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DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Correction Model of the Winter Clear-Sky Temperature Bias over the Arctic Sea Ice in Atmospheric Reanalyses

Atmospheric reanalyses are widely used to estimate the past atmospheric near-surface state over sea ice. They provide boundary conditions for sea ice and ocean numerical simulations and relevant information for studying polar variability and anthropogenic climate change. Previous research revealed the existence of large near-surface temperature biases (mostly warm) over the Arctic sea ice in the current generation of atmospheric reanalyses, which is linked to a poor representation of the snow over the sea ice and the stably stratified boundary layer in the forecast models used to produce the reanalyses. These errors can compromise the employment of reanalysis products in support of polar research. Here, we train a fully connected neural network that learns from remote sensing infrared temperature observations to correct the existing generation of uncoupled atmospheric reanalyses (ERA5, JRA-55) based on a set of sea ice and atmospheric predictors, which are themselves reanalysis products. The advantages of the proposed correction scheme over previous calibration attempts are the consideration of the synoptic weather and cloud state, compatibility of the predictors with the mechanism responsible for the bias, and a self-emerging seasonality and multidecadal trend consistent with the declining sea ice state in the Arctic. The correction leads on average to a 27% temperature bias reduction for ERA5 and 7% for JRA-55 if compared to independent in situ observations from the MOSAiC campaign (respectively, 32% and 10% under clear-sky conditions). These improvements can be beneficial for forced sea ice and ocean simulations, which rely on reanalyses surface fields as boundary conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

IMPROVING THE ACCURACY OF COMPOSITE METHODS: A G4MP2 METHOD WITH G4-LIKE ACCURACY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR MACHINE LEARNING

G4MP2 theory has proven to be a reliable and accurate quantum chemical composite method for the calculation of molecular energies using an approximation based on second-order perturbation theory to lower computational costs compared to G4 theory. However, it has been found to have significantly increased errors when applied to larger organic molecules with 10 or more nonhydrogen atoms. We report here on an investigation of the cause of the failure of G4MP2 theory for such larger molecules. One source of error is found to be the "higher-level correction (HLC)", which is meant to correct for deficiencies in correlation contributions to the calculated energies. This is because the HLC assumes that the contribution is independent of the element and the type of bonding involved, both of which become more important with larger molecules. We address this problem by adding an atom-specific correction, dependent on atom type but not bond type, to the higher-level correction. We find that a G4MP2 method that incorporates this modification of the higher-level correction, referred to as G4MP2A, becomes as accurate as G4 theory (for computing enthalpies of formation) for a test set of molecules with less than 10 nonhydrogen atoms as well as a set with 10-14 such atoms, the set of molecules considered here, with a much lower computational cost. The G4MP2A method is also found to significantly improve ionization potentials and electron affinities. Finally, we implemented the G4MP2A energies in a machine learning method to predict molecular energies.

Dandu, Naveen↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measuring the electron temperature and identifying plasma detachment using machine learning and spectroscopy

A machine learning approach has been implemented to measure the electron temperature directly from the emission spectra of a tokamak plasma. This approach utilized a neural network (NN) trained on a dataset of 1865 time slices from operation of the DIII-D tokamak using extreme ultraviolet/vacuum ultraviolet emission spectroscopy matched with high-accuracy divertor Thomson scattering measurements of the electron temperature, T e . This NN is shown to be particularly good at predicting T e at low temperatures (T e < 10 eV) where the NN demonstrated a mean average error of less than 1 eV. Trained to detect plasma detachment in the tokamak divertor, a NN classifier was able to correctly identify detached states (T e < 5 eV) with a 99% accuracy (an F 1 score of 0.96) at an acquisition rate 10× faster than the Thomson scattering measurement. The performance of the model is understood by examining a set of 4800 theoretical spectra generated using collisional radiative modeling that was also used to predict the performance of a low-cost spectrometer viewing nitrogen emission in the visible wavelengths. Furthermore, these results provide a proof-of-principle that low-cost spectrometers leveraged with machine learning can be used to boost the performance of more expensive diagnostics on fusion devices and be used independently as a fast and accurate T e measurement and detachment classifier.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

ML–Enabled FPGA Framework for Fast Quantum State Discrimination in Mid-Circuit Measurement Regimes

