SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model discrepancy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

High Values of the Arctic Amplification in the Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation

Arctic Amplification (AA) in the first decade of the 21st century has reached values between 4 and 5, with a subsequent decrease to current values of about 3.6, while the value was from 2 to 3 during the twentieth century. The ensemble mean of the CMIP6 models has difficulty in reproducing the recently observed high values of the AA. In this report, we identify the main reason for this difficulty to be the CMIP6 models overestimate of the mean global temperature trend since about 1990. The largest values of the AA are observed in winter and spring. A sharp AA peak in 1987 spring was caused by a peak in the Arctic temperature trend occurring at the same time as a dip in the trend of mean global temperature. The winter AA has increased almost monotonically since 1990. Dividing the AA between the Arctic land and ocean areas shows that the ocean area makes a larger contribution to the AA. Our future projection of the AA suggests an increasing AA for about the next decade, followed by a slow decrease to about 3.5 in the 2050s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of toroidal rotation on the resistive ballooning modes in ASDEX Upgrade tokamak

Abstract In this work, we investigate the behavior of instabilities appearing between type-I edge localized modes (ELMs), with increasing neutral beam injection (NBI) power concomitant increase in toroidal rotation, and compare it to the modeling result of the linear magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) code CASTOR3D. An injection of one NBI beam, increasing toroidal rotation, results in the mode slowing down from 12 kHz to 7 kHz, and its associated radial displacement decreases from 5 mm to 3.5 mm. In addition, modes shift radially outwards towards higher q , decreasing their poloidal mode numbers. The mode velocity is measured to be close to the E × B velocity with significant uncertainties. Through a set of CASTOR3D simulations with varying profiles, resistivity has been identified as the primary contributor to the growth rates. Only a small stabilizing effect due to toroidal rotation has been observed. While experimental results show a decrease of mode frequency with rotation, the opposite trend is observed in modeling. Reasons for discrepancies between modeling and experiment are discussed. Nevertheless, a main contributor to the mode frequency has been identified to be rotation velocity. CASTOR3D classifies modes as resistive ballooning modes as they do not appear unstable in ideal MHD.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

High Values of the Arctic Amplification in Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Validation of wind resource and energy production simulations for small wind turbines in the United States

Abstract. Due to financial and temporal limitations, the small wind community relies upon simplified wind speed models and energy production simulation tools to assess site suitability and produce energy generation expectations. While efficient and user-friendly, these models and tools are subject to errors that have been insufficiently quantified at small wind turbine heights. This study leverages observations from meteorological towers and sodars across the United States to validate wind speed estimates from the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), revealing average biases within ±0.5 m s−1 at small wind hub heights. Observations from small wind turbines across the United States provide references for validating energy production estimates from the System Advisor Model (SAM), Wind Report, MyWindTurbine.com, and Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), which are seen to overestimate actual annual capacity factors by 2.5, 4.2, 11.5, and 7.3 percentage points, respectively. In addition to quantifying the error metrics, this paper identifies sources of model and tool discrepancies, noting that interannual fluctuation in the wind resource, wind speed class, and loss assumptions produces more variability in estimates than different horizontal and vertical interpolation techniques. The results of this study provide small wind installers and owners with information about these challenges to consider when making performance estimates and thus possible adjustments accordingly. Looking to the future, recognizing these error metrics and sources of discrepancies provides model and tool researchers and developers with opportunities for product improvement that could positively impact small wind customer confidence and the ability to finance small wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Study of the muon component in the core-corona model using CONEX 3D

The discrepancy between models and data regarding the muon content in air showers generated by ultra-high energy cosmic rays still needs to be solved. The CONEX simulation framework provides a flexible tool to assess the impact of different interaction properties and thus address the muon puzzle. In this work, we present the multidimensional extension of CONEX and show its performance compared to CORSIKA by discussing muon-related air-shower features for three experiments: KASCADE, IceTop, and the Pierre Auger Observatory. We also implement an effective version of the core-corona model to demonstrate the impact of the core effect, as observed at the LHC, on the muon content in air showers produced by ultra-high energy cosmic rays. At a primary energy of E$_{0}$ = 10$^{19}$ eV, we obtain an increase of 15% to 20% in the muon content.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation Framework for Imperfect Data and Models [Abstract]

