LHRs can be easily moved for side-by-side comparisons with other mini-LHRs and with TCCON which simplifies assessing instrument bias as well as accuracy. Like TCCON, the mini-LHR points directly at the sun with a narrow field-of-view and is its insensitivity to cloud and aerosol scattering that is common to nadir-pointing passive satellite approaches. Here we present a collection of sample data sets to demonstrate performance from locations that vary in climate, altitude, solar zenith angle, hours of sun per day, etc., as well as data from side-by-side TCCON comparisons. Retrievals of CO2 and CH4 were completed using the NASA/Goddard's Planetary Spectrum Generator (PSG) that incorporates meteorological inputs from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) data set.

Wilson, Emily W.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Development of the GEOS-MIT gcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MIT-GCM (General Circulation Model)) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies. Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (approximately 1/8 degrees) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a latitude-longitude-cap-1080 (approximately 1/12 degrees) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Development of the New GEOS-MITgcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation System

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MITgcm) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies.Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8 deg) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12 deg) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗
NASA NTRS2018

A New Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Studying Air-Sea Interactions and Coupled Data Assimilation

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MITgcm) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies.Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8°) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12°) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗
NASA NTRS2018

Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Project Assessment Report for Version 4 of the L4_SM Data Product

This report provides an assessment of Version 4 of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, released on 14 June 2018. The assessment includes comparisons of L4_SM soil moisture and temperature estimates with in situ measurements from core validation sites and sparse networks. The assessment further includes a global evaluation of the internal diagnostics from the ensemble-based data assimilation system that is used to generate the L4_SM product, including observation-minus-forecast (O-F) brightness temperature residuals and soil moisture analysis increments.Together, the core validation site comparisons and the statistics of the assimilation diagnostics areconsidered primary validation methodologies for the L4_SM product. Comparisons against in situ measurements from regional-scale sparse networks are considered a secondary validation methodology because such in situ measurements are subject to upscaling errors from the point-scale to the grid-cell scale of the data product.The Version 4 L4_SM product benefits from an improved land surface modeling system and from retrospective surface meteorological forcing data that are as consistent as possible with the present-day datain terms of their climatology. Specifically, the model changes include revised parameters and parameterizations for (i) the surface energy balance, (ii) recharge from below of the model's surface excess reservoir, and (iii) the snow depletion curve. Updated ancillary inputs include improved datasets for landcover, topography, and vegetation height. The Version 4 algorithm further includes a revised approach to precipitation corrections that improves the precipitation climatology in Africa and the high-latitudes. Moreover, for system calibration the model is forced retrospectively with MERRA-2 reanalysis data, which are more consistent with the near-real time GEOS forward processing (FP) data used during the SMAP period than the retrospective GEOS data that were available for previous L4_SM versions. An analysis of the time-average surface and root zone soil moisture shows that the global pattern ofarid and humid regions is captured by the Version 4 L4_SM estimates. Owing to the changes in the landsurface modeling system, surface soil moisture is typically drier by several volumetric percent in Version 4 compared to Version 3, whereas root zone soil moisture is wetter in Version 4 in some regions and drierin others. Because of these climatological differences, the Version 3 and Version 4 products should not be combined into a single dataset for use in applications.Results from the core validation site comparisons indicate that Version 4 of the L4_SM data product meets the self-imposed L4_SM accuracy requirement, which is formulated in terms of the RMSE after removal of the long-term mean difference (ubRMSE). The overall ubRMSE of the 3-hourly L4_SM dataat the 9 km scale is 0.039 m3 m-3 for surface soil moisture and 0.029 m3 m-3 for root zone soil moisture,below the 0.04 m3 m-3 requirement. The L4_SM estimates are an improvement over estimates from a model-only Nature Run version 7.2 (NRv7.2), which demonstrates the beneficial impact of the SMAP brightness temperature data. Overall, L4_SM surface and root zone soil moisture estimates are more skillful than NRv7.2 estimates, with statistically significant improvements at the 5% level for surface soil moisture R and anomaly R values. Results from comparisons of the L4_SM product to i

Reichle, Rolf H.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Recent Rainfall Decline in West Africa Due to Enhanced Biomass Burning and Dust Emission

