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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Differentiable stochastic halo occupation distribution

ABSTRACT In this work, we demonstrate how differentiable stochastic sampling techniques developed in the context of deep reinforcement learning can be used to perform efficient parameter inference over stochastic, simulation-based, forward models. As a particular example, we focus on the problem of estimating parameters of halo occupation distribution (HOD) models that are used to connect galaxies with their dark matter haloes. Using a combination of continuous relaxation and gradient re-parametrization techniques, we can obtain well-defined gradients with respect to HOD parameters through discrete galaxy catalogue realizations. Having access to these gradients allows us to leverage efficient sampling schemes, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, and greatly speed up parameter inference. We demonstrate our technique on a mock galaxy catalogue generated from the Bolshoi simulation using a standard HOD model and find near-identical posteriors as standard Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques with an increase of ∼8× in convergence efficiency. Our differentiable HOD model also has broad applications in full forward model approaches to cosmic structure and cosmological analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Clustering-based biased Monte Carlo Approach to Protein Titration Curve Prediction

We develop and implement a novel approach to computing the ensemble averages in systems characterized by pair-wise interactions between the entities. Methods involving full enumeration of the configuration space result in exponential complexity. Sampling methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have been proposed to tackle the exponential complexity of these problems. In certain scenarios where significant energetic coupling exists between the entities, the accuracy of the such algorithms can be diminished. We propose a strategy to improve the accuracy of the MCMC runs by taking advantage of the cluster structure in the interaction energy matrix. We propose two different schemes for performing the biased MCMC runs on the partitioned systems and show that they are valid MCMC schemes. We then apply these algorithms to the problem of computing the protonation fractions and hence the titration curves of titratable protein residues that constitute a given protein. We leverage both synthesized and real-world systems and show the improved performance of our biased MCMC methods when compared to the regular MCMC method.

Visweswara Sathanur, Arun↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for multicomponent CALPHAD model optimization and uncertainty quantification

CALPHAD model parameter optimization is inherently challenging due to non-smooth objective functions, high-dimensional parameter spaces, and the need for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Traditional weighted nonlinear least squares approaches are computationally efficient but local, whereas black-box global optimizers and ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide broader exploration at substantial computational cost. The objective of this work is to combine the global exploration capability of gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo – specifically the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) – with local deterministic refinement using BFGS to efficiently optimize multicomponent CALPHAD models with minimal manual intervention. Analytic gradients are computed via the Jansson derivative framework. The methodology is demonstrated on the Cr—Fe binary system and extended to the Cr—Fe—Ni ternary system with 32 degrees of freedom. For Cr—Fe, NUTS achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to ensemble MCMC while requiring over an order-of-magnitude fewer likelihood evaluations. Parameter uncertainties are quantified through NUTS sampling and propagated to thermodynamic observables using local expansion, demonstrating a novel modular approach that combines binary and ternary parameter subsets without requiring global relaxation. These results establish gradient-informed exploration as a scalable strategy for multicomponent CALPHAD optimization and provide a practical route towards efficient higher-order database development with quantified uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet

We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here, we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high-performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters. For example, based on the same ice sheet model and data set, the 99th percentile of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in 2300 increases from 6.5 m to 13.1 m when we increase the number of calibrated parameters from three to 11. With previous calibration methods, it would be challenging to go beyond five parameters. Here, this work provides an important next step toward improving the uncertainty quantification of complex, computationally intensive and decision-relevant models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

An Ensemble-Based Smoother with Retrospectively Updated Weights for Highly Nonlinear Systems

Monte Carlo computational methods have been introduced into data assimilation for nonlinear systems in order to alleviate the computational burden of updating and propagating the full probability distribution. By propagating an ensemble of representative states, algorithms like the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the resampled particle filter (RPF) rely on the existing modeling infrastructure to approximate the distribution based on the evolution of this ensemble. This work presents an ensemble-based smoother that is applicable to the Monte Carlo filtering schemes like EnKF and RPF. At the minor cost of retrospectively updating a set of weights for ensemble members, this smoother has demonstrated superior capabilities in state tracking for two highly nonlinear problems: the double-well potential and trivariate Lorenz systems. The algorithm does not require retrospective adaptation of the ensemble members themselves, and it is thus suited to a streaming operational mode. The accuracy of the proposed backward-update scheme in estimating non-Gaussian distributions is evaluated by comparison to the more accurate estimates provided by a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm.

Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2026

GBOpt: Grain boundary structure optimization using Monte Carlo and evolutionary algorithms

Polycrystalline materials are made of many small crystals separated by grain boundaries (GBs), whose atomic structure strongly influences material properties. Because the structure of a GB determines its properties, the optimal structure must be known in order to determine those impacts. There are many ways of placing atoms in the GB region, but the optimal structure is defined as the one that gives the lowest value of a target property (typically energy). GB structure optimization has been successfully demonstrated using stochastic and evolutionary methods, but no reusable, community-maintained open-source workflow has been developed. GBOpt (Grain Boundary Optimization) is an open-source Python package that creates that workflow, where we have presently implemented two approaches: Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and genetic algorithm based on elite selection. We demonstrate this capability by successfully reproducing the known optimal structures of a specific GB in two materials, and point interested readers to the GitHub repository for additional examples, including optimization for different properties. Both of the implemented approaches recovered the known structures, with the genetic algorithm approach finding the optimal structure faster on average.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing earth system model calibration: a diffusion-based method

Understanding of climate impact on ecosystems globally requires site-specific model calibration. Here we introduce a novel diffusion-based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method for efficient model calibration. DBUQ is a score-based diffusion model that leverages Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the score function and evaluates a simple neural network to quickly generate samples for approximating parameter posterior distributions. DBUQ is stable, efficient, and can effectively calibrate the model given diverse observations, thereby enabling rapid and site-specific model calibration on a global scale. This capability significantly advances Earth system modeling and our understanding of climate impacts on Earth systems. We demonstrate DBUQ's capability in E3SM land model calibration at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Both synthetic and real-data applications indicate that DBUQ produces accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those generated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30X less computing time. This efficiency marks a significant stride in model calibration, paving the way for more effective and timely climate impact analyses.

Liu, Yanfang↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radiation Source Localization Using Surrogate Models Constructed from 3-D Monte Carlo Transport Physics Simulations

Recent research has focused on the development of surrogate models for radiation source localization in a simulated urban domain. We employ the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code to provide high- delity simulations of radiation transport within an urban domain. The model is constructed to employ a source location (x, y, z) as input and return the estimated count rate for a set of speci ed detector locations. Because MCNP simulations are computationally expensive, we develop e cient and accurate surrogate models of the detector responses. We construct surrogate models using Gaussian processes (GP) and neural networks (NN) that we train and verify using the MCNP simulations. The trained surrogate models provide an e cient framework for Bayesian inference and experimental design. We employ Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM), a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, to infer the location and intensity of an unknown source. The DRAM results yield a posterior probability distribution for the source's location conditioned on the observed detector count rates. The posterior distribution exhibits regions of high and low probability within the simulated environment identifying potential source locations. In this manner, we can quantify the source location to within at least one of these regions of high probability in the considered cases. Employing these methods, we are able to reduce the space of potential source locations by at least 60%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2017

Kepler Uniform Modeling of KOIs: MCMC Notes for Data Release 25

This document describes data products related to the reported planetary parameters and uncertainties for the Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) based on a Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) analysis. Reported parameters, uncertainties and data products can be found at the NASA Exoplanet Archive . The codes used for this data analysis are available on the Github website (Rowe 2016). The relevant paper for details of the calculations is Rowe et al. (2015). The main differences between the model fits discussed here and those in the DR24 catalogue are that the DR25 light curves were used in the analysis, our processing of the MAST light curves took into account different data flags, the number of chains calculated was doubled to 200 000, and the parameters which are reported are based on a damped least-squares fit, instead of the median value from the Markov chain or the chain with the lowest 2 as reported in the past.