Nuclear data evaluation methods conventionally make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate for minimization of a cost function (even for non-linear models); and that both the model (of, e.g., neutron cross section) and experimental data (including their covariance data) are perfect. These assumptions are inherent to the well-known generalized linear least squares (GLLS) minimization method commonly used for evaluations of resolved resonance region (RRR) neutron cross sections. However, these assumptions are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, non-linear models (e.g. R -matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g. discrepant data sets, discrepancies between the previous evaluation and newly measured data, or imperfect covariance data). We remove the said assumptions in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, and implement it using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Parameters of a new kind are introduced to parameterize inherent imperfections, e.g. , any discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data. These new parameters enable evaluators to quantify their expert judgement about any discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. We demonstrate the framework with an ongoing evaluation of 233 U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII library and transmission data measured by Guber, et al. , and compare the posterior parameters to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning-based Bayesian framework for high-resolution calibration of building energy models

Calibrating building energy models (BEMs), i.e., closing discrepancy between modeling and field measurements, is of significance to support its applications in building sustainability and resilience analysis. However, as being widely used in practice, current Bayesian calibration is mostly performed in low-resolution (annual or monthly), instead of high-resolution (hourly or sub-hourly), which is crucial to support emerging BEM applications, such as building-renewable energy integration (demand response) and smart control. This is attributable to the gaps in current Bayesian calibration process, including (1) difficulty in supporting reliable high-resolution calibration with over-parameterization and multi-solution issues, (2) inadequacy of meta-model to capture temporal building dynamics in high-resolution, and (3) excessive computational burdens of covariance matrix calculation in Bayesian inference. Therefore, to close these gaps, this research proposes a novel deep learning-based Bayesian calibration framework, involving pre-calibration mechanism, Long Short-Term Memory as surrogate models, and simplified covariance matrix calculation, to calibrate BEMs in high temporal resolution (i.e., hourly) with enhanced accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the case study demonstrates its effectiveness to match modeling outcomes with measurements and realize CV-RMSE of < 30 % and NMBE of < 6 % in hourly resolution, as well as a significant reduction of calibration time (by > 99 %, from > 600 h to ~ 1.5 h).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2019

Perspective on identifying and characterizing the processes controlling iron speciation and residence time at the atmosphere-ocean interface

It is well recognized that the atmospheric deposition of iron (Fe) affects ocean productivity, atmospheric CO 2 uptake, ecosystem diversity, and overall climate. Despite significant advances in measurement techniques and modeling efforts, discrepancies persist between observations and models that hinder accurate predictions of processes and their global effects. Here, we provide an assessment report on where the current state of knowledge is and where future research emphasis would have the highest impact in furthering the field of Fe atmosphere-ocean biogeochemical cycle. These results were determined through consensus reached by diverse researchers from the oceanographic and atmospheric science communities with backgrounds in laboratory and in situ measurements, modeling, and remote sensing. We discuss i) novel measurement methodologies and instrumentation that allow detection and speciation of different forms and oxidation states of Fe in deliquesced mineral aerosol, cloud/rainwater, and seawater; ii) oceanic models that treat Fe cycling with several external sources and sinks, dissolved, colloidal, particulate, inorganic, and organic ligand-complexed forms of Fe, as well as Fe in detritus and phytoplankton; and iii) atmospheric models that consider natural and anthropogenic sources of Fe, mobilization of Fe in mineral aerosols due to the dissolution of Fe-oxides and Fe-substituted aluminosilicates through proton-promoted, organic ligand-promoted, and photo-reductive mechanisms. In addition, the study identifies existing challenges and disconnects (both fundamental and methodological) such as i) inconsistencies in Fe nomenclature and the definition of bioavailable Fe between oceanic and atmospheric disciplines, and ii) the lack of characterization of the processes controlling Fe speciation and residence time at the atmosphere-ocean interface. Such challenges are undoubtedly caused by extremely low concentrations, short lifetime, and the myriad of physical, (photo)chemical, and biological processes affecting global biogeochemical cycling of Fe. However, we also argue that the historical division (separate treatment of Fe biogeochemistry in oceanic and atmospheric disciplines) and the classical funding structures (that often create obstacles for transdisciplinary collaboration) are also hampering the advancement of knowledge in the field. Finally, the study provides some specific ideas and guidelines for laboratory studies, field measurements, and modeling research required for improved characterization of global biogeochemical cycling of Fe in relationship with other trace elements and essential nutrients. In conclusion, the report is intended to aid scientists in their work related to Fe biogeochemistry as well as program managers at the relevant funding agencies