Accurate and low-latency quantum state discrimination is essential for protocols involving mid-circuit measurement (MCM) and conditional feed-forward. In superconducting quantum systems, conventional readout pipelines transfer measurement data to host processors for post-processing, introducing millisecond-scale delays that far exceed qubit coherence times. To overcome this bottleneck, we present an in-situ machine learning (ML) inference engine implemented on an FPGA for real-time quantum state discrimination. Our design performs inference directly on digitized readout signals with 40 ns latency, supports both qubit and qutrit readout, and enables conditional operations without host-side intervention. This capability is critical for MCM and for feedback-driven protocols such as quantum error correction. We validate the system on superconducting transmon hardware, demonstrating robust discrimination fidelity across multiple qubit and qutrit channels. We further demonstrate conditional qutrit logic driven by FPGA-resident classification, highlighting the potential of low-latency ML-on-FPGA control for NISQ applications and scalable fault-tolerant quantum computing.

Vora, Neel [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatially Local Surrogate Modeling of Subgrid-Scale Effects in Idealized Atmospheric Flows: A Deep Learned Approach Using High-Resolution Simulation Data

Abstract We introduce a machine learned surrogate model from high-resolution simulation data to capture the subgrid-scale effects in dry, stratified atmospheric flows. We use deep neural networks (NNs) to model the spatially local state differences between a coarse-resolution simulation and a high-resolution simulation. The setup enables the capture of both dissipative and antidissipative effects in the state differences. The NN model is able to accurately capture the state differences in offline tests outside the training regime. In online tests intended for production use, the NN-coupled coarse simulation has higher accuracy over a significant period of time compared to the coarse-resolution simulation without any correction. We provide evidence of the capability of the NN model to accurately capture high-gradient regions in the flow field. With the accumulation of the errors, the NN-coupled simulation becomes computationally unstable after approximately 90 coarse simulation time steps. Insights gained from these surrogate models further pave the way for formulating stable, complex, physics-based spatially local NN models which are driven by traditional subgrid-scale turbulence closure models. Significance Statement Flows in the atmosphere are highly chaotic and turbulent, comprising flow structures of broad scales. For effective computational modeling of atmospheric flows, the effects of the small- and large-scale structures need to be captured by the simulations. Capturing the small-scale structures requires fine-resolution simulations. Even with the current state-of-the-art supercomputers, it can be prohibitively expensive to simulate these flows when computed for the entire earth over climate time scales. Thus, it is necessary to focus on the larger-scale structures using a coarse-resolution simulation while capturing the effects of the smaller-scale structures using some parameterization (approximation) scheme and incorporating it into the coarse-resolution simulation. We use machine learning to model the effects of the small-scale structures (subgrid-scale effects) in atmospheric flows. Data from a fine-resolution simulation is used to compute the missing subgrid-scale effects in coarse-resolution simulations. We then use machine learning models to approximate these differences between the coarse- and fine-resolution simulations. We see improved accuracy for the coarse-resolution simulations when corrected using these machine learned models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A fault-tolerant neutral-atom architecture for universal quantum computation

Quantum error correction (QEC) is essential for the realization of large-scale quantum computers. However, owing to the complexity of operating on the encoded ‘logical’ qubits, understanding the physical principles for building fault-tolerant quantum devices and combining them into efficient architectures is an outstanding scientific challenge. Here we use reconfigurable arrays of up to 448 neutral atoms to implement the key elements of a universal, fault-tolerant quantum processing architecture and experimentally explore their underlying working mechanisms. We first use surface codes to study how repeated QEC suppresses errors, demonstrating 2.14(13)x below-threshold performance in a four-round characterization circuit by leveraging atom loss detection and machine learning decoding. We then investigate logical entanglement using transversal gates and lattice surgery and extend it to universal logic through transversal teleportation with three-dimensional [[15,1,3]] codes, enabling arbitrary-angle synthesis with polylogarithmic overhead. Finally, we develop mid-circuit qubit reuse16, increasing experimental cycle rates by two orders of magnitude and enabling deep-circuit protocols with dozens of logical qubits and hundreds of logical teleportations with [[7,1,3]] and high-rate [[16,6,4]] codes while maintaining constant internal entropy. Our experiments show key principles for efficient architecture design, involving the interplay between quantum logic and entropy removal, judiciously using physical entanglement in logic gates and magic state generation, and leveraging teleportations for universality and physical qubit reset. These results establish foundations for scalable, universal error-corrected processing and its practical implementation in neutral atom systems.

atomic and molecular physics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Single-Point Extrapolation to the Complete Basis Set Limit through Deep Learning

