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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

LANL Institutional Computing Report: Towards a digital twin of Arctic sea ice

Our goal is to develop a digital twin of Arctic sea ice that combines high-resolution predictive modeling with observational products. This effort will provide an optimized model for use in seasonal to sub-seasonal forecasting and a tool for policymakers to better anticipate, plan for, and mitigate the national security impacts of rapidly changing Arctic conditions. The modeling component uses the Discrete Element Model for Sea Ice (DEMSI), which uses discrete elements to represent the sea ice with an explicit representation of forces between them.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing the cooling performance of thermocouples: a power-constrained topology optimization procedure

Abstract Heat pumping through thermoelectric devices has many advantages over traditional cooling. However, their current efficiency is a limiting factor in their implementation. In this paper, we approach the non-convex topology optimization of thermoelectrical elements for cooling applications through the method of moving asymptotes (MMA) to improve their cooling capabilities per watt usage. The optimization problem is defined for a given power budget, aiming for the minimum temperature with a known heat pumping need. The introduction of power as a constraint justifies the introduction of the voltage gradient across the thermocouple as a design variable to maintain the thermoelectrical device in its optimum power-to-heat extraction ratio. To better understand the convergence of this non-convex problem, we present a two-variable analytical thermoelectric optimization model. This example provides information on how to select the penalty parameters used to scale the three material coefficients involved in the problem to obtain lower objective values and better convergence using MMA. The analytical model shows the non-convexity of the problem and provides the recommendation to use penalization coefficients of the form $$p_k=p_{\sigma }>p_{\alpha }=1$$ p k = p σ > p α = 1 for the thermal conductivity, electrical conductivity, and Seebeck coefficients. We tested these penalization coefficients through optimizations of a model based on the 1MC10-031 commercial thermoelectric-cooler (TEC) using the finite element method (FEM). These penalization coefficients provided local minima without the need for volume constraints. With this procedure, we found designs that provided temperatures close to 10 degrees lower using 60% less semiconductor material volume compared to the initial design.

Gutiérrez, G. Reales↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2025

Refinery Integration Analysis: Pathways, Challenges, and Opportunities

Integrating biomass-derived intermediates into traditional petroleum refineries presents unique challenges and opportunities, requiring innovative analysis approaches that account for biofuel producers and refiners. Consequently, teams within the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have developed a comprehensive refinery integration analysis framework that combines experimental data, detailed techno-economic analyses of bio-conversion pathways, and economic projections within refinery linear programming (LP) optimization models. These models enable the identification of promising bio-integration strategies tailored to specific refinery configurations, economic conditions, and production goals. They also capture upstream and downstream impacts, highlighting critical bottlenecks and research opportunities for increasing the share of biogenic feedstocks in traditional refining operations. Refinery models are also packaged into a broader bio-economy optimization framework which enables biofuel supply chain optimization with standalone biofuel production and refinery co-processing/repurposing options. This presentation discusses promising refinery bio-integration strategies along with key challenges and opportunities identified using NREL's refinery and bio-economy optimization frameworks.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Revenue-Maximizing Shared Parking and Electric Vehicle Charging Management in Multi-Unit Dwellings

In urban areas, searching for parking and electric vehicle (EV) charging can result in cruising, congestion, and environmental externalities. Recognizing the business opportunity of offering private parking and charging infrastructure access within multi-unit dwellings (MUDs) during daytime, we model a shared parking and EV charging management system. We maximize the revenue of MUD charging hubs in mixed land use, catering to public demand. Our approach accounts for the objectives of the two stakeholders involved: a demand model is fitted on the choices of EV charging users, and the supply model optimizes the allocation of parking and charging requests in an MUD parking lot. A binary integer linear programming model for the allocation of parking and charging spaces with a rolling horizon is integrated with matching rules that handle both parking and charging requests. In our numerical experiments in a neighborhood of Chicago, Illinois, we estimate the performance of the MUD parking and charging system with metrics that include revenue, number of matchings, and utilization rates. At any given time, MUDs with lower prices attract more charging requests, particularly those of longer duration, resulting in higher revenue and greater charging utilization. Dynamic pricing facilitates a more equitable distribution of requests; as MUD parking lots reach capacity and their fees increase, other MUDs become more competitive, attracting additional requests. Comparing our method against first-come-first-served and optimal-solution benchmarks, we demonstrate our model’s effectiveness in dynamically managing mixed parking and charging demand in MUD charging hubs.

electric vehicle, multi-unit dwelling, charging in↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benefits of Dual Fuel Heat Pump Grid-responsive Control: A Model-based Control Optimization Approach Using Building and Equipment Co-simulation