DR25↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Detailed Characterization of HR 8799's Debris Disk with ALMA in Band 7

The exoplanetary system of HR 8799 is one of the rare systems in which multiple planets have been directly imaged. Its architecture is strikingly similar to that of the solar system, with the four imaged giant planets surrounding a warm dust belt analogous to the Asteroid Belt, and themselves being surrounded by a cold dust belt analog to the Kuiper Belt. Previous observations of this cold belt with ALMA in Band 6 (1.3 mm) revealed its inner edge, but analyses of the data differ on its precise location. It was therefore unclear whether or not the outermost planet HR 8799 b was dynamically sculpting it. We present here new ALMA observations of this debris disk in Band 7 (340 GHz, 880 μm). These are the most detailed observations of this disk obtained so far, with a resolution of 1″ (40 au) and sensitivity of 9.8 μJy beam{sup −1}, which allowed us to recover the disk structure with high confidence. In order to constrain the disk morphology, we fit its emission using radiative transfer models combined with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure. We find that this disk cannot be adequately represented by a single power law with sharp edges. It exhibits a smoothly rising inner edge and smoothly falling outer edge, with a peak in between, as expected from a disk that contains a high-eccentricity component, hence confirming previous findings. Whether this excited population and inner edge shape stem from the presence of an additional planet remains, however, an open question.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

TIC 168789840: A Sextuply Eclipsing Sextuple Star System

We report the discovery of a sextuply eclipsing sextuple star system from TESS data, TIC 168789840, also known as TYC 7037-89-1, the first known sextuple system consisting of three eclipsing binaries. The target was observed in Sectors 4 and 5 during Cycle 1, with lightcurves extracted from TESS Full Frame Image data. It was also previously observed by the WASP survey and ASAS-SN. The system consists of three gravitationally bound eclipsing binaries in a hierarchical structure of an inner quadruple system with an outer binary subsystem. Follow-up observations from several different observatories were conducted as a means of determining additional parameters. The system was resolved by speckle interferometry with a 0.″42 separation between the inner quadruple and outer binary, inferring an estimated outer period of ∼2 kyr. It was determined that the fainter of the two resolved components is an 8.217 day eclipsing binary, which orbits the inner quadruple that contains two eclipsing binaries with periods of 1.570 days and 1.306 days. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis of the stellar parameters has shown that the three binaries of TIC 168789840 are “triplets,” as each binary is quite similar to the others in terms of mass, radius, and T {sub eff}. As a consequence of its rare composition, structure, and orientation, this object can provide important new insight into the formation, dynamics, and evolution of multiple star systems. Future observations could reveal if the intermediate and outer orbital planes are all aligned with the planes of the three inner eclipsing binaries.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Anatomy of an Unusual Edge-on Protoplanetary Disk. I. Dust Settling in a Cold Disk

As the earliest stage of planet formation, massive, optically thick, and gas-rich protoplanetary disks provide key insights into the physics of star and planet formation. When viewed edge-on, high-resolution images offer a unique opportunity to study both the radial and vertical structures of these disks and relate this to vertical settling, radial drift, grain growth, and changes in the midplane temperatures. In this work, we present multi-epoch Hubble Space Telescope and Keck scattered light images, and an Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array 1.3 mm continuum map for the remarkably flat edge-on protoplanetary disk SSTC2DJ163131.2–242627, a young solar-type star in ρ Ophiuchus. We model the 0.8 μm and 1.3 mm images in separate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) runs to investigate the geometry and dust properties of the disk using the MCFOST radiative transfer code. In scattered light, we are sensitive to the smaller dust grains in the surface layers of the disk, while the submillimeter dust continuum observations probe larger grains closer to the disk midplane. An MCMC run combining both data sets using a covariance-based log-likelihood estimation was marginally successful, implying insufficient complexity in our disk model. The disk is well characterized by a flared disk model with an exponentially tapered outer edge viewed nearly edge-on, though some degree of dust settling is required to reproduce the vertically thin profile and lack of apparent flaring. A colder than expected disk midplane, evidence for dust settling, and residual radial substructures all point to a more complex radial density profile to be probed with future, higher-resolution observations.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Orbits and Masses of Binaries from Speckle Interferometry at SOAR