Machine learning (ML) offers an attractive method for making predictions about molecular systems while circumventing the need to run expensive electronic structure calculations. Once trained on ab initio data, the promise of ML is to deliver accurate predictions of molecular properties that were previously computationally infeasible. In this work, we develop and train a graph neural network model to correct the basis set incompleteness error (BSIE) between a small and large basis set at the RHF and B3LYP levels of theory. Our results show that, when compared to fitting to the total potential, an ML model fitted to correct the BSIE is better at generalizing to systems not seen during training. We test this ability by training on single molecules while evaluating on molecular complexes. We also show that ensemble models yield better behaved potentials in situations where the training data is insufficient. However, even when only fitting to the BSIE, acceptable performance is only achieved when the training data sufficiently resemble the systems one wants to make predictions on. As a result, the test error of the final model trained to predict the difference between the cc-pVDZ and cc-pV5Z potential is 0.184 kcal/mol for the B3LYP density functional, and the ensemble model accurately reproduces the large basis set interaction energy curves on the S66x8 dataset.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of an ultraprecise glue-free bimorph deformable mirror with a length of 460 mm

Lead zirconate titanate (PZT) bimorph mirrors are essential for performing multiple functions, such as beam shaping, wavefront correction, and dynamic focusing with adjustable beam sizes. They typically consist of a mirror substrate with PZT electrodes bonded to the substrate using a thin epoxy film. However, glue-bonded PZT mirrors exhibit low reproducibility in measurement results. One source of this variability is water absorption by the substrate’s epoxy adhesive during wet fabrication processes, such as elastic emission machining (EEM), which leads to swelling and deformation. Additionally, longer deformable bimorph mirrors require larger PZT electrodes, further complicating their design and fabrication, particularly during bonding and ultraprecise metrology. To address these challenges, silver nanoparticles were employed to bond PZT elements to the silicon (Si) mirror, eliminating the need for epoxy glue. Here, in this study, we developed an inorganic-glue-free PZT bimorph mirror with a length of 460 mm and 28 channels. The glue-free bonding method successfully ensured the high reproducibility of measurements after water immersion. This approach resulted in a shape error of only 0.41 nm root mean square after the figure correction process using an ultraprecise EEM process. Scanning acoustic tomography and basic response function tests confirmed the success of the bonding process, showing no critical voids. Furthermore, the shape changes induced by applying voltages to the PZT electrodes closely matched predictions obtained from simulations. These results demonstrate the reliability and precision of the proposed glue-free bonding technique, paving the way for improved performance of new PZT bimorph mirrors.

Ichii, Yoshio [SLAC National Accelerator Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2025

Resolving the Coverage Dependence of Surface Reaction Kinetics with Machine Learning and Automated Quantum Chemistry Workflows

Microkinetic models for catalytic systems require estimation of many thermodynamic and kinetic parameters that can be calculated for isolated species and transition states using ab initio methods. However, the presence of nearby coadsorbates on the surface can dramatically alter these thermodynamic and kinetic parameters causing them to be dependent on species coverage fractions. As there are combinatorially many coadsorbed configurations on the surface, computing the coverage dependence of these parameters is far less straightforward. We present a framework for generating and applying machine learning models to predict coverage-dependent parameters for microkinetic models. Our toolkit enables automatic calculation and evaluation of coadsorbed configurations allowing us to sample 2,000 coadsorbed adsorbates and transition states (TSs) for a diverse set of 9 reactions on Cu(111), a challenging surface, with four possible coadsorbates. This dataset was then used to train subgraph isomorphic decision trees (SIDTs) to predict the stability and association energy of configurations. We were able to achieve mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 0.106 eV on adsorbates, 0.172 eV on TSs, and due to natural error cancellation in SIDTs for relative properties, 0.130 eV on reaction energies and 0.180 eV on activation barriers. In conclusion, we describe how to use these models to predict coverage-dependent corrections for adsorbates and TSs and demonstrate on H*, HO*, and O* comparing the generated SIDT model with an iteratively refined version.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

S AP F LOWER : an automated tool for sap flow data preprocessing, gap-filling, and analysis using deep learning