Rainfall in West Africa during boreal summer is primarily controlled by the low-level southerly monsoon flow that transports moisture from the Gulf of Guinea to the region and the African Easterly Jet that modulates the convective systems. However, the role of aerosols in rainfall variability of this region, despite the large emissions of dust and black carbon in Africa, is not well-understood. Our study reveals a decline in precipitation over Southern West Africa (SWA) in the past two decades that its trend and interannual variability present an indirect relationship with the aerosols loadings. Examining the local and remote sources of aerosols, we found that the latter have a larger contribution. We have used MERRA-2 large scale atmospheric dynamics and physics data to determine the mechanisms responsible for aerosol-rainfall interactions in the region. Our results have important implications for the people and ecosystem as the increasing rates of land use change, deforestation and urbanization in the continent are expected to enhance the aerosols. This will result in an increase in the frequency and intensity of the extreme events including droughts.

Dezfuli, Amin↗
NASA NTRS2018

Enabling Reanalysis Research Using the Collaborative Reanalysis Technical Environment (CREATE)

Modern atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis are valuable assets for atmospheric research and climate monitoring (Kalnay et al. 1996). Now that most reanalysis records are more than 36 years long, the data have become more useful for climate modeling research (Dole et al. 2008). For investigators who need to use multiple reanalysis, a common challenge is that the data are distributed at various sites and often in different formats. The NASA CREATE system provides access to the data in one location in a standard format (one variable per file and standardized metadata in the CMIP5 style; see Table 1 for a list of the key acronyms used in this paper). The collection includes monthly and 6-hourly data from the seven major atmospheric reanalysis: CFSR (Saha et al. 2010), ERA-Interim (Dee et al. 2011), MERRA (Rienecker et al. 2011), MERRA-2 (Gelaro et al. 2017), JRA-25 (Onogi et al. 2007), JRA-55 (Kobayashi et al. 2014), and 20CRv2c (Compo et al. 2011). An ancillary portion of CREATE includes eight ocean reanalysis: NCEP CFSR, CMCC C-GLORSv5 (Storto et al. 2016), ECMWF ORAS4 (Balmaseda et al.2013), ECMWF ORAP5.0 (Zuo et al. 2015), University of Hamburg GECCO2 (Köhl 2015), GFDL ECDA (Zhang et al. 2007), NOAA GODAS (Saha et al. 2010), and MOVE/MRI.COM-G2i (Toyoda et al. 2016). The ocean state variables were similarly reformatted but were then also regridded onto a common horizontal and vertical grid. This approach facilitated the calculation of an ensemble average and spread that is also published alongside the native gridded data. A third reanalysis product is a global hourly 0.5° land surface air temperature dataset constructed by Wang and Zeng (2013). All three datasets are distributed through the ESGF in a format consistent with the CMIP style described by Cinquini et al. (2014).

Potter, Gerald L.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Intercomparison of Precipitation Estimates over the Arctic Ocean and Its Peripheral Seas from Reanalyses

Precipitation over the Arctic Ocean has a significant impact on the basin-scale freshwater and energy budgets but is one of the most poorly constrained variables in atmospheric reanalyses. Precipitation controls the snow cover on sea ice, which impedes the exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere, inhibiting sea ice growth. Thus, accurate precipitation amounts are needed to inform sea ice modeling, especially for the production of thickness estimates from satellite altimetry freeboard data. However, obtaining a quantitative estimate of the precipitation distribution in the Arctic is notoriously difficult because of a number of factors, including a lack of reliable, long-term in situ observations; difficulties in remote sensing over sea ice; and model biases in temperature and moisture fields and associated uncertainty of modeled cloud microphysical processes in the polar regions. Here, we compare precipitation estimates over the Arctic Ocean from eight widely used atmospheric reanalyses over the period 2000–16 (nominally the ‘‘new Arctic’’). We find that the magnitude, frequency, and phase of precipitation vary drastically, although interannual variability is similar. Reanalysis-derived precipitation does not increase with time as expected; however, an increasing trend of higher fractions of liquid precipitation (rainfall) is found. When compared with drifting ice mass balance buoys, three reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and NCEP R2) produce realistic magnitudes and temporal agreement with observed precipitation events, while two products [MERRA, version 2 (MERRA-2), and CFSR] show large, implausible magnitudes in precipitation events. All the reanalyses tend to produce overly frequent Arctic precipitation. Future work needs to be undertaken to determine the specific factors in reanalyses that contribute to these discrepancies in the new Arctic.

