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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Attributing Tropical Cyclogenesis to Equatorial Waves in the Western North Pacific

The direct influences of equatorial waves on the genesis of tropical cyclones are evaluated. Tropical cyclogenesis is attributed to an equatorial wave when the filtered rainfall anomaly exceeds a threshold value at the genesis location. For an attribution threshold of 3 mm/day, 51% of warm season western North Pacific tropical cyclones are attributed to tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances, 29% to equatorial Rossby waves, 26% to mixed Rossby-Gravity waves, 23% to Kelvin waves, 13% to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and 19% are not attributed to any equatorial wave. The fraction of tropical cyclones attributed to TD-type disturbances is consistent with previous findings. Past studies have also demonstrated that the MJO significantly modulates tropical cyclogenesis, but fewer storms are attributed to the MJO than any other wave type. This disparity arises from the difference between attribution and modulation. The MJO produces broad regions of favorable conditions for cyclogenesis, but the MJO alone might not determine when and where a storm will develop within these regions. Tropical cyclones contribute less than 17% of the power in any portion of the equatorial wave spectrum because tropical cyclones are relatively uncommon equatorward of 15deg latitude. In regions where they are active, however, tropical cyclones can contribute more than 20% of the warm season rainfall and up to 50% of the total variance. Tropical cyclone-related anomalies can significantly contaminate wave-filtered precipitation at the location of genesis. To mitigate this effect, the tropical cyclone-related rainfall anomalies were removed before filtering in this study.

Schreck, Carl J., III↗
NASA NTRS2012

Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively-coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data and performing simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (I) wave deepening associated with wave shortening and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with bOlll1dary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

Shen, Bo-Wen↗
NASA NTRS2013

The MJO Transition from Shallow to Deep Convection in CloudSat/CALIPSO Data and GISS GCM Simulations

The relationship between convective penetration depth and tropospheric humidity is central to recent theories of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). It has been suggested that general circulation models (GCMs) poorly simulate the MJO because they fail to gradually moisten the troposphere by shallow convection and simulate a slow transition to deep convection. CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) data are analyzed to document the variability of convection depth and its relation to water vapor during the MJO transition from shallow to deep convection and to constrain GCM cumulus parameterizations. Composites of cloud occurrence for 10MJO events show the following anticipatedMJO cloud structure: shallow and congestus clouds in advance of the peak, deep clouds near the peak, and upper-level anvils after the peak. Cirrus clouds are also frequent in advance of the peak. The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EarthObserving System (EOS) (AMSR-E) columnwater vapor (CWV) increases by;5 mmduring the shallow- deep transition phase, consistent with the idea of moisture preconditioning. Echo-top height of clouds rooted in the boundary layer increases sharply with CWV, with large variability in depth when CWV is between;46 and 68 mm. International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud classifications reproduce these climatological relationships but correctly identify congestus-dominated scenes only about half the time. A version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2 (GISS-E2) GCM with strengthened entrainment and rain evaporation that produces MJO-like variability also reproduces the shallow-deep convection transition, including the large variability of cloud-top height at intermediate CWV values. The variability is due to small grid-scale relative humidity and lapse rate anomalies for similar values of CWV. 1.

DelGenio, Anthony G.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Tropical Subseasonal Variability Simulated in the NASA GISS General Circulation Model

The tropical subseasonal variability simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model, Model E2, is examined. Several versions of Model E2 were developed with changes to the convective parameterization in order to improve the simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). When the convective scheme is modified to have a greater fractional entrainment rate, Model E2 is able to simulate MJO-like disturbances with proper spatial and temporal scales. Increasing the rate of rain reevaporation has additional positive impacts on the simulated MJO. The improvement in MJO simulation comes at the cost of increased biases in the mean state, consistent in structure and amplitude with those found in other GCMs when tuned to have a stronger MJO. By reinitializing a relatively poor-MJO version with restart files from a relatively better-MJO version, a series of 30-day integrations is constructed to examine the impacts of the parameterization changes on the organization of tropical convection. The poor-MJO version with smaller entrainment rate has a tendency to allow convection to be activated over a broader area and to reduce the contrast between dry and wet regimes so that tropical convection becomes less organized. Besides the MJO, the number of tropical-cyclone-like vortices simulated by the model is also affected by changes in the convection scheme. The model simulates a smaller number of such storms globally with a larger entrainment rate, while the number increases significantly with a greater rain reevaporation rate.