We present results from Speckle inteferometric observations of 15 visual binaries and one double-line spectroscopic binary, carried out with the HRCam Speckle camera of the SOAR 4.1 m telescope. These systems were observed as a part of an on-going survey to characterize the binary population in the solar vicinity, out to a distance of 250 pc. We obtained orbital elements and mass sums for our sample of visual binaries. The orbits were computed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm that delivers maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters, as well as posterior probability density functions that allow us to evaluate their uncertainty. Their periods cover a range from 5 yr to more than 500 yr; and their spectral types go from early A to mid M, implying total system masses from slightly more than 4M{sub ⊙} down to 0.2M {sub ⊙}. They are located at distances between approximately 12 and 200 pc, mostly at low Galactic latitude. For the double-line spectroscopic binary YSC8, we present the first combined astrometric/radial-velocity orbit resulting from a self-consistent fit, leading to individual component masses of 0.897 ± 0.027 M {sub ⊙} and 0.857 ± 0.026 M {sub ⊙}; and an orbital parallax of 26.61 ± 0.29 mas, which compares very well with the Gaia DR2 trigonometric parallax (26.55 ± 0.27 mas). In combination with published photometry and trigonometric parallaxes, we place our objects on an H-R diagram and discuss their evolutionary status. We also present a thorough analysis of the precision and consistency of the photometry available for them.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Moderate-resolution K-band Spectroscopy of Substellar Companion κ Andromedae b

We present moderate-resolution (R ∼ 4000) K-band spectra of the “super-Jupiter,” κ Andromedae b. The data were taken with the OSIRIS integral field spectrograph at Keck Observatory. The spectra reveal resolved molecular lines from H{sub 2}O and CO, and are compared to a custom PHOENIX atmosphere model grid appropriate for young planetary-mass objects. We fit the data using a Markov chain Monte Carlo forward-modeling method. Using a combination of our moderate-resolution spectrum and low-resolution, broadband data from the literature, we derive an effective temperature of T {sub eff} = 1950–2150 K, a surface gravity of logg=3.5--4.5, and a metallicity of [M/H] = −0.2–0.0. These values are consistent with previous estimates from atmospheric modeling and the currently favored young age of the system (<50 Myr). We derive a C/O ratio of 0.70{sub −0.24}{sup +0.09} for the source, broadly consistent with the solar C/O ratio. This, coupled with the slightly subsolar metallicity, implies a composition consistent with that of the host star, and is suggestive of formation by a rapid process. The subsolar metallicity of κ Andromedae b is also consistent with predictions of formation via gravitational instability. Further constraints on formation of the companion will require measurement of the C/O ratio of κ Andromedae A. We also measure the radial velocity of κ Andromedae b for the first time, with a value of −1.4 ± 0.9 km s{sup −1} relative to the host star. We find that the derived radial velocity is consistent with the estimated high eccentricity of κ Andromedae b.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Low-mass Group Environments Have No Substantial Impact on the Circumgalactic Medium Metallicity

We explore how environment affects the metallicity of the circumgalactic medium (CGM) using 13 low-mass galaxy groups (two to five galaxies) at &lang;z{sub abs}&rang;=0.25 identified near background quasars. Using quasar spectra from the Hubble Space Telescope/COS and from Keck/HIRES or the Very Large Telescope/UVES, we measure column densities of or determine limits on CGM absorption lines. We use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach with Cloudy to estimate metallicities of cool (T ~ 10{sup 4} K) CGM gas within groups and compare them to CGM metallicities of 47 isolated galaxies. Both group and isolated CGM metallicities span a wide range (-2 < [Si/H] < 0), where the mean group (-0.54 ± 0.22) and isolated (-0.77 ± 0.14) CGM metallicities are similar. Group and isolated environments have similar distributions of H I column densities as a function of impact parameter. However, contrary to isolated galaxies, we do not find an anticorrelation between H I column density and the nearest group galaxy impact parameter. We additionally divided the groups by member luminosity ratios (i.e., galaxy–galaxy and galaxy–dwarf groups). While there was no significant difference in their mean metallicities, a modest increase in sample size should allow one to statistically identify a higher CGM metallicity in galaxy–dwarf groups compared to galaxy–galaxy groups. We conclude that either environmental effects have not played an important role in the metallicity of the CGM at this stage and expect that this may only occur when galaxies are strongly interacting or merging or that some isolated galaxies have higher CGM metallicities due to past interactions. Thus, environment does not seem to be the cause of the CGM metallicity bimodality.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Precise Dynamical Masses and Orbital Fits for β Pic b and β Pic c

