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DOE OSTI2024

Photo- and Electro-Induced Hadron Production from Nuclei at Jefferson Laboratory

Understanding many-body knockout processes is crucial for nuclear physics, particularly in photo- and electro-induced reactions. In turn, understanding two- and three-body forces, including higher-order forces, is vital for a complete understanding of atoms. We present photo-induced many-proton knockout processes, with multiplicities from 1 to 6, using 12C, CH2, and C4H9OH targets in the g9a FROST dataset. Our analysis covers photon energies from 600 to 4500 MeV, significantly expanding current world data. Comparing our experimental data to the state-of-the-art GiBUU model offers a new challenge in the model’s theoretical description of many-body processes. GiBUU reasonably describes the data at lower photon energies but struggles at higher energies and missing masses, likely due to missing processes, such as initial 3-pion photoproduction. Our results will inform future developments in describing proton knockout processes, indicating GiBUU’s overall reasonable description of many-proton knockout data up to around 2.2 GeV. We also assess various electro-induced reactions using 2D, 12C, and 40Ar targets in the RGM dataset. Our results, obtained at electron beam energies of 2, 4, and 6 GeV, are compared in detail to GENIE and GiBUU, two widely used theory models in neutrino oscillation experiments. Discrepancies between model predictions and experimental data underscore the need for refining the two theoretical models. Despite discrepancies, GiBUU provides a more accurate modelling of electro-induced reactions, especially for 40Ar - crucial for future neutrino oscillation facilities such as DUNE. Understanding the fundamental nuclear physics involved in neutrino-nuclei interactions is essential for reducing the systematic uncertainties in extracting neutrino oscillation parameters. Many-body processes significantly contribute to the background processes observed in neutrino-nuclei interactions, hence the results from both analyses are crucial for developing the theoretical framework for the underlying nuclear physics.

Williams, Rhidian↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Hydrological Cycle and Ocean Circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Mid-Pliocene: Results From PlioMIP2

The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Piacenzian warm period of the Pliocene (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ∼ 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land–sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mPWP and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to the preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mPWP climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with the preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with the preindustrial. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean (MCM), which is based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and data. We find that models, which reproduce modern MC climate well, are not always good at simulating the mPWP climate anomaly of the MC. By comparing with individual models, the MMM and MCM reproduce the preindustrial sea surface temperature (SST) of the reanalysis better than most individual models and produce less discrepancy with reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) than most individual models in the MC. In addition, the clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensembles that include similar models.

Hydrological cycle↗

DOE OSTI2023

High Values of the Arctic Amplification in the Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation

Arctic Amplification (AA) in the first decade of the 21st century has reached values between 4 and 5, with a subsequent decrease to current values of about 3.6, while the value was from 2 to 3 during the twentieth century. The ensemble mean of the CMIP6 models has difficulty in reproducing the recently observed high values of the AA. In this report, we identify the main reason for this difficulty to be the CMIP6 models overestimate of the mean global temperature trend since about 1990. The largest values of the AA are observed in winter and spring. A sharp AA peak in 1987 spring was caused by a peak in the Arctic temperature trend occurring at the same time as a dip in the trend of mean global temperature. The winter AA has increased almost monotonically since 1990. Dividing the AA between the Arctic land and ocean areas shows that the ocean area makes a larger contribution to the AA. Our future projection of the AA suggests an increasing AA for about the next decade, followed by a slow decrease to about 3.5 in the 2050s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of toroidal rotation on the resistive ballooning modes in ASDEX Upgrade tokamak

Abstract In this work, we investigate the behavior of instabilities appearing between type-I edge localized modes (ELMs), with increasing neutral beam injection (NBI) power concomitant increase in toroidal rotation, and compare it to the modeling result of the linear magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) code CASTOR3D. An injection of one NBI beam, increasing toroidal rotation, results in the mode slowing down from 12 kHz to 7 kHz, and its associated radial displacement decreases from 5 mm to 3.5 mm. In addition, modes shift radially outwards towards higher q , decreasing their poloidal mode numbers. The mode velocity is measured to be close to the E × B velocity with significant uncertainties. Through a set of CASTOR3D simulations with varying profiles, resistivity has been identified as the primary contributor to the growth rates. Only a small stabilizing effect due to toroidal rotation has been observed. While experimental results show a decrease of mode frequency with rotation, the opposite trend is observed in modeling. Reasons for discrepancies between modeling and experiment are discussed. Nevertheless, a main contributor to the mode frequency has been identified to be rotation velocity. CASTOR3D classifies modes as resistive ballooning modes as they do not appear unstable in ideal MHD.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

