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Statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature and ozone profile data for trends and model comparison

Work performed during the project period July 1, 1990 to June 30, 1992 on the statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature data, rawinsonde temperature data, and ozone profile data for the detection of trends is described. Our principal topics of research are trend analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data over the period 1978-1989; trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data for the period 1964-1988; trend analysis of Umkehr ozone profile data for the period 1977-1991; and comparison of observed ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere. Analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data indicates the existence of large negative trends at 0.4 mb level, with magnitudes increasing with latitudes away from the equator. Trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data over 184 stations shows significant positive trends about 0.2 C per decade at surface to 500 mb range, decreasing to negative trends about -0.3 C at 100 to 50 mb range, and increasing slightly at 30 mb level. There is little evidence of seasonal variation in trends. Analysis of Umkehr ozone data for 12 northern hemispheric stations shows significant negative trends about -.5 percent per year in Umkehr layers 7-9 and layer 3, but somewhat less negative trends in layers 4-6. There is no pronounced seasonal variation in trends, especially in layers 4-9. A comparison was made of empirical temperature trends from rawinsonde data in the lower stratosphere with temperature changes determined from a one-dimensional radiative transfer calculation that prescribed a given ozone change over the altitude region, surface to 50 km, obtained from trend analysis of ozonsonde and Umkehr profile data. The empirical and calculated temperature trends are found in substantive agreement in profile shape and magnitude.

Tiao, G. C.

Comparison of modeled backscatter with SAR data at P-band

In recent years several analytical models were developed to predict microwave scattering by trees and forest canopies. These models contribute to the understanding of radar backscatter over forested regions to the extent that they capture the basic interactions between microwave radiation and tree canopies, understories, and ground layers as functions of incidence angle, wavelength, and polarization. The Santa Barbara microwave model backscatter model for woodland (i.e. with discontinuous tree canopies) combines a single-tree backscatter model and a gap probability model. Comparison of model predictions with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and L-band (lambda = 0.235 m) is promising, but much work is still needed to test the validity of model predictions at other wavelengths. The validity of the model predictions at P-band (lambda = 0.68 m) for woodland stands at our Mt. Shasta test site was tested.

Wang, Yong

Plasma expansion and evolution of density perturbations in the polar wind - Comparison of semikinetic and transport models

Comparisons are made between transport and semikinetic models in a study of the time evolution of plasma density perturbations in the polar wind. The situations modeled include plasma expansion into a low-density region and time evolution of localized density enhancements and cavities. The results show that the semikinetic model generally yields smoother profiles in density, drift velocity, and ion temperature than the transport model, principally because of ion velocity dispersion. While shocks frequently develop in the results of the transport model, they do not occur in the semikinetic results. In addition, in the semikinetic results, two ion streams, or double-humped distributions, frequently develop. In the transport model results the bulk parameters, at a given time, often have a one-to-one correspondence in the locations of their local minima or maxima. This is a consequence of the coupling of the fluid equations. There is, however, no such relationship among the moments produced by the semikinetic model where the local moment maxima and minima are often shifted in altitude. In general, incorporation of enhanced heat fluxes in the transport model leads to somewhat improved agreement with the semikinetic results.

Ho, C. W.

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha′apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison (HTHH-MOC) project: experiment protocol and model descriptions

The 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption injected a significant amount of water vapor and a moderate amount of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, causing observable responses in the climate system. We have developed a model–observation comparison project to investigate the evolution of volcanic water and aerosols and their impacts on atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and climate, using several state-of-the-art chemistry climate models. The project goals are (1) to evaluate the current chemistry–climate models to quantify their performance in comparison to observations and (2) to understand atmospheric responses in the Earth system after this exceptional event and investigate the potential impacts in the projected future. To achieve these goals, we designed specific experiments for direct comparisons to observations, for example from balloons and the Microwave Limb Sounder satellite instrument. Experiment 1 consists of two sets of free-running ensemble experiments from 2022 to 2031: one with fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice and one with coupled ocean. These experiments will help to understand the long-term evolution of water vapor and aerosols; quantify HTHH effects on stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures, dynamics, and transport; understand the impact of dynamic changes on ozone chemistry; quantify the net radiative forcings; and evaluate any surface climate impact. Experiment 2 is a nudged-run experiment from 2022 to 2023 using observed meteorology. To allow participation of more climate models with varying complexities of aerosol simulation, we include two sets of simulations in Experiment 2: Experiment 2a is designed for models with internally generated aerosol, while Experiment 2b is designed for models using prescribed aerosol surface area density. This experiment will help to analyze H 2 O and aerosol evolution, quantify the net radiative forcings, understand the impacts on mid-latitude and polar O 3 chemistry, and allow close comparisons with observations.