We present a comprehensive orbital analysis to the exoplanets β Pictoris b and c that resolves previously reported tensions between the dynamical and evolutionary mass constraints on β Pic b. We use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo orbit code orvara to fit 15 years of radial velocities and relative astrometry (including recent GRAVITY measurements), absolute astrometry from Hipparcos and Gaia, and a single relative radial velocity measurement between β Pic A and b. We measure model-independent masses of 9.3{sub −2.5}{sup +2.6} M {sub Jup} for β Pic b and 8.3 ± 1.0 M {sub Jup} for β Pic c. These masses are robust to modest changes to the input data selection. We find a well-constrained eccentricity of 0.119 ± 0.008 for β Pic b, and an eccentricity of 0.21{sub −0.09}{sup +0.16} for β Pic c, with the two orbital planes aligned to within ∼05. Both planets’ masses are within ∼1σ of the predictions of hot-start evolutionary models and exclude cold starts. We validate our approach on N-body synthetic data integrated using REBOUND. We show that orvara can account for three-body effects in the β Pic system down to a level ∼5 times smaller than the GRAVITY uncertainties. Systematics in the masses and orbital parameters from orvara’s approximate treatment of multiplanet orbits are a factor of ∼5 smaller than the uncertainties we derive here. Future GRAVITY observations will improve the constraints on β Pic c’s mass and (especially) eccentricity, but improved constraints on the mass of β Pic b will likely require years of additional radial velocity monitoring and improved precision from future Gaia data releases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic constrained Bayesian inversion for transpiration cooling

Abstract To enable safe operations in applications such as rocket combustion chambers, the materials require cooling to avoid material damage. Here, transpiration cooling is a promising cooling technique. Numerous studies investigate possibilities to simulate and evaluate the complex cooling mechanism. One naturally arising question is the amount of coolant required to ensure a safe operation. To study this, we introduce an approach that determines the posterior probability distribution of the Reynolds number using an inverse problem and constraining the maximum temperature of the system under parameter uncertainties. Mathematically, this chance inequality constraint is dealt with by a generalized polynomial chaos expansion of the system. The posterior distribution will be evaluated by different Markov chain Monte Carlo based methods. A novel method for the constrained case is proposed and tested among others on two‐dimensional transpiration cooling models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying subsurface parameter and transport uncertainty using surrogate modelling and environmental tracers

Here, we combine physics-based groundwater reactive transport modelling with machine-learning techniques to quantify hydrogeological model and solute transport predictive uncertainties. We train an artificial neural network (ANN) on a dataset of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations generated using a high-fidelity groundwater reactive transport model. Using the trained ANN as a surrogate model to reproduce the input–output response of the high-fidelity reactive transport model, we quantify the posterior distributions of hydrogeological parameters and hydraulic forcing conditions using Markov chain Monte Carlo calibration against field observations of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations. We demonstrate the methodology with a model application that predicts Chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12) solute transport at a contaminated field site in Wyoming, United States. Our results show that including 3 H observations in the calibration dataset reduced the uncertainty in the estimated permeability field and infiltration rates, compared to calibration against hydraulic heads alone. However, predictive uncertainty quantification shows that CFC-12 transport predictions conditioned to the parameter posterior distributions cannot reproduce the field measurements. We found that calibrating the model to hydraulic head and 3 H observations results in groundwater mean ages that are too large to explain the observed CFC-12 concentrations. The coupling of the physics-based reactive transport model with the machine-learning surrogate model allows us to efficiently quantify model parameter and predictive uncertainties, which is typically computationally intractable using reactive transport models alone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