High Values of the Arctic Amplification in Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Validation of wind resource and energy production simulations for small wind turbines in the United States

Abstract. Due to financial and temporal limitations, the small wind community relies upon simplified wind speed models and energy production simulation tools to assess site suitability and produce energy generation expectations. While efficient and user-friendly, these models and tools are subject to errors that have been insufficiently quantified at small wind turbine heights. This study leverages observations from meteorological towers and sodars across the United States to validate wind speed estimates from the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), revealing average biases within ±0.5 m s−1 at small wind hub heights. Observations from small wind turbines across the United States provide references for validating energy production estimates from the System Advisor Model (SAM), Wind Report, MyWindTurbine.com, and Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), which are seen to overestimate actual annual capacity factors by 2.5, 4.2, 11.5, and 7.3 percentage points, respectively. In addition to quantifying the error metrics, this paper identifies sources of model and tool discrepancies, noting that interannual fluctuation in the wind resource, wind speed class, and loss assumptions produces more variability in estimates than different horizontal and vertical interpolation techniques. The results of this study provide small wind installers and owners with information about these challenges to consider when making performance estimates and thus possible adjustments accordingly. Looking to the future, recognizing these error metrics and sources of discrepancies provides model and tool researchers and developers with opportunities for product improvement that could positively impact small wind customer confidence and the ability to finance small wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1996

Modeling the low-altitude trapped radiation environment

The predictions of models of trapped energetic particle radiation at low altitudes, including the NASA trapped radiation models, are compared with low altitude measurements of energetic protons and electrons. Knowledge of the trapped energetic particle radiation at low altitudes in the vicinity of the south Atlantic magnetic anomaly is considered to be important for the analysis of the space environmental effects on space systems in this region. The long term trends in the observations are generally consistent with the NASA trapped radiation models. The discrepancies between the models and observations are currently being investigated using a 3D diffusive model and realistic atmospheric and magnetic field models. The requirements for future work and development of low altitude trapped radiation environment models are discussed.

Fung, Shing F.↗

NASA NTRS2010

An Accident Precursor Analysis Process Tailored for NASA Space Systems

Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system and which may differ in frequency or type from those in the various models. These discrepancies between the models (perceived risk) and the system (actual risk) provide the leading indication of an underappreciated risk. This paper presents an APA process developed specifically for NASA Earth-to-Orbit space systems. The purpose of the process is to identify and characterize potential sources of system risk as evidenced by anomalous events which, although not necessarily presenting an immediate safety impact, may indicate that an unknown or insufficiently understood risk-significant condition exists in the system. Such anomalous events are considered accident precursors because they signal the potential for severe consequences that may occur in the future, due to causes that are discernible from their occurrence today. Their early identification allows them to be integrated into the overall system risk model used to intbrm decisions relating to safety.

Groen, Frank↗

NASA NTRS2016

Near-Infrared Spectroscopy of the Y0 WISEP J173835.52+273258.9 and the Y1 WISE J035000.32-565830.2: the Importance of Non-Equilibrium Chemistry

We present new near-infrared spectra, obtained at Gemini Observatory, for two Y dwarfs: WISE J035000.32−565830.2 (W0350) and WISEP J173835.52+273258.9 (W1738). A FLAMINGOS-2 R = 540 spectrum was obtained for W0350, covering 1.0 < λ micrometer < 1.7, and a cross-dispersed GNIRS R = 2800 spectrum was obtained for W1738, covering 0.993 - 1.087 micrometer, 1.191 - 1.305 micrometer, 1.589 - 1.631 micrometer, and 1.985 - 2.175 micrometer, in four orders. We also present revised Y JH photometry for W1738, using new NIRI Y and J imaging, and a re-analysis of the previously published NIRI H band images. We compare these data, together with previously published data for late-T and Y dwarfs, to cloud-free models of solar metallicity, calculated both in chemical equilibrium and with disequilibrium driven by vertical transport. We find that for the Y dwarfs the non-equilibrium models reproduce the near-infrared data better than the equilibrium models. The remaining discrepancies suggest that fine-tuning the CH4/CO and NH3/N2 balance is needed. Improved trigonometric parallaxes would improve the analysis. Despite the uncertainties and discrepancies, the models reproduce the observed near-infrared spectra well. We find that for the Y0, W1738, T(sub eff) = 425 +/- 25K and log g = 4.0 +/- 0.25, and for the Y1, W0350, T(sub eff) = 350 +/- 25K and log g = 4.0 +/- 0.25. W1738 may be metal-rich. Based on evolutionary models, these temperatures and gravities correspond to a mass range for both Y dwarfs of 3 - 9 Jupiter masses, with W0350 being a cooler, slightly older, version of W1738; the age of W0350 is 0.3 - 3 Gyr, and the age of W1738 is 0.15 - 1 Gyr.