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Revisiting particle dry deposition and its role in radiative effect estimates

Wet and dry deposition remove aerosols from the atmosphere, and these processes control aerosol lifetime and thus impact climate and air quality. Dry deposition is a significant source of aerosol uncertainty in global chemical transport and climate models. Dry deposition parameterizations in most global models were developed when few particle deposition measurements were available. However, new measurement techniques have enabled more size-resolved particle flux observations. We combined literature measurements with data that we collected over a grassland in Oklahoma and a pine forest in Colorado to develop a dry deposition parameterization. We find that relative to observations, previous parameterizations overestimated deposition of the accumulation and Aitken mode particles, and underestimated in the coarse mode. These systematic differences in observed and modeled accumulation mode particle deposition velocities are as large as an order of magnitude over terrestrial ecosystems. As accumulation mode particles form most of the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that influence the indirect radiative effect, this model-measurement discrepancy in dry deposition alters modeled CCN and radiative forcing. We present a revised observationally driven parameterization for regional and global aerosol models. Using this revised dry deposition scheme in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-Chem chemical transport model, we find that global surface accumulation-mode number concentrations increase by 62% and enhance the global combined anthropogenic and natural aerosol indirect effect by −0.63 W m −2 . Our observationally constrained approach should reduce the uncertainty of particle dry deposition in global chemical transport models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Analytical models of hydrogen transport in graphite

The importance of graphite-hydrogen chemical reactions to fusion, fission, and hydrogen storage applications, combined with the rapidly evolving knowledge on the underlying mechanisms, has led to the development of multiple models to describe hydrogen transport in graphite. Significant differences exist among these models, resulting from discrepancies in the modeling assumptions, intended degree of fidelity, and conditions of applicability. This paper attempts at reconciling these apparent differences by providing a comprehensive description of the constitutive equations governing hydrogen transport in graphite at high-temperature, identifying outstanding gaps in knowledge, illustrating how these different models approach them, and proposing alternative analytical formulations grounded on experimental results from hydrogen-graphite studies. Governing equations, closing relations, and simplifying assumptions are discussed for hydrogen transport at the inter-granular and intra-granular level, accompanied by compiled experimental data and illustrated energy diagrams associated to the proposed transport mechanisms. Analytical formulations are provided to reproduce competing hypotheses on the mechanisms, supporting the development of a range of computational models that can enable resolution of outstanding knowledge gaps through comparative testing against experimental data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations

Abstract This study assesses the effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) and transient climate response (TCR) derived from global energy budget constraints within historical simulations of eight CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs). These calculations are enabled by use of the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) simulations, which permit accurate quantification of the radiative forcing. Long‐term historical energy budget constraints generally underestimate EffCS from CO 2 quadrupling and TCR from CO 2 ramping, owing to changes in radiative feedbacks and changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency. Atmospheric GCMs forced by observed warming patterns produce lower values of EffCS that are more in line with those inferred from observed historical energy budget changes. The differences in the EffCS estimates from historical energy budget constraints of models and observations are traced to discrepancies between modeled and observed historical surface warming patterns.

Dong, Yue↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of the sound velocity and Grüneisen parameter of polystyrene at inertial confinement fusion conditions

The principal Hugoniot, sound velocity, and Grüneisen parameter of polystyrene were measured at conditions relevant to shocks in inertial confinement fusion implosions, from 100 to 1000 GPa. The sound velocity is in good agreement with quantum molecular dynamics calculations and all tabular equation of state models at pressures below 200 GPa. Above 200 GPa, the experimental results agree with two of the examined tables, but do not agree with the most recent table developed for design of ICF experiments. The Grüneisen parameter increases with density below ~3.1 g/cm 3 and approaches the asymptotic value for an ideal gas after complete dissociation. This behavior is in good agreement with quantum molecular dynamics results and previous work but is not represented by any of the tabular models. Finally, the discrepancy between tabular models and experimental measurement of the sound velocity and Grüneisen parameter is sufficient to impact simulations of ICF experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian mixture model approach to quantifying the empirical nuclear saturation point