Conventional dual fuel heat pumps lack the intelligent control mechanisms to efficiently manage the switch between heat pump and furnace, leading to sub-optimal energy usage and, in some cases, increased operating costs. To resolve this gap, this study applies optimized control on hybrid heat pumps. With a focus on equipment control strategies, we compare the performances of five spacing heating equipment, including a conventional heat pump (HP), a conventional furnace, a dual fuel heat pump (DFHP) with conventional control, a dual fuel heat pump with smart control, and a novel seamlessly fuel flexible heat pump (SFFHP). While DFHP runs on either gas or electricity at any given moment, SFFHP concurrently consumes gas and electricity by continuously optimizing the proportion of each. In this research, a co-simulation framework is developed by integrating a building envelope model with a physics-based heat pump simulation model to analyze the benefits of grid-responsive controls of DFHP and SFFHP. The model-based optimal controls adjust the operation of the heat pump and gas furnace based on utility price signals and marginal grid emission to minimize utility cost and CO 2 emissions for multiple climate zones, different utility tariffs, and marginal grid emission scenarios. Case studies in Chicago and Los Angeles demonstrate that SFFHP and DFHP, with model-based optimal control, can deliver significant reductions in peak demand, utility cost, and CO 2 emission. In Chicago, SFFHP and smart controlled DFHP yield up to 64.7% and 61.7% utility cost reduction and up to 15.7% and 8.5% CO 2 emission reduction compared to the gas furnace. In Los Angeles, SFFHP and smart controlled DFHP achieve up to 43.6% and 40.1% utility cost reduction and up to 13.8% and 14.1% CO2 emission reduction compared to conventional heat pumps. In conclusion, by leveraging the fuel flexibility nature of dual fuel heat pumps, the model-based control optimization approach makes dual fuel heat pump an attractive option for demand response programs.

Control↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Enabled Fusion Technology (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Advancing Scientific Understanding in Fusion Energy and Machine Learning This research represented a significant step forward in machine learning (ML) applications for fusion energy experiments. The project integrated advanced data-driven modeling, optimization techniques, and artificial intelligence to enhance the predictive capabilities and operational efficiency of plasma-based fusion systems. Specifically, tasks focused on ML-enhanced diagnostics, operator guidance tools, and predictive modeling helped improve the ability to interpret complex fusion experiments. Key areas of advancement included: 1) data-driven plasma control, i.e., using ML algorithms to optimize experimental conditions and classify plasma behaviors based on historical data; 2) spectroscopy and diagnostics, i.e., applying AI models to extract previously inaccessible insights from experimental spectroscopy data; and 3) configuration mapping and operator guidance, i.e., developing a predictive framework to assist scientists in identifying the most effective experimental parameters, reducing reliance on manual adjustments. By refining these ML-driven techniques, the project contributed to the broader scientific community’s understanding of plasma dynamics and fusion energy viability. Technical Effectiveness and Economic Feasibility The methods investigated demonstrated high technical effectiveness, as reflected in milestones assessing the predictive accuracy, performance, and optimization of fusion configurations. The development of an Operator Guidance Tool (OGT), for example, led to more precise control of plasma conditions by learning from experimental data and offering real-time adjustments. From an economic standpoint, DeFT provided: 1) the ability to reduce trial-and-error experimentation, which lowered operational costs; 2) improved data interpretation methods, which enabled more efficient resource allocation in large-scale fusion research projects; and 3) the automation of key diagnostic tasks, which reduced manual labor and human error, increasing overall efficiency. 13 The final assessments of predictive models and optimization strategies demonstrated that these approaches were scalable and could be implemented across multiple fusion energy research programs. Public Benefit and Societal Impact This project contributed directly to the broader goal of achieving sustainable and commercially viable fusion energy, which had profound implications for clean energy production and climate change mitigation. The integration of AI-driven solutions into fusion research: 1) sped up scientific discovery, accelerating progress towards achieving energy breakthroughs; 2) reduced the cost of experimentation, making fusion research more accessible; and 3) provided a framework for future AI applications in high-energy physics, benefiting adjacent fields like space exploration, material science, and renewable energy. Additionally, by fostering collaborations between AI researchers and plasma physicists, this project promoted interdisciplinary innovation that could lead to broader applications beyond fusion research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural architecture codesign for fast physics applications

We develop a pipeline to streamline neural architecture codesign for physics applications to reduce the need for ML expertise when designing models for novel tasks. Our method employs neural architecture search and network compression in a two-stage approach to discover hardware efficient models. This approach consists of a global search stage that explores a wide range of architectures while considering hardware constraints, followed by a local search stage that fine-tunes and compresses the most promising candidates. We exceed performance on various tasks and show further speedup through model compression techniques such as quantization-aware-training and neural network pruning. We synthesize the optimal models to high level synthesis code for FPGA deployment with the hls4ml library. Additionally, our hierarchical search space provides greater flexibility in optimization, which can easily extend to other tasks and domains. We demonstrate this with two case studies: Bragg peak finding in materials science and jet classification in high energy physics, achieving models with improved accuracy, smaller latencies, or reduced resource utilization relative to the baseline models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