Zhu, Yunqian [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Unit

Further comparison of wind tunnel and airplane acoustic data for advanced design high speed propeller models

Comparisons were made between the SR-2 and SR-3 model propeller noise data taken in the NASA 8-by-6 wind tunnel, in the United Technologies Research Center (UTRC) anechoic tunnel, and with boom and fuselage microphones on the NASA Jetstar airplane. Plots of peak blade passage tone noise versus helical tip Mach number generally showed good agreement. The levels of the airplane fuselage data were somewhat lower than the boom data by an approximately uniform value. The curve shapes were similar except for the UTRC data which was flatter than the other sets. This was attributed to the UTRC data being taken at constant power while the other data were taken at constant advance ratio. General curves of the peak blade passage tone versus helical tip Mach number fit through all the data are also presented. Directivity shape comparisons at the cruise condition were similar for the airplane and 8-by-6 tunnel data. The UTRC data peaked farther forward but, when an angle correction was made for the different axial Mach number used in the UTRC tests, the shape was similar to the others. The general agreement of the data from the four configurations enables the formation of a good consensus of the noise from these propellers.

Dittmar, J. H.

SWCX Emission from the Helium Focusing Cone - Model to Data Comparison

A model for heliospheric solar wind charge exchange (SWCX) X-ray emission is applied to a series of XMM-Newton observations of the interplanetary focusing cone of interstellar helium. The X-ray data are from three coupled observations of the South Ecliptic Pole (SEP, to observe the cone) and the Hubble Deep Field-North (HDFN. to monitor global variations of the SWCX emission due to variations in the solar wind) from the period 24 November to 15 December 2003. There is good qualitative agreement between the model predictions and thc data with the maximum SWCX flux observed at an ecliptic longitude of approx. 72deg, consistent with the central longitude of the He cone. We observe a total excess of 2.1 +/- 1.3 LU in the O VII line and 2.0 +/- 0.9 LU in the 0 VIII line. However. the SWCX emission model, which was adjusted for solar wind conditions appropriate for late 2003, predicts an excess from the He cone of only 0.5 LU and 0.2 LU, respectively, in the O VII and O VIII lines. We discuss thc model to data comparison and provide possible explanations for the discrepancies. We also qualitatively reexamine our SWCX n~ocicl predictions in the 1/4 keV band with data from the ROSAT All-Sky Survey towards the North and South Ecliptic Poles, when the He cone was probably first detected in soft X-rays.

Koutroumpa, D.

Bayesian model-data comparison incorporating theoretical uncertainties

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of properly accounting for theoretical uncertainties. In this Letter, we present a Bayesian framework that explicitly quantifies these uncertainties by statistically modeling theory errors, guided by qualitative knowledge of a theory’s varying reliability across the input domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using two systems: a simple ball drop experiment and multi-stage heavy-ion simulations. In both cases incorporating model discrepancy leads to improved parameter estimates, with systematic improvements observed as additional experimental observables are integrated.

Bayesian methods

International Space Station Centrifuge Rotor Models A Comparison of the Euler-Lagrange and the Bond Graph Modeling Approach

The assembly and operation of the International Space Station (ISS) require extensive testing and engineering analysis to verify that the Space Station system of systems would work together without any adverse interactions. Since the dynamic behavior of an entire Space Station cannot be tested on earth, math models of the Space Station structures and mechanical systems have to be built and integrated in computer simulations and analysis tools to analyze and predict what will happen in space. The ISS Centrifuge Rotor (CR) is one of many mechanical systems that need to be modeled and analyzed to verify the ISS integrated system performance on-orbit. This study investigates using Bond Graph modeling techniques as quick and simplified ways to generate models of the ISS Centrifuge Rotor. This paper outlines the steps used to generate simple and more complex models of the CR using Bond Graph Computer Aided Modeling Program with Graphical Input (CAMP-G). Comparisons of the Bond Graph CR models with those derived from Euler-Lagrange equations in MATLAB and those developed using multibody dynamic simulation at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) are presented to demonstrate the usefulness of the Bond Graph modeling approach for aeronautics and space applications.

Nguyen, Louis H.