The equation of state (EOS) in the limit of infinite symmetric nuclear matter exhibits an equilibrium density, $n_0 \approx 0.16 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$, at which the pressure vanishes and the energy per particle attains its minimum, $E_0 \approx -16 \, \mathrm{MeV}$. Although not directly measurable, the nuclear saturation point $(n_0,E_0)$ can be extrapolated by density functional theory (DFT), providing tight constraints for microscopic interactions derived from chiral effective field theory (EFT). However, when considering several DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ from Skyrme and Relativistic Mean Field (RMF) models together, a discrepancy between these model classes emerges at high confidence levels that each model prediction's uncertainty cannot explain. How can we leverage these DFT constraints to rigorously benchmark nuclear saturation properties of chiral interactions? To address this question, we present a Bayesian mixture model that combines multiple DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ using an efficient conjugate prior approach. The inferred posterior distribution for the saturation point's mean and covariance matrix follows a Normal-inverse-Wishart class, resulting in posterior predictives in the form of correlated, bivariate $t$-distributions. The DFT uncertainty reports are then used to mix these posteriors using an ordinary Monte Carlo approach. At the 95\% credibility level, we estimate $n_0 \approx 0.157 \pm 0.010 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$ and $E_0 \approx -15.97 \pm 0.40 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ for the marginal (univariate) $t$-distributions. Combined with chiral EFT calculations of the pure neutron matter EOS, we obtain bivariate normal distributions for the nuclear symmetry energy and its slope parameter evaluated at $n_0$: $S_v \approx 32.0 \pm 1.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ and $L\approx 52.6\pm 8.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ (95\%), respectively. Furthermore, our Bayesian framework is publicly available, so practitioners can readily use and extend our results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Core-corona hadronization model and muon puzzle in extensive air showers

The discrepancy between models and measurements concerning the muon content in air showers produced by ultra-high energy cosmic rays, the so-called muon puzzle, remains unsolved. String fragmentation models currently used in hadronic interactions fail to reproduce the observations, while recent measurements at the LHC hint towards the existence of production mechanisms, such as collective statistical hadronization, which lead to an increase in the muon production after a hadronic interaction. The core-corona model of heavy ions implements both production mechanisms, where the large-density region of interaction (core) hadronizes statistically, while the low-density (corona) hadronizes following string fragmentation. In this contribution, we present a modification of the CONEX framework to implement the core-corona model in air shower simulations. We demonstrate a significant impact of the core effect, as observed at the LHC, on the muon content in air showers produced by ultra-high energy cosmic rays.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Constraining long‐term model predictions for woody growth using tropical tree rings

The strength and persistence of the tropical carbon sink hinges on the long-term responses of woody growth to climatic variations and increasing CO 2 . However, the sensitivity of tropical woody growth to these environmental changes is poorly understood, leading to large uncertainties in growth predictions. Here, we used tree ring records from a Southeast Asian tropical forest to constrain ED2.2-hydro, a terrestrial biosphere model with explicit vegetation demography. Specifically, we assessed individual-level woody growth responses to historical climate variability and increases in atmospheric CO 2 (C a ). When forced with historical C a , ED2.2-hydro reproduced the magnitude of increases in intercellular CO 2 concentration (a major determinant of photosynthesis) estimated from tree ring carbon isotope records. In contrast, simulated growth trends were considerably larger than those obtained from tree rings, suggesting that woody biomass production efficiency (WBPE = woody biomass production:gross primary productivity) was overestimated by the model. The estimated WBPE decline under increasing C a based on model-data discrepancy was comparable to or stronger than (depending on tree species and size) the observed WBPE changes from a multi-year mature-forest CO 2 fertilization experiment. In addition, we found that ED2.2-hydro generally overestimated climatic sensitivity of woody growth, especially for late-successional plant functional types. The model-data discrepancy in growth sensitivity to climate was likely caused by underestimating WBPE in hot and dry years due to commonly used model assumptions on carbon use efficiency and allocation. To our knowledge, this is the first study to constrain model predictions of individual tree-level growth sensitivity to C a and climate against tropical tree-ring data. Our results suggest that improving model processes related to WBPE is crucial to obtain better predictions of tropical forest responses to droughts and increasing C a . Finally, more accurate parameterization of WBPE will likely reduce the stimulation of woody growth by C a rise predicted by biosphere models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Investigating the Tropospheric Chemistry of Acetic Acid Using the Global 3‐D Chemistry Transport Model, STOCHEM‐CRI