Sap flow, a critical process in plant water use and ecosystem water cycles, is often measured using thermal dissipation probes (TDP) due to their ease of installation and continuous data collection. However, sap flow data frequently include noise, outliers, and gaps, creating challenges for analysis and requiring substantial manual processing. We developed S AP F LOWER , a tool that automates data preprocessing, model training, gap-filling, sapwood area scaling and modeling, and water use analysis. It integrates autocleaning, machine learning and deep learning models (e.g. random forest, Gaussian process regression, long short-term memory (LSTM), bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM)), and efficient workflows to process sap flow data. S AP F LOWER can remove over 90% of noisy data while preserving legitimate variations and achieve high accuracy in gap-filling based on user-determined parameters. Random forest, LSTM, and BiLSTM models reduced root mean square error to 10% or less for long-term gaps. Model training and prediction can be performed efficiently within seconds. S AP F LOWER significantly enhances the efficiency and accessibility of TDP data analysis by automating complex tasks, enabling researchers without programming expertise to employ advanced techniques. Future improvements will focus on species-specific corrections for TDP and support for additional measurement methods. S AP F LOWER is openly available on GitHub (https://github.com/JiaxinWang123/SapFlower) and Zenodo (doi: 10.5281/zenodo.13665919).

ecosystem water balance↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Random Forest Modeling Strategies for Multi-Step Wind Speed Forecasting

Although the random forest (RF) model is a powerful machine learning tool that has been utilized in many wind speed/power forecasting studies, there has been no consensus on optimal RF modeling strategies. This study investigates three basic questions which aim to assist in the discernment and quantification of the effects of individual model properties, namely: (1) using a standalone RF model versus using RF as a correction mechanism for the persistence approach, (2) utilizing a recursive versus direct multi-step forecasting strategy, and (3) training data availability on model forecasting accuracy from one to six hours ahead. These questions are investigated utilizing data from the FINO1 offshore platform and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) C1 site, and testing results are compared to the persistence method. At FINO1, due to the presence of multiple wind farms and high inter-annual variability, RF is more effective as an error-correction mechanism for the persistence approach. The direct forecasting strategy is seen to slightly outperform the recursive strategy, specifically for forecasts three or more steps ahead. Finally, increased data availability (up to ~8 equivalent years of hourly training data) appears to continually improve forecasting accuracy, although changing environmental flow patterns have the potential to negate such improvement. We hope that the findings of this study will assist future researchers and industry professionals to construct accurate, reliable RF models for wind speed forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

CCSI Toolset 3.22 Release

CCSI Toolset 3.22 Release Highlights The Sequential Design of Experiments user interface was updated to resolve an issue where the results would fail to plot in some cases (e.g., Non-Uniform Space Filling designs). The Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence module was updated to support Keras 3 and to reflect changes made to dependencies’ syntax. A check was added to ensure PSUADE is installed and available at FOQUS startup. If PSUADE is not installed, a link to the FOQUS documentation is displayed and FOQUS is closed. The copyright year was updated to include 2024 in places where it had not previously been updated. Typographical errors were corrected to improve clarity in variable names and documentation. The FOQUS documentation was updated to reflect the fact that ALAMO can have two executables and indicates the correct executable to add to the Settings path. SimSinter was updated to version 3.1.0. This version removed gPROMS support and included security updates.

AS↗

DOE OSTI2021

When and why PINNs fail to train: A neural tangent kernel perspective

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have lately received great attention thanks to their flexibility in tackling a wide range of forward and inverse problems involving partial differential equations. However, despite their noticeable empirical success, little is known about how such constrained neural networks behave during their training via gradient descent. More importantly, even less is known about why such models sometimes fail to train at all. Here in this work, we aim to investigate these questions through the lens of the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK); a kernel that captures the behavior of fully-connected neural networks in the infinite width limit during training via gradient descent. Specifically, we derive the NTK of PINNs and prove that, under appropriate conditions, it converges to a deterministic kernel that stays constant during training in the infinite-width limit. This allows us to analyze the training dynamics of PINNs through the lens of their limiting NTK and find a remarkable discrepancy in the convergence rate of the different loss components contributing to the total training error. To address this fundamental pathology, we propose a novel gradient descent algorithm that utilizes the eigenvalues of the NTK to adaptively calibrate the convergence rate of the total training error. Finally, we perform a series of numerical experiments to verify the correctness of our theory and the practical effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cyclic Prefix Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum Capacity Analysis

Cyclic Prefix Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum (CP-DSSS) is a novel waveform that has the potential to solve 5G objectives such as ultra reliable low latency communication (URLLC) and massive machine Type Communication (mMTC). This paper analyzes the capacity of the CP-DSSS waveform in comparison with Orthogonal Frequency Domain Multiplexing OFDM). CP-DSSS can be optimized to achieve the same capacity as OFDM when optimized by the water-filling algorithm. A significant advantage for CP-DSSS is that this capacity can be achieved with all symbols being transmitted with the same effective rate. As a result, stronger forward error correction codes can be used in a CP-DSSS implementation compared to an OFDM implementation with resource block constraints. In addition, the applicability of CP-DSSS as a waveform for a secondary network operating in the same frequency band as the primary network is discussed.