Kim, Daehyun↗
NASA NTRS2013

Modulation of Terrestrial Convection by Tropospheric Humidity, and Implications for Other Planets

For decades, deep cumulus convection was viewed as consisting partly of undilute plumes that do not interact with their surrounding environment in order to explain their observed tendency to reach or penetrate the tropical tropopause. This behavior was built into all cumulus parameterizations used in terrestrial global climate and numerical weather prediction models, and it still persists in some models today. In the past decade, though, some embarrassing failures of global models have come to light, notably their tendency to rain over land near noon rather than in late afternoon or evening as observed, and the absence in the models of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the major source of intraseasonal (30-90 day) precipitation variability in the Indian Ocean, West Pacific, and surrounding continental regions. In the past decade it has become clear that an important missing component of parameterizations is strong turbulent entrainment of drier environmental air into cumulus updrafts, which reduces the buoyancy of the updrafts and thus limits their vertical development. Tropospheric humidity thus serves as a throttle on convective penetration to high altitudes and delays the convective response to large-scale destabilizing influences in the environment.

tropical regions↗
NASA NTRS2012

Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data, including NCEP reanalysis data and METEOSAT 7 IR satellite imagery, and performing numerical simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no sub-grid cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and thus the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres, leading to the formation of the TCs. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (1) wave deepening (intensification) associated with a reduction in wavelength and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with boundary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

forecast↗
NASA NTRS2013

Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) Simulated with a Global Mesoscale Model

In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22-26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16-18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6 days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2 day period of 18Z 21-23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low-level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper-level trough at 200 hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low-level WWB and upper-level trough are likely associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation.

multiscale processes↗
NASA NTRS2015

CORRIGENDUM of the MJO Transition from Shallow to Deep Convection in Cloudsat-Calipso Data and GISS GCM Simulations

We have identified several errors in the calculations that were performed to create Fig. 3 of Del Genio et al. (2012). These errors affect the composite evolution of precipitation and column water vapor versus lag relative to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) peak presented in that figure. The precipitation and column water vapor data for the April and November 2009 MJO events were composited incorrectly because the date of the MJO peak at a given longitude was assigned to the incorrect longitude band. In addition, the precipitation data for all MJO events were first accumulated daily and the daily accumulations averaged at each lag to create the composite, rather than the averaging of instantaneous values that was used for other composite figures in the paper. One poorly sampled day in the west Pacific therefore biases the composite precipitation in that region at several lags after the MJO peak. Finally, a 4-day running mean was mistakenly applied to the precipitation and column water vapor data rather than the intended 5-day running mean. The results of the corrections are that an anomalous west Pacific precipitation maximum510 days after the MJO peak is removed and the maximum in west Pacific precipitation one pentad before the MJO peak is now more evident; there is now a clear maximum in precipitation for the entire warm pool one pentad before the MJO peak; west Pacific column water vapor now varies more strongly as a function of lag relative to the peak; and precipitation, and to a lesser extent column water vapor, in general vary more smoothly with time. The corrections do not affect any other parts of the paper nor do they change the scientific conclusions we reached. The 4-day running mean error also affects Figs. 1 and 2 therein, with almost imperceptible impacts that do not affect any results or necessitate major changes to the text.

correction↗
NASA NTRS2016

Understanding Oceanic Heavy Precipitation Using Scatterometer, Satellite Precipitation, and Reanalysis Products

The primary aim of this study is to understand the heavy precipitation events over Oceanic regions using vector wind retrievals from space based scatterometers in combination with precipitation products from satellite and model reanalysis products. Heavy precipitation over oceans is a less understood phenomenon and this study tries to fill in the gaps which may lead us to a better understanding of heavy precipitation over oceans. Various phenomenon may lead to intense precipitation viz. MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), Extratropical cyclones, MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems), that occur inside or outside the tropics and if we can decipher the physical mechanisms behind occurrence of heavy precipitation, then it may lead us to a better understanding of such events which further may help us in building more robust weather and climate models. During a heavy precipitation event, scatterometer wind observations may lead us to understand the governing dynamics behind that event near the surface. We hypothesize that scatterometer winds can observe significant changes in the near-surface circulation and that there are global relationships among these quantities. To the degree to which this hypothesis fails, we will learn about the regional behavior of heavy precipitation-producing systems over the ocean. We use a "precipitation feature" (PF) approach to enable statistical analysis of a large database of raining features.