two Y dwarfs↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of Classical Theories of Dendritic Growth Kinetics Applied to Nickel-Based Alloys

The solidification velocity in a model nickel-alloy single crystal during laser spot melting was recently characterized using synchrotron X-ray imaging. The measured solidification velocity was found to exceed the absolute stability threshold predicted by the Kurz-Giovanola-Trivedi (KGT) model. The discrepancies between the model and experiments motivate the further assessment of accurate material properties. This work quantifies the impact material property uncertainty has on model predictions of the absolute stability threshold velocities. Properties from the literature are reviewed and compared to those calculated using computational thermodynamics to provide uncertainty estimates on input properties to the KGT model. Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of each uncertain input property on the predicted threshold velocity. This work supports the understanding of the nickel-alloy solidification during powder bed fusion additive manufacturing and identifies the solidification material properties that are the most important to assess from first-principles computations and experiments.

Computational thermodynamics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Study of the muon component in the core-corona model using CONEX 3D

The discrepancy between models and data regarding the muon content in air showers generated by ultra-high energy cosmic rays still needs to be solved. The CONEX simulation framework provides a flexible tool to assess the impact of different interaction properties and thus address the muon puzzle. In this work, we present the multidimensional extension of CONEX and show its performance compared to CORSIKA by discussing muon-related air-shower features for three experiments: KASCADE, IceTop, and the Pierre Auger Observatory. We also implement an effective version of the core-corona model to demonstrate the impact of the core effect, as observed at the LHC, on the muon content in air showers produced by ultra-high energy cosmic rays. At a primary energy of E$_{0}$ = 10$^{19}$ eV, we obtain an increase of 15% to 20% in the muon content.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2000

Intercomparison of Models Representing Direct Shortwave Radiative Forcing by Sulfate Aerosols

The importance of aerosols as agents of climate change has recently been highlighted. However, the magnitude of aerosol forcing by scattering of shortwave radiation (direct forcing) is still very uncertain even for the relatively well characterized sulfate aerosol. A potential source of uncertainty is in the model representation of aerosol optical properties and aerosol influences on radiative transfer in the atmosphere. Although radiative transfer methods and codes have been compared in the past, these comparisons have not focused on aerosol forcing (change in net radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere). Here we report results of a project involving 12 groups using 15 models to examine radiative forcing by sulfate aerosol for a wide range of values of particle radius, aerosol optical depth, surface albedo, and solar zenith angle. Among the models that were employed were high and low spectral resolution models incorporating a variety of radiative transfer approximations as well as a line-by-line model. The normalized forcings (forcing per sulfate column burden) obtained with the several radiative transfer models were examined, and the discrepancies were characterized. All models simulate forcings of comparable amplitude and exhibit a similar dependence on input parameters. As expected for a non-light-absorbing aerosol, forcings were negative (cooling influence) except at high surface albedo combined with small solar zenith angle. The relative standard deviation of the zenith-angle-averaged normalized broadband forcing for 15 models-was 8% for particle radius near the maximum in this forcing (approx. 0.2 microns) and at low surface albedo. Somewhat greater model-to-model discrepancies were exhibited at specific solar zenith angles. Still greater discrepancies were exhibited at small particle radii and much greater discrepancies were exhibited at high surface albedos, at which the forcing changes sign; in these situations, however, the normalized forcing is quite small quite small. Discrepancies among the models arise from inaccuracies in Mie calculations, differing treatment of the angular scattering phase function, differing wavelength and angular resolution, and differing treatment of multiple scattering. These results imply the need for standardized radiative transfer methods tailored to the direct aerosol forcing problem. However, the relatively small spread in these results suggests that the uncertainty in forcing arising from the treatment of radiative forcing of a well-characterized aerosol at well-specified surface albedo is smaller than some of the other sources of uncertainty in estimates of direct forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols and anthropogenic aerosols generally.