CI-MOR Final Report: Analysis and Validation of Critical Infrastructure Models using Model Order Reduction

This report summarizes the research and capabilities developed as part of the project “Analysis and Validation of Critical Infrastructure Models using Model Order Reduction” (CI-MOR) LDRD project. CI-MOR research enables the solution of large, complex optimization models that naturally arise in national security challenges involving critical infrastructures. Specifically, CI-MOR researchers developed methods to (1) rigorously approximate complex, nonlinear optimization formulations, (2) identify alternative near-optimal solutions, (3) accelerate optimization workflows used for complex applications, and (4) rigorously integrate domain knowledge in stochastic-process models. This report provides an overview of the research done in CI-MOR, and we describe application exemplars used to illustrate CI-MOR capabilities. Furthermore, we describe the software developed by CI-MOR that researchers can leverage to analyze new applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

tsSLOPE

This project implements the interface that reads a machine learning (ML) model trained in Python to be used in Julia to inform a JuMP optimization model.

Chiang, Nai Yun [Lawrence Livermore National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2025

A matheuristic for design and dispatch of a utility-connected distributed energy system

Modeling distributed power generation systems often requires complicated mathematical expressions that present challenges for commercial optimization solvers. Here, this paper presents a matheuristic to solve a mixed-integer optimization model that informs decisions regarding the design and dispatch of a utility-connected microgrid. We deploy a genetic algorithm to search the system design space and a linear program to solve the economic dispatch problem. The model is a component of a web tool that requires solutions within a few minutes. Our method yields objective function values within 5% of an exogenously produced optimal in fewer than 30 seconds for 90% of our test cases compared to only 10% of our test cases by a traditional optimization solver in the same amount of time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic implications and cost of forecasting errors in solar PV power production using optimized deep learning models

Accurate solar Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is important for enhancing both the performance and economic feasibility of PV systems. This study evaluates several deep learning models, including Dense Neural Networks (DNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and a hybrid LSTMCNN model, for predicting PV power production one day in advance. Prior to optimization, the models exhibited relatively high errors, with the best model (DNN) achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 31.13 kW and a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 62.15 %. After employing Bayesian optimization, the LSTM-CNN model demonstrated the best performance, with the RMSE reduced to 9.79 kW and R 2 improved to 97.62 %, showcasing significant enhancement in predictive accuracy. Here, the economic evaluation considered three cases: rewards for underestimation (0.08 USD/kWh), no rewards, and penalties for both over-and underestimation (120 % of the utility tariff). In the rewards scenario, the LSTM-CNN model reduced the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by 4 %, while in the penalty scenario, a backup diesel generator would have increased the LCOE by 49 %. Additionally, the LSTM-CNN model minimized financial losses, achieving the lowest penalties and maximizing net cash flow compared to other models, demonstrating its overall technical and economic superiority.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2026

Phase Picking Beyond Local Distances: Where Waveform Filtering Still Matters for Deep Learning Models

Waveform filtering is a standard step in traditional seismic phase picking but often receives little attention in deep learning workflows, where models are typically trained on raw or minimally processed waveforms. Although this strategy performs well for local events, we show that performance can degrade substantially at regional distances. To address this limitation, we introduce two ways to incorporate multiband-filtered waveforms into deep learning phase pickers. The stacking approach concatenates filtered inputs along the channel dimension, while the branching approach processes each frequency band through a dedicated network branch before feature fusion. Both approaches can substantially improve performance across epicentral distances of 0° to 20°, but their effectiveness depends strongly on the selected frequency bands. Tests with multiple filter banks show that filter-bank design should be treated as part of model optimization rather than as a fixed preprocessing choice. Grad-CAM analysis of the branching model indicates that band importance varies among waveform samples and across training realizations, with only a weak overall preference for the 0.25 to 0.5 Hz band. These results show that no single filter band is consistently optimal and demonstrate that explicit feature engineering remains valuable for robust deep learning-based seismic phase picking.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mixture-of-Experts for Multi-Domain Defect Identification in Non-Destructive Inspection