Winds↗
NASA NTRS2016

Small vs. Large Convective Cloud Objects from CERES Aqua Observations: Where are the Intraseasonal Variation Signals?

During inactive phases of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), there are plenty of deep but small convective systems and far fewer deep and large ones. During active phases of MJO, a manifestation of an increase in the occurrence of large and deep cloud clusters results from an amplification of large-scale motions by stronger convective heating. This study is designed to quantitatively examine the roles of small and large cloud clusters during the MJO life cycle. We analyze the cloud object data from Aqua CERES observations for tropical deep convective (DC) and cirrostratus (CS) cloud object types according to the real-time multivariate MJO index. The cloud object is a contiguous region of the earth with a single dominant cloud-system type. The size distributions, defined as the footprint numbers as a function of cloud object diameters, for particular MJO phases depart greatly from the combined (8-phase) distribution at large cloud-object diameters due to the reduced/increased numbers of cloud objects related to changes in the large-scale environments. The medium diameter corresponding to the combined distribution is determined and used to partition all cloud objects into "small" and "large" groups of a particular phase. The two groups corresponding to the combined distribution have nearly equal numbers of footprints. The medium diameters are 502 km for DC and 310 km for cirrostratus. The range of the variation between two extreme phases (typically, the most active and depressed phases) for the small group is 6-11% in terms of the numbers of cloud objects and the total footprint numbers. The corresponding range for the large group is 19-44%. In terms of the probability density functions of radiative and cloud physical properties, there are virtually no differences between the MJO phases for the small group, but there are significant differences for the large groups for both DC and CS types. These results suggest that the intreseasonal variation signals reside at the large cloud clusters while the small cloud clusters represent the background noises resulting from various types of the tropical waves with different wavenumbers and propagation directions/speeds.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗
NASA NTRS2015

Background Noises Versus Intraseasonal Variation Signals: Small vs. Large Convective Cloud Objects From CERES Aqua Observations

During inactive phases of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), there are plenty of deep but small convective systems and far fewer deep and large ones. During active phases of MJO, a manifestation of an increase in the occurrence of large and deep cloud clusters results from an amplification of large-scale motions by stronger convective heating. This study is designed to quantitatively examine the roles of small and large cloud clusters during the MJO life cycle. We analyze the cloud object data from Aqua CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) observations between July 2006 and June 2010 for tropical deep convective (DC) and cirrostratus (CS) cloud object types according to the real-time multivariate MJO index, which assigns the tropics to one of the eight MJO phases each day. The cloud object is a contiguous region of the earth with a single dominant cloud-system type. The criteria for defining these cloud types are overcast footprints and cloud top pressures less than 400 hPa, but DC has higher cloud optical depths (=10) than those of CS (<10). The size distributions, defined as the footprint numbers as a function of cloud object diameters, for particular MJO phases depart greatly from the combined (8-phase) distribution at large cloud-object diameters due to the reduced/increased numbers of cloud objects related to changes in the large-scale environments. The medium diameter corresponding to the combined distribution is determined and used to partition all cloud objects into "small" and "large" groups of a particular phase. The two groups corresponding to the combined distribution have nearly equal numbers of footprints. The medium diameters are 502 km for DC and 310 km for cirrostratus. The range of the variation between two extreme phases (typically, the most active and depressed phases) for the small group is 6-11% in terms of the numbers of cloud objects and the total footprint numbers. The corresponding range for the large group is 19-44%. In terms of the probability density functions of radiative and cloud physical properties, there are virtually no differences between the MJO phases for the small group, but there are significant differences for the large groups for both DC and CS types. These results suggest that the intreseasonal variation signals reside at the large cloud clusters while the small cloud clusters represent the background noises resulting from various types of the tropical waves with different wavenumbers and propagation speeds/directions.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗
NASA NTRS2016

Highlights from the 11-Year Record of Tropospheric Ozone from OMI/MLS and Continuation of that Long Record Using OMPS Measurements