Boucher, O.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Closed coronal structures. III - Comparison of static models with X-ray, EUV, and radio observations

Numerical models of static coronal loops in energy balance are compared with high spatial resolution observations of extreme ultraviolet lines, broad-band X-ray emission, and interferometric observations at 2.8 cm of a solar active region. Difficulties of using scaling laws to test static models of coronal loops are reviewed. The theoretical model used for the comparison is summarized; the detailed X-ray, EUV, and microwave observations of the selected active region are presented; and the comparison of the model with the observations is performed. It is shown that simple static models with conductive flux vanishing at the loop base reproduce satisfactorily the observed properties in the upper portion of loop structures from compact, high-pressure loops in the core of the region to more extended, fainter loops and to large-scale loops interconnecting different active regions. Effects of changing loop parameters are investigated, and it is argued, that in contrast to the present approach, scaling laws cannot be used to discriminate between different static energy balance models. Some discrepancy is found between model predictions and observations for the lower sections of loop structures. Possible causes of the discrepancy are discussed.

Pallavicini, R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation Framework for Imperfect Data and Models [Abstract]

Nuclear data evaluation methods conventionally make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate for minimization of a cost function (even for non-linear models); and that both the model (of, e.g., neutron cross section) and experimental data (including their covariance data) are perfect. These assumptions are inherent to the well-known generalized linear least squares (GLLS) minimization method commonly used for evaluations of resolved resonance region (RRR) neutron cross sections. However, these assumptions are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, non-linear models (e.g. R -matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g. discrepant data sets, discrepancies between the previous evaluation and newly measured data, or imperfect covariance data). We remove the said assumptions in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, and implement it using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Parameters of a new kind are introduced to parameterize inherent imperfections, e.g. , any discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data. These new parameters enable evaluators to quantify their expert judgement about any discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. We demonstrate the framework with an ongoing evaluation of 233 U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII library and transmission data measured by Guber, et al. , and compare the posterior parameters to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning-based Bayesian framework for high-resolution calibration of building energy models

Calibrating building energy models (BEMs), i.e., closing discrepancy between modeling and field measurements, is of significance to support its applications in building sustainability and resilience analysis. However, as being widely used in practice, current Bayesian calibration is mostly performed in low-resolution (annual or monthly), instead of high-resolution (hourly or sub-hourly), which is crucial to support emerging BEM applications, such as building-renewable energy integration (demand response) and smart control. This is attributable to the gaps in current Bayesian calibration process, including (1) difficulty in supporting reliable high-resolution calibration with over-parameterization and multi-solution issues, (2) inadequacy of meta-model to capture temporal building dynamics in high-resolution, and (3) excessive computational burdens of covariance matrix calculation in Bayesian inference. Therefore, to close these gaps, this research proposes a novel deep learning-based Bayesian calibration framework, involving pre-calibration mechanism, Long Short-Term Memory as surrogate models, and simplified covariance matrix calculation, to calibrate BEMs in high temporal resolution (i.e., hourly) with enhanced accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the case study demonstrates its effectiveness to match modeling outcomes with measurements and realize CV-RMSE of < 30 % and NMBE of < 6 % in hourly resolution, as well as a significant reduction of calibration time (by > 99 %, from > 600 h to ~ 1.5 h).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1994

The luminosity function for stars with minus 0.6 less than or equal to M (sub nu) less than or equal to 6.5 in the globular cluster M30: Is there a problem with stellar evolution models?

The V band luminosity function (LF) for stars ranging from the tip of the giant branch to approximately 2.5 mag fainter than the main-sequence turnoff (MSTO) in M30 (=NGC 7099, GC 2137-234) is derived from CCD observations. Comparison with the theoretical LFs of Bergbusch & VandenBerg (1992) for (M/H) = -2, 16 Gyr models shows discrepancies which can be described either of two ways: (1) If the observations are normalized to the models over a few magnitudes fainter than the MSTO, then there is an excess (N (sub obs) greater than N(sub predicted)) of subgiant stars within 0.5 mag of the MSTO at the level of 4.8 sigma and an excess of stars (approximately 20%) compared to the models all along the giant branch. (2) If the normalization is made to match predicted and observed numbers of stars on the giant branch, then there is a discrepancy between models and observations in the sense that there is a broad depression in the observed LF fainter than the MSTO that is not present in the models. Consideration of LFs generated from 12 Gyr models or models adjusted to a shorter (m - M)(sub nu) = 14.5) distance modulus diminishes the magnitude of some of these discrepancies but introduces other mismatches between the observations and models. LFs constructed from stellar models that have 10% of the stellar mass in an isothermal core qualitatively match the observations better than the 'standard' models.