Mcpartland, Linette N.↗
NASA NTRS2018

TPSAS-NF1676L-32099-DND

This talk provides a short overview of the new POWER web site that provides data parameters to energy sector societal benefit areas from NASA research projects. The NASA research projects include the GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget project, the CERES Fast Shortwave and Longwave radiative flux project (FLASHFlux) and NASA Goddard's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) MERRA-2 atmospheric reanalysis. Data products are customized to the energy industry and make products available from the daily time scale to long-term climatological averages. The web services allow uses to choose multiple parameters and obtain the data in multiple file formats. This short talk is designed to be delivered at the NASA booth area at the 2018 Fall American Geophysical Union conference.

Paul W Stackhouse, Jr.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-26990-DND

The warm phase ENSO event (El Nino) of 2015/2016 produced significant perturbations to the Tropical Pacific, from sea surface to tropical tropopause and above. Although there have been 3 El Ninos during the modern "A-Train" era, the most recent El Nino started earlier in the year, was located farther west and was stronger than those of 2006/7 and 2009/10. Using A-Train observations, we show that during the 2015/16 El Nino the center of convective activity moved from the tropical western Pacific (TWP) to the central Pacific, just to the east of the dateline. This caused a record amount of cloud ice to occur near or above the environmental cold-point tropopause. Coincidently there was a large positive anomaly in tropical lower stratospheric water vapor, warming of the tropopause over the TWP, and changes to the stratospheric QBO. Using ten+ years of A-Train data and the MERRA-2 reanalysis fields, we explore the observed relationships between the 3D patterns of cloud ice, water vapor, ozone, aerosols and other trace gases in the tropical Pacific, and correlations with the ENSO and QBO cycles.

Melody A. Avery↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA POWER: Providing Analysis-Ready, Cloud-Optimized Data for AI /ML Training and Applications in Earth Science

As global demand for sustainable development grows, the integration of Earth Observation (EO) data into decision making frameworks has become a primary objective for the scientific community. The NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project serves as a bridge between NASA EO data and the specialized needs of the renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure and agroclimatology communities. In this poster presentation we will present an overview of POWER data products and services along with its use in diverse research to decision-making workflows. By providing over 40 years of high-resolution historical, hourly and daily solar and meteorological data, POWER transforms satellite observations and global model reanalysis into actionable, Analysis-Ready Dataset (ARD). Currently, the project delivers over 250 industry-friendly parameters to the users from different NASA datasets like CERES SYN1Deg, MERRA-2, and IMERG alongside downscaled CMIP6 climate model data, fulfilling over 16 million requests from 50,000 unique users monthly. To ensure data quality and traceability, these parameters are rigorously validated against the ground-based observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) – these results will be discussed in the presentation. A newly introduced web-based PaRameter Uncertainty ViEwer (PRUVE) tool will be presented that provides an online validation platform to the users that benchmarks satellite-based and assimilation data products against these surface measurements. To reduce technical barriers to data adoption, POWER data is accessible through RESTful APIs, ESRI ArcGIS Image Services, a web-based Data Access Viewer tool, allowing users to visualize, validate and apply the dataset. For efficient data delivery POWER data is cloud-optimized into Zarr datastore accessible through NASA managed Amazon S3 ensures high-performance allowing users to integrate EO directly into operational pipelines. These customized services will be presented. Use cases from application will be presented from the energy sector - such as for design of generation systems, performance monitoring of solar power plants, in infrastructure sector- optimizing building energy efficiency and thermal comfort, in agriculture – such as driving crop simulation and yield forecasting models to enable climate resilient farming. Furthermore, the shift toward machine learning (ML) in EO research that has positioned POWER as a key provider for training datasets which will be discussed. Use-cases will be presented to showcase how NASA data is enabling the development of predictive tools for climate variability and resource management. The poster will present POWER’s future plans including technology development to enhance data traceability and reproducibility and improving I/O performance to support the rapid integration of new EO products, ensuring that POWER remains a robust scalable backend for the evolving landscape of AI-driven Earth Science. Additionally, POWER is developing an AI Agent and an MCP-Server to enable industry AI-Agentic workflows.

Neha Khadka↗