5G and Beyond Communications↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of obstacle modelling approaches for resource assessment and small wind turbine siting: case study in the northern Netherlands

Abstract. Growth in adoption of distributed wind turbines for energy generation is significantly impacted by challenges associated with siting and accurate estimation of the wind resource. Small turbines, at hub heights of 40 m or less, are greatly impacted by terrestrial obstacles such as built structures and vegetation that can cause complex wake effects. While some progress in high-fidelity complex fluid dynamics (CFD) models has increased the potential accuracy for modelling the impacts of obstacles on turbulent wind flow, these models are too computationally expensive for practical siting and resource assessment applications. To understand the efficacy of available models in situ, this study evaluates classic and commonly used methods alongside new state-of-the-art lower-order models derived from CFD simulations and machine learning approaches. This evaluation is conducted using a subset of an extensive original dataset of measurements from more than 300 operational wind turbines in the northern Netherlands. The results show that data-driven methods (e.g. machine learning and statistical modelling) are most effective at predicting production at real sites with an average error in annual energy production of 2.5 %. When sufficient data may not be available de novo to support these data-driven approaches, models derived from high-fidelity simulations show promise and reliably outperform classic methods. On average these models have 6.3 %–11.5 % error compared with 26 % for classic methods and 27 % baseline error for reanalysis data without obstacle correction. While more performant on average, these methods are also sensitive to the quality of obstacle descriptions and reanalysis inputs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid learning techniques for scientific data reduction with performance guarantees

The research initiatives supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Grant DE-SC0022265 are fundamentally aimed at pioneering advanced machine learning (ML) techniques for scientific data compression within high-performance computing (HPC) environments. This comprehensive body of work addresses the critical challenge posed by the exponential growth of data generated by scientific simulations in domains such as fusion energy, climate modeling, and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A core objective is to develop compression algorithms that achieve substantial data reduction—often by orders of magnitude—while rigorously ensuring the fidelity of both the primary data (PD) and scientifically crucial derived quantities of interest (QoI). The methodologies deployed under this grant integrate sophisticated deep learning architectures, prominently featuring autoencoders, advanced generative models like conditional diffusion, and hybrid learning techniques. Key innovations include the development of Guaranteed Autoencoders (GAE) and the Guaranteed Conditional Diffusion with Tensor Correction (GCDTC) framework, which provide explicit, instance-level error bounds on reconstructed data. Furthermore, specialized strategies such as nonlinear constraint satisfaction are employed to preserve the integrity of QoI, a vital requirement for the trustworthiness of downstream scientific analyses. This research also focuses on the design and implementation of scalable, GPU-accelerated software pipelines that seamlessly integrate into existing HPC workflows, ensuring both computational efficiency and practical applicability. The CAESAR framework, for example, unifies foundation and generative models to create an adaptive and efficient compression solution for spatio-temporal scientific data. Collectively, these efforts represent a significant advancement in mitigating the scientific data deluge, enabling more effective data management, accelerated scientific discovery, and optimized utilization of HPC resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Final report- UFL - RAPIDS2: A SciDAC Institute for Computer Science, Data, and Artificial Intelligence

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

CrossCheck: Rapid, Reproducible, and Interpretable Model Evaluation

Evaluation beyond aggregate performance metrics, e.g. F1-score, is crucial to both establish an appropriate level of trust in machine learning models and identify future model improvements. In this paper we demonstrate CrossCheck, an interactive visualization tool for rapid crossmodel comparison and reproducible error analysis. We describe the tool and discuss design and implementation details. We then present three use cases (named entity recognition, reading comprehension, and clickbait detection) that show the benefits of using the tool for model evaluation. CrossCheck allows data scientists to make informed decisions to choose between multiple models, identify when the models are correct and for which examples, investigate whether the models are making the same mistakes as humans, evaluate models’ generalizability and highlight models’ limitations, strengths and weaknesses. Furthermore, CrossCheck is implemented as a Jupyter widget, which allows rapid and convenient integration into data scientists’ model development workflows.

Arendt, Dustin L.↗