Bolte, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2019

Perspective on identifying and characterizing the processes controlling iron speciation and residence time at the atmosphere-ocean interface

It is well recognized that the atmospheric deposition of iron (Fe) affects ocean productivity, atmospheric CO 2 uptake, ecosystem diversity, and overall climate. Despite significant advances in measurement techniques and modeling efforts, discrepancies persist between observations and models that hinder accurate predictions of processes and their global effects. Here, we provide an assessment report on where the current state of knowledge is and where future research emphasis would have the highest impact in furthering the field of Fe atmosphere-ocean biogeochemical cycle. These results were determined through consensus reached by diverse researchers from the oceanographic and atmospheric science communities with backgrounds in laboratory and in situ measurements, modeling, and remote sensing. We discuss i) novel measurement methodologies and instrumentation that allow detection and speciation of different forms and oxidation states of Fe in deliquesced mineral aerosol, cloud/rainwater, and seawater; ii) oceanic models that treat Fe cycling with several external sources and sinks, dissolved, colloidal, particulate, inorganic, and organic ligand-complexed forms of Fe, as well as Fe in detritus and phytoplankton; and iii) atmospheric models that consider natural and anthropogenic sources of Fe, mobilization of Fe in mineral aerosols due to the dissolution of Fe-oxides and Fe-substituted aluminosilicates through proton-promoted, organic ligand-promoted, and photo-reductive mechanisms. In addition, the study identifies existing challenges and disconnects (both fundamental and methodological) such as i) inconsistencies in Fe nomenclature and the definition of bioavailable Fe between oceanic and atmospheric disciplines, and ii) the lack of characterization of the processes controlling Fe speciation and residence time at the atmosphere-ocean interface. Such challenges are undoubtedly caused by extremely low concentrations, short lifetime, and the myriad of physical, (photo)chemical, and biological processes affecting global biogeochemical cycling of Fe. However, we also argue that the historical division (separate treatment of Fe biogeochemistry in oceanic and atmospheric disciplines) and the classical funding structures (that often create obstacles for transdisciplinary collaboration) are also hampering the advancement of knowledge in the field. Finally, the study provides some specific ideas and guidelines for laboratory studies, field measurements, and modeling research required for improved characterization of global biogeochemical cycling of Fe in relationship with other trace elements and essential nutrients. In conclusion, the report is intended to aid scientists in their work related to Fe biogeochemistry as well as program managers at the relevant funding agencies

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Revisiting particle dry deposition and its role in radiative effect estimates

Wet and dry deposition remove aerosols from the atmosphere, and these processes control aerosol lifetime and thus impact climate and air quality. Dry deposition is a significant source of aerosol uncertainty in global chemical transport and climate models. Dry deposition parameterizations in most global models were developed when few particle deposition measurements were available. However, new measurement techniques have enabled more size-resolved particle flux observations. We combined literature measurements with data that we collected over a grassland in Oklahoma and a pine forest in Colorado to develop a dry deposition parameterization. We find that relative to observations, previous parameterizations overestimated deposition of the accumulation and Aitken mode particles, and underestimated in the coarse mode. These systematic differences in observed and modeled accumulation mode particle deposition velocities are as large as an order of magnitude over terrestrial ecosystems. As accumulation mode particles form most of the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that influence the indirect radiative effect, this model-measurement discrepancy in dry deposition alters modeled CCN and radiative forcing. We present a revised observationally driven parameterization for regional and global aerosol models. Using this revised dry deposition scheme in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-Chem chemical transport model, we find that global surface accumulation-mode number concentrations increase by 62% and enhance the global combined anthropogenic and natural aerosol indirect effect by −0.63 W m −2 . Our observationally constrained approach should reduce the uncertainty of particle dry deposition in global chemical transport models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