Composite materials are widely used in aircraft structures because of their superior mechanical properties. However, their complex failure modes require sophisticated inspection methods to ensure structural integrity. Ultrasonic testing (UT) is a common non-destructive inspection (NDI) technique for aircraft composites that can detect internal and external defects with high resolution and accuracy. Despite their effectiveness, traditional UT methods rely on the manual interpretation of ultrasonic signals, which is time-consuming, labor-intensive, and subjective. Furthermore, processing such large-scale data, particularly across materials of varying thicknesses, significantly increases the computational demands of deep learning model optimization. To overcome these challenges, we propose an efficient sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) model with a multi-level loss function and introduce four novel training objectives to improve computational efficiency and accuracy in identifying surface defects in composite aircraft materials. Here, we evaluated our approach on material with multiple thicknesses or domains comprising various defects. Our experimental results demonstrate higher accuracy and F1-Score, with only 10% training epochs compared to baseline MoE.

composite materials↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy storage in combined gas-electric energy transitions models: The case of California

California’s vision for a net-zero future by 2045 relies heavily on variable renewable energy systems. Thus, energy storage - particularly long-duration storage - could play a fundamental role in reliably supplying low-carbon electricity. We study energy storage using the BRIDGES model, a combined gas-electric capacity expansion model for California across multiple investment periods (2025-2045), modeled with progressively decreasing carbon emission targets to a zero emissions by 2045. This least-cost optimization model includes renewable gas production via power-to-gas, long-term storage of energy in gaseous form, electric energy storage such as through batteries and hydrogen storage, and renewable energy generation, all with capacity tracking and investment. Multiple scenarios are evaluated to examine the sensitivity of the optimal storage portfolio to system-level and sector-level parameters. The scenario results show that all electric energy storage systems - which vary in storage duration - are deployed and required in a net-zero California in 2045, amounting to around 75 GW of storage capacity. Lithium ion systems make up approximately 80% of this power capacity and supply most short-run storage needs. Hydrogen storage - in the form of a power-to-gas-to-power system - emerges as a replacement to conventional natural gas storage, comprising most of the total energy storage capacity (~ 4 TWh). This capacity is less than 5% of the current natural gas storage capacity (94 TWh), indicating sufficient room for repurposing part of the gas infrastructure. A demand-side sensitivity analysis proves that higher electricity demand correlates with more builds of Li-ion batteries, while higher industrial heat demand leads to more builds of long-duration storage systems in a net-zero economy. Furthermore, power-to-gas systems satisfy part of the industrial heat demand by locally supplying renewable gas, which overtakes the traditional centralized gas storage and transfers through pipelines, casting significant doubts on the future of the large-scale gas infrastructure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inference of phase field fracture models

The phase field approach to modeling fracture uses a diffuse damage field to represent cracks. This representation mollifies singularities that arise in computations with sharp interface models and some of the resultant difficulties in the mathematical and numerical treatment of fracture. Phase field fracture models have proven effective at representing crack propagation, branching, and merging. Specific formulations, beginning with brittle fracture, have also been shown to converge to classical solutions. Extensions to cover the range of material failure, including ductile and cohesive fracture, lead to an array of possible models. There exists a large body of literature focusing on this class of models and on the impact of model form on the predicted crack evolution. However, there have not been systematic studies into how optimal models may be chosen. Here, we take a first step in this direction by developing formal methods for identification of the best parsimonious model of phase field fracture given full-field data on the damage and deformation fields. We consider some of the main models that have been used for the degradation of elastic response due to damage and its propagation. Our approach builds upon Variational System Identification (VSI), a weak form variant of the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy). Furthermore, in this first communication we focus on synthetically generated data but we also consider central issues associated with the use of experimental full-field data, such as data sparsity and noise.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of Steady-State and Dynamic Mass and Energy Constrained Neural Networks for Distributed Chemical Systems Using Noisy Transient Data

The paper presents the development of algorithms for mass and energy constrained neural network models that can exactly conserve the overall mass and energy of distributed chemical process systems, even though the noisy transient data used for optimal model training violate the same. In contrast to approximately satisfying mass and energy balance constraints of a system by soft penalization of objective function, algorithms have been developed for solving equality-constrained nonlinear optimization problems, thus providing the guarantee of exactly satisfying the system mass and energy conservation laws. For developing dynamic mass-energy constrained network models for distributed systems, hybrid series and parallel dynamic-static neural networks have been leveraged. The developed algorithms for solving both the training and forward problems are validated using both steady-state and dynamic data in the presence of various noise characteristics. The developed data-driven algorithms are flexible to exactly satisfy mass and energy balance constraints for dynamic chemical processes if the system holdup information is available. The proposed network structures and algorithms are applied to the development of data-driven lumped and distributed models of an adiabatic superheater/reheater system, a nonisothermal continuous stirred tank reactor, as well as an electrically heated plug-flow reactor system where one form of energy gets transformed to another. It has been observed that the mass-energy constrained neural networks yield a root mean squared error of <1% with respect to the system truth for the case studies evaluated in this work.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