Since October 2004 the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) onboard the Aura satellite have provided over 11 years of continuous tropospheric ozone measurements. These OMI/MLS measurements have been used in many studies to evaluate dynamical and photochemical effects caused by ENSO, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and shorter timescales, as well as long-term trends and the effects of deep convection on tropospheric ozone. Given that the OMI and MLS instruments have now extended well beyond their expected lifetimes, our goal is to continue their long record of tropospheric ozone using recent Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS) measurements. The OMPS onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership NPP satellite was launched on October 28, 2011 and is comprised of three instruments: the nadir mapper, the nadir profiler, and the limb profiler. Our study combines total column ozone from the OMPS nadir mapper with stratospheric column ozone from the OMPS limb profiler to measure tropospheric ozone residual. The time period for the OMPS measurements is March 2012 present. For the OMPS limb profiler retrievals, the OMPS v2 algorithm from Goddard is tested against the University of Saskatchewan (USask) Algorithm. The retrieved ozone profiles from each of these algorithms are evaluated with ozone profiles from both ozonesondes and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Effects on derived OMPS tropospheric ozone caused by the 2015-2016 El Nino event are highlighted. This recent El Nino produced anomalies in tropospheric ozone throughout the tropical Pacific involving increases of approximately 10 DU over Indonesia and decreases approximately 5-10 DU in the eastern Pacific. These changes in ozone due to El Nino were predominantly dynamically-induced, caused by the eastward shift in sea-surface temperature and convection from the western to the eastern Pacific.

MJO↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Role of DYNAMO in Situ Observations in Improving NASA Ceres-like Daily Surface and Atmospheric Radiative Flux Estimates

The daily surface and atmospheric radiative fluxes from NASA Clouds and the Earths RadiantEnergy System (CERES) Synoptic 1 degree (SYN1deg) Ed3A are among the most widely used data to studycloud-radiative feedback. The CERES SYN1deg data are based on Fu-Liou radiative transfer computations thatuse specific humidity (Q) and air temperature (T) from NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)reanalyses as inputs and are therefore subject to the quality of those fields. This study uses in situ Q and Tobservations collected during the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign toaugment the input stream used in the NASA GMAO reanalysis and assess the impact on the CERES dailysurface and atmospheric longwave estimates. The results show that the assimilation of DYNAMOobservations considerably improves the vertical profiles of analyzed Q and T over and near DYNAMO stationsby moistening and warming the lower troposphere and upper troposphere and drying and cooling themid-upper troposphere. As a result of these changes in Q and T, the computed CERES daily surface downwardlongwave flux increases by about 5 W m(exp -2), due mainly to the warming and moistening in the lowertroposphere; the computed daily top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing longwave radiation increases by2-3 W m(exp -2) during dry periods only. Correspondingly, the estimated local atmospheric longwave radiativecooling enhances by about 5 W m(exp -2) (7-8 W m(exp -2)) during wet (dry) periods. These changes reduce the bias inthe CERES SYN1deg-like daily longwave estimates at both the TOA and surface and represent animprovement over the DYNAMO region.

DYNAMO↗
NASA NTRS2017

Changes in the Structure and Propagation of the MJO with Increasing CO2

Changes in the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) with increasing CO2 concentrations are examined using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Global Climate Model (GCM). Four simulations performed with fixed CO2 concentrations of 0.5, 1, 2 and 4 times pre-industrial levels using the GCM coupled with a mixed layer ocean model are analyzed in terms of the basic state, rainfall and moisture variability, and the structure and propagation of the MJO.The GCM simulates basic state changes associated with increasing CO2 that are consistent with results from earlier studies: column water vapor increases at approximately 7.1% K(exp -1), precipitation also increases but at a lower rate (approximately 3% K(exp -1)), and column relative humidity shows little change. Moisture and rainfall variability intensify with warming. Total moisture and rainfall variability increases at a rate that is similar to that of the mean state change. The intensification is faster in the MJO-related anomalies than in the total anomalies, though the ratio of the MJO band variability to its westward counterpart increases at a much slower rate. On the basis of linear regression analysis and space-time spectral analysis, it is found that the MJO exhibits faster eastward propagation, faster westward energy dispersion, a larger zonal scale and deeper vertical structure in warmer climates.