Abstract Acetic acid (CH 3 COOH) is one of the most abundant carboxylic acids in the troposphere. In the study, the tropospheric chemistry of CH 3 COOH is investigated using the 3‐D global chemistry transport model, STOCHEM‐CRI. The highest mixing ratios of surface CH 3 COOH are found in the tropics by as much as 1.6 ppb in South America. The model predicts the seasonality of CH 3 COOH reasonably well and correlates with some surface and flight measurement sites, but the model drastically underpredicts levels in urban and midlatitudinal regions. The possible reasons for the underprediction are discussed. The simulations show that the lifetime and global burden of CH 3 COOH are 1.6–1.8 days and 0.45–0.61 Tg, respectively. The reactions of the peroxyacetyl radical (CH 3 CO 3 ) with the hydroperoxyl radical (HO 2 ) and other organic peroxy radicals (RO 2 ) are found to be the principal sources of tropospheric CH 3 COOH in the model, but the model‐measurement discrepancies suggest the possible unknown or underestimated sources which can contribute large fractions of the CH 3 COOH burden. The major sinks of CH 3 COOH in the troposphere are wet deposition, dry deposition, and OH loss. However, the reaction of CH 3 COOH with Criegee intermediates is proposed to be a potentially significant chemical loss process of tropospheric CH 3 COOH that has not been previously accounted for in global modeling studies. Inclusion of this loss process reduces the tropospheric CH 3 COOH level significantly which can give even larger discrepancies between model and measurement data, suggesting that the emissions inventory and the chemical production sources of CH 3 COOH are underpredicted even more so in current global models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2017

Iron and nickel isotope compositions of presolar silicon carbide grains from supernovae

Here we report the carbon, silicon, iron, and nickel isotope compositions of twenty-five presolar SiC grains of mostly supernova (SN) origin. The iron and nickel isotope compositions were measured with the new Chicago Instrument for Laser Ionization, CHILI, which allows the analysis of all iron and nickel isotopes without the isobaric interferences that plagued previous measurements with the NanoSIMS. Despite terrestrial iron and nickel contamination, significant isotopic anomalies in 54 Fe/ 56 Fe, 57 Fe/ 56 Fe, 60 Ni/ 58 Ni, 61 Ni/ 58 Ni, 62 Ni/ 58 Ni, and 64 Ni/ 58 Ni were detected in nine SN grains (of type X). Combined multi-isotope data of three grains with the largest nickel isotope anomalies (>100% or <-100% in at least one isotope ratio, when expressed as deviation from the solar value) are compared with the predictions of two SN models, one with and one without hydrogen ingestion in the He shell prior to SN explosion. One grain's carbon-silicon-iron-nickel isotope composition is consistent with the prediction of the model without hydrogen ingestion, whereas the other two grains' isotope anomalies could not be reproduced using either SN models. The discrepancies between the measured isotope compositions and model predictions may indicate element fractionation in the SN ejecta prior to or during grain condensation, and reiterate the need for three-dimensional SN models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cosmogenic neutron production in water at SNO+

Accurate measurement of the cosmogenic muon-induced neutron yield is crucial for constraining a significant background in a wide range of low-energy physics searches. Although previous underground experiments have measured this yield across various cosmogenic muon energies, SNO+ is uniquely positioned due to its exposure to one of the highest average cosmogenic muon energies at 364 GeV. Using ultrapure water, we have determined a neutron yield of 𝑌 𝑛 = (3.3⁢8$^{+0.23}_{−0.30}$) × 10 −4 cm 2 g −1 𝜇 −1 at SNO+. Comparison with simulations demonstrates clear agreement with the FLUKA neutron production model, highlighting discrepancies with the widely used GEANT 4 model. Furthermore, this measurement reveals a lower cosmogenic neutron yield than that observed by the SNO experiment, which used heavy water under identical muon flux conditions. This result provides new evidence that nuclear structure and target material composition significantly influence neutron production by cosmogenic muons, offering fresh insight with important implications for the design and background modeling of future underground experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