Adames, Angel F.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Impact of a Cold Pool Parameterization on the Diurnal Cycle and Intraseasonal Variability in the GEOS AGCM

A gradual transition from shallow to deep convection may be important both to the continental diurnal cycle of precipitation and to the tropical Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, many existing convection parameterizations transition too readily, with corresponding diurnal and intraseasonal biases. High entrainment rates can be used to delay deep convection, but typically produce mean state biases; this is the "entrainment dilemma." Cold pools and sub-grid organization offer a potential solution to this dilemma, and recent work shows parameterized cold pools can effectively modulate deep convection, with improvements to the diurnal cycle and intraseasonal variability. Here we investigate the effects of a simple prognostic cold pool scheme coupled to the Grell-Freitas convection parameterization, in a set of global simulations with the NASA GEOS model. Air detrained from parameterized downdrafts is maintained in vertically resolved cold pools, which evolve with simplified dynamics. We test several options for cold pool feedbacks on convection, including modifications to deep convective entrainment rates, convective source air properties, and thermodynamic profiles, based on the level of cold pool activity. Cold pool impacts on the diurnal cycle are evaluated against TRMM, and moisture and moist static energy budgets are used to understand changes in tropical intraseasonal variability. Preliminary results show delays in the diurnal cycle of precipitation.

Arnold, Nathan↗
NASA NTRS2018

Intraseasonal Variations of Nonmigrating Tides Observed Near the Mesopause

Nonmigrating tides excited in the tropical troposphere by latent heat release from deep convection are known to be responsible for introducing the longitudinal structures in the upper atmosphere and the ionosphere. This study presents for the first time an extensive analysis of the prominent wave-3 and wave-4 longitudinal structures using nearly 14 years of temperature observations by the Microwave Limb Sounder instrument operated on the Aura satellite from 2004 to 2017. The observations reveal significant intraseasonal (~30-60 days) periodic variations in the amplitudes of these wave structures at ~97-km altitude near the mesopause. Some large wave amplitudes accompany strong activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission are used as a proxy of latent heating to investigate the source of these variations. Intraseasonal signatures in the wave structures are observed to coincide with the rainfall variations, indicating that the tropospheric 30- to 60- day oscillation is an important driver of the same periodic changes in the upper atmosphere. Given that not all intraseasonal oscillations in the lower atmosphere have corresponding signatures in the longitudinal wave structures, the atmospheric conditions and other influences are important. This study provides evidence on the connection between intraseasonal variations of tides in the upper atmosphere and the changes in the forcing by latent heat release in the troposphere.

Liu, Guiping↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multi-Model Subseasonal Prediction Experiment

SubX is a multi-model subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced seventeen years of retrospective (re-) forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The re-forecasts and forecasts are archived at the Data Library of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, providing a comprehensive database for research on subseasonal to seasonal predictability and predictions. The SubX models show skill for temperature and precipitation three weeks ahead of time in specific regions. The SubX multi-model ensemble mean is more skillful than any individual model overall. Skill in simulating the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), two sources of subseasonal predictability, is also evaluated with skillful predictions of the MJO four weeks in advance and of the NAO 2 weeks in advance. SubX is also able to make useful contributions to operational forecast guidance at the Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, SubX provides information on the potential for extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones which can help emergency management and aid organizations to plan for disasters. (Capsule Summary) A research to operations project in service of developing better operational subseasonal forecasts.

Precipitation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Are North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Modulated by the Madden–Julian Oscillation in HighResMIP AGCMs?

This study assesses the representation of the observed relationship between Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) across nine models participating in CMIP6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). Most models struggle to faithfully reproduce the observed impacts of the MJO on Atlantic TCs, with the primary issue being the underestimated TC activity over the Atlantic main development region (MDR). The negative biases in genesis frequency within the MDR can be further attributed to weaker-than-observed African easterly wave (AEW) activity south of ∼12°N. Errors in the diabatic heating profile within the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone lead to insufficient potential vorticity production in the lower troposphere and constrain the amplification of AEWs. In addition to the biased TC climatology, the eastward-propagating power of the MJO is consistently underestimated across all models. Nevertheless, in models with a higher eastward–westward power ratio, the simulated MJO demonstrates a stronger capacity to modulate subseasonal TC activity. Models with relatively realistic eastward propagation of the MJO also exhibit greater variance in tropical intraseasonal convection. Stronger contrasts in convective heating over the North Atlantic between phases 2–3 and phases 6–7 drive larger fluctuations in MDR shear and AEW activity over the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa, resulting in a more pronounced TC response to the MJO. Overall, our findings suggest that improved MDR TC climatology and MJO propagation are essential for models to accurately capture the observed modulations of Atlantic TCs by the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